State legislative battleground chambers, 2016

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2016 State
Legislative Elections

2018 »

« 2014

Part 1: Overview
Part 2: Battlegrounds
Part 3: Competitiveness
Impact of term limits
Part 4: Elections by state
Election dates
2016 Elections

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Of the 86 state legislative chambers with  2016 elections, Ballotpedia identified 20 battleground chambers where one party might have, realistically, toppled the other party from its position of majority control.

HIGHLIGHTS

* Republicans controlled almost twice as many battleground chambers (13) as did Democrats (7), putting them at greater partisan risk of losing chambers.

* All 11 of the chambers that flipped party control in 2014 went to Republicans.

* U.S. state legislatures were overwhelmingly controlled by Republicans, who held 69 of the 99 chambers in the country.

## Contents

* 1 Overview
* 1.1 Priority for both parties
* 2 What made our list
* 2.1 How the chambers were selected
* 3 Battleground chambers by state
* 4 Colorado
* 4.1 Senate
* 4.2 House
* 4.3 Battleground context
* 4.3.1 Competitiveness
* 4.3.2 Races we watched
* 4.3.3 State Senate District 19
* 4.3.4 State Senate District 25
* 4.3.5 State Senate District 26
* 4.3.6 State House District 3
* 4.3.7 State House District 30
* 4.3.8 State House District 31
* 5 Iowa
* 5.1 Senate
* 5.2 House
* 5.3 Battleground context
* 5.3.1 Competitiveness
* 5.3.2 Races we watched
* 5.3.3 State Senate District 26
* 5.3.4 State Senate District 28
* 5.3.5 State Senate District 30
* 5.3.6 State Senate District 32
* 5.3.7 State Senate District 34
* 5.3.8 State Senate District 36
* 5.3.9 State Senate District 46
* 5.3.10 State House District 15
* 5.3.11 State House District 30
* 5.3.12 State House District 51
* 5.3.13 State House District 55 (general)
* 5.3.14 State House District 58
* 5.3.15 State House District 67
* 5.3.16 State House District 95
* 6 Kentucky
* 6.1 House
* 6.2 Battleground context
* 6.2.1 2016 special elections
* 6.2.2 Competitiveness
* 6.2.3 Races we watched
* 6.2.4 State House District 3
* 6.2.5 State House District 8
* 6.2.6 State House District 20
* 6.2.7 State House District 23 (general)
* 6.2.8 State House District 38
* 6.2.9 State House District 46
* 6.2.10 State House District 50
* 6.2.11 State House District 70
* 6.2.12 State House District 78
* 6.2.13 State House District 91
* 6.2.14 State House District 94
* 6.2.15 State House District 99
* 7 Maine
* 7.1 Senate
* 7.2 House
* 7.3 Battleground context
* 7.3.1 2014 campaign contributions
* 7.3.2 Competitiveness
* 7.4 Races we watched
* 8 Michigan
* 8.1 Battleground context
* 8.1.1 Competitiveness
* 8.1.2 Races we watched
* 9 Minnesota
* 9.1 Senate
* 9.2 House
* 9.3 Battleground context
* 9.3.1 Democrats
* 9.3.2 Republicans
* 9.3.3 Special election
* 9.4 Races we watched
* 10 Nevada
* 10.1 Senate
* 10.2 Battleground context
* 10.2.1 Competitiveness
* 10.3 Races we watched
* 11 New Hampshire
* 11.1 Senate
* 11.2 House
* 11.3 Battleground context
* 11.3.1 State Senate
* 11.3.2 State House
* 11.3.3 Presidential election
* 11.3.4 Competitiveness
* 11.4 Races we watched
* 12 New Mexico
* 12.1 Senate
* 12.2 House
* 12.3 Battleground context
* 12.3.1 State Senate
* 12.3.2 State House
* 12.3.3 Competitiveness
* 12.4 Races we watched
* 13 New York
* 13.1 Senate
* 13.2 Battleground context
* 13.2.1 Competitiveness
* 13.3 Races we watched
* 14 Washington
* 14.1 Senate
* 14.2 House
* 14.3 Battleground context
* 14.3.1 Senate
* 14.3.2 House
* 14.3.3 Competitiveness
* 14.4 Races we watched
* 15 West Virginia
* 15.1 Senate
* 15.2 Battleground context
* 15.2.1 Voter turnout
* 15.2.2 Competitiveness
* 15.3 Races we watched
* 16 Wisconsin
* 16.1 Senate
* 16.2 Battleground context
* 16.2.1 Competitiveness
* 16.3 Races we watched
* 16.4 Chambers targeted by the DLCC and RSLC
* 16.4.1 Democratic targets
* 16.4.1.1 DLCC's 2016 Essential Races
* 16.4.2 Republican targets
* 16.4.2.1 RSLC's 16 in '16: Races to Watch
* 16.5 See also
* 16.6 Footnotes

## Overview[edit]

Ballotpedia defines a "battleground chamber" as a chamber that might:

* Switch partisan control as a result of the 2016 elections
* Become significantly better positioned to switch hands in 2018

In 2014's state legislative elections, 11 chambers flipped from Democratic to Republican control, and no chambers flipped from Republican to Democratic control. Nine of the chambers that flipped in 2014 to Republican control are included in our 2016 list of battleground chambers. The Nevada State Assembly and West Virginia state House moved into the Republican column in 2014. However, they are not included in our 2016 list of battleground chambers because we judge that they are unlikely to change partisan control as a result of this November's election.

Many of the top 20 chambers feature a difference in partisan balance between Democrats and Republicans that amounts to less than 10 percent of each chamber. This is the case in 12 battleground chambers. The 400-member New Hampshire state House is a unique case because it is prone to dramatic swings in partisan balance.

In the 50 states, there are 99 state legislative chambers altogether, and 86 of the 99 chambers held state legislative elections on November 8, 2016.

### Priority for both parties[edit]

In 2013, Democracy for America (DFA) started the "Purple to Blue" project, a national multi-year effort to flip Republican state legislative chambers across the country to Democratic. Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean (D) founded the political action committee in 2004 to "elect more progressive candidates to local, state and national office by providing the tools to create change."[1][2]

In 2016, DFA targeted state legislative chambers in Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Washington State.[3]

Through hybrid PAC Advantage 2020, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee aimed to flip key state legislatures with the end goal of controlling the redistricting process in 2021.[4] The PAC was set up to spend a minimum of $70 million between 2014 and 2020 on state-level races.[4] However, on June 6, 2016, Advantage 2020 filed termination paperwork with the FEC, thus terminating the group.[5] In 2015, Advantage 2020 made several contributions to several groups and campaigns, including $250,000 to the Democratic Party of Virginia and several in-kind contributions with the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, totaling almost $70,000.[6] Those efforts yielded little results, as Democrats only picked up one seat in the Virginia House. There was no change to the partisan balance of the Virginia Senate after 2015.

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) announced on July 30, 2015, that it planned to spend $40 million on state legislative races in the 2016 election cycle, with the goal of maintaining current Republican dominance in state legislatures.[7]

## What made our list[edit]

Twenty chambers in 13 states made Ballotpedia's list of elections to watch. Those states and chambers were:

* Colorado (S) (H)
* Iowa (S) (H)
* Kentucky (H)
* Maine (S) (H)
* Michigan (H)
* Minnesota (S) (H)
* Nevada (S)
* New Hampshire (S) (H)
* New Mexico (S) (H)
* New York (S)
* Washington (S) (H)
* West Virginia (S)
* Wisconsin (S)

2018 →

<- 2014

State legislative battlegrounds
What made our list
Colorado • Iowa • Kentucky • Maine • Michigan • Minnesota • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Mexico • New York
Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin

* * *

Chambers targeted by
legislative campaign committees
2016 State Legislative Battleground Chambers

Chamber  | Seats  | 2016 pre-election control  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | 2012 post-election control  | 2010 post-election control
New York Senate | 63 |  | 1 | 1.6% |  |
Washington Senate | 49 |  | 1 | 2.0% |  |
Washington House | 98 |  | 2 | 2.0% |  |
Colorado Senate | 35 |  | 1 | 2.9% |  |
Colorado House | 65 |  | 3 | 4.6% |  |
Nevada Senate | 21 |  | 1 | 4.8% |  |
New Mexico House | 70 |  | 4 | 5.7% |  |
West Virginia Senate | 34 |  | 2 | 5.9% |  |
Iowa Senate | 50 |  | 3 | 6.0% |  |
Kentucky House | 100 |  | 6 | 6.0% |  |
Maine House | 151 |  | 9 | 6.12% |  |
Minnesota House | 134 |  | 12 | 9.0% |  |
Iowa House | 100 |  | 14 | 14.0% |  |
Maine Senate | 35 |  | 5 | 14.3% |  |
New Mexico Senate | 42 |  | 6 | 14.3% |  | N/A[8]
Michigan House | 110 |  | 16 | 14.6% |  |
Wisconsin Senate | 33 |  | 5 | 15.2% |  |
Minnesota Senate | 67 |  | 11 | 16.4% |  |
New Hampshire Senate | 24 |  | 4 | 16.7% |  |
New Hampshire House | 400 |  | 75 | 19% |  |

### How the chambers were selected[edit]

* Partisan balance of the chamber
* Has the chamber flipped in recent elections?
* 2016 election poised to create momentum toward a 2018 flip
* How many seats are competitive or mildly competitive in recent elections
* Presidential election results in 2012 and 2008
* State government trifectas
* Targets by the DLCC and the RSLC

It was not expected that all chambers listed on this page would flip partisan control in 2016. Chambers like Wisconsin's State Senate were very close prior to the election, yet were unlikely to switch control. Nevertheless, there were viable scenarios where one party could gain enough seats to split the chamber or even just gain momentum in order to position for future elections. See each state's election overview for analysis throughout the year.

## Battleground chambers by state[edit]

# Colorado[edit]

Colorado Legislature

State Senate

Seats up: 18 out of 35
Margin of control: 1
% Margin of control: 2.9%
Pre-election control:
State House
Seats up: 65 out of 65
Margin of control: 3
% Margin of control: 4.6%
Pre-election control:
Presidential election
2012: President Obama
2008: President Obama

Partisan balance in the Colorado State Senate remained the same. Democrats picked up three seats in the state House.

Main articles: Colorado State Senate elections, 2016 and Colorado House of Representatives elections, 2016

Before the Republican Party took control of the Colorado State Senate in the 2014 election, the last time that the party held the majority was in 2004. The Democratic Party regained control of the state House in 2012. From 1992 to 2013, the Democratic Party was the majority in the state House for seven years, while the Republican Party was the majority for the other 15 years.

Since the creation of the Colorado State Legislature in 1876, the Republican Party has held the majority in both chambers for the greatest amount of time. Republicans have controlled the Senate for 96 years and the House for 94 years. Democrats have controlled the Senate for 44 years and the House for 42 years.

Heading into the general election, Colorado was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas.

### Senate[edit]

The Colorado Senate had a difference in partisan balance between Democrats and Republicans of just one seat, amounting to about 2.9 percent of the chamber. In 2014, Democrats controlled the Senate by the same margin.

Partisan balance of the Colorado State Senate

Election year  | Seats  | Seats up  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 35 | 20 | 5 | 14.28% |  |
2014 | 35 | 18 | 1 | 2.9% |  |
2016 | 35 | 18 | 1 | 2.9% |  |

### House[edit]

The Colorado House had a difference in partisan balance between Democrats and Republicans of three seats, or 4.6 percent of the chamber. In 2014, a year which saw Republicans cut into the Democrats' lead by three seats, 18 districts were considered competitive or mildly competitive.

Partisan balance of the Colorado House of Representatives

Election year  | Seats  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 65 | 1 | 1.53% |  |
2014 | 65 | 9 | 13.84% |  |
2016 | 65 | 3 | 4.61% |  |

## Battleground context[edit]

The Colorado State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target, while the Colorado House of Representatives had been identified by RLCC as an offensive target.[7] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.

Watch Ballotpedia's webinar on state battlegrounds and the 2016 elections

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 26, House District 3, and House District 31 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch."[9][10][11]

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named House District 3, House District 30, and Senate District 19 in their "2016 Essential Races."[12][13]

Daily Kos Elections identified the Colorado Senate as "perhaps the most competitive state legislative chamber in the nation this year." It noted that District 19, located in suburban Denver and held by Republican Laura J. Woods, sided with defeated Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Udall by half a percentage point and Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper by five points. Also, District 25, which was held by Democrat Mary Hodge, voted for Udall's opponent Cory Gardner and Hickenlooper's opponent Bob Beauprez in 2014, but sided with Obama by seven points in 2012.[14]

Major issues in Colorado, including education funding, marijuana legislation, and fracking, each played a role in the 2016 election. For instance, since 2010, Colorado's state budget had made use of the "negative factor," which is a strategic maneuver that allows the state to pay less than agreed upon in education funding under the promise that it will be paid back. Democrats proposed budgets designed to quickly pay down the negative factor. Coupled with general education spending increases for 2016, Colorado lawmakers could have potentially prescribed a record-breaking high for the state's education budget. [15]

In June 2016, the Marijuana Policy Project, an organization dedicated to promoting the legalization and regulation of marijuana, released a statement praising Colorado's government for passing several bills it supported and defeating a bill that went against its mission.[16]

Fracking, already a controversial issue in many states, saw drama in Colorado especially. A pair of fracking bans made at the local level were overturned by the state's Supreme Court in the first half of 2016, which argued that the state's power to regulate fracking supersedes that of local governments.[17]

### Competitiveness[edit]

In the previous two presidential elections, President Obama won Colorado. He won the state in 2008 by 9 points and in 2012 by 4 points.

Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria

Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [18]
Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [19]

* By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.

By using Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria with the 2012 presidential election results by state Senate districts, we can see that 14 out of 35 districts were competitive. Four of those districts were highly competitive and were all held by Republicans. Nine districts were considered mildly competitive.[20] By comparing the 2012 presidential election results with state House districts, we can see that 8 out of 65 districts were competitive. Four of those districts were highly competitive and were all held by Republicans. Four districts were considered mildly competitive.[20]

### Races we watched[edit]

### State Senate District 19[edit]

District 19 featured a candidate rematch in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Sen. Laura Woods (R) ran for re-election. She faced former state Sen. Rachel Zenzinger (D) in November.

In 2014, Woods narrowly defeated Zenzinger, the former incumbent, by a margin of 48 percent to 47 percent.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

### State Senate District 25[edit]

District 25 featured an open seat in a swing district.

Incumbent state Sen. Mary Hodge (D) did not run for re-election due to term limits. Former state Rep. Kevin Priola (R) defeated former state Rep. Jenise May (D) in November.

According to the Colorado Independent, Republicans focused on picking up the District 25 seat due to the uncertainty involving the re-election of state Sen. Laura Woods (R), a conservative Republican in District 19.[21]

### State Senate District 26[edit]

District 26 featured an open seat in a swing district.

Incumbent state Sen. Linda Newell (D) did not run for re-election due to term limits. State Rep. Daniel Kagan (D) defeated Nancy Doty (R) in November.

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

### State House District 3[edit]

A Democrat and a Republican ran for this open seat.

Incumbent state Rep. Daniel Kagan (D) did not run for re-election. Jeff Bridges (D) defeated Katy Brown (R) in November.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »
This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

### State House District 30[edit]

The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a swing district.

Incumbent state Rep. JoAnn Windholz (R) ran for re-election. She was defeated by Dafna Michaelson Jenet (D) in November.

In 2014, Windholz narrowly defeated Jenise May (D), the former incumbent, by a margin of 50.3 percent to 49.7 percent.

According to the Colorado Independent, the district was one of two races that could determine which party controlled the state House after the general election (District 31 was the other notable race).[21]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

### State House District 31[edit]

The Democratic incumbent ran for re-election in a swing district.

Incumbent state Rep. Joe Salazar (D) ran for re-election. He defeated Jessica Sandgren (R) in November.

In 2014, Salazar narrowly defeated his Republican opponent by a margin of 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent.

According to the Colorado Independent, the district was one of two races that could determine which party controlled the state House after the general election (District 30 was the other notable race).[21]

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

# Iowa[edit]

Iowa Legislature

State Senate

Seats up: 25 out of 50
Margin of control: 2
% Margin of control: 4.0%
Pre-election control:
State House
Seats up: 100 out of 100
Margin of control: 14
% Margin of control: 14.0%
Pre-election control:
Presidential election
2012: President Obama
2008: President Obama

Republicans flipped the state Senate, gaining a state government trifecta.

Main articles: Iowa State Senate elections, 2016 and Iowa House of Representatives elections, 2016

Before the Democratic Party took control of the Iowa State Senate in the 2006 election, the last time that the party held the majority was in 1996. The Republican Party had held the state House since 2010. From 1992 to 2013, the Democratic Party was the majority in the Iowa House of Representatives for five years while the Republicans were the majority for 17 years.[22]

Heading into the general election, Iowa was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas.

### Senate[edit]

The Iowa Senate had a difference in partisan balance between Democrats and Republicans of two seats, which amounted to 4 percent of the chamber. In 2014, when the chamber's 25 odd-numbered seats were up for election; four districts were considered competitive or mildly competitive. Ultimately, no change in partisan balance occurred. In 2012, the last election cycle in which the 25 even-numbered seats were up for election, 12 districts were considered competitive or mildly competitive. Likewise, no change in partisan balance resulted from these elections.

Partisan balance of the Iowa state Senate

Election year  | Seats  | Seats up  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | # of Competitive districts  | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 50 | 26 | 2 | 4.0% | - |  |
2014 | 50 | 25 | 2 | 4.0% | 4 |  |
2016 | 50 | 25 | 2 | 4.0% | 4 |  |

### House[edit]

The Iowa House, which elects all of its 100 members every two years, told a different story. Republicans won the House in the 2010 elections, lost six seats in 2012, and then won four back in 2014. Prior to the 2016 election there was a difference in partisan balance of four seats, or four percent of the chamber. Seventeen seats up for election in 2014 were considered competitive or mildly competitive.

Partisan balance of the Iowa House of Representatives

Election year  | Seats  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | # of Competitive districts  | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 100 | 20 | 20% | - |  |
2014 | 100 | 6 | 6.0% | 17 |  |
2016 | 100 | 14 | 14.0% | 4 |  |

## Battleground context[edit]

The Iowa State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as an offensive target for 2016.[7] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle. Republicans being able to take control of the Senate while maintaining control of the House secured a trifecta in the state of Iowa. There were six Democratic districts targeted by Republican challengers.

