Daily Brew: May 31, 2024

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Welcome to the Friday, May 31, Brew.

By: Mercedes Yanora

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. 10-year high of 42 contested state legislative primaries in New Mexico this year
2. Seven new ballot measures certified in five states
3. #FridayTrivia: How many states are holding state supreme court elections this year?

## 10-year high of 42 contested state legislative primaries in New Mexico this year

Continuing our coverage of June 4 primaries, let’s dive into elections in New Mexico. The state is holding primaries for congressional, state executive, state legislative, and local offices. Retention elections for state judicial offices are on Nov. 5.

Why it matters at the national level

U.S. Senate

Democrats currently have a majority in the U.S. Senate. There are 48 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and three independents, though two independents caucus with the Democratic Party. Another independent, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.), counts toward the Democratic majority for committee purposes.

Thirty-four of 100 seats are up for election, including one special election. Of the seats up for election in 2024, Democrats hold 20, Republicans hold 11, and independents hold three.

U.S. House

Democrats represent all three of New Mexico’s congressional districts. Republicans have a 217-213 majority in the U.S. House, with five vacancies. One of New Mexico’s House districts is a general election battleground: the 2nd Congressional District. In 2022, Gabriel Vasquez (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) 50.3%-49.6%. Both are running in the district this year.

Primary elections

U.S. Senate

* Incumbent Martin Heinrich (D) is running for re-election.
* Two candidates, one from each party, are running for the seat.
* Heinrich won re-election with 54.1% of the vote in 2018.

U.S. House

* Seven candidates are running for New Mexico's three U.S. House districts, including three Democrats and four Republicans.
* No seats are open this year, meaning all incumbents are running for re-election. There was one House seat open in 2020 and two in 2018, the only two times in the last 10 years in which House seats were open.
* Three candidates are running for the 1st Congressional District, the most candidates running for a district this year. The candidates include Democratic incumbent Melanie Ann Stansbury and two Republicans.
* The Republican primary in the 1st Congressional District is the only contested primary this year, tying with 2016 for the fewest contested primaries in the last 10 years. Between 2014 and 2022, an average of 2.4 primaries were contested.

* No incumbents are facing primary challengers this year. The last election cycle an incumbent faced a primary was in 2014 when then-incumbent Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D) and Robert Blanch ran in the 3rd Congressional District.
* Candidates are running in the Republican and Democratic primaries in all three districts, meaning neither major party is guaranteed a victory in any of the races.

New Mexico Legislature

New Mexico has 42 contested state legislative primaries this year, the most since we started tracking that figure in 2014. Democrats have a 27-15 majority in the Senate and a 45-25 majority in the House.

There are 213 total candidates running in New Mexico's state legislative primaries this year, 26 fewer than in 2020, the last time both the House and Senate held elections. New Mexico's 42 Senate seats are up for election every four years, while the 70 House seats are up for election every two years.

Nineteen incumbents are retiring in 2024. There was an increase in retirements this year because this is the first Senate election since redistricting in 2021. In elections from 2012 to 2024 — for years when all 112 seats were up for election — there was an average of 15 retirements. The highest number during that time was 22 retirements in 2012.

Twenty-two incumbents, or 23.7% of all incumbents, face primary challengers this year, a 10-year high.

State executive

Five of 10 seats on the New Mexico Public Education Commission are up for election. The commission advises the New Mexico secretary of education, who heads the New Mexico Public Education Department. None of the primaries are contested.

Local primaries

* Municipal: We are covering elections in the city of Santa Fe and Bernalillo County.
* Santa Fe \- District attorney
* Bernalillo County \- Clerk, treasurer, district attorney, county commissioners, and metropolitan court judge

New Mexico and four other states — Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota — are holding primary elections on June 4.

Keep reading

## Seven new ballot measures certified in five states

So far this year, 110 statewide ballot measures have been certified in 35 states. An average of 105 measures were certified at this point between 2012 and 2022. An average of 157 statewide measures were on the ballot in even-numbered years from 2012 to 2022.

