2021 Western Australian state election

State general election for Western Australia, held on 13 March 2021

2021 Western Australian state election

* * *

| <- 2017 | 13 March 2021 | 2025 ->

|
|

<- outgoing members

elected members ->

* * *

All 59 seats in the Western Australian Legislative Assembly
and all 36 members in the Western Australian Legislative Council
30 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout| 1,467,159 (85.46%)
|  | First party  | Second party  | Third party

|
|
|

|  |  |
Leader  | Mark McGowan | Mia Davies | Zak Kirkup
Party  | Labor | National | Liberal
Leader since  | 23 January 2012 (2012-01-23) | 21 March 2017 (2017-03-21) | 24 November 2020
Leader's seat  | Rockingham | Central Wheatbelt | Dawesville
(lost seat)
Last election  | 41 seats  | 5 seats  | 13 seats
Seats before  | 40  | 6  | 13
Seats won  | 53 | 4  | 2
Seat change  |  13  |  2  |  11
First preference vote  | 846,116 | 56,448  | 300,796
Percentage  | 59.92% | 4.00%  | 21.30%
Swing  |  17.70  |  1.40  |  9.90
2PP | 69.70% |  | 30.30%
2PP swing  |  14.10  |  |  14.10

* * *

Winning margin by electorate.

* * *

| Premier before election

Mark McGowan
Labor

| Elected Premier

Mark McGowan
Labor

|

The 2021 Western Australian state election was held on Saturday, March 13, to elect members to the Parliament of Western Australia, where all 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly and all 36 seats in the Legislative Council were up for election.

The incumbent Labor Government, led by Premier Mark McGowan, won a second consecutive four-year term in office in a historic landslide victory. Their primary challengers were the opposition Liberal Party, led by Opposition Leader Zak Kirkup, and the National Party, led by Mia Davies. Several minor parties also contested the election in the Assembly and Council.

ABC News psephologist Antony Green called the election for the Labor Party 42 minutes after the polls closed, with 0.7% of the vote counted.[1][2] Labor won 53 out of 59 of the seats in the Assembly, outdoing its previous record of 41 seats in 2017, whilst the Liberals had a wipeout loss and won only two seats, suffering a 14% two-party preferred swing.[3] The Nationals claimed the four remaining seats and became the largest opposition party in the Assembly. To date, the election is the most decisive result at any Australian state or federal election since Federation in terms of the percentage of lower house seats controlled by the governing party (89.8%),[4] and two-party preferred margin (69.7%–30.3%).[5] Labor's unprecedented victory extended to the Legislative Council, and the party claimed a majority of the seats in the upper house for the first time.[6]

Candidates were elected to single-member seats in the Legislative Assembly via full-preferential instant-runoff voting. In the Legislative Council, six candidates were elected in each of the six electoral regions through the single transferable vote system with group voting tickets. The Western Australian Electoral Commission conducted the elections.

## Results

[edit]

### Legislative Assembly

[edit]

See also: Results of the 2021 Western Australian state election (Legislative Assembly)

Government (53)

Labor (53)

Opposition (6)

National (4)

Liberal (2)

Winning party by electorate. Legislative Assembly (IRV) – Turnout 85.46% (CV)[7][8]

