United States Senate elections, 2018

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<- 2016

2020 →

2018 U.S. Senate Elections

* * *

Election Date
November 6, 2018

* * *

U.S. Senate Elections by State
Battlegrounds • Battleground primaries GOP primaries • Democratic primaries
Arizona • California • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Hawaii • Indiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Dakota • Ohio • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

* * *

U.S. House Elections by State
Battlegrounds • Battleground primaries
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

## Contents

* 1 2018 election analysis and context
* 2 Election results
* 3 Margin of victory
* 4 Pre-election analysis
* 4.1 Partisan breakdown
* 4.2 Battlegrounds
* 4.3 List of all U.S. Senate elections in 2018
* 4.4 Polls
* 5 Arizona
* 6 California
* 6.1 General election
* 6.2 Top-two primary
* 7 Florida
* 8 Indiana
* 9 Minnesota
* 10 Mississippi
* 11 Missouri
* 12 Montana
* 13 Nevada
* 14 New Jersey
* 15 New Mexico
* 16 North Dakota
* 17 Ohio
* 18 Tennessee
* 19 Texas
* 20 West Virginia
* 20.1 Race ratings
* 20.2 Special elections to the 115th U.S. Congress
* 20.2.1 Incumbents not running for re-election
* 20.2.1.1 U.S. senators not running for re-election, 2018
* 20.2.1.2 Historical comparison of incumbents not running for re-election
* 20.2.2 Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report
* 20.2.3 Outcome of recent presidential and gubernatorial elections
* 20.2.4 Key endorsements
* 20.2.4.1 Barack Obama
* 20.2.4.2 Donald Trump
* 20.3 Wave election analysis
* 20.3.1 Analysis of federal elections, 2018
* 20.3.2 Election issues
* 20.4 See also
* 20.5 Footnotes

Thirty-five U.S. Senate seats, including two in special elections, were up for election on November 6, 2018. Heading into the election, the Republican Party held a 51-seat majority in the chamber. Democrats held 47 seats, and the remaining two seats were held by independents who caucus with the Democratic Party.

Five incumbents—four Democrats and one Republican—lost their seats in 2018. Following the 2018 midterm elections, the Republican Party expanded their majority by two and controlled 53 seats in the chamber, Democrats controlled 45 seats, and independents in Maine and Vermont who caucus with the Democrats held two seats.

On this page, Ballotpedia compiled the following resources about the U.S. Senate elections:

* Election results in all 35 U.S. Senate races;
* Analysis of partisan control of the U.S. Senate following the election;
* Analysis of whether 2018 was a wave election;
* The partisan breakdown of the U.S. Senate before and after the election;
* A list of all U.S. Senate races and battlegrounds in 2018;
* Public opinion polls for the battleground races;
* Race ratings from election forecasters;
* Information about incumbents not running for re-election;
* Endorsements from national figures like Presidents Barack Obama (D) and Donald Trump (R); and
* Analaysis of federal elections.

This page focuses mainly on general elections. For more in-depth information on the Democratic and Republican primaries by state, see the following pages.

United States Senate Democratic Party primaries, 2018
United States Senate Republican Party primaries, 2018

## 2018 election analysis and context[edit]

Democrats were defending 26 of the 35 seats up for re-election, making it difficult for them to add the two seats necessary to wrest majority control from the Republicans. This situation occurs occasionally. To read more about how a disproportion in the number of seats up for election impacted partisan risk in the 2016 elections, click here.

Republicans won Democratic seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota, while Democrats won Republican seats in Arizona and Nevada. Republicans will hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate in the 116th Congress.

Incumbents ran for re-election in 32 of 35 races. Five incumbent U.S. senators were defeated—four Democrats and one Republican. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states that supported Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016, while Republicans had to defend just one seat in a state won by Clinton. All five of the incumbents who lost in 2018 were from those 11 states:

* North Dakota: U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) defeated incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D). Trump won the state by 36 points in 2016.

* Missouri: Incumbent U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) lost to Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley (R). Trump won Missouri by 18.5 percentage points in 2016. McCaskill's 2012 re-election was the last time a Democrat won a statewide election in Missouri.

* Indiana: Incumbent U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) lost to former state Rep. Mike Braun (R). Trump won Indiana by 19 points in 2016.

* Florida: Incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson (D) lost to term-limited Gov. Rick Scott (R). Trump won Florida by 1.2 percentage points in 2016.

* Nevada: Incumbent U.S. Sen Dean Heller (R) lost to U.S. Rep. Jacky Rosen (D). Clinton won Nevada by 2.4 percentage points in 2016.

## Election results[edit]

This table shows the results of the U.S. Senate elections on November 6, 2018. Of the 35 seats up for election, Democrats won 22 seats, Republicans won 11 seats, and two seats were won by independents who caucus with the Democrats. In 2018, Republicans had a net gain of two seats and controlled 53 seats at the beginning of the 116th Congress.

Results of United States Senate elections, 2018

State  | Incumbent  | Winner  | Partisan change  | Incumbent status
Arizona |  Jeff Flake |  Kyrsten Sinema | Yes | Incumbent didn't seek re-election
California |  Dianne Feinstein |  Dianne Feinstein | No | Won
Connecticut |  Chris Murphy |  Chris Murphy | No | Won
Delaware |  Tom Carper |  Tom Carper | No | Won
Florida |  Bill Nelson |  Rick Scott | Yes | Lost
Hawaii |  Mazie Hirono |  Mazie Hirono | No | Won
Indiana |  Joe Donnelly |  Mike Braun | Yes | Lost
Massachusetts |  Elizabeth Warren |  Elizabeth Warren | No | Won
Maryland |  Ben Cardin |  Ben Cardin | No | Won
Maine |  Angus King |  Angus King | No | Won
Michigan |  Debbie Stabenow |  Debbie Stabenow | No | Won
Minnesota |  Amy Klobuchar |  Amy Klobuchar | No | Won
Minnesota (special) |  Tina Smith |  Tina Smith | No | Won
Missouri |  Claire McCaskill |  Josh Hawley | Yes | Lost
Mississippi |  Roger Wicker |  Roger Wicker | No | Won
Mississippi (special) |  Cindy Hyde-Smith |  Cindy Hyde-Smith | No | Won
Montana |  Jon Tester |  Jon Tester | No | Won
North Dakota |  Heidi Heitkamp |  Kevin Cramer | Yes | Lost
Nebraska |  Deb Fischer |  Deb Fischer | No | Won
New Jersey |  Bob Menendez |  Bob Menendez | No | Won
New Mexico |  Martin Heinrich |  Martin Heinrich | No | Won
Nevada |  Dean Heller |  Jacky Rosen | Yes | Lost
New York |  Kirsten Gillibrand |  Kirsten Gillibrand | No | Won
Ohio |  Sherrod Brown |  Sherrod Brown | No | Won
Pennsylvania |  Bob Casey |  Bob Casey | No | Won
Rhode Island |  Sheldon Whitehouse |  Sheldon Whitehouse | No | Won
Tennessee |  Bob Corker |  Marsha Blackburn | No | Incumbent didn't seek re-election
Texas |  Ted Cruz |  Ted Cruz | No | Won
Utah |  Orrin Hatch |  Mitt Romney | No | Incumbent didn't seek re-election
Virginia |  Tim Kaine |  Tim Kaine | No | Won
Vermont |  Bernie Sanders |  Bernie Sanders | No | Won
Washington |  Maria Cantwell |  Maria Cantwell | No | Won
Wisconsin |  Tammy Baldwin |  Tammy Baldwin | No | Won
West Virginia |  Joe Manchin |  Joe Manchin | No | Won
Wyoming |  John Barrasso |  John Barrasso | No | Won

## Margin of victory[edit]

See also: Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 congressional elections

The margin of victory for each race is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the two candidates who received the most votes. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100 percent. Some quick facts:

* The average margin of victory was 16.8 percent. This is below the 22.1 percent average in 2016 and the 22.6 percent average in 2014.
* On average, Republicans won by smaller margins than Democrats. The average MOV for victorious Democrats was 16.8 percent, while Republican victors averaged a MOV of 14.3 percent.
* The closest race was in Florida, where challenger Rick Scott (R) defeated incumbent Bill Nelson (D) by 0.15 percent of the vote.

