Seismo-electromagnetics

Seismo-electromagnetics are various electro-magnetic phenomena believed to be generated by tectonic forces acting on the Earth's crust, and possibly associated with seismic activity such as earthquakes and volcanoes.[1] Study of these has been prompted by the prospect they might be generated by the increased stress leading up to an earthquake, and might thereby provide a basis for short-term earthquake prediction. However, despite many studies, no form of seismo-electromagnetics has been shown to be effective for earthquake prediction.[2] A key problem is that earthquakes themselves produce relatively weak electromagnetic phenomena, and the effects from any precursory phenomena are likely to be too weak to measure. Close monitoring of the Parkfield earthquake revealed no significant pre-seismic electromagnetic effects.[3][4][5] However, some researchers remain optimistic, and searches for seismo-electromagnetic earthquake precursors continue.[6]

## Contents

* 1 VAN method
* 2 QuakeFinder and Freund physics
* 3 Corralitos anomaly
* 4 ULF magnetic field precursors
* 5 TEC variations
* 6 Satellite observations
* 7 See also
* 8 References
* 9 Sources
* 10 Further reading

## VAN method

The VAN method – named after P. Varotsos, K. Alexopoulos and K. Nomicos, authors of the 1981 papers describing it[7][8] – measures low frequency electric signals, termed "seismic electric signals" (SES), by which Varotsos and several colleagues claimed to have successfully predicted earthquakes in Greece.[9][10] Both the method itself and the manner by which successful predictions were claimed have been severely criticized[11][12][13] and debated by VAN, but the critics have not retracted their views.[14][15]

Since 2001, the VAN group has introduced a concept they call "natural time", applied to the analysis of their precursors. Initially it is applied on SES to distinguish them from noise and relate them to a possible impending earthquake. In case of verification (classification as "SES activity"), natural time analysis is additionally applied to the general subsequent seismicity of the area associated with the SES activity, in order to improve the time parameter of the prediction. The method treats earthquake onset as a critical phenomenon.[16][17][18][19]

After 2006, VAN say that all alarms related to SES activity have been made public by posting at arxiv.org. One such report was posted on Feb. 1, 2008, two weeks before the largest earthquake in Greece during the period 1983–2011. This earthquake occurred on February 14, 2008, with magnitude (title|Moment mag. scale|Mw|dotted=no}}) 6.9. VAN's report was also described in an article in the newspaper Ethnos on Feb. 10, 2008.[20][21][22][23] However, Gerassimos Papadopolous complained that the VAN reports were confusing and ambiguous, and that "none of the claims for successful VAN predictions is justified",[24] but this complaint was answered on the same issue.[25]

## QuakeFinder and Freund physics

In his investigations of crystalline physics, Dr. Friedemann Freund found that water molecules embedded in rock can dissociate into ions if the rock is under intense stress. The resulting charge carriers can generate electrically charged particles under certain conditions. Freund suggested that perhaps these currents could be responsible for earthquake precursors such as electromagnetic radiation, earthquake lights and disturbances of the plasma in the ionosphere.[26] The study of such currents and interactions is known as electromagnetic precursor energy signals or Freund physics.[27]

Most seismologists reject Dr. Freund's theory that stress-generated signals can be detected and put to use as precursors, for three reasons. First, it is theorized that stress does not accumulate rapidly before a major earthquake, and thus there is no reason to expect large currents to be rapidly generated. Secondly, seismologists searched for statistically reliable electrical precursors, using seven field test instruments prior to the 2004 Parkfield earthquake and did not identify any such precursors. And thirdly, it is theorized water in the earth's crust would cause any charged particles to be absorbed before reaching the surface.[28]

