Fertility rates of conservatives vs. liberals in the United States

Donald Trump

The article The Conservative Fertility Advantage by the Institute for Family Institute indicates:

“  |  Data about fertility rates is only available for around 600 of the largest counties, thus many small, rural counties are excluded. But the relationship shown here is clear: President Trump did better in counties with higher birth rates, and the difference is fairly large, with the most pro-Biden counties having total fertility rates almost 25% lower than the most pro-Trump counties. If anything, this effect is understated, since the most pro-Trump counties were small, rural counties that usually have even higher birth rates and are excluded from this analysis. Indeed, Yi Fuxian at the University of Wisconsin showed that the relationship between voting and fertility is even more pronounced when we look at fertility rates and state voting trends...

As can be seen, the Republican fertility advantage is relatively stable across elections. It even shows up in a panel model, suggesting that as counties become more Republican, their fertility rates tend to rise relative to the national average. The use of state controls (and some robustness tests I ran in large states with many counties) suggests this effect isn’t driven by unique features of states: within Red states or Blue states, and controlling for county racial and ethnic characteristics and population densities, Republican counties have higher birth rates.

This is particularly astonishing given that Democrats perform very well in counties with many Hispanic and black voters, who have higher birth rates than non-Hispanic white Americans (and indeed, the more non-Hispanic whites in a county, the lower its birth rate in my models). The relationship is also unchanged if the sample is restricted to only very-high-density counties, such as those representing the center of major cities. In other words, the Republican “fertility advantage” does not arise from more rural counties with higher birth rates, and it exists despite the fact that much of the Democratic Party’s electoral base is among racial and ethnic groups with higher birth rates in general. The split I identify isn’t about race or urbanization or region of the country: it’s about family. Within racial- or ethnic-groups, within states or urbanized areas, the more conservative areas tend to have more babies.

In the 1970s, there was little or no difference in fertility rates between liberal and conservative women. But by the 2000s, completed fertility for liberal women had declined markedly below that of conservative women. In recent years, the gap in childbearing between young conservative and liberal women has really opened, which may portend a bigger gap in the coming years...

Before the 1990s, fertility differences by ideology were small. Women over age 45 had no difference in completed fertility, and women of all ages (but with controls for year of age) had only a small difference. There was, however, already a difference in ideology: conservative women reported a childbearing ideal about 0.12 kids higher than liberal women, which is a small, but significant, difference.

For the period after 1995, however, gaps grow. Conservative women over age 45 had about 0.25 more children on average than their liberal peers, an effect which in fact shows up throughout the age distribution once the “over 45” restriction is relaxed. The gap in fertility ideals grew larger as well.

In other words, the “family gap” between conservatives and liberals is a new phenomenon. It’s only in the last two decades that conservatives began to reap a fertility advantage. But it’s not just a fertility difference: if controls for marital status are removed, the conservative fertility advantage gets even bigger. That is, conservatives are simply more likely to be married than liberals. Thus, there is a conservative-liberal gap on marriage and separately on odds of childbearing conditional upon marital status.[1]

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## Contents

* 1 American culture war, demographics and expected tipping point after 2020
* 2 The rise of homeschooling and private religious schools
* 3 American colleges, which often indoctrinate into liberal ideology, are closing more and more due to financial problems, high tuition and lower enrollment
* 3.1 Leftist Colleges Are imploding as Conservative Colleges surge
* 4 See also
* 5 External links
* 6 Notes

## American culture war, demographics and expected tipping point after 2020[edit]

See also: Culture war and American atheism and liberal and Atheism and fertility rates

The Birkbeck College, University of London professor Eric Kaufmann wrote in his 2010 book Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? concerning America:

“  |  High evangelical fertility rates more than compensated for losses to liberal Protestant sects during the twentieth century. In recent decades, white secularism has surged, but Latino and Asian religious immigration has taken up the slack, keeping secularism at bay. Across denominations, the fertility advantage of religious fundamentalists of all colours is significant and growing. After 2020, their demographic weight will begin to tip the balance in the culture wars towards the conservative side, ramping up pressure on hot-button issues such as abortion. By the end of the century, three quarters of America may be pro-life. Their activism will leap over the borders of the 'Redeemer Nation' to evangelize the world. Already, the rise of the World Congress of Families has launched a global religious right, its arms stretching across the bloody lines of the War on Terror to embrace the entire Abrahamic family.[2] |  ”

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An unborn child in the womb. Liberals believe that the unborn child has no right to life.

## The rise of homeschooling and private religious schools[edit]

* In 2012, in the United States, there were around 1.8 million homeschool students, and in 2021, that number is expected to be above 5 million.[3]

* Christian Schools Boom in a Revolt Against Curriculum and Pandemic Rules, New York Times, October 19, 2021

## American colleges, which often indoctrinate into liberal ideology, are closing more and more due to financial problems, high tuition and lower enrollment[edit]

* U.S. College Closures: Financial Strains, Enrollment Declines, and the Rise of Online Education

* Why more and more colleges are closing down across the U.S., CNBC News, 2023

Videos:

* Colleges Across America Are Closing Their Doors (Here's Why)

* Why More And More Colleges Are Closing Down Across America, CNBC News - video, 2023

### Leftist Colleges Are imploding as Conservative Colleges surge[edit]

* Leftist Colleges Are imploding as Conservative Colleges surge

* Ultra-Liberal Colleges Are CLOSING Across the Country at an Unpreceded Rate

* HALF of ALL Ultra-Liberal Colleges Will COLLAPSE in 10 YEARS

## See also[edit]

* Russia's fertility rate
* Atheism and fertility rates

## External links[edit]

* Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections by Gordon B. Dahl, Runjing Lu, William Mullins, December 2021
* The Political Fertility Gap, ABC News, 2006

## Notes[edit]

1. ↑ The Conservative Fertility Advantage by the Institute for Family Institute
2. ↑ Why is the year 2020 a key year for Christian creationists and pro-lifers?
3. ↑ As the pandemic continues, more families turning to homeschooling, Fox News, 2021