Click [show] to view a list of U.S. Senate elections sorted by margin of victory|

|

|  | U.S. Senate margins of victory, 2018

District | Winner | Winner votes (%) | Runner-up | Runner-up votes (%) | Total votes | Margin of victory
U.S. Senate, Florida |  Rick Scott | 50.05% |  Bill Nelson | 49.93% | 8,190,005 | 0.12%
U.S. Senate, Arizona |  Kyrsten Sinema | 49.96% |  Martha McSally | 47.61% | 2,384,308 | 2.34%
U.S. Senate, Texas |  Ted Cruz | 50.89% |  Beto O'Rourke | 48.33% | 8,371,655 | 2.57%
U.S. Senate, West Virginia |  Joe Manchin III | 49.57% |  Patrick Morrisey | 46.26% | 586,034 | 3.31%
U.S. Senate, Montana |  Jon Tester | 50.33% |  Matt Rosendale | 46.78% | 504,384 | 3.55%
U.S. Senate, Nevada |  Jacky Rosen | 50.41% |  Dean Heller | 45.38% | 972,132 | 5.03%
U.S. Senate, Missouri |  Josh Hawley | 51.38% |  Claire McCaskill | 45.57% | 2,442,289 | 5.81%
U.S. Senate, Indiana |  Mike Braun | 50.73% |  Joe Donnelly | 44.84% | 2,282,565 | 5.89%
U.S. Senate, Michigan |  Debbie Stabenow | 52.26% |  John James | 45.76% | 4,237,271 | 6.51%
U.S. Senate, Ohio |  Sherrod Brown | 53.41% |  Jim Renacci | 46.57% | 4,410,898 | 6.85%
U.S. Senate, California |  Dianne Feinstein | 54.16% |  Kevin de León | 45.84% | 11,113,364 | 8.33%
U.S. Senate, Tennessee |  Marsha Blackburn | 54.71% |  Phil Bredesen | 43.92% | 2,243,740 | 10.79%
U.S. Senate, Wisconsin |  Tammy Baldwin | 55.42% |  Leah Vukmir | 44.58% | 2,657,841 | 10.84%
U.S. Senate, North Dakota |  Kevin Cramer | 55.11% |  Heidi Heitkamp | 44.27% | 326,138 | 10.84%
U.S. Senate, New Jersey |  Bob Menendez | 54.01% |  Bob Hugin | 42.83% | 3,169,310 | 11.18%
U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania |  Bob Casey, Jr. | 55.74% |  Lou Barletta | 42.62% | 5,009,400 | 13.13%
U.S. Senate, Virginia |  Tim Kaine | 57.00% |  Corey Stewart | 41.01% | 3,351,373 | 16.00%
U.S. Senate, Washington |  Maria Cantwell | 58.43% |  Susan Hutchinson | 41.57% | 3,086,168 | 16.87%
U.S. Senate, Mississippi |  Roger Wicker | 58.49% |  David Baria | 39.47% | 936,215 | 19.02%
U.S. Senate, Nebraska |  Deb Fischer | 57.69% |  Jane Raybould | 38.62% | 698,883 | 19.06%
U.S. Senate, Maine |  Angus King | 54.31% |  Eric Brakey | 35.23% | 634,409 | 19.08%
U.S. Senate, Connecticut |  Chris Murphy | 59.53% |  Matthew Corey | 39.35% | 1,386,840 | 20.18%
U.S. Senate, Delaware |  Tom Carper | 59.95% |  Robert Arlett | 37.82% | 362,592 | 22.13%
U.S. Senate, Rhode Island |  Sheldon Whitehouse | 61.44% |  Robert Flanders Jr. | 38.33% | 376,738 | 23.11%
U.S. Senate, New Mexico |  Martin Heinrich | 54.09% |  Mick Rich | 30.53% | 697,012 | 23.56%
U.S. Senate, Minnesota |  Amy Klobuchar | 60.31% |  Jim Newberger | 36.21% | 2,596,879 | 24.10%
U.S. Senate, Massachusetts |  Elizabeth Warren | 60.34% |  Geoff Diehl | 36.17% | 2,707,090 | 24.16%
U.S. Senate, Utah |  Mitt Romney | 62.59% |  Jenny Wilson | 30.91% | 1,062,897 | 31.68%
U.S. Senate, New York |  Kirsten Gillibrand | 67.00% |  Chele Farley | 33.00% | 6,055,151 | 34.00%
U.S. Senate, Maryland |  Ben Cardin | 64.86% |  Tony Campbell | 30.31% | 2,299,889 | 34.55%
U.S. Senate, Wyoming |  John Barrasso | 66.96% |  Gary Trauner | 30.10% | 203,420 | 36.86%
U.S. Senate, Vermont |  Bernie Sanders | 67.32% |  Lawrence Zupan | 27.39% | 272,624 | 39.93%
U.S. Senate, Hawaii |  Mazie Hirono | 71.15% |  Ron Curtis | 28.85% | 388,351 | 42.30%

## Pre-election analysis[edit]

The Democratic Party faced greater partisan risk in regular Senate elections in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Additionally, the Democratic Party had to defend seats in 10 states that supported Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Republicans defended just one Senate seat in a state won by Clinton—Nevada.

Three incumbent senators, all Republicans, did not seek re-election in 2018: Sen. Bob Corker (Tenn.), Sen. Jeff Flake (Ariz.), and Sen. Orrin Hatch (Utah).

Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 33 regular elections on November 6, 2018, began their six-year terms on January 3, 2019.

### Partisan breakdown[edit]

In the 2016 elections, the Republican Party lost two seats but maintained its Senate majority. Heading into the 2018 election, the Republican Party held the majority in the U.S. Senate with 51 Senate seats, Democrats had 47 Senate seats, and two seats were held by independents who caused with the Democratic Party. In the 2018 midterm elections, the Republican Party expanded their majority by two seats.

U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown

Party  | As of November 5, 2018  | After the 2018 Election
| Democratic Party | 47  | 45
| Republican Party | 51 | 53
| Independent  | 2  | 2
| Vacancies  | 0  | 0
Total |  100 |  100

Click here to learn more about the history of partisan control of the U.S. Senate from 2000 to 2018.|

|

From 2000 to 2018, partisan control of the U.S. Senate changed four times. Republicans controlled the chamber entering 2000. Democrats temporarily took a one-vote majority in the Senate after Vermont Sen. Jim Jeffords decided to leave the Republican Party, serve as an independent, and caucus with the Democrats in 2001. Shortly before the 2002 midterm election, however, Minnesota Sen. Paul Wellstone (D) was killed in a plane crash. His replacement, former Vice President Walter Mondale (D), was defeated by Norm Coleman (R). Following the midterm election, Coleman became the 51st Republican senator.[1] In 2005 and 2006, Republicans reached a high of 55 seats compared to the Democrats' 45.

Republicans lost control of the Senate in 2007 following the previous year's midterm election. Democrats won a 51-49 majority that year, which grew to a 59-41 split in 2010. The Senate changed hands again following the 2014 midterm election, and Republicans held a 54-46 majority in 2015 and 2016. This majority fell to a 52-48 split in 2017, and with the special election victory of Alabama Sen. Doug Jones (D) shrinking the Republican majority to 51-49 in 2018, partisan control of the Senate was at risk of changing as a result of the 2018 elections.

If partisan control of the chamber did change in part because of Jones' win, it was another instance of the Senate majority shifting due to unexpected circumstances. A historical example of this would be 1953, when the Republican majority in the Senate shrank to 48-47 after Oregon Sen. Wayne Morse left the Republican Party to become an independent. Nine senators died from 1953 to 1955. When Ohio Sen. Robert Taft (R) died during the summer of 1953, a Democrat was appointed to replace him, which gave the Democratic Party a one-vote majority. The following summer, Wyoming Sen. Lester Hunt (D) committed suicide and a Republican was appointed to replace him. This flipped the majority back into Republican control.[1]

### Battlegrounds[edit]

Including the two special elections, there were 24 Democratic seats, nine Republican seats, and two seats held by independents up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party needed to pick up two seats in the Senate in 2018 to regain the majority they lost in 2014. This was unlikely as there were so few Republican seats up for election.[2]

Click here for more of Ballotpedia's coverage of U.S. Senate battleground races in 2018.

The following map displays which Senate seats were up for election in 2018 and identifies those races that were considered battleground elections. Mouse over a state for more detailed information.

Results of United States Senate battlegrounds, 2018

State  | Incumbent  | Winner  | Partisan change  | Incumbent status
Arizona |  Jeff Flake |  Kyrsten Sinema | Yes | Incumbent didn't seek re-election
California |  Dianne Feinstein |  Dianne Feinstein | No | Won
Florida |  Bill Nelson |  Rick Scott | Yes | Lost
Indiana |  Joe Donnelly |  Mike Braun | Yes | Lost
Minnesota (special) |  Tina Smith |  Tina Smith | No | Won
Missouri |  Claire McCaskill |  Josh Hawley | Yes | Lost
Mississippi (special) |  Cindy Hyde-Smith |  Cindy Hyde-Smith | No | Won
Montana |  Jon Tester |  Jon Tester | No | Won
North Dakota |  Heidi Heitkamp |  Kevin Cramer | Yes | Lost
New Jersey |  Bob Menendez |  Bob Menendez | No | Won
New Mexico |  Martin Heinrich |  Martin Heinrich | No | Won
Nevada |  Dean Heller |  Jacky Rosen | Yes | Lost
Ohio |  Sherrod Brown |  Sherrod Brown | No | Won
Tennessee |  Bob Corker |  Marsha Blackburn | No | Incumbent didn't seek re-election
Texas |  Ted Cruz |  Ted Cruz | No | Won
West Virginia |  Joe Manchin |  Joe Manchin | No | Won

### List of all U.S. Senate elections in 2018[edit]

* United States Senate election in Arizona, 2018
* United States Senate election in California, 2018
* United States Senate election in Delaware, 2018
* United States Senate election in Florida, 2018
* United States Senate election in Connecticut, 2018
* United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2018
* United States Senate election in Maryland, 2018
* United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018
* United States Senate election in Maine, 2018
* United States Senate election in Nevada, 2018
* United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2018
* United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018
* United States Senate election in Ohio, 2018
* United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2018
* United States Senate election in Rhode Island, 2018
* United States Senate election in Mississippi, 2018
* United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018
* United States Senate election in Utah, 2018
* United States Senate election in Montana, 2018
* United States Senate election in Washington, 2018
* United States Senate election in Virginia, 2018
* United States Senate election in West Virginia, 2018
* United States Senate election in Nebraska, 2018
* United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2018
* United States Senate election in New Jersey, 2018
* United States Senate election in New York, 2018
* United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2018
* United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018
* United States Senate election in Wyoming, 2018
* United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2018
* United States Senate election in Tennessee, 2018
* United States Senate election in Texas, 2018
* United States Senate election in Vermont, 2018

### Polls[edit]

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

The following tabs feature the most recent polls in battleground Senate races in 2018.

