2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

* * *

| <- 2006 | November 6, 2012 | 2018 ->

|
|

Turnout| 72.5% (voting eligible)[1]
|  |  |

|
|

Nominee  | Tammy Baldwin | Tommy Thompson |
Party  | Democratic | Republican
Popular vote  | 1,547,104 | 1,380,126
Percentage  | 51.41% | 45.86%

* * *

County results

Precinct results

Baldwin:  40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
Thompson:  40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
Tie No data

* * *

| U.S. senator before election

Herb Kohl
Democratic

| Elected U.S. Senator

Tammy Baldwin
Democratic

|

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* v
* t
* e

The 2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2012, alongside a U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Herb Kohl retired instead of running for re-election to a fifth term. This was the first open Senate seat in Wisconsin since 1988, when Kohl won his first term.

Primary elections were held on August 14, 2012. Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. The Republican nominee was former Wisconsin Governor and U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson, who won with a plurality in a four-way primary race. In the general election, Baldwin defeated Thompson and won the open seat. She became the first woman elected to represent Wisconsin in the Senate and the first openly gay U.S. senator in history. This is also the only time Thompson lost a statewide race.

## Background

[edit]

Incumbent Democratic senator Herb Kohl was re-elected to a fourth term in 2006, beating Republican attorney Robert Lorge by 67% to 30%. Kohl's lack of fundraising suggested his potential retirement.[2] There was speculation that Kohl might decide to retire to allow Russ Feingold, who lost his re-election bid in 2010, to run again, although Mike Tate, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, dismissed speculation about Kohl's potential retirement.[3] Ultimately, Kohl announced in May 2011 that he would not run for re-election in 2012.

## Democratic primary

[edit]

Despite speculation that Kohl would retire to make way for his former Senate colleague Russ Feingold, who had been unseated in 2010, Feingold chose not to enter the race. Other potential candidates also declined to run, leaving Baldwin unopposed in the Democratic primary.

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Declared

[edit]

* Tammy Baldwin, U.S. representative[4]

#### Declined

[edit]

* Tom Barrett, mayor of Milwaukee[5]
* Kathleen Falk, former Dane County executive (1997–2011)[6]
* Russ Feingold, former U.S. senator[7]
* Steve Kagen, former U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 8th congressional district (2006–2011)[8]
* Ron Kind, U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district[9]
* Herb Kohl, incumbent U.S. senator[10][11]
* Gwen Moore, U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 4th congressional district[12]
* Tim Sullivan, businessman[13]

### Polling

[edit]

Hypothetical polling

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Tammy
Baldwin  | Jon
Erpenbach  | Russ
Feingold  | Kathleen
Falk  | Steve
Kagen  | Ron
Kind  | Barbara
Lawton  | Gwen
Moore  | Other/
Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[14] | May 19–22, 2011  | 783  | ±3.5%  | 12%  | 5%  | 70% | 1%  | 3%  | 4%  | 1%  | 2%  | 3%
30% | 13%  | —  | 4%  | 17%  | 16%  | 3%  | 6%  | 12%
Magellan Strategies[15] | July 12–13, 2011  | 627  | ±3.9%  | 46% | —  | —  | —  | 21%  | —  | —  | —  | 33%
41% | —  | —  | —  | —  | 19%  | —  | —  | 40%
Public Policy Polling[16] | August 12–14, 2011  | 387  | ±5%  | 48% | —  | —  | —  | 19%  | —  | —  | —  | 33%
37% | —  | —  | —  | 15%  | 21%  | —  | —  | 27%

### Results

[edit]

Democratic primary results[17] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Democratic | Tammy Baldwin | 185,265  | 99.77
| Democratic | Write ins  | 424  | 0.23
Total votes  | 185,689  | 100

## Republican primary

[edit]

Congressman and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan stated he would not run if Kohl sought reelection, but would contemplate a run if Kohl retired.[18] Ryan later stated that he was "95 percent sure" that he would not run.[19] He was later chosen as the Republican nominee for vice president by presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Six candidates declared for the seat, although two later withdrew. The contest turned out to be a four-way fight. Although a large majority of Republican primary voters consistently expressed a preference for a nominee "more conservative" than Tommy Thompson, Eric Hovde and Mark Neumann split the conservative vote, allowing Thompson to narrowly prevail with a plurality of the vote.[20]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Declared

[edit]

* Jeff Fitzgerald, Speaker of the Wisconsin State Assembly[21]
* Eric Hovde, businessman[22]
* Mark Neumann, former U.S. representative, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1998, and candidate for governor in 2010[23][24]
* Tommy Thompson, former governor of Wisconsin and former secretary of Health and Human Services[25]

#### Withdrew

[edit]

* Frank Lasee, state senator[26] (endorsed Eric Hovde)
* Kip Smith, physical therapist[27]

#### Declined

[edit]

* Mark Andrew Green, former U.S. representative and former United States ambassador to Tanzania[28]
* Theodore Kanavas, former state senator[29]
* Paul Ryan, U.S. representative[30]
* Tim Sullivan, businessman[13]
* J. B. Van Hollen, Wisconsin attorney general[31]

