2015 Portuguese legislative election

Legislative election held in Portugal

2015 Portuguese legislative election

* * *

| ← 2011 | 4 October 2015 | 2019 →

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|

← outgoing members

elected members →

* * *

All 230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic
116 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered| 9,684,922  0.6%
Turnout| 5,408,092 (55.8%)
2.2 pp
|   | First party  | Second party  | Third party

|
|
|

Leader  | Pedro Passos Coelho | António Costa | Catarina Martins
Party  | PSD | PS | BE
Alliance  | PàF |  |
Leader since  | 26 March 2010[a] | 28 September 2014 | 30 November 2014
Leader's seat  | Lisbon[b] | Lisbon | Porto
Last election  | 132 seats, 50.4%[c] | 74 seats, 28.0%  | 8 seats, 5.2%
Seats won  | 107 | 86  | 19
Seat change  |  25  |  12  |  11
Popular vote  | 2,085,465 | 1,747,730  | 550,945
Percentage  | 38.6% | 32.3%  | 10.2%
Swing  |  11.8 pp |  4.3 pp |  5.0 pp

* * *

| Fourth party  | Fifth party

Leader  | Jerónimo de Sousa | André Silva
Party  | PCP | PAN
Alliance  | CDU |
Leader since  | 27 November 2004  | 26 October 2014
Leader's seat  | Lisbon | Lisbon
Last election  | 16 seats, 7.9%  | 0 seats, 1.0%
Seats won  | 17  | 1
Seat change  |  1  |  1
Popular vote  | 445,901  | 75,170
Percentage  | 8.3%  | 1.4%
Swing  |  0.4 pp |  0.4 pp

* * *

Vote winner strength by district

Results by constituency

PSD ran alone in the Azores and Madeira.

* * *

| Prime Minister before election

Pedro Passos Coelho
PSD

| Prime Minister after election

Pedro Passos Coelho
PSD
(20 October - 26 November 2015)[d]
António Costa

|

The 2015 Portuguese legislative election was held on 4 October.[1] All 230 seats of the Assembly of the Republic were in contention.

The right-wing coalition Portugal Ahead (PàF), composed of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the People's Party (CDS-PP), won a plurality of the vote with 38.6 percent, securing almost 47 percent of the seats in the Assembly. Compared with 2011, this was a loss of 12 points in support (although the PSD and the CDS–PP did not contest the 2011 election in coalition). On the electoral map, the coalition won every district in the North and in the Centre except Castelo Branco. They also won in the big districts of Lisbon and Porto. The map shows a clear north–south divide, with the conservative coalition winning almost everything in the North and Centre and the Socialist Party (PS) winning in the South.

The PS was the second most voted political force, winning 32.3 percent of the vote and 37 percent of the seats in the Parliament. The PS received a higher share of the vote than in 2011, but did not increase its share by as much of a margin as had been predicted by the opinion polls prior to September 2015. António Costa, former mayor of Lisbon, was not able to win the city of Lisbon, where the PS lost to PàF by a 35 to 37 percent margin. Although the PS and the other left-wing parties did win a clear overall majority in Parliament, in his concession speech Costa said that he would not support "a negative coalition" with the Left Bloc and Communist Party and that he would rather talk and negotiate with the PSD/CDS–PP coalition.[2]

The Left Bloc (BE), despite predictions by opinion polls, achieved its best result in history,[3] with more than 10 percent of the vote, becoming the third largest parliamentary group. The CDU's (Communists and Greens) share of the vote increased slightly compared to 2011, receiving 8 percent of the vote and one additional MP. The People-Animals-Nature (PAN) also elected one member of parliament becoming the first time since 1999 in which a new party entered the Assembly.[4] Voter turnout reached a new low, with just 55.8 percent of the electorate casting their ballot on election day.[3]

Passos Coelho was asked, by the President of the Republic, to form a minority government that took the oath of office on October 30, 2015. The government fell after the approval of a motion to bring it down on 10 November. On 24 November, António Costa was appointed by the President of the Republic as Prime Minister-designate. Costa was sworn in on 26 November 2015.

