Climate change scenario

Short description: Hypothetical representation of potential future conditions

This page is about the theory behind developing and using scenarios. For actual predictions of future emissions and global warming temperatures, see climate change mitigation.

A climate change scenario is a hypothetical future based on a "set of key driving forces".[1]: 1812 Scenarios explore the long-term effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation.[2] Scenarios help to understand what the future may hold. They can show which decisions will have the most meaningful effects on mitigation and adaptation.

Closely related to climate change scenarios are pathways, which are more concrete and action-oriented. However, in the literature, the terms scenarios and pathways are often used interchangeably.[3]: 9

Many parameters influence climate change scenarios. Three important parameters are the number of people (and population growth), their economic activity and new technologies. Economic and energy models, such as World3 and POLES, quantify the effects of these parameters.

Climate change scenarios exist at a national, regional or global scale. Countries use scenario studies in order to better understand their decisions. This is useful when they are developing their adaptation plans or nationally determined contributions. International goals for mitigating climate change like the Paris Agreement are based on studying these scenarios. For example, the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C was a "key scientific input" into the 2018 United Nations Climate Change Conference.[4] Various pathways are considered in the report, describing scenarios for mitigation of global warming. Pathways include for example portfolios for energy supply and carbon dioxide removal.

## Contents

* 1 Terminology
* 2 Types
* 3 Purpose
* 4 Factors affecting future GHG emissions
* 5 Mitigation scenarios
* 5.1 Concentration scenarios
* 5.1.1 450 ppm
* 5.1.2 550 ppm
* 6 Commonly used pathway descriptions
* 6.1 Representative Concentration Pathway
* 6.2 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
* 7 National climate (change) projections
* 8 See also
* 9 References
* 10 External links

## Terminology

Four climate change scenarios, based on 2015 data.[5][6] Left: emissions pathways following the scenarios of (1) no policy, (2) current policy, (3) meeting the governments’ announcements with constant country decarbonization rates past 2030, and (4) meeting the governments’ announcements with higher rates of decarbonization past 2030. Right: global temperatures, depending on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted in each of the four scenarios.

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report defines scenario as follows: "A plausible description of how the future may develop based on a [...] set of assumptions about key driving forces and relationships."[7]: 1812 A set of scenarios shows a range of possible futures.

Scenarios are not predictions.[7]: 1812 Scenarios help decision makers to understand what will be the effects of a decision.

The concept of pathways is closely related. The formal definition of pathways is as follows: "The temporal evolution of natural and/or human systems towards a future state. [...] Pathway approaches [...] involve various dynamics, goals, and actors across different scales."[7]: 1810

In other words: pathways are a roadmap which list actions that need to be taken to make a scenario come true. Decision makers can use a pathway to make a plan, e.g. with regards to the timing of fossil-fuel phase out or the reduction of fossil fuel subsidies.

Pathways are more concrete and action-oriented compared to scenarios. They provide a roadmap for achieving desired climate targets. There can be several pathways to achieve the same scenario end point in future.

In the literature the terms scenarios and pathways are often used interchangeably.[8]: 9 The IPCC publications on the physical science basis tend to use scenarios more, whereas the publications on mitigation tend to use modelled emission and mitigation pathways as a term.[8]: 9

## Types

There are the following types of scenarios:[1]: 1813

* baseline scenarios
* concentrations scenarios
* emissions scenarios
* mitigation scenarios
* reference scenarios
* socio economic scenarios.

A baseline scenario is used as a reference for comparison against an alternative scenario, e.g., a mitigation scenario.[9] A wide range of quantitative projections of greenhouse gas emissions have been produced.[10] The "SRES" scenarios are "baseline" emissions scenarios (i.e., they assume that no future efforts are made to limit emissions),[11] and have been frequently used in the scientific literature (see Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for details).

