2024 United States presidential election in Oregon

2024 United States presidential election in Oregon
Reporting	99%as of Nov. 20, 2024, 1:42 PM PST
Harris 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%	Trump 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%
President before election; Joe Biden; Democratic	Elected President ; Donald Trump; Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Oregon took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Oregon has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.^[1]

Harris carried Oregon by 14.3% as of November 21, 2024.

Democrats have won Oregon in every presidential election starting in 1988, and have consistently done so by double digits starting in 2008. A blue state, although not as strongly as neighboring California and Washington, Oregon is part of the Democratic-leaning West Coast, and was predicted to go comfortably for Democrat Kamala Harris (from neighboring California) in 2024.^[2]

Primary elections

Republican primary

The Oregon Republican primary was held on May 21, 2024, the same date as the Kentucky caucuses.

Oregon Republican primary, May 21, 2024^[3]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Donald Trump	294,744	91.6%	31		31
Write-in votes	27,209	8.5%
Total:	321,983	100.0%	31		31

Democratic primary

The Oregon Democratic primary was held on May 21, 2024, the same date as the Kentucky primary.

Oregon Democratic primary, May 21, 2024^[4]
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	397,702	87.1%	66		66
Marianne Williamson	33,603	7.4%
Write-in votes	25,135	5.5%
Total:	456,440	100.0%	66	12	78

Minor Parties

Minor Parties in Oregon nominate by nominating delegates to their national conventions, or for the We the People and Independent parties, holding a nominating convention. They are allowed to self-finance a primary, but no party chose to do so. The following candidates' nominations were accepted by the Oregon Secretary of State:

Minor Party Nominations in Oregon
Party	Candidate
Libertarian	Chase Oliver
We The People	Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Progressive Party	Cornel West
Pacific Green	Jill Stein
Constitution Party	Randall Terry

The Republican Party issued a legal challenge to Libertarian party ballot access that was rejected by the Secretary of State.^[5]

General election

Oregon is considered solidly Democratic, and Donald Trump did not pay the $3,500 required for a candidate statement in the ballot handbook, although candidate statements were provided by the Democratic, We the People, Libertarian, and Pacific Green candidates.^[6] Notably, Oregon's third-largest party, the Independent Party of Oregon, did not nominate a candidate, although it had cross-nominated Joe Biden in 2020.^[7]

In the early hours of October 28, an incendiary device was placed in a ballot drop box in Portland. A total of 3 ballots were damaged, while the rest were unharmed due to the ballot box's fire suppression system.^[8]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[9]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections^[10]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[11]	Safe D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[12]	Safe D	August 26, 2024
CNalysis^[13]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
The Economist^[14]	Safe D	September 12, 2024
538^[15]	Solid D	October 23, 2024
NBC News^[16]	Safe D	October 6, 2024
YouGov^[17]	Safe D	October 16, 2024
Split Ticket^[18]	Safe D	November 1, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)^[19]^[A]	October 16–17, 2024	716 (LV)	± 3.7%	53%	41%	6%
Hoffman Research^[20]	July 24–26, 2024	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	49%	44%	7%

Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Hoffman Research^[20]	July 24–26, 2024	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	45%	40%	7%	1%	7%

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
The Bullfinch Group^[21]^[B]	April 16–23, 2024	250 (RV)	± 6.2%	52%	40%	8%
John Zogby Strategies^[22]^[C]	April 13–21, 2024	419 (LV)	–	47%	44%	9%
Emerson College^[23]	October 31 – November 1, 2022	975 (LV)	± 3.1%	51%	35%	14%
Emerson College^[24]	September 30 – October 1, 2022	796 (LV)	± 3.4%	50%	41%	9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
The Bullfinch Group^[21]^[B]	April 16–23, 2024	250 (RV)	± 6.2%	40%	29%	19%	1%	3%	8%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies^[22]^[C]	April 13–21, 2024	419 (LV)	–	40%	49%	11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies^[22]^[C]	April 13–21, 2024	419 (LV)	–	42%	39%	19%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Oregon^[25]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	1,226,991	55.27%	1.18%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	909,576	40.97%	0.60%
	We the People	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn) Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn)	33,307	1.50%	N/A
	Pacific Green	Jill Stein Butch Ware	18,777	0.85%	0.35%
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	8,909	0.40%	1.35%
	Progressive	Cornel West Melina Abdullah	5,551	0.25%	0.04%
	Constitution	Randall Terry Stephen Broden	1,823	0.08%	N/A
	Write-in		14,954	0.67%	0.05%
Total votes			1,938,079	100.00%	N/A