# Arizona[edit]

U.S. Senate election in Arizona, General election: Sinema vs. McSally

Poll | Poll sponsor |  Sinema |  McSally| Other/Undecided| Margin of error| Sample size
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights
November 2-3, 2018| N/A | 48%| 49%| 3%| +/-3.9| 631
Trafalgar Group
October 30-November 1, 2018| N/A | 50%| 47%| 3%| +/-2.1| 2,166
Vox Populi Polling
October 27-30, 2018| N/A | 52%| 48%| 0%| +/-3.7| 677
Fox News
October 27-29, 2018| N/A | 46%| 46%| 8%| +/-3.5| 643
CNN/SSRS
October 24-29, 2018| N/A | 51%| 47%| 2%| +/-4.4| 702
HighGround Public Affairs
October 26-28, 2018| N/A | 45%| 47%| 9%| +/-4.9| 400
NBC News/Marist
October 23-27, 2018| N/A | 50%| 44%| 6%| +/-5.4| 506
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics
September 17-26, 2018| N/A | 46%| 48%| 6%| +/-4.0| 799
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights
October 22-23, 2018| N/A | 45%| 52%| 3%| +/-4.0| 600
AVERAGES| |  48.11%|  47.56%|  4.44%|  +/-3.99|  791.56
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Click [show] to see older poll results|

|

|  | U.S. Senate election in Arizona, September 10-October 26, 2018

Poll | Poll sponsor |  Sinema |  McSally| Other/Undecided| Margin of error| Sample size
CBS News/YouGov
October 23-26, 2018| N/A | 47%| 44%| 9%| +/-4.1| 972
The New York Times/Siena College
October 15-19, 2018| N/A | 46%| 48%| 6%| +/-4.2| 606
Data Orbital
October 16-17, 2018| N/A | 47%| 41%| 12%| +/-4.0| 600
CBS News/YouGov
October 2-5, 2018| N/A | 47%| 44%| 9%| +/-3.6| 898
OH Predictive Insights/ABC15 Arizona
October 1-2, 2018| N/A | 41%| 47%| 12%| +/-4.0| 600
Fox News Poll
September 27-October 2, 2018| N/A | 47%| 45%| 8%| +/-3.5| 716
Suffolk University
September 27-30, 2018| N/A | 45%| 42%| 13%| +/-4.4| 500
Latino Decisions
September 10-25, 2018| Arizona State University | 47%| 41%| 11%| +/-3.5| 775
AVERAGES| |  45.88%|  44%|  10%|  +/-3.91|  708.38
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
U.S. Senate election in Arizona, March 15-September 21, 2018

Poll | Kyrsten Sinema (D) | Martha McSally (R)| Other/Undecided| Margin of Error| Sample Size
Emerson
September 19-21, 2018 | 45%| 39%| 17%| +/-4.4| 650
NBC News
September 16-20, 2018 | 48%| 45%| 7%| +/-4.7| 564
CNN/SSRS
September 11-15, 2018 | 50%| 43%| 7%| +/-4.3| 761
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics
September 5-14, 2018 | 47%| 44%| 9%| +/-3.5| 1,016
Fox News
September 8-11, 2018 | 47%| 44%| 8%| +/-3.5| 710
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights
September 5-6, 2018 | 46%| 49%| 5%| +/-4.0| 597
Gravis Marketing
September 5-7, 2018 | 48%| 49%| 3%| +/-3.3| 882
Data Orbital
September 4-6, 2018 | 44%| 40%| 16%| +/-4.2| 550
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights
July 23-25, 2018 | 48%| 44%| 8%| +/-4.0| 600
Gravis Marketing
June 27-July 2, 2018 | 43%| 39%| 18%| +/-3.2| 925
Emerson
June 21-22, 2018 | 40%| 32%| 28%| +/-4.0| 650
NBC News/Marist College
June 17-21, 2018 | 49%| 38%| 13%| +/-4.5| 839
Axios/SurveyMonkey
April 2-23, 2018 | 51%| 42%| 7%| +/-4.0| 1,667
Public Policy Polling
March 15-16, 2018 | 46%| 41%| 13%| +/-4.2| 547
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

# California[edit]

### General election[edit]

U.S. Senate election in California, General election

Poll | Feinstein (D) | De León (D)| Undecided/Other| Margin of Error| Sample Size
SurveyUSA
November 1-2, 2018 | 50%| 36%| 14%| +/-4.7| 1,200
Berkeley IGS
October 19-26, 2018 | 45%| 36%| 19%| +/-4.0| 1,339
Probolsky Research
October 25-30, 2018 | 41%| 35%| 24%| +/-3.3| 900
Public Policy Institute of California
October 12-21, 2018 | 43%| 27%| 31%| +/-3.3| 1,704
Probolsky Research
August 29-September 2, 2018 | 37%| 29%| 34%| +/-3.3| 900
The Public Policy Institute of California
July 8-17, 2018 | 46%| 24%| 9%| +/-3.4| 1,711
LA Times
June 6-17, 2018 | 36%| 18%| 46%| +/-4.0| 893
Probolsky Research
April 16-18, 2018 | 38%| 27%| 35%| +/-3.3| 900
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Click [show] to see poll results from the top-two primary|

|

### Top-two primary

| U.S. Senate election in California, Feinstein, de León, and Bradley

Poll | Feinstein (D) | De León (D)| Bradley (R)| Others| Undecided| Margin of Error| Sample Size
Berkeley-IGS
May 22-28, 2018 | 36%| 11%| 7%| 23%| 25%| +/-4.0| 2,106
YouGov
May 12-24, 2018 | 36%| 11%| 6%| 24%| 23%| +/-4.0| 1,113
Berkeley-IGS
April 16-22, 2018 | 28%| 11%| 10%| 14%| 37%| +/-3.5| 1,738
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
U.S. Senate election in California, Top-two primary

Poll | Feinstein (D) | Schrader (R)| Kalemkarian (D)| Little (R)| De León (D)| Melendez (D)| Others| Undecided| Margin of Error| Sample Size
SurveyUSA
March 22-25, 2018 | 31%| 7%| 5%| 5%| 5%| 5%| 13%| 29%| +/-5.0| 517
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
U.S. Senate election in California, Top-two primary, Feinstein v. de León

Poll | Feinstein (D) | de León (D)| Others| Undecided or Would not vote| Margin of Error| Sample Size
Public Policy Institute of California
March 4-13, 2018 | 42%| 16%| 2%| 39%| +/-3.4| 1,706
Public Policy Institute of California
January 21-30, 2018 | 46%| 17%| 3%| 33%| +/-3.2| 1,705
Berkeley IGS Poll
December 7-16, 2017 | 41%| 27%| 0%| 32%| +/-3.8| 1,000
Public Policy Institute of California
November 10-19, 2017 | 45%| 21%| 1%| 33%| +/-4.3| 1,070
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times
October 27-Novmber 6, 2017 | 58%| 31%| 10%| 31%| +/-4.0| 949
Sextant Strategies
September 2017 | 34%| 18%| 33%| 15%| +/-3.4| 1,197
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
U.S. Senate election in California, Feinstein, Little, De León, Hartson, Melendez, De La Fuente

Poll | Feinstein (D) | Little (R)| De León (D)| Hartson (D)| Melendez (D)| De La Fuente (R)| Other/Undecided| Margin of Error| Sample Size
SurveyUSA
April 19-22, 2018 | 39%| 18%| 8%| 4%| 4%| 8%| 19%| +/-N/A| 520
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

