Election results, 2020: Reverse-Pivot Counties

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2020 Election Analysis:
Pivot Counties

Presidential election
Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election
Retained • Boomerang

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Margins of victory

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Voter turnout

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Demographics

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Congressional elections
Pivot Counties by congressional district

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State legislative elections
Pivot Counties by state legislative district

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Other
Reverse-Pivot Counties

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Other year reports
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2020 Election Analysis Hub

Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016.

Reverse-Pivot Counties are the six counties nationwide that had the opposite pattern, voting for Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016 after voting for John McCain (R) in 2008 and Mitt Romney (R) in 2012.[1][2]

In 2020, all six Reverse-Pivot Counties again voted for the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden (D). Since 2008, margins of victory in Reverse-Pivot Counties have shifted, on average, 20.18 percentage points from Republican to Democrat.

The six Reverse Pivot-Counties have a median population of 785,915. They are all located in or near the metropolitan areas of Los Angeles (1), Atlanta (3), Baltimore (1), and Houston (1). Voter turnout in these counties was 76.05%, 6.75 percentage points higher than the national rate of 69.30%. Collectively, the number of votes cast in the six Reverse-Pivot Counties (4,015,613) represented 2.6% of all votes cast in the 2020 presidential election.

On this page, you will find:

* Key terms
* List of Reverse-Pivot Counties
* Margin of victory analysis
* Demographics of Reverse-Pivot Counties
* Voter turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties
* Reverse-Pivot Counties by legislative district

## Contents

* 1 Key terms
* 2 List of Reverse-Pivot Counties
* 3 Margin of victory analysis
* 3.1 Margin change since 2008
* 3.2 Presidential battelground states
* 3.3 Georgia
* 3.4 Texas
* 4 Demographics of Reverse-Pivot Counties
* 4.1 Overview
* 4.2 Demographics
* 5 Voter turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties
* 5.1 Turnout in 2020
* 5.2 Turnout change since 2008
* 6 Reverse-Pivot Counties by legislative district
* 7 Congressional districts
* 7.1 Overview
* 8 State legislative districts
* 8.1 Overall
* 8.2 State Senate districts
* 8.3 State House districts
* 8.4 See also
* 8.5 Footnotes

## Key terms[edit]

Ballotpedia uses the following terms when discussing Reverse-Pivot Counties and Pivot Counties. Following the 2020 presidential election, Pivot Counties were further differentiated based on whether they voted again for Trump (Retained Pivot Counties) or flipped to vote for Biden (Boomerang Pivot Counties). Categories are shown on the table below based on the presidential election results from 2008 to 2020.

Pivot County definitions by presidential election voting pattern, 2008-2020

Term  | 2008  | 2012  | 2016  | 2020
Reverse-Pivot
County | McCain | Romney | Clinton | Biden
Retained Pivot
County | Obama | Obama | Trump | Trump
Boomerang Pivot
County | Obama | Obama | Trump | Biden

## List of Reverse-Pivot Counties[edit]

See also: Presidential election, 2020

The table below lists the 2020 presidential election results in each of the six Reverse-Pivot Counties. It also includes historical margins of victory. In 2008 and 2012, these counties voted for the Republican presidential candidate. In 2016 and 2020, they voted for the Democratic candidate. Percentages and percentage points are the upper values with numerical vote totals and margins included in parentheses below.

List of Reverse-Pivot Counties, 2020

County  | State  | Election results, 2020  | Margins of victory
Biden  | Trump  | 2020  | 2016  | 2012  | 2008
Orange County | California | 53.48%
(814,009) | 44.44%
(676,498) | +9.03
(137,511) | +8.59
(102,813) | +6.23
(69,892) | +2.56
(29,506)
Cobb County | Georgia | 56.35%
(221,847) | 42.02%
(165,436) | +14.33
(56,411) | +2.16
(7,209) | +12.45
(38,598) | +9.43
(29,741)
Gwinnett County | Georgia | 58.45%
(241,994) | 40.19%
(166,400) | +18.26
(75,594) | +5.79
(19,164) | +9.22
(27,346) | +10.24
(29,721)
Henry County | Georgia | 59.71%
(73,443) | 39.24%
(48,259) | +20.48
(25,184) | +4.36
(4,333) | +3.30
(3,013) | +7.46
(6,590)
Anne Arundel County | Maryland | 55.82%
(172,823) | 41.28%
(127,821) | +14.53
(45,002) | +2.23
(6,016) | +0.08
(197) | +1.80
(4,667)
Fort Bend County | Texas | 54.70%
(195,552) | 44.12%
(157,718) | +10.58
(37,834) | +6.64
(17,395) | +6.83
(14,982) | +2.39
(4,838)

The map below shows the Reverse-Pivot Counties. The function in the bottom right corner can be used to zoom in more closely.