## Purpose

Climate change scenarios can be thought of as stories of possible futures. They allow the description of factors that are difficult to quantify, such as governance, social structures, and institutions. There is considerable variety among scenarios, ranging from variants of sustainable development, to the collapse of social, economic, and environmental systems.[12]

## Factors affecting future GHG emissions

See also: Eco-economic decoupling and Sustainability

The following parameters influence what the scenarios look like: future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change. No strong patterns were found in the relationship between economic activity and GHG emissions. Economic growth was found to be compatible with increasing or decreasing GHG emissions. In the latter case, emissions growth is mediated by increased energy efficiency, shifts to non-fossil energy sources, and/or shifts to a post-industrial (service-based) economy.

Factors affecting the emission projections include:

* Population projections: All other factors being equal, lower population projections result in lower emissions projections.
* Economic development: Economic activity is a dominant driver of energy demand and thus of GHG emissions.
* Energy use: Future changes in energy systems are a fundamental determinant of future GHG emissions.
* Energy intensity: This is the total primary energy supply (TPES) per unit of GDP.[13] In all of the baseline scenarios assessments, energy intensity was projected to improve significantly over the 21st century. The uncertainty range in projected energy intensity was large.[14]
* Carbon intensity: This is the CO2 emissions per unit of TPES. Compared with other scenarios, Fisher et al. (2007) found that the carbon intensity was more constant in scenarios where no climate policy had been assumed.[14] The uncertainty range in projected carbon intensity was large. At the high end of the range, some scenarios contained the projection that energy technologies without CO2 emissions would become competitive without climate policy. These projections were based on the assumption of increasing fossil fuel prices and rapid technological progress in carbon-free technologies. Scenarios with a low improvement in carbon intensity coincided with scenarios that had a large fossil fuel base, less resistance to coal consumption, or lower technology development rates for fossil-free technologies.
* Land-use change: Land-use change plays an important role in climate change, impacting on emissions, sequestration and albedo. One of the dominant drivers in land-use change is food demand. Population and economic growth are the most significant drivers of food demand.[15] In producing scenarios, an important consideration is how social and economic development will progress in developing countries.[14] If, for example, developing countries were to follow a development pathway similar to the current industrialized countries, it could lead to a very large increase in emissions. Emissions do not only depend on the growth rate of the economy. Other factors include the structural changes in the production system, technological patterns in sectors such as energy, geographical distribution of human settlements and urban structures (this affects, for example, transportation requirements), consumption patterns (e.g., housing patterns, leisure activities, etc.), and trade patterns the degree of protectionism and the creation of regional trading blocks can affect availability to technology.

In the majority of studies, the following relationships were found (but are not proof of causation):[12]

* Rising GHGs: This was associated with scenarios having a growing, post-industrial economy with globalization, mostly with low government intervention and generally high levels of competition. Income equality declined within nations, but there was no clear pattern in social equity or international income equality.
* Falling GHGs: In some of these scenarios, GDP rose. Other scenarios showed economic activity limited at an ecologically sustainable level. Scenarios with falling emissions had a high level of government intervention in the economy. The majority of scenarios showed increased social equity and income equality within and among nations.

Predicted trends for greenhouse gas emissions are shown in different formats:

* Needed emissions cuts
* Pledges
* Recent and currently remaining carbon budget

## Mitigation scenarios

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions. If all countries achieve their current Paris Agreement pledges, average warming by 2100 will go far beyond the target of the Paris Agreement to keep warming "well below 2°C".

Climate change mitigation scenarios are possible futures in which global warming is reduced by deliberate actions, such as a comprehensive switch to energy sources other than fossil fuels. These are actions that minimize emissions so atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized at levels that restrict the adverse consequences of climate change. Using these scenarios, the examination of the impacts of different carbon prices on an economy is enabled within the framework of different levels of global aspirations.[16]

The Paris Agreement has the goal to keep the increase of global temperature below 2 °C, preferably below 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels to reduce effects of climate change.[17] A typical mitigation scenario is constructed by selecting a long-range target, such as a desired atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO
2), and then fitting the actions to the target, for example by placing a cap on net global and national emissions of greenhouse gases.