# Florida[edit]

U.S. Senate election in Florida, General election

Poll | Poll sponsor |  Nelson |  Scott| Undecided/Other| Margin of error| Sample size
St. Pete Polls
November 3-4, 2018| FloridaPolitics.com | 50%| 46%| 4%| +/-1.8| 3,088
Quinnipiac University
October 29-November 4, 2018| N/A | 51%| 44%| 5%| +/-3.5| 1,142
St. Pete Polls
November 1-2, 2018| FloridaPolitics.com | 48%| 49%| 3%| +/-1.9| 2,733
Marist College
October 30-November 2, 2018| N/A | 50%| 46%| 4%| +/-5.0| 595
Gravis Marketing
October 29-November 2, 2018| N/A | 48%| 46%| 6%| +/-3.6| 753
AVERAGES| |  49.4%|  46.2%|  4.4%|  +/-3.16|  1,662.2
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Click [show] to see older poll results|

|

|  | U.S. Senate election in Florida, October 17-31, 2018

Poll | Poll sponsor |  Nelson |  Scott| Undecided/Other| Margin of error| Sample size
St. Pete Polls
October 30-31, 2018| FloridaPolitics.com | 49%| 47%| 3%| +/-2.0| 2,470
Vox Populi Polling
October 27-30, 2018| N/A | 50%| 50%| 0%| +/-3.7| 696
Trafalgar Group
October 29-30, 2018| N/A | 49%| 47%| 4%| +/-1.9| 2,543
Cygnal
October 27-29, 2018| N/A | 50%| 48%| 2%| +/-4.4| 495
CNN/SSRS
October 24-29, 2018| N/A | 49%| 47%| 4%| +/-4.3| 781
Suffolk University/USA TODAY
October 25-28, 2018| N/A | 45%| 43%| 12%| +/-4.4| 500
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics
October 17-25, 2018| N/A | 49%| 44%| 4%| +/-3.4| 1,069
AVERAGES| |  48.71%|  46.57%|  4.14%|  +/-3.44|  1,222
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
U.S. Senate election in Florida, October 14-27, 2018

Poll | Poll sponsor |  Nelson |  Scott| Undecided/Other| Margin of error| Sample size
New York Times/Siena College
October 23-27, 2018| N/A | 48%| 44%| 8%| +/-4.0| 737
CBS News/YouGov
October 23-26, 2018| N/A | 46%| 46%| 8%| +/-4.0| 991
Florida Atlantic University
October 18-21, 2018| N/A | 41%| 42%| 17%| +/-3.6| 704
Strategic Research Associates
October 16-23, 2018| Gray Television | 46%| 45%| 9%| +/-3.5| 800
St. Pete Polls
October 20-21, 2018| N/A | 48%| 49%| 3%| +/-2.5| 1,575
SurveyUSA/Spectrum News
October 18-21, 2018| N/A | 49%| 41%| 10%| +/-5.0| 665
Quinipiac University
October 17-21, 2018| N/A | 52%| 46%| 2%| +/-3.5| 1,161
SSRS
October 16-20, 2018| CNN | 50%| 45%| 4%| +/-4.2| 759
OnMessage Inc.
October 14-18, 2018| N/A | 46%| 51%| 3%| +/-2.1| 2,200
AVERAGES| |  47.33%|  45.44%|  7.11%|  +/-3.6|  1,065.78
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
U.S. Senate election in Florida, General election

Poll | Bill Nelson (D) | Rick Scott (R)| Undecided/Other| Margin of Error| Sample Size
NBC News/Marist
September 16-20, 2018 | 48%| 45%| 7%| +/-4.7| 600
Tampa Bay Times
September 17-20, 2018 | 45%| 45%| 10%| +/-4.0| 604
Florida Atlantic University
September 13-16, 2018 | 41%| 42%| 17%| +/-3.3| 850
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics
September 5-12, 2018 | 45%| 46%| 10%| +/-3.5| 1,000
Rasmussen Reports
September 10-11, 2018 | 45%| 45%| 11%| +/-3.5| 800
Quinnipiac
August 30-September 3, 2018 | 49%| 49%| 2%| +/-4.3| 785
Gravis Marketing
August 29-30, 2018 | 47%| 47%| 6%| +/-2.8| 1,225
Florida Atlantic University
August 16-20, 2018 | 39%| 45%| 16%| +/-3.4| 800
Mason-Dixon Polling
July 24-25, 2018 | 44%| 47%| 9%| +/-4.0| 625
Florida Atlantic University
July 20-21, 2018 | 40%| 44%| 16%| +/-3.4| 800
Axios/Survey Monkey
June 11-July 2, 2018 | 46%| 49%| 5%| +/-5| 1,080
CBS News/YouGov
June 19-22, 2018 | 40%| 42%| 18%| +/-3.5| 1,002
NBC/Marist
June 17-21, 2018 | 49%| 45%| 6%| +/-3.7| 1,083
Florida Chamber of Commerce
May 25- June 4, 2018 | 45%| 48%| 5%| +/-4.0| 605
Morning Consult
May 29-30, 2018 | 39%| 40%| 21%| +/-3.0| 1,119
Florida Atlantic University
May 4-7, 2018 | 40%| 44%| 16%| +/-3.0| 1,000
McLaughlin & Associates
March 10-13, 2018 | 46%| 47%| 6%| +/-3.4| 800
Clearview Research
March 1-7, 2018 | 41%| 43%| 15%| +/-3.6| 750
Quinnipiac University
February 23-26, 2018 | 46%| 42%| 13%| +/-3.6| 1,156
Florida Atlantic University
February 1-4, 2018 | 34%| 44%| 12%| +/-4.7| 750
University of North Florida
January 29-February 4, 2018 | 48%| 42%| 9%| +/-4.7| 429
Mason-Dixon Polling Strategy
January 30-February 1, 2018 | 45%| 44%| 11%| +/-4.0| 625
Gravis Marketing
November 19-24, 2017 | 44%| 39%| 17%| +/-1.3| 5,778
St. Leo University
November 19-24, 2017 | 32%| 42%| 26%| +/-4.5| 500
JMC Analytics
October 17-19, 2017 | 44%| 44%| 12%| +/-4.0| 625
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

# Indiana[edit]

U.S. Senate election in Indiana, Donnelly vs. Braun

Poll | Poll sponsor |  Donnelly |  Braun| Undecided/Other| Margin of error| Sample size
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)
October 27-30, 2018| Fox News | 45%| 38%| 17%| +/-3.5| 722
Marist University
October 24-28, 2018| NBC News | 45%| 42%| 13%| +/-5.5| 496
Cygnal
October 26-27, 2018| N/A | 46%| 49%| 5%| +/-4.36| 505
YouGov
October 23-26, 2018| CBS News | 43%| 46%| 11%| +/-3.7| 975
Mason Strategies
October 15-20, 2018| IndyPolitics.org | 43%| 47%| 10%| +/-3.9| 600
American Viewpoint
October 14-17, 2018| Braun campaign | 40%| 44%| 16%| +/-3.0| 800
SurveyUSA
October 12-16, 2018| Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics | 41%| 40%| 19%| +/-4.6| 1,400
Vox Populi (Republican vs. Democrat only, no undecided option)
October 13-15, 2018| N/A | 44%| 38%| 0%| +/-3.5| 783
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)
September 29-October 2, 2018| Fox News | 43%| 41%| 16%| +/-3.5| 695
Ipsos/Reuters/UVA Center for Politics
September 12-19, 2018| N/A | 46%| 43%| 11%| +/-3.3| 1,181
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R)
September 8-11, 2018| Fox News | 43%| 45%| 12%| +/-3.5| 677
Marist University
August 26-29, 2018| NBC News | 44%| 41%| 15%| +/-5.0| 576
Trafalgar Group
July 31-August 7, 2018| N/A | 51%| 39%| 11%| +/-2.6| 1,420
AVERAGES| |  44.15%|  42.54%|  12%|  +/-3.84|  833.08
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

# Minnesota[edit]

# Mississippi[edit]

U.S. Senate special election in Mississippi, 2018

Poll | Poll sponsor |  Hyde-Smith |  Espy|  McDaniel|  Bartee| Undecided/Other| Margin of error| Sample size
NBC News/Marist
October 13-18, 2018| N/A | 38%| 29%| 15%| 2%| 15%| +/-6.1| 511
Y'all Politics
July 30-31, 2018| N/A | 41%| 27%| 15%| 1%| 16%| +/-3.5| 2,100
AVERAGES| |  39.5%|  28%|  15%|  1.5%|  15.5%|  +/-4.8|  1,305.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

