2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky

* * *

| <- 2004 | November 2, 2010 | 2016 ->

|
|

|  |  |

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Nominee  | Rand Paul | Jack Conway |
Party  | Republican | Democratic
Popular vote  | 755,706 | 600,052
Percentage  | 55.73% | 44.25%

* * *

County results
Paul: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
Conway: 50–60% 60–70%
Tie: 50%

* * *

| U.S. senator before election

Jim Bunning
Republican

| Elected U.S. Senator

Rand Paul
Republican

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The 2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 2, 2010, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primaries for each respective party were held on May 18, 2010.[1] Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning decided to retire instead of seeking a third term. Republican nominee Rand Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Congressman Ron Paul, won the open seat against Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway.[2]

## Background[edit]

In early 2009, incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning, who won reelection by a surprisingly narrow margin in 2004, said he would need to raise $10 million for his re-election campaign.[3] However, NRSC chairman John Cornyn pressured Bunning to retire due to concerns that he could lose a reelection bid.[4] In July 2009, Bunning announced he would not run for re-election.[5]

In February 2009, Senator Bunning stated that another justice could soon be appointed to the United States Supreme Court because Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who had been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, would be dead within nine months,[6] creating a significant amount of controversy, which resulted in an apology from Bunning.[7] Ginsburg would not die until 2020—outliving Bunning, who would die in 2017.

In late May 2009, Bunning called fellow Kentucky Senator and Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell a "control freak" and suggested that he did not need McConnell's endorsement.[8] He also challenged Lexington Herald-Leader editor John Stamper to an arm wrestling match after Stamper questioned whether Bunning was "fit to serve."[8]

Additionally, Bunning created further controversy in February 2010 when he objected to a proposal of unanimous consent for an extension of unemployment insurance, COBRA, and other federal programs, citing that this extension was not pay-as-you-go. He proposed an amendment which sought to find the funds to pay for the bill from the Stimulus Bill of 2009, and declared that he supported the unemployed, but that a bill such as this only added to the growing deficit and that it should be paid for immediately.[9] Senator Bob Corker joined Bunning, while other senators worked to cease his objections. When Senator Jeff Merkley urged him to drop his objections to vote on a 30-day extension of benefits, Bunning responded "tough shit."[10][11] Bunning finally agreed to end his objection to the bill in exchange for a vote on his amendment to pay for the package. It failed 53–43 on a procedural vote.[12] The extension of unemployment benefits then passed by a vote of 78–19.[13]

## Republican primary[edit]

### Candidates[edit]

* Rand Paul, ophthalmologist
* Trey Grayson, Secretary of State of Kentucky
* Gurley L. Martin, World War II veteran
* Jon J. Scribner, businessman
* John Stephenson, former Kentucky Superintendent of Public Education

### Campaign[edit]

On August 20, 2009, a grassroots-planned moneybomb raised $433,509 for Rand Paul's campaign in a 24-hour period.[14] According to Paul,[15] this set a new record in Kentucky's political fundraising history (for a 24-hour period). Republican Liberty Caucus endorsed Paul in November 2009.[16] On December 22, 2009, Rand Paul picked up the endorsement of Concerned Women for America.[17] Paul embraced the Tea Party movement, and promoted "small government principles" one day after he officially entered the race for Kentucky's open seat.[18] Paul ran a strong anti-Washington message. One commercial tied Grayson as part of the problem, noting that Grayson raised money with AIG executives in Washington. In another advertisement, Paul had also attacked Grayson as a career politician and a liar.[19]

Grayson created a new website that attacked Paul for his "strange ideas," such as his opposition of the PATRIOT Act, and what Grayson alleged to be his support of closing down Guantanamo Bay and saying that Iran was not a threat. He also attacked Paul for being a Duke University fan.[citation needed] He sent out another TV ad and web video that stirred controversy by making the case that Paul believes that foreign policy decisions made prior to September 11, 2001, are partially to blame for the attacks.[20] Paul immediately responded by launching a statewide television ad in which he expresses his "outrage at terrorists who killed 3,000 innocents" before accusing Grayson of a "lie" and a "shameful" tactic.[21] Grayson accused the Fox News Channel of favoring Paul over him.[22]

On May 18, 2010, Paul won the Republican nomination.[2] After conceding the election to Paul, Grayson said, "It's time to put all differences aside, unite behind Dr. Paul, he needs our help and I for one stand ready to serve".[23]

### Endorsements[edit]

List of individuals and organizations endorsing Rand Paul

* U.S. Senator Jim Bunning of Kentucky[24]
* U.S. Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina[25]
* Former Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska[26]
* Former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas[27]
* Congressman Ron Paul (father of Rand)
* Former Republican presidential candidate and editor-in-chief of Forbes Steve Forbes[28]
* State Senator Dan Seum[29]
* Editor of conservative weblog RedState Erick Erickson[30]
* James Dobson, founder of Focus on the Family[31]
* Cathy Bailey, Former U.S. Ambassador to Latvia[32]
* Brooks Wicker, 3rd congressional district candidate[33]
* James Edwards, host of The Political Cesspool[34]
* Concerned Women for America[17]
* Downsize DC Foundation[35]
* Americans For Prosperity
* FreedomWorks[36]
* Gun Owners of America[37]
* Republican Liberty Caucus[38]
* Northern Kentucky Right to Life[39]
* Tea Party Express[40]
* REAGAN PAC[41]
* Bluegrass Bulletin's Marcus Carey[42]
* Kentucky Credit Union PAC[43]
* Lexington Herald-Leader[44]
* Club for Growth[45]

