Hyperinflation in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia

Short description: Hyperinflation in Yugoslavia between March 1992 and January 1994

A 500 billion dinar banknote, which was the largest denomination banknote printed in Yugoslavia.

Between 1992 and 1994, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) experienced the second-longest period of hyperinflation in world economic history.[1] This period spanned 22 months, from March 1992 to January 1994. Inflation peaked at a monthly rate of 313 million percent in January 1994.[2] Daily inflation was 62%, with an inflation rate of 2.03% in 1 hour being higher than the annual inflation rate of many developed countries. The inflation rate in January 1994, converted to annual levels, reached 116,545,906,563,330 percent (116.546 trillion percent, or 1.16 × 1014 percent). During this period of hyperinflation in FR Yugoslavia, store prices were stated in conditional units – point, which was equal to the German mark. The conversion was made either in German marks or in dinars at the current "black market" exchange rate that often changed several times per day.[3]

## Contents

* 1 Stabilization program
* 2 In popular culture
* 3 References
* 4 Further reading

## Stabilization program

Hyperinflation in the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was managed with a heterodox stabilization program. At the beginning of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), an orthodox program was applied instead. Both were relatively successful solutions in the short term, however they were not successful in the long term, which caused them to collapse.

Already at the beginning of 1994, another stabilization program under the name Monetary Reconstruction Program and Economic Recovery (known as the "Avramović Program") was in effect.

Dragoslav Avramović' signature

Program professor Dr. Dragoslav Avramović (Monetary Reconstruction and Economic Recovery Program) was adopted in early 1994 after a record hyperinflation that Yugoslavia had previously experienced. It was Yugoslavia in the period 1992–1994. It recorded the third-worst hyperinflation in world economic history, both by its duration of 22 months (March 1992 – January 1994), and at the maximum monthly level (January 1994) of 313,563,558 percent. Such devastating hyperinflation resulted in a drastic deterioration of all important economic indicators. 1993 saw a decline in GDP of 30%, a decrease in investments and industrial production of 37%, and unemployment reached 24.1%. At the same time, there was a huge budget deficit in a situation where public revenues were rapidly decreasing (the decline in tax base due to the decline in economic activity, and – due to the sanctions on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia – a significant increase in the "grey economy", which is why a large part of the so-called reduced social product remained untapped, etc.), and public expenditures increased significantly (because of increased social benefits due to deterioration of the economic situation in the country, economic and war support to the insurgent Serbian people in Bosnia and Croatia, the launching of the Bosnian and Croatian wars of independence, refugee assistance, etc.)

The budget deficit was largely financed from the primary issue, and this monetization of the budget deficit was the main cause of hyperinflation. Accordingly, the main measures of Avramović's program were primarily related to the monetary and fiscal sphere, and it can be concluded that this was an orthodox stabilization program. The stabilization program should, above all, accomplish:

– breaking the hyperinflation and returning the lost money function to the dinar,

– to enable fast and stable economic growth,

– a significant increase in wages (drastically depreciated during the period of hyperinflation) and ensuring the minimum safety of all citizens,

– essential reform of the economic system, especially in the financial sphere, and accelerating the transition process, etc.

At the same time, it was necessary to create conditions for the abolition of international sanctions as soon as possible and to open the economy abroad, without which the Program can not be fully implemented. Since it had become clear that the abolition of international economic sanctions could not wait, in order to join the breakdown of devastating hyperinflation, it was decided to start developing and implementing a stabilization program to be realized in two phases.[4]

The first, short-term phase envisaged monetary reconstruction and anti-inflationary measures aimed at breaking down hyperinflation. It was supposed to be realized in the first 6 months with its own forces, even under conditions of economic sanctions by the international community. The second, long-term phase envisioned essential economic reforms that (while preserving the stability achieved in the first phase) would lead to the economic recovery of the country, which would ensure long-term stable economic growth with an optimal employment rate and the growth of citizens' standards. This phase, as the authors of the Program have pointed out, assumed the abolition of economic sanctions and the flow of "fresh" capital needed for its realization. Since this assumption was not achieved, this second phase had no chance of significant success, as was the case with the first phase of the Program. Therefore, we will only detail the first stage of the Avramović program, because the implementation of the second phase did not occur, as international economic sanctions had not been abolished in the meantime. The first phase of the Monetary Reconstruction Program was realized under conditions of economic sanctions, without aid or any capital inflows, with initial foreign exchange reserves amounting to about 300 million German marks.[4]