# Missouri[edit]

U.S. Senate election in Missouri, 2018

Poll | Poll sponsor | Josh Hawley (R) | Claire McCaskill (D)| Other/Undecided| Margin of error| Sample size
Trafalgar Group
(October 29-November 4, 2018)| N/A | 40%| 45%| 15%| +/-2.3| 1,791
Emerson College
(November 1-3, 2018)| N/A | 49%| 46%| 5%| +/-3.8| 732
Remington Research Group
(November 1-2, 2018)| Missouri Scout | 47%| 47%| 6%| +/-2.6| 1,424
Marist University
(October 30-November 1, 2018)| NBC News | 44%| 47%| 9%| +/-5.2| 600
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)
(October 27-30, 2018)| Fox News | 43%| 43%| 14%| +/-3.5| 741
Cygnal
(October 26-27, 2018)| N/A | 49%| 46%| 5%| +/-4.38| 501
Remington Research Group
(October 24-25, 2018)| Missouri Scout | 49%| 45%| 6%| +/-2.6| 1,376
OnMessage Inc.
(October 16-18, 2018)| Hawley campaign | 49%| 42%| 9%| +/-3.46| 800
Remington Research Group
(October 17-18, 2018)| Missouri Scout | 47%| 46%| 7%| +/-2.7| 1,215
The Polling Company
(October 11-13, 2018)| Citizens United | 50%| 47%| 3%| +/-4.0| 600
1st Tuesday Campaigns
(October 5-6, 2018)| N/A | 44%| 42%| 14%| +/-3.02| 1,052
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics
(September 27- October 7, 2018)| N/A | 45%| 44%| 11%| +/-3.0| 1,111
McLaughlin & Associates
(September 29- October 2, 2018)| Missouri Rising Action | 52%| 44%| 4%| +/-4.0| 600
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)
(September 29- October 2, 2018)| Fox News | 43%| 43%| 13%| +/-3.5| 805
AVERAGES| |  46.5%|  44.79%|  8.64%|  +/-3.43|  953.43
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Click here to see older polls|

|

|  | U.S. Senate election in Missouri, 2018

Poll | Poll sponsor | Josh Hawley (R) | Claire McCaskill (D)| Other/Undecided| Margin of error| Sample size
SRSS Research
(September 25- 29, 2018)| CNN | 44%| 47%| 9%| +/-4.3| 756
Remington Research
(September 26- 27, 2018)| Missouri Scout | 48%| 46%| 6%| +/-2.5| 1,555
YouGov
(September 10- 14, 2018)| CBS News | 45%| 45%| 10%| +/-3.3| 1,104
Trafalgar Group
September 11-13, 2018| N/A | 47%| 44%| 8%| +/-2.4| 1,724
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)
September 8-11, 2018| Fox News | 41%| 44%| 15%| +/-3.5| 675
Marist University
August 25-28, 2018| NBC News | 40%| 44%| 16%| +/-4.8| 568
WPA Intelligence
August 12-14, 2018| Club for Growth | 48%| 41%| 11%| +/-4.4| 501
TJP Strategies
August 8-9, 2018| Missouri Scout | 47%| 47%| 6%| +/-2.3| 1,785
Remington Research
July 7-8, 2018| The Missouri Times | 48%| 46%| 6%| +/-3.2| 1,034
Gravis
May 16, 2018| Petersen campaign | 50%| 43%| 7%| +/-3.4| 822
OnMessage Inc.
April 16-18, 2018| Hawley campaign | 46%| 47%| 7%| +/-4.0| 600
Mason-Dixon Poll
April 4-6, 2018| N/A | 44%| 45%| 11%| +/-4.0| 625
Public Policy Polling
January 8-9, 2018| The Majority Institute | 44%| 45%| 11%| +/-3.2| 965
Remington Research
January 3-4, 2018| Missouri Scout | 49%| 45%| 6%| +/-2.9| 1,112
AVERAGES| |  45.79%|  44.93%|  9.21%|  +/-3.44|  987.57
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

# Montana[edit]

United States Senate election in Montana, 2018

Poll | Poll sponsor | Jon Tester (D) | Matt Rosendale (R)| Other/Undecided| Margin of error| Sample size
University of Montana, Big Sky
(October 10-18, 2018)| N/A | 49%| 39%| 12%| +/-4.33| 533
Montana State University, Billings
(October 8-13, 2018)| N/A | 47%| 38%| 15%| +/-4.5| 471
Public Policy Polling
(September 28, 2018)| Protect Our Care | 49%| 45%| 6%| +/-4.0| 594
Axis Research
(September 17-19, 2018)| National Republican Senatorial Committee | 44%| 44%| 12%| +/-4.5| 480
Beneson Strategy Group
(September 6-16, 2018)| AARP | 50%| 43%| 7%| +/-3.0| 950
YouGov
(September 10- 14, 2018)| CBS News | 47%| 45%| 8%| +/-5.2| 543
WPA Intelligence
(August 20- 22, 2018)| National Republican Senatorial Committee | 45%| 47%| 8%| +/-4.0| 600
Remington Research
(July 8 - 10, 2018)| N/A | 49%| 46%| 5%| +/-2.0| 2,581
AVERAGES| |  47.5%|  43.38%|  9.13%|  +/-3.94|  844
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

# Nevada[edit]

Throughout September and October 2018, 10 polls found Heller and Rosen tied within the polls' margins of error.

U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) v. Hagan (L)

Poll | Poll sponsor |  Dean Heller |  Jacky Rosen|  Tim Hagan| Undecided/None| Margin of error| Sample size
SSRS
October 24-29, 2018| CNN | 45%| 48%| 2%| 4%| +/-4.8| 622
NBC/Marist
Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2018| N/A | 44%| 42%| 8%| 6%| +/-5.5| 574
SSRS
September 25-29, 2018| CNN | 43%| 47%| 4%| 5%| +/-4.6| 693
AVERAGES| |  44%|  45.67%|  4.67%|  5%|  +/-4.97|  629.67
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) (with "Other" and "Don't know" options)

Poll | Poll sponsor |  Dean Heller |  Jacky Rosen| Other| Don't know| Margin of error| Sample size
Ipsos/Reuters/UVA
October 12-19, 2018| N/A | 47%| 41%| 8%| 4%| +/-3.3| 1,137
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D)

Poll | Poll sponsor |  Dean Heller |  Jacky Rosen| Undecided/None| Margin of error| Sample size
Emerson College
November 1-4, 2018| N/A | 45%| 49%| 4%| +/-3.0| 1,197
Public Policy Polling
October 15-16, 2018| Protect Our Care | 46%| 48%| 7%| +/-3.9| 648
Vox Populi (Democrat vs. Republican only, no undecided option)
October 13-15, 2018| N/A | 44%| 44%| 0%| +/-3.7| 614
NYT Upshot/Siena College
October 8-10, 2018| N/A | 47%| 45%| 7%| +/-4.0| 642
NBC/Marist
Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2018| N/A | 46%| 44%| 9%| +/-5.5| 574
Ipsos
September 7-17, 2018| N/A | 46%| 43%| 8%| +/-3.7| 1,039
Gravis
September 11-12, 2018| N/A | 45%| 47%| 8%| +/-3.7| 700
Public Policy Polling
August 20-21, 2018| Protect Our Care | 43%| 48%| 9%| +/-4.3| 500
Suffolk University
July 24-29, 2018| N/A | 41%| 40%| 9%| +/-4.4| 500
AVERAGES| |  44.78%|  45.33%|  6.78%|  +/-4.02|  712.67
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) v. Hagan (L) v. Bakari (Independent American) v. Michaels (Independent)

Poll |  Dean Heller |  Jacky Rosen|  Tim Hagan|  Kamau Bakari|  Barry Michaels| Undecided| Margin of error| Sample size
Suffolk University
September 5-10, 2018 | 41%| 42%| 2%| 2%| 2%| 9%| +/-4.4| 500
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Click [show] to view polling conducted before the June 12, 2018, primary.|

|

|  | U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D)

Poll | Dean Heller (R) | Jacky Rosen (D)| Undecided| Margin of Error| Sample Size
Public Policy Polling
April 30-May 1, 2018 | 42%| 44%| 14%| +/-3.9| 637
Axios/Survey Monkey
April 2-23, 2018 | 44%| 50%| 6%| +/-5.0| 1,332
Mellman Group
April 12-19, 2018 | 40%| 39%| 21%| +/-4.0| 600
Public Policy Polling
March 15-17, 2018 | 39%| 44%| 17%| +/-3.7| 720
Public Policy Polling
June 23-25, 2017 | 41%| 42%| 17%| +/-3.9| 648
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Republican primary

U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Republican primary

Poll | Danny Tarkanian | Dean Heller| Undecided| Margin of Error| Sample Size
JMC Analytics
October 24-26, 2017 | 44%| 38%| 17%| +/-4.4| 500
JMC Analytics
August 24-25, 2017 | 39%| 31%| 31%| +/-3.7| 700
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

# New Jersey[edit]

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
U.S. Senate election in New Jersey

