Poisson limit theorem

Short description: Probability Theory

"Poisson theorem" redirects here. For the "Poisson's theorem" in Hamiltonian mechanics, see Poisson bracket § Constants of motion.

Comparison of the Poisson distribution (black lines) and the binomial distribution with  n = 10  (red circles),  n = 20  (blue circles),  n = 1000  (green circles). All distributions have a mean of 5\. The horizontal axis shows the number of events k. As n gets larger, the Poisson distribution becomes an increasingly better approximation for the binomial distribution with the same mean.

In probability theory, the law of rare events or Poisson limit theorem states that the Poisson distribution may be used as an approximation to the binomial distribution, under certain conditions.[1] The theorem was named after Siméon Denis Poisson (1781-1840). A generalization of this theorem is Le Cam's theorem.

For broader coverage of this topic, see Poisson distribution § Law of rare events.

## Contents

* 1 Theorem
* 2 First proof
* 2.1 Alternative proof
* 2.2 Ordinary generating functions
* 3 See also
* 4 References

## Theorem

Let pn be a sequence of real numbers in [0,1] such that the sequence npn converges to a finite limit λ. Then:

limn->∞(nk)pnk(1−pn)n−k=e−λλkk!

## First proof

Assume λ>0 (the case λ=0 is easier). Then

lim⁡n->∞(nk)pnk(1−pn)n−k=limn->∞n(n−1)(n−2)…(n−k+1)k!(λn(1+o(1)))k(1−λn(1+o(1)))n−k=limn->∞nk+O(nk−1)k!λknk(1−λn(1+o(1)))n(1−λn(1+o(1)))−k=limn->∞λkk!(1−λn(1+o(1)))n.

Since

limn->∞(1−λn(1+o(1)))n=e−λ

this leaves

(nk)pk(1−p)n−k≃λke−λk!.

### Alternative proof

Using Stirling's approximation, it can be written:

(nk)pk(1−p)n−k=n!(n−k)!k!pk(1−p)n−k≃2πn(ne)n2π(n−k)(n−ke)n−kk!pk(1−p)n−k=nn−knne−k(n−k)n−kk!pk(1−p)n−k.

Letting n->∞ and np=λ:

(nk)pk(1−p)n−k≃nnpk(1−p)n−ke−k(n−k)n−kk!=nn(λn)k(1−λn)n−ke−knn−k(1−kn)n−kk!=λk(1−λn)n−ke−k(1−kn)n−kk!≃λk(1−λn)ne−k(1−kn)nk!.

As n->∞, (1−xn)n->e−x so:

(nk)pk(1−p)n−k≃λke−λe−ke−kk!=λke−λk!

### Ordinary generating functions

It is also possible to demonstrate the theorem through the use of ordinary generating functions of the binomial distribution:

Gbin(x;p,N)≡∑k=0N[(Nk)pk(1−p)N−k]xk=[1+(x−1)p]N

by virtue of the binomial theorem. Taking the limit N->∞ while keeping the product pN≡λ constant, it can be seen:

limN->∞Gbin(x;p,N)=limN->∞[1+λ(x−1)N]N=eλ(x−1)=∑k=0∞[e−λλkk!]xk

which is the OGF for the Poisson distribution. (The second equality holds due to the definition of the exponential function.)

## See also

* De Moivre–Laplace theorem
* Le Cam's theorem

## References

1. ↑ Papoulis, Athanasios; Pillai, S. Unnikrishna. Probability, Random Variables, and Stochastic Processes (4th ed.).

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