2016 Montana gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2016 United States gubernatorial elections.

2016 Montana gubernatorial election

* * *

| <- 2012 | November 8, 2016 | 2020 ->

|
|

Turnout| 74.44%2.26[1]
|  |  |

|
|

Nominee  | Steve Bullock | Greg Gianforte |
Party  | Democratic | Republican
Running mate  | Mike Cooney | Lesley Robinson
Popular vote  | 255,933 | 236,115
Percentage  | 50.25% | 46.35%

* * *

County results

Precinct results

Bullock: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
Gianforte: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
No votes

* * *

| Governor before election

Steve Bullock
Democratic

| Elected Governor

Steve Bullock
Democratic

|

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* v
* t
* e

The 2016 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Montana, concurrently with the presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic governor Steve Bullock won re-election to a second term in office with 50.3% of the vote, defeating Republican Greg Gianforte, who later won Montana's governorship in 2020 when Bullock was term-limited.

Steve Bullock's campaigning focused on jobs and the eceonomiy. On his campaign webiste he claims to fight "for Montana’s middle-class families every day. He spent the last four years working to create more good-paying jobs, increase wages, and keep more money in Montanans pockets."[2]

Greg Gianforte's campaigning focused on similar issues surrounding jobs and ecenomoy of Montana, he claims to "create opportunities for high wage jobs, cut government regulations, ensure our kids learn the skills for today's economy, and make state government work better for you."

In the concurrent presidential election, Hillary Clinton lost Montana by more than 20%, with Bullock thus over-performing her vote share by more than 14% and her margin of defeat by more than 24%.

As of 2024 this is the most recent election where a Democrat won the Governor's office and/or state level office.

## Democratic primary

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Nominee

[edit]

* Steve Bullock, incumbent governor

* Running mate: Mike Cooney, incumbent lieutenant governor[3]

#### Eliminated in primary

[edit]

* Bill McChesney, former state representative[4]

* Running mate: Mike Anderson

### Results

[edit]

Democratic primary results  Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Democratic | Steve Bullock (incumbent)  | 109,450  | 91.3%
| Democratic | Bill McChesney  | 10,486  | 8.7%
Total votes  | 119,936  | 100.0%

## Republican primary

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Nominee

[edit]

* Greg Gianforte, founder of RightNow Technologies and conservative activist[5][6][7]

* Running mate: Lesley Robinson, Phillips County Commissioner

#### Eliminated in primary

[edit]

* Terry Nelson, planning administrator for Ravalli County, Montana[8]

* Running mate: Niki Sardot

#### Withdrawn

[edit]

* Brad Johnson, chairman of the Montana Public Service Commission and former secretary of state of Montana[9]
* Mark Perea, businessman and nominee for the state senate in 2012[10] (did not file)

#### Declined

[edit]

* Taylor Brown, state senator[11]
* Jeff Essman, state representative and former president of the State Senate[12]
* Tim Fox, Attorney General of Montana (running for re-election)[5]
* Ryan Zinke, U.S. representative (running for re-election)[5]

### Endorsements

[edit]

Greg Gianforte

U.S. senators

* Conrad Burns, former U.S. senator[13]
* Steve Daines, U.S. senator[14]

State officials

* Tim Fox, Attorney General of Montana[15]
* Rick Hill, former U.S. representative and 2012 GOP gubernatorial nominee[13]
* Ron Marlenee, former U.S. representative[13]
* Judy Martz, former governor of Montana[15]
* Marc Racicot, former governor of Montana[15]
* Denny Rehberg, former U.S. representative[13]
* Stan Stephens, former governor of Montana[15]
* Ryan Zinke, U.S. representative[14]

Organizations

* Montana Chamber of Commerce[16]
* Montana Farm Bureau Federation[17]
* National Federation of Independent Business[18]

### Results

[edit]

Republican primary results  Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Republican | Greg Gianforte  | 109,882  | 76.4%
| Republican | Terry Nelson  | 33,987  | 23.6%
Total votes  | 143,869  | 100.0%

## Third parties

[edit]

### Independent

[edit]

#### Declared

[edit]

