Robert Hall (economist)

Short description: American economist

Robert E. Hall

Born|  (1943-08-13) August 13, 1943 (age 82)

Palo Alto, California, U.S.

Nationality| American
Spouse(s)| Susan E. Woodward
Institution| Stanford University
Field| Macroeconomics
Alma mater| Massachusetts Institute of Technology
University of California, Berkeley
Doctoral
advisor| Robert Solow
Information at IDEAS / RePEc

Robert Ernest "Bob" Hall (born August 13, 1943) is an American economist who serves as a professor of economics at Stanford University, and as the Robert and Carole McNeil Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution.[1] He is generally considered a macroeconomist, but he describes himself as an applied economist.[2]

Hall received a BA in economics from the University of California, Berkeley, and a PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, writing a thesis titled Essays on the Theory of Wealth[3] under the supervision of Robert Solow.[4]

Hall is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, a fellow of both the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the Econometric Society, and a member of the NBER.[5] He has been the chairman of the Business Cycle Dating Committee, the body responsible for setting the start and end dates of U.S. economic recessions, since 1978.[6][7] Hall served as President of the American Economic Association in 2010,[8] and is a long-time member of the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity.[9]

## Ideas

Hall has a broad range of interests, including technology, competition, employment, and policy.

* Hall is perhaps most famous for co-designing a flat tax with Alvin Rabushka. They co-authored a book with the same name. The two often act as advisors to countries in Eastern Europe that wish to adopt the flat tax.
* In 1978, Hall changed the direction of research on consumption by showing that under rational expectations, consumption should be a martingale.[10] Prior to this, influenced by Milton Friedman's permanent income hypothesis under adaptive expectations, economists had expected past income to affect current consumption by altering individuals' expectations about their permanent income.[11] Instead, Hall's theory pointed to a relation between current consumption and expected future income, which implied that consumption should only change when there is surprising news about income. This, in turn, implies that changes in consumption should be unpredictable (which is called the 'martingale' property in statistics). Hall surprised the macroeconomic profession by providing evidence that consumption was, in fact, unpredictable. Subsequent evidence has shown that consumption is more predictable than he claimed,[12] but ever since Hall's paper most empirical research on consumption has taken the martingale case as the baseline and focused on what mechanisms could cause deviations from martingale consumption.[13]
* In 1982 Hall proposed the commodity based, alternative currency ANCAP.
* In describing if marginal cost is procyclical, Hall argued that the key is knowing the productivity shocks in real business cycle theory are actually the result of monopoly power. Because monopolies can sell where their price exceeds marginal cost, they tend to have excess capacity. Thus, as demand increases, the excess capacity shrinks and marginal cost approaches price and in that way it is procyclical. This idea captures the distinction between real productivity and productivity growth; while there is greater productivity (less is being wasted), workers aren't becoming more productive.
* To explain sticky wages, Hall emphasizes the importance of costs borne by the employer. Firms benefit when times are good but are penalized when times are slim (because wages are usually fixed) and they pay for searching for a good employee/employer match. Thus, employers are more risk averse in hiring and have less incentive to engage in search. Hence employers simply do not hire in down times. Since workers cannot collectively signal that they would work for less in down times, wages have a tendency to stick upwards.
* He also supported the Reagan tax cuts: "If we don't have a tax cut, there will be that much more room for pouring money down rat holes."[14]

## References

1. ↑ "CV.pdf" (in en). https://www.dropbox.com/s/a3x3uy8b8cdm7k2/CV.pdf?dl=0.
2. ↑ Webpage Robert Hall at Stanford.
3. ↑ Essays on the Theory of Wealth
4. ↑ "The productive career of Robert Solow" (in en). https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/12/27/131259/the-productive-career-of-robert-solow/.
5. ↑ "CV.pdf" (in en). https://www.dropbox.com/s/a3x3uy8b8cdm7k2/CV.pdf?dl=0.
6. ↑ Business Cycle Dating Committee Members
7. ↑ The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee
8. ↑ American Economic Association: Past Presidents
9. ↑ Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
10. ↑ Robert E. Hall (1978), 'Stochastic implications of the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis'. Journal of Political Economy 86 (6), pp. 971-87.
11. ↑ Angus Deaton (1992), Understanding Consumption. Oxford University Press, ISBN 0-19-828824-7.
12. ↑ Marjorie A. Flavin (1981), 'The adjustment of consumption to changing expectations about future income'. Journal of Political Economy 89 (5), pp. 974-1009.
13. ↑ Angus Deaton (1991), 'Saving and liquidity constraints'. Econometrica 59 (5), pp. 1221-48.
14. ↑ Hall, Robert, 1981. “The Reagan Economic Plan – Discussion,” Supplement to San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank’s Economic Review, May, pp. 5-15. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/frbsfreview/rev_frbsf_19810501_seminar.pdf

## External links

* Stanford home page

Academic offices

Preceded by
Angus Deaton |  President of the American Economic Association
2010– 2011  | Succeeded by
Orley Ashenfelter

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