Daily Brew: October 2, 2020

## October 2, 2020[edit]

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|  | State government trifectas that are vulnerable in 2020 + continues our 50 states in 25 days series with Nebraska and Oregon |

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| Welcome to the Friday, October 2, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Democrats, Republicans each defending eight vulnerable trifectas this year
2. Candidate Connection spotlight
3. Explore Nebraska elections
4. Explore Oregon elections

We have a lot we want to tell you about today - let's get started!

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# Democrats, Republicans each defending eight vulnerable trifectas this year

Sixteen state trifectas are vulnerable in 2020, according to Ballotpedia’s trifecta vulnerability rating system. Both major parties will be defending eight trifectas.

A state government trifecta occurs when one party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. There are currently 21 Republican trifectas and 15 Democratic trifectas. The remaining 14 states have divided governments.

Ballotpedia calculates the chances of trifectas breaking and forming by assessing the chances of each individual component changing control. We assess gubernatorial races with ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. We assess state legislatures according to the absolute number of seats up for election and the proportion of seats that would need to flip for partisan control to change. Both chambers in a state's legislature are evaluated individually.

Ballotpedia classifies the Democratic trifectas in five states as moderately vulnerable—Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Nevada, and Oregon. Three Democratic trifectas—Delaware, Illinois, and New Mexico—are considered somewhat vulnerable.

The Republican trifecta in Florida is the only trifecta Ballotpedia rated as highly vulnerable this year. Four Republican trifectas—in Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, and West Virginia are classified as moderately vulnerable. The Republican trifectas in Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas are somewhat vulnerable.

Ballotpedia also assessed the chances of new trifectas forming in states that are currently under divided government. States that qualified as a possible Democratic trifecta pickup according to our methodology are Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Republicans have pickup chances in Alaska and New Hampshire. In Montana and North Carolina, both parties qualify for a pickup opportunity.

The chart below displays the number of trifectas by year.

Learn more

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## Candidate Connection spotlight

Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey asks people who are running for office questions about what they stand for, what’s important to them, and what they want to do if elected. We designed it to help voters gain insights about their candidates as people and learn how each feels about various topics.

We invite all candidates with a profile on Ballotpedia to complete our survey. On Fridays, we’ve been including selected responses we’ve received this cycle to certain questions.

Here’s a look at the last three survey questions we've highlighted:

* What was the last song that got stuck in your head?
* What areas of public policy are you personally passionate about?
* Who do you look up to? Whose example would you like to follow, and why?

This week’s question is: What legacy would you like to leave? We received 1,705 responses so far, and here are some selected ones:

“The legacy I would like to leave for my children and this nation is that we all have a debt to repay to all those who have come before us. We have an obligation to live well in this nation. We stand on the shoulders of giants, whom we can only repay by living a worthy life.”

-Kathy Barnette, Republican candidate for Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District

“I'd like to leave a legacy of service that is selfless and effective; to redefine what public service means and have been a part of meaningful change that helps improve the lives of those around me.”

-Lindsay Drew, Democratic candidate for Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 106

“I will like to be remembered as someone who was fair, compassionate and was willing to work across the aisle to get things done. I want to be remembered as someone who put in more action than talk.”

-Yomi Faparusi, Independent candidate for the U.S. Senate from Tennessee

If a candidate hasn't yet responded to our survey, send them this link and ask them to complete it. We’ll include their responses on their profile so we can all learn more about them.

Learn more→

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## Explore Nebraska elections

Let’s finish the first week of our 50 States in 25 Days series, where we feature what to know about two states in each Brew issue leading up to Nov. 3. Here are the states we've highlighted so far:

* Alabama & Arkansas
* California & Texas
* North Carolina & Mississippi
* Illinois & Ohio

We're going in order of when states held their primaries, so up next are Nebraska and Oregon.

#### On the ballot in Nebraska

At the federal level, Nebraska voters will elect five presidential electors, one U.S. Senator, and three U.S. Representatives. The office of Nebraska Public Service Commissioner, two seats on the state board of regents, and four seats on the state board of education are up for election. The sole chamber of the state legislature is on the ballot with 25 out of 49 state Senate seats up for election. Two seats on the state supreme court and two intermediate appellate court seats are on the ballot. Voters will also decide on six statewide ballot measures. Ballotpedia is covering local elections in two counties, one city, and seven school districts.

#### Partisan balance in Nebraska

* In 2016, Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) 59% to 34% in Nebraska. Lyndon Johnson (D) was the last Democrat to win Nebraska in 1964.
* One of Nebraska’s 93 counties—Thurston County—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in 2016.
* Both of Nebraska’s U.S. Senators—Ben Sasse and Deb Fischer—are Republicans.
* Republicans represent all three of the state's U.S. House districts.
* Nebraska’s governor, attorney general, and secretary of state are all Republicans, meaning it is one of 19 states with a Republican triplex. It has held this status since 1999.
* Republicans hold a 30-18 majority in the state Senate, which constitutes Nebraska’s state legislature. Because the governor is also a Republican, Nebraska is one of 21 states with a Republican trifecta. Republicans gained a trifecta when they won a majority in the state Senate and a Republican was elected governor.