* Christopher Zarcone[10]

### Libertarian

[edit]

#### Declared

[edit]

* Ted Dunlap, perennial candidate[19]

* Running mate: Ron Vandevender, perennial candidate

#### Withdrew

[edit]

* Ron Vandevender, perennial candidate[10]

## General election

[edit]

### Debates

[edit]

* Complete video of debate, September 19, 2016 - C-SPAN

### Endorsements

[edit]

Greg Gianforte

Governors

* Marc Racicot, Montana (former)[20]
* Judy Martz, Montana (former)[20]

State officials

* Tim Fox, Montana Attorney General[20]

U.S. senators

* Steve Daines, Montana[20]
* Conrad Burns, Montana (former) (deceased)[20]

U.S. representatives

* Rick Hill, Montana's at-large congressional district (former)[20]
* Ron Marlenee, Montana's 2nd congressional district (former)[20]
* Denny Rehberg, Montana's at-large congressional district (former)[20]
* Ryan Zinke, Montana's at-large congressional district[20]

Organizations

* Gun Owners of America[20]
* Montana Chamber of Commerce[20]
* Montana Farm Bureau Federation PAC[20]
* National Federation of Independent Business[20]
* National Rifle Association of America[20]
* Susan B. Anthony List[20]

### Predictions

[edit]

Source  | Ranking  | As of

|
|

The Cook Political Report[21] | Lean D  | August 12, 2016
Daily Kos[22] | Lean D  | November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[23] | Lean D  | November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] | Lean D  | November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[25] | Lean D  | November 1, 2016
Governing[26] | Tossup  | October 27, 2016

### Polling

[edit]

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size  | Margin of
error  | Steve
Bullock (D)  | Greg
Gianforte (R)  | Ted
Dunlap (L)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

SurveyMonkey[27] | November 1–7, 2016  | 449  | ± 4.6%  | 44%  | 46% | 7%  | 3%
SurveyMonkey[28] | October 31–November 6, 2016  | 410  | ± 4.6%  | 45% | 44%  | 8%  | 3%
SurveyMonkey[29] | October 28–November 3, 2016  | 403  | ± 4.6%  | 46% | 46% | 7%  | 1%
SurveyMonkey[30] | October 27–November 2, 2016  | 376  | ± 4.6%  | 48% | 43%  | 7%  | 2%
SurveyMonkey[31] | October 26–November 1, 2016  | 385  | ± 4.6%  | 51% | 41%  | 7%  | 1%
SurveyMonkey[32] | October 25–31, 2016  | 405  | ± 4.6%  | 53% | 39%  | 7%  | 1%
Mason-Dixon[33] | October 10–12, 2016  | 1,003  | ± 3.2%  | 47% | 45%  | 2%  | 6%
Montana State University Billings[34] | October 3–10, 2016  | 590  | ± 4.0%  | 44% | 32%  | 3%  | 20%

Hypothetical polling

with Ryan Zinke

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size  | Margin of
error  | Steve
Bullock (D)  | Ryan
Zinke (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Gravis Marketing[35] | February 24–25, 2015  | 1,035  | ± 3%  | 44% | 44% | —  | 11%
Gravis Marketing[35] | November 24–25, 2014  | 836  | ± 3%  | 41%  | 49% | —  | 10%

with Tim Fox

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size  | Margin of
error  | Steve
Bullock (D)  | Tim
Fox (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Gravis Marketing[35] | February 24–25, 2015  | 1,035  | ± 3%  | 46% | 38%  | —  | 16%
Gravis Marketing[35] | November 24–25, 2014  | 836  | ± 3%  | 41%  | 45% | —  | 14%
Public Policy Polling[36] | July 20–22, 2013  | 741  | ± 4%  | 46% | 43%  | —  | 11%

### Results

[edit]

2016 Montana gubernatorial election[37] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %  | ±%

|
|
|
|

| Democratic | Steve Bullock (incumbent)  | 255,933  | 50.25%  | +1.35%
| Republican | Greg Gianforte | 236,115  | 46.35%  | −0.99%
| Libertarian | Ted Dunlap  | 17,312  | 3.40%  | −0.36%
Total votes  | 509,360  | 100.00%  | N/A
| Democratic hold

