Paul R. Ehrlich

For other people named Paul Ehrlich, see Paul Ehrlich (disambiguation).

Short description: American biologist (1932–present)

Paul R. Ehrlich

Ehrlich in 1974

Born|

Paul Ralph Ehrlich

(1932-05-29) May 29, 1932 (age 91)

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S.

Education|

* University of Pennsylvania (BA)
* University of Kansas (MA, PhD)

Known for| The Population Bomb (1968)
Simon–Ehrlich wager
Spouse(s)|

Anne Howland (m. 1954)

Children| 1
Awards|

* Crafoord Prize (1990)
* Heinz Awards (1995, with Anne H. Ehrlich)
* Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement (1998)
* Fellow of the Royal Society (2012)[1]

Scientific career
Fields|

* Entomology
* Population studies

Institutions| Stanford University
Thesis| The Morphology, Phylogeny and Higher Classification of the Butterflies (Lepidoptera: Papilionoidea) (1957)
Doctoral advisor| C. D. Michener

Paul Ralph Ehrlich (born May 29, 1932) is an American biologist known for his predictions and warnings about the consequences of population growth, including famine and resource depletion.[2][3][4][5] Ehrlich is the Bing Professor Emeritus of Population Studies of the Department of Biology of Stanford University, and President of Stanford's Center for Conservation Biology.

Ehrlich became well known for the controversial 1968 book The Population Bomb, which he co-authored with his wife Anne H. Ehrlich, in which they famously stated that "[i]n the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now."[6][7] Among the solutions suggested in that book was population control, including "various forms of coercion" such as eliminating "tax benefits for having additional children,"[2] to be used if voluntary methods were to fail, as well as letting "hopeless" countries like India starve to death.[need quotation to verify]

Scholars, journalists and public intellectuals have mixed views on Ehrlich's assertions on the dangers of expanding human populations.[8] While Paul A. Murtaugh, associate professor of statistics at Oregon State University, says that Ehrlich was largely correct,[9] Ehrlich has been criticized for his approach and views, both for their pessimistic outlook and, later on, for the repeated failure of his predictions to come true. For example, in response to Ehrlich's assertion that all major marine wildlife would die by 1980, Ronald Bailey termed Ehrlich an "irrepressible doomster".[10] Ehrlich has acknowledged that "some" of what he predicted has not occurred, but nevertheless maintains that his predictions about disease and climate change were essentially correct and that human overpopulation is a major problem.[11] Whereas American journalist Jonathan V. Last has called The Population Bomb "one of the most spectacularly foolish books ever published",[12] journalist Fred Pearce argues that overconsumption is the real problem.[13]

## Contents

* 1 Early life, education, and academic career
* 2 Overpopulation debate
* 2.1 Writings
* 2.1.1 The Population Bomb (1968)
* 2.1.2 The Population Explosion (1990)
* 2.1.3 Optimum Human Population Size (1994)
* 2.2 After 2000
* 3 Reception
* 3.1 Left-wing critics
* 3.2 Simon–Ehrlich wager
* 3.3 Ehrlich's response to critics
* 4 Other activities
* 5 Personal life
* 6 Awards and honors
* 7 Works
* 7.1 Books
* 7.2 Papers
* 8 See also
* 9 Notes
* 10 References
* 10.1 Cited books
* 11 Further reading
* 12 External links

## Early life, education, and academic career

Ehrlich c. 2010

Ehrlich was born in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the son of William Ehrlich and Ruth Rosenberg. His father was a shirt salesman (unrelated to the German scientist Paul Ehrlich), his mother a Greek and Latin scholar[14] and public school teacher.[6] Ehrlich's mother's Reform-Jewish German ancestors arrived in the United States in the 1840s, and his paternal grandparents emigrated there later from the Galician and Transylvanian part of the Austrian Empire.[15] During his childhood his family moved to Maplewood, New Jersey, where he attended Columbia High School, graduating in 1949.[6][16]

Ehrlich earned a bachelor's degree in zoology from the University of Pennsylvania in 1953, an M.A. from the University of Kansas in 1955, and a Ph.D. from the University of Kansas in 1957, supervised by the prominent bee researcher Charles Duncan Michener (the title of his dissertation: "The Morphology, Phylogeny and Higher Classification of the Butterflies (Lepidoptera: Papilionoidea)").[17] During his studies he participated with surveys of insects in the areas of the Bering Sea and Canadian arctic, and then with a National Institutes of Health fellowship, investigated the genetics and behavior of parasitic mites. In 1959 he joined the faculty at Stanford University, being promoted to professor of biology in 1966. By training he is an entomologist specializing in Lepidoptera (butterflies). He was appointed to the Bing Professorship in 1977.[18][19] He is well-known for popularizing the term coevolution in an influential 1964 paper co-authored with the botanist Peter H. Raven, where they proposed that an evolutionary 'arms-race' between plants and insects explains the extreme diversification of plants and insects.[20] This paper was highly influential on the then-nascent field of chemical ecology.

He is president of the Center for Conservation Biology at Stanford University.[21] He is a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the United States National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the American Philosophical Society.[18]

## Overpopulation debate

Further information: Unsolved:Human overpopulation

Graph showing changes in global human population since 10,000 BC

The evidence against a population bomb: Since the 1950s population growth rate has decreased, and is projected to decline further.