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 30 and Senate District 34 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch.”[9][11]

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named House District 55, Senate District 28, and Senate District 46 in their "2016 Essential Races."[12][13]

### Competitiveness[edit]

In the past two presidential elections, President Obama won Iowa. He won the state in 2008 by 9 points and in 2012 by 6 points.

Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria

Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [18]
Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [19]

By using Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria with the 2012 presidential election results by state Senate districts, we can see that 25 out of 50 districts were competitive. Six of those districts were highly competitive and all were held by Republicans except one. Nineteen districts were considered mildly competitive.[20]

By comparing the 2012 presidential election results with state House districts, we can see that 39 out of 100 districts were competitive. Twenty-two of those districts were highly competitive and the majority of the seats in those districts were held by Republicans. Seventeen districts were considered mildly competitive.[20]

### Races we watched[edit]

### State Senate District 26[edit]

The Democratic assistant senate majority leader faced a Republican challenger in a closely divided district.

State Senate Assistant Majority Leader Mary Jo Wilhelm (D) ran for re-election. Waylon Brown (R) defeated Wilhelm in November.

The District 26 seat was targeted by Republicans as a potential pick-up.[23]

Wilhelm won close races in 2008 and 2012. Wilhelm defeated incumbent state Sen. Mark Zieman (R) in 2008 by just 1,026 votes out of 27,698 votes cast. Due to redistricting, in 2012 Wilhelm faced incumbent state Sen. Merlin Bartz, whom she defeated by just 126 votes out of 30,934 votes cast.

According to The Des Moines Register, active voter registrations in District 26 slightly favored Republicans. Active voter registrations in the district included 11,116 Democrats, 11,556 Republicans, and 16,407 with no party identification.[23]

### State Senate District 28[edit]

The Republican incumbent faced a Democratic and a Libertarian in a closely divided district.

Incumbent Michael Breitbach (R) defeated Jan Heikes (D) and Troy Hageman (L) in the general election. Breitbach was elected to the seat in 2012 by a margin of victory of 0.2 percent.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

### State Senate District 30[edit]

The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican challenger in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Sen. Jeff Danielson (D) ran for re-election. Danielson defeated Bonnie Sadler (R) in November.

The District 30 seat was targeted by Republicans as a potential pick-up.[23]

Danielson won close races in 2008 and 2012. Danielson defeated challenger Walt Rogers (R) by just 22 votes out of 32,184 votes cast in 2008—the narrowest margin that year. Danielson defeated challenger Matt Resisetter (R) by just 681 votes out of 33,211 votes cast in 2012.

According to The Des Moines Register, active voter registrations in District 30 slightly favored Republicans. Active voter registrations in the district included 12,247 Democrats, 12,652 Republicans, and 14,231 with no party identification.[23]

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

### State Senate District 32[edit]

The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican challenger in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Sen. Brian Schoenjahn (D) ran for re-election. Craig Johnson (R) defeated Schoenjahn in November.

The District 32 seat was targeted by Republicans as a potential pick-up.[23]

Schoenjahn won in 2012 with 50.6 percent of the vote, compared to 53 percent in 2004 and 63 percent in 2008.[24]

According to The Des Moines Register, active voter registrations in District 32 slightly favored Republicans. Active voter registrations in the district included 10,172 Democrats, 11,301 Republicans, and 16,889 with no party identification.[23]

### State Senate District 34[edit]

The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican challenger in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Sen. Liz Mathis (D) ran for re-election. Mathis defeated Rene Gadelha (R) in November.

The District 34 seat was targeted by Republicans as a potential pick-up.[23]

Mathis won a special election in 2011 and won with almost 60 percent of the vote in 2012. Despite Mathis' previous wins, Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said the district is a target for Republicans.

According to The Des Moines Register, active voter registrations in District 34 slightly favored Republicans. Active voter registrations in the district included 12,681 Democrats, 13,456 Republicans, and 14,920 with no party identification.[23]

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

### State Senate District 36[edit]

The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican challenger in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Sen. Steve Sodders (D) ran for re-election. Jeff Edler (R) defeated Sodders in November.

The District 36 seat was targeted by Republicans as a potential pick-up.[23]

Sodders won in 2008 and in 2012 with roughly 53 percent of the vote both years.

According to The Des Moines Register, active voter registrations in District 36 slightly favored Republicans. Active voter registrations in the district included 12,681 Democrats, 13,456 Republicans, and 14,920 with no party identification.[23]

### State Senate District 46[edit]

The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican challenger in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Sen. Chris Brase (D) ran for re-election. Mark Lofgren (R) defeated Brase in November.

The District 46 seat was targeted by Republicans as a potential pick-up.[23]

Brase won in 2012 with 51.2 percent of the vote.[25]

According to The Des Moines Register, active voter registrations in District 46 slightly favored Republicans. Active voter registrations in the district included 11,528 Democrats, 12,072 Republicans, and 15,083 with no party identification.[23]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

### State House District 15[edit]

The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican challenger.

Incumbent state Rep. Charlie McConkey (D) ran for re-election. McConkey defeated Bill Riley (R) in November.

McConkey won by just 75 votes out of 6,603 votes cast in 2014.

### State House District 30[edit]

District 30 featured a candidate rematch.

Incumbent state Rep. Zach Nunn (R) ran for re-election. Nunn defeated former incumbent Rep. Joe Riding (D) in November.

Nunn defeated Riding by a margin of 56 percent to 43 percent in 2014.

### State House District 51[edit]

District 51 featured an open seat in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Rep. Josh Byrnes (R) declined to run for re-election. Jane Bloomingdale (R) defeated Tim Hejhal (D) in November.

The district was closely divided. Barack Obama (D) won the district in 2012, while active registered Republicans outnumbered active registered Democrats. Active voter registrations in the district included 5,136 Democrats, 6,237 Republicans, and 7,855 with no party identification.[23]

### State House District 55 (general)[edit]

District 55 featured an open seat in a closely divided district.

Along with the District 55 general election race, the District 55 primary race was a race to watch.

Incumbent state Rep. Darrel Branhagen (R) declined to run for re-election. Pat Ritter (D) defeated Steve McCargar (D) in the Democratic primary contest. Michael Bergan (R) defeated Alex Popenhagen (R) in the Republican primary contest. Bergan defeated Ritter in the general election.

Democrats sought to flip District 55, which was a closely divided district. Before Branhagen took office in 2014, the seat was held by Rep. Roger Thomas (D), who served eight terms. The district also supported Barack Obama (D) in 2012.[23]

According to The Des Moines Register, active voter registrations in District 55 slightly favored Republicans. Active voter registrations in the district included 5,539 Democrats, 6,568 Republicans, and 6,499 with no party identification.[23]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

### State House District 58[edit]

District 58 featured an open seat in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Rep. Brian Moore (R) declined to run for re-election. Andy McKean defeated Joshua Sundstrom and Allen Ernst in the Republican primary. Peter Hird (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Hird dropped out of the race following the Democratic primary and was replaced by Jessica Kean. McKean defeated Kean in the general election.

According to The Des Moines Register, District 58 "may be the best opportunity for Democrats to snag a House seat held by a Republican." Active voter registrations in District 58 also favored Democrats. Active voter registrations in the district included 7,009 Democrats, 5,037 Republicans, and 8,596 with no party identification.[23]

### State House District 67[edit]

The Democratic candidate who ran a close race in 2012 sought the seat in 2016.

Incumbent state Rep. Kraig Paulsen (R) declined to run for re-election. Mark Seidl (D), who challenged Paulsen in 2014, was defeated by Ashley Hinson (R) in November.

Paulsen defeated Seidl in 2012 by a margin of 52 percent to 47 percent out of 15,845 votes cast. Paulsen was unchallenged in 2014.

### State House District 95[edit]

District 95 featured an open seat in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Rep. Quentin Stanerson (R) declined to run for re-election. Louis Zumbach (R) defeated Richard Whitehead (D) in November.

The district was closely divided. Stanerson defeated Kristin Keast (D) in 2012 by just 200 votes but won re-election in 2014 against Keast with 55 percent of the vote. The district supported Barack Obama (D) in 2012.[23]

Registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by only 167 votes. Active voter registrations in the district included 6,273 Democrats, 6,440 Republicans, and 7,697 with no party identification.[23]

# Kentucky[edit]

Kentucky House

2016 Election

Seats up: 100 out of 100
Margin of control: 6
% Margin of control: 6.0%
Pre-election control:
Presidential election
2012: Mitt Romney
2008: Sen. John McCain

Republicans flipped the state House, securing a state government trifecta in Kentucky.

Main article: 2016 House elections

The Kentucky House of Representatives had been held by the Democratic Party since 1921. The lower house of the Kentucky State Legislature was the last state legislative chamber in the South to be controlled by Democrats.[26]

### House[edit]

Republican trifecta at stake

Heading into the general election, Kentucky was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas. That changed when Republicans took control of the House in the 2016 election, securing a GOP trifecta in Kentucky.

Democrats controlled the Kentucky House by 6 seats. The Kentucky House was one of 20 state legislative chambers noted by Ballotpedia staff as being a battleground in 2014, but the partisan balance did not change.[27] In 2016, however, Republicans flipped the chamber by picking up 17 seats.

Partisan balance of the Kentucky House of Representatives

Election year  | Seats  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | # of Competitive districts  | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 100 | 18 seats | 18% | 14 |  Democratic |  Democratic
2014 | 100 | 8 seats | 8% | 4 |  Democratic |  Democratic
2016 | 100 | 6 seats | 6% | 4 |  Democratic |  Republican

## Battleground context[edit]

The Kentucky House of Representatives was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as an offensive target for 2016.[7] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named House District 3, House District 20, and House District 99 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch.”[9][11]

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named House District 8, House District 38, and House District 46 in their "2016 Essential Races."[12][13]

In an effort to regain control of the chamber, Republicans fielded candidates in 91 of the 100 House districts. Rep. Jonathan Shell (R), the House GOP campaign chairman, said that "House Republicans accomplished our recruitment goals for 2016. We have candidates in every corner of the state, in nearly every district. We have inspiring candidates who will bring a new majority to the people’s House and who will govern this state the way Kentuckians deserve."[28]

Scott Jennings, a political operative who advised Republican candidates, said on Kentucky Democrats that, "The state of the Democratic Party is a crisis. It’s an emergency." The Democratic Party had been losing ground in Kentucky since the 2015 general election. In 2015, Republican Matt Bevin defeated Democrat Jack Conway by nine percentage points for the governorship. Bevin was only the second Republican governor of Kentucky in four decades. Republicans also took control of the state auditor and treasurer office, and Rep. Denny Butler and Rep. Jim Gooch, Jr. switched their party affiliation from Democratic to Republican.[29] In a 2015 special election, Republicans also flipped District 27 in the Kentucky Senate. Steve West (R) won the seat by almost 9 percentage points and Romney won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 24 percentage points.

As of June 30, 2016, the Kentucky Democratic Party had only $72,650 on hand, while the Kentucky GOP had $1.6 million on hand. Democrats spent heavily in the March 8, 2016, special elections to increase their House majority.[30]

### 2016 special elections[edit]

Before the general election in November, Republicans targeted four state House special elections on March 8, 2016, which were previously held by two Democrats and two Republicans.

In three of the four special elections, Republicans had "a collective 3-to-1 cash advantage on their Democratic opponents."[31] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) planned "a six-figure, multi-platform ad campaign" that tied the four Democratic candidates to President Barack Obama.[32] RSLC President Matt Walter said on the House special elections that, "Democrats don’t seem to have a clue. They lost important races last November after running out-of-touch candidates determined to implement Obama’s policies in Kentucky. They’ve since lost two state House representatives who switched to the Republican Party because of the Democrats’ commitment to the president’s failed agenda. And now they are trying the same play again by running four House candidates in the upcoming special elections who will be strong allies to the president and his extreme positions."[32]

Results: Republicans retained one seat in the special elections but lost District 62. Democrats increased their lead to a 53-47 majority in the House.

### Competitiveness[edit]

* In the past two presidential elections, the Republican candidate won Kentucky. U.S. Senator John McCain won the state in 2008 by 3 percentage points, while former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney won the state by 23 percentage points in 2012.

Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria

Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [18]
Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [19]

* By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.

* House districts: 9 out of 100 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.

* Five of those districts were highly competitive and all were held by Democrats. Four districts were considered mildly competitive.[20]

### Races we watched[edit]

### State House District 3[edit]

The Democratic incumbent defended his seat against a Republican candidate.

Incumbent Gerald Watkins (D) faced Joni Hogancamp (R) in the general election. Both candidates were unopposed in their respective primaries. In 2014, Watkins won re-election to the seat by a margin of victory of 7.2 percent.

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

### State House District 8[edit]

The Democratic incumbent who won in a 2016 special election again faced his 2016 GOP opponent.

Incumbent Jeff Taylor (D) faced Walker Thomas (R) in the general election. Both candidates were unopposed in their respective primaries. Taylor was elected to the seat in a special election on March 8, 2016. He defeated Walker Thomas in the special election by 19 percent.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

### State House District 20[edit]

The Democratic incumbent defended her seat against a Republican candidate.

Incumbent Jody Richards (D) faced Melinda Hill (R) in the general election. Both candidates were unopposed in their respective primaries.

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

### State House District 23 (general)[edit]

Republicans seek to re-capture an open seat left by the Democratic incumbent.

Along with the District 23 primary contest, the district's general election is a race to watch. Danny J. Basil (D) faced Steve Riley (R) in November.

According to CN|2, a Kentucky television station that covers state politics, "The district has become a target for the GOP to flip in recent election cycles." Bell, the outgoing incumbent, defeated his Republican challenger by nine percentage points in 2014. A total of 13,814 votes were cast.[33]

### State House District 38[edit]

An incumbent who switched party affiliation from Democratic to GOP is running for re-election.

Incumbent state Rep. Denver "Denny" Butler (R) ran for re-election and was unopposed in the Republican primary contest.

Butler changed his party affiliation from Democratic to Republican in November 2015. The race is closely watched due to the already slim Democratic majority in the state House after Butler's affiliation switch. Butler faced McKenzie Cantrell (D) in November.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

### State House District 46[edit]

Democrats defended the seat held by the outgoing Democratic incumbent.

Incumbent Lawrence Clark (D) did not seek re-election. Alan Gentry defeated Allen Schuler in the Democratic primary. Eric Crump defeated Bill Dudley in the Republican primary. Gentry defeated Crump in the general election.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

### State House District 50[edit]

Republicans defend the seat held by the outgoing Republican incumbent.

Incumbent state Rep. David Floyd (R) declined to run for re-election. James DeWeese (D) faced Chad McCoy (R) in November.

Republicans sought to overtake the narrow Democratic majority in the state House and defend their current seats. Floyd, the outgoing incumbent, won the district in 2014 and 2012 by about seven percentage points in both years.

### State House District 70[edit]

Two Republicans and one Democrat seek the open seat left by the Democratic incumbent.

Incumbent state Rep. Mitchel Denham Jr. (D) declined to run for re-election. John Sims Jr. (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary contest and faced John VanMeter (R) in November.

The outgoing Democratic incumbent won in 2014, 2012, 2010, and 2008 as an unopposed candidate. The party competition during the general election may have an effect on the race's outcome, as Republicans seek to retake the state House from the narrow Democratic majority.

### State House District 78[edit]

The general election features a rematch between the incumbent and his 2014 Republican challenger.

Incumbent state Rep. Thomas McKee (D) ran for re-election and was unopposed in the Democratic primary. He faced Mark Hart (R), his Republican challenger in 2014, in the November 2016 election.

McKee defeated Hart by a margin of 54 to 46 percent in 2014. A total of 12,069 votes were cast.

### State House District 91[edit]

A Democratic incumbent who won in 2014 by just 14 votes again faces his 2014 GOP opponent.

Incumbent state Rep. Cluster Howard (D) ran for re-election and was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Howard faces Toby Herald (R), the former Republican incumbent and 2014 opponent, in the general election.

The race was a rematch between Howard, the current incumbent, and Herald, the former incumbent. Howard defeated Herald in 2014 by just 14 votes. The general election race in 2016 (a presidential year) was predicted to be as close as it was in 2014 (a midterm election year).

### State House District 94[edit]

An open seat left by the Democratic incumbent features party competition for the first time since 2010.

Outgoing state Rep. Leslie Combs (D), who was unopposed in 2014 and 2012, declined to run for re-election, leaving an open seat. Frank Justice II (R) faces Angie Hatton (D) in November.

Along with the District 94 primary contest, the district's general election was a race to watch as Republicans seek to retake the seat from the Democrats.

### State House District 99[edit]

The Democratic incumbent defended his seat against a Republican candidate.

Incumbent Rocky Adkins (D) faced Wendy Fletcher (R) in the general election. Adkins was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Fletcher defeated Randy Smith in the Republican primary.

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

# Maine[edit]

Maine Legislature

State Senate

Seats up: 35 out of 35
Margin of control: 5
% Margin of control: 14%
Pre-election control:
State House
Seats up: 151 out of 151
Margin of control: 9
% Margin of control: 6%
Pre-election control:
Presidential election
2012: President Obama
2008: President Obama

Little change occurred to control of the state Senate and state House.

Main articles: 2016 Senate elections and 2016 House elections

Before Republicans took control of the Maine State Senate in the 2014 election, they had only controlled the chamber for four of the preceding 32 years prior to the election.[34] From 1992 to 2013, the Democratic Party was the majority in the Maine House of Representatives for 20 years, while Republicans were the majority for two years. Republicans last held the state House in 2012.[35]

Heading into the general election, Maine was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas.

### Senate[edit]

Republicans controlled the Maine State Senate by five seats. In 2014, Republicans increased their seats from 15 to 20, and gained control of the chamber. Democrats previously held the majority control of the chamber with 19 seats. However, following the general election, that number dropped to just 15 seats.

Partisan balance of the Maine state Senate

Election year  | Seats  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | # of Competitive districts  | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 35 | 4 seats | 11% | - |  Republican |  Democratic
2014 | 35 | 4 seats | 11% | 7 |  Democratic |  Republican
2016 | 35 | 5 seats | 14% | 6 |  Republican |  Republican

### House[edit]

Democrats controlled the Maine state House by nine seats. In 2014, Democrats continued their control of the chamber, but sustained a loss of nine seats. Their total seats dropped from 88 to 79. Republicans picked up 11 seats, jumping from 57 to 68 seats overall.