Here's an update on the ballot measure activity during the past two weeks.

Election officials certified seven ballot measures in California, Colorado, Louisiana, Missouri, and South Dakota:

* California Require Certain Participants in Medi-Cal Rx Program to Spend 98% of Revenues on Patient Care Initiative
* Colorado Right to Abortion and Health Insurance Coverage Initiative
* Louisiana Allow Legislature to Extend Regular Sessions to Pass Appropriations Bills Amendment
* Louisiana 48-Hour Waiting Period for Concurrence on Appropriation Bills Amendment
* Missouri Levying of Fees to Support Salaries of Law Enforcement Personnel Amendment
* Missouri Require Citizenship to Vote and Prohibit Ranked-Choice Voting Amendment
* South Dakota Constitutional Amendment H, Top-Two Primary Elections Initiative

Election officials removed one ballot measure from the ballot in Nebraska. The legislature repealed the legislation the veto referendum was targeting and passed a new bill.

* Nebraska Education Scholarships Tax Credit Referendum

Campaigns submitted signatures for 10 initiatives: three in California, one in Idaho, four in Missouri, one in Nevada, and one in South Dakota.

* California Changes to the State Children's Services Program Initiative
* California Drug and Theft Crime Penalties and Treatment-Mandated Felonies Initiative
* California Managed Care Organization Tax Authorization Initiative
* Idaho Top-Four Ranked-Choice Voting Initiative
* Missouri Minimum Wage and Earned Paid Sick Time Initiative
* Missouri Osage River Gambling Boat License Amendment
* Missouri Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment
* Missouri Sports Betting Amendment
* Nevada Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment
* South Dakota Marijuana Legalization Initiative

Those measures are pending signature verification or other pre-certification actions. In Massachusetts, election officials verified enough signatures for six indirect ballot initiatives to appear before the state legislature:

* Massachusetts App-Based Drivers as Contractors and Labor Policies Initiative
* Massachusetts Authorization of State Auditor to Audit General Court Initiative
* Massachusetts Minimum Wage for Tipped Employees Initiative
* Massachusetts Regulated Access to Psychedelic Substances Initiative
* Massachusetts Repeal Competency Assessment Requirement for High School Graduation Initiative
* Massachusetts Unionization and Collective Bargaining for Transportation Network Drivers Initiative

In Massachusetts, initiated state statutes are indirect. This means the legislature had the option to pass the initiatives outright. Because the legislature did not act by the May 1 deadline, campaigns have until July 3 to gather an additional 12,429 signatures in order to qualify for the November ballot.

The most recent signature deadline for citizen-initiatives was May 29 in Michigan. The deadline was for indirect initiated state statutes. None of the campaigns filed signatures. Signatures for initiated constitutional amendments are due on July 8.

The next signature deadline is June 21 in Montana. There are seven initiatives that are still gathering signatures. These include initiatives to provide a state constitutional right to abortion, enact top-four primaries, require a majority voting system, and change hunting regulations on private land.

The following chart shows the number of ballot measures certified each week of an even-numbered year.

Keep reading

## #FridayTrivia: How many states are holding state supreme court elections this year?

In the Wednesday Brew, we previewed Montana’s June 4 primaries, including the nonpartisan races for two seats on the state’s supreme court.

State supreme court elections often receive less attention during busy election cycles compared to those for the White House, Congress, or even governor. However, the country’s 52 state courts of last resort (Texas and Oklahoma have two supreme courts) play a significant role in shaping the laws and policies in each state, including issues related to redistricting, abortion, and elections.

Our coverage goes beyond all state supreme court elections. In 2020, for example, we released Ballotpedia Courts: State Partisanship, a unique study to discern the partisan balance on each of the country’s courts of last resort. Of the 341 justices we studied at the time, 52.5% recorded Republican Confidence Scores, 33.1% recorded Democratic Confidence Scores, and 14.4% recorded Indeterminate Confidence Scores. You can read that study here.

How many states are holding state supreme court elections in 2024?

1. 21
2. 13
3. 42
4. 33