## Background

[edit]

### 2011–2014 Portugal bailout management

[edit]

See also: Economic Adjustment Programme for Portugal

See also: 2011 Portuguese legislative election § 2013 political crisis

After the PSD/CDS–PP government was sworn in, a series of austerity policies, following the bailout deal, were enacted and created several backlash and protests.[5] In September 2012, further austerity policies led to one of the biggest demonstrations against a government in Portuguese democracy, with more than 1 million people going out to the streets across the country.[6] Because of this massive protest, the coalition government was deeply shaken and was forced to drop several policies.[7]

In the summer of 2013, another crisis in the coalition government emerged. The Finance Minister Vítor Gaspar resigned in late June 2013,[8] and Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho choose the Treasury Secretary, Maria Luís Albuquerque, to be the next Finance minister.[9] However, CDS – People's Party (CDS-PP) leader, Paulo Portas, criticized the choice of the new minister and announced his "irrevocable" resignation from the government.[10] Prime Minister Passos Coelho didn't accepted Portas's resignation and refused also to leave his office, opting, instead, to negotiate a new government organization with Portas.[11] A deal was reached a few days later, in which Portas would become deputy prime minister and with more powers on economic affairs.[12] But, President Aníbal Cavaco Silva refused to accept the deal and forced negotiations between PSD and PS, in which a deal between parties to maintain economic stability and snap elections in 2014 were on the table.[13] Despite the Presidential pressures, talks between PSD and PS fell apart and Cavaco Silva was forced to accept the PSD/CDS–PP original deal.[14]

The Social Democrats (PSD) suffered a considerable setback in the 2013 local elections by gathering just 31 percent of the votes and 106 mayors, a drop of 33 cities, while the Socialists (PS) obtained their best result till that date, 150 mayors, a gain of 18, and won almost 37 percent of the votes.[15] In May 2014, Portugal was successful in exiting the economic bailout that was negotiated in 2011.[16]

### Leadership changes and challenges

[edit]

#### Socialist Party

[edit]

Main article: 2011 Portuguese Socialist Party leadership election

After José Sócrates resignation from the party's leadership, due to the poor result of the Socialists in the 2011 elections,[17] a snap leadership election was called to elect a new leader for 22 and 23 July 2011.[18] There were two candidates on the ballot: António José Seguro and Francisco Assis.[19] Seguro was elected by a landslide and the results were the following:

Ballot: 22 and 23 July 2011  Candidate  | Votes  | %

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|

| António José Seguro | 23,903  | 68.0
| Francisco Assis | 11,257  | 32.0
Blank/Invalid ballots  | 367  | –
Turnout | 35,527 |
Source: Official results

Main article: 2014 Portuguese Socialist Party prime ministerial primary

The 2014 Portuguese Socialist Party prime ministerial primary was held on 28 September 2014. Following the party's disappointing result in the 2014 European elections, in which the PS got just 31 percent of the votes against the 28 percent of the PSD/CDS coalition, then Mayor of Lisbon António Costa called the results "tiny" (poucochinho), and challenged António José Seguro for the leadership.[20] It was the first open primary in the history of the party, and of Portugal, and elected the party's candidate for prime minister for the 2015 general election. In end, only two candidates ran: António José Seguro, General Secretary of the party at the time of the primary, and António Costa, mayor of Lisbon. António Costa won the primary by a landslide with 67.9 percent of the vote against the 31.7 percent of Antonio José Seguro, resulting in Seguro conceding defeat and resigning as General Secretary of the party. Thereafter, Costa was elected as the new Socialist General Secretary on 22 November 2014.[21] The results were the following:

Ballot: 28 September 2014  Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|

| António Costa | 120,188  | 67.8
| António José Seguro | 55,928  | 31.5
Blank/Invalid ballots  | 1,234  | 0.7
Turnout | 177,350 | 70.71
Source: Official Results

The start of António Costa's term as PS leader was, however, marred by the arrest of former Socialist Prime Minister José Sócrates on 21 November 2014, due to an inquiry which accused the former prime minister of crimes of tax fraud, money laundering and corruption.[22]

#### Left Bloc

[edit]

One year after the disappointing results of the party in the 2011 elections, the then Left Bloc leader, Francisco Louçã, decided to leave the leadership[23] and a party convention was held to elect a new leader. In November 2012, the party elected a dual leadership headed by João Semedo and Catarina Martins.[24]

Ballot: 30 November 2012  Candidate  | Votes  | %

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|

| João Semedo
Catarina Martins | 359  | 76.5
| João Madeira | 110  | 23.5
Turnout | 469 |
Source: Results

However, bad polling and election results, specially the 2014 European elections results, put pressure in the party's leadership,[25] and a new party convention, in 2014, showed a very divided party as the dual leadership of Semedo and Martins was reelected by a very slim margin. The results were the following:

Ballot: 23 November 2014  Candidate  | Votes  | %

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|

| João Semedo
Catarina Martins | 266  | 50.8
| Pedro Filipe Soares | 258  | 49.2
Turnout | 524 |
Source: Results

Just 7 days after the very close result in the party's convention, on 30 November 2014, João Semedo resigned as party coordinator and Catarina Martins became to sole party coordinator.[26]

### Date

[edit]

Official logo of the election.

