U.S. House battleground districts, 2014

## Contents

* 1 Key terms
* 2 Existing coverage
* 2.1 Political spending versus results
* 2.2 Projections versus results
* 2.3 2012 moneymaker districts
* 2.3.1 What is a "moneymaker district?"
* 2.3.1.1 Why?
* 2.3.2 The true cost of moneymakers
* 2.3.3 $39,640,616 better spent
* 3 Ballotpedia's five criteria for “most competitive”
* 4 The 26 "Most Competitive Districts in 2014"
* 4.1 Will the battlegrounds change?
* 4.1.1 October 2013
* 4.1.1.1 June 2014 Removal
* 4.1.2 December 2013
* 4.1.3 January 2014
* 4.1.4 July 2014
* 4.2 How will this shape our coverage?
* 4.2.1 Battleground badges
* 4.3 Our goals for this study
* 4.4 2014 results
* 4.5 Upsets
* 4.6 Expected seat changes
* 5 Other initial 2014 predictions and targets
* 5.1 Cook Political Report
* 5.2 Sabato's Crystal Ball
* 5.3 FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2014
* 5.4 Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
* 5.5 National Republican Congressional Committee
* 5.5.1 NRCC targets
* 6 See also
* 7 Footnotes

By Sarah Rosier and the Congress team

Voters remembered the government shutdown, the trouble surrounding the Healthcare.gov website and other issues as they headed to the polls during 2014’s midterm election cycle. From the beginning, tight races were shaping up. Some were truly competitive; others were incorrectly labeled as such. Why? “Battleground Districts” is a title that helps media pull in viewers and readers. It also boosts candidates’ fundraising efforts.

Every campaign cycle, Ballotpedia sifts through the noise and helps readers filter the hype. Leading up to election day, our list of Battleground Districts was based on real numbers and trends. And one trend in particular stood out: Incumbency is king and gerrymandering has left only a few handfuls of districts truly competitive.

In the first edition of Ballotpedia's battleground study, we sought to provides an unfiltered look at the races with the lowest likely margins of victory, as well as those moneymaking districts that raised lots of cash because they were mislabeled Battleground Districts.

See The 26 "Most Competitive Districts in 2014"

The purple districts on the Census district map were those found to be competitive in Ballotpedia's study.

## Key terms[edit]

Margin of victory (MOV)  | Moneymaker districts

|

Margin of victory (MOV) is the measure of the winner's percentage of the vote won in an election (in this case, a House race) minus the runner-up candidate’s percentage of the vote.  |  A district that is labeled as competitive prior to the election, but post-election analysis showed they were not competitive (MOV of 10 percentage points and higher). These districts, often because of the competitive label, raise more money for the campaigns than other districts.

## Existing coverage[edit]

In 2012, $3,664,141,430 was spent on congressional races, close to $1 billion more than on the presidential race. The average amount the winner of a House of Representatives election spent was $1,567,293. The average loser in a general election spent $688,632. This means that the average House race in 2012 cost general election candidates $2,128,629. However, these numbers skyrocket when a campaign is labeled competitive.[1]

The Cook Political Report, edited and published by Charlie Cook, is one of the most respected race rankings, and one we use as a data point for Ballotpedia. Cook classified 85 districts as competitive, or as having the possibility to become competitive, in their last projections before the election. Despite the high number of races that fell under these labels, only 30 races had a margin of victory (MOV) of less than five percent in 2012.[2]

Although Cook is used here as a barometer for outside battleground ratings, we could have easily applied this example to Sabato's Crystal Ball, FairVote Monopoly Politics or the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, as seen in the final section of this report where we compare 2014 coverage.

Considering the amount of money spent and focus given to House elections, Ballotpedia desires to provide readers with an aggregation of third party rankings, previous election data and other relevant factors that will provide a more targeted and specific set of districts to watch for during the lead up to the 2014 election.

Below, a comparison is made to both the most expensive House races, the resulting MOV and also the final Cook projection compared to the MOVs.

### Political spending versus results[edit]

Sarah Rosier interview with Grassroots TV about congressional competitiveness, published in May 2014.

Below are the most expensive House general elections in 2012, according to an OpenSecrets.org study:[3]

Most expensive races vs. margin of victory

Race  | Amount raised  | Amount spent  | 2012 MOV
Florida's 18th Congressional District | $24,111,384 | $22,951,644 | 0.6%
Ohio's 8th Congressional District** | $22,024,288 | $21,197,801 | 98.4%
Minnesota's 6th Congressional District | $17,305,918 | $14,225,615 | 0.8%
California's 33rd Congressional District | $9,879,844 | $10,645,394 | 8%
Virginia's 7th Congressional District** | $8,448,263 | $8,278,564 | 17%
California's 30th Congressional District | $7,886,785 | $11,944,794 | 20.6%
Colorado's 7th Congressional District | $7,814,798 | $7,820,465 | 13.5%
Illinois' 10th Congressional District | $7,612,934 | $7,572,654 | 1.2%
Illinois' 8th Congressional District | $7,320,575 | $7,203,706 | 9.4%
Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District** | $7,260,389 | $8,901,322 | 11.5%

**Two of these races were re-election bids by House Republican leadership, John Boehner and Eric Cantor, and one was former vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan's campaign for re-election.