A lecture that Ehrlich gave on the topic of overpopulation at the Commonwealth Club of California was broadcast by radio in April 1967.[22] The success of the lecture caused further publicity, and the suggestion from David Brower the executive director of the environmentalist Sierra Club, and Ian Ballantine of Ballantine Books to write a book concerning the topic. Ehrlich and his wife, Anne H. Ehrlich, collaborated on the book, The Population Bomb, but the publisher insisted that a single author be credited; only Paul's name appears as an author.[23]

Although Ehrlich was not the first to warn about population issues — concern had been widespread during the 1950s and 1960s — his charismatic and media-savvy methods helped publicize the topic.[24] The Tonight Show Starring Johnny Carson had Ehrlich on as a guest more than twenty times, with one interview lasting an hour.[25][26]

### Writings

#### The Population Bomb (1968)

The original edition of The Population Bomb began with the statement:

> The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate ...[27]

Ehrlich argued that the human population was too great, and that while the extent of disaster could be mitigated, humanity could not prevent severe famines, the spread of disease, social unrest, and other negative consequences of overpopulation.

His predictions were completely incorrect and overblown; no such famine occurred, and both population and global food supply continued to grow throughout the 1970s, the 1980s, and beyond. (While a few scattered famines did occur in Ethiopia, Bangladesh, and the Sahel region of Africa, their death tolls were much less severe than he predicted and were largely caused due to political instability rather than issues with food production.[28]) Despite this failed set of predictions, Ehrlich has continued to argue that societies must take strong action to decrease population growth in order to mitigate future disasters, both ecological and social.

In the book Ehrlich presented a number of scenarios detailing possible future events, some of which have been used as examples of errors in the years since. Of these scenarios, Ehrlich has said that although, "we clearly stated that they were not predictions and that 'we can be sure that none of them will come true as stated,' (p. 72) – their failure to occur is often cited as a failure of prediction. In honesty, the scenarios were way off, especially in their timing (we underestimated the resilience of the world system). But they did deal with future issues that people in 1968 should have been thinking about." Ehrlich further states that he still endorses the main thesis of the book, and that its message is as apt now as it was in 1968.[23]

Ehrlich has proposed different solutions to the problem of overpopulation. In The Population Bomb he wrote, "We must have population control at home, hopefully through a system of incentives and penalties, but by compulsion if voluntary methods fail. We must use our political power to push other countries into programs which combine agricultural development and population control."[27] Voluntary measures he has endorsed include the easiest possible availability of birth control and abortion. In 1967, he went so far as to insist that countries such as India be allowed to starve, while aid would only be given to those countries that were not considered to be "hopeless".[29][unreliable source?]

The book, while controversial at the time, became an object of ridicule decades later, as the failure of the predictions gradually became obvious. While Ehrlich himself has refused to publicly acknowledge that he was wrong,[30] famines over the fifty years following the book's release were primarily due to war or other political instability, not a lack of food production or overpopulation.[28]

As the Indian economist and Nobel Memorial Prize winner Amartya Sen argued, nations with democracy and a free press have virtually never suffered from extended famines.[31] Indeed, since India became a democracy independent from British rule, it has yet to suffer from a famine,[32] and its population has tripled, in spite of Ehrlich's warnings. Ehrlich's pointed criticism of India in particular (for instance, emphasizing the overpopulation of Delhi rather than Paris, which had nearly triple Delhi's population at the time of writing) has been criticized for focusing much more on "feelings" than on actual data.[33]

Neither of the Ehrlichs have ever publicly renounced predictions, instead insisting that they were largely correct, despite the errors noted by many experts.[dubious - discuss][34]

#### The Population Explosion (1990)

In their sequel to The Population Bomb, the Ehrlichs wrote about how the world's growing population dwarfs the Earth's capacity to sustain current living standards. The book calls for action to confront population growth and the ensuing crisis:[35]

> "When is an area overpopulated? When its population can't be maintained without rapidly depleting nonrenewable resources (or converting renewable resources into nonrenewable ones) and without degrading the capacity of the environment to support the population. In short, if the long-term carrying capacity of an area is clearly being degraded by its current human occupants, that area is overpopulated."

#### Optimum Human Population Size (1994)

In this paper, the Ehrlichs discussed their opinion on the 'optimal size' for human population, given their assessment of the current technological situation. They referred to establishing "social policies to influence fertility rates."[36]

Ehrlich speaking in 2008

### After 2000

During a 2004 interview, Ehrlich answered questions about the predictions he made in The Population Bomb. He acknowledged that some of what he had published had not occurred, but stated that he felt "little embarrassment" and reaffirmed his basic opinion that overpopulation is a major problem. He noted that, "Fifty-eight academies of science said that same thing in 1994, as did the world scientists' warning to humanity in the same year. My view has become depressingly mainline!"[11] Ehrlich also asserted that 600 million people were very hungry while billions were under-nourished, and falsely insisted that his predictions about disease and climate change were essentially correct.[11] Retrospectively, Ehrlich said that The Population Bomb, which predicted a widespread famine by 1985 that never materialized, was actually "way too optimistic".[22][23]

In a 2008 discussion hosted by the website Salon, Paul Ehrlich was more critical of the United States specifically, claiming that it should control its population and consumption as an example to the rest of the world. He still professed a belief that governments should discourage people from having more than two children, suggesting, for example, a higher tax rate for larger families.[37]