According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the prime minister; however, the president must listen all the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announced at least 60 days before the election.[27] If an election is called in the middle of the legislature (Dissolution of Parliament) it must be held at least in 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. The next legislative election must, therefore, took place no later than 11 October 2015.[28] After meeting with all of the parties represented in parliament on 21 July 2015, the President Aníbal Cavaco Silva called the election for 4 October.[1]

### Electoral system

[edit]

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[29]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[30] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[31]

For these elections, and compared with the 2011 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:[32]

District | Number of MPs | Map

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|

Lisbon | 47  |

Porto | 39
Braga | 19
Setúbal(+1) | 18
Aveiro | 16
Leiria | 10
Coimbra, Faro, Viseu and Santarém(–1) | 9
Madeira and Viana do Castelo | 6
Azores and Vila Real | 5
Castelo Branco and Guarda | 4
Beja, Bragança, Évora | 3
Portalegre, Europe and Outside Europe | 2

## Parties

[edit]

### Parliamentary factions

[edit]

The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 12th legislature (2011–2015):

Name  | Ideology  | Political position  | Leader  | 2011 result

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|
|
|

%  | Seats
| PPD/PSD | Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata | Conservatism
Classical liberalism | Centre-right | Pedro Passos Coelho | 38.7%  |

108 / 230

| PS | Socialist Party
Partido Socialista | Social democracy
Progressivism | Centre-left | António Costa | 28.1%  |

74 / 230

| CDS-PP | CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular | Christian democracy
Conservatism | Centre-right
to right-wing | Paulo Portas | 11.7%  |

24 / 230

| PCP | Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português | Communism
Marxism–Leninism | Far-left | Jerónimo de Sousa |
7.9%
[e] |

14 / 230

| PEV | Ecologist Party "The Greens"
Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes" | Eco-socialism
Green politics | Left-wing | Heloísa Apolónia |

2 / 230

| BE | Left Bloc
Bloco de Esquerda | Democratic socialism
Anti-capitalism | Left-wing | Catarina Martins | 5.2%  |

8 / 230

### Contesting parties

[edit]

The parties and coalitions that contested seats to the Portuguese parliament, and their leaders, were:

Political party  | Leader  | Political spectrum  | Political groups of the European Parliament

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|
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Portugal Ahead (Portugal à Frente)
• Social Democratic Party (PSD)
• CDS – People's Party (CDS-PP) | Pedro Passos Coelho | Centre-right to
Right-wing | European People's Party Group (EPP)
Socialist Party (PS)  | António Costa | Centre-left | Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D)
Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU)
• Portuguese Communist Party (PCP)
• Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) | Jerónimo de Sousa | Left-wing | European United Left–Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL)
Left Bloc (BE)  | Catarina Martins | Left-wing | European United Left–Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL)
Portuguese Workers' Communist Party (PCTP-MRPP)  | António Garcia Pereira | Far-left | \-
Earth Party (MPT)  | José Inácio Faria | Centre-right | Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Group (ALDE/ADLE)
People-Animals-Nature (PAN)  | André Silva | Centre-left | \-
National Renovator Party (PNR)  | José Pinto Coelho | Far-right | \-
We, the Citizens! (NC)  | Mendo Castro Henriques  | Centre to
Centre-right[33] | \-
LIVRE/Tempo de Avançar (L/TDA)  | Rui Tavares | Centre-left to Left-wing | \-
Democratic Republican Party (PDR)  | António Marinho e Pinto | Centre | Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Group (ALDE/ADLE)
ACT! (AGIR)
• Portuguese Labour Party (PTP)
• Socialist Alternative Movement (MAS) | Joana Amaral Dias | Centre-left to Far-left | \-
People's Monarchist Party (PPM)  | Paulo Estevão  | Right-wing | \-
Christian Democratic and Citizenship (CDC/PPV)  | Tânia Avillez  | Right-wing | \-
United Party of Retirees and Pensioners (PURP)  | António Mateus Dias  | Big tent | \-
Together for the People (JPP)  | Filipe Sousa | Centre | \-

## Campaign period

[edit]

### Party slogans

[edit]

Party or alliance  | Original slogan  | English translation  | Refs

|
|
|

| PàF | « Agora Portugal pode mais »  | "Now Portugal can do more"  | [34]
| PS | « É tempo de confiança »  | "It's time for trust"  | [35]
| CDU | « Soluções para um Portugal com futuro »  | "Solutions for a Portugal with a future"  | [36]
| BE | « Faz a diferença. Gente de verdade »  | "Make a difference. Real people"  | [37]
| PAN | « A causa de todos »  | "The cause of all"  | [38]

### Candidates' debates

[edit]

