2008 United States Senate election in Virginia

* * *

| <- 2002 | November 4, 2008 | 2014 ->

|
|

Turnout| 67.0% (voting eligible)[1]
|  |  |

|
|

Nominee  | Mark Warner | Jim Gilmore |
Party  | Democratic | Republican
Popular vote  | 2,369,327 | 1,228,830
Percentage  | 65.03% | 33.72%

* * *

County and independent city results

Congressional district results

Precinct results

Warner:  40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
Gilmore:  40–50% 50–60%

* * *

| U.S. senator before election

John Warner
Republican

| Elected U.S. Senator

Mark Warner
Democratic

|

Elections in Virginia

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(List)

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|  Mayor

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* 2020

* v
* t
* e

The 2008 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican Senator John Warner decided to retire instead of seeking a sixth term. Former Governor Mark Warner (unrelated) won the open seat by more than 31 percentage points. Warner became the first Democrat to win this seat since 1966. This was also the first time since 1964 that the state voted simultaneously for a Democratic presidential candidate and a Democratic Senate candidate, having voted for Barack Obama in the presidential election, albeit by a far lesser margin. This was Virginia's first open-seat election since 1988. Mark Warner's inauguration marked the first time since Harry Flood Byrd Jr. left the Democratic Party to become an independent in 1970 where Democrats held both of Virginia's Senate seats.

Warner's large margin of victory was reflected throughout the state — Gilmore won only six counties and independent cities (Augusta, Colonial Heights, Hanover, Poquoson, Powhatan and Rockingham) and his margin didn't exceed more than 2,000 votes in any of them. As of 2023, this is the last time Amelia County and Bland County voted Democratic. This is the last time that the winner of the United States Senate election in Virginia won a majority of Virginia's counties and independent cities.

## Background

[edit]

John Warner, a former United States Under Secretary of the Navy, had served Virginia in the Senate since 1979, and had been cagey about whether he would be running for re-election. He would have been favored for a sixth term had he decided to run again, even with recent Democratic gains in the state. In early 2007, it was speculated that Warner, who turned 80 in February of that year, would retire. When Warner reported on April 12, 2007 that he had raised only $500 in campaign contributions during the first quarter, speculation increased that he may not seek a sixth term.[2]

On August 31, 2007, Warner formally announced that he would not be seeking re-election.[3] The race was expected to be competitive, given the Democrats' two successive gubernatorial victories (2001, 2005) and the unseating of Republican senator George Allen by Jim Webb in 2006.[4]

The Wall Street Journal reported a story of National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Senator John Ensign outlining the 10 most competitive seats of the 2008 Senate election. When asked about the two GOP seats likely to switch parties, Virginia and New Mexico, on whether the NRSC was mulling walking away to work on other seats that could be won, Ensign said, "You don't waste money on races that don't need it or you can't win." This suggested that the NRSC may have started cutting money off.[5]

## Republican nomination

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

* Jim Gilmore, former Governor of Virginia
* Bob Marshall, State Delegate from Manassas

#### Withdrew

[edit]

* Tom Davis, U.S. Representative from Vienna

#### Declined

[edit]

* John Warner, incumbent U.S. Senator since 1979

Republican convention results by congressional district

Gilmore

* 50–60%

* 60–70%

Marshall

* 50–60%

* 60–70%

* 70–80%

On September 16, 2007, Republican Rep. Tom Davis of the 11th District unofficially announced that he would seek election to the seat.[6] The Washington Times reported that John Warner delayed his retirement announcement specifically to help Davis.[7]

On October 1, 2007, the editors of the National Review encouraged Virginia voters to draft General Peter Pace, the retiring Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to run in 2008 for the Senate seat to be vacated by retiring Senator John Warner. The magazine cited Pace's conservative Catholic beliefs in making its suggestion.[8]

On October 13, the Republican Party of Virginia's State Central Committee voted 47-37 to hold a statewide convention rather than a primary. Former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore argued strongly for a convention, claiming it would save the candidates money. It reportedly costs $4 million to compete in a primary, while it costs only $1 million for a convention. Davis argued that a primary would expose the candidates to the kind of environment they would face in November. A primary was thought to favor Davis due to his popularity in voter-rich Northern Virginia. In contrast, a convention was thought to favor Gilmore because most of the delegates would come from the party's activist base, which is tilted heavily to the right. With the decision, Gilmore said he was seriously considering entering the race.[9]

