United States Senate elections, 2012

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2012 U.S. Senate Elections

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Election Date
November 6, 2012

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Election Results

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U.S. Senate Elections by State
Arizona • California • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Hawaii • Indiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Dakota • Ohio • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

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U.S. House Elections by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

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Elections Information
Election Dates • Voting in Primaries •
Voting on November 6, 2012 •
Poll Opening and Closing Times

## Contents

* 1 Partisan breakdown
* 2 Margin of victory
* 3 Retiring incumbents
* 4 Primary
* 5 State-by-state breakdown
* 6 Campaign finance
* 6.1 October 2012
* 7 Candidates by state
* 8 Race ratings
* 8.1 Cook Political Report
* 8.1.1 Changes by month
* 8.2 Sabato Crystal Ball
* 9 See also
* 10 External links
* 11 Footnotes

Elections to the U.S. Senate were held on November 6, 2012. A total of 33 of the 100 seats were up for election with the addition of special elections to fill vacancies that occurred in the 112th United States Congress.

Nate Silver of the New York Times called the Senate battle a tossup for partisan control.[1] An October 2012 article in The Hill predicted both parties had an equal opportunity at holding control of the Senate after the November election.[2] Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report wrote in October 2012 that the Senate race "couldn't be more volatile."[3] According to The Washington Post, more than half of the 33 races were expected to be competitive which was "more than any recent election."[4]

The Democratic Party successfully defended 22 of 23 seats on election night -- the most held by either party since 1964.[5] With Republican candidates winning only eight seats, this was the worst performance by a major party since the 1950s.[6]

## Partisan breakdown[edit]

U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown

Party  | As of November 2012  | After the 2012 Election
| Democratic Party | 51 | 53
| Republican Party | 47  | 45
| Independent  | 2  | 2
Total |  100 |  100

The 33 Class 1 U.S. Senate seats were up for election in 2012. Of those 33 seats, 23 were previously held by Democrats and 10 by Republican senators. Thus, Democrats needed to win 21 seats to retain their majority while the GOP needed to win 14 seats to win back the chamber.

Overall, Republicans needed a net gain of four seats on election night to wrest control of the chamber. According to Guy Cecil, executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, "When the cycle started no one gave Democrats a shot a holding the majority." Rob Jesmer, executive director of the Republican Senatorial Committee was hopeful about Republican chances. "There's very good movement across the board," he said.[7]

## Margin of victory[edit]

There were a total of 33 seats up for election in 2012. The following table shows the margin of victory for each race winner, which is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the top-two vote getters. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100%. Some general facts:

* The fewest votes were in Wyoming, with only 244,445 total votes.
* The most votes were in California, with 12,578,511
* The average margin of victory was 20 percent.
* The smallest margin of victory, where Democrat Heidi Heitkamp defeated Rick Berg (R) by 0.9 percent.
* The largest margin of victory was in Wyoming, where Republican John Barrasso defeated Tim Chesnut (D) by 54.1%
* 11 races had a margin of victory of less than 10 percent. Of those 11 races, 9 were Democratic winners while 2 were Republican.

