Prediction markets in the 2024 presidential election

2024 Presidential Election
Date: November 5, 2024

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Presidential candidates
Kamala Harris (D)
Donald Trump (R) (won)
Jill Stein (G)
Chase Oliver (L)

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Battleground states • List of registered candidates • Electoral College • Prediction markets • Presidential debates • Important dates • Presidential election by state • Campaign finance • Logos and slogans • Key staffers • Vice presidential candidates • Policy positions • Ballotpedia's presidential election coverage index

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Primaries
Democratic • Republican • Green • Libertarian

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Ballotpedia's presidential election coverage
2028 • 2024 • 2020 • 2016

This page provides an overview of prediction markets relating to the 2024 presidential election. The PredictIt charts show the state of each market on PredictIt with data updated every 60 seconds, and the RealClearPolitics charts show prediction market averages updated daily. The following charts are available on this page, PredictIt.org, and RealClearPolitics.com:

* General election
* Overall Democratic primary
* Overall Republican primary

What is a prediction market?

Prediction markets allow users to purchase shares relating to the outcome of events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. For instance, an election contested between four candidates would be represented by eight separate contracts, with each contract correlating to a particular candidate winning or losing the election.

The share price in each individual forecast rises and falls based on market demand. Once the event's outcome is decided, holders of shares that correlate with the correct outcome receive a payout for each share they held.

For example, a user buys 10 shares at 20 cents each in a presidential primary saying Candidate A will win. If Candidate A wins the election, the user earns $10. If the candidate loses, the user earns no money and loses his original $2 investment.

Why do prediction markets matter?

Prediction markets can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections. Microsoft Research economist David Rothschild argued that they are better suited to the task than polls: "I can create a poll that can mimic everything about a prediction market...except markets have a way of incentivizing you to come back at 2 a.m. and update your answer."[1][2][3]

## Contents

* 1 General election markets
* 1.1 PredictIt
* 1.2 RealClearPolitics prediction market averages
* 2 Democratic presidential primary markets
* 2.1 PredictIt
* 2.2 RealClearPolitics prediction market averages
* 3 Republican presidential primary markets
* 3.1 PredictIt
* 3.2 RealClearPolitics prediction market averages
* 4 Background
* 4.1 PredictIt
* 5 Noteworthy events
* 6 See also
* 7 Footnotes

## General election markets[edit]

See also: Presidential candidates, 2024

### PredictIt[edit]

The chart below shows 2024 presidential general election open share prices over time.[4]

### RealClearPolitics prediction market averages[edit]

## Democratic presidential primary markets[edit]

See also: Democratic presidential nomination, 2024

### PredictIt[edit]

The chart below shows 2024 Democratic presidential primary open share prices over time.[5]

### RealClearPolitics prediction market averages[edit]

## Republican presidential primary markets[edit]

See also: Republican presidential nomination, 2024

### PredictIt[edit]

The chart below shows 2024 Republican presidential primary open share prices over time.[6]

### RealClearPolitics prediction market averages[edit]

## Background[edit]

### PredictIt[edit]

PredictIt was created by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, for educational purposes in 2014. U.S.-based company Aristotle International supports the project with data processing and verification services.[7][8]

The Washington Post reported that PredictIt spokesman Will Jennings said the site was accurate 70 to 80 percent of the time, although it was difficult to make a “blanket accuracy assessment, given the variety of markets." In November 2019, the site had 200,000 subscribers and 3,000 active traders each day.[9]

## Noteworthy events[edit]

On May 10, 2024, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) voted 3-2 to issue a rule proposal that would ban election betting markets.[10]

Previously, the commission announced it intended to rescind PredictIt's no-action letter on August 4, 2022, with an effective date set for February 2023.[11] On its website, PredictIt said that barring any changes in CFTC policy, it would halt trading on February 15, 2023.[12] The CFTC reversed this decision in March 2023, allowing the platform to operate legally.[13]

## See also[edit]

Ballotpedia's 2024 presidential election coverage

* Presidential election
* Presidential candidates
* Battleground states
* Presidential election by state
* Ballotpedia's presidential election coverage index

Presidential election prediction markets, 2020-2024
Use the dropdown menu below to navigate Ballotpedia's historical coverage of presidential election prediction markets.

20242020Submit

Additional reading

Presidential election competitiveness

Click the links below to read more about 2024 presidential election competitiveness.

* Prediction markets in the 2024 presidential election
* Prediction markets in the 2024 Democratic presidential primary
* Prediction markets in the 2024 Republican presidential primary

Ballotpedia's 2024 election coverage

Click the links below to read more of Ballotpedia's 2024 election coverage.

* Congressional elections
* Ballot measures
* State executive elections
* State legislative elections
* State judge elections
* Local elections
* School board elections

Information about voting

Click the links below to read about how to cast your ballot in 2024.

* What's on my ballot?
* Where do I vote?
* When do I vote?
* How do I register to vote?
* How do I request a mail ballot?
* When are the polls open?