Davis dropped out of the race on October 25, 2007, citing the potential difficulties of defeating Gilmore in the conservative-dominated GOP convention and in taking on Warner, who is very popular in Davis' own Northern Virginia base.[10] Gilmore confirmed his candidacy on November 19, 2007.[11]

On January 7, 2008, Delegate Bob Marshall (R-Prince William County), a sixteen-year state legislator from Northern Virginia known for his social conservative values, announced he would challenge Gilmore for the Republican nomination May 31, 2008.[12] The convention was held on May 31, 2008, where Gilmore won the nomination with 50.3% of the vote, just 66 votes more than Marshall.[13]

Republican Convention Vote[14]

Candidate  | 1st District | 2nd District | 3rd District | 4th District | 5th District | 6th District | 7th District | 8th District | 9th District | 10th District | 11th District | Total

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Jim Gilmore  | 491  | 613  | 121  | 319  | 667  | 531  | 1036  | 156  | 552  | 160  | 557  | 5223
Bob Marshall  | 643  | 345  | 75  | 383  | 420  | 507  | 582  | 145  | 335  | 585  | 1137  | 5157
Total  | 1134  | 958  | 196  | 702  | 1087  | 938  | 1618  | 301  | 887  | 745  | 1714  | 10380

## Democratic nomination

[edit]

On September 12, 2007, former Governor Mark Warner (no relation to John Warner) announced his candidacy.[4][15] Mark Warner had challenged John Warner for his Senate seat in 1996, but was narrowly defeated. Mark Warner later won election in 2001 as Governor of Virginia, and left office with a high level of popularity in 2006. He was confirmed as the party nominee at the state convention on June 10, 2008, as he went unopposed.

## General election

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

* Jim Gilmore, former Governor of Virginia (Republican)
* Glenda Parker, retired United States Air Force officer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2006 (Independent Greens)
* Bill Redpath, national chair of the Libertarian Party (Libertarian)
* Mark Warner, former Governor of Virginia (Democratic)

On March 29, 2008, the Libertarian Party of Virginia state convention nominated Bill Redpath as its Senate candidate.[16] Redpath, who was serving as national party chair at the time, cited the importance of running a Libertarian candidate for federal office this election year, considering the fact that the Independent Greens have been fielding candidates so actively in recent years. Glenda Gail Parker from Alexandria, a retired U.S. Air Force officer, ran again for the Independent Greens as she did in the 2006 Senate election.[17]

### Campaign

[edit]

Former Gov. Mark Warner (D) campaigns at the Dixie Theatre in Staunton, Virginia Republican Senator John Warner chose to retire after five terms. Former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R)

After the conclusions of the state conventions, Democrat Mark Warner had emerged as the front-runner for the Class 2 Senate seat from Virginia. Some early polling showed Mark Warner leading Jim Gilmore by as much as 2-1.

Pundits and analysists believed Virginia to be the single strongest pickup opportunity for the Democrats due to Warner's consistent lead in the polls.

Jim Gilmore responded aggressively, mostly with ads on the Internet; his campaign had very little money. Gilmore attacked Warner for raising taxes during his term as governor, when he had pledged not to do so,[18] flip-flopping[19] among many other topics.

On October 6, 2008, Mark Warner and Jim Gilmore debated various issues, including the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, the Iraq War and Judicial nominees. The Richmond Times Dispatch sponsored the debate held at the Taubman Museum of Art, Roanoke, Virginia.[20]

Mark Warner argued he'd be part of a radical centrist coalition, no matter who won the presidency. He claimed the coalition would improve cooperation in the Congress and its subsequent public perception. Warner spoke of alternative energy, and Gilmore argued for offshore drilling.[21] The issue of the 2004 tax increase under then-Governor Mark Warner was raised at the first debate of the campaign between Gilmore and Warner.[22]

The Washington Post reported on July 24, 2008, that Jim Gilmore "submitted false information on two financial disclosure forms that hid his ties to a government contractor embroiled in a legal dispute over allegations that two of its executives had conspired to defraud the federal government." The Gilmore campaign responded by saying, the controversy was due to a "clerical error."[23]

On election night, Warner was declared the winner based on exit polls alone, before the votes were counted.