In 2011, as the world's population passed the seven billion mark, Ehrlich argued that the next two billion people on Earth would cause more damage than the previous two billion, as humans now increasingly would have to resort to using more marginal and environmentally damaging resources.[38] As of 2013, Ehrlich continued to perform policy research concerning population and resource issues, with an emphasis upon endangered species, cultural evolution, environmental ethics, and the preservation of genetic resources. Along with Dr. Gretchen Daily, he performed work in countryside biogeography; that is, the study of making human-disturbed areas hospitable to biodiversity. His research group at Stanford University examined extensive natural populations of the Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis).[39]

The population-related disaster that Ehrlich predicted has completely failed to materialize, including the "hundreds of millions" of starvation deaths in the 1970s and the tens of millions of deaths in the United States in the 1970s and 1980s. Slowing of population growth rates and new food production technologies have increased the food supply faster than the population.[2] Nonetheless, Ehrlich continues to stand by his general thesis that the human population is too large, posing a direct threat to human survival and the environment of the planet. Indeed, he states that if he were to write the book today, "My language would be even more apocalyptic."[2] In 2018, he emphasized his view that the optimum population size is between 1.5 and 2 billion people.[40] In 2022, he was a contributor to the "Scientists' warning on population," published by Science of the Total Environment, which estimated that a sustainable population would be between 2 and 4 billion people.[41]

## Reception

Wheat yields grew rapidly in Least Developed Countries since 1961.

Critics have disputed Ehrlich's main thesis about overpopulation and its effects on the environment and human society, and his solutions, as well as some of his specific predictions made since the late 1960s. A common criticism concerns Ehrlich's alarmist and sensational statements and inaccurate predictions, leading economist Thomas Sowell to call out Ehrlich as being "consistently wrong on so many things".[42] Ronald Bailey of Reason magazine has termed him an "irrepressible doomster ... who, as far as I can tell, has never been right in any of his forecasts of imminent catastrophe."[10] On the first Earth Day in 1970, he warned that "[i]n ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish."[10][43] In a 1971 speech, he predicted that: "By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people." "If I were a gambler," Professor Ehrlich concluded before boarding an airplane, " I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000."[10][43] When this scenario did not occur, he responded that "When you predict the future, you get things wrong. How wrong is another question. I would have lost if I had had taken the bet. However, if you look closely at England, what can I tell you? They're having all kinds of problems, just like everybody else."[10] Ehrlich wrote in The Population Bomb that, "India couldn't possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980."[27]

He provided no evidence to support his claim. During the 1960s and 70s when Ehrlich made his most alarming warnings, there was a widespread belief among experts that population growth presented an extremely serious threat to the future of human civilization, although differences existed regarding the severity of the situation, and how to decrease it.[24][44]

A large increase in global food production since the 1960s and a slowing of population growth have, within the current context of continued depletion of non-renewable resources, averted the scale of food shortage, famine and catastrophe foretold by the Ehrlichs.

Canadian journalist Dan Gardner, in his 2010 book "Future Babble",[45] argues that Ehrlich has been insufficiently forthright in acknowledging errors he made, while being intellectually dishonest or evasive in taking credit for things he claims he got "right". For example, he rarely acknowledges the mistakes he made in predicting material shortages, massive death tolls from starvation (as many as one billion in the publication Age of Affluence) or regarding the disastrous effects on specific countries. Meanwhile, he is happy to claim credit for "predicting" the increase of AIDS or global warming. However, in the case of disease, Ehrlich had predicted the increase of a disease based on overcrowding, or the weakened immune systems of starving people, so it is "a stretch to see this as forecasting the emergence of AIDS in the 1980s." Similarly, global warming was one of the scenarios that Ehrlich described, so claiming credit for it, while disavowing responsibility for failed scenarios is a double standard. Gardner believes that Ehrlich is displaying classical signs of cognitive dissonance, and that his failure to acknowledge obvious errors of his own judgement render his current thinking suspect.[24]

Barry Commoner has criticized Ehrlich's 1970 statement that "When you reach a point where you realize further efforts will be futile, you may as well look after yourself and your friends and enjoy what little time you have left. That point for me is 1972."[46] Gardner has criticized Ehrlich for endorsing the strategies proposed by William and Paul Paddock in their book Famine 1975!. They had proposed a system of "triage" that would end food aid to "hopeless" countries such as India and Egypt. In Population Bomb, Ehrlich suggests that "there is no rational choice except to adopt some form of the Paddocks' strategy as far as food distribution is concerned." Had this strategy been implemented for countries such as India and Egypt, which were reliant on food aid at that time, they would almost certainly have suffered famines.[24] Instead, both Egypt and India have greatly increased their food production and now feed much larger populations without reliance on food aid.[29][unreliable source?]

