Skepticism about China remaining a global power

The flag of China.

China faces a number of serious intractable problems. A number of leading geopolitical analysts are pessimistic about China's remaining a global power. For the various reasons listed below, the American geopolitical analyst and author Peter Zeihan said in 2022, "I do not worry about China at all... I don't think that there is going to be a China for much longer."[1]

On December 22, 2022, Foreign Affairs magazine noted in their article China’s Dangerous Decline "...China is teetering on the edge of a cliff. Ten years of Xi’s “reforms” — widely characterized in the West as successful power plays—have made the country frail and brittle, exacerbating its underlying problems while giving rise to new ones. ...a growing number of Western analysts—including Michael Beckley, Jude Blanchette, Hal Brands, Robert Kaplan, Susan Shirk, and Fareed Zakaria—have begun to highlight this reality..."[2]

## Contents

* 1 China's weaknesses
* 2 China's decline and its effect on global desecularization
* 3 China and human rights violations
* 3.1 Atheistic, Chinese communism and torture
* 3.2 Atheistic China, political prisoners and forced labor in prisons
* 3.3 Atheistic China, political prisoners and forced labor in prisons
* 3.4 China and involuntary organ harvesting of prisoners
* 4 China and intellectual property theft
* 5 See also
* 6 References

## China's weaknesses[edit]

China banned Winnie-the-Pooh because of the similarities between Winnie-the-Pooh and Xi Jinping.

Xi Jinping is obese. See also: Atheism and obesity

1. Bad government. The Chinese communists are godless, corrupt, short-sighted and authoritarian (See: Chinese Communist Party). A cult of personality has developed around Xi Jinping and he has eliminated all significant political opposition so now he is surrounded by yes man. So the government is calcified around Xi Jinping's thoughts and less responsive to citizens' concerns and problems. See: Chinese Communist Party and Militant atheism and China and atheism and Atheism and morality and Atheism and leadership

Ian Bremmer is a partisan hack and the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the globalist political risk research and consulting firm based in New York City. He is a political scientist who has held positions at New York University, Columbia University, the EastWest Institute, the World Policy Institute, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and the Asia Society Policy Institute, where he has served as the first Harold J. Newman Distinguished Fellow in Geopolitics since 2015.

According to the Eurasia Group:

“  |  Xi Jinping now has a command of China's political system unrivaled since Mao with (very) few limits on his ability to advance his statist and nationalist policy agenda. But with no dissenting voices to challenge his views, Xi's ability to make big long-term mistakes is also unrivaled. That's a massive global challenge given China's outsized role in the world economy.

We see risks in three areas this year, all stemming from Maximum Xi. The ill-effects of centralized decision-making on public health will continue with the spread of Covid-19. Xi's drive for state control of China's economy will produce arbitrary decisions, policy volatility, and heightened uncertainty for a country already weakened by two years of extreme pandemic-mitigation efforts. Finally, Xi's nationalist views and assertive foreign policy will increasingly provoke resistance from the West and from China's Asian neighbors.[3]

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Corruption is so widespread in China that Wikipedia, an online encyclopedia founded by an atheist and agnostic, has an article entitled "Corruption in China".[4] On October 20, 2019, Wikipedia's Corruption in China article indicated, "Corruption in China post-1949 refers to the abuse of political power for private ends typically by members of the Chinese Communist Party, who hold the majority of power in the People's Republic of China."[5]

In addition, please see: Xi Jinping And The Challenge of Chinese Leadership by Peter Zeihan.

2. China has terrible age demographics. It has the fastest graying/aging population in the world (See: Peter Zeihan's demography series) which will severely hurt its economy (See: Atheism and fertility rates). According to Forbes magazine, as far as the fertility rate of China: "...the Total Fertility Rate (births per woman) dropped in 2021 to just 1.15, far below the 2.1 required for a stable population."[6] In 2022, the historian Niall Ferguson indicated that China's population is projected to drop by 50-75% by the end of the century.[7]

3. A high percentage of uneducated people.

4. Financial soundness lacking in society. Debt and real estate crises of a great magnitude. Opaque accounting system. While it is true that China has more tools than the West to address the matter of its debt crisis, too much debt is a drag on an economy no matter how the burden is distributed by its government.

