Technological revolution

Short description: Period of rapid technological change

Axe made of iron, dating from Swedish Iron Age, found at Gotland, Sweden: the iron—as a new material—initiated a dramatic revolution in technology, economy, society, warfare and politics.

A technological revolution is a period in which one or more technologies is replaced by another, novel technology in a short amount of time. It is an era of accelerated technological progress characterized by new innovations whose rapid application and diffusion typically cause an abrupt change in society.

## Contents

* 1 Description
* 2 History
* 3 Structure of technological revolution
* 4 Potential future technological revolutions
* 5 Relation to "technological revolution" and "technical revolution"
* 6 List of intellectual, philosophical and technological revolutions (sectoral or universal)
* 7 See also
* 8 References

## Description

The Spinning Jenny and Spinning Mule (shown) greatly increased the productivity of thread manufacturing compared to the spinning wheel.

A Watt steam engine—the steam engine, fuelled primarily by coal, propelled the Industrial Revolution in United Kingdom and the world.

IBM Personal Computer XT in 1988—the PC was an invention that dramatically changed not only professional life, but personal life as well.

A technological revolution generally increases productivity and efficiency. It may involve material or ideological changes caused by the introduction of a device or system. Some examples of its potential impact are business management, education, social interactions, finance and research methodology; it is not limited strictly to technical aspects. The technological revolution rewrites the material conditions of human existence and can reshape culture. It can play a role as a trigger of a chain of various and unpredictable changes:[1]

> What distinguishes a technological revolution from a random collection of technology systems and justifies conceptualizing it as a revolution are two basic features:

> 1\. The strong interconnectedness and interdependence of the participating systems in their technologies and markets.

> 2\. The capacity to transform profoundly the rest of the economy (and eventually society).[2]

The consequences of a technological revolution are not necessarily positive. For example, innovations, such as the use of coal as an energy source, can have negative environmental impact and cause technological unemployment. Schumpeter described this contradictory nature of technological revolution, creative destruction.[3] The concept of technological revolution is based on the idea that technological progress is not linear but undulatory. Technological revolution can be

* Relation revolution (Social Relations, phones, Revolution played a big part in Relation)
* Sectoral (more technological changes in one sector, e.g. Green Revolution and Commercial Revolution)
* Universal (interconnected radical changes in more sectors, the universal technological revolution can be seen as a complex of several parallel sectoral technological revolutions, e.g. Second Industrial Revolution and Renaissance technological revolution)

The concept of universal technological revolutions is a key factor in the Neo-Schumpeterian theory of long economic waves/cycles[4] (Carlota Perez, Tessaleno Devezas, Daniel Šmihula and others).

## History

The most well-known example of a technological revolution was the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century, the scientific-technical revolution about 1950–1960, the Neolithic revolution, the Digital Revolution and so on. The notion of "technological revolution" is frequently overused, therefore it is not easy to define which technological revolutions having occurred during world history were really crucial and influenced not only one segment of human activity, but had a universal impact. One universal technological revolution should be composed of several sectoral technological revolutions (in science, industry, transport and the like).

We can identify several universal technological revolutions which occurred during the modern era in Western culture:[5]

* 1\. Financial-agricultural revolution (1600–1740)
* 2\. Industrial revolution (1780–1840)
* 3\. Technical revolution or Second Industrial Revolution (1870–1920)
* 4\. Scientific-technical revolution (1940–1970)
* 5\. Information and telecommunications revolution, also known as the Digital Revolution or Third Industrial Revolution (1975–2021)

Attempts to find comparable periods of well defined technological revolutions in the pre-modern era are highly speculative.[6] Probably one of the most systematic attempts to suggest a timeline of technological revolutions in pre-modern Europe was done by Daniel Šmihula:[7]

* A. Indo-European technological revolution (1900–1100 BC)
* B. Celtic and Greek technological revolution (700–200 BC)
* C. Germano-Slavic technological revolution (300–700 AD)
* D. Medieval technological revolution (930–1200 AD)
* E. Renaissance technological revolution (1340–1470 AD)

## Structure of technological revolution

Each revolution comprises the following engines for growth:

* New cheap inputs
* New products
* New processes

Every revolution utilizes something that is cheap. For instance, the Industrial Revolution had cheap coal for iron steam engines which led to production of Iron railways. The same applied in the technological revolution where there was cheap microelectronics for computers which thus progressed the internet. A combination of low-cost input and new infrastructures are at the core of each revolution to achieve their all pervasive impact. [8]