It can be said that in the framework of the Monetary Reconstruction Program, the basic measures were focused on monetary policy, monetary reforms, and fiscal policy. Life in the country after the implementation of the stabilization program began to slowly return to normal. However, it is also important to point out that in these two years, thanks to the gray money issue, according to the estimates of economists from that period, 4.7 billion DEM from the citizens were bought.

The National Bank of Yugoslavia issued 33 banknotes during the stated hyperinflation period, of which 24 were issued in 1993. Yugoslav hyperinflation lasted for 24 months, which is longer than the German crisis after World War I, which lasted 16 months, the Greek crisis, which lasted 13 months, and the Hungarian crisis, which lasted 12 months.[4]

## In popular culture

* A Diary of Insults (1994)
* The Wounds (1998)
* Three Palms for Two Punks and a Babe (1998)
* Celts (2021)

## References

1. ↑ Hanke, Steve H. (2007-05-07). "The World's Greatest Unreported Hyperinflation". https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/worlds-greatest-unreported-hyperinflation.
2. ↑ Bogetic, Zeljko; Petrovic, Pavle; Vujosevic, Zorica (1999-02-01). "The Yugoslav Hyperinflation of 1992-1994: Causes, Dynamics, and Money Supply Process". Journal of Comparative Economics 27 (2): 335–353. doi:10.1006/jcec.1999.1577. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/4969125.
3. ↑ O'Rourke, Breffni (9 April 2008). "Yugoslavia: Montenegro Adopts German Mark As Currency -- But With Risks" (in en). Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. https://www.rferl.org/a/1095132.html.
4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 Petrović, Pavle; Bogetić, Željko; Vujošević, Zorica (1999). "The Yugoslav Hyperinflation of 1992–1994: Causes, Dynamics, and Money Supply Process". Journal of Comparative Economics 27 (2): 335–353. doi:10.1006/jcec.1999.1577.

## Further reading

* Allen, Larry (2009). The Encyclopedia of Money (2nd ed.). Santa Barbara, CA: ABC-CLIO. pp. 227–228. ISBN 978-1598842517. https://archive.org/details/encyclopediamone00alle.

* v
* t
* e

Financial crises

* Banking panic
* Bear market
* Credit crunch
* Credit cycle
* Currency crisis
* Debt crisis
* Energy crisis
* Flash crash
* Hyperinflation
* Liquidity crisis
* Minsky moment
* Stock market crash

Pre–1000|

* Crisis of the Third Century (CE 235–284)

1000–1760|

* Great Bullion Famine (c. 1400–c. 1500)
* The Great Debasement (1544–1551)
* Kipper und Wipper (1621–1623)
* Tulip mania crash (1637)
* South Sea bubble crash (1720)
* Mississippi bubble crash (1720–1721)

1760–1840|

* Amsterdam banking crisis of 1763
* Bengal bubble crash (1769–1784)
* Crisis of 1772
* Dutch Republic financial collapse (c. 1780–1795)
* Panic of 1785
* Copper Panic of 1789
* Panic of 1792
* Panic of 1796–97
* Danish state bankruptcy of 1813
* Panic of 1819
* Panic of 1825
* Panic of 1837

1840–1870|

* Panic of 1847
* Panic of 1857
* Panic of 1866
* Black Friday (1869)

1870–1914|

* Panic of 1873
* Paris Bourse crash of 1882
* Panic of 1884
* Arendal crash (1886)
* Baring crisis (1890)
* Encilhamento (1890–1893)
* Panic of 1893
* Australian banking crisis of 1893
* Black Monday (1894)
* Panic of 1896
* Panic of 1901
* Panic of 1907
* Shanghai rubber stock market crisis (1910)
* Panic of 1910–11

