Abrupt climate change

Short description: Form of climate change

Clathrate hydrates have been identified as a possible agent for abrupt changes.

An abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system is forced to transition at a rate that is determined by the climate system energy-balance. The transition rate is more rapid than the rate of change of the external forcing,[1] though it may include sudden forcing events such as meteorite impacts.[2] Abrupt climate change therefore is a variation beyond the variability of a climate. Past events include the end of the Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse,[3] Younger Dryas,[4] Dansgaard–Oeschger events, Heinrich events and possibly also the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum.[5] The term is also used within the context of climate change to describe sudden climate change that is detectable over the time-scale of a human lifetime. Such a sudden climate change can be the result of feedback loops within the climate system[6] or tipping points in the climate system.

Scientists may use different timescales when speaking of abrupt events. For example, the duration of the onset of the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum may have been anywhere between a few decades and several thousand years. In comparison, climate models predict that under ongoing greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth's near surface temperature could depart from the usual range of variability in the last 150 years as early as 2047.[7]

## Contents

* 1 Definitions
* 1.1 Timescales
* 2 Past events
* 3 Possible precursors
* 4 Climate feedback effects
* 4.1 Tipping points in the climate system
* 4.2 Volcanism
* 5 Impacts
* 6 See also
* 7 References

## Definitions

Abrupt climate change can be defined in terms of physics or in terms of impacts: "In terms of physics, it is a transition of the climate system into a different mode on a time scale that is faster than the responsible forcing. In terms of impacts, an abrupt change is one that takes place so rapidly and unexpectedly that human or natural systems have difficulty adapting to it. These definitions are complementary: the former gives some insight into how abrupt climate change comes about; the latter explains why there is so much research devoted to it."[8]

### Timescales

Timescales of events described as abrupt may vary dramatically. Changes recorded in the climate of Greenland at the end of the Younger Dryas, as measured by ice-cores, imply a sudden warming of +10 °C (+18 °F) within a timescale of a few years.[9] Other abrupt changes are the +4 °C (+7.2 °F) on Greenland 11,270 years ago[10] or the abrupt +6 °C (11 °F) warming 22,000 years ago on Antarctica.[11]

By contrast, the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum may have initiated anywhere between a few decades and several thousand years. Finally, Earth System's models project that under ongoing greenhouse gas emissions as early as 2047, the Earth's near surface temperature could depart from the range of variability in the last 150 years.[7]

## Past events

The Younger Dryas period of abrupt climate change is named after the alpine flower, Dryas.

Several periods of abrupt climate change have been identified in the paleoclimatic record. Notable examples include:

* About 25 climate shifts, called Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles, which have been identified in the ice core record during the glacial period over the past 100,000 years.[12]
* The Younger Dryas event, notably its sudden end. It is the most recent of the Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles and began 12,800 years ago and moved back into a warm-and-wet climate regime about 11,600 years ago."Abrupt Climate Change - What scientific evidence do we have that abrupt climate change has happened before?". https://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/arch/examples.shtml. It has been suggested that "the extreme rapidity of these changes in a variable that directly represents regional climate implies that the events at the end of the last glaciation may have been responses to some kind of threshold or trigger in the North Atlantic climate system."[13] A model for this event based on disruption to the thermohaline circulation has been supported by other studies.[14]
* The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, timed at 55 million years ago, which may have been caused by the release of methane clathrates,[15] although potential alternative mechanisms have been identified.[16] This was associated with rapid ocean acidification[17]
* The Permian–Triassic Extinction Event, in which up to 95% of all species became extinct, has been hypothesized to be related to a rapid change in global climate.[18][19] Life on land took 30 million years to recover.[20]
* The Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse occurred 300 million years ago, at which time tropical rainforests were devastated by climate change. The cooler, drier climate had a severe effect on the biodiversity of amphibians, the primary form of vertebrate life on land.[3]

