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2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska

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This article is about the regularly-held election. For the special election, see 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election. For related races, see 2022 United States House of Representatives elections.

2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska's at-large district
← 2022 (special) November 8, 2022 2024 →
 
Candidate Mary Peltola Sarah Palin Nick Begich III
Party Democratic Republican Republican
First round 128,553
48.8% 		67,866
25.7% 		61,513
23.3%
Maximum round 137,263
55.0% 		112,471
45.0% 		Eliminated
Peltola:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Palin:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. Representative before election

Mary Peltola
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Mary Peltola
Democratic

Elections in Alaska
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The November 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska. Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola won reelection to a full term in office, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III and Libertarian Chris Bye in the runoff count.[1]

This was the second race in Alaska held under the 2020 Measure 2 election procedure. Earlier that year, a special election was held to complete the term of the late Don Young, which Peltola won.[2]

In the race for the full term of the congressional seat, all candidates first ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary. Each voter cast a single vote to choose who would advance to the runoff. Mary Peltola, Sarah Palin, Nick Begich III, and Chris Bye[note 1] advanced to the runoff.[3][4]

Under the rules of instant-runoff, Bye and Begich were eliminated in the first and second rounds, after they received the fewest votes. These votes were then transferred to either Peltola or Palin, depending on who the voter ranked higher on their ballot. Peltola won with 55% of the vote, increasing her margin from the special election.[5]

Peltola's final-round vote share of 55% was the best performance for a statewide Democratic candidate in Alaska since the 1974 Senate race, and the best performance for any statewide candidate in Alaska since the 2012 House race. Peltola was one of only five House Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections who won (or flipped) a district that Donald Trump had carried in the 2020 presidential election.[a] She outran Joe Biden's vote share by more than 20%, the highest overperformance of any House Democrat in the midterms.

Social choice theorists commenting on the race noted that unlike the previous special election, the general election involved few election pathologies. Peltola won the election as the majority-preferred (Condorcet) candidate, with ballots indicating support from a majority of voters.[6]

Primary election

[edit]

Democratic Party

[edit]

Advanced to general

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Republican Party

[edit]

Advanced to general

[edit]

Withdrew after advancing to general

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Advanced to general

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Alaskan Independence Party

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

American Independent Party

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Robert Ornelas, pastor and perennial candidate[7]

Independents

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Primary election results[19][32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mary Peltola 70,295 36.80
Republican Sarah Palin 57,693 30.20
Republican Nick Begich III 50,021 26.19
Republican Tara Sweeney (withdrew) 7,195 3.77
Libertarian Chris Bye[b] 1,189 0.62
Libertarian J. R. Myers 531 0.28
Republican Bob Lyons 447 0.23
Republican Jay Armstrong 403 0.21
Republican Brad Snowden 355 0.19
Republican Randy Purham 311 0.16
Independent Lady Donna Dutchess 270 0.14
Independent Sherry Strizak 252 0.13
American Independent Robert Ornelas 248 0.13
Republican Denise Williams 242 0.13
Independent Gregg Brelsford 241 0.13
Independent David Hughes 238 0.12
Independent Andrew Phelps 222 0.12
Independent Tremayne Wilson 194 0.10
Independent Sherry Mettler 191 0.10
Independent Silvio Pellegrini 187 0.10
Independent Ted Heintz 173 0.09
Independent Davis LeBlanc 117 0.06
Total votes 191,015 100.00

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[33] Lean D November 1, 2022
Inside Elections[34] Lean D November 3, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[35] Lean D November 2, 2022
Politico[36] Lean D October 26, 2022
RCP[37] Tossup November 3, 2022
Fox News[38] Lean D November 1, 2022
DDHQ[39] Lean D November 8, 2022
FiveThirtyEight[40] Tossup November 3, 2022
The Economist[41] Lean D November 2, 2022

Debates and forums

[edit]

As of September 2022, there had been one debate featuring the general election candidates.

A little over an hour before election results came in for the final round of the 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election, a debate was held for candidates of this house seat. All four candidates were included in the debate.

2022 Alaska U.S. Representative debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
Nick Begich III Chris Bye Sarah Palin Mary Peltola
1 August 31, 2022 Alaska Oil and Gas Association Dave Karp [42] P P P P
2 October 4, 2022 Kodiak Chamber of Commerce/KMXT (FM) Dan Rohr [43] P P P P
3 October 10, 2022 Anchorage Chamber of Commerce Julie Hasquet [44] P P A P
4 October 21, 2022 Alaska Federation of Natives P P P P
5 October 26, 2022 Alaska Public Media/Alaska's News Source Lori Townsend, Mike Ross [45] P P P P

Endorsements

[edit]
Nick Begich III (R)

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Chris Bye (L)

Organizations

Sarah Palin (R)

Executive branch officials

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Al Gross (I) (withdrawn)