This means that only three of the most expensive House races in 2012 were decided by a MOV of five percent or less.

### Projections versus results[edit]

On November 5, 2012, the day before the 2012 general election, Cook released their final list of 85 competitive districts. The competitive districts were sorted by six categories: "Likely," "Lean" and "Toss Up" predictions for both Democratic and Republican gains.[4]

Of these competitive districts, 56 had an MOV of five percentage points or above. Of those 56, 29 districts would not have made a competitive MOV cut for Ballotpedia's study, with the winner having led the closest competitor by 10 or more percentage points in 2012. This means 34% of Cook's competitive districts were not actually competitive.

### 2012 moneymaker districts[edit]

#### What is a "moneymaker district?"[edit]

As previously stated, the average House general election cost candidates $2,128,629 in 2012.

What happens when a district that truly is not competitive is classified by the media as competitive?

The cost skyrockets. As outlined below, the 29 least competitive races in Cook's competitive ratings cost $101,370,857, which is a total of $39,640,616 more than 29 districts spending the average 2012 election price ($2,128,629) would have cost. In other words, each moneymaker race cost an average of $3,495,546, which is $1,366,917 more than the average 2012 race.

##### Why?[edit]

Media attention. When pundits, political organizations or analysts classify a district as competitive, other outlets begin adding that to the coverage of the race.

An example of this was seen in Maryland's 6th District.

The 6th District was heavily redistricted making a win for Rep. Roscoe Bartlett almost statistically impossible. The redistricting process changed the registered partisan breakdown by 59.69%. It left a 29.44% advantage for Democrats in party registration over Republicans.

Despite this, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), Cook and others still considered the election between Bartlett and Rep. John Delaney to be competitive as of April 2012. After April 2012, the district was still highlighted under their "Competitive Races" headline, but as a "Likely D" race. This attention led to an expensive campaign. Between Barlett and Delaney, the 6th District candidates spent $5,786,640. This was $3,658,011 more than an average 2012 House campaign.

In the end, Delaney won by an extremely comfortable, and non-competitive, MOV of 20.9 percentage points.

#### The true cost of moneymakers[edit]

* Moneymaker districts: The 29 districts listed in this chart were considered competitive by Cook, but post-election analysis showed they were not competitive (MOV of 10 percentage points and higher).

Cost differential between the moneymaker districts and the average cost of a 2012 House campaign

Districts | Party prior to elec. | Cook PVI | MOV | Cost of 2012 election | Difference from avg. cost
CA-47 |  | D+5 | D+13.2 | $2,589,871 | +$461,242
FL-09 |  | D+4 | D+25 | $4,782,973 | +$2,654,344
IA-01 |  | D+5 | D+15.3 | $3,738,165 | +$1,609,536
IA-02 |  | D+4 | D+13.1 | $2,512,269 | +$383,640
MD-06 |  | D+2 | D+20.9 | $5,786,640 | +$3,658,011
NY-25 |  | D+5 | D+14.4 | $3,917,121 | +$1,788,492
CA-24 |  | D+3 | D+10.2 | $5,191,080 | +$3,062,451
CA-41 |  | D+3 | D+18 | $2,788,415 | +$659,786
CO-07 |  | D+3 | D+12.7 | $7,820,466 | +$5,691,837
FL-26 | New district | R+4 | D+10.6 | $1,778,880 | -$349,749
CA-09 |  | D+2 | D+11.2 | $5,691,934 | +$3,563,305
RI-01 |  | D+14 | D+12.2 | $3,893,267 | +$1,764,638
IL-11 |  | D+5 | D+17.2 | $6,767,995 | +$4,639,366
TN-04 |  | R+13 | R+11.6 | $1,967,129 | -$161,500
CO-03 |  | R+4 | R+12 | $4,178,209 | +$2,049,580
IN-08 |  | R+8 | R+10.3 | $2,368,687 | +$240,058
PA-08 |  | D+1 | R+13.2 | $4,029,335 | +$1,900,706
WI-07 |  | EVEN | R+12.3 | $3,881,665 | +$1,753,036
AR-04 |  | R+9 | R+22.8 | $2,192,907 | +$64,278
CA-21 |  | R+3 | R+15.6 | $1,280,867 | -$847,762
MT-AL |  | R+7 | R+10.6 | $3,012,612 | +$883,983
NC-11 |  | R+12 | R+14.8 | $1,818,838 | -$309,791
NC-13 |  | R+9 | R+13.6 | $1,691,856 | -$436,773
ND-AL |  | R+10 | R+13.2 | $2,310,930 | +$182,301
OH-07 |  | R+5 | R+12.8 | $2,253,069 | +$124,440
OK-02 |  | R+14 | R+19 | $2,882,044 | +$753,415
PA-06 |  | R+1 | R+14.2 | $3,439,974 | +$1,311,345
SD-AL |  | R+9 | R+14.8 | $3,667,781 | +$1,539,152
WI-08 |  | R+2 | R+11.9 | $3,135,878 | +$1,007,249
Total cost |  |  |  | $101,370,857 |
Total difference between money maker district costs and 2012 average district cost | $39,640,616