Partisan balance of the Maine House of Representatives

Election year  | Seats  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | # of Competitive districts  | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 151 | 6 seats | 4% | - |  Republican |  Democratic
2014 | 151 | 31 seats | 21% | - |  Democratic |  Democratic
2016 | 151 | 9 seats | 6% | 24 |  Democratic |  Democratic

## Battleground context[edit]

The Maine State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target for 2016.[7] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 6 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch.”[9]

Between January 1, 2015, and July 19, 2016, Maine Democrats raised twice as much as Republicans. Nearly 67 percent—or $680,080—of the $1,008,475 raised came from Democrats, according to filings with the Maine Ethics Commission. Senate Democrats raised $369,426 to the Republicans' $151,518, and House Democrats raised $310,654 to the GOP's $176,877. The top donor in each chamber was the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC). In September 2015, the DLCC gave Maine's Senate Democratic Campaign Committee and House Democratic Campaign Committee each $110,000.[36][37] Jim Melcher, a political scientist at the University of Maine-Farmington, said that the DLCC might have given money early because it believed that the Senate could be flipped and also to encourage candidates to run.[36]

Outside of the contribution from the DLCC, Jason Savage, executive director of the Maine Republican Party, believed that fundraising between the two state parties had remained even for this election cycle. Savage said, "I think that speaks to an increased competitiveness among the two. It used to be the Democrats were strong."[36] Savage maintains that while Democratic State and House committees have raised more money in recent elections, Republicans "tend to make more effective use" of their money.[36] Phil Bartlett, chairman of the Maine Democratic Party, said that the DLCC's contributions indicate their eagerness to help Democrats flip the state Senate and regain control of the state legislature. Bartlett said a Democratic legislature would "provide a check on a governor who has caused Maine to lag behind the national economic recovery and who has put Maine in the national spotlight for all the wrong reasons."[36]

#### 2014 campaign contributions[edit]

In the 2014 elections, Republican candidates outraised their Democratic opponents by more than $300,000.

* Democratic candidates raised 45 percent—or $1,402,399—and Republican candidates raised 55 percent—or $1,714,653—of the $3,117,052 raised by the 426 candidates.[38]
* Democrats: Forty state Senate candidates raised $740,970, while 159 state House candidates raised $661,429.[38]
* Republicans: Forty-six state Senate candidates raised $859,806, while 181 state House candidates raised $854,847.[38]

### Competitiveness[edit]

* In the previous two presidential elections, President Obama comfortably won Maine. He won the state in 2008 by 18 points and in 2012 by 15 points.

Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria

Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [18]
Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [19]

* By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.

* Senate districts: Nine out of 35 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.

* Four of those districts were highly competitive and were all held by Republicans. Five districts were considered mildly competitive.[20]

* House districts: 53 out of 151 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.

* Twenty-four of those districts were highly competitive and were all held by Republicans. Twenty-nine districts were considered mildly competitive.[20]

## Races we watched[edit]

State Senate District 2\- General election

A Republican state representative and a former Democratic incumbent competed for an open seat vacated by the GOP incumbent.

Along with the District 2 primary election, the State Senate District 2 general election was a race to watch. Michael Carpenter (D) defeated State Rep. Ricky Long (R) in the general election for state Senate.

Long faced Carpenter in November. Carpenter is a former state attorney general and former member of both the Maine House and the Maine Senate. He narrowly lost to Willette, the outgoing incumbent, by a margin of 49 percent to 47 percent in 2014.

Incumbent state Sen. Michael Willette (R) declined to run for re-election. State Rep. Ricky Long (R) defeated Emily Smith (R) in the Republican primary contest. Michael Carpenter (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Smith is chair of the Presque Isle City Council; Presque Isle, the largest town in the district, makes up roughly 25 percent of District 2. Long, a current state representative for House District 145, was elected to the House in 2010.[39]

State Senate District 6\- General election

A Republican state representative and a Democratic candidate competed for an open seat vacated by the GOP incumbent.

Joyce Maker (R) defeated Rock Alley (D) in the general election.

Incumbent David C. Burns (R) declined to run for re-election. Rock Alley was unopposed in the Democratic primary. State Rep. Joyce Maker defeated William Howard in the Republican primary. This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

State Senate District 7\- General election

The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Sen. Brian Langley (R) defeated challenger Moira O'Neill (D) in the general election. Langley was was unopposed in the Republican primary. Former state Rep. Theodore Koffman (D) was defeated by Moira O'Neill (D) in the Democratic primary contest. Langley faced O'Neill in November.

Langley defeated Koffman in 2014 by a margin of 53 percent to 43 percent. Langley won his seat more narrowly in 2012 by a margin of 51 percent to 49 percent.

According to an analysis of the Maine State Senate elections published in the Daily Kos, District 7 "is one of the most Democratic state senate districts in Maine held by a Republican." The district voted 58 percent for Barack Obama (D) in 2012. The analysis rated the race a toss-up given the closeness of the 2012 contest and an increase in Koffman's name recognition within the district.[39]

State Senate District 11\- General election

The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Sen. Michael Thibodeau (R), the state senate majority leader, defeated Jonathan Fulford (D) in November.

The race was a rematch between Thibodeau and Fulford. Thibodeau narrowly won re-election in 2014 against Fulford by a margin of 48.8 percent to 48.1 percent—135 votes out of 18,667 votes cast. The 2014 election was also considered a worse political climate for Democrats than Republicans.

In an analysis of the Maine State Senate elections published in the Daily Kos, the District 11 race was considered a toss-up. The district voted 54 percent for Barack Obama (D) in 2012.[39]

State Senate District 13\- General election

The Democratic incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Sen. Chris Johnson (D) was defeated by former state Rep. Dana Dow (R).

Johnson won his seat in a February 2012 against Dow by a margin of 54 percent to 46 percent, a win that was considered a significant upset. Johnson narrowly won re-election in November 2012 against Leslie Fossel (R) by a margin of 50.4 percent to 49.6 percent. Johnson defeated Fossel by a margin of 49 percent to 47 percent in a similarly close election in November 2014.

In an analysis of the Maine State Senate elections published in the Daily Kos, the District 13 race slightly favored Democrats but was close to a toss-up.[39]

State Senate District 16\- General election

The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Sen. Scott Cyrway (R) won re-election in the November 2016 general election. He faced state Rep. Henry Murphy Beck (D).

Cyrway defeated former incumbent Rep. Colleen Lachowicz (D) in 2014 by a margin of 53 percent to 43 percent.

In an analysis of the Maine State Senate elections published in the Daily Kos, the District 16 race was considered a toss-up.[39]

State Senate District 23\- General election

The Republican candidate that defeated the incumbent faced a former state representative in a closely divided district.

The Republican incumbent faced a conservative challenger.

Along with the District 23 primary election, the State Senate District 23 general election was a race to watch.

Eloise Vitelli (D) defeated Guy Lebida (R) in the November 2016 general election.

Incumbent state Sen. Linda Baker (R) ran for re-election. She lost to Guy Lebida (R) in the Republican primary contest. Former state Rep. Eloise Vitelli (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Baker defeated Vitelli in 2014 by a margin of 45 percent to 40 percent; Green Party candidate Alice Knapp garnered 11 percent of the vote. No third party candidate was on the ballot in 2016, potentially benefiting Vitelli in November.

Lebida, the vice chairman of the Sagadahoc County Republican Committee, distinguished himself as the more conservative candidate, citing his opposition to Baker's vote in favor of providing state assistance to asylum seekers and Lebida's support for the entire state party's platform, which includes local control of public education, fiscal conservatism, and right-to-work laws, among other issues.[40]

In an analysis of the Maine State Senate elections published in the Daily Kos, the District 23 general election race was considered a toss-up. The district voted 57 percent for Barack Obama (D) in 2012.[39]

State Senate District 33\- General election

The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Sen. David Woodsome (R) ran for re-election. He defeated former state Rep. Andrea Boland (D) in the November 2016 general election.

Boland came close to ousting former incumbent Rep. John Tuttle (D) in the 2014 Democratic primary contest. Tuttle defeated Boland by just 22 votes out of 1,666 votes cast. Woodsome went on to defeat Tuttle in the 2014 general election by a margin of 57 percent to 39 percent.

In an analysis of the Maine State Senate elections published in the Daily Kos, the District 33 general election race was considered a toss-up. The district voted 55 percent for Barack Obama (D) in 2012.[39]

State House District 3\- General election

The Democratic incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Rep. Lydia Blume (D) defeated Peter Mantell (R) in the November 2016 general election.

In 2014, Blume defeated Arthur Kyricos (R) by a margin of 49 percent to 47 percent.

State House District 4\- General election

District 4 featured a candidate rematch.

Incumbent state Rep. Patricia Hymanson (D) defeated Bradley Moulton (R) in the November 2016 general election.

In 2014, Hymanson defeated Moulton by a margin of 49 percent to 46 percent.

State House District 5\- General election

District 5 featured a candidate rematch.

Incumbent state Rep. Beth O'Connor (R) defeated former state Rep. Joshua Plante (D) in the November 2016 general election.

In 2014, O'Connor defeated Plante, the former incumbent, by a margin of 53 percent to 45 percent.

State House District 7\- General election

District 7 featured a candidate rematch.

Incumbent state Rep. Robert Foley (R) defeated Joachim Howard (D) in the November 2016 general election.

In 2014, Foley defeated Howard by a margin of 59 percent to 37 percent.

State House District 9\- General election

The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Rep. Stedman Seavey (R) defeated Diane Denk (D) in the November 2016 general election. Denk defeated Laurie Dobson (D) in the Democratic primary.

In 2014, Seavey defeated Denk by a margin of 50 percent to 47 percent.

State House District 19\- General election

The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Rep. Matthew Harrington (R) defeated Nalbert Tero (D) in the November 2016 general election.

Harrington won the seat in a special election held on November 3, 2015, where he won with 47 percent of the vote compared to 46 percent for his Democratic opponent.

State House District 33\- General election

The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Rep. Kevin Battle (R) defeated Brad Fox (D) in the November 2016 general election.

In 2014, Battle defeated Rosemarie De Angelis (D) by a margin of 44 percent to 42 percent; Green Party candidate Andrew Reddy received 10 percent of the vote.

State House District 44\- General election

The Democratic incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Rep. Teresa Pierce (D) defeated Erin Mancini (R) in the November 2016 general election.

In 2014, Pierce defeated Gregory Payeur (R) by a margin of 49 percent to 46 percent.

State House District 45\- General election

District 45 featured a candidate rematch.

Incumbent state Rep. Michael Timmons (R) lost his bid for re-election to Dale Denno (D) in the November 2016 general election.

The 2016 general election was a rematch between Timmons and Denno. In 2014, Timmons defeated Denno by a margin of 47.6 percent to 47.3 percent.

State House District 64\- General election

The Republican incumbent retired, leaving an open seat in a closely divided district.

Bettyann Sheats (D) defeated Michael Travers (R) in the November 2016 general election for State House District 64.[41]

Incumbent state Rep. David Sawicki (R) withdrew his bid for re-election after the Republican primary.[42]

State House District 68\- General election

The Democratic incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Rep. Christine Powers (D) was defeated by Richard Cebra (R) in the November 2016 general election.

In 2014, Powers defeated John Nostin (R) by a margin of 48 percent to 47 percent.

State House District 70\- General election

District 70 featured a candidate rematch.

Incumbent state Rep. Nathan Wadsworth (R) defeated former state Rep. Helen Rankin (D) in the November 2016 general election.

In 2014, Wadsworth defeated Rankin, the former incumbent, by a margin of 51 percent to 46 percent.

State House District 106\- General election

District 106 featured a candidate rematch.

Incumbent state Rep. Stanley Short (D) was defeated by Scott Strom (R) in the November 2016 general election.

In 2014, Short defeated Strom by a margin of 50 percent to 46 percent.

State House District 111\- General election

District 111 featured a candidate rematch.

Incumbent state Rep. Bradlee Farrin (R) defeated former state Rep. Ann Dorney (D) in the November 2016 general election.

In 2014, Farrin defeated Dorney, the former incumbent, by a margin of 52 percent to 45 percent.

State House District 114\- General election

District 114 featured a candidate rematch.

Incumbent state Rep. Russell Black (R) defeated Guy Iverson (D) in the November 2016 general election.

In 2014, Black defeated Iverson by a margin of 67 percent to 31 percent.

State House District 125\- General election

District 125 featured a candidate rematch.

Incumbent state Rep. Victoria Kornfield (D) defeated Gary Capehart (R) in the November 2016 general election.

In 2014, Kornfield defeated Capehart by a margin of 53 percent to 43 percent.

State House District 126\- General election

District 126 featured a candidate rematch.

Incumbent state Rep. John Schneck (D) defeated former state Rep. Douglas Damon (R) in the November general election.

This is the third contest between Schneck and Damon, the former incumbent. In 2012, Schneck unseated Damon by a margin of 59 percent to 41 percent. In 2014, Schneck defeated Damon by a margin of 53 percent to 41 percent.

# Michigan[edit]

Michigan House

2016 Election

Seats up: 110 out of 110
Margin of control: 16
% Margin of control: 14.6%
Pre-election control:
Presidential election
2012: President Obama
2008: President Obama

Little change occurred to control of the Michigan State House.

Main article: Michigan House of Representatives elections, 2016

The Michigan House of Representatives had been held by the Republican Party since 2011. From 1992 to 2013, the Republican Party was the majority in the Michigan state House of Representatives for 13 years while Democrats were the majority for seven years.[43]

Heading into the general election, Michigan was one of 23 Republican state government trifectas. The Republican Party held both chambers of the state legislature and the governorship in Michigan, with Republican nominees also dominating the Michigan Supreme Court, despite the elections being officially nonpartisan. This combination made the state government one of nine categorized as a trifecta plus.[44]

The Michigan House had a difference in partisan balance between Democrats and Republicans of 16 seats, which amounted to 14.55 percent of the chamber.[27] Eleven Democrats and 27 Republicans were barred from running for re-election by term limits in 2016. In 2014, 20 Democrats and 19 Republicans were term-limited. In 2014, six districts were considered competitive or mildly competitive. That year, Republicans added four seats to their advantage.

Partisan balance of the Michigan House of Representatives

Election year  | Seats  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | # of Competitive districts  | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 110 | 16 | 14.5% | - |  |
2014 | 110 | 9 | 8.2% | 8 |  |
2016 | 110 | 16 | 14.6% | 3 |  |

## Battleground context[edit]

The Michigan House of Representatives was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target for 2016.[7] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named House District 83 and House District 106 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch.”[9][11]

Ahead of the 2020 census, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) targeted the state for redistricting purposes. The DLCC set the goal of raising $20 million for 2016 state legislative races. Following the 2010 elections, when Republicans formed a state government trifecta by gaining control of the governor's office and the state House, the state's congressional boundaries were redrawn by the legislature; while Republicans did not gain seats in 2012, Democrats lost one seat due to a decrease in the state's congressional delegation. Republicans continued to maintain their 9-5 lead after the 2014 elections.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named House District 71, House District 91, and House District 99 in their "2016 Essential Races."[12][13]

### Competitiveness[edit]

Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria

Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [18]
Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [19]

In presidential election years, Democrats tend to come out and vote more than in regular election years. Democrats hoped this trend would continue and help them to regain control of the chamber. In the past two presidential elections, President Obama won Michigan. He won the state in 2008 by 16 points and in 2012 by 9 points. Democrats cut into Republican House control by four seats in 2012. Thirty-five House districts saw a margin of victory of 10 percent or under in the 2012 presidential race; 28 of them were held by Republicans.[20]

### Races we watched[edit]

House District 71 \- General election

A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent in a swing district.

Former Rep. Theresa Abed (D) was defeated by Rep. Tom Barrett (R) in a rematch for House District 71.[45] Abed, who challenged Rep. Deb Shaughnessy (R) for the seat in both 2010 and 2012, prevailed on her second attempt.[46][47][48] However, she lost to Barrett in the next election.[49] Abed and Barrett both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[45] Libertarian candidate Marc Lord also ran in the election.[50]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

House District 83 \- General election

Three candidates faced off for this open Republican seat.

Incumbent Paul Muxlow (R) did not seek re-election because of term-limits. Jim Frank was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Shane Hernandez defeated Justin Faber and Matt Muxlow in the Republican primary. Hernandez defeated Frank and Deena Marie Bruderick (Green) in the general election.

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

House District 91 \- General election

A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent in a swing district.

Rep. Holly Hughes (R) and former Rep. Collene Lamonte (D) have traded the seat in House District 91 each election since 2012.[51][47] Hughes, who held the seat leading up to the 2012 election, lost it to Lamonte by 333 votes that year.[47] She reclaimed it in 2014 by a 53-vote margin.[49] Lamonte was defeated by Hughes in another rematch for the district in 2016.[45] Hughes and Lamonte both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[45] Libertarian candidate Max Riekse also ran in the election.[50]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

House District 99 \- General election

Two candidates faced off for this open Republican seat.

Incumbent Kevin Cotter (R) did not seek re-election because of term-limits. In 2014, Cotter won re-election to the chamber by a margin of victory of three percent. Bryan Mielke was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Roger Hauck defeated Robin Stressman in the Republican primary. Hauck defeated Mielke in the general election.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

House District 106 \- General election

Three candidates faced off for this open Republican seat.

Incumbent Peter Pettalia (R) died on September 12, 2016, in a motorcycle accident. In 2014, Pettalia won re-election to the chamber by a margin of victory of 10 percent. Robert Kennedy defeated Erin Kieliszewski in the Democratic primary. Sue Allor defeated David Chandler, Jackie Krawczak, and Jesse Osmer in the Republican primary. Allor defeated Kennedy and Libertarian Dana Carver in the general election.

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

# Minnesota[edit]

Minnesota Legislature

Minnesota Senate

Seats up: 67 out of 67
Margin of control: 11
% Margin of control: 16%
Pre-election control:
Minnesota House
Seats up: 134 out of 134
Margin of control: 12
% Margin of control: 9%
Pre-election control:
Presidential election
2012: President Obama
2008: President Obama

Republicans flipped the state Senate, securing control of both legislative chambers.

Heading into the general election, Minnesota was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas. The state House was the primary focus of legislative elections in Minnesota, with Democrats looking to win the House and pick up a state government trifecta in the process. However, Republicans retained control of the House and flipped the state Senate by gaining five seats.