### Fundraising

[edit]

Money played a large role in the campaign. By July, Mark Warner had raised $9 million, while Jim Gilmore had raised $1.2 million.[24] This does not include money from the DSCC or NRSC.

### Endorsements

[edit]

#### Mark Warner

[edit]

* Bristol Herald-Courier
* Daily Press (Newport News)[25]
* Danville Register & Bee
* Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star[26]
* Loudoun Times-Mirror
* Martinsville Bulletin[27]
* News and Advance (Lynchburg)
* The Roanoke Times[28]
* The Virginian-Pilot (Norfolk)[29]
* The Washington Post[30]

#### Jim Gilmore

[edit]

* Richmond Times-Dispatch

### Predictions

[edit]

Source  | Ranking  | As of

|
|

The Cook Political Report[31] | Likely D (flip) | October 23, 2008
CQ Politics[32] | Safe D (flip) | October 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report[33] | Likely D (flip) | November 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics[34] | Safe D (flip) | November 1, 2008

### Polling

[edit]

Source  | Date  | Jim
Gilmore (R)  | Mark
Warner (D)

|
|
|

Rasmussen Reports | September 5, 2007  | 34%  | 54%
Survey USA | September 17, 2007  | 32%  | 60%
Newport University | October 1, 2007  | 27%  | 51%
Washington Post | October 12, 2007  | 31%  | 61%
Rasmussen Reports | October 24, 2007  | 37%  | 53%
SurveyUSA | November 5, 2007  | 35%  | 57%
Rasmussen Reports | January 3, 2008  | 38%  | 53%
Rasmussen Reports | February 19, 2008  | 37%  | 57%
Rasmussen Reports | March 26, 2008  | 39%  | 55%
Rasmussen Reports | May 8, 2008  | 37%  | 55%
Rasmussen Reports | June 12, 2008  | 33%  | 60%
PPP(D) | June 14, 2008  | 28%  | 59%
Rasmussen Reports | July 16, 2008  | 36%  | 59%
Rasmussen Reports | August 12, 2008  | 35%  | 61%
Public Policy Polling | August 22, 2008  | 32%  | 55%
Survey USA | September 7, 2008  | 35%  | 56%
Survey USA | September 12, 2008  | 34%  | 57%
Public Policy Polling | September 13, 2008  | 33%  | 57%
Newport University Archived September 18, 2008, at the Wayback Machine | September 17, 2008  | 30%  | 54%
Survey USA | September 21, 2008  | 34%  | 57%
Rasmussen Reports | September 25, 2008  | 34%  | 60%
Rasmussen Reports | October 16, 2008  | 36%  | 61%
Survey USA | October 18, 2008  | 36%  | 60%
Survey USA | October 26, 2008  | 32%  | 63%
Survey USA | November 1, 2008  | 35%  | 59%
Public Policy Polling | November 2, 2008  | 36%  | 62%

### Results

[edit]

2008 United States Senate election in Virginia[35] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %  | ±%

|
|
|
|

| Democratic | Mark Warner | 2,369,327  | 65.03%  | +65.03%
| Republican | Jim Gilmore | 1,228,830  | 33.72%  | −48.85%
| Independent Greens | Glenda Parker  | 21,690  | 0.60%  | +0.60%
| Libertarian | Bill Redpath | 20,269  | 0.56%  | +0.56%
| Write-in | 3,178  | 0.09%  | -0.47%
Total votes  | 3,643,294  | 100.00%  | N/A
| Democratic gain from Republican