There are also abrupt climate changes associated with the catastrophic draining of glacial lakes. One example of this is the 8.2-kiloyear event, which is associated with the draining of Glacial Lake Agassiz.[21] Another example is the Antarctic Cold Reversal, c. 14,500 years before present (BP), which is believed to have been caused by a meltwater pulse probably from either the Antarctic ice sheet[22] or the Laurentide Ice Sheet.[23] These rapid meltwater release events have been hypothesized as a cause for Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles.[24]

A five-year study led by the Oxford School of Archaeology and additionally conducted by Royal Holloway, University of London, the Oxford University Museum of Natural History, and the National Oceanography Centre Southampton[25] completed in 2013 called "Response of Humans to Abrupt Environmental Transitions" and referred to as "RESET" aimed to see if the hypothesis that humans have major development shifts during or immediately after abrupt climate changes with the aid of knowledge pulled from research on the palaeoenvironmental conditions, prehistoric archaeological history, oceanography, and volcanic geology of the last 130,000 years and across continents.[26][27] It also aimed to predict possible human behavior in the event of climate change, and the timing of climate change.[28]

A 2017 study concluded that similar conditions to today's Antarctic ozone hole (atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate changes), ~17,700 years ago, when stratospheric ozone depletion contributed to abrupt accelerated Southern Hemisphere deglaciation. The event coincidentally happened with an estimated 192-year series of massive volcanic eruptions, attributed to Mount Takahe in West Antarctica.[29]

## Possible precursors

Most abrupt climate shifts are likely due to sudden circulation shifts, analogous to a flood cutting a new river channel. The best-known examples are the several dozen shutdowns of the North Atlantic Ocean's Meridional Overturning Circulation during the last ice age, affecting climate worldwide.[30]

* The current warming of the Arctic, the duration of the summer season, is considered abrupt and massive.[31]
* Antarctic ozone depletion caused significant atmospheric circulation changes.[31]
* There have also been two occasions when the Atlantic's Meridional Overturning Circulation lost a crucial safety factor. The Greenland Sea flushing at 75 °N shut down in 1978, recovering over the next decade.[32] Then the second-largest flushing site, the Labrador Sea, shut down in 1997[33] for ten years.[34] While shutdowns overlapping in time have not been seen during the 50 years of observation, previous total shutdowns had severe worldwide climate consequences.[30]

It has been postulated that teleconnections – oceanic and atmospheric processes on different timescales – connect both hemispheres during abrupt climate change.[35]

## Climate feedback effects

The dark ocean surface reflects only 6 percent of incoming solar radiation; sea ice reflects 50 to 70 percent.[36]

See also: Earth:Climate change feedback and Tipping points in the climate system

One source of abrupt climate change effects is a feedback process, in which a warming event causes a change that adds to further warming.[37] The same can apply to cooling. Examples of such feedback processes are:

* Ice–albedo feedback in which the advance or retreat of ice cover alters the albedo ("whiteness") of the earth and its ability to absorb the sun's energy.[38]
* Soil carbon feedback is the release of carbon from soils in response to global warming.
* The dying and the burning of forests by global warming.[39]

The probability of abrupt change for some climate related feedbacks may be low.[40][41] Factors that may increase the probability of abrupt climate change include higher magnitudes of global warming, warming that occurs more rapidly and warming that is sustained over longer time periods.[41]

### Tipping points in the climate system

Possible tipping elements in the climate system include regional effects of climate change, some of which had abrupt onset and may therefore be regarded as abrupt climate change.[42] Scientists have stated, "Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change".[42]

This section is an excerpt from Tipping points in the climate system[ edit ]

### Volcanism

Isostatic rebound in response to glacier retreat (unloading) and increased local salinity have been attributed to increased volcanic activity at the onset of the abrupt Bølling–Allerød warming. They are associated with the interval of intense volcanic activity, hinting at an interaction between climate and volcanism: enhanced short-term melting of glaciers, possibly via albedo changes from particle fallout on glacier surfaces.[43]

## Impacts

A summary of the path of the thermohaline circulation. Blue paths represent deep-water currents, and red paths represent surface currents. The Permian–Triassic extinction event, labelled "P–Tr" here, is the most significant extinction event in this plot for marine genera.