Margin of Victory in 2012 United States Senate Races

State | Winner | Margin of Victory | Total Votes | Top Opponent
North Dakota |  Heidi Heitkamp | 0.9% | 319,738 | Rick Berg
Nevada |  Dean Heller | 1.2% | 997,805 | Shelley Berkely
Arizona |  Jeff Flake | 3% | 2,243,422 | Richard Carmona
Montana |  Jon Tester | 3.7% | 486,066 | Denny Rehberg
Wisconsin |  Tammy Baldwin | 5.6% | 2,999,757 | Tommy Thompson
New Mexico |  Martin Heinrich | 5.7% | 775,176 | Heather Wilson
Indiana |  Joe Donnelly | 5.8% | 2,560,102 | Richard Mourdock
Virginia |  Timothy M. Kaine | 5.9% | 3,802,196 | George F. Allen
Ohio |  Sherrod Brown | 6% | 5,449,018 | Josh Mandel
Massachusetts |  Elizabeth Warren | 7.5% | 3,184,196 | Scott Brown
Pennsylvania |  Bob Casey, Jr. | 9.1% | 5,627,422 | Tom Smith
Connecticut |  Christopher Murphy | 12.1% | 1,503,168 | Linda McMahon
Florida |  Bill Nelson | 13% | 8,189,946 | Connie Mack
Nebraska |  Deb Fischer | 15.5% | 788,572 | Bob Kerrey
Missouri |  Claire McCaskill | 15.7% | 2,725,752 | Todd Akin
Texas |  Ted Cruz | 15.8% | 7,864,822 | Paul Sadler
Mississippi |  Roger Wicker | 16.6% | 1,241,568 | Albert N. Gore, Jr.
New Jersey |  Robert Menendez | 19.5% | 3,366,604 | Joe Kyrillos
Michigan |  Debbie Stabenow | 20.8% | 4,652,849 | Pete Hoekstra
Washington |  Maria Cantwell | 20.9% | 3,069,417 | Michael Baumgartner
West Virginia |  Joe Manchin III | 23.9% | 647,521 | John R. Raese
Hawaii |  Mazie Hirono | 24.8% | 437,082 | Linda Lingle
California |  Dianne Feinstein | 25% | 12,578,511 | Elizabeth Emken
Maryland |  Ben Cardin | 29.7% | 2,630,840 | Dan Bongino
Rhode Island |  Sheldon Whitehouse | 29.8% | 418,189 | B. Barrett Hinckley, III
Minnesota |  Amy Klobuchar | 34.7% | 2,843,207 | Kurt Bills
Tennessee |  Bob Corker | 34.7% | 2,304,961 | Mark E. Clayton
Utah |  Orrin G. Hatch | 35.6% | 999,728 | Scott Howell
Delaware |  Thomas Carper | 37.9% | 379,347 | Kevin Wade
Maine |  Angus King | 38.3% | 724,720 | Cynthia Dill
New York |  Kirsten Gillibrand | 42.9% | 7,116,628 | Wendy Long
Vermont |  Bernie Sanders | 46.1% | 292,510 | John MacGovern
Wyoming |  John Barrasso | 54.1% | 244,445 | Tim Chesnut

## Retiring incumbents[edit]

Ballotpedia staff counted 10 total current incumbents who did not run for re-election in the 2012 elections.

* 5 Democrats
* 4 Republicans
* 1 Independents

Name | Party | State

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Jon Kyl |  Republican | Arizona
Joe Lieberman |  Nonpartisan | Connecticut
Daniel Akaka |  Democratic | Hawaii
Olympia Snowe |  Republican | Maine
Ben Nelson |  Democratic | Nebraska
Jeff Bingaman |  Democratic | New Mexico
Kent Conrad |  Democratic | North Dakota
Kay Bailey Hutchison |  Republican | Texas
Jim Webb |  Democratic | Virginia
Herb Kohl |  Democratic | Wisconsin

## Primary[edit]

The following lists displays the dates that each state held United States Senate primaries in 2012.

This map displays the month of each
Congressional primary in 2012

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March

* Ohio, March 6
* Alabama, March 13
* Mississippi, March 13
* Illinois, March 20

April

* Maryland, April 3
* Pennsylvania, April 24

May

* Indiana, May 8
* North Carolina, May 8
* West Virginia, May 8
* Idaho, May 15
* Nebraska, May 15
* Oregon, May 15
* Arkansas, May 22
* Kentucky, May 22
* Texas, May 29

June

* California, June 5
* Iowa, June 5
* Montana, June 5
* New Jersey, June 5
* New Mexico, June 5
* South Dakota, June 5
* Maine, June 12
* Nevada, June 12
* North Dakota, June 12
* South Carolina, June 12
* Virginia, June 12
* Oklahoma, June 26
* New York, June 26
* Utah, June 26
* Colorado, June 26