QuakeFinder was a company focused on developing a system for deploying magnetic field sensors (magnetometer) with a mission to save lives by forecasting earthquakes.[29] The company operated as an independent company with controlling interest from Stellar Solutions, LLC and included a long-standing research collaboration between Mr. Tom Blier and Dr. Freund.[30] The company deployed a network of sensor stations to detect low-frequency, electromagnetic pulses the team believed might precede major earthquakes.[31] The sensors were reported to have a range of approximately 10 miles (16 km) from the instrument to the source of the pulses.[32] As of 2016, the company reported 125 stations in California,[33] and their research colleague, Dr. Jorge Heraud (Pontifica Universidad Catolica del Peru) reported 10 sites in Peru.[34] Using these sensors, Dr. Heraud published peer-reviewed findings that he had been able to triangulate pulses seen from multiple sites, in order to determine the origin of the pulses. Dr. Heraud reported that the pulses were seen beginning from 11 to 18 days before an impending earthquake, and could be used to determine the location and timing of future seismic events.[35][36]

However, insofar as a verifiable prediction would require a publicly stated announcement of the location, time, and size of an impending event before its occurrence, neither QuakeFinder nor Dr. Heraud verifiably predicted an earthquake, nor issued multiple predictions of the type that might be objectively testable for statistical significance.

Current research suggests it's dissolved gases that come out of solution when de-pressurized and then ionize to generate the electrical signatures.[37]

## Corralitos anomaly

In the month prior to the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake measurements of the Earth's magnetic field at ultra-low frequencies by a magnetometer in Corralitos, California, just 7 km from the epicenter of the impending earthquake, started showing anomalous increases in amplitude. Just three hours before the quake the measurements soared to about thirty times greater than normal, with amplitudes tapering off after the quake. Such amplitudes had not been seen in two years of operation, nor in a similar instrument located 54 km away. To many people such apparent locality in time and space suggested an association with the earthquake.[38]

Additional magnetometers were subsequently deployed across northern and southern California, but after ten years, and several large earthquakes, similar signals have not been observed. More recent studies have cast doubt on the connection, attributing the Corralitos signals to either unrelated magnetic disturbance[39] or, even more simply, to sensor-system malfunction.[40]

Study of the closely monitored 2004 Parkfield earthquake found no evidence of precursory electromagnetic signals of any type.[41]

## ULF magnetic field precursors

Two recent studies by Konstantinos Eftaxias and his colleagues examined ULF magnetic fields preceding major earthquakes. At the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, ULF radiation exhibited critical behavior,[42] while at the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, the researchers found a depression of the horizontal ULF magnetic field, which may also be interpreted as a manifestation of criticality.[43][44]

## TEC variations

Professor Kosuke Heki of Hokkaido University in Japan said that he discovered by accident that GPS signals changed about 40 minutes before the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Reviewing historical data for other earthquakes, he found that this same correlation occurred during other incidents. He suggested that the GPS signals were detecting variations in the levels of the TEC (total electron content) of the ionosphere in the hour preceding an earthquake.[45][46]

## Satellite observations

The "Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions" satellite, constructed by CNES, has made observations which show strong correlations between certain types of low frequency electromagnetic activity and the most seismically active zones on the Earth, and have shown a sharp signal in the ionospheric electron density and temperature near southern Japan seven days before a 7.1 magnitude earthquake occurred there (on August 29 and September 5, 2004, respectively).[47]

Quakesat is an earth observation nanosatellite based on 3 CubeSats. It was designed to be a proof-of-concept for collecting extremely low frequency earthquake precursor signals from space. The primary instrument is a magnetometer housed in a 2-foot (0.6 m) telescoping boom. The science behind the concept is disputed.[31]

ESPERIA is an equatorial space mission mainly concerned with detecting any tectonic and preseismic related signals. More in general, it has been proposed for defining the near-Earth electromagnetic, plasma, and particle environment, and for studying perturbations and instabilities in the ionosphere-magnetosphere transition region. To study earthquake preparation processes and anthropogenic impacts in the Earth's surface, a phase A study has been realized for the Italian Space Agency.[48]