Over the previous 20 years, Democrats had controlled the Minnesota State Senate, except from 2011 to 2012, when Republicans held the majority. Republicans held the Minnesota House of Representatives since the 2014 election. Prior to that election, Republicans held the majority in the chamber for ten years from 1992-2013, while Democrats held the majority for 12 years during that same period of time.[52]

### Senate[edit]

Main article: 2016 Senate elections

Democrats controlled the Minnesota Senate by 11 seats. In 2012, the last year that the Senate held elections, Republicans lost nine seats and control of the chamber.

Partisan balance of the Minnesota state Senate

Election year  | Seats  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | # of Competitive districts  | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 67 | 7 seats | 10% | - |  Republican |  Democratic
2016 | 67 | 11 seats | 16% | 16 |  Democratic |  Republican

### House[edit]

Main article: 2016 House elections

Republicans controlled the Minnesota House by 12 seats. Democrats needed to pick up seven seats to win back control of the chamber.

The Minnesota House was one of 20 state legislative chambers noted by Ballotpedia staff as being a 2014 battleground chamber. Prior to the 2014 election, the Democrat-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) held 73 seats. But, after a loss of nine seats in the general election, that total dropped to 62 seats. Those nine seats gave Republicans control of the chamber, increasing their total seats from 61 to 72.[53]

Partisan balance of the Minnesota House of Representatives

Election year  | Seats  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | # of Competitive districts  | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 134 | 10 seats | 7% | - |  Republican |  Democratic
2014 | 134 | 12 seats | 9% | 17 |  Democratic |  Republican
2016 | 134 | 12 seats | 9% | 16 |  Republican |  Republican

## Battleground context[edit]

The Minnesota State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as an offensive target, while the Minnesota House of Representatives had been identified by RLCC as a defensive target.[7] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 53 and House District 42B in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch.”[9][11] The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named House District 28B, Senate District 1, and Senate District 58 in their "2016 Essential Races."[54]

In 2012, the last presidential election cycle, Republicans lost majorities in both chambers. Democrats argued that turnout in presidential elections tends to benefit their candidates, whereas Republicans claimed that 2016's presidential race would negatively affect candidates in rural legislative districts, which they saw as battlegrounds.[55][56] Larry Jacobs, professor of political science at the University of Minnesota, said that Democrats "will have an advantage" due to turnout, but due to a gap in enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton compared to enthusiasm for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, they would not see the same level of turnout.[55]

Transportation, the economy, and infrastructure were among the top five issues for Minnesota voters, according to Ricardo Lopez of Star Tribune.[57]

#### Democrats[edit]

Minnesota Democrats launched the "Minnesota Rural Initiative" in early 2015. The program looked to train candidates on how to run rural campaigns. In 2014, state House Democrats lost 10 seats, of which eight were in rural areas. State Rep. Jeanne Poppe said that the program could be "the playbook for 2018 and beyond" in other states.[58] The initiative was launched in response to the Democratic National Committee's "autopsy report" of the 2014 mid-term elections. The report did not mention the loss of rural voters or any solutions on winning them back.[58]

Democrats claimed that Republican control of the state House did nothing more than hinder the state legislature. Governor Mark Dayton (D) said, "I have a partisan view, I admit, but I really believe this session and the previous session are evidence that divided government does not best serve the interests of a better Minnesota." Dayton actively campaigned for DFL candidates in order to see his agenda—and legacy—realized. He pushed to see universal prekindergarten, a robust transportation plan, and investments in clean water.[56]

#### Republicans[edit]

Republicans stated that GOP control of the state House was necessary to prevent excessive government growth. Ben Golnik, the House Republican's chief of staff, said, "DFL[ers] were voted out of office in 2014 because voters saw what one-party rule gave Minnesota: tax increases, wasteful spending, including on the Senate Office Building, and full embrace of Obamacare."[56]

#### Special election[edit]

Republicans picked up a seat in state House District 50B.

On February 9, 2016, Chad Anderson (R) defeated Andrew Carlson (D) in a special election for state House District 50B, which was previously held by Ann Lenczewski (D). President Barack Obama (D) carried this seat in 2012 by picking up 57 percent of the vote and Lenczewski was re-elected in 2014 with a margin of victory of 31 percent. According to the Daily Kos, since Obama only won 50.7 percent of the state House seats in 2012, Democrats would need to have won every seat that Obama won or they needed to win some Republican seats.[59]

## Races we watched[edit]

Senate District 1 \- General election

Two candidates ran for an open Democratic seat.

Incumbent LeRoy Stumpf (D) did not seek re-election. Kip Fontaine defeated Jual Carlson in the Democratic primary. Mark Johnson defeated Edwin Dale Hahn in the Republican primary. Johnson defeated Fontaine in the general election.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

Senate District 17 \- General election

A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent in a potentially competitive race.

Sen. Lyle Koenen (DFL) was defeated by Republican candidate Andrew Lang in 2016.[45][60] Then-Rep. Koenen won the Senate District 17 seat in a 2012 special election after redistricting drew him into the same district as another House incumbent.[61][62] Koenen and Lang both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[45]

Senate District 21 \- General election

A freshman Democratic incumbent faces a challenge in a tight district.

Incumbent Matt Schmit (D) was defeated by Republican candidate Mike Goggin. Both candidates were unopposed in their respective primaries.

In 2012, Schmit was elected to the state Senate after he defeated Republican incumbent John Howe (R) by a margin of victory of five percent. What should be concerning to Democrats is that both House districts are held by Republican incumbents. In 2012, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won the district by 3 percent.[63]

Senate District 24 \- General election

A freshman Democratic incumbent faces a strong challenger.

Republican Faribault Mayor John Jasinski defeated freshman Democratic incumbent Vicki Jensen (DFL). Jensen won election to the Senate in 2012, defeating her opponent by 5 percent. As with the Senate District 21 seat, both House districts are held by Republican incumbents. In 2012, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won the district by 5 percent. Both the Democratic and Republican state political parties see Senate District 24 as a priority.[63]

Senate District 44 \- General election

A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by the Democratic incumbent.

Sen. Terri Bonoff (DFL) ran for the U.S. House of Representatives in Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District, rather than seeking re-election to her state Senate District 44 seat.[45][64][65] Democratic candidate Deb Calvert and Republican candidate Paul Anderson competed for the open seat.[45] Calvert and Anderson both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[45]

Senate District 53 \- General election

A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent.

Incumbent Susan Kent (D) ran for re-election. Kent defeated Sharna Wahlgren (R) in the general election. Kent was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Wahlgren defeated Bill Dahn in the Republican primary. In 2014, Kent won election to the chamber by 4.4 percent.

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

Senate District 58 \- General election

A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by the Republican incumbent.

Sen. Dave Thompson (R), vice president and general counsel for Renters Warehouse, retired from the Senate in 2016 to open a North Carolina office for the company.[66] Republican candidate Tim Pitcher and Democratic candidate Matt Little competed for the open seat in District 58.[45] Pitcher and Little both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[45]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

House District 14B \- General election

A Democratic former lawmaker challenged the Republican incumbent to a rematch.

Former Rep. Zach Dorholt (DFL) represented District 14B in the state House from 2013 to 2015.[67][68] He lost to Rep. Jim Knoblach (R) by 69 votes in the 2014 election, but mounted a rematch bid in 2016.[45][68] Knoblach and Dorholt both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[45] Knoblach defeated Dorholt in the November election.

House District 17B \- General election

A Democratic former lawmaker challenged the Republican incumbent to a rematch.

Former Rep. Mary Sawatzky (DFL) held the seat in House District 17B from 2013 to 2015.[67][68] She lost to Rep. Dave Baker (R) by 214 votes in the 2014 election, but mounted a rematch bid in 2016.[45][68] Baker and Sawatzky both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[45] Baker defeated Sawatzky in the November election.

House District 21A \- General election

Campaign contributions flood into an open seat vacated by a Republican representative.

Incumbent Tim Kelly (R) did not seek re-election. Lisa Bayley (DFL) is a member of the Red Wing City Council. Her opponent, Barb Haley (R), is a businesswoman. Both candidates made significant fundraising efforts, with reports showing a slight advantage towards Bayley.[63][69] Haley defeated Bayley in the November election.

House District 25B \- General election

A former Republican lawmaker is running in a district vacated by a Democratic representative.

Realtor and small business owner Duane Sauke (DFL) defeated Fran Bradley (R) in the general election. Bradley was a representative in the state House from 1995-2006. In 2006, when incumbent Kim Norton (DFL) won election, she did so by beating her opponent by under 1 percent of the vote. Margins of victory in District 25B have widened for Democrats in the elections following 2006. In 2012, President Barack Obama won the district by 9 percent. Sauke and Bradley both ran unopposed in the August 9, 2016, primary election.[63]

House District 27A \- General election

A Republican incumbent is running for re-election in a district with a history of flipping.

House District 27A has seen four different representatives since 2010. Since that point, no incumbent has managed to hold the seat past a first term. Incumbent Peggy Bennett (R) looked to break that trend. Her opponent, Gary Schindler (DFL), is the Riverland Community College Dean of Students.[63] Bennett defeated Schindler in the November election.

House District 28B \- General election

A Republican incumbent ran for re-election against a Democratic candidate.

Incumbent Greg Davids (R) defeated Thomas Trehus (D) in the general election. Both candidates were unopposed in their respective primaries. In 2014, Davids won re-election to the seat by a margin of victory of 11.9 percent.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

House District 42B \- General election

Two candidates ran for an open Democratic seat.

Incumbent Jason Isaacson (D) did not seek re-election. Jamie Becker-Finn (D) defeated Tracy Nelson (R) in the general election. In 2014, Isaacson won re-election to the seat by a margin of victory of 4.8 percent.

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

# Nevada[edit]

Nevada Senate

2016 Election

Seats up: 11 out of 21
Margin of control: 1
% Margin of control: 4.8%
Pre-election control:
Presidential election
2012: President Obama
2008: President Obama

Democrats flipped both chambers of the Nevada Legislature. Notably, Democrats picked up 10 seats in the state Assembly.

Heading into the general election, Nevada was one of 23 Republican state government trifectas. All three areas of the Nevada state government—the state Assembly, the state Senate, and the office of the governor—were controlled by the Republican Party.

The state Senate was most at risk of flipping to Democratic control. Democrats also saw an opportunity to take control of the state Assembly.

Before the Republican Party took control of the Nevada State Senate in the 2014 election, the last time that the party held the majority was in 2008. From 1992 to 2013, the Democratic Party was the majority in the state Senate for the last six years, while Republicans were the majority for the first 16 years.[70]

### Senate[edit]

Main article: 2016 Senate elections

Republicans controlled the state Senate by one seat, which amounted to 4.8 percent of the chamber. Senate Democrats held 11 seats heading into the 2014 general election but emerged with only 10. The Republicans saw the reverse occur, increasing their seats from 10 to 11.[71]

Partisan balance of the Nevada state Senate

Election year  | Seats  | Seats up  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 21 | 12 seats | 1 | 4.8% |  Democratic |  Democratic
2014 | 21 | 11 seats | 1 | 4.8% |  Democratic |  Republican
2016 | 21 | 11 seats | 1 | 4.8% |  Republican |  Democratic

## Battleground context[edit]

The Nevada State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target.[7] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Assembly District 25 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch."[11]

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named Senate District 15 in their "2016 Essential Races."[12][13]

As of June 10, 2016, the Senate Democratic Caucus raised $249,207, while the Republican Caucus raised $99,500.[72][73]

The $1.4 billion tax package and education initiatives passed by the Republican-led legislature in the last legislative session were among the top issues for Nevada voters.[74]

In 2016, voter turnout was expected to be high not only because of the presidential election, but also due to the open seat left by outgoing U.S. Sen. Harry Reid (D).[75]

In 2014, the Senate was identified by Ballotpedia as a battleground chamber, ultimately flipping to Republican control. Even with eight overall retirements due to term limits, the state Assembly unexpectedly showed a much larger flip, changing from a 27-15 Democratic majority to a 27-15 Republican majority. This prompted the Assembly Democratic Caucus to raise nearly $350,000 in 2015; in comparison, the Assembly Republican Caucus raised nearly $24,000. In the Senate, the Democratic Caucus raised over $270,000; the Republican Caucus raised about $84,000. Assembly Majority Leader Paul Anderson (R) told the Nevada Appeal that he anticipated being outraised due to ideological differences between incumbents and donors as well as a lack of contributions to the caucus fund by outgoing or defeated Republicans; he said that the numbers do not foreshadow the outcome of the elections.[76]

Sen. Aaron Ford (D), leader of the Senate Democratic Caucus, said on the 2014 election that "[t]he turnout in 2014 was less of a red wave and more of a blue boycott. I think there has been a lot of introspection that has taken place since then. We plan to capitalize on the enthusiasm we already see out there in the Democratic arena to ensure we regain the majority."[77] Ford went on to explain that Democrats were targeting District 6, District 15, and District 18 in the state Senate. The Republican caucus was focusing on District 5 and District 6. Sen. Ben Kieckhefer (R) believed that Republicans would be able to hold on to the state Senate. Kieckhefer said, "We need to win one of them to hold the majority and we’re pretty confident we are going to be able to do that."[77]

### Competitiveness[edit]

In the past two presidential elections, President Obama won Nevada. He won the state in 2008 by 12 points and in 2012 by 6 points.

Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria

Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [18]
Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [19]

* By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.

* Senate districts: 7 out of 21 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.

* Four of those districts were highly competitive and were all held by Republicans. Three districts were considered mildly competitive.[20]

## Races we watched[edit]

State Senate District 5 \- General election

District 5 featured a closely divided race between Republicans and Democrats.

Incumbent state Sen. Joyce Woodhouse (D) ran for re-election. She defeated Nicholas Lash (D) in the Democratic primary contest. Carrie Buck (R) was unopposed in the Republican primary. Tim Hagan (Lib.) was the lone Libertarian candidate.

According to Daily Kos, Republicans targeted Woodhouse's seat as a potential Republican pick-up in November. In 2012, Woodhouse defeated her Republican opponent by a margin of 52 percent to 48 percent. The district voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2012 by a margin of 52 percent to 46 percent.[78]

State Senate District 6 \- General election

A Republican representative and a Democrat faced off for an open seat left by the GOP incumbent.

Incumbent state Sen. Mark Lipparelli (R) declined to run for re-election. State Rep. Erv Nelson (R) lost to state Rep. Victoria Seaman (R) in the Republican primary contest. Nicole Cannizzaro (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

According to KTNV Channel 13 News, "This race [District 6] is arguably the best litmus test for how Republican primary voters will treat the legislators who took the risk of voting for a tax increase."[79]

The tax increase referred to a bill that will raise and extend $1.4 billion in taxes primarily to fund K-12 education in the state, which was passed by the legislature and signed by Gov. Brian Sandoval (R). Taxes were a major issue in the Republican primary contests. Republicans who voted in favor of the plan received strong criticism from more conservative Republicans, many of whom challenged those incumbents in primaries.

Nelson received the support of the Senate Republican Caucus. A social conservative, Nelson supported a failed bill that would have added religious freedom protections for private businesses similar to Indiana's Religious Freedom Restoration Act. Nelson also voted in favor of the $1.4 billion tax plan while his opponent, Victoria Seaman, voted against it.[79]

District 6 was also a closely divided district in 2016. Lipparelli was appointed to the chamber in 2014 to fill the vacancy left by then-Sen. Mark Hutchison (R), who became lieutenant governor. In 2012, Hutchison defeated his Democratic opponent in District 6 by a margin of 51 percent to 49 percent—901 votes out of 54,097 votes cast. The district voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2012 by a margin of 52 percent to 47 percent.

State Senate District 15 \- General election

A Republican, a Democrat, and a Libertarian competed for an open seat left by the GOP incumbent.

Incumbent state Sen. Greg Brower (R) declined to run for re-election after accepting a job in Washington, D.C. Heidi Gansert (R) defeated Eugene Hoover (R) in the Republican primary contest. Devon Reese (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary. David Colborne (Lib.) was the sole Libertarian candidate.

Gansert, a former chief of staff to Gov. Brian Sandoval (R), received support from Senate Republican leadership, according to KTNV Channel 13 News.[79]

In September 2015, Gansert was criticized for refusing to say whether or not she supported the $1.4 billion tax bill that was signed by Gov. Sandoval, Gansert's former boss. On September 17, 2015, Gansert clarified that she supported Sandoval's agenda and would not vote to repeal the tax bill if elected. Hoover, Gansert's opponent and chairman of a PAC affiliated with the National Federation of Independent Businesses, testified against the bill in the legislature in early 2016.[79][80][81]

District 15 was also a closely divided district in 2016. In 2012, Brower defeated his Democratic opponent by a margin of 50.2 percent to 49.8 percent—266 votes out of 58,438 votes cast. The district voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2012 by a margin of 51 percent to 47 percent.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

State Senate District 18 \- General election

A Democratic candidate challenged the GOP incumbent.

Sen. Scott Hammond (R) faced Alexander Marks (D) in the general election.

In District 18, Republicans had a voter registration edge over Democrats in 2016, but there were also a large number of nonpartisan voters.[82] In 2012, Hammond defeated Kelli Ross (D) by a margin of victory of 2 percent.

# New Hampshire[edit]

New Hampshire Legislature

State Senate

Seats up: 24 out of 24
Margin of control: 4
% Margin of control: 16.7%
Pre-election control:
State House
Seats up: 400 out of 400
Margin of control: 75
% Margin of control: 19%
Pre-election control:
Presidential election
2012: President Obama
2008: President Obama

Republicans held on to both legislative chambers in New Hampshire.

Heading into the general election, New Hampshire was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas.

Republicans had held the New Hampshire State Senate since 2010 and the New Hampshire House of Representatives since 2014. From 1992 to 2010, Republicans held the state Senate for 13 years and Democrats held it for six years. Democrats lost control of the state House in the 2014 election when Republicans flipped 66 seats. From 1992 to the 2014 election, Democrats held the state House for six years, while Republicans held it for 17 years.

### Senate[edit]

Main article: 2016 Senate elections

Republicans controlled the New Hampshire State Senate by four seats, which amounted to 16.7 percent of the chamber.[27] In 2014, Republicans increased their lead in the state Senate, going from 12 to 14 seats. Democrats sustained a net loss of one seat, dropping from 11 to 10 seats.