Party  | Votes  | %  | Swing  | Seats  | +/–
| Labor | 846,116  | 59.92  | +17.72  | 53  |  13
| Liberal | 300,796  | 21.30  | −9.92  | 2  |  11
| Greens | 97,713  | 6.92  | −1.99  | 0  |
| Nationals | 56,448  | 4.00  | −1.40  | 4  |  2
| No Mandatory Vaccination | 23,178  | 1.64  | +1.64  | 0  |
| Australian Christians | 20,869  | 1.48  | −0.62  | 0  |
| One Nation | 17,824  | 1.26  | −3.67  | 0  |
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | 9,669  | 0.69  | −0.62  | 0  |
| WAxit | 7,984  | 0.57  | −0.43  | 0  |
| Liberal Democrats | 7,159  | 0.51  | +0.46  | 0  |
| Western Australia | 5,276  | 0.37  | −0.09  | 0  |
| Legalise Cannabis | 4,996  | 0.35  | +0.35  | 0  |
| Sustainable Australia | 1,356  | 0.10  | +0.10  | 0  |
| Socialist Alliance | 726  | 0.05  | −0.00  | 0  |
| Liberals for Climate | 552  | 0.04  | −0.13  | 0  |
| Independents | 11,328  | 0.80  | −1.04  | 0  |
Formal votes  | 1,411,990  | 96.24  | +0.78  |  |
Informal votes  | 55,169  | 3.76  | −0.78  |  |
Total  | 1,467,159  |  |  | 59  |
Registered voters / turnout  | 1,716,732  | 85.46  | −2.06  |  |
Two-party-preferred vote[9]
| Labor | 983,299  | 69.68  |  14.14  |  |
| Liberal/Nationals | 427,812  | 30.32  |  14.14  |  |

Although the Liberals and Nationals did not contest the election as a coalition and are separate parties, the two-party-preferred calculation aggregates Labor/Liberal and Labor/Nationals contests.

#### Seats changing parties

[edit]

Seat  | Pre-2021  | Swing  | Post-2021

|
|
|

Party  | Member  | Margin  | Margin  | Member  | Party
Bateman |  | Liberal  | Dean Nalder | 7.8  | 14.5  | 6.7  | Kim Giddens | Labor  |
Carine |  | Liberal  | Tony Krsticevic | 10.2  | 12.6  | 2.4  | Paul Lilburne | Labor  |
Churchlands |  | Liberal  | Sean L'Estrange | 11.7  | 12.5  | 0.8  | Christine Tonkin | Labor  |
Darling Range |  | Liberal  | Alyssa Hayden | 3.5*  | 16.5  | 12.9  | Hugh Jones | Labor  |
Dawesville |  | Liberal  | Zak Kirkup | 0.8  | 14.7  | 13.9  | Lisa Munday | Labor  |
Geraldton |  | National**  | Ian Blayney | 1.3  | 12.9  | 11.6  | Lara Dalton | Labor  |
Hillarys |  | Liberal  | Peter Katsambanis | 0.4  | 19.3  | 19.0  | Caitlin Collins | Labor  |
Kalgoorlie |  | Liberal  | Kyran O'Donnell | 6.2  | 18.2  | 12.0  | Ali Kent | Labor  |
Nedlands |  | Liberal  | Bill Marmion | 8.0  | 10.8  | 2.8  | Katrina Stratton | Labor  |
Riverton |  | Liberal  | Mike Nahan | 4.2  | 13.2  | 9.0  | Jags Krishnan | Labor  |
Scarborough |  | Liberal  | Liza Harvey | 5.7  | 16.1  | 10.4  | Stuart Aubrey | Labor  |
South Perth |  | Liberal  | John McGrath | 7.2  | 17.3  | 10.1  | Geoff Baker | Labor  |
Warren-Blackwood |  | National  | Terry Redman | 12.8  | 14.1  | 1.3  | Jane Kelsbie | Labor  |
Members listed in italics did not contest this election
* Darling Range was won by Labor at the 2017 state election, but was regained by the Liberals at a 2018 by-election. The margin here is based on the by-election result.
** Ian Blayney defected from the Liberal Party to the Nationals in 2019. The margin shown here is the two-party margin Blayney achieved as a Liberal at the 2017 state election.

Labor's victory was built on a near-sweep of Perth. Labor had gone into the election holding 33 of Perth's 43 seats (having lost one at a by-election). It won an additional nine in 2021, some on swings of over 10 percent, leaving Cottesloe as the only non-Labor seat in the capital. Many of Labor's gains came in seats long considered Liberal heartland. For example, Nedlands, the seat of former Liberal premiers Charles and Richard Court, fell to Labor for the first time since its creation in 1930, while South Perth was taken by Labor for the first time since its creation in 1950.

