2008 Northern Territory general election

Australian election

2008 Northern Territory general election

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| <- 2005 | 9 August 2008 (2008-08-09) | 2012 ->

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All 25 seats of the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
Turnout| 75.7 ( 4.4 pp)
|  | First party  | Second party

|
|

Leader  | Paul Henderson | Terry Mills
Party  | Labor | Country Liberal
Leader since  | 26 November 2007  | 29 January 2008
Leader's seat  | Wanguri | Blain
Last election  | 19 seats  | 4 seats
Seats won  | 13 | 11
Seat change  |  6  |  7
Popular vote  | 34,557  | 36,334
Percentage  | 43.18%  | 45.40%
Swing  |  8.76  |  9.67
TPP | 49.3%  | 50.7%
TPP |  9.2  |  9.2

* * *

* * *

| Chief Minister before election

Paul Henderson
Labor

| Elected Chief Minister

Paul Henderson
Labor

|

General elections were held in the Northern Territory of Australia on 9 August 2008.[1] Of the 25 seats in the Legislative Assembly, 23 were contested; two safe Labor seats were uncontested. The incumbent centre-left Labor Party (ALP), led by Chief Minister Paul Henderson won a narrow third term victory against the opposition centre-right Country Liberal Party (CLP), led by Terry Mills. Labor suffered a massive and unexpected swing against it, to hold a one-seat majority in the new parliament.[2][3][4]

## Results

[edit]

Main article: Results of the Northern Territory general election, 2008

↓ 13 | 1 | 11

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|

ALP | Ind | CLP
Results of the 2008 Northern Territory general election, Legislative Assembly[5]

Party| Votes| %| +/–| Seats| +/–
| Labor| 34,557| 43.18|  8.76| 13| -6
| Country Liberal| 36,334| 45.40|  9.67| 11| +7
| Independents| 5,696| 7.12|  1.04| 1| -1
| Greens| 3,442| 4.30|  0.13| 0| ±0
Total| 80,029| 100.00| –| 25| –
Valid votes| 80,029| 95.92| |
Invalid/blank votes| 3,407| 4.08| +0.34|
Total votes| 83,436| 100.00| –|
Registered voters/turnout| 110,289| 75.65| -5.70|
| Labor| 39,415| 49.25
| Country Liberal| 40,614| 50.75
Total| 80,029| 100.00

Independents: Gerry Wood

Arnhem and MacDonnell were won by the ALP by default as no other candidates nominated, and therefore do not contribute to votes in the above result table. The Greens ran in six of the 25 seats, averaging around 16 percent.[6] Minister for Natural Resources, Environment and Heritage, Minister for Parks and Wildlife Len Kiely was defeated as was Minister for Sport and Recreation, Corporate and Information Services Matthew Bonson.

| Popular vote

|  |
Country Liberal |

| 45.4%
Labor |

| 43.2%
Greens |

| 4.3%
Independents |

| 7.1%

| Two-party-preferred vote

|  |
Country Liberal |

| 50.7%
Labor |

| 49.3%

| Seats

|  |
Labor |

| 52.0%
Country Liberal |

| 44.0%
Independents |

| 4.00%

## Background

[edit]

The CLP had dominated the Legislative Assembly from its creation in 1974 until 2001, when Clare Martin led Labor to government by one seat. Four years later, Labor was reelected in a landslide that surprised even the most optimistic Labor observers, reducing the CLP to only four seats. Labor even managed to oust Opposition Leader Denis Burke in his own seat. Martin resigned in 2007, shortly after a federal intervention, and was succeeded by Education Minister Paul Henderson.

In January 2008, Opposition Leader Jodeen Carney faced a challenge from her deputy, Terry Mills. Carney rebuffed a proposal to swap posts with Mills (in which she would have become deputy leader under Mills), instead calling a spill. When the vote was tied, Carney declared that a tie vote was not a vote of confidence and resigned, leaving Mills to take the leadership unopposed. Hoping to take advantage of a booming economy and the recent change in opposition leadership, Henderson opted to call an election a year before it was due.

The writs were dropped only days after the gazetting of new electoral boundaries. The Electoral Commission didn't have nearly enough time to notify voters of their new electorates, and a number of Labor MPs swept into office on the back of the 2005 landslide were unable to connect with new constituents on the hustings.

The CLP regained much of what it had lost in its severe beating of three years prior. Notably, it retook two seats in Palmerston that it had lost to Labor in the 2005 landslide. While the CLP won a slim majority of the two-party vote (aided by two Labor incumbents being reelected unopposed), Labor retained all but one seat in northern Darwin, allowing it to win a third term. Labor was only assured of reelection when it won Martin's old seat of Fannie Bay by a narrow 78 votes.

