Hierarchy of beliefs

The hierarchy of beliefs is a mathematical construct in game theory used to model incomplete information situations, where players are uncertain about other players' private information. Each player is modeled as having a privately known "type" that determines their preferences and beliefs, which in turn guide their strategic decisions. This approach builds upon John Harsanyi’s foundational work on games with incomplete information.

In this framework, a player's first-order beliefs are probability distributions over other players’ types. Second-order beliefs are beliefs about others’ first-order beliefs, and this recursive structure continues indefinitely, forming a hierarchy of beliefs.

Jean-François Mertens and Shmuel Zamir’s key contribution in 1985 was the construction of a universal type space—a mathematical structure encompassing all possible hierarchies of beliefs consistent with the model.[1] This universal space enables a rigorous treatment of beliefs at all levels and provides a foundation for practical approximations using finite type spaces.

The concept has become central in Bayesian game theory, with applications in economics, computer science, AI, and philosophy. It is particularly useful in analyzing strategic interactions under asymmetric information and uncertainty, and in exploring notions like common knowledge, as formalized by Robert Aumann, and induction puzzles involving recursive reasoning.[2]

## References

1. ↑ Mertens, Jean-François; Zamir, Shmuel (1985). "Formulation of Bayesian analysis for games with incomplete information". International Journal of Game Theory 14 (1): 1-29. doi:10.1007/BF01770224. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF01770224.
2. ↑ Herbert Gintis (16 March 2009). The bounds of reason: game theory and the unification of the behavioral sciences. Princeton University Press. p. 158. ISBN 978-0-691-14052-0. https://books.google.com/books?id=an9MXLCYgw8C&pg=PA158. Retrieved 3 March 2012.

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Topics in game theory

Definitions|

* Cooperative game
* Determinacy
* Escalation of commitment
* Extensive-form game
* First-player and second-player win
* Game complexity
* Graphical game
* Hierarchy of beliefs
* Information set
* Normal-form game
* Preference
* Sequential game
* Simultaneous game
* Simultaneous action selection
* Solved game
* Succinct game

Equilibrium
concepts|

* Nash equilibrium
* Subgame perfection
* Mertens-stable equilibrium
* Bayesian Nash equilibrium
* Perfect Bayesian equilibrium
* Trembling hand
* Proper equilibrium
* Epsilon-equilibrium
* Correlated equilibrium
* Sequential equilibrium
* Quasi-perfect equilibrium
* Evolutionarily stable strategy
* Risk dominance
* Core
* Shapley value
* Pareto efficiency
* Gibbs equilibrium
* Quantal response equilibrium
* Self-confirming equilibrium
* Strong Nash equilibrium
* Markov perfect equilibrium

Strategies|

* Dominant strategies
* Pure strategy
* Mixed strategy
* Strategy-stealing argument
* Tit for tat
* Grim trigger
* Collusion
* Backward induction
* Forward induction
* Markov strategy

Classes
of games|

* Symmetric game
* Perfect information
* Repeated game
* Signaling game
* Screening game
* Cheap talk
* Zero-sum game
* Mechanism design
* Bargaining problem
* Stochastic game
* n-player game
* Large Poisson game
* Nontransitive game
* Global game
* Strictly determined game
* Potential game

Games|

* Go
* Chess
* Infinite chess
* Checkers
* Tic-tac-toe
* Prisoner's dilemma
* Optional prisoner's dilemma
* Traveler's dilemma
* Coordination game
* Chicken
* Centipede game
* Volunteer's dilemma
* Dollar auction
* Battle of the sexes
* Stag hunt
* Matching pennies
* Ultimatum game
* Rock paper scissors
* Pirate game
* Dictator game
* Public goods game
* Blotto game
* War of attrition
* El Farol Bar problem
* Fair division
* Fair cake-cutting
* Cournot game
* Deadlock
* Diner's dilemma
* Guess 2/3 of the average
* Kuhn poker
* Nash bargaining game
* Prisoners and hats puzzle
* Trust game
* Princess and Monster game
* Rendezvous problem

Theorems|

* Arrow's impossibility theorem
* Aumann's agreement theorem
* Folk theorem
* Minimax theorem
* Nash's theorem
* Purification theorem
* Revelation principle
* Zermelo's theorem

Key
figures|

* Albert W. Tucker
* Amos Tversky
* Ariel Rubinstein
* Claude Shannon
* Daniel Kahneman
* David K. Levine
* David M. Kreps
* Donald B. Gillies
* Drew Fudenberg
* Eric Maskin
* Harold W. Kuhn
* Herbert Simon
* Hervé Moulin
* Jean Tirole
* Jean-François Mertens
* Jennifer Tour Chayes
* John Harsanyi
* John Maynard Smith
* Antoine Augustin Cournot
* John Nash
* John von Neumann
* Kenneth Arrow
* Kenneth Binmore
* Leonid Hurwicz
* Lloyd Shapley
* Melvin Dresher
* Merrill M. Flood
* Olga Bondareva
* Oskar Morgenstern
* Paul Milgrom
* Peyton Young
* Reinhard Selten
* Robert Axelrod
* Robert Aumann
* Robert B. Wilson
* Roger Myerson
* Samuel Bowles
* Suzanne Scotchmer
* Thomas Schelling
* William Vickrey

See also|

* All-pay auction
* Alpha–beta pruning
* Bertrand paradox
* Bounded rationality
* Combinatorial game theory
* Confrontation analysis
* Coopetition
* First-move advantage in chess
* Game mechanics
* Glossary of game theory
* List of game theorists
* List of games in game theory
* No-win situation
* Solving chess
* Topological game
* Tragedy of the commons
* Tyranny of small decisions

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