Among the more prominent casualties was Opposition Leader Zak Kirkup, who was heavily defeated in his own seat of Dawesville on a swing of over 14 percent, and former opposition leader Liza Harvey, whose seat of Scarborough fell to a 16 percent swing.

On paper, Labor was left as the only party with official status in the legislature, as no other party won at least five seats. However, McGowan promised that the Nationals would be properly resourced as an opposition, envisaging that they would divide opposition funding with the Liberals.[10]

### Legislative Council

[edit]

See also: Results of the 2021 Western Australian state election (Legislative Council)

Government (22)

Labor (22)

Opposition (10)

Liberal (7)

National (3)

Crossbench (4)

Legalise Cannabis (2)

Greens (1)

Daylight Saving (1)

Legislative Council (STV/GVT) – Turnout 85.50% (CV)[7]

Party  | Primary votes  | %  | Swing  | Seats  | +/-
| Labor | 868,374  | 60.34  | +19.93  | 22 (61.11%) |  8
| Liberal | 254,380  | 17.68  | −9.03  | 7 (19.44%) |  2
| Greens | 91,849  | 6.38  | −2.22  | 1 (2.78%) |  3
| National | 40,285  | 2.80  | −1.63  | 3 (8.33%) |  1
| Legalise Cannabis | 28,473  | 1.98  | +1.98  | 2 (5.56%) |  2
| Australian Christians | 28,051  | 1.95  | +0.01  | 0 (0%) |
| One Nation | 21,259  | 1.48  | −6.71  | 0 (0%) |  3
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | 21,210  | 1.47  | −0.89  | 0 (0%) |  1
| No Mandatory Vaccination | 16,094  | 1.12  | +1.12  | 0 (0%) |
| Western Australia Party | 10,496  | 0.73  | +0.34  | 0 (0%) |
| Animal Justice | 9,732  | 0.64  | −0.42  | 0 (0%) |
| Liberal Democrats | 9,218  | 0.64  | −1.13  | 0 (0%) |  1
| Liberals for Climate | 7,515  | 0.52  | +0.08  | 0 (0%) |
| WAxit | 4,924  | 0.34  | −0.21  | 0 (0%) |
| Sustainable Australia | 4,405  | 0.31  | +0.31  | 0 (0%) |
| Daylight Saving | 3,485  | 0.24  | −0.44  | 1 (2.78%) |  1
| Great Australian | 3,397  | 0.24  | +0.24  | 0 (0%) |
| Health Australia | 3,105  | 0.22  | +0.22  | 0 (0%) |
| Socialist Alliance | 948  | 0.07  | −0.04  | 0 (0%) |
| Independents | 11,486  | 0.80  | −0.35  | 0 (0%) |
| Other  | 482  | 0.03  | +0.03  | 0 (0%) |
Formal votes  | 1,439,168  | 98.05  | +0.76  |  |
Informal votes  | 28,577  | 1.95  | −0.76  |  |
Total | 1,467,745  |  |  | 36 (100%) |
Registered voters / turnout  | 1,716,732  | 85.50  |  |  |

#### Distribution of seats

[edit]

| Electoral region  | Seats held

|

Agricultural |  |  |  |  |  |
East Metropolitan |  |  |  |  |  |
Mining and Pastoral |  |  |  |  |  |
North Metropolitan |  |  |  |  |  |
South Metropolitan |  |  |  |  |  |
South West |  |  |  |  |  |
|  | Daylight Saving

|

| Greens
| Labor
| Legalise Cannabis
| Liberal
| National

## Background

[edit]

See also: Results of the Western Australian state election, 2017 (Legislative Assembly) and Results of the Western Australian state election, 2017 (Legislative Council)