### Left-wing critics

Another group of critics, generally of the political left, argues that Ehrlich emphasizes overpopulation too much as a problem in itself instead of distribution of resources.[23] Barry Commoner argued that Ehrlich emphasized overpopulation too much as the source of environmental problems, and that his proposed solutions were politically unacceptable because of the coercion that they implied, and because they would cost poor people disproportionately. He argued that technological, and above all social development would result in a natural decrease of both population growth and environmental damage.[47] Ehrlich denies any type of racism, and has argued that if his policy ideas were implemented properly they would not be repressive.[48]

In a 2018 interview with The Guardian, Ehrlich, while still proud of The Population Bomb for starting a worldwide debate on the issues of population, acknowledged weaknesses of the book including not placing enough emphasis on overconsumption and inequality, and countering accusations of racism. He argues "too many rich people in the world is a major threat to the human future, and cultural and genetic diversity are great human resources." He advocated for an "unprecedented redistribution of wealth" in order to mitigate the problem of overconsumption of resources by the world's wealthy, but said "the rich who now run the global system — that hold the annual 'world destroyer' meetings in Davos — are unlikely to let it happen."[40]

Ehrlich and his colleague Rodolfo Dirzo argued in a 2022 perspective paper for the need to reduce fertility rates among "the overconsuming wealthy and middle classes", and wasteful consumption in general, with the ultimate goal being to reduce "the scale of the human enterprise" in order to mitigate the contemporary extinction crisis.[49]

### Simon–Ehrlich wager

The economist Julian Simon argued in 1980 that overpopulation is not a problem as such and that humanity will adapt to changing conditions. Simon argued that eventually human creativity will improve living standards, and that most resources were replaceable.[50] Simon stated that over hundreds of years, the prices of virtually all commodities had decreased significantly and persistently.[51] Ehrlich termed Simon the proponent of a "space-age cargo cult" of economists convinced that human creativity and ingenuity would create substitutes for scarce resources and reasserted the idea that population growth was outstripping the Earth's supplies of food, fresh water and minerals.[7] This exchange resulted in the Simon–Ehrlich wager, a bet about the trend of prices for resources during a ten-year period that was made with Simon in 1980.[7] Ehrlich was allowed to choose ten commodities that he predicted would become scarce and thus increase in price. Ehrlich chose mostly metals, and lost the bet, as their average price decreased by about 30% in the next 10 years. Simon and Ehrlich could not agree about the terms of a second bet.

### Ehrlich's response to critics

Ehrlich has argued that humanity has simply deferred the disaster by the use of more intensive agricultural techniques, such as those introduced during the Green Revolution. Ehrlich claims that increasing populations and affluence are increasingly stressing the global environment, due to such factors as loss of biodiversity, overfishing, global warming, urbanization, chemical pollution and competition for raw materials.[52] He maintains that due to growing global incomes, reducing consumption and human population is critical to protecting the environment and maintaining living standards, and that current rates of growth are still too great for a sustainable future.[53][54][55][56]

## Other activities

Ehrlich was one of the initiators of the group Zero Population Growth (renamed Population Connection) in 1968, along with Richard Bowers and Charles Lee Remington.[57] In 1971, Ehrlich was elected to the Common Cause National Governing Board. He and his wife Anne were part of the board of advisers of the Federation for American Immigration Reform until 2003. He is currently a patron of Population Matters, (formerly known as the Optimum Population Trust).[58]

Consistent with his concern about the impact of pollution and in response to a doctoral dissertation by his student Edward Goth III, Ehrlich wrote in 1977 that, "Fluorides have been shown to concentrate in food chains, and evidence suggesting a potential for significant ecological effects is accumulating."[59]

Ehrlich has spoken at conferences in Israel on the issue of desertification. He has argued "true Zionists should have small families".[60]

## Personal life

Ehrlich has been married to Anne H. Ehrlich (née Howland) since December 1954; they have one daughter, Lisa Marie.[61] He announced that he had had a vasectomy in 1963 after his child's birth.[62]

## Awards and honors

* The John Muir Award of the Sierra Club
* The Gold Medal Award of the World Wildlife Fund International
* A MacArthur Prize Fellowship
* The Crafoord Prize, awarded by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences and considered the highest award given in the field of ecology
* ECI Prize winner in terrestrial ecology, 1993
* A World Ecology Award from the International Center for Tropical Ecology, University of Missouri, 1993
* The Volvo Environmental Prize, 1993
* The United Nations Sasakawa Environment Prize, 1994
* The 1st Annual Heinz Award in the Environment (with Anne Ehrlich), 1995[63]
* The Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement, 1998
* The Dr. A. H. Heineken Prize for Environmental Sciences, 1998
* The Blue Planet Prize, 1999
* The Eminent Ecologist Award of the Ecological Society of America, 2001
* The Distinguished Scientist Award of the American Institute of Biological Sciences, 2001
* Ramon Margalef Prize in Ecology of the Generalitat of Catalonia, 2009[64]
* Fellow of the Royal Society of London 2012[1]
* 2013 BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Award in Ecology and Conservation Biology