### Concentration scenarios

This figure depicts the rates at which global CO2 emissions must decline after 2024 to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5, 1.7, or 2.0 degrees Celsius without relying on net-negative emissions.[18]

Contributions to climate change, whether they cool or warm the Earth, are often described in terms of the radiative forcing or imbalance they introduce to the planet's energy budget. Now and in the future, anthropogenic carbon dioxide is believed to be the major component of this forcing, and the contribution of other components is often quantified in terms of "parts-per-million carbon dioxide equivalent" (ppm CO2e), or the increment/decrement in carbon dioxide concentrations which would create a radiative forcing of the same magnitude.

#### 450 ppm

The BLUE scenarios in the IEA's Energy Technology Perspectives publication of 2008 describe pathways to a long-range concentration of 450 ppm. Joseph Romm has sketched how to achieve this target through the application of 14 wedges.[19]

World Energy Outlook 2008, mentioned above, also describes a "450 Policy Scenario", in which extra energy investments to 2030 amount to $9.3 trillion over the Reference Scenario. The scenario also features, after 2020, the participation of major economies such as China and India in a global cap-and-trade scheme initially operating in OECD and European Union countries. Also the less conservative 450 ppm scenario calls for extensive deployment of negative emissions, i.e. the removal of CO
2 from the atmosphere. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OECD, "Achieving lower concentration targets (450 ppm) depends significantly on the use of BECCS".[20]

#### 550 ppm

This is the target advocated (as an upper bound) in the Stern Review. As approximately a doubling of CO
2 levels relative to preindustrial times, it implies a temperature increase of about three degrees, according to conventional estimates of climate sensitivity. Pacala and Socolow list 15 "wedges", any 7 of which in combination should suffice to keep CO
2 levels below 550 ppm.[21]

The International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook report for 2008 describes a "Reference Scenario" for the world's energy future "which assumes no new government policies beyond those already adopted by mid-2008", and then a "550 Policy Scenario" in which further policies are adopted, a mixture of "cap-and-trade systems, sectoral agreements and national measures". In the Reference Scenario, between 2006 and 2030 the world invests $26.3 trillion in energy-supply infrastructure; in the 550 Policy Scenario, a further $4.1 trillion is spent in this period, mostly on efficiency increases which deliver fuel cost savings of over $7 trillion.[22]

## Commonly used pathway descriptions

Closely related to climate change scenarios are pathways, which are more concrete and action-oriented.

The IPCC assessment reports talk about the following types of pathways:[1]: 1810

* 1.5°C pathway
* Adaptation pathways
* Climate-resilient pathways
* Development pathways
* Emission pathways
* Mitigation pathways
* Non-overshoot pathways
* Overshoot pathways
* Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
* Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)
* Transformation pathways

### Representative Concentration Pathway

Global mean near-surface air temperature and thermosteric sea-level rise anomalies relative to the 2000–2019 mean for RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) climate change scenarios[23]

This section is an excerpt from Representative Concentration Pathway[ edit ]

### Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

This section is an excerpt from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways[ edit ]

## National climate (change) projections

To explore a wide range of plausible climatic outcomes and to enhance confidence in the projections, national climate change projections are often generated from multiple general circulation models (GCMs). Such climate ensembles can take the form of perturbed physics ensembles (PPE), multi-model ensembles (MME), or initial condition ensembles (ICE).[24] As the spatial resolution of the underlying GCMs is typically quite coarse, the projections are often downscaled, either dynamically using regional climate models (RCMs), or statistically. Some projections include data from areas which are larger than the national boundaries, e.g. to more fully evaluate catchment areas of transboundary rivers.

Various countries have produced their national climate projections with feedback and/or interaction with stakeholders.[25] Such engagement efforts have helped tailoring the climate information to the stakeholders' needs, including the provision of sector-specific climate indicators such as degree-heating days.