### Polling

[edit]

Poll source  | Date(s) administered  | Sample
size  | Margin of
error  | Jeff
Fitzgerald  | Eric
Hovde  | Mark
Neumann  | Tommy
Thompson  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[32] | August 8–9, 2012  | 557  | ± 4.2%  | 15%  | 27% | 24%  | 25%  | 9%
Marquette University[33] | August 2–5, 2012  | 519  | ± 4.4%  | 13%  | 20%  | 18%  | 28% | 7%
We Ask America[34] | July 31, 2012  | 1,237  | ± 2.8%  | 12%  | 23% | 17%  | 23%  | 25%
Public Policy Polling[35] | July 30–31, 2012  | 400  | ± 4.9%  | 13%  | 28% | 25%  | 25%  | 9%
—  | 33% | 27%  | 30%  | 10%
Marquette University[36] | July 5–8, 2012  | 432  | ± 4.8%  | 6%  | 23%  | 10%  | 35% | 25%
Public Policy Polling[37] | July 5–8, 2012  | 564  | ± 4.1%  | 9%  | 31% | 15%  | 29%  | 16%
OnMessage Inc.[38]+ | June 26–27, 2012  | 600  | ± 4.0%  | 7%  | 29%  | 16%  | 34% | 14%
Marquette University[39] | June 13–16, 2012  | 344  | ± 5.4%  | 10%  | 14%  | 16%  | 34% | 25%
Public Policy Polling[40] | March 31–April 1, 2012  | 609  | ± 4.0%  | 18%  | —  | 25%  | 38% | 19%
Public Policy Polling[41] | February 23–26, 2012  | 556  | ± 4.2%  | 22%  | —  | 22%  | 39% | 17%
32%  | —  | 42% | —  | 26%
37%  | —  | —  | 46% | 17%
—  | —  | 36%  | 46% | 18%
Public Policy Polling[42] | October 20–23, 2011  | 650  | ± 3.8%  | 21%  | —  | 29%  | 35% | 11%
—  | —  | 39%  | 43% | 17%
28%  | —  | 44% | —  | 28%
35%  | —  | —  | 47% | 17%
Public Policy Polling[16] | August 12–14, 2011  | 362  | ± 5.2%  | —  | —  | 39%  | 47% | 13%
Magellan Strategies[43] | July 12–13, 2011  | 638  | ± 3.9%  | 15%  | —  | 26%  | 41% | 18%
—  | —  | 36%  | 44% | 20%

* + Commissioned by Eric Hovde

Poll source  | Date(s) administered  | Sample
size  | Margin of
error  | Tommy
Thompson  | Someone more
conservative  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[35] | July 30–31, 2012  | 400  | ± 4.9%  | 29%  | 58% | 13%
Public Policy Polling[37] | July 5–8, 2012  | 564  | ± 4.1%  | 34%  | 50% | 17%
Public Policy Polling[41] | February 23–26, 2012  | 556  | ± 4.2%  | 37%  | 47% | 17%
Public Policy Polling[42] | October 20–23, 2011  | 650  | ± 3.8%  | 35%  | 51% | 14%

### Endorsements

[edit]

Jeff Fitzgerald

* Scott Suder, Wisconsin Assembly Majority Leader (Abbotsford)[44][failed verification]
* Robin Vos, Wisconsin Assembly Finance Chair (Rochester)[44][failed verification]
* Joan Ballweg, Wisconsin Assembly Caucus Chair (Markesan)[44][failed verification]
* Mary Williams, Wisconsin Assembly Caucus Secretary (Medford)[44][failed verification]
* Samantha Kerkman, Wisconsin Assembly Caucus Sergeant at Arms (Randall)[44][failed verification]
* Bill Kramer, Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Pro-Temp (Waukesha)[45]
* Dan Knodl, Wisconsin Assembly Assistant Assembly Majority Leader (Germantown)[44][failed verification]
* Joel Kleefisch, Wisconsin State Representative (Oconomowoc)[45]
* Don Pridemore, Wisconsin State Representative (Hartford)[45]
* Paul Farrow, Wisconsin State Representative (Pewaukee)[45]
* Dale Kooyenga, Wisconsin State Representative (Brookfield)[45]
* Mike Kuglitsch, Wisconsin State Representative (New Berlin)[45]
* Jim Ott, Wisconsin State Representative (Brown Deer)[45]

Eric Hovde

* Frank Lasee, Wisconsin State Senator (De Pere)[45]
* Leah Vukmir, Wisconsin State Senator (Wauwatosa)[45]
* FreedomWorks[46]

Mark Neumann

* Club for Growth[47]
* Family Research Council[48]
* Rand Paul, U.S. Senator (KY)[49]
* Tom Coburn, U.S. Senator (OK)[50]
* Jim DeMint, U.S. Senator (SC)[51]
* Mike Lee, U.S. Senator (UT)[52]
* Jack Voight, former Wisconsin State Treasurer[53]
* Kurt W. Schuller, Wisconsin State Treasurer[53]
* GING PAC, a PAC of Social Conservatives[54]
* Pat Toomey, U.S. Senator (PA)[55]
* Wisconsin Right to Life[56]
* Mark Levin, Nationally Syndicated Talk Show Host[57]