1918–1939|

* Early Soviet hyperinflation (1917–1924)
* Weimar Republic hyperinflation (1921–1923)
* Shōwa financial crisis (1927)
* Wall Street Crash of 1929
* Panic of 1930

1945–1973|

* Kennedy Slide of 1962

1973–1982|

* 1970s energy crisis (1973–1980)
* 1973 oil crisis
* 1973–74 stock market crash
* Secondary banking crisis of 1973–1975
* Latin American debt crisis (1975–1982)
* 1976 IMF crisis
* 1979 oil crisis
* Brazilian hyperinflation (1980–1982)

1982–2007|

* Brazilian hyperinflation (1982–1994)
* Souk Al-Manakh stock market crash (1982)
* Chilean crisis of 1982
* 1983 Israel bank stock crisis
* Black Saturday (1983)
* Savings and loan crisis (1986–1995)
* Black Monday (1987)
* 1988–1992 Norwegian banking crisis
* Friday the 13th mini-crash (1989)
* Japanese asset price bubble crash (1990–1992)
* 1990 oil price shock
* Rhode Island banking crisis (1990–1992)
* 1991 Indian economic crisis
* 1990s Swedish banking crisis (1991–1992)
* 1990s Finnish banking crisis (1991–1993)
* 1990s Armenian energy crisis (1991–1995)
* Cuban Special Period (1991–2000)
* Black Wednesday (1992)
* 1992 Colombian energy crisis
* 1994 bond market crisis
* Venezuelan banking crisis of 1994
* Mexican peso crisis (1994)
* 1997 Asian financial crisis
* October 27, 1997 mini-crash
* 1998 Russian financial crisis
* 1998–99 Ecuador financial crisis
* Samba effect (1999)
* California electricity crisis (2000–01)
* Dot-com bubble crash (2000–2004)
* 2001 Turkish economic crisis
* 9/11 stock market crash (2001)
* Stock market downturn of 2002
* South American economic crisis of 2002
* 2002 Uruguay banking crisis
* 2003 Myanmar banking crisis
* 2000s energy crisis (2003–2008)
* 2004 Argentine energy crisis
* Nigerian energy supply crisis (2005–)
* 2007 Chinese stock bubble crash
* Zimbabwean hyperinflation (2007–)

2007–08|

* U.S. housing market correction (2006–07)
* 2008 Bulgarian energy crisis
* 2008 Central Asia energy crisis
* 2008 Latvian financial crisis
* 2008–09 Belgian financial crisis
* 2008–09 Russian financial crisis
* 2008–09 Ukrainian financial crisis
* 2008–2011 Icelandic financial crisis
* 2008–2011 Irish banking crisis
* 2008–2014 Spanish financial crisis
* European debt crisis
* Greek government-debt crisis
* Subprime mortgage crisis
* U.S. bear market of 2007–2009

Post–2008|

* 2009 Ecuador electricity crisis
* 2009 Dubai debt standstill
* Venezuelan banking crisis of 2009–10
* 2010 Flash Crash
* 2010–2014 Portuguese financial crisis
* Energy crisis in Venezuela (2010–)
* 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami stock market crash
* August 2011 stock markets fall
* 2011 Bangladesh share market scam
* 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis
* 2013 Chinese banking liquidity crisis
* Venezuela economic crisis (2013–)
* Gaza electricity crisis (2013–)
* 2014–2016 Brazilian economic crisis
* Puerto Rican government-debt crisis (2014–)
* 2014–2017 Russian financial crisis
* 2015–16 Chinese stock market turbulence
* 2015–16 stock market selloff
* Zulia energy collapse (2015–)
* Brexit stock market crash (2016)
* 2016 Southeastern U.S. gas shortage
* Venezuelan hyperinflation (2016–)
* 2017 Sri Lankan fuel crisis
* Ghana banking crisis (2017–18)
* 2018 cryptocurrency crash
* 2018 Turkish currency and debt crisis

* List of banking crises
* List of economic crises
* List of sovereign debt crises
* List of stock market crashes and bear markets

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