After changes in the electoral law that obligated that all of the parties contesting an election should be represented in debates, the 3 main TV networks RTP, SIC and TVI proposed 3 debates between the two main candidates António Costa and Pedro Passos Coelho and also a series of head-to-head debates between various party leaders and one debate with all party leaders.[39] After meetings with the various parties, it was decided to hold two face-to-face debates between António Costa and Pedro Passos Coelho in which one would be broadcast on television and the other on radio. There was also going to be a debate between all the parties represented in Parliament but it was cancelled by the refusal of the PSD/CDS-PP coalition to have only the leader of the PSD on the debate and not also the leader of the CDS-PP, Paulo Portas[40][41]

Completed televised debates:

Portuguese legislative election debates, 2015

N°. | Date  | Broadcaster | Moderator(s) | Invitees | Notes
Name  Invited Participant.    N  Non-invitee.   |  |  |  |
|  |  |
1  | 1 September  | RTP Informação | Vítor Gonçalves  | N | N | Jerónimo | Martins |
2  | 8 September  | SIC Notícias | Ana Lourenço  | Portas | N | N | Martins |
3  | 9 September  | RTP1
SIC
TVI | Judite de Sousa
Clara de Sousa
João Adelino Faria  | P. Coelho | Costa | N | N | Broadcast simultaneously on the 3 major TV networks.
4  | 11 September  | RTP Informação | Vítor Gonçalves  | P. Coelho | N | N | Martins |
5  | 14 September  | TVI24 | Pedro Pinto  | N | Costa | N | Martins |
6  | 16 September  | SIC Notícias | Ana Lourenço  | N | Costa | Jerónimo | N |
7  | 17 September  | Antena 1

TSF | Graça Franco
Maria Flor Pedroso
Paulo Baldaia  | P. Coelho | Costa | N | N | Broadcast simultaneously on 3 national radio stations.
8  | 18 September  | TVI24 | José Alberto Carvalho  | Portas | N | Apolónia | N |
Candidate viewed as "most convincing" in each debate
Debate | Poll source |  |  |  |  | Notes
|  |  |
3  | 9 September  | RTP1/SIC/TVI | Aximage | 35.7 | 48.0 |  | 16.3% said it was a tie.
Eurosondagem | 31.8 | 40.0 | 28.2% said neither won or it was a tie.
7  | 17 September  | Antena 1/RR/TSF | Marktest | 42.5 | 29.5 | 14.2% said neither won and 13.8% were undecided.

## Opinion polling

[edit]

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2015 Portuguese legislative election

This graph was using the legacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to the new Chart extension.

|

## Voter turnout

[edit]

The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day including voters from Overseas.

Turnout  | Time

|

12:00  | 16:00  | 19:00
2011  | 2015  | ±  | 2011  | 2015  | ±  | 2011  | 2015  | ±
Total | 20.01%  | 20.65% |  0.64 pp | 41.98%  | 44.38% |  2.40 pp | 58.03%  | 55.84% |  2.19 pp
Sources[42][43]

## Results

[edit]

The results display a relative victory of the right-wing coalition, but they also display a combined victory of the left-wing parties (including the Socialist Party), with a hung parliament (a right-wing single winner and a left-wing majority parliament).[44][45]

### National summary

[edit]

For detailed results by constituency, see Results breakdown of the 2015 Portuguese legislative election.

Summary of the 4 October 2015 Assembly of the Republic elections results

Parties | Votes  | %  | ±pp swing | MPs
2011 | 2015  | ±  | %  | ±
| Portugal Ahead (PSD/CDS–PP)[f] | 1,993,504 | 36.86 | 10.9 | 124 | 102 | 22 | 44.35 | 10.5
| Socialist | 1,747,730 | 32.32 | 4.3 | 74 | 86 | 12 | 37.39 | 5.2
| Left Bloc | 550,945 | 10.19 | 5.0 | 8 | 19 | 11 | 8.26 | 4.8
| Unitary Democratic Coalition | 445,901 | 8.25 | 0.4 | 16 | 17 | 1 | 7.39 | 0.4
| Social Democratic[g] | 80,841 | 1.49 | — | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2.17 | 0.9
| People-Animals-Nature | 75,170 | 1.39 | 0.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.4
| Democratic Republican | 61,920 | 1.13 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | —
| Portuguese Workers' Communist | 60,045 | 1.11 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0
| LIVRE/Time to move forward | 39,330 | 0.73 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | —
| National Renovator | 27,286 | 0.50 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0
| Earth | 22,627 | 0.42 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0
| We, the Citizens! | 21,382 | 0.40 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | —
| ACT! (Labour/Socialist Alternative) | 20,793 | 0.38 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | —
| People's Monarchist | 14,916 | 0.28 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0
| Together for the People | 14,275 | 0.26 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | —
| United Party of Retirees and Pensioners | 13,899 | 0.26 | — | — | 0 | — | 0.00 | —
| People's[h] | 7,496 | 0.14 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.4
| Alliance Azores (CDS–PP/PPM)[i] | 3,624 | 0.07 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0
| Citizenship and Christian Democracy | 2,685 | 0.05 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0
| Labour[j] | 1,744 | 0.03 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.0
Total valid | 5,206,113 | 96.27 | 0.4 | 230 | 230 | 0 | 100.00 | 0.0
Blank ballots  | 112,955 | 2.09 | 0.6 |
Invalid ballots  | 89,024 | 1.65 | 0.3
Total | 5,408,092 | 100.00 |
Registered voters/turnout  | 9,684,922 | 55.84 | 2.2
Source: Diário da República - Resultados Oficias