List of individuals and organizations endorsing Trey Grayson

* U.S. Senate Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky[46]
* Former Vice President Dick Cheney[47]
* Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania[47]
* Former Congressman Ron Lewis of Kentucky[47]
* Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani[48]
* Congressman Hal Rogers of Kentucky[47]
* State Senator Julie Denton[47]
* State Senator Tom Jensen[47]
* State Senator Vernie McGaha[47]
* State Senator John Schickel[47]
* State Senator Brandon Smith[47]
* State Senator Elizabeth Tori[47]
* State Senator Jack Westwood[47]
* State Senator Ken Winters[47]
* State Representative Scott Brinkman[47]
* State Representative John "Bam" Carney[47]
* State Representative Tim Couch[47]
* State Representative Ronald Crimm[47]
* State Representative Bob Deweese[47]
* State Representative Myron Dossett[47]
* State Representative Bill Farmer[47]
* State Representative Mike Harmon[47]
* State Representative Brent Housman[47]
* State Representative Adam Koenig[47]
* State Representative Brad Montell[47]
* State Representative Tim Moore[47]
* State Representative David Osborne[47]
* State Representative Marie Rader[47]
* State Representative Steven Rudy[47]
* State Representative Sal Santoro[47]
* State Representative Alecia Webb-Edgington[47]
* State Representative Addia Wuchner[47]
* State Representative Jill York[47]
* Kentucky Right to Life[47]
* The Kentucky Enquirer[49]

### Polling[edit]

List of Republican primary polling numbers

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin
of error | Trey
Grayson  | Rand
Paul  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Survey USA (report)  | August 15–17, 2009  | 516  | ± 4.4%  | 37% | 26%  | 13%  | 17%
Research 2000 (report) (archive)  | August 31 – September 2, 2009  | 600  | ± 4.0%  | 40% | 25%  | 18%  | 17%
Survey USA (report)  | October 30 – November 2, 2009  | 448  | ± 4.7%  | 32%  | 35%  | 10%  | 18%
Public Policy Polling (report[dead link])  | December 18–21, 2009  | 478  | ± 4.5%  | 25%  | 44%  | —  | 32%
Magellan Strategies (report[dead link])  | February 18, 2010  | 560  | ± 4.1%  | 23%  | 44% | —  | 33%
Survey USA (report)  | March 1–3, 2010  | 454  | ± 4.7%  | 27%  | 42%  | 11%  | 19%
Research 2000 (report) (archive)  | March 15–17, 2010  | 600  | ± 5.0%  | 28%  | 40%  | 14%  | 18%
Survey USA (report)  | April 9–11, 2010  | 446  | ± 4.7%  | 30%  | 45% | 5%  | 19%
Public Policy Polling (report)  | May 1–2, 2010  | 363  | ± 5.1%  | 28%  | 46% | 4%  | 21%
Research 2000 (report Archived 2010-05-08 at the Wayback Machine)  | May 2–4, 2010  | 500  | ± 4.5%  | 32%  | 44% | 7%  | 17%
Magellan Strategies (report) (archive)  | May 4, 2010  | 611  | ± 3.9%  | 28%  | 43% | 8%  | 21%
Survey USA (report(registration required))  | May 9–11, 2010  | 440  | ± 4.8%  | 33%  | 49% | 7%  | 11%
Research 2000 (report) (archive)  | May 10–12, 2010  | 600  | ± 4.0%  | 35%  | 45% | 7%  | 13%
Public Policy Polling (report)  | May 15–16, 2010  | 1,065  | ± 3.0%  | 34%  | 52% | 7%  | 7%
Magellan Strategies (report) (archive)  | May 16, 2010  | 809  | ± 3.4%  | 30%  | 55% | 8%  | 7%

### Results[edit]

Counties carried by Paul are in Yellow; counties carried by Grayson are in green. Republican primary results[50] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Republican | Rand Paul  | 206,986  | 58.8%
| Republican | Trey Grayson  | 124,864  | 35.4%
| Republican | Bill Johnson*  | 7,861  | 2.2%
| Republican | John Stephenson  | 6,885  | 2.0%
| Republican | Gurley L. Martin  | 2,850  | 0.8%
| Republican | Jon J. Scribner  | 2,829  | 0.8%
Total votes  | 352,275  | 100.0%

*Though Bill Johnson dropped out of the race prior to the primary, he still appeared on the ballot.