## Potential future technological revolutions

Further information: Philosophy:Emerging technologies and Fourth Industrial Revolution

After 2000 there became popular the idea that a sequence of technological revolutions is not over and in the forthcoming future we will witness the dawn of a new universal technological revolution. The main innovations should develop in the fields of nanotechnologies, alternative fuel and energy systems, biotechnologies, genetic engineering, new materials technologies and so on .[9]

The Second Machine Age is the term adopted in a 2014 book by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee. The industrial development plan of Germany began promoting the term Industry 4.0. In 2019, at the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Japan promoted another round of advancements called Society 5.0.[10][11]

The phrase Fourth Industrial Revolution was first introduced by Klaus Schwab, the executive chairman of the World Economic Forum, in a 2015 article in Foreign Affairs,[12] "Mastering the Fourth Industrial Revolution" was the theme of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2016 in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland. On October 10, 2016, the Forum announced the opening of its Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution in San Francisco.[13] This was also subject and title of Schwab's 2016 book.[14] Schwab includes in this fourth era technologies that combine hardware, software, and biology (cyber-physical systems),[15] and emphasizes advances in communication and connectivity. Schwab expects this era to be marked by breakthroughs in emerging technologies in fields such as robotics, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, quantum computing, biotechnology, the internet of things, the industrial internet of things (IIoT), decentralized consensus, fifth-generation wireless technologies (5G), 3D printing and fully autonomous vehicles.[16]

Jeremy Rifkin includes technologies like 5G, autonomous vehicles, Internet of Things, and renewable energy in the Third Industrial Revolution.[17]

While the standard belief among economists is that the sequence for technological revolutions is not over, an emerging group of economists beg to differ. Economist Robert Gordon holds the view that today’s inventions are simply not as radical as electricity and the internal combustion engine were. He believes that modern technology is not that innovative, and is far from creating a revolution. Three dimensional (3D) printing won’t affect large-scale manufacturing. Artificial intelligence and machine learning are nothing new. These technologies have been around at least since 2004 and have done nothing for growth which is a prerequisite for revolutions. It is obvious of course that nothing Gordon says foreshadows the possibility that something entirely unexpected, perhaps some previously unimagined combination of pre-existing technologies, will prove to be transformative. It is just his hunch that it won’t.[18] The hopes of a technological utopia are overblown in many regards. Innovation will only drag economic growth, rather than speed it up. As societies get richer they spend a greater portion of their income in the service industry, such as restaurant meals, in which productivity growth is meagre because automation is hard. Furthermore, the decline in reproduction is causing an ageing population which will result in low productivity and innovation all together. That combined with efforts to halt climate change will lead to a world where decarbonizing technology will become priority. We are far more likely to have a social revolution fueled by climate change than we are to having a technological one.[19]

## Relation to "technological revolution" and "technical revolution"

Sometimes the notion of "technological revolution" is used for the Second Industrial Revolution in the period about 1900, but in this case, the designation "technical revolution" would be more proper. When the notion of technical revolution is used in more general meaning it is almost identical with the technological revolution, but the technological revolution requires material changes in used tools, machines, energy sources, production processes. Technical revolution can be restricted to changes in management, organisation and so-called non-material technologies (e.g. a progress in mathematics or accounting).

## List of intellectual, philosophical and technological revolutions (sectoral or universal)

Technological revolution can cause the production-possibility frontier to shift outward and initiate economic growth.

Pre-Industrialization

* The Upper Paleolithic Revolution: the emergence of "high culture", new technologies and regionally distinct cultures (50,000–40,000 years ago).
* The Neolithic Revolution (perhaps 13,000 years ago), which formed the basis for human civilization to develop.
* The Renaissance technological revolution: the set of inventions during the Renaissance period, roughly the 14th through the 16th century.
* The Commercial Revolution: a period of European economic expansion, colonialism and mercantilism which lasted from approximately the 16th century until the early 18th century.
* The Price Revolution: a series of economic events from the second half of the 15th century to the first half of the 17th, the price revolution refers most specifically to the high rate of inflation that characterized the period across Western Europe.
* The Scientific Revolution: a fundamental transformation in scientific ideas around the 16th century.
* The British Agricultural Revolution (18th century), which spurred urbanization and consequently helped launch the Industrial Revolution.