Partisan balance of the New Hampshire state Senate

Election year  | Seats  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control[83] | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 24 | 14 seats | 58% |  Republican |  Republican
2014 | 24 | 2 seats | 8% |  Republican |  Republican
2016 | 24 | 4 seats | 16.7% |  Republican |  Republican

### House[edit]

Main article: 2016 House elections

Republicans controlled the New Hampshire state House by 75 seats, which amounted to 19 percent of the chamber.[27] In 2014, Republicans overcame a 40-seat Democratic majority to retake the state House. Republicans picked up 66 seats, while Democrats lost 53 seats. Since 2010, the state House has flipped party control every election year.

Partisan balance of the New Hampshire House of Representatives

Election year  | Seats  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control[84] | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 400 | 192 seats | 48% |  Republican |  Democratic
2014 | 400 | 40 seats | 11% |  Democratic |  Republican
2016 | 400 | 75 seats | 19% |  Republican |  Republican

## Battleground context[edit]

The New Hampshire General Court has the third largest legislature in the world at 424 new members. In the previous few elections, the state House had massive partisan swings, while the state Senate stayed in Republican control.

### State Senate[edit]

Former Senate President Peter Bragdon (R) said that the state Senate does not have massive partisan swings like in the state House because 2010 redistricting made the state Senate's "Democratic and Republican-leaning districts even more partisan."[85] Bragdon said, "The majority has to respect the minority for things to happen in the Senate and that has always been the case. I think Republicans have kept control in part because they don't grind down the Democrats like can happen in the House."[85] Charles Arlinghaus, the president of the conservative Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy and a former GOP political operative, said on the New Hampshire State Senate that, "I see the Senate as wide open this fall. The Democrats could end up with anywhere between nine and 14 members."[85]

Democrats had only held the state Senate from 1998-2002, and from 2006-2010 since 1912. During both periods of time, Democrats were backed by two popular governors who won election by large margins.[85] Seven Senate incumbents—five Republicans and two Democrats—did not seek re-election in 2016. There was also one vacant seat that was previously held by a Republican. Gene Martin, executive director of the New Hampshire Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said on the Democrats' chances of flipping the state Senate that, "There’s a lot of these open seats and there’s a lot of vulnerable incumbents. I think we have a great shot at picking up a majority."[86]

Ross Berry, executive director for the New Hampshire Republican State Committee, admitted that the presidential election makes open seats more vulnerable to partisan change but believed all talk about a legislature partisan flip was premature. Berry said, "Of course (the number of open seats) is a factor: the candidate in the seat already has built in name recognition. (But) this is New Hampshire, where independents dominate the scene; our candidates have to earn the votes on their own and show voters why they’re better than others."[86]

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named Senate District 12 and Senate District 23 in their "2016 Essential Races."[12][13]

As of September 2016, the Senate Republican Majority PAC had almost $250,000 in the bank. The Senate Democratic Caucus had been one of the state's leading PACs in fundraising over the past two decades.[85]

### State House[edit]

The state House had gone through massive swings in recent years. Democrats overcame a 98-seat Republican majority in 2006 before the Republicans rebounded in the 2010 elections. Republicans overcame a 40-seat majority in 2014 to retake control of the chamber. One hundred and three House incumbents—64 Republicans and 39 Democrats—were not seeking re-election in 2016. There were also twelve vacant seats. The vacant seats were previously represented by five Democrats and seven Republicans.

The New Hampshire House of Representatives was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target for 2016.[7] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.

### Presidential election[edit]

The presidential election was expected to play some role in down-ballot races in New Hampshire, with the most vulnerable races being the state Senate and state House races with open seats. Joseph Bafumi, associate professor of government at Dartmouth College, said on open seats that, "Those are the seats that are most likely to change hands from one party to the other and, when they do change hands, they tend to go in the direction of the party that is doing best nationally."[86]

Senate Democratic Leader Jeff Woodburn believed that Democrats could overcome a party registration deficit with a Hillary Clinton (D) win. Dante Scala, chair of the political science department at the University of New Hampshire, wondered if a Donald Trump (R) defeat could propel Democrats to a state Senate majority. Scala said, "What will be interesting to see is which GOPers can keep their heads above water if Trump doesn't come back and loses top of ticket by 10."[85] Conservative Charles Arlinghaus did not believe that this year's presidential election would have a large impact on down-ballot elections. Arlinghaus said, "I can see people making this presidential choice independently. Ideology does not win a state Senate seat either. These races are all about communication and hard work; the candidates who do those two things well, they'll be celebrating in November."[85]

### Competitiveness[edit]

* In the past two presidential elections, President Obama won New Hampshire. He won the state in 2008 by 9 points and in 2012 by 6 points.

Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria

Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [18]
Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [19]

* By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.

* Senate districts: Fourteen out of 24 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.

* Twelve of those districts were highly competitive and were all held by Republicans except two. Two districts were considered mildly competitive.[20]

* House districts: 78 out of 204 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.

* Thirty-seven of those districts were highly competitive and the majority of the seats in those districts were held by Republicans. Out of the 77 seats that made up the 37 highly competitive districts, nine of the seats were held by Democrats and the other 68 seats were held by Republicans. Forty-one districts were considered mildly competitive.[20]

## Races we watched[edit]

Senate District 2 \- General election

A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent.

Bob Giuda (R) defeated Charlie Chandler (D) in the November 2016 general election.[87]

Sen. Jeanie Forrester (R) didn't run for re-election to her Senate District 2 seat in 2016, opting instead for a bid for the governorship.[45][88] Democrats viewed the open seat in a district that voted for Obama over Romney 50.6 percent to 47.3 percent as a possible pickup opportunity.[88] Former Rep. Charlie Chandler (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Former Rep. Bob Giuda (R) defeated Rep. Brian Gallagher (R) in the Republican primary.

Senate District 6 \- General election

A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent.

James Gray defeated Joe Casey in the November 2016 general election.[87]

Sen. Sam Cataldo (R) retired from his Senate District 6 seat in 2016.[45][88] Democrats viewed the open seat in a district that voted for Obama over Romney 49.7 percent to 48.6 percent as a possible pickup opportunity.[88]

Senate District 8 \- General election

A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent.

Ruth Ward (R) defeated John Garvey (D) in the November 2016 general election.[87]

Sen. Jerry Little (R) resigned from his Senate District 8 seat in June 2016 to accept an appointment as state banking commissioner.[45][88][89] Democrats viewed the open seat in a district that voted for Obama over Romney 50.8 percent to 47.2 percent as a possible pickup opportunity.[88] John Garvey was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Ruth Ward defeated Jim Beard in the Republican primary.

Senate District 12 \- General election

A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent for this seat.

Republican incumbent Kevin Avard defeated Democrat Peggy Gilmour in the November 2016 general election.[87]

Incumbent Kevin Avard ran for re-election in 2016. He was unopposed in the Republican primary. Peggy Gilmour was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Incumbent Avard was elected to the state Senate in 2014. He defeated then incumbent Peggy Gilmour (D) in the general election by a margin of victory of 1.6 percent.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

Senate District 23 \- General election

A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent.

William Gannon (R) defeated Alexis Simpson in the 2016 general election.[87]

Sen. Russell Prescott (R) retired from his seat in 2016. State Rep. Alexis Simpson was unopposed in the Democratic primary. State Rep. William Gannon defeated Maureen Barrows, Bob Goodman, and Nancy Steenson in the Republican primary. Simpson and Gannon faced off in the November general election.[45]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

# New Mexico[edit]

New Mexico Legislature

State Senate

Seats up: 42 out of 42
Margin of control: 6
% Margin of control: 14.3%
Pre-election control:
State House
Seats up: 70 out of 70
Margin of control: 4
% Margin of control: 5.7%
Pre-election control:
Presidential election
2012: President Obama
2008: President Obama

Democrats flipped the state House, gaining control of both legislative chambers in New Mexico.

Heading into the general election, New Mexico was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas.

The Democratic Party had controlled the New Mexico State Senate since 1989. Before the Republican Party gained control of the New Mexico House of Representatives in the 2014 election, Democrats had controlled the New Mexico House of Representatives since 1953.[90]

### Senate[edit]

Main article: 2016 Senate elections

Democrats controlled the New Mexico Senate by six seats, which amounted to 14.3 percent of the chamber.[27] In 2012, the last year that the Senate held elections, Republicans gained three seats.

Partisan balance of the New Mexico state Senate

Election year  | Seats  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | # of Competitive districts  | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 42 | 14 seats | 33% | N/A |  Democratic |  Democratic
2016 | 42 | 6 seats | 14.3% | 4 |  Democratic |  Democratic

### House[edit]

Main article: 2016 House elections

Republicans controlled the New Mexico House by four seats, which amounted to 5.7 percent of the chamber.[27] The Republican Party took control of the House in the 2014 election. Prior to the general election, the chamber's composition was 37-33, with Democrats holding the majority. Following the general election, that composition was mirrored, with the Republicans holding 37 seats (up from 33) and the Democrats holding 33 seats (down from 37).[91]

Partisan balance of the New Mexico House of Representatives

Election year  | Seats  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | # of Competitive districts  | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 70 | 3 seats | 4% | N/A |  Democratic |  Democratic
2014 | 70 | 4 seats | 5.7% | 9 |  Democratic |  Republican
2016 | 70 | 4 seats | 5.7% | 3 |  Republican |  Democratic

## Battleground context[edit]

The New Mexico State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as an offensive target in 2016. The New Mexico House of Representatives was identified by RLCC as a defensive target.[7] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races during the 2015-2016 election cycle.

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 9, Senate District 29, House District 24, House District 32, and House District 43 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Two of those seats, both in the Senate, involved an incumbent.[9][11]

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named Senate District 29, House District 4, House District 15, and House District 30 in their "2016 Essential Races."[12][13][54]

### State Senate[edit]

Debbie Maestas, chair of the Republican Party of New Mexico, thought her party has a "window of opportunity" to take over the state Senate in 2016. If Republicans had flipped the state Senate and kept control of the state House, it would have been the first time since 1930 that Republicans have controlled both chambers and the governor's office. Maestas believed that a Republican trifecta would be beneficial to the state in relation legislation being passed. Maestas said, "With a Republican governor and having taken the House, if we can take the state Senate, then we have a good two-year window of opportunity to pass legislation that would help benefit New Mexico that we’ve never been able to do before. I shouldn’t say never. We haven’t been able to do it in the last 50 years. So this is really important. So we’ve been doing a lot of candidate recruitment."[92] Republicans need to only pick up a net gain of three seats to take over the state Senate.

Republicans targeted Democratic incumbents Daniel Ivey-Soto, John Sapien, William P. Soules, and Michael Sanchez in 2016.[92] Since the state's Senate seats are only up for election every four years, they are up during presidential election years, which tends to benefit Democrats more than in off-year elections.[93]

### State House[edit]

The Democratic Party lost control of the state House in 2014. Democrats needed to flip just three seats to regain control of the state House. Jessica Post, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, believed that Democrats had a great chance of retaking the New Mexico State House—as well as other chambers in the U.S. that were under Republican control—because of it being a presidential election year. Post said, "We thought that no matter who the presidential nominee was, we thought we had an excellent shot at winning back the Minnesota House, winning back the New Mexico House, for example."[94]

Debbie Maestas, chair of the Republican Party of New Mexico, stated that five Republican incumbents were vulnerable in 2016. She did not name the five incumbents, but she said that "[w]e’ve got to make sure and push hard on those efforts."[92] House Republican incumbents in House Districts 15, 24, 37, and 39 all won election in 2014 by a small margin.

### Competitiveness[edit]

* In the past two presidential elections, President Obama had comfortably won New Mexico. He won the state in 2008 by 15 points and in 2012 by 10 points.

Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria

Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [18]
Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [19]

* By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.

* Senate districts: 10 out of 42 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.

* Four of those districts were highly competitive and were all held by Republicans. Six districts were considered mildly competitive.[20]

* House districts: 25 out of 70 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.

* Eleven of those districts were highly competitive and all were held by Republicans except two. Fourteen districts were considered mildly competitive.[20]

## Races we watched[edit]

State Senate District 9 \- General election

The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican opponent in a closely divided district.

Incumbent state Sen. John Sapien (D) ran for re-election and defeated Jodilynn Ortiz in the Democratic primary contest. Sapien faced Diego Espinoza (R) in November.

The chair of the Republican Party of New Mexico said that District 9 was one of four state Senate seats the party targeted in an attempt to gain control of the chamber.[95]

In 2012, Sapien defeated former state Rep. David Doyle (R) by a margin of 50 percent to 49 percent—just 161 votes out of 23,147 votes cast.

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 9 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch" to watch.[96]

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

State Senate District 15 \- General election

The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican opponent.

Incumbent state Sen. Daniel Ivey-Soto (D) ran for re-election. He faced Eric Burton (R) in November.

The chair of the Republican Party of New Mexico said that District 15 is one of four state Senate seats the party is targeting in an attempt to gain control of the chamber.[97]

In 2012, Ivey-Soto defeated his Republican opponent by a margin of 52 percent to 47 percent.

State Senate District 29 \- General election

The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican opponent.

Incumbent state Sen. Michael Sanchez (D) ran for re-election. He faced Gregory A. Baca (R) in November.

The chair of the Republican Party of New Mexico said that District 29 was one of four state Senate seats the party targeted in an attempt to gain control of the chamber.[95]

In 2012, Sanchez defeated his Republican opponent by a margin of 55 percent to 44 percent.

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 29 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch" to watch.[98]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »
This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

State Senate District 36 \- General election

The Republican incumbent faced a Democratic opponent.

Incumbent state Sen. Lee Cotter (R) ran for re-election. He faced former state Rep. Jeff Steinborn (D) in November.

In 2012, Cotter defeated his Democratic opponent by a margin of 53 percent to 46 percent.[95]

State Senate District 37 \- General election

The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican opponent.

Incumbent state Sen. William P. Soules ran for re-election. He faced Cecelia H. Levatino (R) in November.

The chair of the Republican Party of New Mexico said that District 37 was one of four state Senate seats the party targeted in an attempt to gain control of the chamber.[95]

In 2012, Soules defeated his Republican opponent by a margin of 52 percent to 47 percent.

State Senate District 39 \- General election

An appointed Republican incumbent ran for a full term.

Incumbent state Sen. Ted Barela (R), who was appointed by Gov. Susana Martinez (R) in 2015, ran for a full term. He faced Liz Stefanics (D) in November.

Barela was appointed to replace Phil Griego (D), who resigned in the wake of an ethics violation.[99]

Martinez appointed Barela to the seat out of four people nominated by six county commissioners. Three out of the six counties nominated Santa Fe County Commissioner Liz Stefanics (D), who competed in the 2016 Democratic primary to replace Barela, as their pick.[100]

State House District 4 \- General election

The Republican incumbent faced a Democratic opponent.

Incumbent state Rep. Sharon E. Clahchischilliage (R) ran for re-election. She faced Glojean B. Todacheene (D) in November.

In 2014, Clahchischilliage was re-elected to the chamber by a margin of 60 percent to 40 percent.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

State House District 15 \- General election

The Republican incumbent faced a Democratic opponent.

Incumbent state Rep. Sarah Maestas Barnes (R) ran for re-election. She faced Ane Romero (D) in November.

In 2014, Barnes was elected to the chamber by a margin of 51 percent to 48 percent.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

State House District 24 \- General election

A Republican and a Democrat competed for the open seat left by the Republican incumbent.

Incumbent state Rep. Conrad James (R) declined to run for re-election. Christina Marie Hall (R) defeated Ryan N. Boyle (R) in the Republican primary contest. Former state Rep. Elizabeth L. Thomson (D) was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Hall and Thomson faced off in November.

According to the Albuquerque Journal, "The House District 24 seat is seen as key to determining whether Republicans will keep control of the House in this year’s general election and could be one of the state’s most expensive races – both in terms of candidate and outside spending."[101]

The seat has gone back and forth between Republicans and Democrats since 2010. James, the outgoing incumbent, defeated Thomson in 2010. Thomson won back the seat in 2012, while James won back the seat in 2014.[101]

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named House District 24 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch" to watch.[102]

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

State House District 30 \- General election

The Republican incumbent faced a Democratic opponent.

Incumbent state Rep. Nathaniel Gentry (R) ran for re-election. He faced Natalie R. Figueroa (D) in November.

In 2014, Gentry was re-elected to the chamber by a margin of victory of 8.6 percent.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

State House District 32 \- General election

A Republican and a Democrat competed for the open seat left by the Democratic incumbent.

Incumbent state Rep. Dona Irwin (D) declined to run for re-election. Vicki K. Chavez (R) defeated J. Scott Chandler (R) in the Republican primary contest. Candie G. Sweetser (D) defeated Frederick H. Sherman in the Democratic primary. Chavez and Sweetser faced off in November.

In 2014, Irwin was re-elected to the seat by 6.2 percent. The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named House District 32 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch" to watch.[103]

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

State House District 37 \- General election

District 37 featured a candidate rematch.

Incumbent state Rep. Terry McMillan (R) ran for re-election. He faced Joanne J. Ferrary (D) in November.

In 2014, McMillan defeated Ferrary by a margin of 52 percent to 47 percent.

State House District 39 \- General election

District 39 featured a candidate rematch.

Incumbent state Rep. John L. Zimmerman (R) ran for re-election. He faced Rodolpho Martinez (D) in November.

In 2014, Zimmerman defeated Martinez by a margin of 52 percent to 47 percent.

State House District 43 \- General election

A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent.

Incumbent state Rep. Stephanie Garcia Richard (D) ran for re-election. She faced Sharon Stover (R) in the general election. Both candidates were unopposed in their respective primaries.

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

# New York[edit]

New York Senate

2016 Election

Seats up: 63 out of 63
Margin of control: 1
% Margin of control: 1.6%
Pre-election control:
Presidential election
2012: President Obama
2008: President Obama

Democrats maintained a numerical majority in the state Senate, but did not pick up enough seats to prevent a power-sharing agreement.

Heading into the general election, New York was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas.