## Margin of victory analysis[edit]

Overall, Biden had a larger margin of victory in each of the six Reverse-Pivot Counties compared to Clinton's results in 2016, continuing a shift towards Democrats.

The table below shows a comparison of the average 2020 margins of victory in the six Reverse-Pivot Counties with historical margins in the same counties from 2008 to 2016. The first column shows Biden's performance in 2020 followed by Clinton's in 2016, Romney's in 2012, and McCain's in 2008.

Average margins of victory in the six Reverse-Pivot Counties as percentage points

2008
(McCain)  | 2012
(Romney)  | 2016
(Clinton)  | 2020
(Biden)
+5.64 | +6.35 | +4.96 | +14.54

### Margin change since 2008[edit]

Since 2008, when McCain won these counties, margins of victory have shifted 20.18 percentage points from Republicans to Democrats, on average. Gwinnett County, Georgia, had the largest such change from R+10.24 in 2008 to D+18.26 in 2020, a shift of 28.50 percentage points. Orange County, California, had the smallest change from R+2.56 in 2008 to D+9.03 in 2020, a shift of 11.59 percentage points. The chart below shows the difference between 2008 and 2020 margins of victory in the six Reverse-Pivot Counties.

### Presidential battelground states[edit]

See also: Presidential battleground states, 2020

Four Reverse-Pivot Counties were located in two states identified by Ballotpedia as presidential battlegrounds during the 2020 election: Georgia (3) and Texas (1). Battleground states are states that have split support for Democratic and Republican candidates in recent presidential election cycles.

In order to conduct this analysis, vote totals for all counties in a state were taken into consideration. This includes totals in Reverse, Retained, and Boomerang Pivot Counties. The remaining counties in these states were categorized as follows:

* Solid Democratic: voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 2008
* Solid Republican: voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 2008
* Other: voted in some other pattern than those described above

### Georgia[edit]

See also: Presidential election in Georgia, 2020

In 2020, Georgia had five Retained Pivot Counties, three Reverse-Pivot Counties, 27 solid Democratic counties, 123 solid Republican counties , and one county with a different voting pattern.

Biden won Georgia in 2020 by 0.2 percentage points. He saw a margin change of 5.3 percentage points compared to 2016, flipping the state which had previously voted for Trump. Biden's largest margin change came in the three Reverse-Pivot Counties—Cobb, Gwinnett, and Henry—which he won by 16.9 percentage points compared to 4.0 in 2016, a 12.9 point shift. Biden also expanded the margin in Solid Democratic counties and narrowed Trump's margin in Solid Republican counties. Trump expanded his margin in the state's Retained Pivot Counties and in the one county with a different voting pattern.

The table below compares margins in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Percentages show the share of the vote received by a candidate. Margins and changes are shown as changes in percentage points. The overall winner of a given category can be found under the "2020" data. The "Percentage point change" section shows changes in vote share and in margins. Figures were calculated by combining the vote totals across all counties of a given category and may not equal 100% due to rounding. Click [show] beneath the table to view vote totals.

Georgia presidential election results by county category, 2016-2020

Year  | #  | 2016 | 2020 | Percentage point change
Clinton | Trump | Third party | Margin | Biden | Trump | Third party | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Third party | Margin
Retained | 5 | 47.5% | 50.8% | 1.7% | R+3.3 | 46.4% | 52.8% | 0.8% | R+6.4 | -1.1 | +1.9 | -0.8 | R+3.1
Reverse | 3 | 49.2% | 45.2% | 5.5% | D+4.0 | 57.7% | 40.8% | 1.4% | D+16.9 | +8.5 | -4.4 | -4.1 | D+12.9
Solid Dem. | 27 | 67.1% | 28.6% | 4.3% | D+38.5 | 71.2% | 27.6% | 1.2% | D+43.6 | +4.1 | -1.0 | -3.2 | D+5.1
Solid Repub. | 123 | 26.5% | 69.9% | 3.6% | R+43.3 | 29.8% | 68.9% | 1.2% | R+39.1 | +3.3 | -0.9 | -2.4 | D+4.3
Other | 1 | 50.6% | 48.0% | 1.4% | D+2.6 | 48.8% | 50.5% | 0.7% | R+1.8 | -1.8 | +2.5 | -0.7 | R+4.4
All | 159 | 45.3% | 50.4% | 4.2% | R+5.1 | 49.5% | 49.3% | 1.2% | D+0.2 | +4.1 | -1.2 | -3.0 | D+5.3
Georgia presidential election vote totals by county category, 2016-2020