#### $39,640,616 better spent[edit]

Although many will argue that political spending in general is unnecessary, even just factoring in the excess cost of moneymaker districts is staggering. As shown above, the difference in cost between moneymaker districts and the average cost of a House elections in 2012 tops $39 million. Here's what $39 million could have bought!

*3,223 families of four could have been fed for a year.[5]

100px

*1,554 wells in Africa could have been built to service schools and medical clinics.[6]

100px

|  *A Boys & Girls Club in Whatcom County, WA, could have been funded for full-time operation for 66 years.[7]

100px

*Educational costs for 1,350 DC Public Schools students would have been covered for a year.

150px

|  *Five of Robert Pattinson's Los Angeles homes could have been purchased, with enough left over to buy 43,600 copies of Twilight on DVD.[8]

100px

*Kayne West could have purchased 31 rings similar to Kim Kardashian's new bling.[9]

100px

|
|

## Ballotpedia's five criteria for “most competitive”[edit]

A district must have met one or more of the following criteria:

1. If a district had all six quantifiable predictions/results highlighted (Cook, Fairvote, MOV, 2012 presidential, 2008 presidential, and incumbent years in office) and four were of the most competitive nature, purple, they automatically made the cut.

Nineteen districts fit in this category.

2. The district was considered competitive if it had all six quantifiable predictions/results highlighted (Cook, Fairvote, MOV, 2012 presidential, 2008 presidential and incumbent years in office) with three of the highlighted factors being most competitive (purple) and two being intermediate competitive (orange). The district must also have had a “special factor” (high outside spending, redistricting) to be added to the most competitive list.

Two districts fit into this category.

3. Anomalies: This included Republicans or Democrats in a district that otherwise trended heavily toward the other party. The district must also have had some other qualifying factor, such as an MOV of ten percent or less, an incumbent who had served less than ten years or a competitive 2014 candidate. Both Utah's 4th Congressional District and North Carolina's 7th Congressional District were examples of this before Reps. Jim Matheson and Mike McIntyre announced their retirements.

One district fits into this category.

4. Presidential differences: A district that may not have had all the categories highlighted, but voted for the other party in the most recent presidential election and the numbers were tight for the incumbent (redistricting was also factored in here).

One district was considered “Most Competitive” based only on this factor.

5. Recent effects of redistricting: This was relevant to three districts (IL-12, IL-13 and MN-08). Redistricting in the past three years caused these districts to be extremely tight and had the opportunity for a very close midterm election (the first midterm cycle these new districts will be going through).

Three districts were pushed into the most competitive list because of this, just missing meeting the other criteria listed above.

## The 26 "Most Competitive Districts in 2014"[edit]

Color Key

Color | Cook Partisan Voting Index | Fairvote (Projected D%) | Margin of Victory (MOV) | 2012 Presidential MOV % % | 2008 Presidential MOV % | Incumbent years in office
Purple- most competitive | Even; R or D 0-4 | 45.1% - 54.9% | 0-4.9 | 0-4.9 | 0-4.9 | 0 - 4
Orange- very competitive | R or D 5-7 | 42.1% - 45.0%; 55% - 57.9% | 5.0-7.9 | 5.0-7.9 | 5.0-7.9 | 5 - 7
Green- competitive | R or D 8-10 | 40.0% - 42.0%; 58% - 60% | 8.0-10.00 | 8.0-10.00 | 8.0-10.00 | 8 - 10
House winners labeled this color indicate the party of the House winner being different from the party of the presidential winner of the district in 2012
Districts labeled this color indicate the districts that were pushed into most competitive based on heavily redrawn congressional districts
Most competitive districts for 2014 elections