Democrats held the numerical advantage in the New York State Senate since a 2016 special election. Although Democrats had a numerical majority, the state Senate was controlled by Republicans through a power-sharing agreement. Simcha Felder (D) was a part of the Republican Conference. Jeffrey Klein, David Valesky, David Carlucci, Diane Savino, and Tony Avella were a part of the Independent Democratic Conference, tipping the balance further towards the GOP. Before the special election. Republicans had held the majority off and on for over four decades.[104]

### Senate[edit]

Main article: 2016 Senate elections

Democrats controlled the New York Senate by one seat, which amounted to 1.6 percent of the chamber. Even though Democrats numerically controlled the chamber, in actuality Republicans controlled the state Senate because of a coalition with the Independent Democratic Conference. [27]

In 2014 election, Republicans gained control of the New York Senate. Before the general election, the Democratic Party occupied 32 seats. However, the general election saw them lose one seat, decreasing their seats to 31. The Republicans, on the other hand, gained three seats to increase their total seats from 29 to 32.[105]

Partisan balance of the New York state Senate

Election year  | Seats  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | # of Competitive districts  | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 63 | 4 | 6.34% | - |  |
2014 | 63 | 3 | 4.76% | 9 |  |
2016 | 63 | 1 | 1.6% | 3 |  |

## Battleground context[edit]

Before the Republican Party regained control of the state Senate in 2014, the party had held the majority off and on for over four decades. The Democratic Party gained the majority in 2008 but lost it in 2010. While Democrats held the numerical advantage after the 2012 election, a coalition of the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC) and the Republicans helped give Republicans control.[106] Since Senate Democrats won a special election in District 9 on April 19, 2016, Democrats held a one-seat advantage over Republicans, but the power-sharing agreement between the IDC and Senate Republicans kept the chamber in Republican control.

The New York State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target for 2016.[7] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named Senate District 6 and Senate District 7 in their "2016 Essential Races."[12][13]

Of the 25 state Senate seats deemed competitive by Ballotpedia, 24 were effectively controlled by the Republican Party. One of those seats belonged to David Carlucci, a Republican-leaning member of the Independent Democratic Conference. Twenty of those districts were won by Barack Obama in 2012. These competitive races, coupled with the idea that a Clinton win in the state would also bring legislative seats, gave possibility that control of the New York State Senate could have shifted into the Democrats' favor.

An article published on the political research website FiveThirtyEight.com speculated that the presidential election would affect state legislative races. Seth Masket, the author of this article, noted that, historically, there is a measurable "trickle-down" affect from presidential elections. A victory or loss on the presidential ticket tends to translate to comparable gains or losses in the legislative branch. Clinton's victory in New York likely helped Senate Democrats.[107]

Long Island was considered to be one of the key battlegrounds in the state Senate since its nine-member delegation was made up of eight Republicans.[108] One of the campaign strategies for Long Island Democratic candidates was to tie Nassau County's Republican Senate candidates to Donald Trump (R). Senate Majority Leader John Flanagan (R) endorsed Trump for president. Flanagan said, "I’m going to make this unequivocally clear. I’m supporting Donald Trump for president. I’m going to do so with grace, with diplomacy, with passion and with fervor and I’m going to do it with New York style."[109] A Siena poll from September 2016 found that, "62% of voters statewide — including 56% in the suburbs — believed that Trump would hurt, not help, the GOP effort to maintain its Senate majority. The same poll showed 67% of suburban voters held an unfavorable view of Trump and just 32% in the suburbs were prepared to vote for him in November."[110] Senate GOP spokesman Scott Reif believed that Democrats had a "complete and absolute fixation on Donald Trump" to hide their failures of when they controlled the Senate in 2009 and 2010. Reif said, "When you are wrong on all of the issues that Long Island taxpayers and their families care about — and the Senate Democrats are thoroughly and utterly wrong — you look for anything else to put in front of voters."[110]

### Competitiveness[edit]

* In the past two presidential elections, President Obama won New York by 27 points. He won the state in 2008 by 27 points and in 2012 by 27 points.

Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria

Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [18]
Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [19]

* By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.

* Senate districts: 25 out of 63 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.

* Thirteen of those districts were highly competitive and were all held by Republicans. Twelve districts were considered mildly competitive.[20]

## Races we watched[edit]

Senate District 6 \- General election

A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent to a rematch.

Kemp Hannon (R) defeated Ryan Cronin (D) in the November 2016 general election.[87]

Democrat Ryan E. Cronin (D) challenged Sen. Kemp Hannon (R) to a rematch in Senate District 6 in 2016.[45] Hannon defeated Cronin in 2012 by a margin of victory of four percent. Democrats viewed the rematch as a potential pickup opportunity in their bid for control of the Senate. Cronin and Hannon both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[45]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

Senate District 7 \- General election

A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent.

Elaine Phillips (R) defeated Adam Haber (D) in the November 2016 general election.[87]

Sen. Jack Martins (R) did not run for re-election to his Senate District 7 seat in 2016, opting instead for a bid for the U.S. House in New York's 3rd Congressional District.[111] Democrats viewed the open seat as a potential pickup opportunity in their bid for control of the Senate.[112] Democratic candidate Adam Haber made an unsuccessful run for the seat in 2014.[49]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

Senate District 9 \- General election

A Republican candidate and Green Party candidate challenged the newly elected Democratic incumbent to a rematch.

Incumbent Todd Kaminsky (D) defeated Christopher McGrath (R) in the 2016 general election.[87]

Republican candidate Christopher McGrath challenged Sen. Todd Kaminsky (D) to a rematch in competitive Senate District 9 in 2016.[45][112][113] Kaminsky won the District 9 seat over McGrath in a closely contested special election in April 2016, and Republicans viewed it as a potential pickup opportunity in their bid for control of the Senate.[112][113] Kaminsky also faced Green Party candidate Laurence Hirsh in his bid for election to a full term.[45]

Senate District 40 \- General election

A Democratic candidate and Working Families candidate challenged the freshman Republican incumbent.

Sen. Terrence Murphy (R) defeated challenger Alison Boak (D) in the November 2016 general election.[87][45][112][113] Democrats viewed the seat as a potential pickup opportunity in their bid for control of the Senate. [112] Boak defeated Andrew Falk in the Democratic primary. Murphy was unopposed in the Republican primary. [45]

Senate District 41 \- General election

A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent to a rematch.

Former Sen. Terry Gipson (D) was defeated by Sen. Sue Serino (R) in the November 2016 general election, a rematch for Senate District 41.[87][45][49] Serino narrowly defeated then-Sen. Gipson to win the seat in 2014.[49] Democrats viewed the rematch as a potential pickup opportunity in their bid for control of the Senate.[112] Serino and Gipson both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[45]

Senate District 60 \- General election

A Democrat, a Republican, and a Green Party candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Democratic incumbent.

Christopher Jacobs (R) defeated Amber Small (D) in the November 2016 general election.[87]

Sen. Marc Panepinto (D) retired from his Senate District 60 seat in 2016.[112][113] Republicans viewed the open seat as a potential pickup opportunity in their bid for control of the Senate.[112][113] Christopher Jacobs defeated Kevin Stocker in the Republican primary, while Amber Small defeated Alfred Coppola in the Democratic primary. Jacobs, Small, and Green Party candidate James DePasquale faced off for the seat in November.[45]

# Washington[edit]

Washington Legislature

State Senate

Seats up: 26 out of 49
Margin of control: 1
% Margin of control: 2%
Pre-election control:
State House

Seats up: 98 out of 98
Margin of control: 2
% Margin of control: 2%
Pre-election control:
Presidential election
2012: President Obama
2008: President Obama

Democrats gained a numerical majority in the state Senate, but a power-sharing agreement gives Republicans effective control of the chamber.

Heading into the general election, Washington was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas.

Before the Republican Party took control of the Washington State Senate in the 2014 election, the last time that the party held the majority was in 2002. The Democratic Party has held the Washington House of Representatives since 2002.

### Senate[edit]

Main article: 2016 Senate elections

Republicans controlled the Washington State Senate by one seat, which amounted to 2 percent of the chamber.[27] Before the 2014 general election, Democrats controlled the chamber with 25 seats to 24 for the Republican Party. After the general election, that number flipped, with Republicans increasing their seats to 25 and the Democratic seats dropping to 24.

Partisan balance of the Washington state Senate

Election year  | Seats  | Seats up  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 49 | 26 seats | 5 | 10.2% |  Democratic |  Democratic
2014 | 49 | 25 seats | 1 | 2% |  Democratic |  Republican
2016 | 49 | 26 seats | 1 | 2% |  Republican |  Democratic

### House[edit]

Main article: 2016 House elections

Democrats controlled the Washington House by two seats, which amounted to 2 percent of the chamber.[27] Republican Teri Hickel defeated incumbent Rep. Carol Gregory (D) in a special election on November 3, 2015, by a margin of victory of 10 percent. This Republican special election victory brought the lead of House Democrats to only two seats.

Partisan balance of the Washington House of Representatives

Election year  | Seats  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 98 | 14 | 14.2 |  Democratic |  Democratic
2014 | 98 | 12 | 12.2 |  Democratic |  Democratic
2016 | 98 | 2 | 2 |  Democratic |  Democratic

## Battleground context[edit]

The Washington State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target. The Washington House of Representatives was identified by RLCC as an offensive target.[7] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races during the 2015-2016 election cycle.

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 17, House District 44-Position 1, and House District 45-Position 1 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch."[9][11]

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named House District 30-Position 1 and Senate District 28 in their "2016 Essential Races."[12][13]

The political control of Washington State was subject to drastic change depending on the 2016 general election results. Republicans controlled the state Senate by one seat, while Democrats controlled the state House by two seats. The following scenarios were possible in the legislature:

* Status quo: chambers are divided.

* In the status quo scenario, the next two years in the Washington Legislature would be similar to the past two years since Republicans took over the state Senate. Neither major party would be able to further their own policy agendas without bipartisan support.[114]

* Democratic trifecta: Democrats retake the state Senate and retain the state House.

* If Democrats controlled the governor's office and both chambers of the legislature, Democrats would have the opportunity to further their policies. In past legislative sessions, the GOP Senate blocked Democratic legislation dealing with gun regulation and climate-change legislation.[114]

* Republicans control both chambers: Republicans retain the state Senate and flip the state House.

* If Republicans controlled both the state Senate and state House, Republicans would be able to create the state budget and further their own priorities without intervention from Democratic lawmakers. Republicans would also be able to block Democratic policies. Democrats would need to have relied on the veto powers of Gov. Jay Inslee (D) to block legislation.[114]

### Senate[edit]

Seven Senate incumbents—four Republicans and three Democrats—did not seek re-election in 2016. Since Republican presidential nominees have such a hard time winning in Washington, Senate Republicans looked to differentiate themselves from Donald Trump (R). Brent Ludeman, executive director of the Senate Republican Campaign Committee, said on presidential elections and Washington State that, "We’ve always had to overcome the national environment regardless of who’s at the top of the ticket."[114]

Since only about half of the state Senate was up for election in 2016, Adam Bartz, executive director for the Washington Senate Democratic Campaign, said that Democrats didn't have to defend as many seats compared to past elections. Bartz said Democrats were going on the offensive in many districts and he believed that they "...have really great opportunities this year."[114]

### House[edit]

Fourteen House incumbents—seven Republicans and seven Democrats—did not seek re-election in 2016. Kevin Carns, executive director for the House Republican Organizational Committee, argued that the open seat created by Christopher Hurst's (D-31b) retirement made the chamber effectively tied going into the general election. Hurst had represented District 31 since his election in 2006. District 31 is predominantly made up of Republicans and the other two state legislators from the district were Republican. In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) and the Republican candidate for governor won the district. Carns said, "I’m really confident that’s going to be in the win column for us. I’m pretty confident there’s going to be a new party in control in January."[114]

### Competitiveness[edit]

* In the past two presidential elections, President Obama has comfortably won Washington. He won the state in 2008 by 17 points and in 2012 by 14 points.

Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria

Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [18]
Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [19]

* By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.

* Legislative districts: 13 out of 49 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.

* Nine of those districts were highly competitive and four districts were considered mildly competitive.[20]

## Races we watched[edit]

House District 28-Position 2 \- General election

A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent in a closely divided district.

Paul Wagemann (R) was defeated by state Rep. Christine Kilduff (D) in the November general election.[87][45] Wagemann and Kilduff defeated Michael Winkler (R) and Brandon Lyons (L) in the primary election.[45] With Democrats holding only a narrow lead in the House coming in to the election, partisan control of the chamber was at stake in the November general election.[115]

House District 30-Position 1 \- General election

A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent in this district.

Mike Pellicciotti (D) defeated state Rep. Linda Kochmar (R) in the November 2016 general election.[87]

Kochmar was re-elected to the state House in 2014 by a margin of victory of 13.2 percent.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

House District 31-Position 2 \- General election

In this open seat, a Republican and an Independent Democrat faced off in this Republican leaning district.

Incumbent Christopher Hurst (D) did not run for re-election. Lane Walthers (Independent Democrat) was defeated by Phil Fortunato (R) in the November 2016 general election.[87] In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) and the Republican candidae for governor won the district. Incumbent Hurst won re-election in 2014 by a margin of victory of 3 percent. With Democrats holding only a narrow lead in the House coming in to the election, partisan control of the chamber was at stake in the November general election.[116]

House District 44-Position 1 \- General election

A Republican candidate challenged a recently-appointed Democratic incumbent.

Former state Rep. and former Snohomish County Executive John Lovick (D) aimed to defend his new seat in swing House District 44 against Republican challenger Janice Huxford, although this race has not yet been called.[87][45][116] Lovick was appointed to the seat in June, following Rep. Hans Dunshee's (D) resignation to join the Snohomish County Council.[117][118] Lovick and Huxford defeated Wilberforce Agyekum (ind.) in the primary election. Lovick and Huxford faced off in the November general election.[45] With Democrats holding only a narrow lead in the House coming in to the election, partisan control of the chamber was at stake in the November general election.[116]

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

House District 45-Position 1 \- General election

A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent.

Incumbent Roger Goodman (D) defeated Ramiro Valderrama (R) in the November 2016 general election.[87] Both candidates were unopposed in the two-party primary. In 2014, Goodman won re-election to the seat by a margin of victory of 10 percent.

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

Senate District 5 \- General election

A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent in a Republican-leaning district.

Rep. Chad Magendanz (R) challenged Sen. Mark Mullet (D) in a Republican-leaning Senate District 5.[45][117] Magendanz and Mullet both ran unopposed in the two-party primary.[45] With Republicans holding only a narrow lead in the Senate coming in to the election, partisan control of the chamber was at stake in the November general election.[116] This race is still too close to call.[87]

Senate District 17 \- General election

A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent.

Sen. Don Benton (R) retired from his District 17 seat in 2016.[116] Rep. Lynda Wilson (R) defeated Tim Probst (I-D) in the November 2016 general election[87]. Probst also ran for the seat in 2012, losing to Benton by just 78 votes.[119] Wilson and Probst both ran unopposed in the two-party primary.[45] With Republicans holding only a narrow lead in the Senate coming in to the election, partisan control of the chamber was at stake in the November general election.[116]

This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

Senate District 28 \- General election

A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent in this seat.

Marisa Peloquin (D) was defeated by Sen. Steve O'Ban (R) in the November 2016 general election.[87]

O'Ban was re-elected to the state Senate in 2014 by a margin of victory of nine percent.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

# West Virginia[edit]

West Virginia Senate

2016 Election

Seats up: 18 out of 34
Margin of control: 2
% Margin of control: 5.9%
Pre-election control:
Presidential election
2012: Mitt Romney
2008: Sen. John McCain

Republicans expanded their majorities in the state Senate by four seats.

Heading into the general election, West Virginia was one of 20 states under divided government and therefore not one of the state government trifectas. Both chambers of the legislature were controlled by Republicans, while Democrats controlled the governor's office.

Before the Republican Party took control of the West Virginia State Senate in the 2014 election, the Democratic Party had held the chamber for more than 80 years.[120] The Democratic Party in West Virginia might have lost the majority in both chambers of the state legislature in the 2014 election, but the gradual decline of the party in the state began in 2010. Democrats lost 11 seats in the state Senate from 2010 until 2014.

### Senate[edit]

Main article: 2016 Senate elections

Republicans controlled the West Virginia Senate by two seats, which amounted to 5.9 percent of the chamber. On the night of the 2014 election, the chamber was tied at 17 seats a piece for Democrats and Republicans, but the party switch by Daniel Hall (R) gave Republicans the majority. Hall changed his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican the day after the election.[27]

Partisan balance of the West Virginia state Senate

Election year  | Seats  | Seats up  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | # of Competitive districts  | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 34 | 17 | 22 | 64.70% | 3 |  |
2014 | 34 | 17 | 14 | 41.1% | 3 |  |
2016 | 34 | 18 | 2 | 5.9% | 5 |  |

## Battleground context[edit]

The West Virginia State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target for 2016.[7] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 16 and House District 38 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch.”[9]

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named Senate District 16 in their "2016 Essential Races."[54]

Out of the state Senate's 34 seats, Democrats controlled 16 seats and Republicans controlled 18 seats. Democrats needed to win 12 of the 18 seats up for election to flip the chamber, while Republicans only needed to retain eight seats to keep the chamber in Republican control.[121] Five seats were competitive in 2016. Four Senate incumbents—one Republican and three Democrats—did not seek re-election in 2016. Two incumbents, Robert Ashley (R-3) and Art Kirkendoll (D-7), were defeated in the primary election on May 10, 2016.

In 2012, the last year when this year's state Senate districts held elections, three districts had competitive elections. Races in Districts 8, 9, and 16 were decided by eight points or less. District 8 went to a Republican, while Districts 9 and 16 were won by Democrats. However, Daniel Hall, who won District 9 as a Democrat, changed to the Republican Party after the election and resigned at the beginning of 2016. Republican Sue Cline was appointed to take his seat. Herb Snyder, the Democratic incumbent of District 16, did not run for re-election. Democrats, as a result, did not have the benefit of incumbency in these competitive districts leading up to the election.

Some of the major issues among West Virginia voters included right-to-work, the prevailing wage, and safety regulations. These issues were pushed through the Republican legislature during the 2016 regular session. The legislature overturned the governor's veto and passed a right-to-work bill.[122] Labor unions were expected to use their influence in the 2016 election to flip the state Senate.[121]

### Voter turnout[edit]

Democrats held a voter registration advantage over Republicans of 16 percent. As of September 2016, Democrats made up 46 percent of registered voters, and Republicans made up 30 percent. The other 24 percent of registered voters were made up of Mountain Party, Libertarian, no party, and other.[123] Voter turnout was expected to be high in 2016 because of the presidential election. West Virginia Democrats hoped that the lack of Barack Obama on the Democratic ticket would increase Democratic turnout. Democratic state politicians blamed Obama's "non-existent War on Coal" as one of the reasons for the Republican resurgence in the state.[121][124]

The 2016 primary election had a voter turnout of about 40 percent. In the last two presidential election years, 2008 and 2012, the state had a primary turnout of 36 percent and 27 percent, respectively. In 2014, the voter turnout in the primary was at 19.7 percent and was the lowest in the state's history. The state was ranked last in the U.S. in voter general election turnout in 2014.[125][126]

* Primary election voter turnout:

* 2016: 40%
* 2014: 19.7%
* 2012: 27%
* 2010: 24%
* 2008: 36%

* General election voter turnout:

* 2014: 37.3%
* 2012: 55%
* 2010: 44%
* 2008: 50%

|

### Competitiveness[edit]

* In the past two presidential elections, the Republican candidate had comfortably won the state. U.S. Senator John McCain won the state in 2008 by 13 points, while former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney won the state by 26 points in 2012.

Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria

Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [18]
Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [19]

* By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.

* Senate districts: 2 out of 17 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.

* No districts were highly competitive. Two districts were considered mildly competitive and were both held by Democrats.[20]

## Races we watched[edit]

State Senate District 8 \- General election

A Democrat challenged a Republican incumbent in a competitive district.

Incumbent state Sen. Chris Walters (R) ran for re-election. Walters was defeated by Glenn Jeffries (D) in the November election.

In 2012, Chris Walters (R) defeated the Democratic incumbent by about six points. This relatively small margin of victory qualified the district as a competitive district in 2016.

State Senate District 9 \- General election

Democrats sought control of a district they had won in 2012.

In the 2014 election, Daniel Hall, a Democrat at the time, won by a margin of seven points. Immediately after the election, Hall changed to the Republican Party, and later resigned. Republican Sue Cline was appointed to take his place, and defeated Mike Goode in the general election.

State Senate District 11 \- General election

A Democratic state delegate and a Mountain Party candidate challenged the Republican incumbent.

Incumbent state Sen. Greg Boso (R), who was appointed by Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) in January 2015, ran for a full term. Boso defeated state Rep. Denise Campbell (D) and Bruce Breuninger (Mountain Party) in the November election. Campbell was first elected to the state House of Delegates in 2010.

State Senate District 14 \- General election

A Republican state delegate and a Libertarian candidate challenged the current Democratic incumbent.

Incumbent state Sen. Robert Williams (D) ran for re-election. Williams and Matthew Persinger (Libertarian) were defeated by state Rep. Randy E. Smith (R) and in the November election. Williams was first elected to the state Senate in 2008; Smith was first elected to the state House in 2012.

Williams won in 2008 by 1,107 votes out of 43,303 votes cast—a 51 to 48 margin. He was unchallenged in 2012.

State Senate District 16 \- General election

A Democrat fought to keep an open seat in a competitive district most recently held by a Democrat.

Senator Herb Snyder (D), who won his last general election by about 8 points, declined to seek re-election. Challengers Stephen Skinner (D) and Patricia Rucker (R) faced off to claim the open seat. The relatively small margin of victory in 2012 qualified the district as a 2016 competitive district. Rucker defeated Skinner in the November election.

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »
This district was included in the Republican State Leadership Committee's list of "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Read more »

# Wisconsin[edit]

Wisconsin Senate

2016 Election

Seats up: 16 out of 33
Margin of control: 5
% Margin of control: 15%
Pre-election control:
Presidential election
2012: President Obama
2008: President Obama

Republicans expanded their majorities in the state Senate, picking up an additional seat.

Heading into the general election, Wisconsin was one of 23 Republican state government trifectas.

Democrats needed a net pick up of three seats out of the 16 seats up for election. Only four seats—Districts 14, 18, 30, and 32—had competitive elections in prior years. Since only two of those seats were held by Republicans, Democrats needed to find another seat to pick up.

Republicans had held the Wisconsin State Senate since 2013. Democrats lost control of the chamber in 2010, but briefly retook control in 2012 after the successful recall of Van Wanggaard (R) on June 5, 2012. Democrats held the chamber until the 2012 general election when Republicans regained the majority. Since 1992, Republicans have controlled the state Senate for 14 years, and Democrats held it for the other 11 years.

### Senate[edit]

Main article: 2016 Senate elections

Republicans controlled the Wisconsin State Senate by five seats, which amounted to 15 percent of the chamber.[27] In 2014, Republicans increased their lead in the state Senate, going from 17 to 19 seats. Democrats sustained a net loss of one seat, dropping from 15 to 14 seats.

Partisan balance of the Wisconsin state Senate

Election year  | Seats  | Seats up  | Margin of control  | % Margin of control  | Pre-election control  | Post-election control
2012 | 33 | 16 | 3 seats | 9% |  Democratic |  Republican
2014 | 33 | 17 | 3 seats | 9% |  Republican |  Republican
2016 | 33 | 16 | 5 seats | 15% |  Republican |  Republican

## Battleground context[edit]

The Wisconsin State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target for 2016.[7] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) has identified the Wisconsin State Senate as an offensive target. The DLCC set the goal of raising $20 million for 2016 state legislative races. [127][128]

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Assembly District 94 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch."[11]

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named Senate District 14, Senate District 18, Assembly District 51, and Assembly District 85 in their "2016 Essential Races."[12][13][54]

Out of the state Senate's 33 seats, Democrats controlled 14 seats and Republicans controlled 19 seats. Democrats needed a net pick up of three seats out of the 16 seats up for election to flip the chamber. Only four seats—Districts 14, 18, 30, and 32—held competitive elections in prior years. Since only two of those seats were held by Republicans, Democrats needed to find another seat to pickup.[129] Only eight seats had general election competition on November 8, 2016.

The presidential election likely played a role in down-ballot races in Wisconsin. The Democratic nominee had won Wisconsin the past seven presidential elections.[130] In presidential election years, Democrats tend come out and vote more than in regular election years. Democrats hoped this trend would continue and that it would help them to regain control of the chamber. There was a shift in those trends, with Donald Trump (R) winning the state, likely bolstering Republicans in state legislative races.

Since Gov. Scott Walker (R) wasn't up for re-election until 2018, Republicans maintaining control of both state chambers in 2016 means they would likely be able to pass every piece of legislation agreed upon for the next two years without interference from Democrats.[131]

### Competitiveness[edit]

* In the past two presidential elections, President Obama has comfortably won Wisconsin. He won the state in 2008 by 13 points and in 2012 by 7 points.

Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria

Highly competitive district - MOV: <5% [18]
Mildly competitive district - MOV: 5-10% [19]

* By using the competitiveness criteria and comparing it to the 2012 presidential election results by legislative districts, we can see which districts were competitive.

* Senate districts: Twelve out of 33 legislative districts were competitive in the 2012 presidential election.

* Seven of those districts were highly competitive and were all held by Republicans except two. Five districts were considered mildly competitive.[20]

## Races we watched[edit]

Senate District 14 \- General election

A moderate Democratic candidate challenged a moderate Republican incumbent in the battle for the Senate.

Waupaca Mayor Brian Smith (D), who describes himself as a moderate independent, challenged Sen. Luther Olsen (R) in Senate District 14.[45][132] Olsen, who had held the seat since 2004 and is considered a moderate, survived a recall attempt in 2011.[133][132] Olsen and Smith both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[45]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

Senate District 18 \- General election

An open race in a Republican-leaning district attracted a competitive field.

Sen. Rick Gudex (R) died on October 12, 2016. He did not seek re-election in 2016. The Republican-leaning district was briefly in Democratic hands following a 2011 recall election; Democratic candidate Jessica King defeated then-Sen. Randy Hopper (R) in the recall before losing to Gudex in 2012.[133][47] Mark Harris defeated John Lemberger for the opportunity to reclaim the seat for the Democratic Party in November.[45] Harris faced off against Dan Feyen (R) in the November general election.[45]

Senate minority leader Jennifer Shilling (D) pointed out the importance of winning Senate District 18 for Democrats to have any chance in flipping the chamber or cutting into the Republican majority.[134] She said, "In order for us to build a Democratic majority in both the elections of 2016 and 2018 and, ultimately, 2020 when redistricting happens, we need to win that seat."[134]

This district was included in the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's list of "2016 Essential Races." Read more »

Senate District 30 \- General election

A Republican candidate challenged a vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the battle for the Senate.

Republican candidate Eric Wimberger challenged Rep. Dave Hansen (D) in Senate District 30.[45] Hansen was targeted for recall in 2011, but defeated his Republican challenger, David VanderLeest, by close to 11,000 votes.[135] Hansen and Wimberger both ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[45]

Senate District 32 \- General election

A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent to a rematch.

Senate Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling (D) defeated former Sen. Dan Kapanke (R) in a 2011 recall election.[133] Kapanke ran to reclaim the Senate District 32 seat in 2016.[45] Both candidates faced primary opponents en route to a general election rematch. Shilling fielded a challenge from Jared Landry in the Democratic primary, and Kapanke faced John Sarnowski in the GOP contest.[45] Independent candidate Chip DeNure also filed to run in the November general election.[136]

## Chambers targeted by the DLCC and RSLC[edit]

From 2008 to 2016, Democrats lost control of 958 state legislative seats.[137] Most of those seats were lost in the GOP wave election in 2010. Majorities held by Republicans during the redistricting process allowed the party to secure Republican-controlled seats in some states.[138]

### Democratic targets[edit]

To combat the hemorrhaging of legislative seats, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee launched Ad­vant­age 2020 in August 2014, which was a super PAC aimed at flipping key state legislatures with the end goal of controlling the redistricting process in 2021.[4] The PAC was set up to spend a minimum of $70 million over the next four election cycles on state-level races.[4] The group planned to focus its efforts in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. All six states were controlled by Republicans on the state-level, but favored President Obama (D) over Mitt Romney (R) in 2012.[139] Advantage 2020 was terminated in June 2016.

DLCC Target Chambers in 2016

Chamber  | Seats  | Seats held by Democrats  | Seats held by Republicans
Florida State Senate | 40 | 14 | 26
Florida House of Representatives | 120 | 39 | 81
Michigan House of Representatives | 110 | 47 | 63
Ohio State Senate | 33 | 10 | 23
Ohio House of Representatives | 99 | 34 | 65
Pennsylvania State Senate | 50 | 19 | 31
Pennsylvania House of Representatives | 203 | 84 | 119
Wisconsin State Senate | 33 | 14 | 19
Wisconsin State Assembly | 99 | 36 | 63

#### DLCC's 2016 Essential Races[edit]

As of October 24, 2016, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) had released all three rounds of their "Essential Races." The lists highlight 51 Democratic candidates and one unaffliated candidate in 52 races that Democrats are targeting. Out of the 52 races listed, 23 are state Senate races and the other 29 are state House races. Wisconsin and New Mexico had the most races on the list with four each.[12][13][54]

* Daniel Hernandez Jr. \- Arizona House District 2
* Representative Eric Meyer \- Arizona Senate District 28
* Jeff Bridges – Colorado House District 3
* Dafna Michaelson Jenet – Colorado House District 30
* Rachel Zenzinger – Colorado Senate District 19
* Beth Tuura \- Florida House District 47
* Jennifer Webb \- Florida House District 69
* Representative Jose Javier Rodriguez \- Florida Senate District 37
* Representative Scott Holcomb – Georgia House District 81
* Representative Pedro "Pete" Marin – Georgia House District 96
* Pat Ritter – Iowa House District 55
* Jan Heikes – Iowa Senate District 28
* Senator Chris Brase – Iowa Senate District 46
* McKenzie Cantrell – Kentucky House District 38
* Alan "Al" Gentry – Kentucky House District 46
* Representative Jeff Taylor – Kentucky House District 8
* Theresa Abed – Michigan House District 71
* Collene Lamonte – Michigan House District 91
* Bryan Mielke – Michigan House District 99
* Thomas Trehus \- Minnesota House District 28B
* Kip Fontaine \- Minnesota Senate District 1
* Matt Little \- Minnesota Senate District 58
* Senator Scott Sifton – Missouri Senate District 1
* Representative Stephen Webber – Missouri Senate District 19
* Garrett Lankford – Montana House District 25
* Representative Zac Perry – Montana House District 3
* Representative Margie MacDonald – Montana Senate District 26
* Devon Reese – Nevada Senate District 15
* Peggy Gilmour – New Hampshire Senate District 12
* Alexis Simpson – New Hampshire Senate District 23
* Ane Romero – New Mexico House District 15
* Natalie Figueroa – New Mexico House District 30
* GloJean Todacheene – New Mexico House District 4
* Michael Sanchez – New Mexico Senate District 29
* Ryan Cronin – New York Senate District 6
* Adam Haber – New York Senate District 7
* Jane Campbell (Unaffiliated) – North Carolina House District 98
* Karla Rose Hanson – North Dakota House District 44
* Tommy Greene – Ohio House District 16
* Ginny Favede – Ohio House District 95
* Emily Hagan – Ohio Senate District 24
* Janelle Bynum – Oregon House District 51
* Tonia Moro – Oregon Senate District 3
* Red Dawn Foster – South Dakota House District 27
* Mike Pellicciotti – Washington House District 30-Position 1
* Marisa Peloquin – Washington Senate District 28
* Stephen Skinner – West Virginia Senate District 16
* Brian Smith – Wisconsin Senate District 14
* Mark Harris – Wisconsin Senate District 18
* Jeff Wright – Wisconsin Assembly District 51
* Mandy Wright – Wisconsin Assembly District 85
* Narina Nunez – Wyoming Senate District 10

### Republican targets[edit]

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) announced on July 30, 2015, that it planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle. The RSLC's and RLCC's four-part plan focused on identifying new Republican majorities, ending Democratic supermajorities, defending existing Republican majorities, and defending the five new blue-state majorities.[7]

The RSLC and RLCC planned on targeting six chambers that were the most likely to become new Republican majorities. The targeted chambers were the Colorado House, Kentucky House, Washington House, Iowa Senate, Minnesota Senate, and New Mexico Senate. Each of the six states listed have split legislatures, one with a Democrat majority and one with a Republican majority.[7] The groups are also focused on "ending Democrat supermajorities in states with new Republican governors and lieutenant governors."[7] The targets will be the Illinois state House and both chambers of the Massachusetts General Court, Vermont General Assembly, and Oregon Legislative Assembly.[7] The groups believed that Oregon could be open for Republican gains after the state's Democrat governor was forced to resign after an ethics scandal.[7] In addition, the groups were actively defending existing Republican majorities. Following the 2014 election, Republicans gained control of five state Senate chambers and will work to retain those chambers in 2016. The Senate chambers to be defended were the West Virginia Senate, Colorado Senate, Nevada Senate, New York Senate, and Washington Senate.[7] Lastly, the RSLC and RLCC will defend the new Republican majorities from 2014.[7] The five state chambers to be defended were the New Hampshire House, Minnesota House, New Mexico House, Maine Senate, and Nevada State Assembly.[7]

RSLC Target Chambers in 2016

Chamber  | Seats  | Seats held by Democrats  | Seats held by Republicans
Colorado State Senate | 35 | 17 | 18
Colorado House of Representatives | 65 | 34 | 31
Illinois House of Representatives | 118 | 71 | 47
Iowa State Senate | 50 | 26 | 23
Kentucky House of Representatives | 100 | 53 | 47
Maine State Senate | 35 | 15 | 20
Massachusetts State Senate | 40 | 34 | 6
Massachusetts House of Representatives | 160 | 126 | 34
Minnesota State Senate | 67 | 39 | 28
Minnesota House of Representatives | 134 | 61 | 73
Nevada State Senate | 21 | 10 | 11
Nevada State Assembly | 42 | 17 | 24
New Hampshire House of Representatives | 400 | 162 | 237
New Mexico State Senate | 42 | 24 | 18
New Mexico House of Representatives | 70 | 33 | 37
New York State Senate | 63 | 32 | 31[140]
Oregon State Senate | 30 | 18 | 12
Oregon House of Representatives | 60 | 35 | 25
Vermont State Senate | 30 | 19 | 9
Vermont House of Representatives | 150 | 85 | 53
Washington State Senate | 49 | 24 | 25
Washington House of Representatives | 98 | 50 | 48
West Virginia State Senate | 34 | 16 | 18

#### RSLC's 16 in '16: Races to Watch[edit]

As of October 24, 2016, the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) had released the first three rounds of their "16 in '16: Races to Watch." These lists each highlight 16 Republican candidates in 16 races that the GOP targeted on November 8, 2016. Out of the 48 races listed, forty-three were state legislative races—16 state Senate and 27 state House. The other five races on the list were state executive races. New Mexico had the most races on the list with six.[9][11]

* Marilyn Stewart – Alaska House District 21
* Maria Syms – Arizona House District 28
* Steve Montenegro – Arizona Senate District 13
* Shelley Kais – Arizona Senate District 2
* Ling-Ling Chang – California Senate District 29
* Dante Acosta – California Assembly District 38
* Katy Brown – Colorado House District 3
* Jessica Sandgren – Colorado House District 31
* Nancy Doty – Colorado Senate District 26
* Emanuela Palmares – Connecticut House District 110
* George Logan – Connecticut Senate District 17
* La Mar Gunn – Delaware Lieutenant Governor
* Rosa Palomino – Florida House District 112
* John Couriel – Florida House District 114
* Jaci Agustin – Hawaii House District 34
* Tony McCombie – Illinois House District 71
* Suzanne Crouch – Indiana Lieutenant Governor
* Bonnie Sadler – Iowa Senate District 30
* Rene Gadelha – Iowa Senate District 34
* Joni Hogancamp – Kentucky House District 3
* Melinda Hill – Kentucky House District 20
* Wendy Fletcher – Kentucky House District 99
* Joyce Maker – Maine Senate District 6
* Shane Hernandez – Michigan House District 83
* Sue Allor – Michigan House District 106
* Sharna Wahlgren – Minnesota Senate District 53
* Tracy Nelson – Minnesota House 42B
* Lesley Robinson – Montana Lieutenant Governor
* Jill Tolles – Nevada Assembly District 25
* Christina Hall – New Mexico House District 24
* Vicki Chavez – New Mexico House District 32
* Sharon Stover – New Mexico House District 43
* Nora Espinoza –New Mexico Secretary of State
* Greg Baca – New Mexico Senate District 29
* Diego Espinoza –New Mexico Senate District 9
* Ryan Martinez – Oklahoma House District 39
* Patti Milne – Oregon House District 22
* Lori Chavez-DeRemer – Oregon House District 51
* Laura Morett – Oregon House District 20
* Tamie Tlustos-Arnold – Oregon Senate District 25
* John Lujan – Texas House District 118
* Randy Brock – Vermont Lieutenant Governor
* Janice Huxford – Washington House District 44-Position 1
* Ramiro Valderrama – Washington House District 45-Position 1
* Lynda Wilson – Washington Senate District 17
* Nancy Reagan Foster – West Virginia House District 38
* Patricia Rucker – West Virginia Senate District 16
* Julian Bradley – Wisconsin Assembly District 94

