Super Bowl indicator

Short description: Theory that stock market performance can predict super bowl winners

The Super Bowl Indicator is a spurious correlation that says that the stock market's performance in a given year can be predicted based on the outcome of the Super Bowl of that year. It was "discovered" by Leonard Koppett in 1978[1] when he realized that it had never been wrong, until that point. This pseudo-macroeconomic concept states that if a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, then it will be a bear market (or down market), but if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) or a team that was in the NFL before the NFL/AFL merger wins, it will be a bull market (up market).

As of January 2022, the predictor had been right 41 out of 55 games, a 75% success rate.[2] Without retrospective predictions, i.e. after its invention in 1978, it had been correct in 29 out of 43 games, a success rate of 67%.

## Data

Year  | Team  | League  | Conference  | Market  | Correct

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2000  | Rams  | NFL  | NFC  |  | No
2001  | Ravens  | exp  | AFC  |  | Yes
2002  | Patriots  | AFL  | AFC  |  | Yes
2003  | Buccaneers  | exp  | NFC  |  | Yes
2004  | Patriots  | AFL  | AFC  |  | No
2005  | Patriots  | AFL  | AFC  |  | Yes
2006  | Steelers  | NFL  | AFC  |  | No
2007  | Colts  | NFL  | AFC  |  | No
2008  | Giants  | NFL  | NFC  |  | No
2009  | Steelers  | NFL  | AFC  |  | No
2010  | Saints  | NFL  | NFC  |  | Yes
2011  | Packers  | NFL  | NFC  |  | Yes
2012  | Giants  | NFL  | NFC  |  | Yes
2013  | Ravens  | exp  | AFC  |  | No
2014  | Seahawks  | exp  | NFC  |  | Yes
2015  | Patriots  | AFL  | AFC  |  | Yes
2016  | Broncos  | AFL  | AFC  |  | No
2017  | Patriots  | AFL  | AFC  |  | No
2018  | Eagles  | NFL  | NFC  |  | No
2019  | Patriots  | AFL  | AFC  |  | No
2020  | Chiefs  | AFL  | AFC  |  | No
2021  | Buccaneers  | exp  | NFC  |  | Yes
2022  | Rams  | NFL  | NFC  |  | No
2023  | Chiefs  | AFL  | AFC  |  | No
2024  | Chiefs  | AFL  | AFC  |  | No
2025  | Eagles  | NFL  | NFC  |  | Yes

## See also

* January barometer
* Calendar effect

## References

1. ↑ "Everything you want to know about the Super Bowl Indicator". 13 February 2022. https://techstory.in/everything-you-want-to-know-about-the-super-bowl-indicator/.
2. ↑ "Super Bowl Indicator Says Market Should Rise in 2022 If Rams Win". Forbes. 31 January 2022. https://www.forbes.com/sites/lcarrel/2022/01/31/super-bowl-indicator-says-if-rams-win-the-market-should-rise-in-2020/?sh=3253e8856456.

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