Year  | #  | 2016 | 2020 | Change
Clinton | Trump | Third party | Margin | Biden | Trump | Third party | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Third party | Margin
Retained | 5 | 10,054 | 10,749 | 351 | R+695 | 11,026 | 12,536 | 201 | R+1,510 | +972 | +1,787 | -150 | R+815
Reverse | 3 | 376,331 | 345,625 | 42,419 | D+30,706 | 537,284 | 380,095 | 13,370 | D+157,189 | +160,953 | +34,470 | -29,049 | D+126,483
Solid Dem. | 27 | 990,797 | 421,805 | 63,851 | D+568,992 | 1,233,142 | 477,751 | 20,198 | D+755,391 | +242,345 | +55,946 | -43,653 | D+186,399
Solid Repub. | 123 | 496,050 | 1,306,434 | 67,628 | R+810,384 | 686,973 | 1,586,072 | 28,385 | R+899,099 | +190,923 | +279,638 | -39,243 | R+88,715
Other | 1 | 4731 | 4491 | 129 | D+240 | 5208 | 5400 | 75 | R+192 | +477 | +909 | -54 | R+432
All | 159 | 1,877,963 | 2,089,104 | 174,378 | R+211,141 | 2,473,633 | 2,461,854 | 62,229 | D+11,779 | +595,670 | +372,750 | -112,149 | D+222,920

For Biden, 40.7% of his new votes in 2020 came from Solid Democratic counties followed by Solid Republican counties with 32.1%. For Trump, 75.0% of his new votes in 2020 came from Solid Republican counties followed by Solid Democratic counties at 15.0%. Reverse-Pivot Counties accounted for 27.0% of Biden's new votes compared to 9.2% for Trump.

Retained Pivot Counties accounted for 0.4% of Biden's vote totals and 0.5% of Trump's. Reverse-Pivot Counties accounted for 21.7% of Biden's vote total and 15.4% of Trump's.

The table below shows how much of a candidate's vote total came from a particular county category. Data under "New votes, 2020" shows the percentage of a candidate's new votes by county category compared to 2016 vote totals.

Percentage of votes by county category in Georgia's 2016 and 2020 presidential elections

Year  | #  | 2016 | 2020 | New votes, 2020
Clinton | Trump | Biden | Trump | Democratic
votes | Republican
votes
Total votes | 159 | 1,877,963 | 2,089,104 | 2,473,633 | 2,461,854 | +595,670 | +372,750
Retained | 5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5%
Reverse | 3 | 20.0% | 16.5% | 21.7% | 15.4% | 27.0% | 9.2%
Solid Dem. | 27 | 52.8% | 20.2% | 49.9% | 19.4% | 40.7% | 15.0%
Solid Repub. | 123 | 26.4% | 62.5% | 27.8% | 64.4% | 32.1% | 75.0%
Other | 1 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2%

### Texas[edit]

See also: Presidential election in Texas, 2020

In 2020, Texas had one Retained Pivot County, one Reverse-Pivot County, 18 solid Democratic counties, 223 solid Republican counties, and 11 counties that had a different voting pattern.

Trump received 52.1% of the statewide vote, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from his 2016 results. Biden received 46.5% of the statewide vote, a 3.3 point increase from Clinton's 43.2% in 2016. Overall, Biden narrowed Trump's margin by 3.4 percentage points in 2020.

Trump increased his vote share in the one Retained Pivot County by 1.3 percentage points and in Solid Democratic counties by 1.7 points. His vote share decreased in all other county categories.

Biden's vote share increased in all county categories. His largest margin change—+8.4 percentage points—came from the 11 counties with different voting patterns than Solid and Pivot Counties. Eight of these counties flipped to Trump and three flipped to Biden.