Notes

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

Partisan clients

^ This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
^ ^a ^b Poll sponsored by The Independent Center
^ ^a ^b ^c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
^ "Oregon Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 5, 2024.
^ "Oregon Presidential Primary". The AP. June 4, 2024. Retrieved July 12, 2024.
^ Shumway, Julia (July 29, 2024). "Despite denials, records show Oregon Republican Party trying to keep Libertarians off the ballot". Oregon Capital Chronicle.
^ Shumway, Julia (September 3, 2024). "Trump won't appear in Oregon's voters' pamphlet, will still be on ballot". Oregon Capital Chronicle.
^ "2024 Nominations of the Independent Party of Oregon".
^ Ortiz, Erik (October 28, 2024). "Ballot drop boxes set on fire in Portland, Ore., and Vancouver, Wash". NBC News. Retrieved October 28, 2024.
^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 25, 2024.
^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
^ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
^ Villeneuve, Andrew (October 17, 2024). "Kamala Harris has a fifteen point lead over Donald Trump in Washington and a twelve point lead in Oregon, NPI polls find". Northwest Progressive Institute.
^ ^a ^b Jaquiss, Nigel (July 30, 2024). "New Poll Shows Harris With 5–Point Lead Over Trump in Oregon". Willamette Week.
^ ^a ^b "Independent Center 2024 Pacific State Survey Toplines" (PDF). The Independent Center. April 23, 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 10, 2024.
^ ^a ^b ^c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
^ Mumford, Camille (November 4, 2022). "Oregon 2022: Independent Candidates' Support Melts As Democrat Tina Kotek Leads Republican Christine Drazan by Four for Governor". Emerson Polling.
^ Mumford, Camille (October 4, 2022). "Oregon 2022: Republican Christine Drazan with Two-Point Lead Over Democrat Tina Kotek for Governorship; Sen. Wyden Holds 19-Point Lead in Re-election Bid". Emerson Polling.
^ "Unofficial General Election November 5, 2024". Oregon SOS. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 20, 2024.

[key-19] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[NPI-21] This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute

[icenter-24] Poll sponsored by The Independent Center

[Kennedy-26] Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

[1] Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.

[2] "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved December 18, 2023.

[3] "Oregon Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 5, 2024.

[4] "Oregon Presidential Primary". The AP. June 4, 2024. Retrieved July 12, 2024.

[5] Shumway, Julia (July 29, 2024). "Despite denials, records show Oregon Republican Party trying to keep Libertarians off the ballot". Oregon Capital Chronicle.

[6] Shumway, Julia (September 3, 2024). "Trump won't appear in Oregon's voters' pamphlet, will still be on ballot". Oregon Capital Chronicle.

[7] "2024 Nominations of the Independent Party of Oregon".

[Ortiz-8] Ortiz, Erik (October 28, 2024). "Ballot drop boxes set on fire in Portland, Ore., and Vancouver, Wash". NBC News. Retrieved October 28, 2024.

[9] "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[10] "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[11] "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[12] "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2024.

[13] "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[14] "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved September 13, 2024.

[15] Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 25, 2024.

[16] "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.

[17] "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.

[18] "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.

[20] Villeneuve, Andrew (October 17, 2024). "Kamala Harris has a fifteen point lead over Donald Trump in Washington and a twelve point lead in Oregon, NPI polls find". Northwest Progressive Institute.

[OR-auto-22] Jaquiss, Nigel (July 30, 2024). "New Poll Shows Harris With 5–Point Lead Over Trump in Oregon". Willamette Week.

[ICApr16-23-23] "Independent Center 2024 Pacific State Survey Toplines" (PDF). The Independent Center. April 23, 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 10, 2024.

[Kennedy24-25] "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.

[27] Mumford, Camille (November 4, 2022). "Oregon 2022: Independent Candidates' Support Melts As Democrat Tina Kotek Leads Republican Christine Drazan by Four for Governor". Emerson Polling.

[28] Mumford, Camille (October 4, 2022). "Oregon 2022: Republican Christine Drazan with Two-Point Lead Over Democrat Tina Kotek for Governorship; Sen. Wyden Holds 19-Point Lead in Re-election Bid". Emerson Polling.

[29] "Unofficial General Election November 5, 2024". Oregon SOS. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 20, 2024.

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