2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election

* * *

| <- 2003 | November 6, 2007 | 2011 ->

|
|

Turnout| 37.1%  2.9 pp
|  |  |

|
|

Nominee  | Steve Beshear | Ernie Fletcher |
Party  | Democratic | Republican
Running mate  | Daniel Mongiardo | Robbie Rudolph
Popular vote  | 619,552 | 435,773
Percentage  | 58.71% | 41.29%

* * *

County results

Congressional district results

Beshear:  50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%
Fletcher: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%

* * *

| Governor before election

Ernie Fletcher
Republican

| Elected Governor

Steve Beshear
Democratic

|

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The 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2007. In this election, incumbent Republican governor Ernie Fletcher ran for reelection to a second term but was soundly defeated by Democratic challenger Steve Beshear. A primary election to determine the Republican and Democratic nominees for governor was held on May 22, 2007, in which Fletcher and Beshear won their respective primaries.[1] Beshear's son Andy was elected Kentucky's State Attorney General in 2015[2] and Kentucky's Governor in 2019 and 2023.

## Background

[edit]

Fletcher came under increasing criticism from both parties after his involvement in a state employee hiring controversy, in which he was accused of illegally hiring merit system (civil service) employees for their political affiliations and loyalties. An investigation by Greg Stumbo, the attorney general of Kentucky, and a special grand jury led to the indictment of 13 Fletcher administration officials. Fletcher issued a blanket pardon for anyone in his administration (other than himself) who was or may have been involved in the scandal. Fletcher himself was later indicted by a grand jury for three misdemeanors: conspiracy, official misconduct and political discrimination. All were related to the merit-system investigation. On August 24, 2006, Fletcher reached a deal with Stumbo that led to the dismissal of the charges in exchange for Fletcher's acknowledgment that "the evidence strongly indicates wrongdoing by his administration with regard to personnel actions within the merit system. Further, the governor hereby states that these actions were inappropriate and that he regrets their occurrence and accepts responsibility for them as head of the executive branch of state government." (See Ernie Fletcher: Merit system investigation) Fletcher's approval rating as of May 11, 2007 was at 38%,[3] putting him among the lowest governors in the nation.

Former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup, who had lost reelection in 2006, and Paducah businessman Billy Harper challenged Fletcher in the Republican primary. Both had supported and worked for Fletcher's 2003 campaign. Despite his troubles, Fletcher was able to fend off the primary challenge, winning just over a majority of the vote (see below).

On the Democratic side, an increasingly competitive primary campaign developed. Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford spent over five million dollars, most of it being his own money, in the campaign, and picked Stumbo as his running mate for lieutenant governor. On May 7, Kentucky State Treasurer Jonathan Miller withdrew from the race and endorsed former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear. Lunsford, Beshear, state House Speaker Jody Richards, and former Lt. Gov. Steve Henry consistently polled significantly ahead of the other candidates. Given the crowded field, many believed a runoff election was likely between the top two finishers — which polls suggested would be Beshear and Lunsford — if no candidate was able to obtain at least 40% of the vote. Beshear, however, was able to avoid a runoff with 41% (see below).

## Democratic primary

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

* Steve Beshear – former Lt. Governor of Kentucky, 1983–1987; former attorney general of Kentucky, 1979–1983; former State Representative, 1974–1979.

* Running mate: State Senator Daniel Mongiardo, 2001–2007.

* Gatewood Galbraith – Attorney, Legalization of Marijuana and Industrial Hemp Advocate

* Running mate: Mark Wireman

* Steve Henry – former Lt. Governor of Kentucky, 1995–2003

* Running Mate: Fayette County Property Valuation Administrator Renee True, 1992-present

* Otis Hensley – Private contractor from Wallins Creek, Kentucky who received 3% of the vote in the Democratic primary in 2003.

* Running mate: Richard Robbins

* Bruce Lunsford – prominent Louisville businessman; sought the Democratic nomination for governor in 2003; withdrew four days before the primary, endorsing Jody Richards.