The table below compares margins in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Percentages show the share of the vote received by a candidate. Margins and changes are shown as changes in percentage points. The overall winner of a given category can be found under the "2020" data. The "Percentage point change" section shows changes in vote share and in margins. Figures were calculated by combining the vote totals across all counties of a given category and may not equal 100% due to rounding. Click [show] beneath the table to view vote totals.

Texas presidential election results by county category, 2016-2020

Year  | #  | 2016 | 2020 | Percentage point change
Clinton | Trump | Third party | Margin | Biden | Trump | Third party | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Third party | Margin
Retained | 1 | 48.4% | 48.9% | 2.6% | R+0.5 | 48.6% | 50.2% | 1.2% | R+1.6 | +0.2 | +1.3 | -1.5 | R+1.1
Reverse | 1 | 51.4% | 44.8% | 3.8% | D+6.6 | 54.7% | 44.1% | 1.2% | D+10.6 | +3.3 | -0.7 | -2.6 | D+4.0
Solid Dem. | 18 | 59.3% | 35.9% | 4.8% | D+23.3 | 61.0% | 37.6% | 1.5% | D+23.4 | +1.7 | +1.6 | -3.3 | D+0.1
Solid Repub. | 223 | 27.3% | 68.6% | 4.1% | R+41.4 | 31.2% | 67.4% | 1.4% | R+36.2 | +3.9 | -1.2 | -2.7 | D+5.2
Other | 11 | 43.5% | 50.9% | 5.6% | R+7.4 | 49.6% | 48.6% | 1.7% | D+1.0 | +6.1 | -2.3 | -3.9 | D+8.4
All | 254 | 43.2% | 52.2% | 4.5% | R+9.0 | 46.5% | 52.1% | 1.5% | R+5.6 | +3.3 | -0.1 | -3.0 | D+3.4
Texas presidential election vote totals by county category, 2016-2020

Year  | #  | 2016 | 2020 | Change
Clinton | Trump | Third party | Margin | Biden | Trump | Third party | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Third party | Margin
Retained | 1 | 42,443 | 42,862 | 2,313 | R+419 | 46,073 | 47,570 | 1,116 | R+1,497 | +3,630 | +4,708 | -1,197 | R+1,078
Reverse | 1 | 134,686 | 117,291 | 10,089 | D+17,395 | 195,552 | 157,718 | 4,244 | D+37,834 | +60,866 | +40,427 | -5,845 | D+20,439
Solid Dem. | 18 | 2,201,349 | 1,334,561 | 178,871 | D+866,788 | 2,846,123 | 1,753,302 | 69,593 | D+1,092,821 | +644,774 | +418,741 | -109,278 | D+226,033
Solid Repub. | 223 | 1,067,538 | 2,685,476 | 159,509 | R+1,617,938 | 1,531,528 | 3,304,794 | 68,461 | R+1,773,266 | +463,990 | +619,318 | -91,048 | R+155,328
Other | 11 | 431852 | 504857 | 55529 | R+73,005 | 639850 | 626963 | 22169 | D+12,887 | +207,998 | +122,106 | -33,360 | D+85,892
All | 254 | 3,877,868 | 4,685,047 | 406,311 | R+807,179 | 5,259,126 | 5,890,347 | 165,583 | R+631,221 | +1,381,258 | +1,205,300 | -240,728 | D+175,958

Solid Republican counties made up 51.4% of Trump's new votes in 2020 and Solid Democratic counties made up 46.7% of Biden's.

The one Retained Pivot County accounted for 0.4% and 0.3% of Trump's and Biden's respective vote total. Trump received 2.7% of his vote total from the one Reverse-Pivot County, which also made up 3.7% of Biden's total.

The table below shows how much of a candidate's vote total came from a particular county category. Data under "New votes, 2020" shows the percentage of a candidate's new votes by county category compared to 2016 vote totals.