Over 30 countries have reported national climate projections / scenarios in their most recent submissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Many European governments have also funded national information portals on climate change.[26]

* Australia: CCIA[27]
* California: Cal-Adapt[28]
* Netherlands: KNMI'14[29]
* Switzerland: CH2011[30] / CH2018[31]
* UK: UKCP09 / UKCP18[32][33]

For countries which lack adequate resources to develop their own climate change projections, organisations such as UNDP or FAO have sponsored development of projections and national adaptation programmes (NAPAs).[34][35]

Decision processes, such as decisionmaking under deep uncertainty, may use multiple climate scenarios to evaluate vulnerabilities and function for actions under many different potential futures. [36]

## See also

* Carbon budget
* Climate sensitivity
* Climate stabilization wedge
* CMIP
* Copernicus Programme
* Decarbonization pathways

## References

1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 IPCC, 2022: Annex I: Glossary [van Diemen, R., J.B.R. Matthews, V. Möller, J.S. Fuglestvedt, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Méndez, A. Reisinger, S. Semenov (eds)]. In IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, A. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, D. McCollum, M. Pathak, S. Some, P. Vyas, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi, A. Hasija, G. Lisboa, S. Luz, J. Malley, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. doi: 10.1017/9781009157926.020
2. ↑ Riahi, K., R. Schaeffer, J. Arango, K. Calvin, C. Guivarch, T. Hasegawa, K. Jiang, E. Kriegler, R. Matthews, G.P. Peters, A. Rao, S. Robertson, A.M. Sebbit, J. Steinberger, M. Tavoni, D.P. van Vuuren, 2022: Chapter 3: Mitigation pathways compatible with long-term goals. In IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, A. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, D. McCollum, M. Pathak, S. Some, P. Vyas, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi, A. Hasija, G. Lisboa, S. Luz, J. Malley, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. doi: 10.1017/9781009157926.005
3. ↑ IPCC, 2023: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 1-34, doi: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.001
4. ↑ ﻿Press release: Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C﻿ (Report). Incheon, Republic of Korea: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 8 October 2018. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/11/pr_181008_P48_spm_en.pdf. Retrieved 7 October 2018.
5. ↑ USGCRP (in en). ﻿Climate Science Special Report﻿ (Report). U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC. pp. 1–470. https://science2017.globalchange.gov/.
6. ↑ Fawcett, Allen A.; Iyer, Gokul C.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Hultman, Nathan E.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Rogelj, Joeri; Schuler, Reed et al. (2015-12-04). "Can Paris pledges avert severe climate change?" (in en). Science 350 (6265): 1168–1169. doi:10.1126/science.aad5761. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 26612835. Bibcode: 2015Sci...350.1168F. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aad5761.
7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 IPCC, 2022: Annex I: Glossary [van Diemen, R., J.B.R. Matthews, V. Möller, J.S. Fuglestvedt, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Méndez, A. Reisinger, S. Semenov (eds)]. In IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, A. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, D. McCollum, M. Pathak, S. Some, P. Vyas, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi, A. Hasija, G. Lisboa, S. Luz, J. Malley, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. doi: 10.1017/9781009157926.020
8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 IPCC, 2023: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 1-34, doi: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.001
9. ↑ IPCC (2007c). "Annex. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz et al. Eds."]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm.
10. ↑ Fisher, "Chapter 3: Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context", Archived copy, Sec. 3.1 Emissions scenarios, http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch3.html, retrieved 2012-09-08 , in IPCC AR4 WG3 (2007)
11. ↑ Morita, "Chapter 2, Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Scenarios and Implications", Archived copy, Sec. 2.5.1.1 IPCC Emissions Scenarios and the SRES Process, http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/068.htm, retrieved 2012-09-08 , in IPCC TAR WG3 (2001).