## Works

### Books

* How to Know the Butterflies (1960)
* Process of Evolution (1963)
* Butterflies and Plants: A Study in Coevolution (1964)
* The Population Bomb (1968, revised 1971, updated 1978, re-issued 1988, 1998, 2008 and 2018)
* Population, Resources, Environments: Issues in Human Ecology (1970)
* How to Be a Survivor (1971)
* Man and the Ecosphere: Readings from Scientific American (1971)
* Population, Resources, Environments: Issues in Human Ecology Second Edition (1972)
* Human Ecology: Problems and Solutions (1973)
* Introductory Biology (1973)
* The End of Affluence (1975)
* Biology and Society (1976)
* Ecoscience: Population, Resources, Environment (1978)
* The Race Bomb (1978)
* Extinction (1981)
* The Golden Door: International Migration, Mexico, and the United States (1981)
* The Cold and the Dark: The World after Nuclear War (1984, with Carl Sagan, Donald Kennedy, and Walter Orr Roberts)
* The Machinery of Nature: The Living World Around Us and How it Works (1986)
* Earth (1987, co-authored with Anne Ehrlich)
* Science of Ecology (1987, with Joan Roughgarden)
* The Cassandra Conference: Resources and the Human Predicament (1988)
* The Birder's Handbook: A field Guide to the Natural History of North American Birds (1988, with David S. Dobkin and Darryl Wheye)
* New World, New Mind: Moving Towards Conscious Evolution (1988, co-authored with Robert E. Ornstein)[65]
* The Population Explosion (1990, with Anne Ehrlich)
* Healing the Planet: Strategies for Resolving the Environmental Crisis (1991, co-authored with Anne Ehrlich)
* Birds in Jeopardy: The Imperiled and Extinct Birds of the United States and Canada, Including Hawaii and Puerto Rico (1992, with David S. Dobkin and Darryl Wheye)
* The Stork and the Plow : The Equity Answer to the Human Dilemma (1995, with Anne Ehrlich and Gretchen C. Daily)
* A World of Wounds: Ecologists and the Human Dilemma (1997)
* Betrayal of Science and Reason: How Anti-Environment Rhetoric Threatens Our Future (1998, with Anne Ehrlich)
* Wild Solutions: How Biodiversity is Money in the Bank (2001, with Andrew Beattie)
* Human Natures: Genes, Cultures, and the Human Prospect (2002)
* One With Nineveh: Politics, Consumption, and the Human Future (2004, with Anne Ehrlich)
* On the Wings of Checkerspots: A Model System for Population Biology (2004, edited volume, co-edited with Ilkka Hanski)
* The Dominant Animal: Human Evolution and the Environment (2008, with Anne Ehrlich)
* Humanity on a Tightrope: Thoughts on Empathy, Family, and Big Changes for a Viable Future (2010, with Robert E. Ornstein)
* Conservation Biology for All (2010, edited volume, co-edited with Navjot S. Sodhi)
* Hope on Earth: A Conversation (2014, co-authored with Michael Charles Tobias) ISBN:978-0-226-11368-5
* Killing the Koala and Poisoning the Prairie: Australia, America and the Environment (2015, co-authored with Corey J. A. Bradshaw)
* The Annihilation of Nature: Human Extinction of Birds and Mammals (2015, with Anne Ehrlich and Gerardo Ceballos)[66]
* Jaws: The Story of a Hidden Epidemic (2018, with Sandra Kahn) ISBN:978-1503604131

### Papers

* Ehrlich, P. R. (2010). "The MAHB, the Culture Gap, and Some Really Inconvenient Truths". PLOS Biology 8 (4): e1000330. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1000330. PMID 20386722.
* Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Barnosky, Anthony D.; García, Andrés; Pringle, Robert M.; Palmer, Todd M. (2015). "Accelerated modern human–induced species losses: Entering the sixth mass extinction". Science Advances 1 (5): e1400253. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1400253. PMID 26601195. Bibcode: 2015SciA....1E0253C.
* Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Dirzo, Rodolfo (23 May 2017). "Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines". PNAS 114 (30): E6089–E6096. doi:10.1073/pnas.1704949114. PMID 28696295. Bibcode: 2017PNAS..114E6089C.
* Dirzo, Rodolfo; Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R. (2022). "Circling the drain: the extinction crisis and the future of humanity". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 377 (1857). doi:10.1098/rstb.2021.0378. PMID 35757873.

## See also

* Demography
* Population Connection (formerly Zero Population Growth), a non-profit founded by Ehrlich
* Malthusianism
* Netherlands fallacy
* Escape and radiate coevolution

