List of predicted asteroid impacts on Earth

Short description: none

This is a list of asteroids that have impacted Earth after discovery and orbit calculation that predicted the impact in advance, which are cataloged by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS).[1]

As of December 2024[update], all of the asteroids with predicted impacts were under 10 m (33 ft) in size that were discovered just hours before impact, and burned up in the atmosphere as meteors.

Asteroid
designation | Date & time (UTC)
of discovery
Discoverer | Estimated size | Abs.
mag. | Date & time (UTC)
of impact
Warning time | Location of impact | Airburst altitude
Energy | Method of
impact detection | Reference

|
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2008 TC3 | 2008-10-06 06:39
Mt. Lemmon Survey | 3.8–4.4 m (12–14 ft) | 30.72 | 2008-10-07 02:45
20:05 | 20.9 N, 31.8 E
Nubian Desert in Sudan | 50.0 km (31.1 mi)
1 kt | visual, weather satellite,
meteorite recovery | JPL * MPC * [2]
2014 AA | 2014-01-01 06:18
Mt. Lemmon Survey | 2–4 m (6.6–13.1 ft) | 30.95 | 2014-01-02 03:04
20:46 | 13.1 N, 44.2 W
Central Atlantic Ocean | 40.0 km (24.9 mi)
? | infrasound | JPL * MPC * [3]
2018 LA | 2018-06-02 08:14
Mt. Lemmon Survey | 2–5 m (6.6–16.4 ft) | 30.55 | 2018-06-02 16:44
08:29 | 21.3 S, 23.3 E
Botswana/South Africa border | 27.8 km (17.3 mi)
0.3–0.5 kt | visual, infrasound,
meteorite recovery | JPL * MPC * [4][5][6]
2019 MO | 2019-06-22 09:49
ATLAS-MLO | 4–9 m (13–30 ft) | 29.12 | 2019-06-22 21:25
11:36 | 14.9 N, 66.2 W
Caribbean Sea near Puerto Rico | 25.0 km (15.5 mi)
6 kt | visual, infrasound,
weather satellite & radar | JPL * MPC * [7]
2022 EB5 | 2022-03-11 19:24
GINOP-KHK | 1.4–3.2 m (4.6–10.5 ft) | 31.33 | 2022-03-11 21:22
01:58 | 70.0 N, 9.1 W
Jan Mayen, northern Atlantic Ocean | 33.3 km (20.7 mi)
4 kt | visual, infrasound | JPL * MPC * [8][9]
2022 WJ1 | 2022-11-19 04:53
Mt. Lemmon Survey | 0.4–0.6 m (1.3–2.0 ft) | 33.58 | 2022-11-19 08:26
03:33 | 43.0 N, 81.7 W
Ontario, Canada | 95.5 km (59.3 mi)
? | visual, radar | JPL * MPC * [10][11]
2023 CX1 | 2023-02-12 20:18
GINOP-KHK | 0.8–1.7 m (2.6–5.6 ft) | 32.72 | 2023-02-13 02:59
06:41 | 49.8 N, 0.4 E
Northwestern France | 50.0 km (31.1 mi)
? | visual, meteorite recovery | JPL * MPC * [12][13]
2024 BX1 | 2024-01-20 21:48
GINOP-KHK | <0.5 m (1.6 ft) | 32.71 | 2024-01-21 00:32
02:44 | 52.6 N, 12.6 E
Berlin, Germany | 21.3 km (13.2 mi)
? | visual, meteorite recovery | JPL * MPC * [14][15]
2024 RW1 | 2024-09-04 05:43
Mt. Lemmon Survey | 1–2.5 m (3.3–8.2 ft) | 32.20 | 2024-09-04 16:39
10:55 | 18.0 N, 122.9 E
Pacific Ocean near Luzon, Philippines | 25.0 km (15.5 mi)
0.2 kt | visual | JPL * MPC * [16][17]
2024 UQ | 2024-10-22 09:08
ATLAS-HKO | 0.8–1.6 m (2.6–5.2 ft) | 32.66 | 2024-10-22 10:54
01:46 | 30.0 N, 136.0 W
Eastern Pacific | 38.2 km (23.7 mi)
0.15 kt | weather satellite  | JPL * MPC * [18][19]
2024 XA1 | 2024-12-03 05:55
Kitt Peak-Bok | 0.7–1.5 m (2.3–4.9 ft) | 32.95 | 2024-12-03 16:14
10:19 | 60.9 N, 119.5 E
Eastern Siberia | 50.0 km (31.1 mi)
? | visual | JPL * MPC * [20][21]

