Excess mortality

Short description: Public health measurements

The COVID-19 pandemic in Spain caused significant excess mortality (expected rate in black, with confidence intervals in gray). Reporting lags lead to undercounting in the latest (rightmost) data.

In epidemiology, the excess deaths or excess mortality is a measure of the increase in the number of deaths during a time period and/or in a certain group, as compared to the expected value or statistical trend during a reference period (typically of five years) or in a reference population. It may typically be measured in percentage points, or in number of deaths per time unit.

A short period of excess mortality that is followed by a compensating period of mortality deficit (i.e., fewer deaths than expected, because those people have died at a younger age) is quite common, and is also known as "harvesting". Mortality deficit in a particular time period can be caused by deaths displaced to an earlier time (due to harvesting by an event in the past) or deaths displaced to a future time (due to lives being saved, also called "avoided mortality").[1][2]

Mortality displacement is the occurrence of deaths at an earlier time than they would have otherwise occurred, meaning the deaths are displaced from the future into the present, resulting in a changed life expectancy.

As opposed to number of registered fatalities of a certain death cause, such as a specific virus, a temporary excess mortality, and the mortality displacement, are measures that reflect many combined causes. The dominant reason may be events such as heat waves, cold spells, epidemics and pandemics (especially influenza pandemics), famine or war, and allows for estimates of the mortality caused by those events combined with other indirect health effects. Excess mortality is also studied for certain groups of people, such as elder, men, unemployed, etcetera.

## Contents

* 1 Cause
* 1.1 Heat waves
* 1.2 Others
* 2 Measurement
* 3 References
* 4 External links

## Cause

### Heat waves

During heat waves, for instance, there are often additional deaths observed in the population, affecting especially older adults and those who are sick. After some periods with excess mortality, however, there has also been observed a decrease in overall mortality during the subsequent weeks. Such short-term forward shift in mortality rate is also referred to as harvesting effect. The subsequent, compensatory reduction in mortality suggests that the heat wave especially affected those whose health was already so compromised that they "would have died in the short-term anyway" due to other causes, meaning that not all the deaths caused by the heat wave could have been avoided by addressing the effects of heat waves.[3]

### Others

A Dutch research group analyzed data from 47 Western countries and found that excess mortality "remained high" since 2020, despite the widespread rollout of COVID vaccines and various containment measures. The study found there had been more than 3 million excess deaths across the US, Europe and Australia since 2020. While the study does not establish a link between COVID vaccinations and excess mortality, it argues that more research is needed in order to help better dictate future health policy.[4] Insurers link continued excess deaths to the continued damaging effects of covid infections on the population.[5] Academic research has also shown that healthcare-system pressures, postponed treatments, and delayed referrals during and after the pandemic contributed substantially to non-COVID excess mortality, particularly among patients with chronic conditions and cancer.[6]

In 2025, Japanese researchers reported that from 2022 to 2023 excess mortality and Covid-19 cases increased significantly in Japan, considering that as of March 2024 the country's rate of Covid-19 mRNA vaccination doses per capita became highest in the world. They presented several hypotheses about the increased excess deaths: Covid infections, adverse events associated with Covid-19 vaccines, and immune tolerance due to multiple injections. Given that mRNA-LNP formation is a cause for concern, they argued that it was extremely important to assess the impacts of nationwide Covid-19 vaccination. Also, they pointed out that the Japanese government has been unwilling to disclose statistical information about chronic illnesses, injuries, and deaths following Covid-19 vaccination since the government was criticized for mismanaging the data. After the data was carefully analyzed, it was found that there was little difference in susceptibility to Covid-19 infections between the vaccinated people and the unvaccinated, and the unvaccinated were less susceptible to Covid-19 infection than the vaccinated.[7]

## Measurement

Different institutions and initiatives offer weekly data to monitor excess mortality. Significant efforts to capture short term mortality data have been made along 2020 due to the pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its worldwide effects. Eurostat launched in April 2020 a collection of weekly death data that provide for most of the EU countries weekly death data series by 5-year age groups and sex in NUTS3 regions within the countries starting from the year 2000.[8] This temporary data collection was established in order to support the policy and research efforts related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Data are transmitted by the National Statistical Institutes on voluntary basis and it is being updated, depending on the country, weekly.[9]

In May 2020, the Human Mortality Database project launched a new data series, the Short-term Mortality Fluctuation series (STMF), offering freely available weekly death counts by age and sex for a growing number of countries (34 in October 2020), as well as a visualization tool that captures the excess mortality on a weekly basis. The STMF was established to provide data for scientific analysis of all-cause mortality fluctuations by week within each calendar year in standard formats. Part of the Human Mortality Database use a joint project of two teams based in the Laboratory of Demographic Data at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) and at the Department of Demography of the University of California, Berkeley (UCB).