The Deformation, Ecosystem Structure and Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI) radar satellite, which was canceled in the White House's 2012 budget proposal, would have the capacity to identify elastic strain in tectonic plates, combining L-band interferometric synthetic aperture radar and a multi-beam infrared lidar to detect strains in the Earth's surface that could lead to serious earthquakes.[49][50]

Russia and the United Kingdom agreed to jointly deploy two satellites in 2015 that will measure electromagnetic signals that are released from the earth's crust prior to earthquakes. The project is said to be able to "help predict earthquakes and potentially save thousands of lives."[51]

Another site of current research is China, where a satellite launch was planned for 2014, to provide data from ionospheric phenomena for comparison with seismo-electromagnetic phenomena on the ground. Such a link is partially borne out in the current literature, with ionospheric phenomena already shown to precede seismic phenomena by a few hours to days. The network would potentially show whether such ionospheric phenomena are sourced from ground electrical phenomena.[52]

## See also

* Electrical resistivity tomography
* Induced polarization
* Magnetometer
* Seismoelectrical method
* Telluric current
* VAN method

## References

1. ↑ Johnston, M. J. S. (2002-01-01) (in en-US), Electromagnetic Fields Generated by Earthquakes, International Geophysics, 81, Academic Press, pp. 621–635, doi:10.1016/S0074-6142(02)80241-8, ISBN 978-0-12-440652-0, Bibcode: 2002InGeo..81..621J, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/chapter/bookseries/abs/pii/S0074614202802418, retrieved 2026-04-29
2. ↑ Manglik, Ajay; Suresh, M.; Demudu Babu, M.; Pavankumar, G. (2024-12-26). "Pre- and coseismic electromagnetic signals of the Nepal earthquake of 03 november 2023" (in en). Earth, Planets and Space 76 (1): 173. doi:10.1186/s40623-024-02108-2. ISSN 1880-5981. Bibcode: 2024EP&S...76..173M.
3. ↑ Park, Stephen K.; William, Dalrymple; Larsen, Jimmy C. (2007). "The 2004 Parkfield earthquake: Test of the electromagnetic precursor hypothesis". Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (B5). doi:10.1029/2005jb004196. ISSN 0148-0227. Bibcode: 2007JGRB..112.5302P. https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1363951795941629568.
4. ↑ Johnston, M. J. S.; Sasai, Y.; Egbert, G. D.; Mueller, R. J. (2006). "Seismomagnetic effects from the long-awaited 28 September 2004 M 6.0 parkfield earthquake" (in en). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 96 (4 B): S206–S220. doi:10.1785/0120050810. ISSN 1943-3573. Bibcode: 2006BuSSA..96S.206J. https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70028924.
5. ↑ "Parkfield Monitoring: Electromagnetic". https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/parkfield/electromag.php.
6. ↑ Hunt, Allen; Gershenzon, Naum; Bambakidis, Gust (2007-02-20). "Pre-seismic electromagnetic phenomena in the framework of percolation and fractal theories". Tectonophysics. Mechanical and electromagnetic phenomena accompanying preseismic deformation: from laboratory to geophysical scale 431 (1): 23–32. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2006.05.028. ISSN 0040-1951. Bibcode: 2007Tectp.431...23H. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040195106004628.
7. ↑ Varotsos, Alexopoulos & Nomicos 1981a, 1981b
8. ↑ Varotsos & Alexopoulos 1984
9. ↑ Varotsos & Kuhlanek 1993 (preface to a special edition about VAN)
10. ↑ Varotsos, Alexopoulos & Lazaridou 1993 harvnb error: no target: CITEREFVarotsosAlexopoulosLazaridou1993 (help)
11. ↑ Mulargia & Gasperini 1992
12. ↑ Geller 1997, §4.5
13. ↑ ICEF 2011, p. 335
14. ↑ Lighthill 1996 (proceedings of a conference that reviewed VAN)
15. ↑ twenty articles in a special issue of Geophysical Research Letters (table of contents)
16. ↑ Varotsos, Sarlis & Skordas 2002; Varotsos 2006.
17. ↑ Rundle et al. 2012 harvnb error: no target: CITEREFRundle_et_al.2012 (help).
18. ↑ Huang 2015.
19. ↑ Uyeda, Kamogawa & Tanaka 2009
20. ↑ Uyeda & Kamogawa 2008
21. ↑ Uyeda 2010
22. ↑ Apostolidis 2008.
23. ↑ Chouliaras 2009
24. ↑ Papadopoulos 2010
25. ↑ Uyeda & Kamogawa 2010 harvnb error: no target: CITEREFUyedaKamogawa2010 (help)
26. ↑ Freund 2000
27. ↑ Hough 2010, pp. 133–135
28. ↑ Hough 2010, pp. 137–139
29. ↑ "QuakeFinder" (in en-US). https://stellarsolutions.com/quakefinder/.
30. ↑ "QuakeFinder's partnership with the SETI Institute". https://www.quakefinder.com/quakefinders-partnership-with-the-seti-institute/.