In the past, abrupt climate change has likely caused wide-ranging and severe impacts as follows:

* Mass extinctions, most notably the Permian–Triassic extinction event (often referred colloquially to as the Great Dying) and the Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse, have been suggested as a consequence of abrupt climate change.[3][20][19]
* Loss of biodiversity: without interference from abrupt climate change and other extinction events, the biodiversity of Earth would continue to grow.[44]
* Sea ice decline in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, specifically in the Baffin Bay and Labrador Sea.[45]
* Changes in ocean circulation such as:

* Increasing frequency of El Niño events[46][47]
* Potential disruption to the thermohaline circulation, such as that which may have occurred during the Younger Dryas event.[48][14]
* Changes to the North Atlantic oscillation[49]
* Changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) which could contribute to more severe weather events.[50]

## See also

* Climate sensitivity
* Effects of climate change
* Nuclear winter
* Volcanic winter
* Impact winter

## References

1. ↑ Harunur Rashid; Leonid Polyak; Ellen Mosley-Thompson (2011). Abrupt climate change: mechanisms, patterns, and impacts. American Geophysical Union. ISBN 978-0-87590-484-9. http://clio.columbia.edu/catalog/10283642?counter=2.
2. ↑ Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, National Research Council. (2002). "Definition of Abrupt Climate Change". Abrupt climate change: inevitable surprises. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. doi:10.17226/10136. ISBN 978-0-309-07434-6. http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?isbn=0309074347&page=14#pagetop.
3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 Sahney, S.; Benton, M.J.; Falcon-Lang, H.J. (2010). "Rainforest collapse triggered Pennsylvanian tetrapod diversification in Euramerica". Geology 38 (12): 1079–1082. doi:10.1130/G31182.1. Bibcode: 2010Geo....38.1079S.
4. ↑ Broecker, W. S. (May 2006). "Geology. Was the Younger Dryas triggered by a flood?". Science 312 (5777): 1146–1148. doi:10.1126/science.1123253. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 16728622.
5. ↑ National Research Council (2002). Abrupt climate change: inevitable surprises. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. p. 108. ISBN 0-309-07434-7. https://archive.org/details/abruptclimatecha00boar.
6. ↑ Rial, J. A.; Pielke Sr., R. A.; Beniston, M.; Claussen, M.; Canadell, J.; Cox, P.; Held, H.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N. et al. (2004). "Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds within the Earth's Climate System". Climatic Change 65 (1–2): 11–00. doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000037493.89489.3f. Bibcode: 2004ClCh...65...11R. http://www.biology.duke.edu/upe302/pdf files/jfr_nonlinear.pdf.
7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 Mora, C (2013). "The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability". Nature 502 (7470): 183–187. doi:10.1038/nature12540. PMID 24108050. Bibcode: 2013Natur.502..183M.
8. ↑ "1: What defines "abrupt" climate change?". http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/arch/definition.shtml.
9. ↑ Grachev, A.M.; Severinghaus, J.P. (2005). "A revised +10±4 °C magnitude of the abrupt change in Greenland temperature at the Younger Dryas termination using published GISP2 gas isotope data and air thermal diffusion constants". Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (5–6): 513–9. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.10.016. Bibcode: 2005QSRv...24..513G.
10. ↑ Kobashi, T.; Severinghaus, J.P.; Barnola, J. (30 April 2008). "4 ± 1.5 °C abrupt warming 11,270 yr ago identified from trapped air in Greenland ice". Earth and Planetary Science Letters 268 (3–4): 397–407. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2008.01.032. Bibcode: 2008E&PSL.268..397K.