In 2021, the geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan noted that capital flight out of China was at a record high and exceeded 1 trillion dollars a year.[8]

In 2023, China’s economy faces a perilous road to recovery. The country also has a local debt crisis and real estate crisis. And its capricious autocratic leadership is causing more people to say that China is uninvestible.

5. Too many inefficient state-owned enterprises

6. In addition to having a greying population with a subreplacement level of fertility, it has poor prospects to attract new people due to its repressive, surveillance/police state society. In addition, it has a population that does not like foreigners which makes immigration more difficult.

7. Besides having a poor reputation to its repressive society, it's starting to have a bad international reputation due to: debt trap projects to poor nations; wolf-warrior, aggressive foreign policy; human rights violations, unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft.

## China's decline and its effect on global desecularization[edit]

See also: Desecularization and Growth of global desecularization and Acceleration of 21st century desecularization and Causes of desecularization and Global atheism statistics

China has state atheism and the fall of the Chinese Communist Party due to economic and other societal problems would cause a large drop in the global atheist population (See: Future of atheism in China and East Asia and global desecularization and China and atheism and Collapse of atheism in the former Soviet Union and Atheism and leadership).

In some regions where the secular left has considerable influence, they are losing an increasing amount of their power (See: Decline of the secular left).

## China and human rights violations[edit]

See also: Atheism and human rights violations

### Atheistic, Chinese communism and torture[edit]

According to a 2012 Worldwide Independent Network/Gallup International Association (WIN/GIA) poll, 47% of Chinese people were convinced atheists, and a further 30% were not religious. In comparison, only 14% considered themselves to be religious.[9] See: China and atheism

The Chinese communist regime has used beatings, harassment and torture to suppress religion in China and continues to use these practices.[10]

### Atheistic China, political prisoners and forced labor in prisons[edit]

See also: Atheism and repressive prisons and Atheism and forced labor and Atheism and communism

According to CNN, hundreds (or perhaps thousands) of labor camps and forced labor prisons (called laogai) still exist in modern China.[11]

In 2016, the International Business Times reported: "A senior Chinese advisor on religious affairs has said the country should promote atheism throughout society, in remarks that appear to reflect a deepening campaign to reinforce traditional Marxist values in China — and could add to concern about official attitudes among believers in the country’s five officially recognized religions."[12]

According to CNN, hundreds (or perhaps thousands) of labor camps and forced labor prisons (called laogai) still exist in modern China.[13] The prisons house political prisoners and dissidents alongside dangerous criminals.

The Chinese government run media outlet Xinhua reported in early 2013 that the country plans to reform its "controversial re-education through labor system this year."[14]

See also:

* Atheism and repressive prisons

### Atheistic China, political prisoners and forced labor in prisons[edit]

See also: Atheism and repressive prisons and Atheism and forced labor and Atheism and communism

According to CNN, hundreds (or perhaps thousands) of labor camps and forced labor prisons (called laogai) still exist in modern China.[15] The prisons house political prisoners and dissidents alongside dangerous criminals.

The Chinese government run media outlet Xinhua reported in early 2013 that the country plans to reform its "controversial re-education through labor system this year."[16]

See also:

* Atheism and repressive prisons

### China and involuntary organ harvesting of prisoners[edit]

See also: China and involuntary organ harvesting

Several researchers — for example, Canadian human rights lawyer David Matas, former Canadian parliamentarian David Kilgour, and the investigative journalist Ethan Gutmann estimate that tens of thousands of Falun Gong prisoners in communist China have been killed to supply a financially lucrative trade in human organs and cadavers, and that these human rights abuses may be ongoing concern.[17]

## China and intellectual property theft[edit]

See also: Atheism and stealing

Intellectual property (IP) is knowledge that can be owned. Examples include copyrights, patents, trademarks and trade secrets.