Poll | Poll sponsor | Menendez | Hugin| Sabrin| Unsure/Someone else/Wouldn't Vote| Margin of Error| Sample Size
Quinnipiac University
(October 29 - November 4, 2018)| N/A | 55%| 40%| 0%| 5%| +/-4.0| 1,115
Stockton University
(October 25-31, 2018)| N/A | 51%| 39%| 3%| 6%| +/-4.0| 598
Vox Populi Polling
(October 27-29, 2018)| N/A | 54%| 46%| 0%| 0%| +/-3.4| 814
Emerson College
(October 24-26, 2018)| N/A | 47%| 42%| 0%| 7%| +/-4.0| 659
Rutgers University
(October 12-19, 2018)| N/A | 51%| 46%| 0%| 4%| +/-5.1| 496
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
Click [show] to see older poll results|

|

|  | U.S. Senate election in New Jersey

Poll | Menendez | Hugin| Sabrin| Unsure/Someone else/Wouldn't Vote| Margin of Error| Sample Size
Monmouth University
(October 11-15, 2018) | 49%| 40%| 1%| 10%| +/-4.3| 527
Quinnipiac University
(October 10-16, 2018) | 51%| 44%| 0%| 5%| +/-4.3| 873
CBS News/YouGov
October 2-5, 2018 | 49%| 39%| 0%| 12%| +/-3.6| 704
Quinnipiac University
September 15- October 2, 2018 | 53%| 42%| 0%| 5%| +/-4.1| 1,058
Fairleigh Dickinson University
September 26-30, 2018 | 43%| 37%| 0%| 21%| +/-3.9| 508
Stockton University
September 19-27, 2018 | 45%| 43%| 3%| 8%| +/-4.3| 531
Quinnipiac University Poll
August 15-20, 2018 | 43%| 37%| 0%| 20%| +/-4.6| 908
Gravis Marketing/Sabrin (L) Internal Poll
August 14-15, 2018 | 40%| 30%| 7%| 44%| +/-3.6| 753
Gravis Marketing
July 6-10, 2018 | 43%| 41%| 0%| 16%| +/-4.1| 563
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

# New Mexico[edit]

U.S. Senate election in New Mexico, Heinrich (D) v. Johnson (L) v. Rich (R)

Poll | Poll sponsor |  Martin Heinrich |  Gary Johnson|  Mick Rich| Undecided| Margin of error| Sample size
Research & Polling Inc.
Oct. 26-Nov. 1, 2018| Albuquerque Journal | 51%| 12%| 31%| 6%| +/-4.7| 993
Emerson College
October 24-26, 2018| N/A | 48%| 16%| 32%| 6%| +/-3.4| 936
Research & Polling Inc.
September 7-13, 2018| Albuquerque Journal | 47%| 16%| 26%| 0%| +/-3.1| 966
Emerson College
August 17-18, 2018| N/A | 39%| 21%| 11%| 30%| +/-4.6| 500
AVERAGES| |  46.25%|  16.25%|  25%|  10.5%|  +/-3.95|  848.75
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

# North Dakota[edit]

U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, Cramer (R) v. Heitkamp (D)

Poll | Poll sponsor |  Cramer |  Heitkamp| Undecided| Margin of error| Sample size
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R)
October 27-30, 2018| FOX News | 51%| 42%| 4%| +/-3| 789
Strategic Research Associates
October 12-19, 2018| Gray TV | 56%| 40%| 4%| +/-3.8| 650
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R)
Sept. 28-Oct. 2, 2018| FOX News | 53%| 41%| 3%| +/-3.5| 704
Strategic Research Associates
September 17-27, 2018| Gray TV | 51%| 41%| 8%| +/-3.8| 650
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R)
September 8-11, 2018| FOX News | 48%| 44%| 6%| +/-3.5| 701
Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy
June 13-15, 2018| N/A | 48%| 44%| 8%| +/-4| 625
AVERAGES| |  51.17%|  42%|  5.5%|  +/-3.6|  686.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Click [show] to view polling conducted before the June 12, 2018, primary.|

|

|  | U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, Campbell (R) v. Heitkamp (D) (hypothetical match-up)

Poll | Tom Campbell (R) | Heidi Heitkamp (D)| Other| Margin of Error| Sample Size
1892 Polling
October 11-12, 2017 | 44%| 41%| 15%| +/-4.9| 500
1892 Polling
May 30-June 1, 2017 | 37%| 43%| 20%| +/-4.9| 500
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, Republican primary

Poll | Tom Campbell (R) | Rick Berg (R)| Other candidate(s)| Undecided| Margin of Error| Sample Size
1892 Polling
October 11-12, 2017 | 32%| 34%| 9%| 35%| +/-4.0| 400
1892 Polling
May 30-June 1, 2017 | 7%| 39%| 9%| 45%| +/-4.0| 400
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

# Ohio[edit]

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
United States Senate election in Ohio, 2018

Poll | Poll sponsor | Sherrod Brown (D) | Jim Renacci (R)| Undecided/Other| Margin of error| Sample size
Gravis Marketing
(October 29-30, 2018)| N/A | 46%| 37%| 17%| +/-3.5| 789
Cygnal
(October 30-31, 2018)| N/A | 52%| 42%| 6%| +/-4.4| 503
Baldwin Wallace University
(October 19-27, 2018)| N/A | 51%| 32%| 17%| +/-3.8| 1,051
Suffolk University
(October 4-8, 2018)| The Cincinnati Enquirer | 54%| 36%| 10%| +/-4.4| 500
Baldwin Wallace University
(September 28-October 8, 2018)| N/A | 49%| 33%| 18%| +/-3.5| 1,007
AVERAGES| |  50.4%|  36%|  13.6%|  +/-3.92|  770
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Click [show] to see older poll results|

|

|  | United States Senate election in Ohio, 2018

Poll | Sherrod Brown (D) | Jim Renacci (R)| Margin of error| Sample size
Triton Polling
(September 18-20, 2018) | 52%| 42%| 5%| +/-3.1| 1,003
Baldwin Wallace University
(September 5-15, 2018) | 49%| 32%| 19%| +/-3.6| 1,048
Politico/Morning Consult
(September 2-11, 2018) | 47%| 31%| +/-2| 1,592
NBC/Marist
(June 17-22, 2018) | 51%| 38%| +/-4.4| 778
Enquirer/Suffolk University
(June 6-11, 2018) | 53%| 37%| +/-4.4| 500
Quinnipiac University
(June 7-12, 2018) | 51%| 34%| +/-3.7| 1,082
Fallon Research
(May 21-25, 2018) | 48%| 34%| +/-3.5| 800
Baldwin Wallace University
(February 28, 2018 - March 9, 2018) | 41%| 29%| +/-3| 1,101
Survey USA
(March 16, 2018 - March 20, 2018) | 52%| 38%| +/-3.5| 1,408
AVERAGES|  49.33%|  35%|  +/-3.47|  1,034.67
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

# Tennessee[edit]

U.S. Senate in Tennessee, General election

Poll | Phil Bredesen (D) | Marsha Blackburn (R)| Undecided/Other| Margin of Error| Sample Size
East Tennessee State University
October 22-29, 2018 | 44%| 44%| 12%| +/-4.0| 610
SSRS
October 24-29, 2018 | 45%| 49%| 6%| +/-4.3| 764
Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research
October 27-30, 2018 | 41%| 50%| 5%| +/-3.0| 850
Marist Poll
October 23-27, 2018 | 46%| 51%| 4%| +/-4.0| 910
Vanderbilt University
October 8-13, 2018 | 44%| 43%| 12%| +/-4.9| 800
Reuters
October 4-11, 2018 | 44%| 47%| 10%| +/-3.4| 1,108
NYT Upshot/Siena College
October 7-11, 2018 | 40%| 54%| 6%| +/-4.2| 593
YouGov
October 2-5, 2018 | 42%| 50%| 8%| +/-3.4| 1,002
Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research
September 29-October 2, 2018 | 43%| 48%| 10%| +/-3.5| 806
Triton Polling and Research
September 10-12, 2018 | 45%| 48.3%| 6.7%| +/-3.0| 1,038
SSRS
September 11-15, 2018 | 50%| 45%| 5%| +/-4.3| 723
NBC News/Marist
August 25-28, 2018 | 48%| 46%| 6%| +/-5.1| 538
Gravis
August 9-11, 2018 | 44%| 48%| 8%| +/-3.9| 620
Public Policy Polling
July 10-11, 2018 | 44%| 41%| 15%| +/-4.1| 583
Middle Tennessee State University
March 22-29, 2018 | 45%| 35%| 20%| +/-4.0| 600
Garin-Hart-Yang (commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee)
October 20-22, 2017 | 46%| 41%| 13%| +/-4.1| 601
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