The 2017 state election saw Labor win one of the most comprehensive victories on record at the state or territory level in Australia. Labor won 41 of the 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly—a 23-seat majority—both WA Labor's strongest result ever, and the largest government seat tally and largest government majority in Western Australian parliamentary history. Additionally, Labor exceeded all published opinion polling, winning 55.5 percent of the two-party-preferred vote from a state record landslide 12.8 percent two-party swing.[11][12] The Liberals were hit by a 15.8% swing against them on the primary vote and lost 18 seats to Labor, finishing with just 13 seats, the lowest share of seats the party has won in any election. The Nationals won the remaining five seats.[13] Labor also became the largest party in the Legislative Council with 14 of the 36 seats, ensuring it required at least five additional votes from non-government members to pass legislation.[13][14]

Two by-elections were held during the term of parliament, both in 2018. The Liberal Party held the seat of Cottesloe and picked up the seat Darling Range, increasing the Liberal/National bloc in the Assembly to 19 and decreasing the Labor Party to 40. In July/August 2019, Liberal MP Ian Blayney resigned from the party and joined the Nationals, thus returning the Liberal vote bloc to 13 and increasing the National vote bloc to 6.[15]

In the lead up to the election, Premier Mark McGowan had high approval ratings over his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Opinion polls pegged the McGowan Government as unbackable favourites for a second term, and suggested that Labor would be re-elected by a record majority. Labor enjoyed support approaching 70% in the two-party preferred polls, and McGowan maintained a personal approval rating of 88%.[16] On 25 February 2021, 16 days before Election Day, Leader of the Opposition Zak Kirkup conceded that the Liberals could not win the election, citing polling indicating immense popularity for McGowan and the Labor Government. Kirkup said that his main priority was ensuring the Liberals would be able to form a credible opposition, arguing that a Liberal party room reduced to the single digits would be in no position to stop Labor if it went "too far."[17]

## Electoral system

[edit]

Candidates are elected to single-member seats in the Legislative Assembly via full-preferential instant-runoff voting. In the Legislative Council, six candidates are elected in each of the six electoral regions through the single transferable vote system with group voting tickets.[18]

## Registered parties

[edit]

The following parties contested the election:[19]

* Animal Justice Party
* Australian Christians
* Daylight Saving Party
* Great Australian Party
* Greens Western Australia
* Health Australia Party
* Labor Party
* Legalise Cannabis Western Australia Party
* Liberal Party
* Liberal Democratic Party

* Liberals for Climate
* National Party of Australia
* No Mandatory Vaccination Party
* Pauline Hanson's One Nation
* Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party
* Socialist Alliance
* Sustainable Australia
* WAxit Party
* Western Australia Party

|

## Key dates

[edit]

Election dates are set in statute with four-year fixed terms, to be held on the second Saturday of March every four years.[20]

Key dates for the election are:[21]

Date  | Event

|

29 January 2021  | Dissolution of the Legislative Assembly[22]
3 February 2021  | Writs issued
11 February 2021  | Close of party nominations (12 pm) and close of electoral rolls (6 pm)
12 February 2021  | Close of nominations (12 pm) and draw of ballot paper positions
15 February 2021  | Deadline for group voting ticket lodgement
22 February 2021  | Early voting begins
13 March 2021  | Polling day, between the hours of 8 am and 6 pm
18 March 2021  | Last day for receipt of postal votes by 9 am

## Retiring MPs

[edit]

Further information: Candidates of the 2021 Western Australian state election

### Labor

[edit]

* Janine Freeman MLA (Mirrabooka) – announced 25 November 2020[23]
* Josie Farrer MLA (Kimberley) – announced 18 August 2020[24]
* Fran Logan MLA (Cockburn) – announced 31 August 2020[25]
* Mick Murray MLA (Collie-Preston) – announced 9 February 2020[26]
* Peter Watson MLA (Albany) – announced 10 February 2020[27]
* Ben Wyatt MLA (Victoria Park) – announced 16 November 2020[28]
* Adele Farina MLC (South West) – lost preselection, announced retirement 26 June 2020[29]
* Laurie Graham MLC (Agricultural) – announced 21 July 2020[30]

### Liberal

[edit]