Congressional district | Battleground label | Cook PVI | Fairvote (Projected D%) | Margin of Victory (MOV) in 2012 | 2012 Presidential MOV % | 2008 Presidential MOV % | Incumbent years in office | 2012 House winner | Campaign contributions difference | Cost per vote for winner in 2012
Arizona's 1st | Battleground D | R+4  | 48% | 3.6 | -2.5 | -3.2 | 0 | Democratic | 61.38% | $19.13
Arizona's 2nd | Battleground D | R+3  | 50.9% | 0.8 | -1.5 | -0.9 | 0 | Democratic | 65.57% | $18.85
Arizona's 9th | Battleground D | R+1  | 51% | 4.1 |  ✓4.5 |  ✓3.9 | 0 | Democratic | 64.44% | $17.78
California's 7th | Battleground D | EVEN | 51.4% | 3.4 | ✓4 | ✓5 | 0 | Democratic | 57.34% | $25.72
California's 21st | Battleground R | D+2 | 50.9% | 15.5 |  ✓11.1 | ✓6 | 0 | Republican | 91.39% | $19.59
California's 36th | Battleground D | R+1 | 51.2% | 5.9 | ✓3.2 | ✓3 | 0 | Democratic | 46.67% | $17.94
California's 52nd | Battleground D | D+2 | 52.3% | 2.4 | ✓6.4 | ✓12 | 0 | Democratic | 62.23% | $28.93
Colorado's 6th | Battleground R | D+1  | 45.1% | 2 | ✓5.1 | ✓8.7 | 4 | Republican | 66.81% | $20.99
Florida's 18th | Battleground D | R+3  | 47.7% | 0.6 | -4.1 | ✓3.1 | 0 | Democratic | 19.70% | $28.58
Florida's 26th | Battleground D | R+1  | 53.1% | 10.6 | ✓6.7 | -0.4 | 0 | Democratic | 69.59% | $10.28
Illinois' 12th | Battleground D | EVEN | 50.1% | 8.9 | ✓1.5 | ✓11.1 | 0 | Democratic | 46.64% | $7.52
Illinois' 13th | Battleground R | EVEN | 47.2% | 0.3 | -0.3 | ✓11 | 0 | Republican | 51.38% | $10.22
Michigan's 1st | Battleground R | R+5 | 45.1% | 0.5 | -8.3 | ✓1.3 | 2 | Republican | 59.74% | $13.30
Minnesota's 8th | Battleground D | D+1  | 52.4% | 8.9 | ✓5.5 | ✓8.6 | 0 | Democratic | 34.52% | $6.52
Nevada's 3rd | Battleground R | EVEN  | 44.2% | 7.5 | ✓0.8 | ✓8.9 | 2 | Republican | 61.24% | $17.66
New Hampshire's 1st | Battleground D | R+1 | 50.4% | 3.8 | ✓1.6 | ✓6.4 | 0 | Democratic | 47.47% | $10.02
New Jersey's 2nd | Battleground R | D+1 | 40.2% | 17.4 | ✓8.1 | ✓7.7 | 18 | Republican | 96.60% | $9.40
New Jersey's 3rd | Battleground R | R+1  | 44.8% | 8.9 | ✓4.6 | ✓3.4 | 2 | Republican | 66.17% | $11.94
New York's 1st | Battleground D | R+2 | 51.3% | 4.6 | ✓0.5 | ✓3 | 10 | Democratic | 54.54% | $18.81
New York's 11th | Battleground R | R+2 | 46.1% | 5 | ✓4.3 | -3 | 2 | Republican | 70.91% | $21.96
New York's 18th | Battleground D | EVEN | 51.5% | 3.7 | ✓4.3 | ✓5 | 0 | Democratic | 40.94% | $15.69
New York's 21st | Battleground D | EVEN | 51.5% | 1.9 | ✓6.1 | ✓5 | 4 | Democratic | 50.05% | $15.54
New York's 23rd | Battleground R | R+3  | 45.6% | 3.6 | -1.2 | ✓1 | 3 | Republican | 71.76% | $15.31
Texas' 23rd | Battleground D | R+3 | 48.7% | 4.8 | -2.6 | ✓1 | 0 | Democratic | 39.93% | $18.65
Virginia's 2nd | Battleground R | R+2 | 43.4% | 7.7 | ✓1.5 | ✓1.7 | 2 | Republican | 54.38% | $14.42
West Virginia's 3rd | Battleground D | R+14  | 50.4% | 7.1 | -32.2 | -13.4 | 20 | Democratic | 69.55% | $13.26

* Cook's PVI is Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index.[10]
* FairVote's %D is FairVote.org's 2014 congressional election projections.[11]

According to our study, only 16 states had one or more competitive districts in 2014.

* Both the 2012 and 2008 presidential MOV have either "✓" or "-" before the number. The "✓" indicates the district went in favor of the winner, in both years this was President Obama. The "-" indicates the district favored the Republican who lost in each election, Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.