11. ↑ Taylor, K.C.; White, J; Severinghaus, J; Brook, E; Mayewski, P; Alley, R; Steig, E; Spencer, M et al. (January 2004). "Abrupt climate change around 22 ka on the Siple Coast of Antarctica". Quaternary Science Reviews 23 (1–2): 7–15. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.09.004. Bibcode: 2004QSRv...23....7T.
12. ↑ "Heinrich and Dansgaard–Oeschger Events". NOAA. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/abrupt-climate-change/Heinrich and Dansgaard–Oeschger Events.
13. ↑ Alley, R. B.; Meese, D. A.; Shuman, C. A.; Gow, A. J.; Taylor, K. C.; Grootes, P. M.; White, J. W. C.; Ram, M. et al. (1993). "Abrupt increase in Greenland snow accumulation at the end of the Younger Dryas event". Nature 362 (6420): 527–529. doi:10.1038/362527a0. Bibcode: 1993Natur.362..527A. http://earthsciences.ucr.edu/gcec_pages/docs/Alley et al 1993-Nature-Dryas Snow Rates.pdf.
14. ↑ 14.0 14.1 Manabe, S.; Stouffer, R. J. (1995). "Simulation of abrupt climate change induced by freshwater input to the North Atlantic Ocean". Nature 378 (6553): 165. doi:10.1038/378165a0. Bibcode: 1995Natur.378..165M. http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/sm9501.pdf.
15. ↑ Farley, K. A.; Eltgroth, S. F. (2003). "An alternative age model for the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum using extraterrestrial 3He". Earth and Planetary Science Letters 208 (3–4): 135–148. doi:10.1016/S0012-821X(03)00017-7. Bibcode: 2003E&PSL.208..135F. https://authors.library.caltech.edu/35478/2/mmc1.xls.
16. ↑ Pagani, M.; Caldeira, K.; Archer, D.; Zachos, C. (Dec 2006). "Atmosphere. An ancient carbon mystery". Science 314 (5805): 1556–1557. doi:10.1126/science.1136110. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 17158314.
17. ↑ Zachos, J. C.; Röhl, U.; Schellenberg, S. A.; Sluijs, A.; Hodell, D. A.; Kelly, D. C.; Thomas, E.; Nicolo, M. et al. (Jun 2005). "Rapid acidification of the ocean during the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum". Science 308 (5728): 1611–1615. doi:10.1126/science.1109004. PMID 15947184. Bibcode: 2005Sci...308.1611Z.
18. ↑ Benton, M. J.; Twitchet, R. J. (2003). "How to kill (almost) all life: the end-Permian extinction event". Trends in Ecology & Evolution 18 (7): 358–365. doi:10.1016/S0169-5347(03)00093-4. http://palaeo.gly.bris.ac.uk/Benton/reprints/2003TREEPTr.pdf.
19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 Crowley, T. J.; North, G. R. (May 1988). "Abrupt Climate Change and Extinction Events in Earth History". Science 240 (4855): 996–1002. doi:10.1126/science.240.4855.996. PMID 17731712. Bibcode: 1988Sci...240..996C.
20. ↑ 20.0 20.1 Sahney, S.; Benton, M.J. (2008). "Recovery from the most profound mass extinction of all time". Proceedings of the Royal Society B 275 (1636): 759–65. doi:10.1098/rspb.2007.1370. PMID 18198148.
21. ↑ Alley, R. B.; Mayewski, P. A.; Sowers, T.; Stuiver, M.; Taylor, K. C.; Clark, P. U. (1997). "Holocene climatic instability: A prominent, widespread event 8200 yr ago". Geology 25 (6): 483. doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1997)025<0483:HCIAPW>2.3.CO;2. Bibcode: 1997Geo....25..483A.
22. ↑ Weber; Clark; Kuhn; Timmermann (5 June 2014). "Millennial-scale variability in Antarctic ice-sheet discharge during the last deglaciation". Nature 510 (7503): 134–138. doi:10.1038/nature13397. PMID 24870232. Bibcode: 2014Natur.510..134W.
23. ↑ Gregoire, Lauren (11 July 2012). "Deglacial rapid sea level rises caused by ice-sheet saddle collapses". Nature 487 (7406): 219–222. doi:10.1038/nature11257. PMID 22785319. Bibcode: 2012Natur.487..219G. http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/76493/8/gregoirel1.pdf.
24. ↑ Bond, G.C.; Showers, W.; Elliot, M.; Evans, M.; Lotti, R.; Hajdas, I.; Bonani, G.; Johnson, S. (1999). "The North Atlantic's 1–2 kyr climate rhythm: relation to Heinrich events, Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles and the little ice age". in Clark, P.U.. Mechanisms of Global Change at Millennial Time Scales. Geophysical Monograph. American Geophysical Union, Washington DC. pp. 59–76. ISBN 0-87590-033-X. http://rivernet.ncsu.edu/courselocker/PaleoClimate/Bond et al 1999 N. Atlantic 1-2.PDF.