## References

[edit]

1. ^ "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. February 22, 2018. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
2. ^ "Meet Steve". Steve Bullock for U.S. Senate. Retrieved December 12, 2024.
3. ^ Dennison, Mike (March 1, 2016). "Bullock files for re-election for governor". KTVQ. Archived from the original on March 2, 2016. Retrieved March 2, 2016.
4. ^ "Former legislator steps into Democratic governor's race". Independent Record. March 12, 2016. Retrieved March 12, 2016.[permanent dead link‍]
5. ^ a b c "AG Tim Fox files paperwork for re-election in 2016". The Bozeman Daily Chronicle. November 13, 2014. Retrieved November 15, 2014.
6. ^ McCumber, David (August 17, 2015). "Gianforte files exploratory papers for governor". The Montana Standard. Retrieved August 18, 2015.
7. ^ Calvin, Bobby (January 20, 2016). "Gianforte officially launches campaign for Montana governor". The Missoulian. Retrieved January 20, 2016.
8. ^ Bragg, Dennis. "Nelson jumps into Montana gubernatorial race". Archived from the original on March 6, 2017. Retrieved March 6, 2017.
9. ^ "Brad Johnson drops out of race for Montana governor". Billings Gazette. January 27, 2016. Retrieved January 28, 2016.
10. ^ a b c Carter, Troy (February 1, 2015). "First contestant enters GOP gubernatorial field". Bozeman Daily Chronicle. Archived from the original on February 5, 2015. Retrieved February 3, 2015.
11. ^ Flint, Aaron (January 26, 2015). "Report: Taylor Brown Doesn't Rule Out Run for Governor". Northern Broadcasting System. Archived from the original on April 2, 2015. Retrieved March 7, 2015.
12. ^ Jacobson, Louis (January 23, 2015). "Democrats Have More Seats to Defend in 2015-2016 Governors Races". Governing. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
13. ^ a b c d "Former US Senator Conrad Burns, Former US Reps Rehberg, Hill, and Marlenee Endorse Gianforte-Robinson Ticket". Greg Gianforte for Montana. April 12, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
14. ^ a b "Daines, Zinke Endorse Greg Gianforte, Lesley Robinson For Gov., Lt. Gov. Of Montana". Fairfield Sun Times. April 5, 2016.[permanent dead link‍]
15. ^ a b c d "Montana Attorney General Tim Fox, Former Governors Endorse Gianforte-Robinson Ticket". Greg Gianforte for Montana. April 11, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
16. ^ "GIANFORTE/ROBINSON LAND ENDORSEMENT FROM MONTANA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE". National Federation of Independent Business. June 17, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
17. ^ "Gianforte-Robinson Land Important Endorsement in 2016 Election, AG is Montana's Number One Industry". Greg Gianforte for Montana. April 21, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
18. ^ "NFIB Endorses Greg Gianforte for Governor". National Federation of Independent Business. August 16, 2016.
19. ^ Backus, Perry (March 20, 2016). "Libertarian from Conner running for governor". Independent Record. Retrieved August 11, 2016.
20. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o "Endorsements". gregformontana.com. Archived from the original on October 30, 2016. Retrieved October 30, 2016.
21. ^ "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
22. ^ "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.[permanent dead link‍]
23. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Archived from the original on June 12, 2017. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
24. ^ "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
25. ^ "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
26. ^ "2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Archived from the original on October 27, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
27. ^ SurveyMonkey
28. ^ SurveyMonkey
29. ^ SurveyMonkey
30. ^ SurveyMonkey
31. ^ SurveyMonkey
32. ^ SurveyMonkey
33. ^ Mason-Dixon
34. ^ Montana State University Billings
35. ^ a b c d Gravis Marketing
36. ^ Public Policy Polling
37. ^ "2016 General Election" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 5, 2017.

## External links

[edit]

Official campaign websites (archived)

* Steve Bullock (D) for Governor
* Greg Gianforte (R) for Governor
* Ron Vandevender (L) for Governor

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