According to the website China Law Blog:

“  |  The disappearance of Made in China 2025\. From 2015 to 2017, the Chinese government touted its Made in China 2025 program as its core policy for development of the Chinese economy. Due to pressure from the U.S., Europe and Japan, public discussion of the program has virtually ceased. Foreign opposition to this program has been based on the following two factors:

...The advances in technical expertise outlined in the program do not rely on Chinese domestic innovation. Rather, the program relies on forced technology transfer and IP theft.[18]

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The American Enterprise Institute reported in 2018: "In reports from 2013 and 2017 the independent Commission on the Theft of American Intellectual Property concluded that China was the chief culprit in the loss of between $250 and $600 billion annually from IP theft (patents, copyrights, trademarks, and trade secrets)."[19]

Bloomberg News declared concerning China and intellectual property theft: "A 2017 survey by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China found that 'visible progress' had been made around IP, but 51 percent of firms said enforcement was still inadequate."[20]

## See also[edit]

* Asian Century

Essays:

* The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future

* The future of secular leftism is bleak

## References[edit]

1. ↑ Energy at the End of the World | Part 4 | Demographics | Peter Zeihan
2. ↑ China's dangerous decline, Foreign Affairs magazine, December 22, 2022
3. ↑ Eurasia Group publishes "Top Risks" predictions for 2023, Yahoo Finance, January 3, 2023 at 6:00 AM EST
4. ↑ Corruption in China, Wikipedia
5. ↑ Corruption in China, Wikipedia
6. ↑ China’s Demographics: It Gets Worse, Forbes magazine, Oct 12, 2022
7. ↑ Niall Ferguson on the projected drop of China's population in the 21st century
8. ↑ Who will Dominate the Geopolitical System in this Decade? | Peter Zeihan | IEC 2021
9. ↑ Global Index of Religiosity and Atheism (July 27, 2012). PDF file (Worldwide Independent Network/Gallup International), p. 3. Republished at Worldwide Independent Network of Market Research and Opinion Poll website. Archived at Internet Archive website on May 24, 2013.
10. ↑ Multiple references:
* Amnesty International (March 23, 2000). "China: The crackdown on Falun Gong and other so-called 'heretical organizations'" (Amnesty International), republished at Refworld website. Retrieved March 17, 2010.
* Danilova, Maria (November 26, 2018). "Woman describes torture, beatings in Chinese detention camp" AP News website.
11. ↑ Labor camps reinforce China's totalitarian rule. Cnn.com (1984-10-09). Retrieved on 2013-03-20.
12. ↑ Senior Chinese Religious Advisor Calls For Promotion Of Atheism In Society, International Business Times
13. ↑ Labor camps reinforce China's totalitarian rule. Cnn.com (1984-10-09). Retrieved on 2013-03-20.
14. ↑ "China to reform re-education through labor system", Xinhua, January 8, 2013.
15. ↑ Labor camps reinforce China's totalitarian rule. Cnn.com (1984-10-09). Retrieved on 2013-03-20.
16. ↑ "China to reform re-education through labor system", Xinhua, January 8, 2013.
17. ↑ Review of: Ethan Gutmann, “The Slaughter: Mass Killings, Organ Harvesting and China’s Secret Solution to Its Dissident Problem”, (Prometheus Books, 2014).
18. ↑ The Top Ten Issues for China’s Economy by Steve Dickinson on December 27, 2018, China Law Blog
19. ↑ Chinese intellectual property theft: Time for show trials (but get our story straight) by Claude Barfield, August 27, 2018, AEIdeas
20. ↑ [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-05/what-s-intellectual-property-and-does-china-steal-it-quicktake What Is Intellectual Property, and Does China Steal It? By Grant Clark, December 4, 2018, Bloomberg News