25. ↑ "Research wins environmental grant" (in en). Oxford Mail. Newsquest. 23 July 2007. https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/1566130.research-wins-environmental-grant/.
26. ↑ "RESET: RESponse of humans to abrupt Environmental Transitions". UK Research and Innovation. https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE/E015670/1.
27. ↑ "RESET". Oxford University. https://c14.arch.ox.ac.uk/reset/index.html.
28. ↑ "RESET - Response of Humans to Abrupt Environmental Transitions - School of Archaeology - University of Oxford". Oxford School of Archaeology. https://projects.arch.ox.ac.uk/REST.html.
29. ↑ McConnell (2017). "Synchronous volcanic eruptions and abrupt climate change ~17.7 ka plausibly linked by stratospheric ozone depletion". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) 114 (38): 10035–10040. doi:10.1073/pnas.1705595114. PMID 28874529. Bibcode: 2017PNAS..11410035M.
30. ↑ 30.0 30.1 Alley, R. B.; Marotzke, J.; Nordhaus, W. D.; Overpeck, J. T.; Peteet, D. M.; Pielke Jr, R. A.; Pierrehumbert, R. T.; Rhines, P. B. et al. (Mar 2003). "Abrupt Climate Change". Science 299 (5615): 2005–2010. doi:10.1126/science.1081056. PMID 12663908. Bibcode: 2003Sci...299.2005A. http://www.unice.fr/coquillard/UE36/Science-2003-Alley-2005-10.pdf.
31. ↑ 31.0 31.1 Mayewski, Paul Andrew (2016). "Abrupt climate change: Past, present and the search for precursors as an aid to predicting events in the future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)". EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts 18: EPSC2016-2567. Bibcode: 2016EGUGA..18.2567M.
32. ↑ "Reduction of deepwater formation in the Greenland Sea during the 1980s: Evidence from tracer data". Science 251 (4997): 1054–1056. 1991. doi:10.1126/science.251.4997.1054. PMID 17802088. Bibcode: 1991Sci...251.1054S.
33. ↑ Rhines, P. B. (2006). "Sub-Arctic oceans and global climate". Weather 61 (4): 109–118. doi:10.1256/wea.223.05. Bibcode: 2006Wthr...61..109R.
34. ↑ Våge, K.; Pickart, R. S.; Thierry, V.; Reverdin, G.; Lee, C. M.; Petrie, B.; Agnew, T. A.; Wong, A. et al. (2008). "Surprising return of deep convection to the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean in winter 2007–2008". Nature Geoscience 2 (1): 67. doi:10.1038/ngeo382. Bibcode: 2009NatGe...2...67V. https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00000/6415/.
35. ↑ Markle (2016). "Global atmospheric teleconnections during Dansgaard–Oeschger events". Nature Geoscience (Nature) 10: 36–40. doi:10.1038/ngeo2848.
36. ↑ "Thermodynamics: Albedo". NSIDC. https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html.
37. ↑ Lenton, Timothy M.; Rockström, Johan; Gaffney, Owen; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (27 November 2019). "Climate tipping points – too risky to bet against" (in en). Nature 575 (7784): 592–595. doi:10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0. PMID 31776487. Bibcode: 2019Natur.575..592L.
38. ↑ Comiso, J. C. (2002). "A rapidly declining perennial sea ice cover in the Arctic". Geophysical Research Letters 29 (20): 17-1–17-4. doi:10.1029/2002GL015650. Bibcode: 2002GeoRL..29.1956C.
39. ↑ Malhi, Y.; Aragao, L. E. O. C.; Galbraith, D.; Huntingford, C.; Fisher, R.; Zelazowski, P.; Sitch, S.; McSweeney, C. et al. (Feb 2009). "Special Feature: Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest". PNAS 106 (49): 20610–20615. doi:10.1073/pnas.0804619106. ISSN 0027-8424. PMID 19218454. PMC 2791614. Bibcode: 2009PNAS..10620610M. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/02/12/0804619106.full.pdf.
40. ↑ Clark, P.U. (December 2008). "Executive Summary". Abrupt Climate Change. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Reston, Virginia: U.S. Geological Survey. pp. 1–7. http://www.globalchange.gov/browse/reports/sap-34-abrupt-climate-change. Retrieved 10 May 2018.
41. ↑ 41.0 41.1 IPCC. "Summary for Policymakers". Sec. 2.6. The Potential for Large-Scale and Possibly Irreversible Impacts Poses Risks that have yet to be Reliably Quantified. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/005.htm. Retrieved 10 May 2018.