## See also

* Asteroid impact prediction

## References

1. ↑ "Pre-Impact Detections". NASA/JPL CNEOS. https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/pi.
2. ↑ Shaddad, Muawia H. (October 2010). "The recovery of asteroid 2008 TC3". Meteoritics & Planetary Science 45 (10–11): 1557–1589. doi:10.1111/j.1945-5100.2010.01116.x. Bibcode: 2010M&PS...45.1557S. http://asima.seti.org/2008TC3/papers/maps1116-1296.pdf. Retrieved 2024-01-27.2008+TC3&rft.jtitle=Meteoritics+&+Planetary+Science&rft.aulast=Shaddad&rft.aufirst=Muawia+H.&rft.au=Shaddad, Muawia+H.&rft.date=October+2010&rft.volume=45&rft.issue=10–11&rft.pages=1557–1589&rft_id=info:doi/10.1111/j.1945-5100.2010.01116.x&rft_id=info:bibcode/2010M&PS...45.1557S;&rft_id=http://asima.seti.org/2008TC3/papers/maps1116-1296.pdf&rfr_id=info:sid/en.wikibooks.org:Astronomy:List_of_predicted_asteroid_impacts_on_Earth">
3. ↑ Beatty, Kelly (January 2, 2014). "Small asteroid 2014 AA hits Earth". Sky & Telescope. http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/small-asteroid-2014-aa-hitsearth/.
4. ↑ Malik, Tariq (June 4, 2018). "A Tiny Asteroid Just Hit Earth, Sparking a Fireball Over South Africa (Video)". Space.com. https://www.space.com/40783-tiny-asteroid-hits-earth-2018-la-video.html.
5. ↑ Gulon, Tioga (July 3, 2018). "Asteroid 2018 LA hit the atmosphere over Botswana on June 2". News. International Meteor Organization. https://www.imo.net/asteroid-2018-la-hit-the-atmosphere-over-botswana-on-june-2/.
6. ↑ King, Bob (July 6, 2018). "First Fragment Of Shattered Asteroid Recovered In Botswana". Duluth News Tribune. https://www.duluthnewstribune.com/first-fragment-of-shattered-asteroid-recovered-in-botswana.
7. ↑ Geggel, Laura (June 28, 2019). "Astronomers Spotted a Car-Size Asteroid Just Hours Before Impact". Space.com. https://www.space.com/car-size-asteroid-hits-earth.html.
8. ↑ Baker, Harry (March 16, 2022). "Fridge-size asteroid detected just 2 hours before it slammed into Earth". Live Science. https://www.livescience.com/asteroid-discovered-before-hitting-earth.
9. ↑ Antier, Karl (March 13, 2022). "2022 EB5 : 5th predicted Earth impact!". News (International Meteor Organization). https://www.imo.net/2022-eb5-5th-predicted-earth-impactor-asteroid-on-march-11/.
10. ↑ "NASA Program Predicted Impact of Small Asteroid Over Ontario, Canada". NASA/JPL. November 22, 2022. https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasa-program-predicted-impact-of-small-asteroid-over-ontario-canada.
11. ↑ "Meteorite Falls: Grimsby, Ontario". NASA Johnson Space Center Astromaterials Research & Exploration Science. https://ares.jsc.nasa.gov/meteorite-falls/events/grimsby-ontario.
12. ↑ "CNEOS Predicts Another Small Asteroid Impact, This One over Northwestern France". NASA/JPL CNEOS. February 14, 2023. https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news209.html.
13. ↑ Green, Daniel W. E. (March 6, 2023). "CBET 5230 : 2023 CX_1". Central Bureau Electronic Telegrams (5230). http://www.cbat.eps.harvard.edu/iau/cbet/005200/CBET005230.txt.
14. ↑ Price, Kiley (January 23, 2024). "Scientists discover near-Earth asteroid hours before it exploded over Berlin". Space.com. https://www.space.com/scientists-discover-near-earth-asteroid-hours-before-it-exploded-over-berlin.
15. ↑ Rea, Robert (January 31, 2024). "Meteorites from Asteroid 2024 Bx1, which just hit Earth, may be super-rare space rocks". Space.com. https://www.space.com/asteroid-2024-bx1-rare-space-rock-germany-earth-impact.
16. ↑ James Dinneen, Matthew Sparkes (September 4, 2024). "A small asteroid hit Earth and burned up over the Philippines". New Scientist. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2446397-a-small-asteroid-hit-earth-and-burned-up-over-the-philippines/.
17. ↑ Brett Tingley (2024-09-04). "Tiny asteroid burns up over Philippines. 'Discovered this morning,' ESA says". Space.com. https://www.space.com/asteroid-earth-impact-september-2024-rw1.
18. ↑ Green, Daniel (October 22, 2024). "2024 UQ". http://www.cbat.eps.harvard.edu/iau/cbet/005400/CBET005465.txt.
19. ↑ Brett Tingley (2024-11-08). "An asteroid hit Earth just hours after being detected. It was the 3rd 'imminent impactor' of 2024". Space.com. https://www.space.com/the-universe/asteroids/asteroid-that-hit-earth-hours-after-being-detected-was-3rd-imminent-impactor-of-2024.
20. ↑ Brett Tingley (2024-12-03). "Tiny asteroid detected hours before hitting Earth to become 4th 'imminent impactor' of 2024". Space.com. https://www.space.com/the-universe/asteroids/tiny-asteroid-detected-hours-before-hitting-earth-to-become-4th-imminent-impactor-of-2024.
21. ↑ Vishwam Sankaran (2024-12-04). "Asteroid on collision course with Russia burns up in spectacular fireball". Space.com. https://www.independent.co.uk/space/asteroid-collision-earth-russia-siberia-fireball-b2658439.html.