Tommy Thompson

Politicians

* Herman Cain, business executive, radio host, syndicated columnist, former candidate for the 2012 U.S. Republican Party presidential nomination.[58]
* Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the House of Representatives, and 2012 presidential candidate[59]
* Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana[60]
* Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York City and 2008 Presidential Candidate[61]
* Lamar Alexander, U.S. senator from Tennessee[62]
* John Hoeven, U.S. senator from North Dakota[62]
* Mike Johanns, U.S. senator from Nebraska[62]
* Jim Risch, U.S. senator from Idaho[62]
* Mark Green, former U.S. representative and former United States Ambassador to Tanzania[28]
* J.B. Van Hollen, Wisconsin attorney general[28]
* Cathy Zeuske, former Wisconsin state treasurer[28]
* Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas, 2008 presidential candidate and Fox News talk show host[63]
* Scott Klug, former U.S. representative (WI)
* Margaret Farrow, former lieutenant governor of Wisconsin
* Mike Leavitt, former governor of Utah, former Administrator of the EPA, and former Secretary of Health and Human Services[64]
* John Engler, former governor of Michigan[64]
* Dirk Kempthorne, former governor of Idaho and former Secretary of the Interior[64]
* Frank Keating, former governor of Oklahoma[64]
* Tom Ridge, former governor of Pennsylvania and former Secretary of Homeland Security[64]
* Bill Weld, former governor of Massachusetts[64]
* Bill Graves, former governor of Kansas[64]
* Jeb Bush, former Florida governor[60]

Celebrities and political commentators[65]

* Ted Nugent, musician and conservative activist [66]
* Michael Reagan, author, radio host, and son of President Ronald Reagan
* Dick Morris, political strategist, author, Fox News analyst, former adviser to President Bill Clinton[67]
* Joe Wurzelbacher, a.k.a. Joe the Plumber[68]

Cabinet officials[65]

* Donald Rumsfeld, former Secretary of Defense from 1975 to 1977 and 2001 to 2006, former White House chief of staff, and former ambassador
* Donald L. Nelson, former deputy assistant Secretary of Defense
* Ray Boland, colonel and former Veterans Affairs Secretary

State legislators[65]

* John Gard, former Wisconsin Assembly Speaker
* State Senator Rob Cowles
* State Senator Mike Ellis
* Rep. Evan Wynn (Whitewater)
* Rep. Joseph Knilans (Janesville)
* State Senator Sheila Harsdorf
* State Senator Luther Olsen
* State Senator Dale Schultz
* State Senator Jerry Petrowski
* Van Wanggaard, former state senator

Political organization officials[65]

* David Keene, president of the National Rifle Association of America and former chairman of the American Conservative Union[69]
* Former Republican Party of Wisconsin Chairman Rick Graber
* Wisconsin Club for Growth founders Terry and Mary Kohler
* Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Sue Lynch
* Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Ginny Marschman
* Republican National Convention co-chairman Mary Buestrin

Law enforcement officials[65]

* Waukesha County Sheriff Daniel Trawicki
* Waukesha County District Attorney Brad Schimel

Organizations[65]

* Wisconsin Right to Life
* Dairy Business Association
* Wisconsin Corn Growers Association
* Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation
* Milwaukee Police Association
* Milwaukee Police Supervisors Organization
* Milwaukee Professional Firefighters Association
* Wisconsin Grocers Association
* Wisconsin Restaurant Association
* Chiropractic Society of Wisconsin
* Wisconsin Health Care Association
* Wisconsin Mortgage Bankers Association
* GOProud[70]

### Results

[edit]

Results by county

Thompson

* 20–30%

* 30–40%

* 40–50%

* 50–60%

* 60–70%

Hovde

* 30–40%

* 40–50%

Neumann

* 30–40%

* 40–50%

Republican primary results[17] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Republican | Tommy Thompson | 197,928  | 34.0
| Republican | Eric Hovde  | 179,557  | 30.8
| Republican | Mark Neumann | 132,786  | 22.8
| Republican | Jeff Fitzgerald | 71,871  | 12.3
| Republican | Write ins  | 244  | 0.04
Total votes  | 582,630  | 100

## General election

[edit]

Thompson and Baldwin with WISN-TV's Mike Gousha at the October 26 debate.

### Candidates

[edit]

* Tammy Baldwin (Democratic), U.S. Representative
* Tommy Thompson (Republican), former governor and former Secretary of Health and Human Services
* Joseph Kexel (Libertarian), IT consultant[71]
* Nimrod Allen III (independent), consultant and former Marine[72]

### Debates

[edit]

Baldwin and Thompson agreed to three debates: September 28, October 18 and 26, all broadcast statewide, and nationwide through C-SPAN.

The first debate originated from the studios of Milwaukee Public Television and was coordinated by the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association. It aired on MPTV, Wisconsin Public Television, Wisconsin Public Radio and several commercial stations throughout the state.

