2008 Missouri gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2008 United States gubernatorial elections.

2008 Missouri gubernatorial election

* * *

| <- 2004 | November 4, 2008 | 2012 ->

|
|

|  |  |

|
|

Nominee  | Jay Nixon | Kenny Hulshof |
Party  | Democratic | Republican
Popular vote  | 1,680,661 | 1,136,364
Percentage  | 58.40% | 39.49%

* * *

County results

Congressional district results

Precinct results

Nixon: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
Hulshof: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes

* * *

| Governor before election

Matt Blunt
Republican

| Elected Governor

Jay Nixon
Democratic

|

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* v
* t
* e

The 2008 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican Governor Matt Blunt decided to retire instead of seeking reelection to a second term in office. Despite John McCain narrowly carrying the state in the concurrent presidential election, Democratic nominee Jay Nixon won the open seat, defeating Republican nominee Kenny Hulshof in a landslide.

## Background

[edit]

On January 22, 2008, Governor Blunt unexpectedly announced that he would not seek re-election[1] because he had already "achieved virtually everything I set out to accomplish, and more ... Because I feel we have changed what I wanted to change in the first term, there is not the same sense of mission for a second."

A November 2007 poll conducted by SurveyUSA showed Blunt with a 44% approval rating.[2] His approval among Republicans polled was 68%, and his rating among Democrats was 23%.[2] On November 10, 2007, Democrat Jay Nixon filed the necessary paperwork with the Missouri Ethics Commission to launch a 2008 campaign for governor.[3]

The gubernatorial and other statewide office primaries were held August 5, 2008.[4] CQ Politics rated the race as 'Leans Democratic'.[5]

### Timeline

[edit]

* March 25, 2008 – Filing deadline for Democrats, Republicans and Libertarians[6]
* August 5, 2008 – Primary (gubernatorial and other statewide office) elections[6]
* August 19, 2008 – Filing deadline for other third parties and Independents[6]
* November 4, 2008 – General election.

## Primaries

[edit]

### Republican primary

[edit]

Republican primary results[7] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Republican | Kenny Hulshof | 194,556  | 49.2
| Republican | Sarah Steelman | 176,750  | 44.7
| Republican | Scott Long  | 18,745  | 4.7
| Republican | Jen Sievers  | 5,664  | 1.4
Total votes | 395,715  | 100.0

### Democratic primary

[edit]

Democratic primary results  Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Democratic | Jay Nixon | 303,796  | 85.0
| Democratic | Daniel Carroll  | 53,768  | 15.0
Total votes | 357,564  | 100.0

## General election

[edit]

### Predictions

[edit]

Source  | Ranking  | As of

|
|

The Cook Political Report[8] | Lean D (flip) | October 16, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report[9] | Likely D (flip) | November 2, 2008
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Lean D (flip) | November 3, 2008
Real Clear Politics[11] | Likely D (flip) | November 4, 2008

### Polling

[edit]

Source  | Date  | Kenny
Hulshof (R)  | Jay
Nixon (D)

|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[12] | November 2, 2008  | 38%  | 58%
Survey USA[13] | November 2, 2008  | 39%  | 54%
Survey USA[14] | October 26, 2008  | 38%  | 55%
Rasmussen Reports[15] | October 14, 2008  | 38%  | 57%
Survey USA[16] | September 24, 2008  | 37%  | 54%
Rasmussen Reports[15] | September 11, 2008  | 39%  | 54%
Public Policy Polling[17] | August 17, 2008  | 42%  | 48%
Survey USA[18] | July 31, 2008  | 42%  | 48%
Rasmussen Reports[15] | July 7, 2008  | 38%  | 49%
Rasmussen[19] | June 9, 2008  | 34%  | 54%
Survey USA[20] | May 20, 2008  | 33%  | 57%
Rasmussen[21] | May 8, 2008  | 35%  | 51%
Rasmussen[22] | March 24, 2008  | 37%  | 48%
Rasmussen[23] | February 13, 2008  | 30%  | 48%

Hypothetical polling

With Steelman

Source  | Date  | Sarah
Steelman (R)  | Jay
Nixon (D)

|
|
|

Survey USA[18] | July 31, 2008  | 41%  | 50%
Rasmussen Reports[15] | July 7, 2008  | 37%  | 46%
Rasmussen[19] | June 9, 2008  | 34%  | 56%
Survey USA[20] | May 20, 2008  | 33%  | 58%
Rasmussen[21] | May 8, 2008  | 35%  | 51%
Rasmussen[22] | March 24, 2008  | 39%  | 46%
Rasmussen[23] | February 13, 2008  | 35%  | 46%

With Blunt

Source  | Date  | Matt
Blunt (R)  | Jay
Nixon (D)

|
|
|

Rasmussen Reports[24] | December 12, 2007  | 42%  | 47%
Research2000[25] | November 24, 2007  | 42%  | 51%
Rasmussen[26] | October 10, 2007  | 44% | 43%
Rasmussen[26] | August 23, 2007  | 43%  | 46%
SurveyUSA[27] | July 25–27, 2007  | 38%  | 57%

### Results

[edit]

On election night, Nixon won easily, even though fellow Democrat Barack Obama lost in Missouri in the concurrent presidential election (albeit by only 4,000 votes). Nixon was able to perform well in rural parts of the state. When combined with heavily populated, strong Democratic areas like St. Louis and Kansas City, Hulshof didn't have a chance to come back. Nixon was declared the winner right when the polls closed in Missouri. Hulshof conceded defeat at 9:02 P.M. Central Time.

