2016 Ohio Republican presidential primary

* * *

| <- 2012 | March 15, 2016 (2016-03-15) | 2020 ->

|
|

<- NC

AS ->

|  |  |  |

|
|
|

Candidate  | John Kasich | Donald Trump | Ted Cruz
Home state  | Ohio | New York | Texas
Delegate count  | 66 | 0  | 0
Popular vote  | 933,886 | 713,404  | 264,640
Percentage  | 46.95% | 35.87%  | 13.31%

* * *

Ohio results by county.

John Kasich

30-40%

40–50%

50–60%

60–70%

Donald Trump

30–40%

40–50%

50–60%

|

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The 2016 Ohio Republican presidential primary took place March 15 in the U.S. state of Ohio, as a part of the Republican Party's series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. The Ohio primary was held alongside Republican primary elections in Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, along with the Democratic contest in Ohio.

The primary was won by the state's then governor, John Kasich.

## Background

[edit]

In the 2012 Republican primary elections, the Ohio primary was a winner-take-most primary scheduled for March 6.[1] However, the state's winner, Mitt Romney, reached only 37% of the vote and thus won only 58% of the state's delegates. House Bill 153, signed by Governor Kasich, moved the primary to March 15 for the 2016 contest, in what would be dubbed a second Super Tuesday by several news networks.[2] In addition, in mid-September, Ohio's Republican Party decided to make the state's 66 delegates completely winner-take-all, in order to maximize the state's power on the nominating convention and to avoid a similar problem to what happened in 2012. This was also expected to help John Kasich, as the state's governor.[3]

## The state of the campaign

[edit]

### Previous contests

[edit]

Despite an early victory by Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump was seen as making steady progress towards the Republican nomination at the time. Trump was victorious in 7 of the contests on March 1, with Cruz seen as the only viable threat to Trump after victories in his home state of Texas and 3 other March 1 contests. Marco Rubio performed worse than anticipated on March 1, taking only Minnesota. On March 8, two primaries and a caucus were held in Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi. Despite a poll from American Research Group that showed Kasich leading Trump in Michigan, Trump won all three contests.[4][5]

### Run-up to the election

[edit]

Further information: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries § Ohio

Poll source  | Date  | 1st  | 2nd  | 3rd  | Other

|
|
|
|
|

Primary results | March 15, 2016  | John Kasich
46.95% | Donald Trump
35.87%  | Ted Cruz
13.31%  | Marco Rubio 2.34%, Ben Carson 0.72%, Jeb Bush 0.27%, Mike Huckabee 0.25%, Chris Christie 0.12%, Carly Fiorina 0.11%, Rick Santorum 0.07%
ARG[6]

Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 400

| March 12–13, 2016  | John Kasich
44% | Donald Trump
38%  | Ted Cruz
12%  | Marco Rubio 2%, Undecided 4%
Monmouth University[7]

Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 503

| March 11–13, 2016  | John Kasich
40% | Donald Trump
35%  | Ted Cruz
15%  | Marco Rubio 5%, Other 1%, Undecided 4%
Quinnipiac University[8]

Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 721

| March 8–13, 2016  | Donald Trump
38% | John Kasich
38% | Ted Cruz
16%  | Marco Rubio 3%, Undecided 4%
CBS News/YouGov[9]

Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 798

| March 9–11, 2016  | John Kasich
33% | Donald Trump
33% | Ted Cruz
27%  | Marco Rubio 5%, No Preference 2%
NBC News/WSJ/Marist[10]

Margin of error: ± 4.1% Sample size: 564

| March 4–10, 2016  | John Kasich
39% | Donald Trump
33%  | Ted Cruz
19%  | Marco Rubio 6%
Fox News[11]

Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 806

| March 5–8, 2016  | John Kasich
34% | Donald Trump
29%  | Ted Cruz
19%  | Marco Rubio 7%, Undecided 5%, Other 3%, None of the above 2%
Quinnipiac University[12]

Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 685

| March 2–7, 2016  | Donald Trump
38% | John Kasich
32%  | Ted Cruz
16%  | Marco Rubio 9%, Undecided 5%
Public Policy Polling[13]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 638

| March 4–6, 2016  | Donald Trump
38% | John Kasich
35% | Ted Cruz
15%  | Marco Rubio 5%, Undecided 5%
CNN/ORC[14]

Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 359

| March 2–6, 2016  | Donald Trump
41% | John Kasich
35%  | Ted Cruz
15%  | Marco Rubio 7%
Quinnipiac University[15]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: 759

| February 16–20, 2016  | Donald Trump
31% | John Kasich
26%  | Ted Cruz
21%  | Marco Rubio 13%, Ben Carson 5%, Someone else 0%, DK/NA 5%
Baldwin Wallace University[16]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 440

| February 11–20, 2016  | Donald Trump
31% | John Kasich
29% | Ted Cruz
11%  | Marco Rubio 10%, Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 3%, Don't Know 8%
Quinnipiac University[17]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 433

| September 25 – October 5, 2015  | Donald Trump
23% | Ben Carson
18%  | John Kasich
13%  | Ted Cruz 11%, Carly Fiorina 10%, Marco Rubio 7%, Jeb Bush 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 0%, Would not vote 2%, DK/NA 6%
Quinnipiac University[18]

Margin of error: ± 5.1%
Sample size: 371

| August 7–18, 2015  | John Kasich
27% | Donald Trump
21%  | Ted Cruz
7%  | Marco Rubio 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Scott Walker 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Rick Perry 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Don't know 11%
Quinnipiac University[19]

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 413

| June 4–15, 2015  | John Kasich
19% | Jeb Bush
9%  | Scott Walker
8%  | Marco Rubio 7%, Rand Paul 7%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Rick Perry 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Donald Trump 1%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1%, Don't know 17%
Public Policy Polling[20]

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 411

| June 4–7, 2015  | John Kasich
19% | Ben Carson
13%  | Scott Walker
13%  | Jeb Bush 12%, Marco Rubio 12%, Rand Paul 9%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Someone Else/Not Sure 8%
Quinnipiac University Archived April 4, 2015, at the Wayback Machine

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 404

| March 17–28, 2015  | John Kasich
20% | Ted Cruz
9%  | Mike Huckbee
9%  | Scott Walker 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ben Carson 8%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1% Undecided 15%
John Kasich
22% | Scott Walker
10%  | Ted Cruz
9%  | Mike Huckabee 9%, Ben Carson 8%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rick Perry 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1% Undecided 17%
John Kasich
22% | Ted Cruz
11%  | Jeb Bush
9%  | Ben Carson 9%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Rand Paul 7%, Marco Rubio 6%, Chris Christie 5%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 1% Undecided 15%
Quinnipiac University Archived April 5, 2016, at the Wayback Machine

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 337

| January 22 – February 1, 2015  | Mitt Romney
15% | John Kasich
11% | Scott Walker
10% | Jeb Bush 9%, Rand Paul 8%, Ben Carson 7%, Ted Cruz 5%, Mike Huckabee 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Marco Rubio 3%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Perry 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 2%, Undecided 18%
John Kasich
14% | Scott Walker
11% | Jeb Bush
10% | Rand Paul 10%, Ben Carson 8%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 6%, Marco Rubio 4%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 2%, Undecided 20%
Magellan Strategies

Margin of error: ± 6%
Sample size: 300

| April 14–15, 2014  | Mike Huckabee
17% | Rand Paul
15% | Jeb Bush
13% | Chris Christie 13%, Ted Cruz 12%, John Kasich 10%, Marco Rubio 5%, Scott Walker 4%, Undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5.2%
Sample size: 357

| Aug. 16–19, 2013  | Chris Christie
17% | Rand Paul
17% | Jeb Bush
10%  | Marco Rubio 9%, John Kasich 8%, Paul Ryan 8%, Ted Cruz 6%, Bobby Jindal 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Someone Else/Undecided 17%

The opinion polls during early March showed a narrow lead for Trump over Governor Kasich. These polls found approximately 10% support for Marco Rubio, in a distant fourth place. Seeing that many Rubio voters also preferred Governor Kasich as "establishment" voters, Rubio's communications director encouraged Rubio voters to vote for Kasich on March 11.[21] The strategy seemed to work, as Kasich drew narrowly ahead in the polls immediately before the election.[22] Kasich was seen as a slight favorite to take the state immediately before the primary.[23]

## Results

[edit]