### Will the battlegrounds change?[edit]

Ballotpedia's team carefully monitored all districts to see if a factor, such as an incumbent retiring, caused the district to become competitive. Barring large factors such as a retirement or death, our competitive list remained static. The changes were recorded below.

#### October 2013[edit]

Florida's 13th Congressional District

This district was not on our most competitive list until late October 2013. The late Rep. Bill Young consistently received high MOVs (15.1% points in 2012) and enjoyed a 42 year incumbency. However, with the announcement of his retirement and, subsequently, his passing, the race became competitive due to the recent presidential election results and the gradual change in make-up of the district.

##### June 2014 Removal[edit]

Although the special election that took place in early 2014 garnered national attention and only a slim margin of victory for current-Rep. David Jolly, when it came time for the candidacy filing deadline for the midterm elections, only Jolly and two third-party candidates filed. Without the possible rematch of Jolly versus Alex Sink (D), or another candidate with major-party backing, Ballotpedia no longer considered this a battleground race.

#### December 2013[edit]

Utah's 4th Congressional District

Utah's 4th District was considered by nearly all pundits and political enthusiasts as one of the most competitive races for the 2014 elections. However, when Rep. Jim Matheson announced his retirement on December 17, 2013, the district swung into safe Republican territory. Matheson, first elected to the House in 2000, won a razor thing re-election in 2012 (he won by 768 votes) and was facing a more and more Republican constituency (Mitt Romney won the district by an MOV of 37 percentage points).

#### January 2014[edit]

North Carolina's 7th Congressional District

Similar to Utah's 4th Congressional District, North Carolina's 7th District was considered one of the most competitive districts in the country. Rep. Mike McIntyre narrowly won re-election in 2012. Only 654 votes separated McIntyre from David Rouzer (R). McIntyre was facing a possible rematch against Rouzer in 2014 in a district that has become more conservative each year. His retirement at the end of this term all but guaranteed a Republican pick-up of the seat.

#### July 2014[edit]

California's 10th Congressional District and California's 52nd Congressional District

California's 10th Congressional District was removed from the battleground list, while California's 52nd District was added to take its place. Race ratings and FEC reports showed that the 10th District was not as competitive as it was originally predicted to be. It was instead likely to be won by Republican incumbent Jeff Denham.

On the other hand, the 52nd District was shaping up to be very competitive in 2014. The district appeared to have a very slight Democratic lean, but Republican candidates secured nearly 58 percent of the primary vote. This pointed to incumbent Scott Peters (D) facing a difficult re-election bid against challenger Carl DeMaio (R) in November.

### How will this shape our coverage?[edit]

With a targeted focus of these 26 districts heading into 2014, the Ballotpedia team strived provide readers with comprehensive information on these elections, above and beyond our normal election coverage.

Beginning in January, Ballotpedia released one in-depth look at each competitive district every week.

However, for the 406 districts that did not receive a competitive label, the readers still saw the same coverage they expected from Ballotpedia.

#### Battleground badges[edit]

To quickly alert readers to the hot races of 2014, the Congress Project developed "battleground badges" that signified the races to pay attention to.

If you saw this badge on a district page, it meant that you were on one of the 26 House races, or a particularly close Senate race, that Ballotpedia would be monitoring.

When you spotted this badge added by the Congress Project, it indicated that the race would be close, but the statistics illustrated that it would not be as close as a battleground race.

|

### Our goals for this study[edit]

* Ballotpedia hoped this study allowed you, as a reader and voter, to focus your resources (whether it be your time or your money) on the truly competitive districts.
* We hoped that our readers would look past the hype and be able to quickly and effectively determine what districts were deserving of attention.