31. ↑ 31.0 31.1 Upton, John (August 13, 2011). "Pursuing the Grail of an Earthquake Predictor, but Facing Skeptics". The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/14/us/14bcquakefinder.html.
32. ↑ Sibley, Lisa (March 25, 2011). "QuakeFinder's mission: Detect quakes before they shake". Silicon Valley / San Jose Business Journal. American Cities Business Journals. http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/print-edition/2011/03/25/quakefinder-mission-detect-quakes-before.html.
33. ↑ "Quakefinder Blog". 2016. https://www.quakefinder.com/thank-you-henry-dela-pena/.
34. ↑ Heraud, Jorge (2016). "presenter bio". https://exponential.singularityu.org/summit/presenters/jorge-heraud/.
35. ↑ Heraud, Centa & Bleier 2015
36. ↑ Enriquez 2015
37. ↑ Nield, David (30 May 2021). "Weird Electromagnetic Bursts Appear Before Earthquakes – And We May Finally Know Why". ScienceAlert. https://www.sciencealert.com/weird-electromagnetic-bursts-appear-before-earthquakes-and-we-may-finally-know-why.
38. ↑ (Fraser-Smith Bernardi) called it "encouraging".
39. ↑ Campbell 2009
40. ↑ Thomas, Love & Johnston 2009
41. ↑ Park, Dalrymple & Larsen 2007, paragraphs 1 and 32. See also Johnston et al. 2006, p. S218 harvnb error: multiple targets (2×): CITEREFJohnstonSasaiEgbertMueller2006 (help) (no VAN-type SES observed) and Kappler, Morrison & Egbert 2010 ("no effects found that can be reasonably characterized as precursors").
42. ↑ Contoyiannis, Y.; Potirakis, S. M.; Eftaxias, K.; Hayakawa, M.; Schekotov, A. (2016-06-15). "Intermittent criticality revealed in ULF magnetic fields prior to the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake ()". Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 452: 19–28. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2016.01.065. Bibcode: 2016PhyA..452...19C.
43. ↑ Contoyiannis, Y.; Potirakis, S. M.; Eftaxias, K.; Hayakawa, M.; Schekotov, A. (2016-06-15). "Intermittent criticality revealed in ULF magnetic fields prior to the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake ()". Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 452: 19–28. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2016.01.065. Bibcode: 2016PhyA..452...19C.
44. ↑ For supporting information and review, see also Maggipinto, Tommaso; Biagi, Pier Francesco; Colella, Roberto; Schiavulli, Luigi; Ligonzo, Teresa; Ermini, Anita; Martinelli, Giovanni; Moldovan, Iren et al. (2015-01-01). "The LF radio anomaly observed before the Mw = 6.5 earthquake in Crete on October 12, 2013". Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C. Earthquakes Precursors and Earthquake Prediction: Recent Advances 85–86: 98–105. doi:10.1016/j.pce.2015.10.010. Bibcode: 2015PCE....85...98M. https://art.torvergata.it/bitstream/2108/188111/1/JPCEproofs.pdf. and Fujinawa, Y.; Noda, Y.; Takahashi, K.; Kobayashi, M.; Takamatsu, K.; Natsumeda, J. (2013-12-31). "Field Detection of Microcracks to Define the Nucleation Stage of Earthquake Occurrence" (in en). International Journal of Geophysics 2013 (1): 1–18. doi:10.1155/2013/651823. ISSN 1687-885X. Bibcode: 2013IJGeo201351823F.
45. ↑ Kosuke Heki, Ionospheric electron enhancement preceding the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Geophysical Research Letters, V. 38, L17312, 5 PP., 2011 doi:10.1029/2011GL047908 abstract
46. ↑ BBC News
47. ↑ "Satellite défilant du CNES (France)". http://lettres-histoire.ac-rouen.fr/histgeo/demeter.htm. Script error: The function "in_lang" does not exist.
48. ↑ Sgrignal, Vittorio; Console, Rodolfo; Conti, Livio; Moiseev Galper, Arkady; Malvezzil, Valeria; Parrot, Michel; Picozza, Piergiorgio; Scrimaglio, Renato et al. (2005). The ESPERIA Project: a Mission to Investigate the near-Earth Space. 407–412. doi:10.1007/3-540-26800-6_65. ISBN 3-540-22804-7. Bibcode: 2005eocr.book..407S.
49. ↑ Simons, Mark, "Budget Cuts and the Next Earthquake", Wall Street Journal, March 23, 2011
50. ↑ Morring Jr., Frank, "Funding Uncertainty Shaping NASA Programs", Aviation Week, Mar 28, 2011
51. ↑ "Russian, British scientists eye satellites to predict earthquakes"[Usurped!], AHN, February 22, 2011
52. ↑ Shen, Xuhui, Xuemin Zhang, Lanwei Wang, Huaran Chen, Yun Wu, Shigeng Yuan, Junfeng Shen, Shufan Zhao, Jiadong Qian and Jianhai Ding (2011). "The earthquake-related disturbances in ionosphere and project of the first China seismo-electromagnetic satellite". Earthquake Science (Springer Science+Business Media) 24 (6): 639–650. doi:10.1007/s11589-011-0824-0. Bibcode: 2011EaSci..24..639S.