The second debate originated from the Theater for Civic Engagement on the campus of the University of Wisconsin–Marathon County in Wausau and was coordinated by WPT/WPR, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Milwaukee's WTMJ-TV. Again it was carried on MPTV, WPT/WPR, and several commercial stations, including WTMJ-TV.

The third debate originated from Eckstein Hall on the campus of Marquette University Law School and was coordinated by WISN-TV in Milwaukee. It aired on that station and across the state's other ABC affiliated stations.

External links

* Complete video of debate, September 28, 2012 - C-SPAN
* Complete video of debate, October 18, 2012 - C-SPAN
* Complete video of debate, October 26, 2012 - C-SPAN

### Fundraising

[edit]

Candidate (party)  | Receipts  | Disbursements  | Cash on hand  | Debt

|
|
|
|

Tammy Baldwin (D)  | $14,643,869  | $15,204,940  | $143,852  | $0
Tommy Thompson (R)  | $9,585,823  | $9,582,888  | $2,934  | $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[73]

#### Top contributors

[edit]

Tammy Baldwin  | Contribution  | Tommy Thompson  | Contribution

|
|
|

EMILY's List | $431,843  | Michael Best & Friedrich LLP | $36,825
MoveOn.org | $171,467  | ABC Supply | $28,500
University of Wisconsin | $117,600  | Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld | $28,250
J Street PAC | $113,758  | Direct Supply | $27,500
League of Conservation Voters | $95,308  | Wisconsin Energy Corporation | $25,750
Democracy Engine  | $81,330  | American Foods Group  | $25,000
Council for a Livable World | $54,130  | Gilead Sciences | $23,000
Voices for Progress  | $25,749  | Centene Corporation | $20,750
Marshfield Clinic | $21,800  | BGR Group  | $20,500
Microsoft Corporation | $18,564  | C. R. Bard, Inc. | $20,000
Source: OpenSecrets[74]

#### Top industries

[edit]

Tammy Baldwin  | Contribution  | Tommy Thompson  | Contribution

|
|
|

Women's Issues | $915,482  | Retired  | $858,276
Retired  | $791,756  | Leadership PACs | $244,804
Lawyers/Law Firms | $597,674  | Financial Institutions | $243,636
Democratic/Liberal  | $555,792  | Lawyers/Law Firms  | $228,379
Leadership PACs  | $309,430  | Real Estate | $227,687
Universities | $298,298  | Pharmaceuticals/Health Products  | $204,302
Human Rights Organisations | $215,539  | Insurance Industry | $202,654
Health Professionals | $202,654  | Manufacturing & Distributing  | $169,104
Pro-Israel | $172,380  | Health Professionals  | $150,149
Business Services  | $163,238  | Lobbyists | $138,700
Source: OpenSecrets[75]

### Predictions

[edit]

Source  | Ranking  | As of

|
|

The Cook Political Report[76] | Tossup  | November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[77] | Lean D  | November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[78] | Tossup  | November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[79] | Tossup  | November 5, 2012

### Polling

[edit]