* Running mate: Greg Stumbo, Attorney General of Kentucky 2004–2007; former State Representative, 1985–2003.

* Jody Richards – State Representative, 1975–present (Speaker of the House, 1996–2007); received 47% of the vote in the Democratic primary for Governor of Kentucky in 2003.

* Running mate: John Y. Brown III, Kentucky Secretary of State 1995–2003.

### Polling

[edit]

Source  | Date  | Steve
Beshear  | Gatewood
Galbraith  | Steve
Henry  | Otis
Hensley  | Bruce
Lunsford  | Jody
Richards  | Jonathan
Miller

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Survey USA[4] | May 18–20, 2007  | 32% | 7%  | 17%  | 1%  | 23%  | 12%  | N/A
Penn, Schoen and Berland[5] | May 16–17, 2007  | 26% | N/A  | 13%  | N/A  | 22%  | 12%  | N/A
GarinHartYang Research[6] | May 14–15, 2007  | 35% | N/A  | 13%  | N/A  | 23%  | 12%  | N/A
Survey USA[7] | May 12–14, 2007  | 32% | 5%  | 18%  | 1%  | 23%  | 12%  | N/A
Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll[8] | May 10–14, 2007  | 27% | 4%  | 13%  | 1%  | 21%  | 7%  | N/A
Survey USA[9] | April 28–30, 2007  | 23%  | 6%  | 18%  | 1%  | 29% | 9%  | 7%
Mellman Group[10] | April 19–22, 2007  | 15%  | N/A  | 24% | N/A  | 16%  | 9%  | 20%
Survey USA[11] | March 31 – April 2, 2007  | 15%  | 8%  | 20% | 1%  | 20% | 12%  | 8%
Survey USA[12] | March 3–5, 2007  | 15%  | 6%  | 26% | 2%  | 7%  | 13%  | 8%
GarinHartYang Research[13] | February 20–22, 2007  | 21% | N/A  | 21% | N/A  | 8%  | 16%  | 8%

### Results

[edit]

Primary results by county:

Beshear

* Beshear—80-90%

* Beshear—70-80%

* Beshear—60-70%

* Beshear—50-60%

* Beshear—40-50%

* Beshear—30-40%

* Beshear—20-30%

Lunsford

* Lunsford—60-70%

* Lunsford—50-60%

* Lunsford—40-50%

* Lunsford—30-40%

Henry

* Henry—50-60%

* Henry—40-50%

* Henry—30-40%

Richards

* Richards—60-70%

* Richards—50-60%

* Richards—40-50%

* Richards—30-40%

* Richards—20-30%

Galbraith

* Galbraith—30-40%

Democratic primary results[14] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Democratic | Steve Beshear | 142,838  | 41.02%
| Democratic | Bruce Lunsford | 74,578  | 21.42%
| Democratic | Steve Henry | 60,893  | 17.49%
| Democratic | Jody Richards | 45,433  | 13.05%
| Democratic | Gatewood Galbraith | 20,704  | 5.95%
| Democratic | Otis Hensley  | 3,792  | 1.09%
Total votes | 348,238  | 100.00%

## Republican primary

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

* Ernie Fletcher – Incumbent governor of Kentucky, 2003–present; former U.S. representative for Kentucky's 6th congressional district, 1999–2003; former State Representative, 1995–1997

* Running mate: Robbie Rudolph, State Secretary of Executive Cabinet, 2006–2007; State Secretary of Finance, 2003–2006.

* Billy Harper – Businessman

* Running mate: Dick Wilson.

* Anne Northup – former U.S. representative for Kentucky's 3rd congressional district, 1997–2007; former State Representative, 1987–1997.

* Running mate: Jeff Hoover, state representative 1997–present.