| Vote share

|  |
PàF |

| 36.86%
PS |

| 32.32%
BE |

| 10.19%
CDU |

| 8.25%
PSD |

| 1.49%
PAN |

| 1.39%
PDR |

| 1.13%
PCTP/MRPP |

| 1.11%
L/TDA |

| 0.73%
PNR |

| 0.50%
Others |

| 2.29%
Blank/Invalid |

| 3.74%

| Parliamentary seats

|  |
PàF |

| 44.35%
PS |

| 37.39%
BE |

| 8.26%
CDU |

| 7.39%
PSD |

| 2.17%
PAN |

| 0.43%

### Distribution by constituency

[edit]

Results of the 2015 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency  Constituency | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S  | Total

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

PàF | PS | BE | CDU | PSD | PAN
Azores |  | 40.3  | 3 | 7.8  | \-  | 2.5  | \-  | 36.1  | 2 | 0.9  | \-  | 5
Aveiro | 48.1  | 10 | 27.9  | 5 | 9.6  | 1 | 4.4  | \-  |  | 1.0  | \-  | 16
Beja | 20.1  | 1 | 37.3  | 1 | 8.2  | \-  | 25.0  | 1 | 0.8  | \-  | 3
Braga | 45.6  | 10 | 30.9  | 7 | 8.8  | 1 | 5.2  | 1 | 0.8  | \-  | 19
Bragança | 49.4  | 2 | 34.1  | 1 | 5.5  | \-  | 3.1  | \-  | 0.6  | \-  | 3
Castelo Branco | 35.3  | 2 | 38.9  | 2 | 10.0  | \-  | 6.0  | \-  | 0.8  | \-  | 4
Coimbra | 37.2  | 4 | 35.3  | 4 | 9.9  | 1 | 7.0  | \-  | 1.0  | \-  | 9
Évora | 23.9  | 1 | 37.5  | 1 | 8.6  | \-  | 21.9  | 1 | 0.9  | \-  | 3
Faro | 31.5  | 3 | 32.8  | 4 | 14.1  | 1 | 8.7  | 1 | 2.0  | \-  | 9
Guarda | 45.6  | 2 | 33.8  | 2 | 7.4  | \-  | 4.0  | \-  | 0.9  | \-  | 4
Leiria | 48.4  | 6 | 24.8  | 3 | 9.7  | 1 | 5.1  | \-  | 1.2  | \-  | 10
Lisbon | 34.7  | 18 | 33.5  | 18 | 10.9  | 5 | 9.8  | 5 | 2.0  | 1 | 47
Madeira |  | 20.9  | 2 | 10.7  | 1 | 3.6  | \-  | 37.8  | 3 | 1.8  | \-  | 6
Portalegre | 27.6  | 1 | 42.4  | 1 | 9.2  | \-  | 12.2  | \-  |  | 0.8  | \-  | 2
Porto | 39.6  | 17 | 32.7  | 14 | 11.1  | 5 | 6.8  | 3 | 1.6  | \-  | 39
Santarém | 35.8  | 4 | 32.9  | 3 | 10.8  | 1 | 9.6  | 1 | 1.2  | \-  | 9
Setúbal | 22.6  | 5 | 34.3  | 7 | 13.1  | 2 | 18.8  | 4 | 1.9  | \-  | 18
Viana do Castelo | 45.5  | 4 | 29.8  | 2 | 8.0  | \-  | 5.2  | \-  | 0.9  | \-  | 6
Vila Real | 51.0  | 3 | 33.1  | 2 | 5.2  | \-  | 3.0  | \-  | 0.6  | \-  | 5
Viseu | 51.1  | 6 | 29.7  | 3 | 6.7  | \-  | 3.5  | \-  | 0.7  | \-  | 9
Europe  | 39.1  | 1 | 29.9  | 1 | 5.8  | \-  | 5.9  | \-  | 0.9  | \-  | 2
Outside Europe  | 48.5  | 2 | 10.8  | \-  | 1.6  | \-  | 1.5  | \-  | 1.8  | \-  | 2
Total | 36.9 | 102 | 32.3 | 86 | 10.2 | 19 | 8.3 | 17 | 1.5 | 5 | 1.4 | 1 | 230
Source: Legislativas 2015

### Maps

[edit]

* Winner and seats by constituency.