July

* Georgia, July 31

August

* Tennessee, August 2
* Kansas, August 7
* Michigan, August 7
* Missouri, August 7
* Washington, August 7
* Hawaii, August 11
* Connecticut, August 14
* Florida, August 14
* Minnesota, August 14
* Wyoming, August 21
* Alaska, August 28
* Arizona, August 28
* Vermont, August 28

September

* Massachusetts, September 6
* Delaware, September 11
* New Hampshire, September 11
* Rhode Island, September 11

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## State-by-state breakdown[edit]

The following table displays the 33 seats that were up for election, including the winners.

United States Senate Elections Results in 2012

State  | Incumbent  | Incumbent Party  | Incumbent Running?  | 2012 Winner  | Partisan switch?
Arizona | Jon Kyl |  Republican | No |  Jeff Flake | No
California | Dianne Feinstein |  Democratic | Yes |  Dianne Feinstein | No
Connecticut | Joe Lieberman |  Nonpartisan | No |  Chris Murphy | Yes
Delaware | Tom Carper |  Democratic | Yes |  Tom Carper | No
Florida | Bill Nelson |  Democratic | Yes |  Bill Nelson | No
Hawaii | Daniel Akaka |  Democratic | No |  Mazie Hirono | No
Indiana | Richard Lugar |  Republican | Yes |  Joe Donnelly | Yes
Maine | Olympia Snowe |  Republican | Yes |  Angus King (I) | Yes
Maryland | Ben Cardin |  Democratic | Yes |  Ben Cardin | No
Massachusetts | Scott Brown |  Republican | Yes |  Elizabeth Warren | Yes
Michigan | Debbie Stabenow |  Democratic | Yes |  Debbie Stabenow | No
Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar |  Democratic | Yes |  Amy Klobuchar | No
Mississippi | Roger Wicker |  Republican | Yes |  Roger Wicker | No
Missouri | Claire McCaskill |  Democratic | Yes |  Claire McCaskill | No
Montana | Jon Tester |  Democratic | Yes |  Jon Tester | No
Nebraska | Ben Nelson |  Democratic | No |  Deb Fischer | Yes
Nevada | Dean Heller |  Republican | Yes |  Dean Heller | No
New Jersey | Bob Menendez |  Democratic | Yes |  Bob Menendez | No
New Mexico | Jeff Bingaman |  Democratic | No |  Martin Heinrich | No
New York | Kirsten Gillibrand |  Democratic | Yes |  Kirsten Gillibrand | No
North Dakota | Kent Conrad |  Democratic | No |  Heidi Heitkamp | No
Ohio | Sherrod Brown |  Democratic | Yes |  Sherrod Brown | No
Pennsylvania | Bob Casey Jr. |  Democratic | Yes |  Bob Casey Jr. | No
Rhode Island | Sheldon Whitehouse |  Democratic | Yes |  Sheldon Whitehouse | No
Tennessee | Bob Corker |  Republican | Yes |  Bob Corker | No
Texas | Kay Bailey Hutchison |  Republican | No |  Ted Cruz | No
Utah | Orrin Hatch |  Republican | Yes |  Orrin Hatch | No
Vermont | Bernie Sanders |  Nonpartisan | Yes |  Bernie Sanders | No
Virginia | Jim Webb |  Democratic | No |  Tim Kaine | No
Washington | Maria Cantwell |  Democratic | Yes |  Maria Cantwell | No
West Virginia | Joe Manchin |  Democratic | Yes |  Joe Manchin | No
Wisconsin | Herb Kohl |  Democratic | No |  Tammy Baldwin | No
Wyoming | John Barrasso |  Republican | Yes |  John Barrasso | No

## Campaign finance[edit]

Republican-leaning organizations spent $135 million on U.S. House races during the 2012 cycle while Democratic organizations spent $89 million.[8]