Industrialization

* The First Industrial Revolution: the major shift of technological, socioeconomic and cultural conditions in the late 18th century and early 19th century that began in Britain and spread throughout the world.
* The Market Revolution: a drastic change in the manual labour system originating in the South of the United States (and soon moving to the North) and later spreading to the entire world (about 1800–1900).
* The Second Industrial Revolution (1871–1914).
* The Green Revolution (1945–1975): the use of industrial fertilizers and new crops greatly increased the world's agricultural output.
* The Third Industrial Revolution: the sweeping changes brought about by computing and communication technology, starting from circa 1950 with the creation of the first general-purpose electronic computers.
* The Information Revolution: the massive economic, social and technological changes resulting from the Digital Revolution (after 1960?).

## See also

* Accelerating change
* Automation
* Electrification
* Kondratiev wave
* Kranzberg's laws of technology
* List of emerging technologies
* Mass production
* Machine tool
* Mechanization
* Post-work society
* Productivity improving technologies (historical)
* Technological advancement
* Technological change
* Technological unemployment
* The War on Normal People
* The Future of Work and Death

## References

1. ↑ Klein, Maury(2008): The Technological Revolution, in The Newsletter of Foreign Policy Research Institute, Vol.13, No. 18. [1]
2. ↑ Perez, Carlota (2009): Technological revolutions and techno-economic paradigms., in Working Papers in Technology Governance and Economic Dynamics, Working Paper No. 20, (Norway and Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn) [2]
3. ↑ Perez, Carlota (2002). Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital. Edward Elgar Publishing. doi:10.4337/9781781005323. ISBN 978-1-78100-532-3.
4. ↑ , for example, Perez, Carlota (2009): Technological revolutions and techno-economic paradigms., in Working Papers in Technology Governance and Economic Dynamics, Working Paper No. 20, (Norway and Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn) [3]
5. ↑ based on: Šmihula, Daniel (2011): Long waves of technological innovations, Studia politica Slovaca, 2/2011, Bratislava, ISSN 1337-8163, pp. 50-69. [4]
6. ↑ for example: Drucker, Peter F. (1965): The First Technological Revolution and Its Lessons. [5]
7. ↑ Šmihula, Daniel (2011): Long waves of technological innovations, Studia Politica Slovaca, 2/2011, Bratislava, ISSN 1337-8163, pp. 50-69
8. ↑ Perez, C. (2010-01-01). "Technological revolutions and techno-economic paradigms" (in en). Cambridge Journal of Economics 34 (1): 185–202. doi:10.1093/cje/bep051. ISSN 0309-166X. http://hum.ttu.ee/wp/paper20.pdf.
9. ↑ Philip S. Anton, Richard Silberglitt, James Schneider (2001): The Global Technology Revolution - Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and Their Synergies with Information Technology by 2015., RAND, ISBN:0-8330-2949-5
10. ↑ Realizing Society 5.0 (promotional paper for Japan)
11. ↑ Modern society has reached its limits. Society 5.0 will liberate us (promotional article for Japan)
12. ↑ Schwab, Klaus (2015-12-12). "The Fourth Industrial Revolution". https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2015-12-12/fourth-industrial-revolution/.
13. ↑ "New Forum Center to Advance Global Cooperation on Fourth Industrial Revolution". October 10, 2016. https://www.weforum.org/press/2016/10/new-forum-center-to-advance-global-cooperation-on-fourth-industrial-revolution/.
14. ↑ Schwab, Klaus (2016). The Fourth Industrial Revolution. New York: Crown Publishing Group (published 2017). ISBN 9781524758875. https://books.google.com/books?id=ST_FDAAAQBAJ. Retrieved 2017-06-29. "Digital technologies [...] are not new, but in a break with the third industrial revolution, they are becoming more sophisticated and integrated and are, as a result, transforming societies and the global economy."
15. ↑ "The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means and how to respond". https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/.
16. ↑ Schwab, Klaus. "The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means, how to respond". https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/. "The possibilities of billions of people connected by mobile devices, with unprecedented processing power, storage capacity, and access to knowledge, are unlimited. And these possibilities will be multiplied by emerging technology breakthroughs in fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, 3-D printing, nanotechnology, biotechnology, materials science, energy storage, and quantum computing."
17. ↑ Jeremy Rifkin (2011). The Third Industrial Revolution: How Lateral Power is Transforming Energy, the Economy, and the World.
18. ↑ Banerjee, Abhijit (2019). Good Economics for Hard Times. Public Affairs. pp. 161-162. https://gdsnet.org/BanerjeeandDufloGoodEconomicsforHardtimes2019.pdf.
19. ↑ Leaders, The Economist. "Why a dawn of technological optimism is breaking". https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/01/16/why-a-dawn-of-technological-optimism-is-breaking.

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