## Democratic primary[edit]

### Candidates[edit]

* Jack Conway, Attorney General of Kentucky
* Daniel Mongiardo, Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky and nominee in 2004
* James Buckmaster, physician[51]
* Darlene Fitzgerald Price, former U.S. Customs agent[52]
* Maurice Sweeney, businessman[53]

### Campaign[edit]

Mongiardo announced that he had received the endorsement of Governor Steve Beshear[54] and raised $420,000.[55]

Due to Conway's large margin of victory in his statewide campaign for attorney general, his fundraising ability, and the age difference between Conway and Bunning, Conway was described as a viable candidate.[56]

Both candidates were against the Senate version of the Affordable Care Act. When Mongiardo said that "it was time to start over," he was criticized by Conway and labeled "Dr. No."[57] Both candidates supported the final version.[58][59] Attorney General Conway refused to join a lawsuit claiming that health care reform is unconstitutional.[60]

On May 18, 2010, Conway won the Democratic nomination.[61]

### Endorsements[edit]

List of individuals and organizations endorsing Jack Conway

* U.S. Congressmen Ben Chandler
* U.S. Congressman John Yarmuth
* Speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives Greg Stumbo
* Kentucky Finance/Administration Cabinet Secretary Jonathan Miller
* Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson[62]
* Former U.S. Senator and former Governor of Kentucky Wendell Ford[63]
* Former Governor of Kentucky John Brown
* Kentucky State Auditor Crit Luallen
* The Courier-Journal[64]
* The Kentucky Enquirer[65]
* Lexington Herald-Leader[66]

List of individuals and organizations endorsing Daniel Mongiardo

* Governor Steve Beshear
* State Senator and former Governor Julian Carroll
* State Senator Perry Clark
* State Senator Denise Harper-Angel
* State Senator Walter Blevins
* State Senator Tim Shaughnessy
* State Senator Gerald Neal
* Former State Senator David Karem[67]

### Polling[edit]

List of Democratic primary polling numbers

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin
of error | Jack
Conway  | Daniel
Mongiardo  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Garin-Hart-Yang (report[dead link])  | May 12–13, 2009  | 336  | ± 5.3%  | 28%  | 43% | —  | 29%
Survey USA (report)  | August 15–17, 2009  | 647  | ± 3.9%  | 31%  | 39% | 9%  | 14%
Research 2000 (report) (archive)  | August 31 – September 2, 2009  | 600  | ± 4.0%  | 30%  | 37% | 15%  | 18%
Survey USA (report)  | October 30 – November 2, 2009  | 602  | ± 4.1%  | 28%  | 39% | 10%  | 16%
Public Policy Polling (report[dead link])  | December 22, 2009  | 557  | ± 4.2%  | 37% | 33%  | —  | 30%
Survey USA (report)  | March 1–3, 2010  | 590  | ± 4.1%  | 27%  | 45% | 9%  | 19%
Research 2000 (report) (archive)  | March 15–17, 2010  | 600  | ± 5.0%  | 31%  | 47%  | 8%  | 14%
Survey USA (report)  | April 9–11, 2010  | 659  | ± 4.7%  | 32%  | 35% | 11%  | 21%
Public Policy Polling (report)  | May 1–2, 2010  | 459  | ± 4.6%  | 27%  | 36% | 10%  | 27%
Research 2000 (report Archived 2010-05-08 at the Wayback Machine)  | May 2–4, 2010  | 500  | ± 4.5%  | 32%  | 39% | 12%  | 17%
Survey USA (report(registration required))  | May 9–11, 2010  | 662  | ± 3.9%  | 37%  | 38% | 13%  | 12%
Research 2000 (report)  | May 10–12, 2010  | 600  | ± 4.0%  | 36%  | 39% | 10%  | 15%

### Results[edit]

The county carried by James Buckmaster is in gray. The county carried by Darlene Price is in brown. The counties carried by Dan Mongiardo are in blue. The counties carried by Jack Conway are in yellow.

The primary race was extremely close with Conway narrowly prevailing by just over 4,000 votes. The race remained in doubt for much of the night. Finally with 99% of the vote counted the Associated Press declared Conway the winner. Mongiardo called Conway to concede at 10:08 P.M. EST. Mongiardo congratulated Conway and pledged him his full support for the general election. In terms of the breakdown of the results, Conway ran up margins in Jefferson County home of Louisville, and Fayette County home of Lexington. In terms of more rural counties Mongiardo and Conway split the vote. Conway performed well in central Kentucky, while Mongiardo performed well in coal country in east Kentucky and farm country in western Kentucky. In the end Conway's performance in the states most populated county, Jefferson County proved to be just enough to carry him to victory. The primary race was also notable because both Conway and Mongiardo received more votes than Republican Rand Paul.[citation needed]

Democratic primary results[50] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Democratic | Jack Conway  | 229,433  | 44.0%
| Democratic | Daniel Mongiardo  | 225,260  | 43.2%
| Democratic | Darlene Fitzgerald Price  | 28,531  | 5.5%
| Democratic | James Buckmaster  | 20,561  | 3.9%
| Democratic | Maurice Sweeney  | 17,874  | 3.4%
Total votes  | 521,659  | 100.0%

## General election[edit]

### Candidates[edit]

* Rand Paul (R), ophthalmologist and political activist
* Jack Conway (D), Attorney General
* Billy Ray Wilson (independent write-in)

Kentucky's ballot access requirements allow Republicans and Democrats to run for office with two signatures, but require minor parties and independents to collect at least 5,000 signatures.[68] The filing deadline for minor party and independent candidates was on August 10, and no candidate filed.[68]

Some speculate that the reason why no minor party or independent candidate filed is because Paul's candidacy helped discourage it. The Libertarian Party of Kentucky held its nominating convention for 2010 elections and failed to nominate a candidate for the U.S. Senate, as no one stepped forward to seek nomination to that office. Despite comments from some observers that Paul espouses libertarian beliefs, the Kentucky Libertarian Party issued an official press release stating "Rand Paul is not a libertarian" and detailing the differences between Paul's beliefs and libertarian principles.[69] Similarly, the Constitution Party of Kentucky avoided the Senate race ostensibly because of Rand Paul's presence in that race and perhaps because of his more minarchist stance than Trey Grayson, especially if the latter had been the nominee.