Percentage of votes by county category in Texas' 2016 and 2020 presidential elections

Year  | #  | 2016 | 2020 | New votes, 2020
Clinton | Trump | Biden | Trump | Democratic
votes | Republican
votes
Total votes | 254 | 3,877,868 | 4,685,047 | 5,259,126 | 5,890,347 | +1,381,258 | +1,205,300
Retained | 1 | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4%
Reverse | 1 | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.4%
Solid Dem. | 18 | 56.8% | 28.5% | 54.1% | 29.8% | 46.7% | 34.7%
Solid Repub. | 223 | 27.5% | 57.3% | 29.1% | 56.1% | 33.6% | 51.4%
Other | 11 | 11.1% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 15.1% | 10.1%

## Demographics of Reverse-Pivot Counties[edit]

See also: Demographics of the 206 Pivot Counties

### Overview[edit]

The six Reverse Pivot-Counties have a median population of 785,915. They are all located in or near the metropolitan areas of Los Angeles (1), Atlanta (3), Baltimore (1), and Houston (1).

On average, Reverse-Pivot Counties tend to have smaller non-Hispanic white and larger Black and Asian populations compared to the nationwide averages. Economically, Reverse-Pivot Counties tend to have higher median household incomes and lower rates of persons in poverty compared to nationwide averages.

### Demographics[edit]

The tables below show 2020 demographic data for Reverse-Pivot Counties compared to nationwide averages. Tables for individual counties show county averages compared to nationwide and statewide averages.[3]

* United States: national averages.[4]
* Average: an average of demographic numbers or percentages across each of the Reverse-Pivot Counties. This value is not a calculation of demographics across the populations of these counties.
* # of ... above: the number of Pivot Counties, Retained or Boomerang, with a higher number or percentage than the national average.

Click "Show more" to view demographic comparisons between Reverse, Retained, and Boomerang Pivot Counties

Show more

Reverse-Pivot Counties are larger than both Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties with an average estimated county population of 1,082,928 compared to 62,980 for Retained and 186,852 for Boomerang Pivot Counties. All six are located in or near the metropolitan areas of Los Angeles (1), Atlanta (3), Baltimore (1), and Houston (1).

Reverse-Pivot Counties also tend to have larger Black, Asian, and Hispanic or Latino populations compared to Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties. Economically, Reverse-Pivot Counties tend to have higher median household incomes and lower rates of persons in poverty compared to Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties.

The tables below show 2020 demographic data for Reverse-Pivot Counties compared to that of Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties and demographic data for each of the six Reverse-Pivot Counties.[3]

* United States: national averages.[5]
* Average: an average of demographic numbers or percentages across each of the Pivot County categories. This value is not a calculation of demographics across the populations of these counties.
* Median: the median figure for each of the Pivot County categories.
* # of ... above: the number of Pivot Counties, Retained or Boomerang, with a higher number or percentage than the national average.

## Voter turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties[edit]

See also: Voter turnout in Pivot Counties

### Turnout in 2020[edit]

Voter turnout in the 2020 presidential election was 69.30% nationwide. In the six Reverse-Pivot Counties, turnout was 76.05%, 6.75 percentage points higher than the national rate. Collectively, the number of votes cast in the six Reverse-Pivot Counties (4,015,613) represented 2.6% of all votes cast in the 2020 presidential election.

The table below shows the turnout rates, votes cast, and voting-age populations nationwide and for all six Reverse-Pivot Counties. Data under "Total" is calculated across the entire population. Data under "Average" and "Median" is an average and median of each county.

Turnout figures by Pivot County category, 2020

Figure  | Nationwide[6] | Reverse
Total
Turnout | 69.30% | 76.05%
Votes cast | 156,957,242 | 4,015,613
Voting age population | 226,488,925 | 5,280,414
Average
Turnout | 66.25% | 76.70%
Votes cast | 62,378 | 519,999
Voting age population | 73,679 | 686,047
Median
Turnout | 66.04% | 77.19%
Votes cast | 12,543 | 375,621
Voting age population | 19,825 | 478,088

The table below shows turnout data for each of the six Reverse-Pivot Counties.

### Turnout change since 2008[edit]

Nationwide, voter turnout increased by 8.26 percentage points compared to 2016, reaching its highest level since 1900.[7] Turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties exceeded the nationwide change by 6.55 percentage points, increasing by 14.81 percentage points from 2016. Reverse-Pivot Counties' collectively turnout of 76.05% is the furthest these counties have been from the nationwide turnout rate since at least 2008.

The table below shows nationwide and Reverse-Pivot County turnout from 2008 to 2020. Percentage point changes in the "Change" columns reflect the change between the column immediately to its left and right.