### October 2012[edit]

The Campaign Finance Institute released a report detailing the high levels of independent expenditures in the election cycle. From October 5-12, more than $1 million was spent by outside groups in 10 Senate races alone. Those races were:[9]

* Virginia: $4.3 million
* Wisconsin: $3.6 million
* Ohio: $3.3 million
* Montana: $1.9 million
* Florida: $1.4 million
* Connecticut: $1.4 million
* Maine: $1.2 million
* Nevada: $1.2 million
* North Dakota: $1.0 million
* Arizona: $1.0 million

Crossroads GPS released seven ads over the course of one week at a cost of $5 million. The states and costs:[10]

* Nevada: $1,096,548
* Indiana: $980,046.71
* Maine: $309,266.73
* Montana: $672,795.36
* North Dakota: $214,002.60
* Virginia: $477,040.14
* Wisconsin: $1,173,169.77

Majority PAC, a super PAC supporting Senate Democrats, reported raising $10.4 million in September and an additional $9.7 million through the middle of October.[11]

## Candidates by state[edit]

See also: List of candidates running in U.S. Congress elections, 2012

For a list of all candidates who ran for office by state, see this page.

## Race ratings[edit]

### Cook Political Report[edit]

Each month the Cook Political Report released race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There were seven possible designations:[12]

Solid Democratic
Likely Democratic
Lean Democratic

Tossup

Lean Republican
Likely Republican
Solid Republican

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Cook Political Report Race Rating -- U.S. Senate

Month  | Solid D  | Likely D  | Lean D  | Tossup  | Lean R  | Likely R  | Solid R
November 1, 2012[13] | 8  | 4  | 5  | 10  | 1  | 0  | 5
October 4, 2012[14] | 8  | 4  | 5  | 10  | 0  | 1  | 5
September 13, 2012[15] | 8  | 4  | 4  | 10  | 1  | 1  | 5
August 21, 2012[16] | 8  | 5  | 3  | 9  | 1  | 2  | 5
July 12, 2012[17] | 8  | 4  | 3  | 10  | 1  | 2  | 5
May 31, 2012[18] | 8  | 4  | 3  | 10  | 1  | 2  | 5
May 10, 2012[19] | 8  | 4  | 3  | 10  | 1  | 2  | 5
March 22, 2012[20] | 8  | 4  | 3  | 10  | 0  | 3  | 5
March 1, 2012[21] | 8  | 4  | 3  | 10  | 0  | 3  | 5
January 26, 2012[22] | 8  | 4  | 3  | 9  | 0  | 4  | 5
December 22, 2011[23] | 8  | 5  | 2  | 10  | 0  | 3  | 5
December 1, 2011[24] | 8  | 5  | 2  | 10  | 0  | 4  | 4

#### Changes by month[edit]

October 2012

* From September 13, 2012, to November 1, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
* Pennsylvania went from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
* Michigan went from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
* Hawaii went from Tossup to Lean Democrat
* Arizona went from Lean Republican to Tossup
* Nebraska went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

September 2012

* From August 31, 2012, to September 13, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
* New Mexico went from Tossup to Lean Democrat.
* Connecticut went from Likely Democrat to Tossup
* Indiana went from Lean Republican to Tossup
* Arizona went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

August 2012

* From July 1, 2012, to August 31, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following state:
* Missouri went from Tossup to Likely Democrat.

July 2012

* None

May 2012

* From March 1, 2012, to May 31, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
* Indiana went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
* New Jersey went from Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat.
* Washington went from Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat.

March 2012

* From January 26, 2012, to March 1, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following state:
* Maine went from Likely Republican to Tossup.

January 2012

* From December 22, 2011, to January 26, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
* Michigan went from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic.
* Nebraska went from Tossup to Likely Republican.

December 2011

* From December 1, 2011, to December 22, 2011, Cook's race ratings changed in the following state:
* Texas went from Likely Republican to Strong Republican.