12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 Morita, T. (2001). "Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Scenarios and Implications. In: Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz et al. Eds."]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm.
13. ↑ Rogner, H.-H. (2007). "Introduction. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz et al. Eds."]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm.
14. ↑ 14.0 14.1 14.2 Fisher, B.S. (2007). "Issues related to mitigation in the long term context. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz et al. Eds."]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm.
15. ↑ Fisher, B.S. (2007). ""3.2.1.6 Land-use change and land-use management." In [book chapter: "Issues related to mitigation in the long term context." In [book]: "Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz et al. Eds.]"]. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch3s3-2-1-6.html.
16. ↑ Commonwealth of Australia, "Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios: Modeling report provided to the Climate Change Authority in support of its Caps and Targets Review," 2013. Retrieved 13 December 2018 from https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/a28424ae-cce9-48c9-aad2-56b3db0920a5/files/climate-change-mitigation-scenarios.pdf
17. ↑ UNFCCC. "The Paris Agreement". https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement.
18. ↑ Global Carbon Project (2024-11-03). "Global CO2 pathways using Remaining Carbon Budgets". Exeter, UK: University of Exeter. https://robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2024/.
19. ↑ Is 450 ppm (or less) politically possible? Part 2: The Solution
20. ↑ "OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Climate Change Chapter, pre-release version". OECD. 2011. http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/32/53/49082173.pdf.
21. ↑ Pacala, S.; Socolow, R. (13 August 2004). "Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies". Science 305 (5686): 968–972. doi:10.1126/science.1100103. PMID 15310891. Bibcode: 2004Sci...305..968P.
22. ↑ http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2008/fact_sheets_08.pdf World Energy Outlook 2008 Fact Sheet
23. ↑ Lyon, Christopher; Saupe, Erin E.; Smith, Christopher J.; Hill, Daniel J.; Beckerman, Andrew P.; Stringer, Lindsay C.; Marchant, Robert; McKay, James et al. (January 2022). "Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100" (in en). Global Change Biology 28 (2): 349–361. doi:10.1111/gcb.15871. ISSN 1354-1013. PMID 34558764. Bibcode: 2022GCBio..28..349L. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.15871.
24. ↑ Parker, Wendy S. (2012). "Whose Probabilities? Predicting Climate Change with Ensembles of Models" (in en). Philosophy of Science 77 (5): 985–997. doi:10.1086/656815. ISSN 0031-8248.
25. ↑ Skelton, Maurice; Porter, James J.; Dessai, Suraje; Bresch, David N.; Knutti, Reto (2017-04-26). "The social and scientific values that shape national climate scenarios: a comparison of the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK" (in en). Regional Environmental Change 17 (8): 2325–2338. doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1155-z. ISSN 1436-3798. PMID 32009852. Bibcode: 2017REnvC..17.2325S.
26. ↑ Füssel, Hans-Martin (2014). How Is Uncertainty Addressed in the Knowledge Base for National Adaptation Planning?. In Adapting to an Uncertain Climate. pp. 41-66: Springer, Cham. ISBN 978-3-319-04875-8.
27. ↑ Climate Change in Australia
28. ↑ California climate change scenarios and climate impact research
29. ↑ KNMI'14 Pictures of the future - Climate scenarios
30. ↑ "Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011 B". http://ch2011.ch/en/index.html.
31. ↑ CH2018 - New Climate Scenarios for Switzerland
32. ↑ UKCP18 Project announcement
33. ↑ UKCP18 Demonstration Projects (Met Office)
34. ↑ UNDP - Supporting Integrated Climate Change Strategies
35. ↑ UNFCCC - National Adaptation Programmes of Action - Introduction
36. ↑ Lempert, Robert J.; Lawrence, Judy; Kopp, Robert E.; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Reisinger, Andy; Grubb, Michael; Pasqualino, Roberto (2024-07-03). "The Use of Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty in the IPCC" (in en). Frontiers in Climate 6. doi:10.3389/fclim.2024.1380054. Bibcode: 2024FrCli...680054L. https://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP70531.html.