### 2014 results[edit]

State | Before | After

|
|

Incumbent | Party | Winner | Winner Party | District Party Change?
Arizona's 1st District | Ann Kirkpatrick |  | Ann Kirkpatrick |  | No
Arizona's 2nd District | Ron Barber |  | Martha McSally |  | Yes
Arizona's 9th District | Kyrsten Sinema |  | Kyrsten Sinema |  | No
California's 7th District | Ami Bera |  | Ami Bera |  | No
California's 21st District | David Valadao |  | David Valadao |  | No
California's 36th District | Raul Ruiz |  | Raul Ruiz |  | No
California's 52nd District | Scott Peters |  | Scott Peters |  | No
Colorado's 6th District | Mike Coffman |  | Mike Coffman |  | No
Florida's 18th District | Patrick Murphy |  | Patrick Murphy |  | No
Florida's 26th District | Joe Garcia |  | Carlos Curbelo |  | Yes
Illinois' 12th District | William Enyart |  | Mike Bost |  | Yes
Illinois' 13th District | Rodney Davis |  | Rodney Davis |  | No
Michigan's 1st District | Dan Benishek |  | Dan Benishek |  | No
Minnesota's 8th District | Rick Nolan |  | Rick Nolan |  | No
Nevada's 3rd District | Joe Heck |  | Joe Heck |  | No
New Hampshire's 1st District | Carol Shea-Porter |  | Frank Guinta |  | Yes
New Jersey's 2nd District | Frank LoBiondo |  | Frank LoBiondo |  | No
New Jersey's 3rd District | Jon Runyan* |  | Tom MacArthur |  | No
New York's 1st District | Tim Bishop |  | Lee Zeldin |  | Yes
New York's 11th District | Michael Grimm |  | Michael Grimm |  | No
New York's 18th District | Sean Maloney |  | Sean Maloney |  | No
New York's 21st District | Bill Owens* |  | Elise Stefanik |  | Yes
New York's 23rd District | Tom Reed |  | Tom Reed |  | No
Texas' 23rd District | Pete Gallego |  | Will Hurd |  | Yes
Virginia's 2nd District | Scott Rigell |  | Scott Rigell |  | No
West Virginia's 3rd District | Nick Rahall |  | Evan Jenkins |  | Yes

"*" indicates that the incumbent retired in 2014.

### Upsets[edit]

Non-battleground district upsets included:

District | Before | After

|
|

Incumbent | Party | Winner | Winner Party
California's 31st District | Gary Miller (Retired) |  | Pete Aguilar |
Florida's 2nd District | Steve Southerland |  | Gwen Graham |
Georgia's 12th District | John Barrow |  | Rick Allen |
Illinois' 10th District | Brad Schneider |  | Robert J. Dold |
Iowa's 1st District | Bruce Braley (Ran for Senate) |  | Rod Blum |
Maine's 2nd District | Mike Michaud (Ran for governor) |  | Bruce Poliquin |
Nebraska's 2nd District | Lee Terry |  | Brad Ashford |
Nevada's 4th District | Steven Horsford |  | Cresent Hardy |
New York's 24th District | Dan Maffei |  | John Katko |

### Expected seat changes[edit]

These are districts where a change in party was expected due to a very vulnerable incumbent. These races were not rated as battlegrounds because they were likely to flip control.

District | Before | After

|
|

Incumbent | Party | Winner | Winner Party
North Carolina's 7th District | Mike McIntyre (Retiring) |  | David Rouzer |
Utah's 4th District | Jim Matheson (Retiring) |  | Mia Love |
West Virginia's 3rd District | Nick Rahall |  | Evan Jenkins |

## Other initial 2014 predictions and targets[edit]

### Cook Political Report[edit]

Cook Political Report had 76 districts labeled as competitive.

Likely Democratic
Lean Democratic
D Tossup

R Tossup
Lean Republican
Likely Republican

|

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- 2014 U.S. House Competitive Districts

Month  |  Likely D  |  Lean D  |  D Tossup  |  R Tossup  |  Lean R  |  Likely R  |  Total D  |  Total R  |  Total Competitive races
August 8, 2013[12] |  14  |  16  |  8  |  1  |  11  |  17  |  28  |  29  |  57
September 5, 2013[13] |  14  |  15  |  9  |  1  |  11  |  17  |  38  |  29  |  67
October 21, 2013[14] |  14  |  15  |  9  |  1  |  11  |  17  |  36  |  34  |  70
October 30, 2013[15] |  12  |  15  |  10  |  2  |  16  |  16  |  37  |  34  |  71
December 18, 2013[16] |  14  |  14  |  10  |  4  |  15  |  15  |  38  |  34  |  72
January 7, 2014[17] |  14  |  15  |  10  |  4  |  16  |  16  |  39  |  36  |  75
January 15, 2014[18] |  14  |  14  |  11  |  4  |  16  |  18  |  39  |  38  |  77
February 13, 2014[19] |  14  |  13  |  11  |  4  |  16  |  18  |  38  |  38  |  76
March 13, 2014[20] |  15  |  13  |  11  |  3  |  16  |  18  |  39  |  37  |  76
April 4, 2014[21] |  15  |  13  |  11  |  3  |  17  |  19  |  39  |  39  |  78
June 26, 2014[22] |  16  |  14  |  11  |  2  |  16  |  18  |  41  |  36  |  77
August 8, 2014[23] |  15  |  13  |  13  |  3  |  9  |  17  |  41  |  29  |  70
September 19, 2014[24] |  14  |  13  |  11  |  4  |  8  |  18  |  38  |  30  |  68
October 22, 2014[25] |  11  |  14  |  13  |  5  |  6  |  15  |  38  |  26  |  64

### Sabato's Crystal Ball[edit]

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball projections labeled 66 races as competitive.