### Sabato Crystal Ball[edit]

Each month the Crystal Ball released race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There were seven possible designations:[25]

Solid Democratic
Likely Democratic
Lean Democratic

Tossup

Lean Republican
Likely Republican
Solid Republican

|
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Sabato's Crystal Ball Race Rating -- U.S. Senate

Month  | Solid D  | Likely D  | Lean D  | Tossup  | Lean R  | Likely R  | Solid R
August 12, 2012[26] | 9  | 5  | 3  | 5  | 5  | 1  | 5
April 5, 2012[27] | 8  | 5  | 3  | 8  | 2  | 2  | 5
December 1, 2011[28] | 8  | 5  | 2  | 8  | 2  | 3  | 5

## See also[edit]

* United States House of Representatives elections, 2012

## External links[edit]

* Politics1.com, "Director of 2012 U.S. Senate Candidates"
* 270towin.com, "2012 Senate Election"
* Roll Call, "2012 Race Rating Map"
* Public Policy Polling, "U.S. Senate 2012"
* Rasmussen Reports, "2012 Senate Balance of Power"
* Roll Call, "Casualty List: 112th Congress
* Open Secrets, "Congressional Races"

## Footnotes[edit]

1. ↑ New York Times, "In Senate Races, Politics Are Local Again," August 15, 2012
2. ↑ The Hill, "Opinion: Republicans facing longer odds in bid to gain Senate control," October 8, 2012
3. ↑ National Journal, "Mitt Romney Breaks His Losing Streak," October 4, 2012
4. ↑ Washington Post, "The expanding Congressional battlefield," accessed October 10, 2012
5. ↑ Bloomberg, "Senate Democrats: Best Defensive Record Since 1964 — Held 22 of 23," November 10, 2012
6. ↑ Salon.com, "The House GOP can’t be beat: It’s worse than gerrymandering," January 13, 2013
7. ↑ Star Tribune, "Voter ticket-splitting in half-dozen states could decide whether Dems keep Senate or GOP wins," October 13, 2012 (dead link)
8. ↑ Huffington Post, "Democratic Super PACs Trim Conservative Advantage In Congressional Races," November 10, 2012
9. ↑ Campaign Finance Institute, "10 Senate, 3 House Races Top $1 Million in Spending Over the Past 7 Days Alone," October 12, 2012
10. ↑ Roll Call, "Crossroads GPS Announces $5 million ad buy in seven states," October 16, 2012
11. ↑ The New York Times, "With Growing Willingness, Donors Come to Aid of Democratic ‘Super PACs’," October 19, 2012
12. ↑ Cook Political Report "Our Accuracy," accessed December 12, 2011
13. ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," November 1, 2012
14. ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 19, 2012
15. ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 19, 2012
16. ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," August 23, 2012
17. ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," July 12, 2012
18. ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 31, 2012
19. ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 10, 2012
20. ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 22, 2012
21. ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 1, 2012
22. ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," January 26, 2012
23. ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 22, 2011
24. ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011
25. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Our Accuracy," accessed December 12, 2011 (dead link)
26. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2012 Senate Ratings," August 12, 2012
27. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2012 Senate Ratings," April 5, 2012
28. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011

v • e

2012 Elections to the United States Congress

U.S. Senate elections|

Arizona • California • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Hawaii • Indiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Dakota • Ohio • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

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U.S. House elections|

Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

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Special elections|

Oregon's 1st House District • Arizona's 8th House District • Michigan's 11th District • Washington's 1st District

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Election information|

List of candidates running for election • List of congressional challengers • General Election Winners • Candidates Defeated in General Election • Congressional incumbents not running for re-election • Filing deadlines and primary dates • Elected Officials Running for a Different office • Contested Primaries Analysis • Official Lists of Candidates • Election Results

* * *

Super PACs/Organizations|

American Bridge 21st Century • Campaign for Primary Accountability • Club for Growth Action • Congressional Leadership Fund • Cooperative of American Physicians IE Committee • Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee • FreedomWorks for America • House Majority PAC • Majority PAC • NEA Advocacy Fund • National Republican Congressional Committee