## External links

* UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles - Introduction;UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles (61 countries)

* v
* t
* e

Climate change

Overview

* Causes of climate change
* Effects of climate change
* Climate change mitigation
* Climate change adaptation
* By country and region

Causes

| Overview|

* Climate system
* Greenhouse effect (Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of Earth)
* Scientific consensus on climate change

|

Sources|

* Deforestation
* Fossil fuel
* Greenhouse gases
* Greenhouse gas emissions
* Carbon accounting
* Carbon footprint
* Carbon leakage
* from agriculture
* from wetlands
* World energy supply and consumption

History

* History of climate change policy and politics
* History of climate change science
* Svante Arrhenius
* James Hansen
* Charles David Keeling
* United Nations Climate Change conferences
* Years in climate change
* 2019
* 2020
* 2021
* 2022
* 2023
* 2024
* 2025
* 2026

Effects and issues

| Physical|

* Abrupt climate change
* Anoxic event
* Arctic methane emissions
* Arctic sea ice decline
* Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
* Drought
* Extreme weather
* Flood
* Coastal flooding
* Heat wave
* Marine
* Urban heat island
* Oceans
* acidification
* deoxygenation
* heat content
* sea surface temperature
* stratification
* temperature
* Ozone depletion
* Permafrost thaw
* Retreat of glaciers since 1850
* Sea level rise
* Season creep
* Climate sensitivity
* Tipping points in the climate system
* Tropical cyclones
* Water cycle
* Wildfires

|

Flora and fauna|

* Biomes
* Mass mortality event
* Birds
* Extinction risk
* Forest dieback
* Invasive species
* Marine life
* Plant biodiversity

Social and economic|

* Agriculture
* Livestock
* Multi-breadbasket failure
* In the United States
* Children
* Cities
* Civilizational collapse
* Crime
* Depopulation of settlements
* Destruction of cultural heritage
* Disability
* Economic impacts
* U.S. insurance industry
* Fisheries
* Gender
* Health
* Infectious diseases
* Mental health
* In the United Kingdom
* In the Philippines
* Human rights
* Indigenous peoples
* Migration
* Poverty
* Psychological impacts
* Security and conflict
* Urban flooding
* Water scarcity
* Water security

By country and region|

* Africa
* Americas
* Antarctica
* Arctic
* Asia
* Australia
* Caribbean
* Europe
* Middle East and North Africa
* Small island countries
* by individual country

Mitigation

| Economics and finance|

* Carbon budget
* Carbon emission trading
* Carbon offsets and credits
* Gold Standard (carbon offset standard)
* Carbon price
* Carbon tax
* Climate debt
* Climate finance
* Climate risk insurance
* Co-benefits of climate change mitigation
* Economics of climate change mitigation
* Fossil fuel divestment
* Green Climate Fund
* Low-carbon economy
* Net zero emissions

|

Energy|

* Carbon capture and storage
* Energy transition
* Fossil fuel phase-out
* Nuclear power
* Renewable energy
* Sustainable energy

Preserving and enhancing
carbon sinks|

* Blue carbon
* Carbon dioxide removal
* Carbon sequestration
* Direct air capture
* Carbon farming
* Climate-smart agriculture
* Forest management
* afforestation
* forestry for carbon sequestration
* REDD+
* reforestation
* Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF and AFOLU)
* Nature-based solutions

Other|

* Earth Strike
* Fridays for Future
* Geoengineering
* Individual action on climate change
* Positive tipping points
* Sustainable architecture
* Sustainable transport

Society and adaptation

| Society|

* Business action
* Climate action
* Climate emergency declaration
* Climate movement
* School Strike for Climate
* Denial
* Ecological grief
* Governance
* Justice
* Litigation
* Politics
* Public opinion
* Women

|

Adaptation|

* Adaptation strategies on the German coast
* Adaptive capacity
* Disaster risk reduction
* Ecosystem-based adaptation
* Flood control
* Loss and damage
* Managed retreat
* Nature-based solutions
* Resilience
* Risk
* Vulnerability
* The Adaptation Fund
* National Adaptation Programme of Action