## Key dates

[edit]

* Issue of writ: 22 July
* Close of roll: 8pm 24 July
* Close of nominations: 12 noon 28 July
* Postal voting commences: 31 July
* Pre-poll voting commences: 4 August
* Polling Day: 9 August

## Retiring members

[edit]

The following members did not seek another term at the election.

### Labor

[edit]

* Clare Martin (Fannie Bay)
* Elliot McAdam (Barkly)
* Syd Stirling (Nhulunbuy)

### Country Liberal

[edit]

* Fay Miller (Katherine)

### Independent

[edit]

* Loraine Braham (Braitling)

## Candidates

[edit]

Sitting members are listed in bold. Successful candidates are highlighted in the relevant colour.

Electorate  | Held by  | Labor candidate  | CLP candidate  | Greens candidate  | Independent candidates

|
|
|
|
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|  |  |  |  |
Arafura | Labor | Marion Scrymgour | Tristan Mungatopi
Angie Siebert |  | Jone Lotu
Araluen | CLP | John Gaynor | Jodeen Carney | Linda Chellew |
Arnhem | Labor | Malarndirri McCarthy |  |  |
Barkly | Labor | Gerry McCarthy | Mick Adams |  | Randall Gould
Barry Nattrass
Blain | CLP | Ken Vowles | Terry Mills |  |
Braitling | Independent | Aaron Dick | Adam Giles | Jane Clark | Eli Melky
Brennan | Labor | James Burke | Peter Chandler |  |
Casuarina | Labor | Kon Vatskalis | Gary Haslett |  |
Daly | Labor | Rob Knight | Wayne Connop | David Pollock | August Stevens
Drysdale | CLP | Chris Natt | Ross Bohlin |  | Justin Tutty
Fannie Bay | Labor | Michael Gunner | Garry Lambert |  |
Fong Lim | Labor | Matthew Bonson | Dave Tollner |  |
Goyder | CLP | Ted Warren | Kezia Purick |  |
Greatorex | CLP | Jo Nixon | Matt Conlan | Lenny Aronsten |
Johnston | Labor | Chris Burns | Jo Sangster |  |
Karama | Labor | Delia Lawrie | Tony Bacus |  | Dorothy Fox
Natalie Hunter
Katherine | CLP | Sharon Hillen | Willem Westra van Holthe |  | Toni Tapp Coutts
Macdonnell | Labor | Alison Anderson |  |  |
Nelson | Independent | Justine Luders-Searle | Maureen Kohlman |  | Gerry Wood
Nhulunbuy | Labor | Lynne Walker | Djwalpi Marika |  |
Nightcliff | Labor | Jane Aagaard | Peter Manning | Emma Young |
Port Darwin | Labor | Kerry Sacilotto | John Elferink | Gary Abbott |
Sanderson | Labor | Len Kiely | Peter Styles |  |
Stuart | Labor | Karl Hampton | Rex Granites Japanangka |  |
Wanguri | Labor | Paul Henderson | Kerry Kyriacou |  | Duncan Dean

## Seats changing hands

[edit]

Seat  | Pre-2008  | Swing  | Post-2008

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|
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Party  | Member  | Margin  | Margin  | Member  | Party
Braitling |  | Independent  | Loraine Braham | 0.9  | N/A  | 23.6*  | Adam Giles | Country Liberal  |
Brennan |  | Labor  | James Burke | 0.6  | 3.4  | 2.7  | Peter Chandler | Country Liberal  |
Drysdale**  |  | Labor  | Chris Natt | −0.5  | 9.6  | 10.1  | Ross Bohlin | Country Liberal  |
Fong Lim |  | Labor  | notional - new seat | 11.5 | 13.7  | 2.2  | Dave Tollner | Country Liberal  |
Goyder**  |  | Labor  | Ted Warren | -0.5  | 7.4  | 7.9  | Kezia Purick | Country Liberal  |
Port Darwin |  | Labor  | Kerry Sacilotto | 1.9  | 5.0  | 3.0  | John Elferink | Country Liberal  |
Sanderson |  | Labor  | Len Kiely | 10.0  | 17.4  | 7.4  | Peter Styles | Country Liberal  |

* Members listed in italics did not contest their seat at this election.
* *Braitling's second figure is CLP vs. Labor
* **Due to boundary changes, Drysdale and Goyder were notionally CLP at the time of this election. However, as they were held by members of the ALP at this time, they are still included in this table.

## Electoral pendulum

[edit]

The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in the Legislative Assembly according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two-party-preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.[7][8]

### Pre-election pendulum

[edit]

Incumbent members who have become and remained an independent since the 2012 election are indicated in grey.