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Mary Peltola (D)

U.S. senators

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Josh Revak (R) (withdrawn)

Individuals

  • Anne Garland Young, widow of former U.S. Representative Don Young[68]
Tara Sweeney (R) (withdrawn)

Executive branch officials

State officials

Individuals

Organizations

  • ANCSA Regional Association[71]
Declined to endorse
State legislators

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		RCV
count 		Mary
Peltola
(D) 		Sarah
Palin
(R) 		Nick
Begich
(R) 		Chris
Bye
(L) 		Undecided /
Not Ranked /
Other
Dittman Research[72] November 2–3, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9%
1 48% 25% 23% 3% 1% U
1% O
2 49% 26% 25% Elim —
3 56% 44% Elim Elim —
Alaska Survey Research[73] October 19–22, 2022 1,276 (LV) ± 3.0%
1 49% 26% 21% 5% —
2 51% 27% 22% Elim —
3 57% 43% Elim Elim —
3*[d] 56% Elim 44% Elim —
Dittman Research[74] October 4–8, 2022 411 (LV) ± 4.8%
1 45% 23% 28% 3% —
2 46% 24% 30% Elim —
3 52% Elim 48% Elim —
Alaska Survey Research[75] September 25–27, 2022 1,282 (LV) ± 3.0%
1 49% 23% 26% 2% —
2 50% 24% 26% Elim —
3 54% Elim 46% Elim —
3*[e] 56% 44% Elim Elim —
Dittman Research[76] September 6–14, 2022 394 (LV) ± 4.9%
1 50% 27% 20% 3% 1% U
1% O
2 51% 28% 21% Elim —
3 58% 42% Elim Elim —
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[77][A] September 6–11, 2022 1,050 (LV) [f] N/A[g] 45% 30% 20% 2% 3% U
1 46% 31% 20% 2% 3% NR
2 47% 32% 21% Elim[h] 4% NR
3 53% 47% Elim[i] Elim 10% NR
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		RCV
count 		Nick
Begich
(R) 		Sarah
Palin
(R) 		Mary
Peltola
(D) 		Tara
Sweeney
(R) 		Undecided
Alaska Survey Research[78] July 20–25, 2022 1,253 (LV) ± 3.0% 1 26% 27% 39% 8% –
2 29% 29% 42% Elim –
3 54% Elim 46% Elim –
3*[j] Elim 48% 53% Elim –
Alaska Survey Research[79] July 2–5, 2022 1,201 (LV) ± 2.9% 1 27% 27% 38% 8% –
2 31% 29% 41% Elim –
3 56% Elim 44% Elim –

Results

[edit]
Preference flow
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district election[80][81]
Party Candidate First choice Round 1 Round 2 Round 3
Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes %
Democratic Mary Peltola (incumbent) 128,553 48.77% +202 128,755 48.66% +1,031 129,786 49.22% +7,477 137,263 54.96%
Republican Sarah Palin 67,866 25.74% +464 68,330 25.82% +1,069 69,399 26.32% +43,072 112,471 45.04%
Republican Nick Begich III 61,513 23.33% +992 62,505 23.62% +1,994 64,499 24.46% -64,499 Eliminated
Libertarian Chris Bye 4,570 1.73% +429 4,999 1.89% -4,999 Eliminated
Write-in 1,108 0.42% -1,108 Eliminated
Total votes 263,610 264,589 263,684 249,734
Blank or inactive ballots 2,208 +905 3,113 +13,950 17,063
Democratic hold