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Tammy
Baldwin (D)  | Tommy
Thompson (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[80] | May 19–22, 2011  | 1,636  | ±2.4%  | 44%  | 45% | —  | 11%
Public Policy Polling[81] | August 12–14, 2011  | 830  | ±3.4%  | 42%  | 50% | —  | 8%
Public Policy Polling[82] | October 20–23, 2011  | 1,170  | ±2.9%  | 44%  | 46% | —  | 10%
Rasmussen Reports[83] | October 26, 2011  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 42%  | 49% | 4%  | 6%
Marquette University[84] | February 16–19, 2012  | 716  | ±3.7%  | 42%  | 48% | 1%  | 9%
Public Policy Polling[41] | February 23–26, 2012  | 900  | ±3.3%  | 46% | 45%  | —  | 9%
Rasmussen Reports[85] | February 27, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 36%  | 50% | 4%  | 10%
Rasmussen Reports[86] | March 27, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 44%  | 48% | 4%  | 4%
Public Policy Polling[87] | April 13–15, 2012  | 1,136  | ±2.9%  | 45%  | 47% | —  | 8%
Rasmussen Reports[88] | May 9, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 38%  | 50% | 5%  | 7%
Public Policy Polling[89] | May 11–13, 2012  | 851  | ±3.4%  | 42%  | 47% | —  | 11%
Rasmussen Reports[90] | June 12, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 36%  | 52% | 6%  | 6%
Marquette University[39] | June 13–16, 2012  | 707  | ±3.8%  | 41%  | 49% | —  | 10%
Public Policy Polling[37] | July 5–8, 2012  | 1,057  | ±3.0%  | 45% | 45% | —  | 11%
Marquette University[36] | July 5–8, 2012  | 810  | ±3.5%  | 41%  | 45% | —  | 14%
Rasmussen Reports[91] | July 25, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 48% | 41%  | 5%  | 6%
Marquette University[92] | August 2–5, 2012  | 1,400  | ±2.6%  | 43%  | 48% | —  | 5%
Quinnipiac[93] | July 31 – August 6, 2012  | 1,428  | ±2.6%  | 47% | 47% | 1%  | 5%
Rasmussen Reports[94] | August 15, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 43%  | 54% | 1%  | 3%
Public Policy Polling[95] | August 16–19, 2012  | 1,308  | ±2.7%  | 44%  | 49% | —  | 7%
Marquette University[96] | August 16–19, 2012  | 576  | ±4.2%  | 41%  | 50% | —  | 9%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac[97] | August 15–21, 2012  | 1,190  | ±3.0%  | 44%  | 50% | 1%  | 4%
YouGov[98] | September 4–11, 2012  | 772  | ±n/a  | 42%  | 48% | —  | 10%
Public Policy Polling[99] | September 12–13, 2012  | 959  | ±n/a  | 48% | 45%  | —  | 6%
Marquette University[100] | September 13–16, 2012  | 705  | ±3.8%  | 50% | 41%  | —  | 5%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac[101] | September 11–17, 2012  | 1,485  | ±2.5%  | 47% | 47% | —  | 6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll[102] | September 16–18, 2012  | 968  | ±3.2%  | 48% | 46%  | —  | 5%
Public Policy Polling[103] | September 18–19, 2012  | 842  | ±3.4%  | 49% | 45%  | —  | 6%
We Ask America[104] | September 20–23, 2012  | 1,238  | ±2.8%  | 52% | 40%  | —  | 8%
Marquette University[105] | September 27–30, 2012  | 894  | ±3.3%  | 48% | 44%  | —  | 6%
Public Policy Polling[106] | October 4–6, 2012  | 979  | ±3.1%  | 49% | 46%  | —  | 6%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac[107] | October 4–9, 2012  | 1,327  | ±2.7%  | 48% | 46%  | —  | 5%
Rasmussen Reports[108] | October 9, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 51% | 47%  | 1%  | 2%
YouGov[109] | October 4–11, 2012  | 639  | ±4.9%  | 48% | 43%  | —  | 9%
Marquette University[110] | October 11–14, 2012  | 870  | ±3.3%  | 45%  | 46% | —  | 7%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll[111] | October 15–17, 2012  | 1,013  | ±3.1%  | 49% | 45%  | 1%  | 5%
Mason-Dixon[112] | October 15–17, 2012  | 625  | ±4%  | 47% | 45%  | —  | 8%
Rasmussen Reports[113] | October 18, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 46%  | 48% | 3%  | 3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion[114] | October 18–20, 2012  | 502  | ±4.5%  | 45% | 42%  | 3%  | 11%
Rasmussen Reports[115] | October 25, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 47%  | 48% | 2%  | 4%
Marquette University[116] | October 25–28, 2012  | 1,243  | ±2.8%  | 47% | 43%  | —  | 10%
St. Norbert College[117] | October 25–29, 2012  | 402  | ±5%  | 43%  | 46% | —  | 11%
Rasmussen Reports[115] | October 29, 2012  | 750  | ±4.0%  | 48% | 48% | 1%  | 2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[118] | October 31, 2012  | 1,065  | ±3.0%  | 48% | 47%  | 4%  | 1%
WeAskAmerica[119] | October 31 – November 1, 2012  | 1,210  | ±3%  | 49% | 46%  | —  | 5%
YouGov[120] | October 31 – November 3, 2012  | 1,225  | ±3.1%  | 48% | 47%  | —  | 5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion[121] | November 1–3, 2012  | 482  | ±4.5%  | 50% | 48%  | 2%  | —
Public Policy Polling[122] | November 2–3, 2012  | 1,256  | ±2.8%  | 51% | 48%  | —  | 2%