## Footnotes[edit]

1. ↑ Nature, "The power of prediction markets," October 18, 2016
2. ↑ Politico, "Meet the 'stock market' for politics," October 31, 2014
3. ↑ U.S. Presidential General Election Results, "2008 Electoral Map Based on the Intrade Prediction Market," accessed January 25, 2018
4. ↑ PredictIt, "Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?" accessed December 16, 2022
5. ↑ PredictIt, "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?" accessed December 20, 2022
6. ↑ PredictIt, "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?" accessed December 20, 2022
7. ↑ Politico, "Meet the 'stock market' for politics," October 31, 2014
8. ↑ PredictIt, "What is PredictIt?" accessed August 28, 2020
9. ↑ <https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/these-gamblers-are-putting-money-on-the-outcome-of-the-impeachment-inquiry/2019/11/13/da535bee-f0f6-11e9-b648-76bcf86eb67e_story.html The Washington Post, "These gamblers are putting money on the outcome of the impeachment inquiry," November 13, 2019]
10. ↑ Politico, "Wall Street regulator moves to ban election betting, escalating fight over new market," May 10, 2024
11. ↑ Politico, "No future: Regulator orders political prediction market to shut down in U.S.," August 9, 2022
12. ↑ PredictIt, "PredictIt Announcements," accessed December 23, 2022
13. ↑ PredictIt, "Withdrawal of CFTC Letter No. 22-08 And Initial Determination Concerning CFTC Letter No. 14-130," accessed August 8, 2023

v • e

2024 United States presidential election

Overviews|

2024 presidential candidates • 2024 battleground states • Debate over 2024 presidential primary calendar • Electoral College in the 2024 presidential election • Presidential debates, 2024 • Presidential election by state, 2024 • Presidential voting history by state • Prediction markets in the 2024 presidential election • Timeline of announcements in the presidential election, 2024 • Presidential election campaign finance, 2024 • Presidential election endorsements, 2024 • Presidential campaign logos and slogans, 2024 • Presidential election key staffers, 2024 • Presidential campaign staff transfers, resignations, and terminations, 2024 • Presidential election campaign managers, 2024 • Vice presidential candidates, 2024 • Policy positions • Ballotpedia's presidential election coverage index

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Dates and deadlines|

Important dates in the 2024 presidential race • Deadline to run for president, 2024 • Filing deadlines for independent presidential candidates, 2024 • State laws and party rules on replacing a presidential nominee, 2024

Noteworthy candidates|

Kamala Harris (D) • Donald Trump (R) • Jill Stein (G) • Chase Oliver (L)

Noteworthy campaign staff|

Kamala Harris (D) • Donald Trump (R) • Chase Oliver (L)

Democratic primary|

Democratic presidential nomination, 2024 • Democratic National Convention, 2024 • Democratic delegate rules, 2024 • Prediction markets in the 2024 Democratic presidential primary • Democratic Party officials on Joe Biden's 2024 presidential election campaign • What happens if Joe Biden drops out or is replaced as the 2024 Democratic Party presidential nominee

Republican primary|

Republican presidential nomination, 2024 • Republican National Convention, 2024 • Republican delegate rules, 2024 • Prediction markets in the 2024 Republican presidential primary • Presidential candidate campaign travel, 2024 • Republican presidential primary debates, 2024 • The Republican Party Platform, 2024

Debates|

Presidential debates, 2024 • Vice presidential debate (October 1, 2024) • Presidential debate (September 10, 2024) • Presidential debate (June 27, 2024) • Republican presidential primary debate (August 23, 2023) • Republican presidential primary debate (September 27, 2023) • Republican presidential primary debate (November 8, 2023) • Republican presidential primary debate (December 6, 2023) • Republican presidential primary debate (January 10, 2024) • Republican presidential primary debate (January 18, 2024) • Republican presidential primary debate (January 21, 2024)

Minor party nominations|

Green Party presidential nomination, 2024 • Libertarian Party presidential nomination, 2024 • Minor party presidential ballot access, 2024

Withdrawn noteworthy candidates and campaign staff|

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) • Kennedy's campaign staff • Joe Biden (D) • Biden campaign staff • Dean Phillips (D) • Phillips campaign staff • Marianne Williamson (D) • Williamson campaign staff • Ryan Binkley (R) • Binkley campaign staff • Doug Burgum (R) • Burgum campaign staff • Chris Christie (R) • Christie campaign staff • Ron DeSantis (R) • DeSantis campaign staff • Larry Elder (R) • Elder campaign staff • Nikki Haley (R) • Haley campaign staff • Will Hurd (R) • Hurd campaign staff • Asa Hutchinson (R) • Hutchinson campaign staff • Perry Johnson (R) • Johnson campaign staff • Mike Pence (R) • Pence campaign staff • Vivek Ramaswamy (R) • Ramaswamy campaign staff • Tim Scott (R) • Scott campaign staff • Corey Stapleton (R) • Stapleton campaign staff • Francis Suarez (R) • Suarez campaign staff

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