* John McGrath MLA (South Perth) – announced 30 October 2019[31]
* Mike Nahan MLA (Riverton) – announced 2 December 2019[32]
* Dean Nalder MLA (Bateman) – announced 1 December 2020[33]
* Ken Baston MLC (Mining and Pastoral) – announced 2 December 2019[32]
* Simon O'Brien MLC (South Metropolitan) – lost preselection 3 February 2020,[34] did not renominate

### Nationals

[edit]

* Jacqui Boydell MLC (Mining and Pastoral) – announced 21 February 2020[35][36]
* Colin Holt MLC (South West) – announced 19 August 2020[37]

### Greens

[edit]

* Robin Chapple MLC (Mining and Pastoral) – announced 27 February 2020[38]

## Campaign/candidate controversies

[edit]

In January 2021, Liberal Party candidate for Victoria Park Amanda-Sue Markham defended her husband's controversial views on homosexuality and conversion therapy. Despite calls for her to do so, she did not withdraw from the election.[39]

Additionally, the Liberal Party candidate for Baldivis, Andrea Tokaji, was forced to resign from the Liberal Party after making discredited claims[40] about a link between 5G towers and COVID-19.[41] She continued as an Independent candidate for Baldivis, with the Liberal Party selecting Luke Derrick as her replacement.[42]

In March 2021, One Nation dumped Roger Barnett as its candidate for the seat of Forrestfield after offensive Muslim and Aboriginal comments emerged from his Facebook page that were posted between 2012 and 2018. It was also reported later that another One Nation candidate had comments that were offensive towards Muslim and African people.[43]

## Redistribution

[edit]

A redistribution of electoral boundaries for the lower house was announced on 27 November 2019. The changes did not result in a district changing party status notionally based on the new boundaries. However, the districts of Hillarys and Joondalup became far more marginal, with margins of 0.4 and 0.03 respectively. There was one seat renamed in due to the boundary changes, with Girrawheen becoming the new district of Landsdale. Ten districts were not affected by boundary changes.[44]

## Electoral pendulums

[edit]

### Pre-election pendulum

[edit]

This is a pre-election pendulum, taking into account the 2019 boundary redistribution. Estimated margins are calculated by Antony Green for the Western Australian Parliamentary Library.[44] Retiring members are shown in italics.

Government seats

Marginal
Joondalup | Emily Hamilton | ALP  | 0.03
Kingsley | Jessica Stojkovski | ALP  | 1.2
Murray-Wellington | Robyn Clarke | ALP  | 1.7
Jandakot | Yaz Mubarakai | ALP  | 1.8
Pilbara | Kevin Michel | ALP v NAT  | 2.2
Kalamunda | Matthew Hughes | ALP  | 2.3
Bicton | Lisa O'Malley | ALP  | 3.6
Mount Lawley | Simon Millman | ALP  | 4.0
Burns Beach | Mark Folkard | ALP  | 5.4
Albany | Peter Watson | ALP v NAT  | 5.9
Fairly safe
Southern River | Terry Healy | ALP  | 7.9
Balcatta | David Michael | ALP  | 8.0
Wanneroo | Sabine Winton | ALP  | 8.6
Forrestfield | Stephen Price | ALP  | 9.4
Landsdale | Margaret Quirk | ALP  | 9.6
Safe
Bunbury | Don Punch | ALP  | 10.5
Belmont | Cassie Rowe | ALP  | 11.4
Swan Hills | Jessica Shaw | ALP  | 12.1
Morley | Amber-Jade Sanderson | ALP  | 12.3
Perth | John Carey | ALP  | 12.6
Midland | Michelle Roberts | ALP  | 12.8
Kimberley | Josie Farrer | ALP  | 13.1
Cockburn | Fran Logan | ALP  | 14.3
Collie-Preston | Mick Murray | ALP  | 14.7
Thornlie | Chris Tallentire | ALP  | 15.8
Baldivis | Reece Whitby | ALP  | 16.6
Victoria Park | Ben Wyatt | ALP  | 16.8
Cannington | Bill Johnston | ALP  | 17.6
Willagee | Peter Tinley | ALP  | 17.7
Maylands | Lisa Baker | ALP  | 17.9
Mandurah | David Templeman | ALP  | 18.0
West Swan | Rita Saffioti | ALP  | 18.4
Very safe
Butler | John Quigley | ALP  | 20.5
Kwinana | Roger Cook | ALP  | 20.7
Bassendean | Dave Kelly | ALP  | 21.6
Fremantle | Simone McGurk | ALP  | 23.0
Mirrabooka | Janine Freeman | ALP  | 23.3
Rockingham | Mark McGowan | ALP  | 23.5
Warnbro | Paul Papalia | ALP  | 23.7
Armadale | Tony Buti | ALP  | 25.2
Non-government seats