#### Counties and Independent Cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

* Accomack (Largest city: Chincoteague)
* Amelia (no municipalities)
* Amherst (Largest city: Amherst)
* Appomattox (Largest city: Appomattox)
* Bath (Largest city: Hot Springs)
* Bedford (largest city: Bedford)
* Bland (Largest city: Bland)
* Botetourt (Largest city: Cloverdale)
* Buckingham (Largest city: Dillwyn)
* Buchanan (largest city: Grundy)
* Buena Vista (Independent city)
* Bristol (Independent city)
* Campbell (largest city: Altavista)
* Carroll (largest city: Hillsville)
* Charlotte (largest city: Keysville)
* Chesapeake (independent city)
* Chesterfield (no municipalities)
* Clarke (largest city: Berryville)
* Craig (Largest city: New Castle)
* Cumberland (Largest city: Farmville)
* Culpeper (largest borough: Culpeper)
* Dickenson (largest borough: Clintwood)
* Dinwiddie (Largest town: McKenney)
* Essex (Largest city: Tappahannock)
* Emporia (Independent city)
* Fauquier (Largest city: Warrenton)
* Floyd (Largest city: Floyd)
* Franklin (Largest city: Rocky Mount)
* Fluvanna (Largest city: Monticello)
* Galax (Independent city)
* Giles (Largest city: Pearisburg)
* Frederick (Largest city: Winchester)
* Gloucester (Largest city: Gloucester Point)
* Goochland (no municipalities)
* Grayson (Largest city: Independence)
* Greene (Largest city: Twin Lakes)
* Halifax (Largest city: South Boston)
* Henry (Largest city: Martinsville)
* Highland (Largest city: Monterey)
* Isle of Wight (Largest city: Smithfield)
* James City (no municipalities)
* King and Queen (Largest city: King and Queen Courthouse)
* King George (Largest city: King George)
* King William (Largest city: West Point)
* Lancaster (Largest city: Kilmarnock)
* Lee (Largest city: Pennington Gap)
* Loudoun (Largest city: Leesburg)
* Louisa (Largest city: Louisa)
* Lunenburg (Largest city: Victoria)
* Lexington (Independent city)
* Lynchburg (Independent city)
* Madison (Largest city: Madison)
* Matthews (no municipalities)
* Mecklenburg (Largest city: South Hill)
* Middlesex (Largest city: Urbanna)
* Northumberland (Largest city: Heathsville)
* New Kent (no municipalities)
* Norton (Independent city)
* Radford (Independent city)
* Nottoway (Largest city: Blackstone)
* Orange (Largest city: Orange)
* Page (Largest city: Luray)
* Patrick (Largest city: Stuart)
* Pittsylvania (Largest city: Chatham)
* Prince George (Largest city: Fort Gregg-Adams)
* Pulaski (Largest city: Pulaski)
* Salem (independent city)
* Staunton (independent city)
* Rappahannock (largest city: Washington)
* Richmond (largest city: Warsaw)
* Roanoke (largest city: Vinton)
* Rockbridge (Largest city: Lexington)
* Russell (Largest city: Lebanon)
* Scott (Largest city: Gate City)
* Shenandoah (Largest city: Strasburg)
* Smyth (Largest city: Marion)
* Southampton (largest municipality: Courtland)
* Spotsylvania (largest municipality: Spotsylvania Courthoouse)
* Stafford (no municipalities)
* Tazewell (Largest city: Richlands)
* Warren (Largest city: Front Royal)
* Washington (Largest city: Abingdon)
* Wise (Largest city: Big Stone Gap)
* Westmoreland (Largest city: Colonial Beach)
* Winchester (independent city)
* Virginia Beach (Independent city)
* Waynesboro (independent city)
* Wythe (Largest city: Wytheville)
* York (Largest city: Grafton)
* Albemarle (largest municipality: Scottsville)
* Fairfax (largest municipality: Herndon)
* Nelson (largest municipality: Nellysford)
* Prince Edward (largest municipality: Farmville)
* Danville (independent city)
* Fairfax (independent city)
* Williamsburg (independent city)
* Caroline (largest borough: Bowling Green)
* Harrisonburg (independent city)
* Henrico (largest borough: Richmond)
* Hopewell (independent city)
* Manassas (independent city)
* Manassas Park (independent city)
* Montgomery (largest borough: Blacksburg)
* Prince William (largest borough: Manassas)
* Suffolk (independent city)
* Covington (independent city)
* Martinsville (independent city)
* Brunswick (largest borough: Lawrenceville)
* Charlottesville (independent city)
* Northampton (largest borough: Exmore)
* Surry (no municipalities)
* Emporia (independent city)
* Roanoke (independent city)
* Richmond (independent city)
* Falls Church (independent city)
* Norfolk (independent city)
* Hampton (independent city)
* Portsmouth (independent city)
* Newsport News (independent city)
* Alexandria (independent city)
* Buena Vista (independent city)
* Alleghany (largest borough: Clinfton Forge)
* Arlington (no municipalities)
* Greensville (Largest city: Jarratt)
* Sussex (Largest city: Waverly)
* Petersburg (independent city)
* Charles City (no municipalities)
* Franklin (Largest city: Rocky Mount)

## See also

[edit]

* 2008 United States Senate elections

## References

[edit]