42. ↑ 42.0 42.1 Lenton, T. M.; Held, H.; Kriegler, E.; Hall, J. W.; Lucht, W.; Rahmstorf, S.; Schellnhuber, H. J. (2008). "Inaugural Article: Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105 (6): 1786–1793. doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105. PMID 18258748. Bibcode: 2008PNAS..105.1786L.
43. ↑ Praetorius, Summer; Mix, Alan; Jensen, Britta; Froese, Duane; Milne, Glenn; Wolhowe, Matthew; Addison, Jason; Prahl, Fredrick (October 2016). "Interaction between climate, volcanism, and isostatic rebound in Southeast Alaska during the last deglaciation". Earth and Planetary Science Letters 452: 79–89. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2016.07.033. Bibcode: 2016E&PSL.452...79P.
44. ↑ Sahney, S.; Benton, M.J.; Ferry, P.A. (2010). "Links between global taxonomic diversity, ecological diversity and the expansion of vertebrates on land". Biology Letters 6 (4): 544–547. doi:10.1098/rsbl.2009.1024. PMID 20106856.
45. ↑ Scoto, Federico; Sadatzki, Henrik; Maffezzoli, Niccolò; Barbante, Carlo; Gagliardi, Alessandro; Varin, Cristiano; Vallelonga, Paul; Gkinis, Vasileios et al. (2022). "Sea ice fluctuations in the Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea during glacial abrupt climate changes". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 119 (44). doi:10.1073/pnas.2203468119. ISSN 0027-8424. PMID 36279448. Bibcode: 2022PNAS..11903468S.
46. ↑ Trenberth, K. E.; Hoar, T. J. (1997). "El Niño and climate change". Geophysical Research Letters 24 (23): 3057–3060. doi:10.1029/97GL03092. Bibcode: 1997GeoRL..24.3057T.
47. ↑ Meehl, G. A.; Washington, W. M. (1996). "El Niño-like climate change in a model with increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations". Nature 382 (6586): 56–60. doi:10.1038/382056a0. Bibcode: 1996Natur.382...56M. https://zenodo.org/record/1233184.
48. ↑ Broecker, W. S. (1997). "Thermohaline Circulation, the Achilles Heel of Our Climate System: Will Man-Made CO2 Upset the Current Balance?". Science 278 (5343): 1582–1588. doi:10.1126/science.278.5343.1582. PMID 9374450. Bibcode: 1997Sci...278.1582B. http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/arch/docs/broecker_1997.pdf.
49. ↑ Beniston, M.; Jungo, P. (2002). "Shifts in the distributions of pressure, temperature and moisture and changes in the typical weather patterns in the Alpine region in response to the behavior of the North Atlantic Oscillation". Theoretical and Applied Climatology 71 (1–2): 29–42. doi:10.1007/s704-002-8206-7. Bibcode: 2002ThApC..71...29B. http://doc.rero.ch/lm.php?url=1000,43,2,20050718135259-QT/1_bensiton_sdp.pdf.
50. ↑ J. Hansen; M. Sato; P. Hearty; R. Ruedy et al. (2015). "Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming is highly dangerous". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 15 (14): 20059–20179. doi:10.5194/acpd-15-20059-2015. Bibcode: 2015ACPD...1520059H. http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2015-432/. "Our results at least imply that strong cooling in the North Atlantic from AMOC shutdown does create higher wind speed. * * * The increment in seasonal mean wind speed of the northeasterlies relative to preindustrial conditions is as much as 10–20%. Such a percentage increase of wind speed in a storm translates into an increase of storm power dissipation by a factor ~1.4–2, because wind power dissipation is proportional to the cube of wind speed. However, our simulated changes refer to seasonal mean winds averaged over large grid-boxes, not individual storms.* * * Many of the most memorable and devastating storms in eastern North America and western Europe, popularly known as superstorms, have been winter cyclonic storms, though sometimes occurring in late fall or early spring, that generate near-hurricane-force winds and often large amounts of snowfall. Continued warming of low latitude oceans in coming decades will provide more water vapor to strengthen such storms. If this tropical warming is combined with a cooler North Atlantic Ocean from AMOC slowdown and an increase in midlatitude eddy energy, we can anticipate more severe baroclinic storms.".