Marginal
Hillarys | Peter Katsambanis | LIB  | 0.4
Dawesville | Zak Kirkup | LIB  | 0.8
Darling Range | Alyssa Hayden | LIB (b/e)  | 3.5
Riverton | Mike Nahan | LIB  | 4.2
Scarborough | Liza Harvey | LIB  | 5.7
Fairly safe
Kalgoorlie | Kyran O'Donnell | LIB  | 6.2
South Perth | John McGrath | LIB  | 7.2
Bateman | Dean Nalder | LIB  | 7.8
Nedlands | Bill Marmion | LIB  | 8.0
Safe
Carine | Tony Krsticevic | LIB  | 10.2
Churchlands | Sean L'Estrange | LIB  | 11.7
Vasse | Libby Mettam | LIB  | 14.6
Very safe
Cottesloe | David Honey | LIB v GRN (b/e)  | 20.2
Crossbench seats
Geraldton | Ian Blayney (NAT)  | LIB v ALP  | 1.3
North West Central | Vince Catania | NAT v ALP  | 10.1
Warren-Blackwood | Terry Redman | NAT v ALP  | 12.8
Moore | Shane Love | NAT v LIB  | 19.5
Central Wheatbelt | Mia Davies | NAT v ALP  | 22.2
Roe | Peter Rundle | NAT v LIB  | 25.9

### Post-election pendulum

[edit]