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ The others were Marcy Kaptur, Jared Golden, Matt Cartwright, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
  2. ^ Chris Bye placed fifth in the nonpartisan primary. However, the fourth-place finisher — Tara Sweeney — withdrew, placing Bye in the general election.
  3. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Hypothetical scenario with Begich and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  5. ^ Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  6. ^ The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4.4%; for the 840 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.3%.
  7. ^ Standard polling question.
  8. ^ Bye eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 33% to Begich, 25% to Palin, 17% to Peltola, and 25% not ranked further.
  9. ^ Begich eliminated. Vote transfer break own: 56% to Palin, 14% to Peltola, 30% not ranked further.
  10. ^ Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Bye replaced fourth-place finisher Tara Sweeney after she dropped out of the race.
  1. ^ Bradner, Eric (November 23, 2022). "CNN projects Rep. Mary Peltola will win race for Alaska House seat, thwarting Sarah Palin's political comeback again | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 24, 2022.
  2. ^ Ruskin, Liz (March 18, 2022). "Alaska Congressman Don Young has died". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved March 18, 2022.
  3. ^ Ruskin, Liz (August 23, 2022). "Tara Sweeney ends campaign for U.S. House, opening spot for Libertarian on November ballot". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved September 6, 2022. 'If a candidate who advances out of the primary withdraws 64 or more days before the general election, the fifth place candidate will advance instead,' a Division of Elections spokeswoman said by email.
  4. ^ Media, Andrew Kitchenman, KTOO and Alaska Public (November 18, 2020). "Alaska will have a new election system: Voters pass Ballot Measure 2". KTOO. Retrieved November 18, 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  5. ^ Cochrane, Emily (November 24, 2022). "Mary Peltola Wins Bid to Serve Full Term in the House for Alaska". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 25, 2022.
  6. ^ Clelland, Jeanne N. (April 11, 2024). "Ranked Choice Voting And Condorcet Failure in the Alaska 2022 Special Election: How Might Other Voting Systems Compare?". arXiv:2303.00108 [cs.CY].
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z "2022 Special Primary Election for U.S. Representative". Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
  8. ^ "Candidate list keeps growing with former lawmaker Mary Sattler Peltola". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved April 1, 2022.
  9. ^ a b c d e f Brooks, James (June 16, 2022). "Democrats drop from U.S. House race, most backing Peltola". Retrieved June 17, 2022.
  10. ^ a b c d BOHRER, BECKY (April 2, 2022). "Palin joins 50 others in running for Alaska US House seat". Alton Telegraph. Archived from the original on April 15, 2022. Retrieved April 6, 2022.
  11. ^ Hickman, Matt (March 21, 2022). "Rumors swirl, but Al Gross remains the only newcomer who's a virtual lock to enter race to replace Don Young". Anchorage Press. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
  12. ^ a b c d Herz, Nathaniel (March 26, 2022). "An array of Alaska politicians ponder bids in the "absolute jungle" of elections to replace U.S. Rep. Don Young". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
  13. ^ "Emil Notti, who ran against Don Young in 1973, jumps into the race". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved April 1, 2022.
  14. ^ a b c Rosen, Yereth (June 7, 2022). "Candidates make pitch for temporary service representing Alaska in U.S. House". Retrieved June 7, 2022.
  15. ^ "Begich, Constant to Run in Special Alaska US House Election". Associated Press. March 21, 2022. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
  16. ^ a b Ulloa, Jazmine; Peters, Jeremy W. (April 2, 2022). "Sarah Palin Announces She's Running for Congress in Alaska". The New York Times.
  17. ^ a b Samuels, Iris (August 23, 2022). "Tara Sweeney drops out of Alaska U.S. House race". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on August 24, 2022. Retrieved August 24, 2022.
  18. ^ "Robert Lyons". Ballotpedia. Retrieved April 6, 2022.
  19. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "2022 Primary Candidate List". Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
  20. ^ Bohrer, Becky (March 28, 2022). "Gross, Coghill say they plan to run for Alaska US House seat". San Francisco Chronicle. Associated Press. Archived from the original on March 29, 2022. Retrieved March 29, 2022.
  21. ^ a b "John Coghill pulls out of Congressional race, makes endorsement". KINY. Fairbanks, Alaska. June 20, 2022. Retrieved June 24, 2022.
  22. ^ Downing, Suzanne (March 23, 2022). "Revak to file for Congress to replace Don Young". Retrieved March 24, 2022.
  23. ^ Bohrer, Becky (June 22, 2022). "Sweeney does not plan suit over Alaska House ballot decision". The Register Citizen. Associated Press. Archived from the original on June 25, 2022. Retrieved June 24, 2022.
  24. ^ Samuels, Iris; Herz, Nathaniel; Brooks, James (April 2, 2022). "51 candidates: A wild U.S. House race takes shape in Alaska". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved April 2, 2022.
  25. ^ "Alaska's U.S. House candidate field expands as Friday deadline nears". Anchorage Daily News.
  26. ^ Herz, Nathaniel; Brooks, James (March 22, 2022). "After Young's death, Alaska's political world braces for a sea change and an elections marathon". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on March 22, 2022. Retrieved March 22, 2022.
  27. ^ Pellegrini, Silvio (April 6, 2022). "LinkedIn Profile". LinkedIn.
  28. ^ Matt Hickman (March 19, 2022). "Source: Gross running for Congressional seat vacated by Young's passing". Anchorage Press. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