Ohio Republican primary, March 15, 2016  Candidate  | Votes  | Percentage  | Actual delegate count

|
|
|

Bound  | Unbound  | Total
John Kasich | 933,886 | 46.95% | 66 | 0 | 66
Donald Trump | 713,404  | 35.87%  | 0  | 0  | 0
Ted Cruz | 264,640  | 13.31%  | 0  | 0  | 0
Marco Rubio | 46,478  | 2.34%  | 0  | 0  | 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) | 14,351  | 0.72%  | 0  | 0  | 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) | 5,398  | 0.27%  | 0  | 0  | 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) | 4,941  | 0.25%  | 0  | 0  | 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 2,430  | 0.12%  | 0  | 0  | 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) | 2,112  | 0.11%  | 0  | 0  | 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) | 1,320  | 0.07%  | 0  | 0  | 0
Unprojected delegates:  | 0  | 0  | 0
Total:  | 1,988,960  | 100.00%  | 66  | 0  | 66
Source: The Green Papers

Marco Rubio suspended his campaign after March 15's contests, although this was more based on a poor Florida primary as opposed to the Ohio contest.[24]

## References

[edit]

1. ^ "Ohio Republican Delegation 2012". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
2. ^ "Super Tuesday II: Clinton sweeps Florida, Illinois, Ohio and North Carolina; Rubio quits after Trump wins Florida". Washington Post. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
3. ^ "Ohio GOP sets presidential primary as a winner-take-all event, a move that could boost John Kasich". cleveland.com. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
4. ^ "Michigan Republican Presidential Primary". americanresearchgroup.com. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
5. ^ "Trump wins in Hawaii, Mississippi and Michigan". Washington Post. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
6. ^ "2016 Ohio Republican Presidential Primary". American Research Group. Archived from the original on March 15, 2016. Retrieved March 15, 2016.
7. ^ "OHIO: KASICH, TRUMP IN GOP SQUEAKER; CLINTON LEADS IN DEM RACE" (PDF). Monmouth University Polling Institute. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 14, 2016. Retrieved March 15, 2016.
8. ^ "TRUMP TOPS RUBIO IN FLORIDA, TIES KASICH IN OHIO, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; CLINTON LEADS SANDERS IN TWO CRITICAL PRIMARIES" (PDF). Quinnipiac University. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 14, 2016. Retrieved March 14, 2016.
9. ^ "Poll: Trump and Kasich neck-and-neck in Ohio; Trump leads in Florida". YouGov. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
10. ^ "Polls: Trump Ahead in Florida, Illinois; Kasich Leads in Ohio". NBC News. Retrieved March 13, 2016.
11. ^ "Fox News Poll: Kasich ahead in Ohio". Fox News. Retrieved March 10, 2016.
12. ^ "TRUMP BURIES RUBIO 2-1 IN FLORIDA GOP PRIMARY, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; KASICH TRYING TO CATCH TRUMP IN OHIO" (PDF). Quinnipiac University. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 10, 2016. Retrieved March 10, 2016.
13. ^ "Trump, Kasich in Tight Ohio Race" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
14. ^ Bradner, Eric (March 9, 2016). "CNN/ORC Poll: Trump, Clinton leading in Florida, Ohio". CNN. Retrieved March 9, 2016.
15. ^ "Quinnipiac University Poll" (PDF). Retrieved February 26, 2016.
16. ^ "Topline Report: Ohio Election Poll" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on February 28, 2016. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
17. ^ "Quinnipiac University Poll" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on December 13, 2015. Retrieved January 7, 2016.
18. ^ "Quinnipiac University Poll" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on August 20, 2015. Retrieved January 7, 2015.
19. ^ "Quinnipiac University Poll" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on June 19, 2015. Retrieved January 7, 2015.
20. ^ "Public Policy Polling" (PDF). Retrieved January 7, 2015.
21. ^ Tal Kopan, Julia Manchester and MJ Lee. "Best chance to stop Trump in Ohio is Kasich, Rubio adviser says". CNN. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
22. ^ "ARG (3/12-3/13 2016)". The Huffington Post. Archived from the original on March 15, 2016. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
23. ^ "What's At Stake For Republicans In The March 15 Primaries". FiveThirtyEight. March 14, 2016. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
24. ^ "Rubio suspends presidential campaign". POLITICO. Retrieved June 23, 2016.

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