The collaborative network EuroMOMO (European mortality monitoring activity), monitors mortality across 24 European countries in order to detect and measure excess deaths related to seasonal influenza, pandemics, and other public health threats. EuroMOMO is hosted and maintained by the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention of Copenhagen, Denmark. They offer regular reports (weekly bulletins), graphs and maps showing the present levels of mortality but the network does not publish openly data. Individual partners may decide to share openly some selected national data, like for instance, MoMo-Spain. The study centre at the Statens Serum Institut in Copenhagen publishes a weekly situation report and regular scientific articles. Periods of high excess mortality have also been described for the United States.[10]

## References

1. ↑ Islam, Nazrul; Shkolnikov, Vladimir M; Acosta, Rolando J; Klimkin, Ilya; Kawachi, Ichiro; Irizarry, Rafael A; Alicandro, Gianfranco; Khunti, Kamlesh et al. (2021). "Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020: age and sex disaggregated time series analysis in 29 high income countries" (in en). BMJ 373. doi:10.1136/bmj.n1137. ISSN 1756-1833. PMID 34011491.
2. ↑ Beaney, Thomas; Clarke, Jonathan M; Jain, Vageesh; Golestaneh, Amelia Kataria; Lyons, Gemma; Salman, David; Majeed, Azeem (2020). "Excess mortality: the gold standard in measuring the impact of COVID-19 worldwide?" (in en). Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine 113 (9): 329–334. doi:10.1177/0141076820956802. ISSN 0141-0768. PMID 32910871.
3. ↑ Huynen, M.M.; Martens, P.; Schram, D.; Weijenberg, M.P.; Kunst, A.E. (May 2001). "The Impact of Heat Waves and Cold Spells on Mortality Rates in the Dutch Population". Environmental Health Perspectives 109 (5): 463–470. doi:10.1289/ehp.01109463. PMID 11401757. Bibcode: 2001EnvHP.109..463H.
4. ↑ Emily Crane (6 June 2024). "Excess deaths since pandemic need to be 'thoroughly' investigated: study". New York Post. https://nypost.com/2024/06/06/us-news/covid-vaccines-may-have-helped-fuel-rise-in-excess-deaths-since-pandemic-study/.
5. ↑ Daniel Meier; Prachi Patkee (16 Sep 2024). "The future of excess mortality after COVID-19". Swiss Re Institute. https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/topics-and-risk-dialogues/health-and-longevity/covid-19-pandemic-synonymous-excess-mortality.html.
6. ↑ Fetzer, Thiemo; Rauh, Christopher; Schreiner, Clara (2024). "The hidden toll of the pandemic: Excess mortality in non-COVID-19 hospital patients". Journal of Health Economics 95 (C). doi:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2024.102882.
7. ↑ "Significant Increase in Excess Deaths after Repeated COVID-19 Vaccination in Japan". JMA Journal. 2025. doi:10.31662/jmaj.2024-0298.
8. ↑ "Weekly deaths – special data collection". Eurostat. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database.
9. ↑ "Weekly deaths – special data collection (demomwk)". Eurostat. 2020. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/en/demomwk_esms.htm.
10. ↑ Dushoff, Jonathan; Plotkin, Joshua B.; Viboud, Cecile; Earn, David J. D.; Simonsen, Lone (2006-01-15). "Mortality due to Influenza in the United States – An Annualized Regression Approach Using Multiple-Cause Mortality Data" (in en). American Journal of Epidemiology 163 (2): 181–187. doi:10.1093/aje/kwj024. ISSN 0002-9262. PMID 16319291. https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/163/2/181/95820. Retrieved 2020-05-17.

## External links

* Human Mortality Database, Short-term Mortality Fluctuation data series
* EuroMOMO Homepage
* CDC (US Center for Disease Control) Homepage
* Excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) – Our World in Data

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Original source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excess mortality. Read more

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