Billy Ray Wilson, an independent of London, filed as a write-in candidate.[70][71][72]

### Campaign[edit]

Conway began the race trailing Paul, but as he attacked his opponent's positions on social-welfare and criminal-justice policies, the polls began to tighten. Conway agreed to run an advertisement that linked Paul's policy stances to a college prank in which Paul reportedly demanded that a female classmate worship a bong named "Aqua Buddha." Independent political analysts in Kentucky quickly warned that Conway would regret his decision. The ad's focus on religion led critics, including not just Republicans but also some liberals such as Hardball's Chris Matthews, to charge that Conway was improperly questioning Paul's faith, to which Conway countered that the ad was intended to question Paul's "judgment." Nonetheless, Conway swiftly dropped again in the polls, a decline from which he never recovered. Conway ceased his defense of the commercial after the election, admitting that running it had been a mistake; he claimed that he had done so only reluctantly at the urging of national advisers despite finding it "harsh as mule's breath."[73]

Conway saw one last opportunity before his final debate with Paul. One of Rand Paul's supporters stomped on a MoveOn activist after she approached Paul's vehicle, and a video of the event was later used in a Conway TV commercial.[74][75] Paul and Conway condemned the attack and the supporter was banned from campaign events.[74][76]

The campaign attracted $8.5 million in contributions from outside groups, of which $6 million was spent to help Rand Paul and $2.5 million to help Conway. This money influx was in addition to the money spent by the candidates themselves: $6 million by Paul and $4.7 million by Conway.[77][78]

Paul was endorsed by The Kentucky Enquirer,[79] The Richmond Register,[80] and the Bowling Green Daily News;[81] as well as by the National Federation of Independent Business,[82] Council for Citizens Against Government Waste,[83] National Right to Life,[84] US Chamber of Commerce,[85] National Vietnam and Gulf War Veterans Coalition,[86] Mike Huckabee,[87] and Tony Perkins/FRC Action PAC.[88][89]

Conway was endorsed by the Courier-Journal[90] and the Lexington Herald Leader.[91]

### Debates[edit]

This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (March 2013)

|

Rand Paul and Jack Conway debate, October 2010

There were 5 televised debates between the two candidates. The first debate on October 3, 2010, which was moderated by Chris Wallace, seemed to focus on President Obama's decisions during his 2 years as president. Paul stated, "I think his agenda is wrong for America. I will stand up against President Obama's agenda." Conway responded, "I am a proud Democrat. I'm certainly not going to be on the left of Barack Obama." At the time of the debate, the election's polls indicated the race was a dead heat.[92]

### Predictions[edit]

Source  | Ranking  | As of

|
|

Cook Political Report[93] | Lean R  | November 1, 2010
Rothenberg[94] | Lean R  | October 29, 2010
RealClearPolitics[95] | Lean R  | October 19, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[96] | Lean R  | October 14, 2010
CQ Politics[97] | Lean R  | October 20, 2010
Rasmussen Reports[98] | Safe R  | October 29, 2010
The New York Times[99] | Lean R  | October 20, 2010

### Fundraising[edit]

Candidate (party)  | Receipts  | Disbursements  | Cash on hand  | Debt

|
|
|
|

Rand Paul (R)  | $6,727,033  | $6,068,547  | $658,484  | $0
Jack Conway (D)  | $5,027,318  | $4,370,349  | $684,177  | $460,794
Source: Federal Election Commission[100]

### Polling[edit]

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin
of error | Rand
Paul (R)  | Jack
Conway (D)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