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Asteroids

Main|

* Notable asteroids
* Physical characteristics
* dynamic method
* Impact avoidance
* Tracking
* Capture
* Gravitational keyhole
* Earth-crosser
* Close approaches
* Binary
* moon
* contact
* P–L

Distribution|

* Interior to Earth
* vulcanoids
* Mercury-crossers
* Venus-crossers
* Main-belt
* Kirkwood gap
* comets
* Trojans
* Venus trojan
* Earth
* Mars
* Jupiter
* Uranus trojan
* Neptune trojan
* Near-Earth
* Aten
* Amor
* Apollo
* Apohele
* Earth-crossers
* Between Earth and the main belt
* Mars crossers
* Mars trojans
* Outer Solar System, does not include distant minor planets
* Jupiter-crossers
* Jupiter trojan

Classification|

| Orbital|

* Group
* Family
* (list)

|

Spectral|

| Tholen|

* C-group
* B-type
* F-type
* G-type
* C-type
* S-type
* X-group
* M-type
* E-type
* P-type
* small classes
* A-type
* D-type
* J-type
* T-type
* Q-type
* R-type
* V-type

|

SMASS|

* C-group
* B-type
* C-type
* Cg
* Ch
* Cgh
* Cb
* S-group
* A-type
* Q-type
* R-type
* K-type
* L-type
* S-type
* Sa
* Sq
* Sr
* Sk
* Sl
* X-group
* X-type
* Xe
* Xc
* Xk
* small types
* T-type
* D-type
* Ld-type
* O-type
* V-type

Exploration|

* Asteroid Redirect Mission
* Asteroids visited by spacecraft
* Mining
* Ceres
* Colonization
* Near-Earth Object Surveillance Mission

Lists|

* Near-Earth
* Minor planets
* Lost
* Discovering observatories
* Space missions

* See also: Asteroids in fiction
* Asteroids in astrology
* occultation
* Comet
* Minor planet

* Category

* v
* t
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Modern impact events