Total turnout changes by Pivot County category, 2008-2020

| 2008  | 2012  | 2016  | 2020
Turnout  | Change  | Turnout  | Change  | Turnout  | Change  | Turnout
Reverse | 66.66% | -3.92 | 62.74% | -1.50 | 61.24% | +14.81 | 76.05%
United States | 63.07% | -3.07 | 60.00% | +1.04 | 61.04% | +8.26 | 69.30%

As shown in the chart below, in 2020, turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties reached its highest level since at least 2008 when these counties voted for McCain. Turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties decreased over the following two presidential elections, reaching its lowest point in 2016 when these counties voted for Clinton. In each of the four presidential elections from 2008 to 2020, turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties exceeded nationwide turnout rates by an average of 3.27 percentage points.

The table below shows changes in voter turnout in each of the six Reverse-Pivot Counties from 2008 to 2020.

Click "Show more" to view the above information compared alongside data from Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties

Show more

### Comparison to Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties[edit]

#### Turnout in 2020[edit]

Voter turnout in the 2020 presidential election was 69.25% nationwide. In the six Reverse-Pivot Counties, turnout was 76.05%, 6.80 percentage points higher than the national rate. This turnout rate was 8.24 percentage points higher than that in Retained Pivot Counties and 4.43 percentage points higher than that in Boomerang Pivot Counties.

The table below shows the turnout rates, votes cast, and voting-age populations for all six Reverse-Pivot Counties, the 181 Retained Pivot Counties, and the 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Data under "Total" is calculated across the entire population. Data under "Average" and "Median" is an average and median of each Pivot County.

Turnout figures by Pivot County category, 2020

Figure  | Nationwide[8] | Reverse  | Retained  | Boomerang
Total
Turnout | 69.30% | 76.05% | 67.81% | 71.62%
Votes cast | 156,957,242 | 4,015,613 | 5,852,204 | 2,561,096
Voting age population | 226,488,925 | 5,280,414 | 8,630,835 | 3,575,785
Average
Turnout | 66.25% | 76.70% | 67.17% | 70.58%
Votes cast | 62,378 | 519,999 | 32,333 | 102,444
Voting age population | 73,679 | 686,047 | 47,684 | 143,031
Median
Turnout | 66.04% | 77.19% | 68.51% | 70.76%
Votes cast | 12,543 | 375,621 | 15,340 | 79,409
Voting age population | 19,825 | 478,088 | 20,445 | 123,880

#### Turnout change since 2008[edit]

Nationwide, voter turnout increased by 8.26 percentage points compared to 2016, reaching its highest level since 1900.[7] Turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties exceeded the nationwide change, increasing by 14.81 percentage points compared to 2016, more than twice the rate of change in Retained (+6.89) and Boomerang (+6.93) Pivot Counties.

The table below shows turnout by Pivot County category and the overall U.S. turnout from 2008 to 2020. Percentage point changes in the "Change" columns reflect the change between the column immediately to its left and right.

Total turnout changes by Pivot County category, 2008-2020

| 2008  | 2012  | 2016  | 2020
Turnout  | Change  | Turnout  | Change  | Turnout  | Change  | Turnout
Reverse | 66.66% | -3.92 | 62.74% | -1.50 | 61.24% | +14.81 | 76.05%
Retained | 63.31% | -3.41 | 59.90% | +1.01 | 60.91% | +6.90 | 67.81%
Boomerang | 66.44% | -1.48 | 64.96% | -0.27 | 64.69% | +6.93 | 71.62%
United States | 63.07% | -3.07 | 60.00% | +1.04 | 61.04% | +8.26 | 69.30%

As shown in the chart below, in 2020, turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties reached its highest level since at least 2008 when these counties voted for McCain. Turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties decreased over the following two presidential elections, reaching its lowest point in 2016 when these counties voted for Clinton.

## Reverse-Pivot Counties by legislative district[edit]

# Congressional districts[edit]

### Overview[edit]

See also: Pivot Counties by congressional district

There are 20 U.S. House districts containing Reverse-Pivot counties. Following the 2020 elections, Republicans flipped two of these districts, both of which had been flipped by Democrats in the 2018 elections. Since 2016, Democrats have gained a net four U.S. House districts containing Reverse-Pivot counties.

The table below shows a comparison between partisan control of these 20 U.S. House districts from 2016 to 2020. The rightmost column shows the net change in partisan control between 2016 and 2020.