1. ^ Dr. Michael McDonald (March 31, 2012). "2008 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on January 12, 2013. Retrieved March 4, 2013.
2. ^ Tim Craig (April 13, 2007). "Warner's Fundraising Prompts Speculation on Reelection Plans". The Washington Post. p. B01.
3. ^ "Sen. Warner won't seek sixth term". Associated Press via NBC News. August 31, 2007.
4. ^ a b Tim Craig and Amy Gardner (September 13, 2007). "Former Va. Gov. Warner Set to Seek Senate Seat". The Washington Post. p. A01.
5. ^ "Sen. Ensign Says GOP Majority Would Be 'Fairly Miraculous'". The Wall Street Journal. June 12, 2008.
6. ^ Bill Turque (September 15, 2007). "Would-Be Candidate Is Taking His Time". The Washington Post. p. B01.
7. ^ McLaughlin, Seth (June 25, 2007). "Mum Warner likely to move on". The Washington Times. Retrieved June 25, 2007.
8. ^ "Draft General Pace". National Review. October 1, 2007. Archived from the original on October 13, 2007. Retrieved October 2, 2007.
9. ^ Craig, Tim; Agiesta, Jennifer (October 13, 2007). "Republicans Opt for Convention to Choose Nominee - washingtonpost.com". The Washington Post. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
10. ^ "Davis Out Of Senate Race, Offers Lukewarm Endorsement To Gilmore". CBS News. October 25, 2007.
11. ^ Craig, Tim (November 19, 2007). "Gilmore Enters Senate Race". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 19, 2007.
12. ^ Craig, Tim. Marshall to Challenge Gilmore For Republican Nomination. The Washington Post. January 8, 2008.
13. ^ Lewis, Bob (May 31, 2008). "Gilmore wins Va. GOP Senate nomination". WTOP-FM. Retrieved May 31, 2008.
14. ^ Wordpress.com (June 1, 2008). "The 2008 Virginia Republican Party Convention".
15. ^ MarkWarner08 (September 12, 2007). "Mark Warner: Join our effort". Archived from the original on December 13, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2018 - via YouTube.`{{cite web}}`: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
16. ^ "LPVA - Libertarian Party of Virginia". www.lpva.com. Archived from the original on January 28, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
17. ^ "IGVA News". votejoinrun.us. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
18. ^ Jim Gilmore for Senate (July 17, 2008). "Youtube- Mark Warner's "No Tax Pledge" of 2001".
19. ^ Jim Gilmore for President (July 17, 2008). "Sabato: Which is the real Mark Warner?".
20. ^ Richmond Times Dispatch (October 6, 2008). "Warner, Gilmore spill over bailout".[permanent dead link]
21. ^ "The Daily News Record: Top News". Archived from the original on March 8, 2009. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
22. ^ Holmes, Matt (July 19, 2008). "Gilmore, Warner Square Off In First Senate Debate". WCAV. Archived from the original on July 22, 2012. Retrieved July 25, 2008.
23. ^ Craig, Tim (July 24, 2008). "Gilmore Filed False Information On Campaign Disclosure Forms". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 25, 2008.
24. ^ Emerling, Gary (July 18, 2008). "Warner, Gilmore ready to debate". The Washington Times. Retrieved July 26, 2008.
25. ^ "Topic Galleries - dailypress.com". Retrieved May 1, 2018.[permanent dead link]
26. ^ "Warner for Senate". Archived from the original on May 22, 2011. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
27. ^ "Vote Warner for Senate - Martinsville Bulletin". Archived from the original on February 16, 2012. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
28. ^ "Mark Warner for U.S. Senate - Roanoke.com". Archived from the original on March 20, 2012. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
29. ^ Virginian-Pilot, The. "Mark Warner for U.S. Senate". Archived from the original on February 29, 2012. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
30. ^ "Mark Warner for Senate". The Washington Post. October 12, 2008. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
31. ^ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
32. ^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
33. ^ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
34. ^ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
35. ^ "2008 Election Statistics". clerk.house.gov. Retrieved May 1, 2018.

## External links

[edit]

General

* Virginia State Board of Elections
* U.S. Congress candidates for Virginia at Project Vote Smart
* Virginia, U.S. Senate from CQ Politics
* Virginia U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
* Virginia Senate race from 2008 Race Tracker
* Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets
* Gilmore (R) vs M. Warner (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com

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