### Polling

[edit]

Source  | Date  | Ernie
Fletcher  | Billy
Harper  | Anne
Northup

|
|
|
|

Survey USA[4] | May 18–20, 2007  | 44% | 17%  | 34%
Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll[8] | May 10–15, 2007  | 41% | 10%  | 26%
Survey USA[7] | May 12–14, 2007  | 44% | 14%  | 34%
Survey USA[9] | April 28–30, 2007  | 46% | 14%  | 34%
Survey USA[11] | March 31 – April 2, 2007  | 40% | 16%  | 31%
Survey USA[12] | March 3–5, 2007  | 33% | 13%  | 31%
Public Opinion Strategies[15] | January 28–29, 2007  | 39% | 10%  | 39%

### Results

[edit]

Primary results by county:

Fletcher

* 40–50%

* 50–60%

* 60–70%

* 70–80%

* 80–90%

Northup

* 40–50%

* 50–60%

* 60–70%

* 70–80%

Harper

* 50–60%

Republican primary results[14] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Republican | Ernie Fletcher (incumbent)  | 101,328  | 50.08%
| Republican | Anne Northup | 73,919  | 36.53%
| Republican | Billy Harper  | 27,092  | 13.39%
Total votes | 202,339  | 100.00%

## General election

[edit]

### Polling

[edit]

Source  | Date  | Steve
Beshear (D)  | Ernie
Fletcher (R)

|
|
|

Survey USA[16] | November 2–4, 2007  | 59% | 39%
Rasmussen Reports[17] | November 1, 2007  | 54% | 39%
Survey USA[18] | October 27–29, 2007  | 60% | 36%
Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll[19] | October 26–29, 2007  | 56% | 33%
Research 2000[20] | October 22–24, 2007  | 55% | 40%
Survey USA[21] | October 19–21, 2007  | 58% | 38%
Survey USA[22] | October 8–9, 2007  | 56% | 40%
Insider Advantage[23] | September 24–25, 2007  | 45% | 35%
Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll[24] | September 13–18, 2007  | 55% | 35%
Preston-Osborne[25] | September 13–17, 2007  | 51% | 36%
Research 2000[26] | September 10–13, 2007  | 56% | 39%
Survey USA[27] | September 8–10, 2007  | 58% | 39%
Survey USA[28] | August 4–6, 2007  | 58% | 37%
Preston-Osborne[29] | July 25 – August 2, 2007  | 49% | 31%
Survey USA[30] | July 14–16, 2007  | 59% | 36%
Insider Advantage[31] | July 8–9, 2007  | 41% | 38%
Rasmussen Reports[32] | May 24–25, 2007  | 51% | 35%
Survey USA[33] | May 23–24, 2007  | 62% | 34%

### Predictions

[edit]

Source  | Ranking  | As of

|
|

Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] | Likely D (flip) | November 1, 2007

### Results

[edit]

Fletcher conceded to Beshear at 9:00 PM on November 6.

Kentucky gubernatorial election, 2007  Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %  | ±%

|
|
|
|

| Democratic | Steve Beshear | 619,552  | 58.71%  | +13.74%
| Republican | Ernie Fletcher (incumbent)  | 435,773  | 41.29%  | −13.74%
Total votes  | 1,055,325  | 100.00%  | N/A
| Democratic gain from Republican

#### Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

* Anderson (Largest city: Lawrenceburg)
* Barren (Largest city: Glasgow)
* Bell (Largest city: Middlesboro)
* Bourbon (Largest city: Paris)
* Boyle (Largest city: Danville)
* Bracken (Largest city: Augusta)
* Breckinridge (Largest city: Hardinsburg)
* Bullitt (Largest city: Mount Washington)
* Caldwell (Largest city: Princeton)
* Calloway (Largest city: Murray)
* Campbell (Largest city: Fort Thomas)
* Carlisle (Largest city: Bardwell)
* Christian (Largest city: Hopkinsville)
* Clark (Largest city: Winchester)
* Crittenden (Largest city: Marion)
* Daviess (Largest city: Owensboro)
* Edmonson (Largest city: Brownsville)
* Fayette (Largest city: Lexington)
* Fleming (Largest city: Flemingsburg)
* Gallatin (Largest city: Warsaw)
* Grant (Largest city: Williamstown)
* Graves (Largest city: Mayfield)
* Hardin (Largest city: Elizabethtown)
* Harrison (Largest city: Cynthiana)
* Hart (Largest city: Horse Cave)
* Henry (Largest city: Eminence)
* Hickman (Largest city: Clinton)
* Hopkins (Largest city: Madisonville)
* Johnson (Largest city: Paintsville)
* Kenton (Largest city: Covington)
* LaRue (Largest city: Hodgenville)
* Leslie (Largest city: Hyden)
* Logan (Largest city: Russellville)
* Madison (Largest city: Richmond)
* Marshall (Largest city: Benton)
* Martin (Largest city: Inez)
* Mason (Largest city: Maysville)
* McCracken (Largest city: Paducah)
* Meade (Largest city: Brandenburg)
* Mercer (Largest city: Harrodsburg)
* Metcalfe (Largest city: Edmonton)
* Montgomery (Largest city: Mount Sterling)
* Nelson (Largest city: Bardstown)
* Nicholas (Largest city: Carlisle)
* Ohio (Largest city: Hartford)
* Owen (Largest city: Owenton)
* Owsley (Largest city: Booneville)
* Pendleton (Largest city: Falmouth)
* Powell (Largest city: Stanton)
* Robertson (largest municipality: Mount Olivet)
* Scott (Largest city: Georgetown)
* Shelby (Largest city: Shelbyville)
* Simpson (Largest city: Franklin)
* Spencer (Largest city: Taylorsville)
* Todd (Largest city: Elkton)
* Trigg (Largest city: Cadiz)
* Warren (Largest city: Bowling Green)
* Washington (Largest city: Springfield)

## See also

[edit]

* 2007 United States elections
* 2007 United States gubernatorial elections
* State of Kentucky
* Governors of Kentucky
* BluegrassReport.org—Kentucky politics blog run during Gov. Fletcher's administration

## References

[edit]

1. ^ LEX18 - Lexington, KY - News, Weather, Sports - Fletcher, Beshear To Face Off In Nov Archived May 21, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
2. ^ "Democratic Attorney General-elect Andy Beshear pledges cooperation with Republican Governor". WDRB. November 10, 2015. Retrieved January 7, 2024.
3. ^ "SurveyUSA News Poll #12133". Surveyusa.com. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
4. ^ a b Survey USA
5. ^ Penn, Schoen and Berland
6. ^ GarinHartYang Research Archived 2007-09-27 at the Wayback Machine
7. ^ a b Survey USA
8. ^ a b Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll
9. ^ a b Survey USA
10. ^ Mellman Group
11. ^ a b Survey USA
12. ^ a b Survey USA
13. ^ GarinHartYang Research
14. ^ a b "Kentucky State Board of Elections Welcome to the State Board of Elections". Elect.ky.gov. Archived from the original on August 24, 2011. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
15. ^ Steitzer, Stephenie (February 2, 2007). "Northup: Survey shows her tied with Fletcher". The Kentucky Post. Covington, Kentucky. p. A2.
16. ^ Survey USA
17. ^ Rasmussen Reports
18. ^ Survey USA
19. ^ Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll
20. ^ Research 2000
21. ^ Survey USA
22. ^ Survey USA
23. ^ Insider Advantage
24. ^ Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll
25. ^ Preston-Osborne
26. ^ Research 2000
27. ^ Survey USA
28. ^ Survey USA
29. ^ Preston-Osborne
30. ^ Survey USA
31. ^ Insider Advantage
32. ^ Rasmussen Reports
33. ^ Survey USA
34. ^ "22007 Gubernatorial Contests and Virginia General Assembly Update". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org.