Hypothetical polling

with Tammy Baldwin

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Tammy
Baldwin (D)  | Jeff
Fitzgerald (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[80] | May 19–22, 2011  | 1,636  | ±2.4%  | 48% | 37%  | —  | 15%
Public Policy Polling[82] | October 20–23, 2011  | 1,170  | ±2.9%  | 44% | 40%  | —  | 16%
Rasmussen Reports[83] | October 26, 2011  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 46% | 39%  | 4%  | 6%
Marquette University[84] | February 16–19, 2012  | 716  | ±3.7%  | 45% | 37%  | 3%  | 15%
Public Policy Polling[41] | February 23–26, 2012  | 900  | ±3.3%  | 47% | 39%  | —  | 14%
Rasmussen Reports[85] | February 27, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 40%  | 41% | 4%  | 15%
Rasmussen Reports[86] | March 27, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 48% | 40%  | 4%  | 7%
Public Policy Polling[87] | April 13–15, 2012  | 1,136  | ±2.9%  | 47% | 40%  | —  | 13%
Rasmussen Reports[88] | May 9, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 45% | 41%  | 4%  | 9%
Rasmussen Reports[115] | June 12, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 44% | 43%  | 5%  | 8%
Marquette University[39] | June 13–16, 2012  | 707  | ±3.8%  | 45% | 39%  | —  | 16%
Public Policy Polling[37] | July 5–8, 2012  | 1,057  | ±3.0%  | 46% | 42%  | —  | 13%
Marquette University[36] | July 5–8, 2012  | 810  | ±3.5%  | 43% | 37%  | —  | 20%
Rasmussen Reports[115] | July 25, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 47% | 37%  | 6%  | 10%
Marquette University[92] | August 2–5, 2012  | 1,400  | ±2.6%  | 45% | 40%  | —  | 7%
Quinnipiac[93] | July 31 – August 6, 2012  | 1,428  | ±2.6%  | 51% | 39%  | —  | 9%
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Tammy
Baldwin (D)  | Eric
Hovde (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[89] | May 11–13, 2012  | 851  | ±3.4%  | 41%  | 45% | —  | 14%
Rasmussen Reports[115] | June 12, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 42%  | 44% | 4%  | 10%
Marquette University[39] | June 13–16, 2012  | 707  | ±3.8%  | 45% | 36%  | —  | 19%
Public Policy Polling[37] | July 5–8, 2012  | 1,057  | ±3.0%  | 44%  | 45% | —  | 11%
Marquette University[36] | July 5–8, 2012  | 810  | ±3.5%  | 44% | 38%  | —  | 18%
Rasmussen Reports[115] | July 25, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 45% | 42%  | 5%  | 8%
Marquette University[92] | August 2–5, 2012  | 1,400  | ±2.6%  | 44% | 41%  | —  | 9%
Quinnipiac[93] | July 31 – August 6, 2012  | 1,428  | ±2.6%  | 47% | 43%  | 1%  | 8%
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Tammy
Baldwin (D)  | Mark
Neumann (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[80] | May 19–22, 2011  | 1,636  | ±2.4%  | 46% | 41%  | —  | 13%
Public Policy Polling[81] | August 12–14, 2011  | 830  | ±3.4%  | 40%  | 44% | —  | 15%
Public Policy Polling[82] | October 20–23, 2011  | 1,170  | ±2.9%  | 44% | 43%  | —  | 13%
Rasmussen Reports[83] | October 26, 2011  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 44% | 43%  | 4%  | 9%
Marquette University[84] | February 16–19, 2012  | 716  | ±3.7%  | 44% | 40%  | 2%  | 14%
Public Policy Polling[41] | February 23–26, 2012  | 900  | ±3.3%  | 47% | 41%  | —  | 12%
Rasmussen Reports[85] | February 27, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 37%  | 46% | 4%  | 13%
Rasmussen Reports[86] | March 27, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 48% | 40%  | 4%  | 8%
Public Policy Polling[87] | April 13–15, 2012  | 1,136  | ±2.9%  | 46% | 45%  | —  | 9%
Rasmussen Reports[88] | May 9, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 42%  | 44% | 4%  | 9%
Public Policy Polling[89] | May 11–13, 2012  | 851  | ±3.4%  | 42%  | 46% | —  | 12%
Rasmussen Reports[115] | June 12, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 43%  | 45% | 5%  | 7%
Marquette University[39] | June 13–16, 2012  | 707  | ±3.8%  | 44% | 44% | —  | 12%
Public Policy Polling[37] | July 5–8, 2012  | 1,057  | ±3.0%  | 45% | 41%  | —  | 13%
Marquette University[36] | July 5–8, 2012  | 810  | ±3.5%  | 43% | 40%  | —  | 17%
Rasmussen Reports[115] | July 25, 2012  | 500  | ±4.5%  | 48% | 42%  | 3%  | 8%
Marquette University[92] | August 2–5, 2012  | 1,400  | ±2.6%  | 44% | 44% | —  | 6%
Quinnipiac[93] | July 31 – August 6, 2012  | 1,428  | ±2.6%  | 48% | 45%  | 1%  | 6%
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Tammy
Baldwin (D)  | J. B.
Van Hollen (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[80] | May 19–22, 2011  | 1,636  | ±2.4%  | 46% | 39%  | —  | 15%

with Russ Feingold

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Russ
Feingold (D)  | Jeff
Fitzgerald (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[80] | May 19–22, 2011  | 1,636  | ±2.4%  | 55% | 39%  | —  | 7%
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Russ
Feingold (D)  | Mark
Neumann (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[81] | August 12–14, 2011  | 830  | ±3.4%  | 51% | 44%  | —  | 5%
Public Policy Polling[80] | May 19–22, 2011  | 1,636  | ±2.4%  | 53% | 41%  | —  | 6%
Public Policy Polling[123] | February 24–27, 2011  | 768  | ±3.5%  | 50% | 40%  | —  | 10%
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Russ
Feingold (D)  | Paul
Ryan (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[124] | December 10–12, 2010  | 702  | ±3.7%  | 50% | 43%  | —  | 7%
Public Policy Polling[123] | February 24–27, 2011  | 768  | ±3.5%  | 49% | 42%  | —  | 9%
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Russ
Feingold (D)  | Tommy
Thompson (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[124] | December 10–12, 2010  | 702  | ±3.7%  | 49% | 40%  | —  | 11%
Public Policy Polling[80] | May 19–22, 2011  | 1,636  | ±2.4%  | 52% | 42%  | —  | 6%
Public Policy Polling[81] | August 12–14, 2011  | 830  | ±3.4%  | 48% | 47%  | —  | 5%
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Russ
Feingold (D)  | J. B.
Van Hollen (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[124] | December 10–12, 2010  | 702  | ±3.7%  | 52% | 41%  | —  | 7%
Public Policy Polling[123] | February 24–27, 2011  | 768  | ±3.5%  | 51% | 39%  | —  | 10%
Public Policy Polling[80] | May 19–22, 2011  | 1,636  | ±2.4%  | 53% | 38%  | —  | 9%