## Notes

## References

1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Professor Paul R. Ehrlich ForMemRS, The Royal Society, retrieved September 26, 2012.
2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 Haberman, Clyde (May 31, 2015). "The Unrealized Horrors of Population Explosion". The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/01/us/the-unrealized-horrors-of-population-explosion.html.
3. ↑ Waters, Hannah (April 22, 2016). "Why Didn't the First Earth Day's Predictions Come True? It's Complicated". Smithsonian Magazine. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/why-didnt-first-earth-days-predictions-come-true-its-complicated-180958820/.
4. ↑ Mieszkowski, Katharine (2008-09-17). "Do we need population control?". Salon.com. http://www.salon.com/news/environment/feature/2008/09/17/population_control.
5. ↑ "The Population Bust: Demographic Decline and the End of Capitalism as We Know It". Foreign Affairs. September 2019. "Ehrlich's prophecy, of course, proved wrong, for reasons that Bricker and Ibbitson elegantly chart in Empty Planet.".
6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Leaders from the 1960s: A Biographical Sourcebook of American Activism. Greenwood Press, 1994. 1994. p. 318. ISBN 9780313274145. https://books.google.com/books?id=oHYD-XUiSBEC&pg=PA318.
7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 Tierney, John (December 2, 1990). "Betting on the Planet". The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/1990/12/02/magazine/betting-on-the-planet.html?pagewanted=print&src=pm.
8. ↑ "Is Overpopulation a Legitimate Threat to Humanity and the Planet?". The New York Times. June 8, 2015. https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2015/06/08/is-overpopulation-a-legitimate-threat-to-humanity-and-the-planet.
9. ↑ Murtaugh, Paul A. (June 8, 2015). "Paul Ehrlich's Population Bomb Argument Was Right". The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2015/06/08/is-overpopulation-a-legitimate-threat-to-humanity-and-the-planet/paul-ehrlichs-population-bomb-argument-was-right. "Ehrlich's argument that expanding human populations cannot be sustained on an Earth with finite carrying capacity is irrefutable and, indeed, almost tautological. The only uncertainty concerns the timing and severity of the rebalancing that must inevitably occur."
10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 Ronald Bailey (30 December 2010). "Cracked Crystal Ball: Environmental Catastrophe Edition". reason.com – Free minds and free markets. Reason Foundation. http://reason.com/blog/2010/12/30/cracked-crystal-ball-environme.
11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 11.2 Ehrlich, Paul (13 August 2004). "When Paul's Said and Done". Grist Magazine. http://www.grist.org/comments/interactivist/2004/08/09/ehrlich/index1.html. Retrieved 24 Sep 2015. "Some things I predicted have not come to pass.".
12. ↑ Last JV (2013) What to expect when no one's expecting, Encounter Books, New York, pp 7.
13. ↑ Pearce, Fred (June 8, 2015). "Overconsumption Is a Grave Threat to Humanity". The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2015/06/08/is-overpopulation-a-legitimate-threat-to-humanity-and-the-planet/overconsumption-is-a-grave-threat-to-humanity. "Ehrlich was right, however, to point out that humanity’s impact on the planet is a combination of three elements: our numbers, our consumption patterns and how we produce what we consume. So, because massive poverty and unmet demand for basic goods is a widespread problem in much of the poor world today, we still face a “consumption bomb" — our growing demands for both consumer goods and life necessities are responsible for runaway climate change and the depletion of soils, water and other essential planetary life-support systems."
14. ↑ Phillip Adams; Kate MacDonald (19 November 2009). "PAUL EHRLICH". Radio National. ABC. http://www.abc.net.au/rn/latenightlive/stories/2009/2747139.htm.
15. ↑ Inherit the Holy Mountain: Religion and the Rise of American Environmentalism. Oxford University Press. 2017-09-15. p. 260. ISBN 9780190697945. https://books.google.com/books?id=bjooDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA260.
16. ↑ Polner, Murray. American Jewish Biographies, p. 88. Facts on File, 1982. ISBN:9780871964625. Accessed August 3, 2019. "his childhood his family moved to Maplewood, New Jersey, where he was graduated from Columbia High School in 1949."
17. ↑ Ehrlich, Paul R., "The Morphology, Phylogeny and Higher Classification of the Butterflies (Lepidoptera: Papilionoidea)," Ph.D. dissertation, University of Kansas, May 1957.
18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 Paul R. Ehrlich (2001). "PAUL R. EHRLICH". Paul R. Ehrlich Resume. Stanford University. http://www.stanford.edu/group/CCB/Staff/Paul EhrlichCV.PDF.
19. ↑ Lewis, J. "Biologist Paul R. Ehrlich. Six billion and counting". Scientific American October 2000, pages 30, 32.
20. ↑ Ehrlich, Paul R.; Raven, Peter H. (1964). "Butterflies and Plants: A Study in Coevolution". Evolution 18 (4): 586–608. doi:10.2307/2406212.
21. ↑ "Paul R. Ehrlich". Center for Conservation Biology – Department of Biology. Stanford University. 2013. http://www.stanford.edu/group/CCB/cgi-bin/ccb/content/paul-r-ehrlich.
22. ↑ 22.0 22.1 Tom Turner (2011). "Story: Paul Ehrlich, the Vindication of a Public Scholar". Spot.us. American Public Media. http://spot.us/pitches/135-paul-ehrlich-the-vindication-of-a-public-scholar/story.
23. ↑ 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.3 Paul R. Ehrlich; Anne H. Ehrlich (2009). "The Population Bomb Revisited". Electronic Journal of Sustainable Development 1 (3): 63–71. http://www.populationmedia.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/Population-Bomb-Revisited-Paul-Ehrlich-20096.pdf. Retrieved 2024-01-22.