SurveyUSA (report)  | August 15–17, 2009  | 1,944  | ± 2.3%  | 38%  | 43% | —  | 19%
Research 2000 (report) (archive)  | August 31 – September 2, 2009  | 600  | ± 4.0%  | 37%  | 41% | —  | 22%
Rasmussen Reports (report)  | September 30, 2009  | 500  | ± 4.5%  | 38%  | 42% | 4%  | 15%
SurveyUSA (report)  | October 30 – November 2, 2009  | 1,770  | ± 2.4%  | 39%  | 44% | —  | 17%
Public Policy Polling (report[dead link])  | December 18–21, 2009  | 1,199  | ± 2.8%  | 42% | 36%  | —  | 22%
Rasmussen Reports (report)  | January 6, 2010  | 500  | ± 4.5%  | 46% | 38%  | 4%  | 12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)  | February 2, 2010  | 500  | ± 4.5%  | 47% | 39%  | 3%  | 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)  | March 2, 2010  | 500  | ± 4.5%  | 49% | 34%  | 4%  | 13%
Research 2000 (report) (archive)  | March 15–17, 2010  | 600  | ± 5.0%  | 45%  | 39%  | —  | 16%
Rasmussen Reports (report)  | March 31, 2010  | 500  | ± 4.5%  | 50%  | 36%  | 3%  | 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)  | April 28, 2010  | 500  | ± 4.5%  | 47%  | 38%  | 4%  | 10%
Public Policy Polling (report)  | May 1–2, 2010  | 946  | ± 3.2%  | 41%  | 40%  | —  | 19%
Research 2000 (report) (archive)  | May 10–12, 2010  | 600  | ± 4.0%  | 42% | 39%  | —  | 19%
Rasmussen Reports (report[dead link])  | May 19, 2010  | 500  | ± 4.5%  | 59%  | 34%  | 4%  | 3%
Research 2000 (report)  | May 24–26, 2010  | 600  | ± 4.0%  | 44%  | 41%  | —  | 9%
SurveyUSA (report)  | May 25–27, 2010  | 569  | ± 4.2%  | 51%  | 45%  | —  | 4%
Rasmussen Reports (report)  | June 1, 2010  | 500  | ± 4.5%  | 49%  | 41%  | 4%  | 6%
Rasmussen Reports (report)  | June 28, 2010  | 500  | ± 4.5%  | 49%  | 42%  | 3%  | 6%
Public Policy Polling (report)  | June 28–30, 2010  | 625  | ± 3.9%  | 43%  | 43% | —  | 14%
Rasmussen Reports (report)  | July 20, 2010  | 750  | ± 4.0%  | 49%  | 41%  | 4%  | 6%
SurveyUSA (report)  | July 27–29, 2010  | 568  | ± 4.2%  | 51%  | 43%  | —  | 5%
Reuters/Ipsos (report)  | August 13–15, 2010  | 435  | ± 4.7%  | 45%  | 40%  | —  | 15%
Rasmussen Reports (report)  | August 17, 2010  | 500  | ± 4.5%  | 49%  | 40%  | 4%  | 7%
SurveyUSA (report)  | August 30 – September 1, 2010  | 561  | ± 4.2%  | 55%  | 40%  | —  | 5%
Opinion Research (report)  | September 2–7, 2010  | 869  | ± 3.5%  | 46% | 46% | 5%  | 4%
Rasmussen Reports (report)  | September 7, 2010  | 500  | ± 4.5%  | 54% | 39%  | 2%  | 4%
Public Policy Polling (report)  | September 11–12, 2010  | 959  | ± 3.2%  | 49% | 42%  | —  | 9%
SurveyUSA (report)  | September 21–23, 2010  | 611  | ± 4.0%  | 49% | 47%  | —  | 4%
Rasmussen Reports (report)  | September 29, 2010  | 500  | ± 4.0%  | 49% | 38%  | 5%  | 8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)  | October 18, 2010  | 500  | ± 4.5%  | 47% | 42%  | 4%  | 7%
Mason-Dixon (report)  | October 18–19, 2010  | 625  | ± 4.0%  | 48% | 43%  | —  | 9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)  | October 23, 2010  | 1,000  | ± 3.0%  | 50% | 43%  | 2%  | 5%
Public Policy Polling (report)  | October 21–24, 2010  | 900  | ± 3.3%  | 53% | 40%  | —  | 7%
Opinion Research (report)  | October 20–26, 2010  | 785  | ± 3.5%  | 50% | 43%  | —  | —
SurveyUSA (report)  | October 24–27, 2010  | 900  | ± 4.0%  | 52% | 43%  | —  | 4%
Rasmussen Reports (report)  | October 27, 2010  | 750  | ± 4.0%  | 53% | 41%  | 2%  | 4%
Public Policy Polling (report)  | October 28–30, 2010  | 1,021  | ± 3.1%  | 55% | 40%  | —  | 5%

### Results[edit]

United States Senate election in Kentucky, 2010[101] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %  | ±%

|
|
|
|

| Republican | Rand Paul | 755,706  | 55.73%  | +5.07%
| Democratic | Jack Conway | 600,052  | 44.25%  | -5.09%
| Independent | Billy Ray Wilson (write-in)  | 338  | 0.02%  | N/A
Total votes  | 1,356,096  | 100.0%  |
| Republican hold

#### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican[edit]

* Bell (Largest city: Middlesboro)
* Bourbon (Largest city: Paris)
* Caldwell (Largest city: Princeton)
* Calloway (Largest city: Murray)
* Carlisle (Largest city: Bardwell)
* Clark (Largest city: Winchester)
* Gallatin (Largest city: Warsaw)
* Graves (Largest city: Mayfield)
* Greenup (Largest city: Flatwoods)
* Harrison (Largest city: Cynthiana)
* Henry (Largest city: Eminence)
* Hickman (Largest city: Clinton)
* Livingston (Largest city: Salem)
* Lyon (Largest city: Eddyville)
* Marshall (Largest city: Benton)
* Morgan (Largest city: West Liberty)
* Nelson (Largest city: Bardstown)
* Bath (Largest city: Owingsville)
* Union (Largest city: Morganfield)
* Webster (Largest city: Providence)
* Robertson (largest municipality: Mount Olivet) (became tied)
* Ballard (Largest city: LaCenter)
* Fulton (Largest city: Fulton)
* Madison (Largest city: Richmond)
* Woodford (Largest city: Versailles)