Likely Democratic
Lean Democratic
D Tossup

R Tossup
Lean Republican
Likely Republican

|

Sabato's Crystal Ball Race Rating -- U.S. House

Month  |  Likely D  |  Lean D  |  D Tossup  |  R Tossup  |  Lean R  |  Likely R  |  Total D  |  Total R  |  Total Competitive races
October 23, 2013[26] |  7  |  20  |  5  |  3  |  15  |  12  |  32  |  30  |  62
December 17, 2013[27] |  8  |  19  |  5  |  6  |  14  |  14  |  32  |  34  |  66
January 7, 2014[28] |  8  |  19  |  5  |  7  |  14  |  14  |  32  |  35  |  67
March 12, 2014[29] |  10  |  15  |  7  |  5  |  14  |  15  |  32  |  34  |  66
March 31, 2014[30] |  10  |  15  |  7  |  5  |  15  |  16  |  32  |  36  |  68
August 6, 2014[31] |  9  |  13  |  10  |  3  |  11  |  16  |  32  |  30  |  62

### FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2014[edit]

According to the 2014 national house election projections, there were:[32]

* 201 Safe Republican districts
* 18 Likely Republican districts
* 21 Tossup districts
* 15 Likely Democratic districts
* 151 Safe Democratic districts

### Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee[edit]

Between their Frontline Program, designed to help vulnerable incumbents win re-elections, and their Jumpstart Program, which provides early support to candidates in competitive districts, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) targeted 42 races with their resources.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Frontline Program

District | Incumbent | Result
Arizona's 2nd District | Ron Barber |  d
Georgia's 12th District | John Barrow |  d
California's 7th District | Ami Bera |
New York's 1st District | Tim Bishop |  d
California's 26th District | Julia Brownley |
Illinois' 17th District | Cheri Bustos |
California's 24th District | Lois Capps |
Washington's 1st District | Suzan DelBene |
Illinois' 12th District | Bill Enyart |  d
Connecticut's 5th District | Elizabeth Esty |
Texas' 23rd District | Pete Gallego |  d
Florida's 26th District | Joe Garcia |  d
Arizona's 1st District | Ann Kirkpatrick |
New Hampshire's 2nd District | Ann McLane Kuster |
New York's 18th District | Sean Patrick Maloney |
New York's 24th District | Dan Maffei |  d
Utah's 4th District | Jim Matheson |  d
North Carolina's 7th District | Mike McIntyre |  d
Florida's 18th District | Patrick Murphy |
New York's 21st District | Bill Owens |  d
California's 52nd District | Scott Peters |
California's 36th District | Raul Ruiz |
Illinois' 10th District | Brad Schneider |  d
New Hampshire's 1st District | Carol Shea-Porter |  d
Arizona's 9th District | Kyrsten Sinema |
Massachusetts' 6th District | John Tierney |
West Virginia's 3rd District | Nick Rahall |  d
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Jumpstart Program

District | Challenger | Incumbent | Result
California's 10th District | Michael Eggman | Jeff Denham |  d
California's 31st District | Pete Aguilar | Gary Miller |
Colorado's 6th District | Andrew Romanoff | Mike Coffman |  d
Florida's 2nd District | Gwen Graham | Steve Southerland |
Illinois' 13th District | Ann Callis | Rodney Davis |  d
Iowa's 3rd District | Staci Appel | Tom Latham |  d
Michigan's 1st District | Jerry Cannon | Dan Benishek |  d
Michigan's 7th District | Pam Byrnes | Tim Walberg |  d
Montana's at-large District | John Lewis | Max Baucus |  d
Nevada's 3rd District | Erin Bilbray-Kohn | Joe Heck |  d
New Mexico's 2nd District | Roxanne Lara | Steve Pearce |  d
New York's 11th District | Domenic Recchia | Michael Grimm |  d
New York's 23rd District | Martha Robertson | Tom Reed |  d
Ohio's 6th District | Jennifer Garrison | Bill Johnson |  d
Pennsylvania's 8th District | Kevin Strouse | Michael Fitzpatrick |  d
Virginia's 2nd District | Suzanne Patrick | Scott Rigell |  d

### National Republican Congressional Committee[edit]

The National Republican Congressional Committee's (NRCC) Patriot Program was the counterpart of the DCCC's Frontline Program and was designed to assist vulnerable incumbents in their re-election bids. The following table lists the members of the Patriot Program in 2014.