24. ↑ 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.3 Dan Gardner (2010). Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail – and Why We Believe Them Anyway. Toronto: McClelland and Stewart. https://archive.org/details/futurebabblewhye0000gard.
25. ↑ Weisman, A. (2013). Countdown: Our Last, Best Hope for a Future on Earth?. Little, Brown. p. 44. ISBN 978-0-316-23650-8. https://books.google.com/books?id=t28FlWXoig0C&pg=PT44. Retrieved January 3, 2023.
26. ↑ Pilzer, P.Z. (2007). God Wants You to Be Rich: How and Why Everyone Can Enjoy Material and Spiritual Wealth in Our Abundant World. Touchstone. p. 49. ISBN 978-1-4165-4927-7. https://books.google.com/books?id=-VF7MwIsu6MC&pg=PA49. Retrieved January 3, 2023.
27. ↑ 27.0 27.1 27.2 Ehrlich, Paul R. (1968). The Population Bomb. Ballantine Books. https://archive.org/details/populationbomb00ehrl.
28. ↑ 28.0 28.1 "Food Security and Nutrition in the Last 50 Years", FAO Corporate Document Repository, publication date unavailable.
29. ↑ 29.0 29.1 Lomborg, Bjørn (2002). The skeptical environmentalist: Measuring the real state of the world. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. p. 350. ISBN 978-0-521-01068-9. "In 1967 Paul Ehrlich predicted that the world was headed for massive starvation and it was already too late to do anything about it. In order to limit the extent of this, he believed – reasonably enough given his point of view – that aid should be given only to those countries that would have a chance to make it through. According to Ehrlich, India was not among them. We must "announce that we will no longer send emergency aid to countries such as India where sober analysis shows a hopeless imbalance between food production and population ... Our inadequate aid ought to be reserved for those which can survive.""
30. ↑ Dan Gardner (2010). Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail – and Why We Believe Them Anyway. Toronto: McClelland and Stewart. In 2015 Ehrlich told Retro Report, "I do not think my language was too apocalyptic in The Population Bomb. My language would be even more apocalyptic today."
31. ↑ Massing, Michael (1 March 2003). "Does Democracy Avert Famine?". The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/01/arts/does-democracy-avert-famine.html.
32. ↑ Sachs, Jeffrey (26 October 1998). "The Real Causes of Famine". Time. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,989405,00.html.
33. ↑ Mann, Charles C. (January 2018). "The Book That Incited a Worldwide Fear of Overpopulation". Smithsonian Magazine. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/book-incited-worldwide-fear-overpopulation-180967499/.
34. ↑ Dan Gardner (2010). Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail – and Why We Believe Them Anyway. Toronto: McClelland and Stewart. p. 230.
35. ↑ Ehrlich, Paul R.; Ehrlich, Anne H. (1990). The population explosion. London: Hutchinson. pp. 39–40. ISBN 978-0091745516. https://archive.org/details/populationexplos00ehrl/page/39. Retrieved 20 July 2014.
36. ↑ Daily, Gretchen C.; Ehrlich, Anne H.; Ehrlich, Paul R. (July 1994). "Optimum Human Population Size". Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies (Human Sciences Press) 15 (6): 469–475. doi:10.1007/BF02211719. http://dieoff.org/page99.htm.
37. ↑ Katharine Mieszkowski (17 Sep 2008). "Do we need population control?". Salon.com. http://www.salon.com/2008/09/17/population_control/.
38. ↑ Hall, Eleanor (31 October 2011). "Population analyst warns of catastrophe". The World Today. http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2011/s3351962.htm.
39. ↑ "Longterm studies of the Bay checkerspot butterfly and feasibility of reintroduction". http://jrbp.stanford.edu/db/projects/project_display.php?project_id=80.
40. ↑ 40.0 40.1 Carrington, Damian (March 22, 2018). "Paul Ehrlich: 'Collapse of civilisation is a near certainty within decades'". The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/mar/22/collapse-civilisation-near-certain-decades-population-bomb-paul-ehrlich.
41. ↑ Crist, Eileen; Ripple, William J.; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Rees, William E.; Wolf, Christopher (2022). "Scientists' warning on population". Science of the Total Environment 845: 157166. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157166. PMID 35803428. Bibcode: 2022ScTEn.845o7166C. https://scientistswarning.forestry.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/Crist2022.pdf. "Environmental analysts regard a sustainable human population as one enjoying a modest, equitable middle-class standard of living on a planet retaining its biodiversity and with climate-related adversities minimized. Analysts' estimate of that population size vary between 2 and 4 billion people, a figure obviously well below the present 7.9.".
42. ↑ "The vision of the anointed — with Thomas Sowell (1995) | THINK TANK". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waEc4YbQQX0.
43. ↑ 43.0 43.1 Maxim Lott (December 30, 2010). "Eight Botched Environmental Forecasts". FOX News. http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/12/30/botched-environmental-forecasts/. "Again, not totally accurate, but I never claimed to predict the future with full accuracy"
44. ↑ Leonhardt, David (September 30, 2013). "Lessons From a Famous Bet". New York Times. https://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/09/30/lessons-from-a-famous-bet/.
45. ↑ Evans, Dylan (May 7, 2011). "Future Babble by Dan Gardner – review". The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/books/2011/may/07/future-babble-dan-gardner-review.
46. ↑ Commoner, Barry (May 1972). "A Bulletin Dialogue: on "The Closing Circle" — Response". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: 17–56. doi:10.1080/00963402.1972.11457931. https://books.google.com/books?id=pwsAAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA17.