Partisan control of Congressional districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties, 2016-2020

Party  | 2016  | 2018  | 2020  | Net change
from 2016
Democratic | 10 | 16 | 14 | +4
Republican | 10 | 4 | 6 | -4

The map below shows the outcome of U.S. House elections in the congressional districts containing Pivot Counties from 2016 to 2020.

Hover over each district to view its Pivot Counties and party control from 2016 to 2020.

Click "Show more" to view the full list of U.S. House districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties.

Show more

### List of Congressional districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties[edit]

The table below lists all congressional districts that encompass all or part of at least one Reverse-Pivot County. Additionally, the table shows the winning party in each district's U.S. House elections from 2016 to 2020.

All Reverse-Pivot Counties voted for Biden in 2020. Counties that span multiple districts are repeated and listed alongside each applicable district.

List of congressional districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties, 2020

District  | Winning party, 2016  | Winning party, 2018  | Winning party, 2020  | Reverse-Pivot Counties
California
District 38 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic | Orange
District 39 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Republican
District 45 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 46 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 47 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 48 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Republican
District 49 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Democratic
Georgia
District 03 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican | Henry
District 04 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic | Gwinnett
District 06 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Democratic | Cobb
District 07 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Democratic | Gwinnett
District 10 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican | Gwinnett
Henry
District 11 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican | Cobb
District 13 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic | Cobb
Henry
Maryland
District 02 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic | Anne Arundel
District 03 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 04 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 05 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
Texas
District 09 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic | Fort Bend
District 22 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican

# State legislative districts[edit]

### Overall[edit]

See also: Pivot Counties by state legislative district

The chart and table below show the change in partisan control of all state Senate and House seats in districts containing a Pivot County. The totals for each year show the partisan control of each seat following the given year's regularly-scheduled election regardless of whether the seat was up for election that year.

Partisan control of state legislative seats in districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties

| Partisan control after 2016  | Partisan control after 2018  | Partisan control after 2020  | Net change
from 2016
Democratic | 39 | 53 | 58 | +19
Republican | 56 | 42 | 37 | -19
Total seats | 95 | 95 | 95 | -

### State Senate districts[edit]

The chart and table below show the change in partisan control of all state Senate seats in districts containing a Reverse-Pivot County from 2016 to 2020. The totals for each year show the partisan control of each seat following the given year's regularly-scheduled election regardless of whether the seat was up for election that year.

Partisan control of state Senate seats in districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties

| Partisan control after 2016  | Partisan control after 2018  | Partisan control after 2020  | Net change
from 2016
Democratic | 12 | 15 | 18 | +6
Republican | 16 | 13 | 10 | -6
Total seats | 28 | 28 | 28 | -

Click "Show more" to view the full list of state Senate districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties

Show more

#### List of state Senate districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties[edit]

The table below lists all state Senate districts that encompass all or part of at least one Reverse-Pivot County. Additionally, the table shows the partisan control of each district following even-year elections from 2016 to 2020.

Cells shaded a darker gray indicate that there was not a regularly-scheduled election that year. The contents of these cells show the partisan affiliation of the senator representing the district at that time.

All Reverse-Pivot Counties voted for Biden in 2020. Counties that span multiple districts are repeated and listed alongside each applicable district.

List of state Senate districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties, 2020

District  | Winning party, 2016  | Winning party, 2018  | Winning party, 2020  | Reverse-Pivot Counties
California
District 29 |  Democratic |  Republican[9] |  Democratic | Orange
District 32 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 34 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 36 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 37 |  Republican |  Republican |  Democratic
Georgia
District 05 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic | Gwinnett
District 06 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Democratic | Cobb
District 09 |  Republican |  Republican |  Democratic | Gwinnett
District 10 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic | Henry
District 14 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican | Cobb
District 17 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican | Henry
District 32 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican | Cobb
District 33 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 37 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 38 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 40 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Democratic | Gwinnett
District 41 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 45 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 48 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 55 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
Maryland
District 21 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic | Anne Arundel
District 30 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 31 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 32 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 33 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
Texas
District 13 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic | Fort Bend
District 17 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 18 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican

### State House districts[edit]

The chart and table below show the change in partisan control of all state House seats in districts containing a Reverse-Pivot County from 2016 to 2020. The totals for each year show the partisan control of each seat following the given year's regularly-scheduled election regardless of whether the seat was up for election that year.