#### Battleground races in Nebraska

* Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District: Incumbent Rep. Don Bacon (R), Kara Eastman (D), and Tyler Schaeffer (L) are running in the general election for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. This will be the second time Bacon and Eastman meet in a general election. In 2018, Bacon defeated Eastman, 51%-49%.

#### Ballot measures in Nebraska

* Nebraska voters will vote on six ballot measures on Nov. 3: four citizen initiatives and two legislative referrals.
* Initiative 428 would limit the total annual interest rate that payday lenders can charge to 36%.
* Initiatives 429, 430, and 431 would together allow, regulate, and tax gambling at licensed racetracks.
* Amendment 1 would repeal language in the state constitution allowing slavery or involuntary servitude as a punishment for a crime.

#### Voting in Nebraska

* In response to the coronavirus pandemic, Nebraska is automatically sending early/mail-in ballot applications to all eligible voters in the general election.
* Early/mail-in ballots do not need to be notarized or have a witness signature.
* Early/mail-in ballots can be returned in person or by mail. If returned in person, ballots must be received by 8 p.m. Central Time, 7 p.m. Mountain Time, on Nov. 3. Mail-in ballots must be received no later than Nov. 3. You can check the status of your early/mail-in ballot here.
* Nebraska election law states that early/mail-in ballots can be counted starting on Nov. 2 (“twenty-four hours before the opening of the polls”).
* In 2018, mail-in ballots were 23.6% of the total votes cast.
* Polls in Nebraska will be open from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. for parts of the state in the Central time zone and 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. for parts in the Mountain time zone.
* In most cases, voters in Nebraska are not required to present ID at the polls in order to vote. Certain first-time voters may be required to present ID. For more information, click here.

Learn more→

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## Explore Oregon elections

#### On the ballot in Oregon

At the federal level, Oregon voters will elect seven presidential electors, one U.S. senator, and five U.S. representatives. The offices of secretary of state, treasurer, and attorney general are up for election. Both chambers of the state legislature are on the ballot, with 16 out of 30 seats up in the state Senate and all 60 state House districts. One special state legislative race is on the ballot. Three seats on the state supreme court and four intermediate appellate court seats are on the ballot. Voters will also decide on four statewide ballot measures. Ballotpedia is covering local elections in Portland and Multnomah County.

#### Partisan balance in Oregon

* In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) defeated Donald Trump (R) in Oregon, 51%—39%. Gary Johnson (L) received 5% and Jill Stein (G) 3%. The Democratic nominee has won Oregon in each presidential election since 1988.
* Oregon has two Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, then voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016.
* Both of Oregon's U.S. Senators—Jeff Merkley and Ron Wyden—are Democrats.
* Democrats represent four of the state's U.S. House districts and Republicans represent one.
* Oregon's governor and attorney general are Democrats, and its secretary of state is a Republican. That means the state has divided triplex control, a status it has held since 2017. Oregon is one of 14 states with divided triplex control.
* Democrats have an 18-12 majority in the state Senate and a 38-22 majority in the state House. Since Oregon's governor is a Democrat, it is one of 15 states with a Democratic trifecta. It has held this since Democrats won a majority in the state House in the 2012 elections.

#### Battleground races in Oregon

Here are two battleground elections in Oregon in 2020:

* Oregon Secretary of State: Shemia Fagan (D, Working Families), Kim Thatcher (R, I), Kyle Markley (L), and Nathalie Paravicini (Progressive, Pacific Green) are running. The office is open. In 2016, Dennis Richardson (R) defeated Brad Avakian (D) 47%—43%. Democrats had held the office for more than 30 years before Richardson's victory. Richardson died in office, and Gov. Kate Brown (D) appointed Bev Clarno (R) to succeed him. Oregon doesn't have a lieutenant governor. The secretary of state is first in line to succeed the governor. If Fagan wins, Democrats will gain a triplex in Oregon.
* Mayor of Portland, Oregon: Incumbent Mayor Ted Wheeler fell short of the majority vote share required to win the election outright in the May 19 primary. He received 49.3% of the vote. Sarah Iannarone placed second with 23.8%, advancing to the general election.

#### Ballot measures in Oregon

* Oregon voters will decide four statewide ballot measures on Nov. 3: two citizen initiatives and two legislative referrals.
* Measure 109 would establish a psilocybin mushroom program, and Measure 110 would decriminalize drugs and establish an addiction treatment program. Oregon would be the first state to decriminalize all drugs and legalize psilocybin if the measures are approved.
* Measure 107 would amend the state constitution to allow campaign contribution limits and require certain campaign finance disclosures.
* Measure 108 would increase cigarette taxes from $1.33 per pack to $3.33 per pack and impose a tax on nicotine inhalant delivery systems such as e-cigarettes at a rate of 65% of the wholesale price.

#### Voting in Oregon

* Oregon conducts its elections by mail.
* A completed mail-in ballot does not need to be notarized or signed by witnesses.
* Mail-in ballots can be returned in person or by mail. If returned in person, ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on Nov. 3. Mail-in ballots must be received no later than 8 p.m. on Nov. 3. Drop sites are also available. You can check the status of your mail-in ballot here.
* Oregon election law does not state when election officials can begin counting ballots but does specify that “a person may not make public the results of the tally of votes from any precinct until after 8:00 p.m. on Election Day.”

Learn more→

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