* Most voted political force by municipality.

* Percentage of votes for the left-wing parties represented in the Parliament, by district or autonomous region.

* Most voted-for political fields by district/autonomous regions: Left: PS, BE, CDU; Right: PàF.

## Aftermath

[edit]

### Government formation

[edit]

Despite Costa's statements during election night, the Socialists, the Left Bloc, the Communists and the Greens started negotiations to form a left-wing majority coalition government.[46][47] On 19 October 2015, the Secretary-General of the Socialist Party, António Costa, rejected the proposal for a post-election coalition government with the right-wing alliance PàF.[48] On the next day, Costa said that the Socialist Party would reject in Parliament any government that would be led by Pedro Passos Coelho and supported by the right-wing coalition Portugal Ahead. During the same day, António Costa guaranteed to President Aníbal Cavaco Silva that the Socialist Party had the conditions to form a government, supported in the parliament by the Left Bloc and the Communist Party.[49] After being consulted by the President, the Socialist Party, the Left Bloc, the Communist Party and the Greens expressed their intention to support a government of the Socialist Party, led by António Costa.

Among the most likely scenarios that were considered for a new government were:[50][51]

* A right-wing (PàF) minority government without the support of the Socialists (without majority support from the new parliament; rejected by Costa);
* A right-wing (PàF) minority government with the parliamentary support of the Socialists (rejected by Costa);
* A grand coalition government including the right-wing coalition (PàF) and the Socialists (rejected by Costa);
* A minority government of the Socialist Party with the parliamentary support of the Left Bloc and the Communists (most likely);
* A left-wing coalition government including the Socialists, the Left Bloc and the Communists;
* A caretaker government, until new elections are held, if the parties fail to reach an agreement.

On 22 October, President Aníbal Cavaco Silva controversially designated Pedro Passos Coelho to form a new government,[52] which after taking the oath of office had 10 days to submit its programme in Parliament. But the PS, BE and CDU had already stated that they would call a motion of rejection to bring down the government.[53]

On 23 October, the new Assembly of the Republic was opened. Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, a Socialist, was elected as President of the Assembly with the support of the Socialists, the Communists, the Left Bloc and the Greens. He received 120 votes against 108 votes for the government's candidate.[54]

The members of the second Passos Coelho government took the oath of office on 30 October.[55][56] The government programme was scheduled to be voted by the Parliament on 10 November.[57]

### Fall of the government and appointment of a new one

[edit]

Just before the parliamentary debate and vote on the government's programme, the Socialist Party reached agreements with the three other left-wing parties: the Left Bloc, the Communists and the Greens. Those agreements were eventually approved by the national organs of the Socialist Party on 8 November.[58][59] On 10 November, the Portugal Ahead government programme was rejected by Parliament after a motion of rejection was approved by a vote of 123 to 107 MPs, bringing down the government itself:[60]

Motion of Rejection
Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD)

Ballot →  | 10 November 2015
Required majority →  | 116 out of 230

* • PSD (89)
* • CDS–PP (18)

107 / 230

Yes

* • PS (86)
* • BE (19)
* • PCP (15)
* • PEV (2)
* • PAN (1)

123 / 230

| Abstentions  |

0 / 230

| Absentees  |

0 / 230

Result →  | Approved Y
Sources[61]

Fourteen days later, on 24 November, President Aníbal Cavaco Silva appointed António Costa, Socialist Party leader, as Prime Minister[62] and a new government was sworn in, on 26 November, as a Socialist Party minority government with the confidence and supply of the Left Bloc, the Communist Party and the Ecologist Party "The Greens".[63]

## See also

[edit]

* Elections in Portugal
* List of political parties in Portugal
* Politics of Portugal

## Notes

[edit]

1. ^ As leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD). The leader of the People's Party (CDS–PP) is the deputy prime minister Paulo Portas.
2. ^ In the 2011 election, Pedro Passos Coelho was elected in the district of Vila Real.
3. ^ Sum of votes and seats of the PSD and the CDS–PP in the 2011 election. PSD: 38.7%, 108 seats; CDS–PP: 11.7%, 24 seats.
4. ^ Following the election, Pedro Passos Coelho was first designated as Prime Minister by the President of the Republic with a PSD/CDS-PP minority government. He took the oath of office for his second term on October 30, 2015. On 10 November 2015, Coelho's government was defeated in a motion of no confidence vote, 123 against 107, prompting the fall of his government. The President of the Republic, Aníbal Cavaco Silva, then invited PS leader António Costa to form a minority government with the support of BE and CDU. Costa's minority government was sworn in on 26 November 2015.
5. ^ The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 2011 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 7.9% of the vote and elected 16 MPs to parliament.
6. ^ Electoral lists only in continental Portugal.
7. ^ Electoral list only in Madeira and Azores.
8. ^ Electoral list only in Madeira.
9. ^ Electoral list only in Azores.
10. ^ Electoral list only in Madeira.