Partisan control of state House seats in districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties

| Partisan control after 2016  | Partisan control after 2018  | Partisan control after 2020  | Net change
from 2016
Democratic | 27 | 38 | 40 | +13
Republican | 40 | 29 | 27 | -13
Total seats | 67 | 67 | 67 | -

Click "Show more" to view the full list of state House districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties

Show more

#### List of state House districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties[edit]

The table below lists all state House districts that encompass all or part of at least one Reverse-Pivot County. Additionally, the table shows the partisan control of each district following even-year elections from 2016 to 2020.

Cells shaded a darker gray indicate that there was not a regularly-scheduled election that year. The contents of these cells show the partisan affiliation of the senator representing the district at that time.

All Reverse-Pivot Counties voted for Biden in 2020. Counties that span multiple districts are repeated and listed alongside each applicable district.

List of state House districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties, 2020

District  | Winning party, 2016  | Winning party, 2018  | Winning party, 2020  | Reverse-Pivot Counties
California
District 55 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican | Orange
District 65 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 68 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 69 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 72 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 73 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 74 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Democratic
Georgia
District 34 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican | Cobb
District 35 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 36 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 37 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 38 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 39 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 40 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 41 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 42 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 43 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 44 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 45 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 46 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 53 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 61 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 73 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican | Henry
District 76 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 78 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 81 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic | Gwinnett
District 90 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic | Henry
District 93 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic | Gwinnett
District 94 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 95 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 96 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 97 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 98 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 99 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 100 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 101 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 102 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 103 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 104 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 105 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 106 |  Republican |  Republican |  Democratic
District 107 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 108 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 109 |  Republican |  Republican |  Democratic | Henry
District 110 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 111 |  Republican |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 114 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican | Gwinnett
District 130 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican | Henry
Maryland
District 21 |  Democratic
Democratic
Democratic |  Democratic
Democratic
Democratic |  Democratic
Democratic
Democratic | Maryland
District 30A |  Democratic
Republican |  Democratic
Democratic |  Democratic
Democratic
District 30B |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 31A |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 31B |  Republican
Republican |  Republican
Republican |  Republican
Republican
District 32 |  Democratic
Democratic
Democratic |  Democratic
Democratic
Democratic |  Democratic
Democratic
Democratic
District 33 |  Republican
Republican
Republican |  Republican
Republican
Democratic |  Republican
Republican
Democratic
Texas
District 26 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican | Fort Bend
District 27 |  Democratic |  Democratic |  Democratic
District 28 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican
District 85 |  Republican |  Republican |  Republican

## See also[edit]

* Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election
* Retained Pivot Counties
* Boomerang Pivot Counties
* Reverse-Pivot Counties
* Margins of victory analysis
* Voter turnout in Pivot Counties
* Demographics of Pivot Counties
* Presidential election, 2020

## Footnotes[edit]

1. ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
2. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 U.S. Census Bureau, "QuickFacts," accessed Nov. 23, 2020
4. ↑ Averages for the United States, used in population estimates and the number of veterans, were calculated using 3,143 counties or county-level equivalents.
5. ↑ Averages for the United States, used in population estimates and the number of veterans, were calculated using 3,143 counties or county-level equivalents.
6. ↑ Nationwide calculations were found using voting and census data from the 3,074 counties included in this analysis. These totals exclude results in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 Cite error: Invalid `<ref>` tag; no text was provided for refs named `history`
8. ↑ Nationwide calculations were found using voting and census data from the 3,074 counties included in this analysis. These totals exclude results in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
9. ↑ There was no regularly-scheduled election for District 29 in 2018. Incumbent Sen. Josh Newman (D) was recalled resulting in a June 5 special election won by Ling-Ling Chang (R).

v • e

Pivot Counties, 2020

Presidential election|

Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election: Retained • Boomerang
Margins of victory • Voter turnout • Demographics

Congressional elections|

Pivot Counties by congressional district

State legislative elections|

Pivot Counties by state legislative district

Other|

Reverse-Pivot Counties

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2016 reports|

Pivot Counties • Voter turnout • Demographics • Historical voting patterns • Reverse-Pivot Counties

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