# Texas[edit]

U.S. Senate election in Texas, General election: Cruz vs. O'Rourke

Poll | Poll sponsor |  Cruz |  O'Rourke| Other/Undecided| Margin of error| Sample size
Trafalgar Group
November 3-5, 2018| N/A | 52%| 43%| 5%| +/-2.1| 2,135
Emerson
October 28-30, 2018| N/A | 50%| 47%| 2%| +/-3.7| 781
UT Tyler Polling Center
October 15-28, 2018| N/A | 46%| 39%| 15%| +/-3.0| 1,033
Quinnipiac University
October 22-28, 2018| N/A | 51%| 46%| 3%| +/-3.5| 1,078
CBS 11/Dixie Strategies
October 25-26, 2018| N/A | 52%| 42%| 5%| +/-4.0| 588
University of Texas/Texas Tribune
October 15-21, 2018| N/A | 51%| 45%| 4%| +/-3.2| 927
GBA Strategies
October 18-21, 2018| End Citizens United | 50%| 46%| 4%| +/-3.2| 1,298
Reuters
October 12-18, 2018| N/A | 49%| 44%| 7%| +/-3.2| 1,298
CNN/SRSS
October 9-13, 2018| N/A | 52%| 45%| 3%| +/-4.5| 716
WPA Intelligence
October 8-13, 2018| Club for Growth Action | 52%| 43%| 5%| +/-3.5| 801
New York Times/Siena College
October 8-11, 2018| N/A | 51%| 43%| 6%| +/-3.6| 800
Quinnipiac University
October 3-9, 2018| N/A | 54%| 45%| 2%| +/-4.4| 730
CBS News/YouGov
October 2-5, 2018| N/A | 50%| 44%| 6%| +/-4.2| 881
Emerson
October 1-5, 2018| N/A | 47%| 42%| 11%| +/-4.5| 500
AVERAGES| |  50.5%|  43.86%|  5.57%|  +/-3.61|  969
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Click [show] to see older poll results|

|

|  | U.S. Senate election in Texas, General election: Cruz vs. O'Rourke

Poll | Poll sponsor | Ted Cruz (R) | Beto O'Rourke (D)| Other/Undecided| Margin of Error| Sample Size
Public Policy Polling
September 19-20, 2018| Protect Our Care | 48%| 45%| 7%| +/-4.0| 613
Quinnipiac University
September 11-17, 2018| N/A | 54%| 45%| 1%| +/-4.1| 807
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics
September 6-14, 2018| N/A | 45%| 47%| 8%| +/-4.0| 992
CBS 11/Dixie Strategies Poll
September 6-7, 2018| N/A | 46%| 42%| 11%| +/-4.3| 519
NBC News/Marist
August 12-16, 2018| N/A | 49%| 45%| 6%| +/-3.8| 759
Public Policy Polling
August 2-3, 2018| N/A | 46%| 42%| 12%| +/-3.5| 797
Quinnipiac University
July 26-31, 2018| N/A | 49%| 43%| 7%| +/-3.5| 1,118
Lyceum
July 9-26, 2018| N/A | 36%| 34%| 27%| +/-3.45| 806
Gravis Marketing
July 3-7, 2018| N/A | 51%| 42%| 7%| +/-4.0| 602
CBS News/YouGov
June 19-22, 2018| N/A | 44%| 36%| 20%| +/-3.6| 1,030
University of Texas/Texas Tribune
June 8-17, 2018| N/A | 41%| 36%| 22%| +/-2.8| 1,200
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
May 20-June 5, 2018| End Citizens United | 49%| 43%| 8%| +/-3.1| 1,000
Quinnipiac University
May 23-29, 2018| N/A | 50%| 39%| 11%| +/-3.8| 961
Public Policy Polling
May 21-22, 2018| Giffords | 48%| 42%| 10%| +/-3.3| 861
JMC Analytics
May 19-21, 2018| Red Metrics Group | 47%| 40%| 13%| +/-4.1| 575
Quinnipiac University
April 12-17, 2018| N/A | 47%| 44%| 9%| +/-3.6| 1,029
Public Policy Polling
January 17-18, 2018| End Citizens United | 45%| 37%| 18%| +/-3.6| 757
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

# West Virginia[edit]

U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, General election (Manchin vs. Morrisey)

Poll | Poll sponsor | Joe Manchin (D) | Patrick Morrisey (R)| Undecided/Other| Margin of Error| Sample Size
Emerson College
(October 28-31, 2018)| N/A | 47%| 42%| 11%| +/-3.2| 1,013
Research America
(October 19-30, 2018)| The Metro News
The Dominion Post | 45%| 40%| 16%| +/-4.9| 400
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
(October 16-18, 2018)| National Republican Senatorial Committee | 42%| 44%| 15%| +/-4.0| 600
PopPolling Research
(October 13-15, 2018)| N/A | 53%| 47%| 0%| +/-3.5| 789
Strategic Research Associates, LLC
(October 12-19, 2018)| Gray Television | 52%| 36%| 12%| +/-3.8| 650
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
Click [show] to view earlier polls of the general election.|

|

|  | U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, General election (Manchin vs. Morrisey)

Poll | Poll sponsor | Joe Manchin (D) | Patrick Morrisey (R)| Undecided/Other| Margin of Error| Sample Size
The Polling Company
(October 11-13, 2018)| Citizens United Political Victory Fund | 49%| 45%| 5%| +/-4.0| 600
Public Opinion Strategies
(October 7-9, 2018)| National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Morrisey campaign | 41%| 40%| 19%| +/-4.0| 600
The Tarrance Group
(September 23-25, 2018) | 47%| 43%| 10%| +/-4.1| 612
Global Strategy Group
(September 19-23, 2018) | 48%| 36%| 16%| +/-4.0| 601
Strategic Research Associates, LLC
(September 17-26, 2018) | 46%| 38%| 16%| +/-3.8| 650
1892 Polling
(September 24-25, 2018) | 45%| 45%| 10%| +/-4.4| 500
Harper Polling
(August 23-26, 2018) | 47%| 41%| 12%| +/-4.0| 600
MetroNews Dominion Post
(August 16-26, 2018) | 46%| 38%| 16%| +/-4.9| 404
Trafalgar Group
(July 13-16, 2018) | 50%| 40%| 10%| +/-2.9| 1,158
Monmouth University
(June 14-19, 2018) | 49%| 42%| 9%| +/-3.8| 653
Public Policy Polling
(June 12-13, 2018) | 49%| 42%| 9%| +/-3.9| 633
Global Strategy Group
May 13-16, 2018 | 50%| 42%| 8%| +/-4.0| 600
WPA Intelligence
May 10, 2018 | 44%| 46%| 10%| +/-4.9| 400
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, General election (Manchin, Morrisey, and Blankenship)

Poll | Joe Manchin (D) | Patrick Morrisey (R)| Don Blankenship| Undecided/Other| Margin of Error| Sample Size
Monmouth University
(June 14-19, 2018) | 48%| 39%| 4%| 8%| +/-3.8| 653
Public Policy Polling
(June 12-13, 2018) | 46%| 35%| 11%| 7%| +/-3.9| 633
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
Click [show] to view polls conducted in 2017.|

|

|  | U.S. Senate general election in West Virginia, Mountain State Polls

Poll | Joe Manchin | Evan Jenkins| Alex Mooney| Patrick Morrisey| Undecided/Other| Margin of error| Sample size
The Zogby Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Evan Jenkins
(September 27-30, 2017) | 49%| 36%| 0%| 0%| 15%| +/-5.5| 320
The Zogby Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney
(September 27-30, 2017) | 49%| 0%| 35%| 0%| 17%| +/-5.5| 320
The Zogby Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey
(September 27-30, 2017) | 45%| 0%| 0%| 38%| 17%| +/-5.5| 320
MetroNews West Virginia, Joe Manchin vs. Evan Jenkins
(August 11-20, 2017) | 50%| 40%| 0%| 0%| 11%| +/-4.9| 400
MetroNews West Virginia, Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey
(August 11-20, 2017) | 51%| 0%| 0%| 37%| 11%| +/-4.9| 400
The Mountain State Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Evan Jenkins
(March 24-29, 2017) | 52%| 28%| 0%| 0%| 20%| +/-4.89| 402
The Mountain State Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey
(March 24-29, 2017) | 51%| 0%| 0%| 29%| 20%| +/-4.89| 402
AVERAGES|  49.57%|  14.86%|  5%|  14.86%|  15.86%|  +/-5.15|  366.29
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Click [show] to view polling in the Republican primary.|

|

|  | U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, Republican primary

Poll | Patrick Morrisey (R) | Evan Jenkins (R)| Don Blankenship (R)| Undecided/Other| Margin of Error| Sample Size
Public Opinion Strategies (commissioned by Morrisey)
April 22-23, 2018 | 28%| 26%| 15%| 18%| +/-4.4| 500
Fox News
April 18-22, 2018 | 21%| 25%| 16%| 39%| +/-3.0| 985
GOPAC
April 17-19, 2018 | 24%| 20%| 12%| 44%| +/-4.9| 411
Harper Polling
March 2018 | 19%| 29%| 27%| 23%| +/-4.4| 500
Osage Research
March 2018 | 24%| 17%| 22%| 37%| +/-4.4| 500
Harper Polling
February 5-6, 2018 | 25%| 33%| 18%| 24%| +/-4.4| 500
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates
October 19-22, 2017 | 40%| 34%| 0%| 26%| +/-4.9| 400
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

### Race ratings[edit]

The following table compares the race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. It was updated biweekly.

## Special elections to the 115th U.S. Congress[edit]

See also: Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)

In the 17 special elections called to fill vacancies in the 115th Congress in 2017 and 2018, nine Republicans and eight Democrats won. Four elections resulted in a partisan flip:

* Doug Jones (D), U.S. Senate in Alabama;
* Conor Lamb (D), Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District;
* Mary Gay Scanlon (D), Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District; and
* Susan Wild (D), Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District.