  29. ^ Maguire, Sean [@SeanBMaguire] (June 20, 2022). "Al Gross is withdrawing from the U.S. House race, according to a press release from his campaign. Zero explanation why and he's not answering his cellphone. Endorses Mary Peltola and Tara Sweeney. Ping @alaskalandmine that broke the story" (Tweet). Retrieved June 20, 2022 – via Twitter.
  30. ^ a b c Ruskin, Liz (June 21, 2022). "Al Gross, a top four candidate for US House, calls it quits". Retrieved June 27, 2022.
  31. ^ a b "OUR campaign gives voters hope for a better future for all Alaskans, especially our children. Thank you so much for your unwavering support, kind words, and love (the greatest gift), and the powerful statement you have made with your vote. My 2-min video".
  32. ^ "August 16, 2022 Primary Election Summary Report - OFFICIAL RESULTS" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. September 2, 2022. Retrieved September 2, 2022.
  33. ^ "2022 House Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  34. ^ "House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  35. ^ "2022 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 5, 2021. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  36. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Politico. April 5, 2022.
  37. ^ "Battle for the House 2022". RCP. June 9, 2022.
  38. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. September 20, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  39. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  40. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  41. ^ "The Economist's 2022 House forecast". The Economist. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  42. ^ YouTube
  43. ^ "Kodiak fishery debate highlights differences between Peltola and her House rivals • Alaska Beacon". October 5, 2022.
  44. ^ YouTube
  45. ^ YouTube
  46. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t "Sarah Palin gets national endorsements, as Nick Begich keeps racking up local Alaskan endorsements". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
  47. ^ "Mayor Bronson endorses Nick Begich for Congress". October 11, 2022.
  48. ^ Downing, Suzanne (November 4, 2022). "Mayor Dan Sullivan endorses Nick Begich for Congress".
  49. ^ "Surprise endorsement for Nick Begich for Congress comes from the heart of Palin World". April 20, 2022.
  50. ^ "Nick Begich III speaks to News of the North". KINY. April 15, 2022. Retrieved May 8, 2022.
  51. ^ Downing, Suzanne (April 21, 2022). "Nick Begich for Congress receives endorsement of Alaska Republican Party". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved May 8, 2022.
  52. ^ a b Downing, Suzanne (May 12, 2022). "FreedomWorks endorses Nick Begich for Congress".
  53. ^ "Chris Bye is the endorsed Libertarian candidate for U.S. House, began his campaign in 2021". Alaska Libertarian Party. April 2, 2022. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
  54. ^ "Nikki Haley returns the favor: endorses Sarah Palin for Congress". The Post and Courier. Retrieved April 3, 2022.
  55. ^ Howie, Craig (April 3, 2022). "Trump endorses Palin in Alaska House special election". Politico. Archived from the original on April 4, 2022. Retrieved April 4, 2022.
  56. ^ Aabram, Virginia (May 9, 2022). "Elise Stefanik endorses Sarah Palin for Alaska House seat". Washington Examiner. Retrieved December 1, 2022.
  57. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". Campaign for Working Families. Retrieved August 3, 2022.
  58. ^ "Log Cabin Republicans Announces Second Round of 2022 Endorsements". Log Cabin Republicans. September 23, 2022. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
  59. ^ "Meet Sarah Palin's Jewish opponent in Alaska's crowded Congressional race". The Forward. Retrieved April 12, 2022.
  60. ^ Hughes, Zachariah (October 22, 2022). "At AFN, Murkowski says she'll vote for longtime friend and Democrat Mary Peltola for U.S. House". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on October 23, 2022. Retrieved October 23, 2022.
  61. ^ "NEW TV AD: In Home Stretch, Former AK Senate President Halford Endorses Peltola To Continue Don Young's Legacy In Congress" (PDF).
  62. ^ "Democrats drop from U.S. House race, most backing Peltola". June 17, 2022. Archived from the original on June 21, 2022. Retrieved June 18, 2022.
  63. ^ Brooks, James (June 23, 2022). "Alaska AFL-CIO endorses Walker, Murkowski, Peltola". Retrieved June 27, 2022.
  64. ^ "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES". Retrieved October 29, 2022.
  65. ^ Beacon, Alaska (October 24, 2022). "Alaska Federation of Natives make key election endorsements". ICT.
  66. ^ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses 22 Additional Pro-Equality Champions for U.S. House of Representatives". Human Rights Campaign. September 30, 2022. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
  67. ^ "Sealaska Encourages Support for Mary Peltola for Congress – Sealaska".
  68. ^ "Don Young's wife endorses Revak in Alaska House race". The Hill. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
  69. ^ "Tara Sweeney kicks off campaign for Congress, names campaign manager Karina Waller, others in key positions". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
  70. ^ "With 64 days to special primary to replace Don Young, congressional candidates are on the move around Alaska". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
  71. ^ "Revak, Sweeney get endorsements in bid for Alaska House seat". The Seattle Times. Associated Press. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
  72. ^ Dittman Research
  73. ^ Alaska Survey Research
  74. ^ Dittman Research
  75. ^ Alaska Survey Research
  76. ^ Dittman Research
  77. ^ Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
  78. ^ Alaska Survey Research
  79. ^ Alaska Survey Research
  80. ^ "RCV Detailed Report | General Election | State of Alaska" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2022. Retrieved December 29, 2022.
  81. ^ "State of Alaska 2022 GENERAL ELECTION Election Summary Report" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2022. Retrieved January 16, 2023.
[edit]

Official campaign websites

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