National Republican Congressional Committee Patriot Program, 2014

District | Incumbent | Result
Michigan's 1st District | Dan Benishek |
Colorado's 6th District | Mike Coffman |
Illinois' 13th District | Rodney Davis |
California's 10th District | Jeff Denham |
Pennsylvania's 8th District | Michael G. Fitzpatrick |
New York's 19th District | Chris Gibson |
New York's 11th District | Mike Grimm |
Nevada's 3rd District | Joe Heck |
Ohio's 6th District | Bill Johnson |
Florida's 13th District | David Jolly |
Ohio's 14th District | David Joyce |
New York's 23rd District | Tom Reed |
Virginia's 2nd District | Scott Rigell |
Florida's 2nd District | Steve Southerland II |  d
California's 21st District | David G. Valadao |
Michigan's 7th District | Tim Walberg |
Indiana's 2nd District | Jackie Walorski |

##### NRCC targets[edit]

The following Democratic incumbents were targeted by the NRCC in 2014.

National Republican Congressional Committee, Targeted incumbents

District | Targeted incumbent | November 4 Results
Arizona's 1st District |  Ann Kirkpatrick | Ann Kirkpatrick
Arizona's 2nd District |  Ron Barber |  Pending
Georgia's 12th District |  John Barrow | Rick Allen
Minnesota's 7th District |  Collin Peterson | Collin Peterson
North Carolina's 7th District |  Mike McIntyre |  David Rouzer
Utah's 4th District |  Jim Matheson |  Mia Love
West Virginia's 3rd District |  Nick Rahall | Evan Jenkins

## See also[edit]

* U.S. Congress race ratings
* United States House of Representatives elections, 2014
* United States House of Representatives elections, 2012
* Portal:Legislative Branch
* 113th Congress
* 112th Congress
* Misconduct in the 113th Congress (2013-2014)
* BP News: Battleground Friday: Arizona's 1st Congressional District
* BP News: Battleground Friday: California's 7th Congressional District
* BP News: Battleground Friday: California's 10th Congressional District
* BP News: Battleground Friday: California's 21st Congressional District
* BP News: Battleground Friday: California's 36th Congressional District
* BP News: Battleground Friday: Colorado's 6th Congressional District
* BP News: Battleground Friday: Florida's 18th Congressional District
* BP News: Battleground Friday: Florida's 26th Congressional District
* BP News: Battleground Friday: Illinois' 12th Congressional District
* BP News: Battleground Friday: Illinois' 13th Congressional District
* BP News: Battleground Friday: Nevada's 3rd Congressional District
* BP News: Battleground Friday: New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District
* BP News: Battleground Friday: New York's 11th Congressional District
* BP News: Battleground Friday: New York's 18tg Congressional District
* BP News: Battleground Friday: New York's 1st Congressional District
* BP News: Battleground Friday: New York's 21st Congressional District
* BP News: Battleground Friday: Texas' 23rd Congressional District
* BP News: Battleground Friday: Virginia's 2nd Congressional District
* BP News: Battleground Friday: West Virginia's 3rd Congressional District

## Footnotes[edit]

1. ↑ OpenSecrets, "The Money Behind the Elections," accessed October 15, 2013
2. ↑ The Cook Political Report, "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS FOR NOVEMBER 5, 2012," November 5, 2012
3. ↑ OpenSecrets, "Most Expensive Races," accessed October 28, 2013
4. ↑ Cook Political, "2012 HOUSE RACE RATINGS FOR NOVEMBER 5, 2012," accessed October 31, 2013
5. ↑ USDA, "Official USDA Food Plans: Cost of Food at Home at Four Levels, U.S. Average, January 2012," accessed November 5, 2013 (dead link)
6. ↑ The Water Project, "COMMON QUESTIONS ABOUT FUNDING A WELL / WATER PROJECT," accessed November 5, 2013
7. ↑ Whatcom Clubs.org, "Expansion Policies," accessed November 5, 2013
8. ↑ Realtor.com, "Robert Pattinson Lists ‘Twilight’ Love Nest," accessed November 5, 2013
9. ↑ MTV, "Kim Kardashian's $1.25 Million Engagement Ring?" accessed November 5, 2013
10. ↑ The Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2014 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," accessed November 5, 2013
11. ↑ FairVote, "FairVote Releases Projections for the 2014 Congressional Elections," accessed November 5, 2013
12. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed August 9, 2013
13. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed September 18, 2013
14. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed October 21, 2013
15. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed October 30, 2013
16. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed December 18, 2013
17. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed January 7, 2014
18. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed January 15, 2014
19. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed February 14, 2014
20. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed March 13, 2014
21. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed April 4, 2014
22. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed August 14, 2014
23. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed August 14, 2014
24. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed October 24, 2014
25. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS," accessed October 24, 2014
26. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Ratings," accessed November 5, 2013
27. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Ratings," accessed December 17, 2013
28. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Ratings," accessed January 7, 2014
29. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Ratings," accessed March 12, 2014
30. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Ratings," accessed March 31, 2014
31. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Ratings," August 6, 2014
32. ↑ FairVote.org, "Monopoly Politics 2014," accessed November 5, 2013

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