with Steve Kagen

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Steve
Kagen (D)  | Jeff
Fitzgerald (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[80] | May 19–22, 2011  | 1,636  | ±2.4%  | 43% | 38%  | —  | 19%
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Steve
Kagen (D)  | Mark
Neumann (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[80] | May 19–22, 2011  | 1,636  | ±2.4%  | 42% | 41%  | —  | 17%
Public Policy Polling[81] | August 12–14, 2011  | 830  | ±3.4%  | 38%  | 45% | —  | 17%
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Steve
Kagen (D)  | Tommy
Thompson (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[80] | May 19–22, 2011  | 1,636  | ±2.4%  | 42%  | 45% | —  | 13%
Public Policy Polling[81] | August 12–14, 2011  | 830  | ±3.4%  | 41%  | 49% | —  | 10%
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Steve
Kagen (D)  | J. B.
Van Hollen (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[80] | May 19–22, 2011  | 1,636  | ±2.4%  | 43% | 38%  | —  | 19%

with Ron Kind

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Ron
Kind (D)  | Jeff
Fitzgerald (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[80] | May 19–22, 2011  | 1,636  | ±2.4%  | 45% | 37%  | —  | 18%
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Ron
Kind (D)  | Mark
Neumann (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[80] | May 19–22, 2011  | 1,636  | ±2.4%  | 44% | 40%  | —  | 16%
Public Policy Polling[81] | August 12–14, 2011  | 830  | ±3.4%  | 40%  | 43% | —  | 17%
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Ron
Kind (D)  | Tommy
Thompson (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[80] | May 19–22, 2011  | 1,636  | ±2.4%  | 44% | 44% | —  | 12%
Public Policy Polling[81] | August 12–14, 2011  | 830  | ±3.4%  | 41%  | 48% | —  | 11%
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Ron
Kind (D)  | J. B.
Van Hollen (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[80] | May 19–22, 2011  | 1,636  | ±2.4%  | 44% | 38%  | —  | 17%

with Herb Kohl

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Herb
Kohl (D)  | Mark
Neumann (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[123] | February 24–27, 2011  | 768  | ±3.5%  | 51% | 37%  | —  | 12%
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Herb
Kohl (D)  | Paul
Ryan (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[124] | December 10–12, 2010  | 702  | ±3.7%  | 48% | 42%  | —  | 11%
Public Policy Polling[123] | February 24–27, 2011  | 768  | ±3.5%  | 49% | 42%  | —  | 10%
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Herb
Kohl (D)  | Tommy
Thompson (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[124] | December 10–12, 2010  | 702  | ±3.7%  | 49% | 40%  | —  | 11%
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered | Sample
size | Margin of
error | Herb
Kohl (D)  | J. B.
Van Hollen (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling[124] | December 10–12, 2010  | 702  | ±3.7%  | 51% | 38%  | —  | 11%
Public Policy Polling[123] | February 24–27, 2011  | 768  | ±3.5%  | 52% | 37%  | —  | 11%

### Results

[edit]

United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2012[125] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %  | ±%

|
|
|
|

| Democratic | Tammy Baldwin | 1,547,104  | 51.41%  | −15.90%
| Republican | Tommy Thompson | 1,380,126  | 45.86%  | +16.38%
| Libertarian | Joseph Kexel  | 62,240  | 2.07%  | N/A
| Independent | Nimrod Allen, III  | 16,455  | 0.55%  | N/A
| Write-in | 3,486  | 0.11%  | +0.05%
Total votes  | 3,009,411  | 100.00%  | N/A
| Democratic hold

#### Counties that flipped Democratic to Republican

[edit]

* Barron (largest city: Rice Lake)
* Brown (largest city: Green Bay)
* Burnett (largest village: Grantsburg)
* Calumet (largest city: Chilton)
* Clark (largest city: Neillsville)
* Iron (largest city: Hurley)
* Jefferson (largest city: Watertown)
* Kewaunee (largest city: Algoma)
* Langlade (largest city: Antigo)
* Manitowoc (largest city: Manitowoc)
* Marathon (largest city: Wausau)
* Marinette (largest city: Marinette)
* Monroe (largest city: Sparta)
* Oconto (largest city: Oconto)
* Oneida (largest city: Rhinelander)
* Outagamie (largest city: Appleton)
* Rusk (largest city: Ladysmith)
* Shawano (largest city: Shawano)
* Washburn (largest city: Spooner)
* Waupaca (largest city: New London)
* Waushara (largest city: Berlin)
* Adams (largest city: Adams)
* Marquette (largest city: Montello)
* Polk (Largest city: Amery)
* Sheboygan (Largest city: Sheboygan)
* St. Croix (Largest city: Hudson)
* Taylor (Largest city: Medford)
* Florence (Largest city: Florence)
* Vilas (Largest city: Eagle River)
* Fond du Lac (Largest city: Fond du Lac)
* Green Lake (Largest city: Green Lake)
* Dodge (Largest city: Juneau)
* Ozaukee (Largest city: Mequon)
* Walworth (Largest city: Whitewater)
* Washington (Largest city: West Bend)
* Waukesha (Largest city: Waukesha)