## References[edit]

1. ^ Rudin, Ken (January 25, 2010). "Your 2010 Election Calendar". National Public Radio. Retrieved March 20, 2010.
2. ^ a b Brammer, Jack (May 18, 2010). "Paul wins Kentucky GOP Senate nomination, to face Conway". McClatchy Newspapers. Archived from the original on May 22, 2010. Retrieved May 20, 2010.
3. ^ "U.S. Senator Jim Bunning to run in 2010, needs $10 million" Archived 2012-07-22 at the Wayback Machine, Fox/WDRB. Retrieved February 24, 2009.
4. ^ Kraushaar, Josh; Raju, Manu (January 22, 2009). "GOP pressures Bunning to quit". The Politico. Retrieved February 5, 2009.
5. ^ [1](registration required)[dead link]
6. ^ Baram, Marcus (February 22, 2009). "GOP Senator Jim Bunning: Justice Ginsburg Will Be Dead In Nine Months". Huffington Post.
7. ^ James R. Carroll (February 23, 2009). "Bunning apologizes for Ginsburg comments". The Courier-Journal.(registration required)
8. ^ a b "Bunning calls McConnell a control freak". Politico. Retrieved July 7, 2012.
9. ^ Bunning, Jim (March 2, 2010). "Bunning Floor Statement On Pay-For Agreement". United States Senate. Archived from the original on March 7, 2010. Retrieved March 9, 2010.
10. ^ Politico, Jim Bunning repeatedly block unemployment extension, February 25, 2010, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0210/33566.html
11. ^ "Bunning holds floor: 'Tough s--t'". Politico. February 25, 2010. Retrieved September 27, 2016.
12. ^ "U.S. Senate: Legislation & Records Home > Votes > Roll Call Vote". Senate.gov. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
13. ^ Howlett, Rick (March 2, 2010). "Bunning Drops Objection To Senate Bill". WFPL News. Archived from the original on July 19, 2011. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
14. ^ "RandPaulGraphs.com – Donation meter for August 20, 2009", www.randpaulgraphs.com August 21, 2009
15. ^ "Rand Bomb Breaks Record". Randpaul2010.com. August 22, 2009. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
16. ^ Republican Liberty Caucus. Republican Liberty Caucus Endorses Rand Paul, Peter Schiff... November 10, 2009 Archived December 16, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
17. ^ a b "Women 4 Rand" Archived December 27, 2009, at the Wayback Machine, December 22, 2009
18. ^ Kucinich, Jackie (December 31, 2009). "Rand Paul Has Praise for Tea Party Movement". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on January 6, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
19. ^ Cillizza, Chris. "Rand Paul and the Washington "machine"". Voices.washingtonpost.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
20. ^ "Friends of Trey Grayson :: Media Gallery :: Videos". Archived from the original on May 1, 2010.
21. ^ Cillizza, Chris. "Trey Grayson, Rand Paul and the politics of September 11, 2001". Voices.washingtonpost.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
22. ^ Freddoso, David (May 17, 2010). "Somebody call the waaaahmbulance for Trey Grayson". The Washington Examiner. Retrieved May 17, 2010.[dead link]
23. ^ Cate Slattery. (May 18, 2010) "Grayson Concedes Early" Archived May 22, 2010, at the Wayback Machine WTVQ News. Retrieved May 19, 2010.
24. ^ "Bunning endorses Paul in U.S. Senate race Archived 2011-04-17 at the Wayback Machine", April 14, 2010.
25. ^ "DeMint endorses Paul in US Senate race in Ky". Associated Press. May 5, 2010. Archived from the original on May 8, 2010. Retrieved July 7, 2012.
26. ^ "Sarah Palin endorses Rand Paul Archived April 9, 2010, at the Wayback Machine", February 1, 2010.
27. ^ "Mike Huckabee radio ad for Rand Paul". YouTube.
28. ^ "Steve Forbes endorses Rand Paul Archived January 3, 2011, at the Wayback Machine", January 7, 2010.
29. ^ "Dan Seum endorses Rand" Archived February 7, 2010, at the Wayback Machine, February 1, 2010
30. ^ "Erick Erickson on Twitter", December 14, 2009.
31. ^ "Dr. James Dobson Endorses Rand Paul for Senate". Business Wire. May 3, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
32. ^ "Cathy Bailey backing Rand Paul in primary Archived May 13, 2010, at the Wayback Machine", May 12, 2010.
33. ^ "Wicker endorses Paul". WHAS11. Archived from the original on September 27, 2011. Retrieved April 21, 2010.
34. ^ Edwards, James (May 21, 2010). "James Edwards endorses Rand Paul". The Political Cesspool. Archived from the original on January 26, 2016. Retrieved May 23, 2010.
35. ^ "Rand Paul & DownsizeDC.org", December 7, 2009.
36. ^ "A Tea-Party Target List? FreedomWorks Releases Its Races For 2010", January 25, 2010.
37. ^ "Gun Owners of America endorse Archived January 9, 2010, at the Wayback Machine", January 6, 2010
38. ^ "RLC Endorsements for 2010 Archived September 5, 2012, at the Wayback Machine", April 18, 2010.
39. ^ "Major pro-life endorsement for Rand Paul Archived April 20, 2010, at the Wayback Machine", April 18, 2010.
40. ^ "FoxNews.com "Tea Party Express Endorsements", April 15, 2010
41. ^ "REAGAN PAC endorses Dr. Rand Paul for United States Senate". REAGAN PAC. February 12, 2010. Archived from the original on October 2, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
42. ^ "Why The Choice Must Be Rand Paul", May 9, 2010.
43. ^ "700,000 more Rand fans". Rand Paul for U.S. Senate. Retrieved April 21, 2010.
44. ^ "Rand Paul best choice to put Republican Party on new path – Editorial". Kentucky.com. May 9, 2010. Archived from the original on May 12, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
45. ^ "Rand Paul". Clubforgrowth.org. July 30, 2010. Archived from the original on November 20, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
46. ^ "McConnell Endorses Trey Grayson over Rand Paul", May 4, 2010.
47. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af "Friends of Trey Grayson :: Endorsements". Archived from the original on April 25, 2010.
48. ^ ALEXANDER BURNS (April 13, 2010). "Rudy goes with Grayson – David Catanese". Politico.Com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
49. ^ "Enquirer endorses Trey Grayson". The Kentucky Enquirer. May 15, 2010. Retrieved May 21, 2010.
50. ^ a b "KY - Election Results". Retrieved July 7, 2012.
51. ^ "Henderson doctor joins Senate race". Courier-journal.com. Retrieved July 7, 2012.(registration required)
52. ^ Pollard, Trey (July 3, 2008). "A new face in the U.S. Senate race…of 2010". PolitickerKY.com. Archived from the original on December 2, 2008.
53. ^ "Maurice Sweeney to challenge Bunning". Fox41.com. May 22, 2010. Archived from the original on March 7, 2012. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