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* United Kingdom
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Politics

| General|

* Climate change denial
* Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
* United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC / FCCC)
* Global climate regime

|

International|

* Kyoto Protocol
* Clean Development Mechanism
* Joint Implementation
* Bali Road Map
* Copenhagen Summit
* Paris Agreement
* United States withdrawal

Regional policy|

* Clean Power Plan
* California Climate Credit
* European Climate Change Programme
* G8 Climate Change Roundtable
* United Kingdom Climate Change Programme
* Regional climate change initiatives in the United States
* List of climate change initiatives

Protest|

* Extinction Rebellion
* Global Climate March
* List of environmental protests
* School strike for climate

Mitigation

| Emissions reduction|

* Carbon credit
* Carbon-neutral fuel
* Carbon offset
* Carbon tax
* Emissions trading
* Fossil fuel phase-out

|

Carbon-free energy|

* Efficient energy use
* Renewable energy
* Low-carbon economy
* Nuclear power
* Carbon capture and storage
* Energy transition

Personal|

* Individual action on climate change
* Simple living

Other|

* Carbon dioxide removal
* Climate change mitigation scenarios
* Climate engineering
* Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation
* Reforestation
* Urban reforestation

Climate change adaptation

| Strategies|

* Desalination
* Drought tolerance
* Sustainable development
* Weather modification

|

Programmes|

* Land allocation decision support system

Background and theory

| Measurements|

* Satellite measurements

|

Theory|

* Albedo
* Carbon sink
* Climate change (general concept)
* Climate sensitivity
* Cloud forcing
* Feedbacks
* Effective temperature
* Earth's energy budget
* Global warming potential
* Radiative forcing

Research|

* Paleoclimatology
* Paleotempestology
* Climate model

* Glossary
* Index
* Climate change
* Global warming
* Portal

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Original source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abrupt climate change. Read more

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