Members listed in italics did not re-contest their seat at the election.

Labor seats

Marginal
Brennan | James Burke | ALP  | 0.6
Port Darwin | Kerry Sacilotto | ALP  | 1.9
Fairly safe
Safe
Sanderson | Len Kiely | ALP  | 10.0
Fong Lim | Matthew Bonson | ALP  | 11.5
Fannie Bay | Clare Martin | ALP  | 15.7
Nightcliff | Jane Aagaard | ALP  | 15.7
Daly | Robert Knight | ALP  | 15.8
Karama | Delia Lawrie | ALP  | 16.0
Macdonnell | Alison Anderson | ALP  | 16.5
Johnston | Chris Burns | ALP  | 16.8
Casuarina | Kon Vatskalis | ALP  | 18.3
Stuart | Karl Hampton | ALP  | 18.9
Very safe
Wanguri | Paul Henderson | ALP  | 20.8
Arnhem | Malarndirri McCarthy | ALP  | 21.3
Arafura | Marion Scrymgour | ALP  | 23.6
Barkly | Elliot McAdam | ALP  | 24.2
Nhulunbuy | Syd Stirling | ALP  | 25.5
Country Liberal seats

Marginal
Greatorex | Matt Conlan | CLP  | 0.4
Drysdale | Chris Natt | CLP  | 0.5
Goyder | Ted Warren | CLP  | 0.5
Katherine | Fay Miller | CLP  | 2.7
Blain | Terry Mills | CLP  | 5.7
Fairly safe
Araluen | Jodeen Carney | CLP  | 7.5
Independent seats
Braitling | Loraine Braham | IND  | 0.9 v CLP
Nelson | Gerry Wood | IND  | 16.6 v CLP

### Post-election pendulum

[edit]

Labor seats

Marginal
Fannie Bay | Michael Gunner | ALP  | 1.1
Daly | Robert Knight | ALP  | 5.6
Fairly safe
Johnston | Chris Burns | ALP  | 8.1
Safe
Nightcliff | Jane Aagaard | ALP  | 10.7
Karama | Delia Lawrie | ALP  | 10.8
Arafura | Marion Scrymgour | ALP  | 14.0
Casuarina | Kon Vatskalis | ALP  | 14.2
Wanguri | Paul Henderson | ALP  | 14.9
Stuart | Karl Hampton | ALP  | 15.1
Barkly | Gerry McCarthy | ALP  | 15.6
Very safe
Nhulunbuy | Lynne Walker | ALP  | 24.2
Arnhem | Malarndirri McCarthy | ALP  | Unopp
Macdonnell | Alison Anderson | ALP  | Unopp
Country Liberal seats

Marginal
Fong Lim | Dave Tollner | CLP  | 2.1
Brennan | Peter Chandler | CLP  | 2.6
Port Darwin | John Elferink | CLP  | 2.8
Fairly safe
Sanderson | Peter Styles | CLP  | 6.4
Goyder | Kezia Purick | CLP  | 8.4
Katherine | Willem W-v-Holthe | CLP  | 8.4
Safe
Drysdale | Ross Bohlin | CLP  | 10.1
Blain | Terry Mills | CLP  | 11.6
Greatorex | Matt Conlan | CLP  | 16.5
Very safe
Braitling | Adam Giles | CLP  | 20.3 v GRN
Araluen | Jodeen Carney | CLP  | 24.7
Independent seats
Nelson | Gerry Wood | IND  | 28.7 v CLP

## References

[edit]

1. ^ "NT election on 9 August". Ntnews.com.au. 21 July 2008. Retrieved 27 January 2012.
2. ^ "Mills concedes defeat in NT election". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 11 August 2008. Archived from the original on 11 August 2008. Retrieved 27 January 2012.
3. ^ 5 Minutes 10 Minutes. "Opposition concedes NT election". The Australian. Retrieved 27 January 2012.`{{cite web}}`: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)[dead link‍]
4. ^ "Labor narrowly wins NT election". News.smh.com.au. 11 August 2008. Retrieved 27 January 2012.
5. ^ "Details of NT 2008 Election" (PDF). ABC.
6. ^ "Henderson denies NT leadership an issue". News.theage.com.au. 12 August 2008. Retrieved 27 January 2012.
7. ^ "2008 Redistribution". ABC.
8. ^ "Details of NT 2008 Election" (PDF). ABC.

## External links

[edit]

### Electoral sites

[edit]

* Northern Territory Electoral Commission website

### Media sites

[edit]

* ABC NT Election website

### Party sites

[edit]

* Australian Labor Party (NT) website
* Country Liberal Party website
* Northern Territory Greens website

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