Results of special elections to the 115th Congress

Race  | Election date  | Incumbent  | Winner  | Election MOV  | Previous election MOV  | 2016 Presidential election MOV[3]
Kansas' 4th Congressional District | April 11, 2017 |  Mike Pompeo |  Ron Estes | R+6 | R+31 | R+27
Montana's At-Large Congressional District | May 25, 2017 |  Ryan Zinke |  Greg Gianforte | R+6 | R+15 | R+21
California's 34th Congressional District | June 6, 2017 |  Xavier Becerra |  Jimmy Gomez | D+18[4] | D+54[4] | D+73
Georgia's 6th Congressional District | June 20, 2017 |  Tom Price |  Karen Handel | R+4 | R+24 | R+1
South Carolina's 5th Congressional District | June 20, 2017 |  Mick Mulvaney |  Ralph Norman | R+3 | R+20 | R+18
Utah's 3rd Congressional District | November 7, 2017 |  Jason Chaffetz |  John Curtis | R+32 | R+47 | R+24
U.S. Senate in Alabama | December 12, 2017 |  Jeff Sessions |  Doug Jones | D+2 | R+28 | R+28
Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District | March 13, 2018 |  Tim Murphy |  Conor Lamb | D+0[5] | R+100 | R+19
Arizona's 8th Congressional District | April 24, 2018 |  Trent Franks |  Debbie Lesko | R+6 | R+38 | R+21
Texas' 27th Congressional District | June 30, 2018 |  Blake Farenthold |  Michael Cloud | R+23 | R+24 | R+23
Ohio's 12th Congressional District | August 7, 2018 |  Patrick Tiberi |  Troy Balderson | R+1 | R+40 | R+11
Michigan's 13th Congressional District | November 6, 2018 |  John Conyers Jr. |  Brenda Jones | D+78 | D+61 | D+61
U.S. Senate in Minnesota | November 6, 2018 |  Al Franken |  Tina Smith | D+11 | D+10 | D+2
U.S. Senate in Mississippi | November 6, 2018 |  Thad Cochran |  Cindy Hyde-Smith | R+8 | R+22 | R+18
New York's 25th Congressional District | November 6, 2018 |  Louise Slaughter |  Joseph Morelle | D+16 | D+12 | D+16
Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District | November 6, 2018 |  Patrick Meehan |  Mary Gay Scanlon | D+6 | R+19 | D+2
Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District | November 6, 2018 |  Charlie Dent |  Susan Wild | D+0 | R+20 | R+8

### Incumbents not running for re-election[edit]

See also: List of U.S. Congress incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2018

#### U.S. senators not running for re-election, 2018[edit]

* 0 Democrats
* 3 Republicans

Name:| Party:| Current office:

|
|

Bob Corker|  Republican| Tennessee
Jeff Flake|  Republican| Arizona
Orrin Hatch|  Republican| Utah

#### Historical comparison of incumbents not running for re-election[edit]

The following table includes figures on Democratic and Republican members of Congress who either left office during their term or announced that they would not seek re-election for each election year since 2012.

Outgoing members of Congress, 2012-2018

Year | Chamber | Democrats not seeking re-election | Republicans not seeking re-election | Total not seeking re-election | Democrats leaving office early | Republicans leaving office early | Total leaving office early
2018
U.S. Senate | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3
U.S. House | 18 | 34 | 52 | 3 | 14 | 17
Total | 18 | 37 | 55 | 4 | 16 | 20
2016
U.S. Senate | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0
U.S. House | 16 | 24 | 40 | 2 | 5 | 7
Total | 19 | 26 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 7
2014
U.S. Senate | 5 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5
U.S. House | 16 | 25 | 41 | 3 | 6 | 9
Total | 21 | 27 | 48 | 6 | 8 | 14
2012
U.S. Senate | 6 | 3 | 10[6] | 0 | 0 | 0
U.S. House | 23 | 20 | 43 | 4 | 1 | 5
Total | 29 | 23 | 53 | 4 | 1 | 5

### Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report[edit]

See also: Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2018

Ballotpedia’s 2018 study of competitiveness in congressional elections found that nearly 13 percent of incumbent U.S. representatives and senators would not be on the 2018 general election ballot.

HIGHLIGHTS

* Of the U.S. representatives and U.S. senators who could have been eligible to run for re-election in 2018, 58 of them (12.9 percent) either decided not to do so or were defeated in a partisan primary before reaching the general election.

* In those 58 open seats where an incumbent either decided not to seek re-election or was defeated in a primary before the general election, there were 16 races where the incumbent's district overlapped at least one pivot county (a county that voted twice to elect President Obama in 2008 and 2012, but then switched to supporting President Trump for 2016).

* In 22 races, the incumbent chose instead to run for a statewide office or (in one case) for U.S. president. One of every 10 U.S. House races nationwide in 2018 featured just one major party candidate participating in the general election.

### Outcome of recent presidential and gubernatorial elections[edit]

The following section compares data from recent presidential and gubernatorial elections with the party of the incumbent in each 2018 Senate race. These trends were used as an early indicator of expected competitive Senate races in the 2018 elections. All of these statistics predicted that the Democratic Party would be more vulnerable than the Republican Party in the 2018 Senate elections.

* There were 10 states with a Democratic incumbent that Donald Trump won in 2016—Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—and only one state with a Republican incumbent that was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016: Nevada.

* There were 13 states with a Democratic incumbent that have a Republican governor—New Mexico, North Dakota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Maryland, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine—but no states with a Republican incumbent and a Democratic governor.

* There were four states that Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 that were won by Donald Trump in 2016—Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—but no states that were won by the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 (McCain and Romney) that were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

### Key endorsements[edit]

#### Barack Obama[edit]

See also: Endorsements by Barack Obama

#### Donald Trump[edit]

See also: Endorsements by Donald Trump

## Wave election analysis[edit]

See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition to U.S. Senate elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

U.S. Senate wave elections

Year | President | Party | Election type | Senate seats change | Senate majority[7]
1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -13 | D (flipped)
1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -12 | D
1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -10 | R (flipped)
1980 | Carter | D | Presidential | -9 | R (flipped)
2014 | Obama | D | Second midterm | -9 | R (flipped)
1942 | Roosevelt | D | Third midterm | -8 | D
2008 | George W. Bush | D | Presidential | -8 | D
1926 | Coolidge | R | First midterm[8] | -7 | R
1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -7 | R
1986 | Reagan | R | Second midterm | -7 | D (flipped)

### Analysis of federal elections, 2018[edit]

See also: Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018

All 435 U.S. House seats and 33 U.S. Senate seats were up for regular elections in the 2018 midterms. Heading into the election, the Republican Party held a majority in both chambers.

All federal elections:

Ballotpedia's 2018 Candidate Connection report
United States Congress elections, 2018
Ballotpedia's Top 15 elections to watch, 2018
Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)
List of candidates who ran in U.S. Congress elections, 2018
List of U.S. Congress incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2018
Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2018
Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 congressional elections
Incumbents defeated in 2018 congressional elections
Incumbent win rates by state
New members elected in 2018 congressional elections
Comparison of state delegations to the 115th and 116th Congresses
Congressional elections decided by 10 percent or less, 2018
Results of federal elected officials seeking other offices, 2018
Noteworthy minor party candidates in the 2018 elections
PredictIt markets in the 2018 elections
Fundraising in Congressional elections, 2018
Battleground election polls, 2018
Timeline of events impacting 2018 congressional elections
Media coverage of United States Congress elections, 2018

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U.S. Senate elections:
U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2018
United States Senate elections, 2018
Control of the U.S. Senate
States with both gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections in 2018

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U.S. House elections:
U.S. House battlegrounds, 2018
United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Control of the U.S. House
U.S. House districts represented by a Republican and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016
U.S. House districts represented by a Democrat and won by Donald Trump in 2016
U.S. House elections without a Democratic or Republican candidate, 2018

### Election issues[edit]

Click below to read about what members of the 115th Congress said about the following issues.

Throughout the course of the 115th Congress, we curated statements and reactions by members of Congress on a variety of different policy areas and topics. Click on a tile below to read about what members of the 115th Congress said about the following issues.

The American Health Care Act of 2017 (AHCA)

Energy and the Environment

Financial Policy

Healthcare

Immigration

Taxes

Trade

## See also[edit]

* United States Congress elections, 2018
* United States House of Representatives elections, 2018

## Footnotes[edit]

1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Politico, "Republican Control of the Senate Hangs by a Thread," December 21, 2017
2. ↑ Slate, "Are You Dreaming of Democrats Taking the Senate in 2018? Time to Wake Up." November 14, 2016
3. ↑ Daily Kos, "2008, 2012, & 2016 Presidential Election Results by District," accessed July 11, 2018
4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 Both general election candidates were Democrats.
5. ↑ Lamb won by a margin of 0.4 percentage points.
6. ↑ Figure includes Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.).
7. ↑ Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
8. ↑ Calvin Coolidge's (R) first term began in August 1923 after the death of President Warren Harding (R), who was first elected in 1920. Before he had his first midterm in 1926, Coolidge was re-elected as president in 1924.

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