54. ^ Gerth, Joseph (March 28, 2009). "Beshear endorses Mongiardo for 2010 Senate race". Courier Journal.(registration required)
55. ^ "Mongiardo: Donors give $420,000 for Senate race". WZTV FOX 17. April 6, 2009. Archived from the original on July 7, 2012.
56. ^ Kraushaar, Josh; Raju, Manu (January 22, 2009). "GOP pressures Bunning to quit". The Politico. Retrieved January 24, 2009.
57. ^ "Conway Launching Health Care Ad". Politifi.com. Archived from the original on December 16, 2017. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
58. ^ [2][dead link]
59. ^ "Editorial | Conway is best Senate choice for Democrats". The Courier-Journal. April 18, 2010. Retrieved February 14, 2015.
60. ^ "Jack Conway for United States Senate". Democratsenators.org. Archived from the original on May 26, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
61. ^ Gourlay, Kristin Espeland (May 18, 2010). "Conway Wins Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate Seat". WFPL News. Archived from the original on July 19, 2011. Retrieved May 20, 2010.
62. ^ "Endorsements". Jack Conway for United States Senate. Archived from the original on March 7, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
63. ^ "Jack Conway for United States Senate". Democratsenators.org. Archived from the original on May 25, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
64. ^ "C-J Endorsement Checklist". The Courier-Journal. May 16, 2010. Retrieved May 18, 2010.(registration required)
65. ^ "Enquirer endorses Jack Conway". The Kentucky Enquirer. May 15, 2010. Retrieved May 21, 2010.
66. ^ "AG Jack Conway's achievements give him edge for Democrats". Lexington Herald-Leader. May 9, 2010. Archived from the original on May 13, 2010. Retrieved May 18, 2010.
67. ^ [3][dead link]
68. ^ a b "Kentucky: Secretary of State – Candidate Filing Procedures". Sos.ky.gov. January 28, 2010. Archived from the original on June 16, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
69. ^ "Libertarian Party of Kentucky Speaks About Rand Paul". lpky.org. May 25, 2010. Archived from the original on July 16, 2011. Retrieved August 13, 2010.
70. ^ Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State Archived November 22, 2015, at the Wayback Machine Kentucky Secretary of State
71. ^ "Information for Billy Ray Wilson, Candidate for US Senator". Apps.sos.ky.gov. Archived from the original on February 27, 2012. Retrieved May 8, 2012.
72. ^ "KY US Senate Race – November 2, 2010". Our Campaigns. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
73. ^ Voss, D. Stephen & Gross, Donald (2011). "Chapter 8: Poster Child for the Tea Party: Rand Paul of Kentucky". In Miller, William J. & Walling, Jeremy D. (eds.). Tea Party Effects on 2010 Senate Elections. Lexington Books. pp. 141–172. ISBN 978-0739167014.
74. ^ a b Sargent, Greg. ""Woman attacked by Rand Paul supporters has concussion, sprained arm, MoveOn says" (October 26, 2010) Washington Post". Voices.washingtonpost.com. Retrieved May 8, 2012.
75. ^ ""Democrats Use 'Head Stomping' in Ad Blasting Rand Paul" (October 28, 2010)". CBS News. Archived from the original on January 22, 2011. Retrieved May 8, 2012.
76. ^ Alford, Roger (October 26, 2010). "Paul volunteer ordered to court for scuffle". Associated Press. Archived from the original on October 29, 2010. Retrieved July 7, 2012.
77. ^ Steitzer, Stephenie (October 29, 2010). ""Outside groups spend big in U.S. Senate race" (October 29, 2010) Louisville Courier-Journal". Courier-journal.com. Archived from the original on July 31, 2012. Retrieved May 8, 2012.(registration required)
78. ^ ""Outside spending – Kentucky Senate" (xxx) Sunlight Foundation". Reporting.sunlightfoundation.com. Archived from the original on July 23, 2012. Retrieved May 8, 2012.
79. ^ "Enquirer endorses Paul for US Senate". The Kentucky Enquirer. October 24, 2010. Retrieved October 31, 2010.
80. ^ "Send a Message; vote for Rand Paul". The Richmond Register. October 30, 2010. Retrieved October 31, 2010.
81. ^ "Rand Paul is the right man for the Senate". Bowling Green Daily News. October 27, 2010. Retrieved October 31, 2010.
82. ^ "National Federation of Independent Business Endorses Dr. Rand Paul" Archived April 30, 2012, at the Wayback Machine, September 23, 2010
83. ^ "Council For Citizens Against Government Waste Endorses Dr. Rand Paul" Archived March 9, 2012, at the Wayback Machine, September 23, 2010
84. ^ "National Right to Life Endorses Rand Paul" Archived August 7, 2012, at the Wayback Machine, September 17, 2010
85. ^ "US Chamber of Commerce Endorses Rand Paul" Archived March 9, 2012, at the Wayback Machine, September 15, 2010
86. ^ "Rand Paul Receives Endorsement of the National Vietnam and Gulf War Veterans Coalition", September 9, 2010
87. ^ "Governor Mike Huckabee and Huck Pac Endorse Rand Paul for U.S. Senate in Kentucky", September 16, 2010
88. ^ Turner, Trish (October 21, 2010). "Religious Attack Ad Rallies Conservatives to Rand Paul's Side". Fox News. Archived from the original on October 23, 2010. Retrieved October 23, 2010.
89. ^ "FRC Action PAC Endorses Rand Paul for U.S. Senate" (Press release). FRC Action PAC. October 22, 2010. Retrieved October 24, 2010.
90. ^ "Editorials". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved May 8, 2012.(registration required)
91. ^ "Herald Leader: Conway right choice for U.S. Senate". October 17, 2010. Archived from the original on December 2, 2010.
92. ^ Cords, Nancy, Hirschkorn, Phil (October 4, 2010). "Rand Paul, Jack Conway Face Off in Kentucky Senate Debate". CBS News. Retrieved January 10, 2014.`{{cite news}}`: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
93. ^ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 20, 2010.
94. ^ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 20, 2010.
95. ^ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 20, 2010.
96. ^ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 20, 2010.
97. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on November 13, 2008. Retrieved October 20, 2010.
98. ^ "Election 2010: Senate Balance Of Power". Rasmussen Reports. Retrieved October 29, 2010.
99. ^ "Senate Race Ratings". The New York Times. Retrieved October 20, 2010.
100. ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Kentucky". fec.gov. Retrieved October 24, 2010.[dead link]
101. ^ "2010 General Election Results" (PDF). Kentucky State Board of Elections.

