Manifold (prediction market)

Short description: Online reputation-based prediction market

Manifold

Manifold front page

Available in| English
Founded| 2021; 5 years ago (2021)
Area served| Worldwide
Founder(s)| Austin Chen, James Grugett, Stephen Grugett
Website| manifold.markets
Registration| Optional
Current status| Active
Written in| TypeScript

Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is a reputation-based prediction market.[1][2] Users compete with other users, betting on various topics, from natural disasters like hurricanes to political events.[3][4]

## Contents

* 1 Market structure
* 2 Topics
* 3 History
* 4 See also
* 5 References
* 6 External links

## Market structure

A gamification feature is the play money "Mana", denoted as Ṁ, which allows users to make predictions without any financial risk. It is impossible to convert Mana to real money, though it can be redeemed as a charitable donation.[5] Markets use a version of the Uniswap automated market maker.[6]

## Topics

Manifold hosts prediction markets on user-submitted topics. These topics have included the use of nuclear weapons during the Russo-Ukrainian War,[7] the proposed superconducting material LK-99,[1][4] cryptocurrency,[8] artificial intelligence,[9] and the 2024 GOP primary.[10]

## History

Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett.[11]

Manifold has received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund,[12] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.[13]

Manifold was also one of the ACX Grants awardees.[14]

## See also

* Prediction market
* Metaculus

## References

1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 "Why a "room-temperature superconductor" would be a huge deal" (in en). 7 August 2023. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23816753/superconductor-room-temperature-lk99-quantum-fusion. "Prediction markets have seen wildly varying odds as participants bet for and against the material working out."
2. ↑ Frick, Walter. "Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets". https://www.niemanlab.org/2022/12/journalists-wake-up-to-the-power-of-prediction-markets/.
3. ↑ "About" (in en). https://manifold.markets/sitemap.
4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 Roose, Kevin; Newton, Casey; Land, Davis; Cohn, Rachel; Poyant, Jen; Moxley, Alyssa; Powell, Dan; Ittoop, Elisheba et al. (4 August 2023). "Superconductor Superconfusion, KOSA's Hidden Costs and HatGPT" (in en). The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/04/podcasts/superconductor-superconfusion-kosas-hidden-costs-and-hatgpt.html?showTranscript=1. "Well, right now, on Manifold Markets, so the question that people are betting on is, will the LK-99 room temp ambient pressure superconductivity preprint replicate before 2025? And right now, the market says that there is a 36 percent chance that this will happen."
5. ↑ "Manifold Markets - EA Forum" (in en). https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/manifold-markets.
6. ↑ Frongillo, Rafael; Papireddygari, Maneesha; Waggoner, Bo (2023). "An Axiomatic Characterization of CFMMs and Equivalence to Prediction Markets". arXiv:2302.00196 [cs.GT].
7. ↑ Drljača, Gojko (2022-09-30). "Jutarnji list - Šanse za nuklearni rat u 2023. drastično su porasle: Ovakvo što nije viđeno od Kubanske krize" (in hr-hr). https://www.jutarnji.hr/vijesti/svijet/sanse-za-nuklearni-rat-u-2023-drasticno-su-porasle-ovakvo-sto-nije-videno-od-kubanske-krize-15254863.
8. ↑ Haig, Samuel (2023-08-31). "PayPal’s Stablecoin Sees Minimal Activity Three Weeks After Launch" (in en). https://thedefiant.io/paypal-stablecoin-sees-minimal-activity-three-weeks-after-launch.
9. ↑ Shapira, Liron. "OpenAI Wants to Harness AI. It Should Pause Instead". https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-wants-to-harness-ai-it-should-pause-instead.
10. ↑ Kessler, Sam (2023-08-24). "After GOP Debate, Blockchain Bettors See Ramaswamy as Most Formidable Trump Challenger" (in en-US). https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gop-debate-blockchain-bettors-see-174608571.html.
11. ↑ Richard Hanania. "Mana from Heaven | Stephen Grugett, James Grugett, & Richard Hanania". CSPI (Podcast). Retrieved 2023-08-31.
12. ↑ Ashworth, Louis (2022-12-19). "How to spend a million dollars, by Sam Bankman-Fried". Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/9a3b4b78-b18b-4d1f-b28b-05a73525aa61.
13. ↑ "SFF-2022-H1 S-Process Recommendations Announcement" (in en-US). https://survivalandflourishing.fund/sff-2022-h1-recommendations.
14. ↑ Chen, Austin; Grugett, James. "Create a prediction market in two minutes on Manifold Markets" (in en). https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qcYu6fMb6qg4zcftn/create-a-prediction-market-in-two-minutes-on-manifold.

## External links

* Manifold website
* Manifold GitHub organization (source code)

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