2008 Missouri gubernatorial election  Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %  | ±%

|
|
|
|

| Democratic | Jay Nixon | 1,680,611  | 58.4  | +10.6
| Republican | Kenny Hulshof | 1,136,364  | 39.5  | −11.3
| Libertarian | Andrew Finkenstadt  | 31,850  | 1.1  | +0.2
| Constitution | Gregory Thompson  | 28,941  | 1.0  | +0.6
| Write-in | 12  | 0.0  | n/a
Total votes  | 2,877,778  | 100.0  | n/a
| Democratic gain from Republican

#### Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

* Caldwell (Largest city: Hamilton)
* Daviess (Largest city: Gallatin)
* Gentry (Largest city: Albany)
* Crawford (Largest city: Cuba)
* Oregon (Largest city: Thayer)
* Vernon (Largest city: Nevada)
* Lincoln (Largest city: Troy)
* St. Clair (Largest city: Appleton City)
* Livingston (Largest city: Chillicothe)
* Andrew (Largest city: Savannah)
* Atchison (Largest city: Tarkio)
* Benton (Largest city: Warsaw)
* Camden (Largest city: Osage Beach)
* Carter (Largest city: Van Buren)
* Cass (Largest city: Harrisonville)
* Dallas (Largest city: Buffalo)
* Dent (Largest city: Salem)
* Douglas (Largest city: Ava)
* Howell (Largest city: West Plains)
* Laclede (Largest city: Lebanon)
* Maries (Largest city: Belle)
* Morgan (Largest city: Versailles)
* Ozark (Largest city: Gainesville)
* Pulaski (Largest city: Fort Leonard Wood)
* Polk (Largest city: Bolivar)
* Phelps (Largest city: Rolla)
* Ripley (Largest city: Doniphan)
* Texas (Largest city: Licking)
* Wright (Largest city: Mountain Grove)
* Webster (Largest city: Marshfield)
* Audrain (Largest city: Mexico)
* Bates (Largest city: Butler)
* Chariton (Largest city: Salisbury)
* Clark (Largest city: Kahoka)
* Dunklin (Largest city: Kennett)
* Franklin (Largest city: Washington)
* Henry (Largest city: Clinton)
* Hickory (Largest city: Hermitage)
* Howard (Largest city: Fayette)
* Iron (Largest city: Ironton)
* Knox (Largest city: Edina)
* Lafayette (Largest city: Odessa)
* Lewis (Largest city: Canton)
* Linn (Largest city: Brookfield)
* Madison (Largest city: Fredericktown)
* Nodaway (Largest city: Maryville)
* Pike (Largest city: Bowling Green)
* Reynolds (Largest city: Ellington)
* Scott (Largest city: Sikeston)
* Shannon (Largest city: Winona)
* St. Francois (Largest city: Farmington)
* Wayne (Largest city: Piedmont)
* Buchanan (Largest city: St. Joseph)
* Washington (Largest city: Potosi)
* Iron (largest city: Ironton)
* St. Charles (largest city: O'Fallon)
* Pettis (largest city: Sedalia)
* Adair (largest city: Kirksville)
* Greene (largest city: Springfield)
* Johnson (largest city: Warrensburg)
* Monroe (Largest city: Monroe City)

## See also

[edit]

* 2008 United States gubernatorial elections
* 2004 Missouri gubernatorial election
* 2008 Missouri lieutenant gubernatorial election
* 2008 United States presidential election in Missouri

## References

[edit]

1. ^ Shelton, Missy (January 22, 2008). "Governor Matt Blunt Will Not Seek Re-election". KSMU. Archived from the original on April 15, 2013. Retrieved July 18, 2021.
2. ^ a b Survey USA
3. ^ Article[permanent dead link] by Columbia Daily Tribune: Document points to Nixon run
4. ^ August 5, 2008 State Primary Election Information Missouri Secretary of State
5. ^ Dems Gain in Five of Six New CQ Politics Rating Changes Archived 2008-10-12 at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics, October 8, 2008
6. ^ a b c 2008 Missouri Election Calendar from the Missouri Secretary of State
7. ^ "Aug 5, 2008 Primary Election : Election Night Map : Missouri Secretary of State". Archived from the original on August 9, 2008. Retrieved August 6, 2008.
8. ^ "2008 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 4, 2021.
9. ^ "2008 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved May 25, 2021.
10. ^ "THE LAST LAST WORD The Crystal Ball's Final Projections for the 2008 Election". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 25, 2021.
11. ^ "2008 Missouri Governor Race". RealClearPolitics. November 4, 2008. Retrieved March 5, 2021.
12. ^ Public Policy Polling
13. ^ Survey USA
14. ^ Survey USA
15. ^ a b c d Rasmussen Reports
16. ^ Survey USA
17. ^ Public Policy Polling
18. ^ a b Survey USA
19. ^ a b Rasmussen
20. ^ a b Survey USA
21. ^ a b Rasmussen
22. ^ a b Rasmussen
23. ^ a b Rasmussen
24. ^ Rasmussen Reports
25. ^ Research2000[usurped]
26. ^ a b Rasmussen
27. ^ SurveyUSA

## External links

[edit]

* Elections from the Missouri Secretary of State
* Missouri Governor candidates at Project Vote Smart
* Missouri Governor race from OurCampaigns.com
* Missouri Governor race from 2008 Race Tracker
* Campaign contributions from Follow the Money
* Hulshof (R) vs Nixon (D) graph of collected polls from Pollster.com
* Official campaign websites (Archived)
* Jay Nixon, Democratic candidate
* Kenny Hulshof, Republican candidate
* Sarah Steelman, Republican candidate
* Andy Finkenstadt, Libertarian candidate

* v
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