Critical community size

Short description: Minimum size of a closed population within which a pathogen can persist indefinitely

The critical community size (CCS) is the minimum size of a closed population within which a human-to-human, non-zoonotic pathogen can persist indefinitely.[1]

When the size of the closed population falls below the critical community size level, the low density of infected hosts causes extinction of the pathogen.[2] This epidemiologic phenomenon was first identified during measles outbreaks in the 1950s.[1]

The critical community size depends on:[3]

* Speed of transmission
* How long until a person who has recovered remains immune
* Fatality rate
* Birth and death rate in the general population

## See also

* Compartmental models in epidemiology - Type of mathematical model used for infectious diseases
* Social:Epidemiology
* Medicine:Force of infection - Rate at which susceptible individuals acquire an infectious disease
* Biology:Mathematical modelling of infectious disease - Using mathematical models to understand infectious disease transmission
* Medicine:Transmission risks and rates

## References

1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Bartlett, M. S. (1960). "The critical community size for measles in the United States". Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General) 123 (1): 37–44. doi:10.2307/2343186.
2. ↑ Haydon, Daniel T; Cleaveland, Sarah; Taylor, Louise H; Laurenson, M Karen (2002). "Identifying reservoirs of infection: a conceptual and practical challenge". Emerging Infectious Diseases 8 (12): 1468–1473. doi:10.3201/eid0812.010317. PMID 12498665.
3. ↑ "Modelling of contact tracing in determining critical community size for infectious diseases". Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 159. June 2022. doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112141.

## External links

* The Collection of Biostatistics Research Archive
* 'Epidemiology' – In: Philip S. Brachman, Medical Microbiology (fourth edition), US National Center for Biotechnology Information
* Monash Virtual Laboratory \- Simulations of epidemic spread across a landscape
* People's Epidemiology Library

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