Communication|

* Climate Change Performance Index
* Climate crisis (term)
* Climate spiral
* Education
* Media coverage
* Popular culture depictions
* art
* fiction
* video games
* Warming stripes

International agreements|

* Glasgow Climate Pact
* Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market
* Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets
* Kyoto Protocol
* Paris Agreement
* Cooperative mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement
* Nationally determined contributions
* Sustainable Development Goal 13
* United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Background and theory

| Measurements|

* Global surface temperature
* Instrumental temperature record
* Proxy
* Satellite temperature measurement

|

Theory|

* Albedo
* Carbon cycle
* atmospheric
* biologic
* oceanic
* permafrost
* Carbon sink
* Climate sensitivity
* Climate variability and change
* Cloud feedback
* Cloud forcing
* Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis
* Cryosphere
* Earth's energy budget
* Extreme event attribution
* Feedbacks
* Global warming potential
* Illustrative model of greenhouse effect on climate change
* Orbital forcing
* Radiative forcing

Research and modelling|

* Climate change scenario
* Climate model
* Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
* Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
* IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
* Paleoclimatology
* Representative Concentration Pathway
* Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

* '
* Category
* Glossary
* Index

* v
* t
* e

Atmospheric, oceanographic, cryospheric, and climate models

Model types

* Atmospheric model
* Oceanographic model
* Cryospheric model
* Climate model
* Numerical weather prediction
* Tropical cyclone forecast model
* Atmospheric dispersion modeling
* Chemical transport model
* Upper-atmospheric models
* Ensemble forecasting
* Model output statistics
* Meteorological reanalysis
* Parametrization

Specific models

| Climate|

* IGCM
* HadCM3
* HadGEM1
* GFDL CM2.X
* CGCM
* CCSM
* CESM
* CFSv2
* ECHAM

|

Global weather|

* IFS (ECMWF)
* FIM
* GEM / GDPS
* FV3 GFS
* MPAS
* NAEFS
* NAVGEM
* UM
* JMA-GSM
* GME / ICON
* ARPEGE

Regional and mesoscale atmospheric|

* NAM
* RR / RAP
* RAMS
* WRF
* RAQMS
* HIRLAM
* LAPS
* RPM
* HWRF

Regional and mesoscale oceanographic|

* HyCOM
* ROMS
* POM
* MOM
* FVCOM
* MITgcm
* FESOM
* ADCIRC

Atmospheric dispersion|

* ADMS
* AERMOD
* ATSTEP
* AUSTAL2000
* CALPUFF
* DISPERSION21
* ISC3
* MEMO
* MERCURE
* NAME
* OSPM
* PUFF-PLUME
* RIMPUFF
* SAFE AIR

Chemical transport|

* CLaMS
* MOZART
* GEOS-Chem

Land surface parametrization|

* JULES
* CLASS
* ISBA

Cryospheric models|

* CICE

Discontinued|

* AVN / MRF / GSM / GFS
* Eta
* LFM
* MM5
* NGM
* NOGAPS
* RUC

* Mathematical model
* Statistical model
* Scientific modelling
* Computer simulation

* v
* t
* e

Energy modeling

Models|

* ACEGES
* iNEMS
* MARKAL
* NEMS
* POLES

Open data|

* OpenEI
* Reegle

Lists|

* Open energy system databases
* Open energy system models

Concepts|

* Climate change mitigation scenarios
* Computer simulation
* Energy modeling
* Mathematical optimization
* Scenario analysis
* System dynamics

Applications|

* Electricity market
* Electric power transmission
* Energy market
* Energy planning
* Energy policy
* Integrated assessment modelling

People|

* Hartmut Bossel
* Mark Jacobson
* John Laitner
* John Weyant

Organizations|

* Energy Modeling Forum
* Openmod Initiative

Categories|

* Economics models
* Energy models

0.00

(0 votes)

Original source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate change scenario. Read more

|

Retrieved from "https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?title=Earth:Climate_change_scenario&oldid=3954163"
*[v]: View this template
*[t]: Discuss this template
*[e]: Edit this template