## See also[edit]

* State legislative elections, 2016
* State executive official elections, 2016
* 2016 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
* 2014 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index
* State government trifectas

## Footnotes[edit]

1. ↑ National Democratic Institute, "Howard Dean," accessed November 1, 2016
2. ↑ Democracy for America, "DFA Launches the Purple to Blue Project," accessed November 1, 2016
3. ↑ Democracy for America, "Democracy for America endorses eight in key Colorado state House, Senate Races," accessed November 1, 2016
4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Launches Advantage 2020 as the Key to Success in the Next Round of Redistricting -- $70 Million-Plus Effort Starting with the 2014 Cycle," accessed October 27, 2015(Archived)
5. ↑ FEC, "FEC Form 3X, Advantage 2020 (Termination)," accessed July 8, 2016
6. ↑ FEC, "FEC Form 3X, Advantage 2020 (Mid-Year 2015)," accessed March 7, 2016
7. ↑ 7.00 7.01 7.02 7.03 7.04 7.05 7.06 7.07 7.08 7.09 7.10 7.11 7.12 7.13 7.14 7.15 7.16 7.17 7.18 7.19 7.20 7.21 Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces State Legislative Election Targets for 2015-2016," accessed October 27, 2015
8. ↑ The New Mexico State Senate did not hold elections in 2010.
9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 5, 2016
10. ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Releases Second Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'” accessed October 5, 2016
11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Debuts Third Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 24, 2016
12. ↑ 12.00 12.01 12.02 12.03 12.04 12.05 12.06 12.07 12.08 12.09 12.10 Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
13. ↑ 13.00 13.01 13.02 13.03 13.04 13.05 13.06 13.07 13.08 13.09 13.10 Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016 Cite error: Invalid `<ref>` tag; name "dlccraces1" defined multiple times with different content
14. ↑ Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: Can Bernie Sanders help these candidates win their own primaries?" January 20, 2016
15. ↑ The Denver Post, "Colorado voters may face record level of Colorado school funding measures in November," accessed August 19, 2016
16. ↑ Marijuana Policy Project, "Colorado," accessed August 19, 2016
17. ↑ The Denver Post, "Colorado Supreme Court rules state law trumps local bans on fracking," accessed August 19, 2016
18. ↑ 18.00 18.01 18.02 18.03 18.04 18.05 18.06 18.07 18.08 18.09 18.10 18.11 Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive.
19. ↑ 19.00 19.01 19.02 19.03 19.04 19.05 19.06 19.07 19.08 19.09 19.10 19.11 Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
20. ↑ 20.00 20.01 20.02 20.03 20.04 20.05 20.06 20.07 20.08 20.09 20.10 20.11 20.12 20.13 20.14 20.15 20.16 Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections Statewide Results by LD (public)," accessed January 21, 2016
21. ↑ 21.0 21.1 21.2 Colorado Independent, "Is Adams County the new bellwether for Colorado politics?" March 30, 2016
22. ↑ Ballotpedia, "Ballotpedia:Who Runs the States, Iowa," accessed January 21, 2016
23. ↑ 23.00 23.01 23.02 23.03 23.04 23.05 23.06 23.07 23.08 23.09 23.10 23.11 23.12 23.13 23.14 23.15 23.16 23.17 Des Moines Register, "GOP Eyes Taking Control of Iowa Senate," March 21, 2016
24. ↑ Iowa Secretary of State, "State Senator District 32 Results," accessed May 17, 2016
25. ↑ Iowa Secretary of State, "State Senator District 46 Results," accessed May 17, 2016
26. ↑ Courier-Journal, "Rep. Jim Gooch latest Democrat to switch to GOP," accessed February 11, 2016
27. ↑ 27.00 27.01 27.02 27.03 27.04 27.05 27.06 27.07 27.08 27.09 27.10 Ballotpedia, "SLP Seats up in 2016," accessed November 17, 2015
28. ↑ Lexington Herald Leader, "Republicans field candidates in 91 of 100 House elections," accessed February 18, 2016
29. ↑ WFPL News, "State Rep. Butler of Louisville Switches To Republican Party," accessed November 19, 2015
30. ↑ Courier-Journal, "Ky Democrats lag far behind GOP in money," accessed August 4, 2016
31. ↑ mycn2.com, "GOP holds financial advantages in special House elections less than a month before voters hit the polls," accessed February 18, 2016
32. ↑ 32.0 32.1 Republican State Leadership Committee, "National GOP group pours money into special House races," accessed February 18, 2016
33. ↑ Cite error: Invalid `<ref>` tag; no text was provided for refs named `CN`
34. ↑ Ballotpedia, "Maine State Senate elections, 2014," accessed November 19, 2015
35. ↑ Ballotpedia, "Ballotpedia:Who Runs the States, Maine," accessed February 11, 2016
36. ↑ 36.0 36.1 36.2 36.3 36.4 Portland Press Herald, "Democrats have big fundraising lead in Maine legislative races," accessed August 22, 2016
37. ↑ Bangor Daily News, "More than $500,000 pours into Maine’s 2016 legislative races," October 15, 2015
38. ↑ 38.0 38.1 38.2 Follow the Money, "Election Overview: Maine 2014 elections," accessed August 24, 2016
39. ↑ 39.0 39.1 39.2 39.3 39.4 39.5 39.6 Daily Kos, "Analysis of 2016 State Senate Elections in Maine," March 25, 2016
40. ↑ Lincoln County News, "Bowdoin Businessman Challenges Republican Senator in Primary," March 30, 2016
41. ↑ New York Times, "Maine 64th District," accessed November 12, 2016
42. ↑ Maine Secretary of State, "Withdraw and Replace," accessed November 12, 2016
43. ↑ Ballotpedia, "Ballotpedia:Who Runs the States, Michigan," accessed February 11, 2016
44. ↑ Ballotpedia, "Michigan House of Representatives elections, 2014," accessed November 19, 2015
45. ↑ 45.00 45.01 45.02 45.03 45.04 45.05 45.06 45.07 45.08 45.09 45.10 45.11 45.12 45.13 45.14 45.15 45.16 45.17 45.18 45.19 45.20 45.21 45.22 45.23 45.24 45.25 45.26 45.27 45.28 45.29 45.30 45.31 45.32 45.33 45.34 45.35 45.36 45.37 45.38 45.39 45.40 45.41 45.42 Cite error: Invalid `<ref>` tag; no text was provided for refs named `candidatelist`
46. ↑ Michigan Secretary of State, "2010 Michigan Election Results," February 22, 2016
47. ↑ 47.0 47.1 47.2 47.3 Michigan Secretary of State, "2012 Michigan Election Results," February 22, 2016
48. ↑ MLive, "State Rep. Deb Shaughnessy, R-Charlotte, Loses Seat to Challenger Theresa Abed," November 7, 2012
49. ↑ 49.0 49.1 49.2 49.3 49.4 Michigan Secretary of State, "2014 Michigan Election Results," February 22, 2016
50. ↑ 50.0 50.1 Cite error: Invalid `<ref>` tag; no text was provided for refs named `libertarianparty`
51. ↑ Cite error: Invalid `<ref>` tag; no text was provided for refs named `2010results`
52. ↑ Ballotpedia, "Ballotpedia:Who Runs the States, Minnesota," accessed January 21, 2016
53. ↑ Ballotpedia, "Minnesota House of Representatives elections, 2014," accessed November 19, 2015
54. ↑ 54.0 54.1 54.2 54.3 54.4 DLCC, "DLCC Releases Final, Expanded Installment of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 24, 2016
55. ↑ 55.0 55.1 MinnPost, "Why 2016 will be unlike any Minnesota election in over a decade," July 22, 2015
56. ↑ 56.0 56.1 56.2 Star Tribune, "Minnesota House battle will determine future of state government," August 12, 2016
57. ↑ CQ Roll Call, "52 Statehouse Reporters Review the Top 5 Public Policy Issues in Each State," May 3, 2016
58. ↑ 58.0 58.1 The Hill, "Minnesota Democrats target rural vote for 2016 state legislative fights," December 11, 2015
59. ↑ Daily Kos, "Democrats want to retake the Minnesota state House, but the GOP just scored a key pickup," accessed February 12, 2016
60. ↑ Cite error: Invalid `<ref>` tag; no text was provided for refs named `mprkoenen`
61. ↑ Cite error: Invalid `<ref>` tag; no text was provided for refs named `2012senateresults`
62. ↑ Twin Cities Daily Planet, "Rep. Lyle Koenen of Clara City: Complicated Road to the Minnesota Senate," April 23, 2012
63. ↑ 63.0 63.1 63.2 63.3 63.4 Post-Bulletin, "Top 5 legislative races in SE Minn," August 30, 2016
64. ↑ MPR News, "State Sen. Bonoff Challenges Paulsen for Congress," April 16, 2016
65. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Statement of Candidacy," May 3, 2016
66. ↑ Minneapolis Star Tribune, "Sen. Dave Thompson Not Running for Re-Election," January 5, 2016
67. ↑ 67.0 67.1 Minnesota Secretary of State, "Results for All State Representative Races," December 7, 2012
68. ↑ 68.0 68.1 68.2 68.3 Cite error: Invalid `<ref>` tag; no text was provided for refs named `2014houseresults`
69. ↑ Post-Bulletin, "5 takeaways from legislative campaign reports," July 27, 2016
70. ↑ Ballotpedia, "Ballotpedia:Who Runs the States, Nevada," accessed January 21, 2016
71. ↑ Ballotpedia, "Nevada State Senate elections, 2016," accessed November 19, 2015
72. ↑ Nevada Secretary of State, "Campaign finance report for Senate Democrats," accessed September 12, 2016
73. ↑ Nevada Secretary of State, "Campaign finance report for Senate Republicans," accessed September 12, 2016
74. ↑ Las Vegas Sun, "Fight for majority in Nevada Legislature coming into focus," accessed September 12, 2016
75. ↑ Governing, "The 8 States to Watch in 2016," accessed January 16, 2016
76. ↑ Nevada Appeal, "Democrats rev up fundraising in fight to control Nevada Legislature," January 21, 2016
77. ↑ 77.0 77.1 Las Vegas Review Journal, "Democrats could retake Nevada Senate, Assembly this year," accessed September 12, 2016
78. ↑ Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: Can Democrats retake the Nevada Senate? These three seats will decide it all," accessed February 12, 2016
79. ↑ 79.0 79.1 79.2 79.3 KTNV, "Ten important Nevada Primary races to watch in 2016," March 23, 2016
80. ↑ Las Vegas Sun, "Nevada GOP Senate hopeful Gansert attracts primary challenge," October 15, 2015
81. ↑ Ralston Reports, "Gansert's silence on tax increase is bizarre, ridiculous and unsustainable," September 17, 2015
82. ↑ Las Vegas Sun, "Democrats back candidate to challenge GOP Sen. Scott Hammond," accessed September 12, 2016
83. ↑ % Margin of control: The number of seats that the majority party controls the chamber by, divided by the total number of seats in the chamber. Republicans control the state Senate by 4 seats or 16.7 percent of the chamber.
84. ↑ % Margin of control: The number of seats that the majority party controls the chamber by, divided by the total number of seats in the chamber. Republicans control the state House by 75 seats or 19 percent of the chamber.
85. ↑ 85.0 85.1 85.2 85.3 85.4 85.5 85.6 New Hampshire Union Leader, "state Senate: GOP fortress, or could it be overtaken?" accessed September 8, 2016
86. ↑ 86.0 86.1 86.2 SentinelSource.com, "Vacancies, contested races leave NH Senate makeup in malleable state," accessed September 8, 2016
87. ↑ 87.00 87.01 87.02 87.03 87.04 87.05 87.06 87.07 87.08 87.09 87.10 87.11 87.12 87.13 87.14 87.15 87.16 87.17 87.18 New York Times, "New Hampshire Results," accessed November 14, 2016 Cite error: Invalid `<ref>` tag; name "NYT" defined multiple times with different content Cite error: Invalid `<ref>` tag; name "NYT" defined multiple times with different content
88. ↑ 88.0 88.1 88.2 88.3 88.4 88.5 Cite error: Invalid `<ref>` tag; no text was provided for refs named `miscellany`
89. ↑ Valley News, "State Sen. Little Approved as Banking Commissioner," April 7, 2016
90. ↑ New Mexico Legislature, "Political Composition — Legislative Sessions," accessed January 21, 2016
91. ↑ Ballotpedia, "New Mexico House of Representatives elections, 2016," accessed November 19, 2015
92. ↑ 92.0 92.1 92.2 Roswell Daily Record, "GOP reaching to control Statehouse," accessed September 13, 2016
93. ↑ NM Political Report, "NM GOP chair highlights four Senate targets," accessed September 13, 2016
94. ↑ The Atlantic, "Will Donald Trump Hand State Capitols to Democrats?" accessed September 13, 2016
95. ↑ 95.0 95.1 95.2 95.3 The NM Political Report, "NM GOP chair highlights four Senate targets," accessed March 29, 2016
96. ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch”," accessed October 5, 2016
97. ↑ Cite error: Invalid `<ref>` tag; no text was provided for refs named `GOPchai`
98. ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch”," accessed October 5, 2016
99. ↑ KRQE News 15, "Martinez announces pick for New Mexico Senate vacancy," accessed April 7, 2015
100. ↑ Miami Herald, "Martinez picks Republican for New Mexico Senate vacancy," accessed April 7, 2015(Archived)
101. ↑ 101.0 101.1 Albuquerque Journal, "House District 24 race has two new GOP faces," May 10, 2016
102. ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch”," accessed October 5, 2016
103. ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Releases Second Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch”," accessed October 5, 2016
104. ↑ NY Times, "In Rebuke to Democrats, Voters Return Control of New York Senate to G.O.P.," accessed January 21, 2016
105. ↑ Ballotpedia, "New York State Senate elections, 2016," accessed November 19, 2015
106. ↑ NY Times, "In Rebuke to Democrats, Voters Return Control of New York Senate to G.O.P.," accessed January 21, 2016
107. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "How a Trump debacle could affect the House and state legislatures," accessed August 24, 2016
108. ↑ Politico, "Democrats' path to possible Senate control begins on Long Island," accessed September 13, 2016
109. ↑ Time Warner Cable News, "New York Democrats See Opportunity With State Republicans' Embrace of Trump," accessed September 13, 2016
110. ↑ 110.0 110.1 NY Daily News, "LOVETT: Donald Trump is Democrats’ new weapon in battle for control of New York Senate," accessed September 13, 2016
111. ↑ Queens Chronicle, "Jack Martins to Run for Rep. Israel's Seat," January 8, 2016
112. ↑ 112.0 112.1 112.2 112.3 112.4 112.5 112.6 112.7 Time Warner Cable News, "Where the Senate Dems Believe They Can Compete," June 6, 2016
113. ↑ 113.0 113.1 113.2 113.3 113.4 Times Union, "Senate Campaign Focuses Turn to Long Island, Hudson Valley, Buffalo," July 18, 2016
114. ↑ 114.0 114.1 114.2 114.3 114.4 114.5 Seattle Times, "Handful of races could flip political control of Legislature," accessed September 13, 2016
115. ↑ Cite error: Invalid `<ref>` tag; no text was provided for refs named `olympian`
116. ↑ 116.0 116.1 116.2 116.3 116.4 116.5 The Seattle Times, "Handful of Races Could Flip Political Control of the Legislature," May 29, 2016
117. ↑ 117.0 117.1 Cite error: Invalid `<ref>` tag; no text was provided for refs named `shiftwa`
118. ↑ The Herald, "Lovick Picked for Legislative Seat, But Appointment Process Draws Fire," June 9, 2016
119. ↑ Washington Secretary of State, "Legislative District 17 - State Senator," November 27, 2012
120. ↑ West Virginia Encyclopedia, "Legislature," accessed January 20, 2016
121. ↑ 121.0 121.1 121.2 Daily Kos, "WV state Senate - The Race for 18," accessed September 14, 2016
122. ↑ The Huffington Post, "West Virginia Republicans Just Delivered A Huge Blow To Unions," accessed September 14, 2016
123. ↑ West Virginia Secretary of State, "Voter Registration Totals," accessed September 14, 2016
124. ↑ The Nation, "﻿The Myth of the ‘War On Coal’," accessed September 14, 2016
125. ↑ West Virginia Public Broadcasting, "Top 10 Races to Watch in West Virginia’s Primary Election," accessed September 14, 2016
126. ↑ West Virginia Public Broadcasting, "10 Takeaways from the W.Va. Primary Election," accessed September 14, 2016
127. ↑ DLCC, "DLCC Launches Advantage 2020 as the Key to Success in the Next Round of Redistricting -- $70 Million-Plus Effort Starting with the 2014 Cycle," accessed March 30, 2016
128. ↑ AP - The Big Story, "Big spending expected for state legislative races in 2016," November 7, 2015
129. ↑ Wisconsin Realtors Association, "Will the GOP-controlled state Senate be Competitive in 2016?" accessed September 15, 2016
130. ↑ wsau.com, "Wisconsin's political scene takes shape for fall," accessed September 15, 2016
131. ↑ Daily Citizen, "A handful of state legislative races are competitive," accessed October 12, 2016
132. ↑ 132.0 132.1 The Capital Times, "Five Wisconsin Senate Races to Watch in 2016," June 7, 2016
133. ↑ 133.0 133.1 133.2 Cite error: Invalid `<ref>` tag; no text was provided for refs named `2011results`
134. ↑ 134.0 134.1 The Cap Times, "State Senate Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling: Four seats key to cutting GOP majority," accessed August 31, 2016
135. ↑ Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, "Canvass Results for 2011 Recall Election State Senate 30 - 7/19/2011," accessed August 3, 2016
136. ↑ WXOW, "La Crosse Resident Chip DeNure Announces Campaign for State Senate," April 28, 2016
137. ↑ The Hill, "Democratic Victory Task Force," accessed October 27, 2015
138. ↑ Ballotpedia, "State legislative elections, 2014," accessed October 27, 2015
139. ↑ National Journal, "Can Democrats Ever Win Back State Legislatures?" accessed October 27, 2015
140. ↑ Republicans maintain control of the state Senate due to a power-sharing agreement with the Independent Democratic Caucus.

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