47. ↑ Commoner, Barry (May 1972). "A Bulletin Dialogue: on "The Closing Circle" — Response". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: 17–56. doi:10.1080/00963402.1972.11457931. https://books.google.com/books?id=pwsAAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA17. "Population control (as distinct from voluntary, self-initiated control of fertility), no matter how disguised, involves some measure of political repression, and would burden the poor nations with the social cost of a situation — overpopulation — which is the current outcome of their previous exploitation, as colonies, by the wealthy nations.".
48. ↑ Paul Ehrlich; Shirley Feldman (1978). The Race Bomb. Ballantine Books.
49. ↑ Dirzo, Rodolfo; Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R. (2022). "Circling the drain: the extinction crisis and the future of humanity". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 377 (1857). doi:10.1098/rstb.2021.0378. PMID 35757873. "It is clear that only a giant change in human culture can significantly limit the extinction crisis. Humanity must face the need to reduce birth rates further, especially among the overconsuming wealthy and middle classes. In addition, a reduction of wasteful consumption will be necessary, accompanied by a transition away from environmentally malign technological choices such as private automobiles, plastic everything, and treating billionaires to space tourism. Otherwise growthmania will win; the human enterprise will not undergo the needed shrinkage, but will continue to expand, destroying most of biodiversity and further wrecking the life-support systems of humanity until global civilization collapses".
50. ↑ Simon, JL (June 27, 1980). "Resources, Population, Environment: An Oversupply of False Bad News". Science 208 (4451): 1431–1437. doi:10.1126/science.7384784. PMID 7384784. Bibcode: 1980Sci...208.1431S.
51. ↑ Bailey, Ronald (2015). The End of Doom. St. Martin's Press. pp. 38, 59. ISBN 978-1-250-05767-9. https://archive.org/details/endofdoomenviron0000bail/page/38. "...nearly all resources in the past were much more expensive than they are today"
52. ↑ Paul Ehrlich; Anne Ehrlich (2004). One with Nineveh: Politics, consumption, and the human future. Island Press.
53. ↑ Patt Morrison (12 February 2011). "Paul R. Ehrlich: Saving Earth". Los Angeles Times. https://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/12/opinion/la-oe-morrison-ehrlich-021211. "Consumption is equally important. I'd think the biggest problem is figuring out what to do on consumption. We don't have any consumption condoms."
54. ↑ Luiggi, Cristina (1 December 2010). "Still Ticking". The Scientist. LabX Media Group. http://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/29380/title/Still-Ticking/.
55. ↑ Ehrlich, Paul R.; Ehrlich, Anne H. (March 7, 2013). "Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?". Proceedings of the Royal Society 280 (1754): 20122845. doi:10.1098/rspb.2012.2845. PMID 23303549. Also see: Comment by Prof. Michael Kelly, disagreeing with the paper by Ehrlich and Ehrlich; and response by the authors.
56. ↑ Fraser, Colin (3 February 2008). "Green revolution could still blow up in our face". The Age. Fairfax Media. http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/02/02/1201801097280.html.
57. ↑ Dowbiggin 2008, p. 155.
58. ↑ "Population Matters Patron". http://www.populationmatters.org/about/people/patrons/.
59. ↑ Zelko F. Optimizing nature: Invoking the "natural" in the struggle over water fluoridation. History of Science. 2018; 1–22.
60. ↑ Ahituv, Netta (December 6, 2012). "'True Zionists should have small families' suggests Paul Ehrlich, 40 years after writing 'The Population Bomb'". Haaretz. http://www.haaretz.com/weekend/magazine/true-zionists-should-have-small-families-suggests-paul-ehrlich-40-years-after-writing-the-population-bomb.premium-1.483039.
61. ↑ "Whitney R. Harris World Ecology Center: Dr. Paul Ehrlich". icte.umsl.edu. http://icte.umsl.edu/WEArecipients/ehrlich.html.
62. ↑ Dowbiggin 2008, p. 154, 168.
63. ↑ "The Heinz Awards, Paul and Anne Ehrlich profile". Heinzawards.net. http://www.heinzawards.net/recipients/paul_anne_ehrlich.
64. ↑ "2009. Paul R. Ehrlich". http://presidencia.gencat.cat/ca/detalls/Article/2009.-Paul-R.-Ehrlich.
65. ↑ "New World New Mind — Pdf Edition". Ishkbooks.com. http://www.ishkbooks.com/NWNM/TOC.html.
66. ↑ Heneghan, Liam (2016). "Review of The Annihilation of Nature: Human Extinction of Birds and Mammals". Trends in Ecology & Evolution 31 (8): 583–584. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2016.06.002. https://mahb.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Awe-despair-Heneghan-2016.pdf.

### Cited books

* Dowbiggin, Ian Robert (2008). The Sterilization Movement and Global Fertility in the Twentieth Century. Oxford University Press. ISBN 9780195188585. https://archive.org/details/sterilizationmov0000dowb/.

## Further reading

* Robertson, Thomas. (2012) The Malthusian Moment: Global Population Growth and the Birth of American Environmentalism, Rutgers University Press: New Brunswick, New Jersey. ISBN:0813552729.

## External links

* Paul R. Ehrlich's faculty web page at Stanford University
* Biographical page at the International Center for Tropical Ecology, University of Missouri, St. Louis
* Paul R. Ehrlich on IMDb
* "The Population Bomb Revisited", Electronic Journal of Sustainable Development, 2009
* Several online Paul Ehrlich interviews
* "Plowboy Interview" of Paul Ehrlich, 1974 from Mother Earth News
* Paul R. Ehrlich and the prophets of doom A look at Ehrlich's treatment of exponential growth.
* Paul Ehrlich, a prophet of global population doom who is gloomier than ever. The Guardian . October 2011.
* Paul R. Ehrlich Papers (finding aid to an archival collection at Stanford University's University Archives, most not available online)

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