#### By congressional district

[edit]

Despite losing the state, Thompson won 5 of 8 congressional districts.[126]

District  | Thompson  | Baldwin  | Representative

|
|
|

1st | 50.61% | 46.56%  | Paul Ryan
2nd | 32.28%  | 65.82% | Mark Pocan
3rd | 44.31%  | 52.77% | Ron Kind
4th | 25.15%  | 72.93% | Gwen Moore
5th | 61.06% | 36.68%  | Jim Sensenbrenner
6th | 52.93% | 44.05%  | Tom Petri
7th | 48.93% | 48.06%  | Sean Duffy
8th | 50.21% | 46.63%  | Reid Ribble

## Aftermath

[edit]

Brian Schimming, the vice chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party, partly blamed Thompson's defeat on the fact that he had to face a competitive primary whereas Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination: "[Thompson] blew all his money going through the primary. So when he gets through the primary, it was like three weeks before he was up on the air. [Baldwin] piled on immediately." He claimed "If [Thompson] hadn't had as ugly a primary, we could have won that seat."[127]

## See also

[edit]

* 2012 United States Senate elections
* 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin
* 2012 Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election

## References

[edit]

1. ^ Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 3, 2013.
2. ^ Glauber, Bill (November 3, 2010). "Kohl says he'll work with Johnson". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved November 29, 2010.
3. ^ Hall, Dee (November 4, 2010). "Feingold won't seek office in 2012, official says". Chippewa Herald. Retrieved November 29, 2010.
4. ^ "Tammy Baldwin enters race for open Senate seat". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
5. ^ Burns, Alexander (May 17, 2011). "Barrett closes door on Senate speculation". Politico. Retrieved May 17, 2011.
6. ^ Sullivan, Sean (January 18, 2012). "Falk Announces Candidacy in Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race". National Journal. Archived from the original on January 22, 2012. Retrieved January 28, 2012.
7. ^ Thompson, Krissah (August 19, 2011). "Russ Feingold not running in 2012". The Washington Post.
8. ^ "Baldwin kicks off jobs tour; receives Kagen endorsement". Wispolitics.com. January 5, 2012. Archived from the original on May 8, 2012. Retrieved January 28, 2012.
9. ^ Catanese, David (September 15, 2011). "Rep. Kind says no to Senate run". Politico. Retrieved September 15, 2011.
10. ^ "Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl to Retire". May 13, 2011.
11. ^ "Herb Kohl won't seek reelection". Politico.
12. ^ "Baldwin Campaign: Rep. Gwen Moore endorses Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate". WisPolitics.com. Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved October 21, 2011.
13. ^ a b "Former Bucyrus head unlikely to jump into races next year". WisPolitics.com. November 18, 2011. Archived from the original on December 11, 2011. Retrieved November 21, 2011.
14. ^ Public Policy Polling
15. ^ Magellan Strategies
16. ^ a b Public Policy Polling
17. ^ a b "Canvass Results for 2012 Partisan Primary - 8/14/2012" (PDF). Wisconsin Government Accountability Board. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 29, 2013. Retrieved September 22, 2012.
18. ^ Gilbert, Craig (April 25, 2009). "Ryan shines as GOP seeks vision". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved June 29, 2010.
19. ^ Catanese, David (May 16, 2011). "Ryan telling GOPers he's unlikely to run". Politico. Retrieved May 17, 2011.
20. ^ "Our Campaigns - WI US Senate - R Primary Race - Aug 14, 2012". Our Campaigns.
21. ^ Marley, Patrick (October 11, 2011). "Jeff Fitzgerald announces Senate bid". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved October 11, 2011.
22. ^ "Hovde emerges as new Senate candidate". Leader-Telegram. Archived from the original on March 4, 2016. Retrieved February 27, 2012.
23. ^ Republican Neumann announces Senate run Archived September 28, 2011, at the Wayback Machine WBAY-TV. August 29, 2011. Retrieved August 29, 2011
24. ^ Kyle Trygstad. (August 29, 2011)Ex-Rep. Mark Neumann Enters Wisconsin Senate Race Roll Call. Retrieved August 29, 2011
25. ^ "Tommy Thompson Makes Wisconsin Senate Bid Official". September 19, 2011. Retrieved September 19, 2011.
26. ^ "State Senator Lasee Drops Out Of U.S. Senate Race". Channel3000.com. Archived from the original on February 2, 2012. Retrieved February 15, 2012.
27. ^ "Kip Smith enters U.S. Senate race". onpolitics. WLUK-TV. Archived from the original on July 18, 2012. Retrieved January 1, 2023.
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29. ^ "Kanavas says he won't run for U.S. Senate". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
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## External links

[edit]

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