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## Further reading

* Seismo electromagnetics: lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling, Masashi Hayakawa, Oleg A. Molchanov, TerraPub, 2002, ISBN 978-4-88704-130-1
* On the reported magnetic precursor of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, Jeremy N. Thomas, Jeffrey J. Love, Malcolm J.S. Johnston, Phys. Earth Planet. Int., 173, 207–215, doi:10.1016/j.pepi.2008.11.014, 2009.
* Ionospheric precursors of earthquakes, Sergey Pulinets, Kirill Boyarchuk, Springer, 2004, ISBN 978-3-540-20839-6
* Electromagnetic Phenomenon Related to Earthquakes and Volcanoes, Birbal Singh, Narosa Pub. House, 2008, 17 Jun 2009, ISBN 978-81-7319-858-8
* A Critical review of VAN: earthquake prediction from seismic electrical signals, James Lighthill, World Scientific, 1996, ISBN 978-981-02-2542-1
* Monitoring of ULF (ultra-low-frequency) Geomagnetic Variations Associated with Earthquakes, Masashi Hayakawa, Katsumi Hattori and Kenji Ohta, Sensors 2007, 7, 1108–1122
* Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies registered by continuous GPS TEC measurements, J. Y. Liu, Y. J. Chuo, S. J. Shan, Y. B. Tsai, Y. I. Chen, S. A. Pulinets, and S. B. Yu, Annales Geophysicae (2004) 22: 1585–1593

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