## Further reading[edit]

Voss, D. Stephen & Gross, Donald (2011). "Chapter 8: Poster Child for the Tea Party: Rand Paul of Kentucky". In Miller, William J. & Walling, Jeremy D. (eds.). Tea Party Effects on 2010 Senate Elections. Lexington Books. pp. 141–172. ISBN 978-0739167014.

## External links[edit]

* Kentucky State Board of Elections
* U.S. Congress candidates for Kentucky (Archive) at Project Vote Smart
* Kentucky U.S. Senate 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
* Campaign contributions from Open Secrets
* 2010 Kentucky Senate General Election: Rand Paul (R) vs Jack Conway (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
* Election 2010: Kentucky Senate from Rasmussen Reports
* 2010 Kentucky Senate Race from Real Clear Politics
* 2010 Kentucky Senate Race from CQ Politics
* Race profile from The New York Times
* Kentucky Senate election coverage from The Courier-Journal, Louisville
* Kentucky Senate election coverage from the Lexington Herald-Leader, including Voter's Guide for Democratic Archived 2011-07-13 at the Wayback Machine and Republican Archived 2011-07-13 at the Wayback Machine candidates

Debates

* Kentucky Senate Democratic Primary Debate, C-SPAN, May 3, 2010
* Kentucky Senate Republican Primary Debate, C-SPAN, May 10, 2010
* Kentucky Senate Candidate Forum, C-SPAN, July 22, 2010
* Kentucky Senate Debate, Fox News Sunday, October 3, 2010, full transcript

Official campaign websites (Archived)

* Jack Conway for U.S. Senate
* Rand Paul for U.S. Senate

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(2009 <-)  2010 United States elections (-> 2011)

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