## External links

[edit]

Candidates

* Steve Beshear for Governor (Archive)
* Ernie Fletcher for Governor (Archive)

Information

* Kentucky Secretary of State Filing Report
* Louisville Courier-Journal recap of Democratic primary
* Louisville Courier-Journal recap of Republican primary
* Unofficial Election results (live returns)

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* 1911
* 1915
* 1919
* 1923
* 1927
* 1931
* 1935
* 1939
* 1943
* 1947
* 1951
* 1955
* 1959
* 1963
* 1967
* 1971
* 1975
* 1979
* 1983
* 1987
* 1991
* 1995
* 1999
* 2003
* 2007
* 2011
* 2015
* 2019
* 2023
* 2027

|

Lieutenant gubernatorial elections|

* 1987
* 1991

Secretary of State elections|

* 2011
* 2015
* 2019
* 2023

Attorney General elections|

* 2011
* 2015
* 2019
* 2023

Auditor of Public Accounts elections|

* 2011

State Treasurer elections|

* 2011

Commissioner of Agriculture elections|

* 2011

Legislative elections|

| Senate elections|

* 1996
* 1998
* 2000
* 2002
* 2004
* 2006
* 2008
* 2010
* 2012
* 2014
* 2016
* 2018
* 2020
* 2022
* 2024
* 2026
* Special

|

House of Representatives elections|

* 2004
* ...
* 2014
* 2016
* 2018
* 2020
* 2022
* 2024
* 2026
* Special

Judicial elections|

| Supreme Court elections|

* 2024

|

Ballot questions|

* 2004 Amendment 1
* 2022 Amendment 2
* 2024 Amendment 2

Federal elections

| Presidential elections|

* 1792
* 1796
* 1800
* 1804
* 1808
* 1812
* 1816
* 1820
* 1824
* 1828
* 1832
* 1836
* 1840
* 1844
* 1848
* 1852
* 1856
* 1860
* 1864
* 1868
* 1872
* 1876
* 1880
* 1884
* 1888
* 1892
* 1896
* 1900
* 1904
* 1908
* 1912
* 1916
* 1920
* 1924
* 1928
* 1932
* 1936
* 1940
* 1944
* 1948
* 1952
* 1956
* 1960
* 1964
* 1968
* 1972
* 1976
* 1980
* 1984
* 1988
* 1992
* 1996
* 2000
* 2004
* 2008
* 2012
* 2016
* 2020
* 2024

|

Presidential primaries|

| Democratic|

* 1996
* 2000
* 2004
* 2008
* 2012
* 2016
* 2020
* 2024

|

Republican|

* 2004
* 2008
* ...
* 2024

Senate elections|

| Class 2|

* 1900
* 1906
* 1912
* 1918
* 1924
* 1930
* Special
* Regular
* 1936
* 1940 (sp)
* 1942
* 1946 (sp)
* 1948
* 1952 (sp)
* 1954
* 1956 (sp)
* 1960
* 1966
* 1972
* 1978
* 1984
* 1990
* 1996
* 2002
* 2008
* 2014
* 2020
* 2026

|

Class 3|

* 1902
* 1908
* 1914
* Special
* Regular
* 1920
* 1926
* 1932
* 1938
* 1944
* 1950
* Special
* Regular
* 1956
* 1962
* 1968
* 1974
* 1980
* 1986
* 1992
* 1998
* 2004
* 2010
* 2016
* 2022

House of Representatives elections|

| Regular|

* 1792
* ...
* 1808
* 1810
* 1812
* 1814
* 1816
* 1818
* 1820
* 1822
* 1824
* 1827
* 1829
* ...
* 2000
* 2002
* 2004
* 2006
* 2008
* 2010
* 2012
* 2014
* 2016
* 2018
* 2020
* 2022
* 2024
* 2026

|

Special|

* 1814 (2nd)
* 1816 (1st)
* 1821 (8th)
* 1825 (3rd)
* 1826 (5th)
* 1826 (12th)
* 1827 (11th)
* 1828 (2nd)
* 2004 (6th)

Municipal elections

| Lexington|

| Mayoral elections|

* 2010
* 2014
* 2018
* 2022
* 2026

|

Louisville|

| Mayoral elections|

* 2006
* 2010
* 2014
* 2018
* 2022
* 2026

|

Metro Council elections|

* 2024

See also: Political party strength in Kentucky
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