On Earth|

| Pre-2000|

* 1490 Ch'ing-yang
* 1783 Great Meteor
* 1860 Great Meteor
* 1896 Madrid Meteor
* 1908 Tunguska
* 1913 Great Meteor Procession
* 1930 Curuçá River
* 1938 Chicora meteor
* 1947 Sikhote-Alin meteorite
* 1969 Murchison meteorite
* 1972 Great Daylight Fireball
* 1990 Earth-grazing meteoroid

|

Post-2000|

* 2002 Eastern Mediterranean
* 2002 Vitim
* 2007 Carancas
* 2008 TC3 impact
* 2008 Buzzard Coulee meteorite
* 2009 Sulawesi superbolide
* 2012 Sutter's Mill meteorite
* 2012 UK meteoroid
* 2012 Novato meteorite
* 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor
* Chelyabinsk meteorite
* 2014 AA impact
* 2014 Ontario fireball
* 2015 Kerala meteorite
* 2015 Thailand bolide
* WT1190F impact
* 2017 China bolide
* 2018 LA impact
* 2018 Kamchatka meteor
* 2019 MO impact

On Jupiter|

* 1994 Comet Shoemaker–Levy 9
* 2009 Jupiter impact
* 2010 Jupiter impact

Lists|

* Asteroid close approaches to Earth
* Comets
* Bolides
* Meteor air bursts
* Meteorite falls
* Minor planets
* crossing Earth's orbit

See also|

* Asteroid impact prediction
* Asteroid impact avoidance
* Bolide
* Earth-grazing fireball
* Meteor procession
* Meteor shower
* Meteorite
* Meteoroid
* Near-Earth object
* Potentially hazardous object

* v
* t
* e

Planetary defense

Main topics|

* Asteroid
* Bolide
* Earth-grazing fireball
* Impact event
* List of meteor air bursts
* Meteor procession
* Meteor shower
* Meteorite
* Meteoroid
* Near-Earth object
* Potentially hazardous object

Defense|

* Asteroid impact avoidance
* Asteroid laser ablation
* Gravity tractor
* Ion-beam shepherd
* Asteroid close approaches
* Earth-crossing minor planets
* Damage scales
* Palermo scale
* Torino scale

Space probes|

* Dawn
* Deep Impact
* AIDA
* Hera
* DART
* Halley Armada
* Hayabusa
* Hayabusa2
* MASCOT
* NEAR Shoemaker
* NEA Scout
* New Horizons
* OSIRIS-REx
* PROCYON
* Rosetta
* Philae
* Stardust

NEO tracking|

* ATLAS
* Catalina Sky Survey
* LINEAR
* LONEOS
* NEAT
* NEOSSat
* NEOCam
* NEODyS
* OGS Telescope
* Orbit@home
* Pan-STARRS
* SCAP
* Sentinel Space Telescope
* Sentry
* Spacewatch
* WISE

Organizations|

* B612 Foundation
* Japan Spaceguard Association
* Meteoritical Society
* NEOShield
* Spaceguard
* The Spaceguard Foundation
* Space Situational Awareness Programme
* Planetary Defense Coordination Office

Potential threats|

* 1950 DA
* 1994 WR12
* 101955 Bennu
* 2002 MN
* (410777) 2009 FD
* 2010 RF12
* 99942 Apophis

Films / video|

* The End of the World (1916)
* When Worlds Collide (1951)
* Gorath (1962)
* The Green Slime (1968)
* The Paradise Syndrome (1968)
* A Fire in the Sky (1978)
* Meteor (1979)
* NOVA: Doomsday Asteroid (1995)
* Asteroid (1997)
* Deep Impact (1998)
* Armageddon (1998)
* Judgment Day (1999)
* Post Impact (2004)
* Deadly Skies (2006)
* Super Comet: After the Impact (2007)
* Impact (2009)
* NOVA: Last Extinction (2009)
* Meteor Storm (2010)
* HORIZON: Asteroids–The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (2010)
* Melancholia (2011)
* NOVA: Meteor Strike (2013)
* NOVA: Asteroid: Doomsday or Payday? (2013)
* Impact Earth (2015)
* Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)

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