## References

[edit]

1. ^ a b "Cavaco Silva marca eleições legislativas para dia 4 de outubro" (in Portuguese). 22 July 2015. Retrieved 22 July 2015.
2. ^ "António Costa recusa coligação negativa e só viabiliza políticas do PS" (in Portuguese). 4 October 2015. Retrieved 5 October 2015.
3. ^ a b "As cores finais do país que votou" (in Portuguese). 15 October 2015. Retrieved 26 November 2015.
4. ^ "PAN elege um deputado. Livre e PDR falham" (in Portuguese). 5 October 2015. Retrieved 26 November 2015.
5. ^ "Contra a austeridade, protestos na cidade". Público (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 27 November 2011. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
6. ^ "Manifestação de 15 de setembro terá sido a maior desde o 25 de abril". Dinheiro Vivo (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 15 September 2012. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
7. ^ "Portugal após o recuo do Governo na TSU". Público (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 23 September 2012. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
8. ^ "Vítor Gaspar sai e queixa-se de falta de coesão do Governo". Público (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 1 July 2013. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
9. ^ "Maria Luís Albuquerque é a nova ministra das Finanças". RTP (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 1 July 2013. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
10. ^ "Paulo Portas afirma que a decisão de se demitir é irrevogável". RTP (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 2 July 2013. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
11. ^ "Passos não se demite, nem aceitou ainda a demissão de Portas". Público (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 3 July 2013. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
12. ^ "Portas é vice-primeiro-ministro com coordenação económica, troika e reforma do Estado". Público (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 6 July 2013. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
13. ^ "Cavaco quer conclusão das negociações entre partidos "num prazo muito curto" (act)". Jornal de Negócios (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 12 July 2013. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
14. ^ "Cavaco aceita Governo remodelado com Portas em vice-primeiro-ministro". RTP (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 23 July 2013. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
15. ^ "Passos Coelho assume derrota". Jornal de Notícias (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 29 September 2013. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
16. ^ "PM anuncia hoje modelo de saída do resgate financeiro". Diário de Notícias (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 4 May 2014. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
17. ^ "Sócrates demite-se de líder do PS e recusa novo cargo político", Público, 5 June 2011. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
18. ^ "Diretas no PS marcadas para 22 e 23 de julho ", RTP, 8 July 2011. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
19. ^ "António José Seguro votou "tranquilo" e "muito confiante" nos resultados das directas do PS ", SIC Notícias, 22 July 2011. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
20. ^ "Costa diz que não basta ganhar por poucochinho", Diário de Notícias, 12 July 2014. Retrieved 8 December 2022.
21. ^ "António Costa eleito secretário-geral do PS com 96% dos votos", Jornal de Negócios, 23 November 2014. Retrieved 18 December 2014.
22. ^ "Sócrates detido no aeroporto com base em "comunicação bancária"", Público, 22 November 2014. Retrieved 13 September 2024.
23. ^ "Francisco Louçã abandona liderança do Bloco de Esquerda", Jornal de Negócios, 18 August 2012. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
24. ^ "João Semedo e Catarina Martins eleitos líderes do Bloco", Público, 11 November 2012. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
25. ^ "BE: Rosas critica ‘rotura sem princípio’, Fazenda recusa ‘anátema’ de divisionista", Sol, 22 November 2014. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
26. ^ "João Semedo deixa liderança do Bloco de Esquerda e Catarina Martins passa a porta-voz", Jornal de Notícias, 30 November 2014. Retrieved 11 November 2021.
27. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2014-10-22. Retrieved 2015-10-07.`{{cite web}}`: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
28. ^ Electoral law to the Assembly of the Republic
29. ^ "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-03. Retrieved 2020-05-30.
30. ^ "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
31. ^ Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
32. ^ ""Mapa Oficial n.º 2-A/2015"" (PDF). CNE - Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Diário da República, 1.ª série—N.º 154—10 de agosto de 2015. Retrieved 3 January 2020.
33. ^ "Nós, Cidadãos! é o novo partido de centro-direita". 20 February 2014.
34. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2015 – PAF". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
35. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2015 – PS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
36. ^ "CDU Legislativas 2015". CDU (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
37. ^ "#Legislativas2015: Materiais de campanha do Bloco". BE (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
38. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2015 – PAN". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
39. ^ "Televisões propõem frente a frentes cruzados com todos os líderes partidários" (in Portuguese). 24 July 2015. Retrieved 24 July 2015.
40. ^ "Debates entre 9 e 22 de setembro. Portas fica de fora" (in Portuguese). 4 August 2015. Retrieved 4 August 2015.
41. ^ "Generalistas cancelam debate final referente às legislativas" (in Portuguese). 23 August 2015. Retrieved 24 August 2015.
42. ^ "Legislativas 2015 - Afluência". eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2015/index.html (in Portuguese). Ministry of Internal Administration. Retrieved 8 June 2023.
43. ^ "Legislativas 2011 - Afluência". eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2011/index.html (in Portuguese). Ministry of Internal Administration. Retrieved 8 June 2023.
44. ^ "Portugal election: centre-right coalition retains power but could lose majority". The Guardian. 5 October 2015. Retrieved 5 October 2015.
45. ^ "Loss of majority in Portuguese election a headache for coalition". The Irish Times. 5 October 2015. Retrieved 5 October 2015.
46. ^ "Esquerda disponível para formar Governo com PS (Left-wing parties available to form government with the Socialist Party)" (in Portuguese). RTP. 7 October 2015. Retrieved 11 October 2015.
47. ^ "PS desafia Bloco e PCP a clarificarem condições para formação de Governo (Socialist Party challenges the Left Bloc and the Communist Party to clarify their conditions for the formation of the government)" (in Portuguese). RTP. 7 October 2015. Retrieved 11 October 2015.
48. ^ "Costa recusa bloco central alargado (Costa refuses extended Central Block)" (in Portuguese). Diário Económico. 19 October 2015. Archived from the original on 20 October 2015. Retrieved 19 October 2015.
49. ^ "Costa desafia Cavaco a indigitá-lo primeiro-ministro (Costa defies Cavaco to appoint him Prime Minister". Diário Económico. 20 October 2015. Archived from the original on 21 October 2015. Retrieved 22 October 2015.
50. ^ "Que mais nos irá acontecer? Cenários de governo e ingovernabilidade (What else will happen to us? Scenarios of government and ungovernability)" (in Portuguese). Expresso. 14 October 2015. Retrieved 19 October 2015.
51. ^ "Novo governo: os cenários que poderão colocar-se ao Presidente (New government: The scenarios that the President may face)" (in Portuguese). Jornal de Negócios. 12 October 2015. Archived from the original on 16 October 2015. Retrieved 19 October 2015.
52. ^ "Coelho invited to stay as Portugal PM". BBC News. 2015-10-22. Retrieved 2017-12-15.
53. ^ "PS prepara moção de rejeição ao programa da coligação PSD/CDS-PP" (in Portuguese). SIC Notícias. 23 October 2015. Retrieved 23 October 2015.
54. ^ "Portugal parliament elects Socialist speaker with support of left". Yahoo. 23 October 2015. Archived from the original on 2015-10-29. Retrieved 2017-12-15.
55. ^ "Passos já tomou posse" (in Portuguese). Expresso. 30 October 2015. Retrieved 9 November 2015.
56. ^ "Cavaco pede ao Governo "esforço de diálogo" com outras forças partidárias" (in Portuguese). Expresso. 30 October 2015. Retrieved 9 November 2015.
57. ^ "Programa de Governo discutido dias 9 e 10" (in Portuguese). Expresso. 28 October 2015. Retrieved 9 November 2015.
58. ^ "António Costa anuncia que acordo à esquerda está fechado" (in Portuguese). TVI24. 8 November 2015. Retrieved 9 November 2015.
59. ^ "PS mandata Costa para formalizar acordo à esquerda e rejeitar Governo" (in Portuguese). Expresso. 9 November 2015. Retrieved 9 November 2015.
60. ^ Angelique Chrisafis (10 November 2015). "Portuguese MPs force minority government to quit over austerity". The Guardian. Retrieved 4 December 2015.
61. ^ "Moção de rejeição aprovada. Cai o Governo". Radio Renascença (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 10 November 2015. Retrieved 30 May 2022.
62. ^ "Cavaco nomeia Costa como primeiro-ministro". Público. 24 November 2015. Retrieved 11 June 2025.
63. ^ "Às 16h02... António Costa tomou posse como primeiro-ministro". Expresso. 26 November 2015. Retrieved 20 December 2022.

## External links

[edit]

* Popstar Poll Tracker
* Marktest Opinion Poll Tracker
* Official results site, Portuguese Internal Administration Ministry
* Portuguese Electoral Commission
* ERC - Official publication of polls
* NSD: European Election Database - Portugal Archived 2014-12-20 at the Wayback Machine publishes regional level election data; allows for comparisons of election results, 1991-2011

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