Government seats

Marginal
Churchlands | Christine Tonkin | ALP v LIB  | 0.8
Warren-Blackwood | Jane Kelsbie | ALP v NAT  | 1.3
Carine | Paul Lilburne | ALP v LIB  | 2.5
Nedlands | Katrina Stratton | ALP v LIB  | 2.8
Fairly safe
Bateman | Kim Giddens | ALP v LIB  | 6.7
Riverton | Jags Krishnan | ALP v LIB  | 9.0
Safe
South Perth | Geoff Baker | ALP v LIB  | 10.1
Scarborough | Stuart Aubrey | ALP v LIB  | 10.4
Geraldton | Lara Dalton | ALP v NAT  | 11.7
Kalamunda | Matthew Hughes | ALP v LIB  | 11.8
Kalgoorlie | Ali Kent | ALP v LIB  | 12.0
Darling Range | Hugh Jones | ALP v LIB  | 13.5
Albany | Rebecca Stephens | ALP v LIB  | 13.7
Dawesville | Lisa Munday | ALP v LIB  | 13.9
Bicton | Lisa O'Malley | ALP v LIB  | 15.6
Fremantle | Simone McGurk | ALP v GRN  | 15.8
Kingsley | Jessica Stojkovski | ALP v LIB  | 16.9
Murray-Wellington | Robyn Clarke | ALP v LIB  | 17.2
Hillarys | Caitlin Collins | ALP v LIB  | 19.0
Very safe
Pilbara | Kevin Michel | ALP v NAT  | 20.4
Jandakot | Yaz Mubarakai | ALP v LIB  | 21.0
Kimberley | Divina D'Anna | ALP v LIB  | 21.4
Mount Lawley | Simon Millman | ALP v LIB  | 21.6
Bunbury | Don Punch | ALP v LIB  | 22.5
Collie-Preston | Jodie Hanns | ALP v LIB  | 23.4
Joondalup | Emily Hamilton | ALP v LIB  | 24.7
Mandurah | David Templeman | ALP v LIB  | 25.2
Landsdale | Margaret Quirk | ALP v LIB  | 25.4
Forrestfield | Stephen Price | ALP v LIB  | 25.5
Midland | Michelle Roberts | ALP v LIB  | 25.5
Balcatta | David Michael | ALP v LIB  | 25.8
Cockburn | David Scaife | ALP v LIB  | 26.7
Burns Beach | Mark Folkard | ALP v LIB  | 26.9
Swan Hills | Jessica Shaw | ALP v LIB  | 27.1
Willagee | Peter Tinley | ALP v LIB  | 27.1
Victoria Park | Hannah Beazley | ALP v LIB  | 27.8
Wanneroo | Sabine Winton | ALP v LIB  | 28.4
Morley | Amber-Jade Sanderson | ALP v LIB  | 28.6
Belmont | Cassie Rowe | ALP v LIB  | 29.2
Maylands | Lisa Baker | ALP v LIB  | 29.3
Perth | John Carey | ALP v LIB  | 29.3
Cannington | Bill Johnston | ALP v LIB  | 30.4
Thornlie | Chris Tallentire | ALP v LIB  | 30.9
Bassendean | Dave Kelly | ALP v LIB  | 31.6
Butler | John Quigley | ALP v LIB  | 32.2
Southern River | Terry Healy | ALP v LIB  | 33.1
Warnbro | Paul Papalia | ALP v LIB  | 33.4
Mirrabooka | Meredith Hammat | ALP v LIB  | 33.7
West Swan | Rita Saffioti | ALP v LIB  | 34.2
Kwinana | Roger Cook | ALP v LIB  | 34.8
Armadale | Tony Buti | ALP v LIB  | 35.5
Baldivis | Reece Whitby | ALP v LIB  | 36.9
Rockingham | Mark McGowan | ALP v LIB  | 37.7
Non-government seats

Marginal
North West Central | Vince Catania | NAT  | 1.7
Fairly safe
Moore | Shane Love | NAT  | 8.5
Safe
Central Wheatbelt | Mia Davies | NAT  | 10.7
Roe | Peter Rundle | NAT  | 11.1
Crossbench seats
Vasse | Libby Mettam | LIB  | 4.3
Cottesloe | David Honey | LIB  | 7.4

## Opinion polling

[edit]

### Graphical summary

[edit]

Primary vote

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

|

Two-party preferred

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

|

### Voting intention

[edit]

Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling Date  | Firm  | Primary vote  | TPP vote

|
|
|

ALP  | LIB  | NAT  | GRN  | ONP  | OTH  | ALP  | LIB
13 March 2021 election | 59.9%  | 21.3%  | 4.0%  | 6.9%  | 1.3%  | 6.6%  | 69.7%  | 30.3%
5–11 March 2021  | Newspoll[45] | 57%  | 23%  | 3%  | 9%  | 2%  | 6%  | 66%  | 34%
18 February 2021  | Newspoll[46] | 59%  | 23%  | 2%  | 8%  | 3%  | 5%  | 68%  | 32%
16 February 2021  | uComms[47] | 46.8%  | 27.5%  | 5.1%  | 8.3%  | 6.9%  | 5.3%  | 61%  | 39%
16 February 2021  | Online Research Unit[48] | 49%  | 24%  | 3%  | 9%  | 3%  | 12%  | N/A
12 August 2018  | YouGov-Galaxy[49] | 40%  | 32%  | 6%  | 11%  | 5%  | 6%  | 54%  | 46%
Oct-Dec 2017  | Essential[50] | 41%  | 29%  | 4%  | 13%  | 7%  | 6%  | 57%  | 43%
Jul-Sep 2017  | Essential[50] | 39%  | 32%  | 4%  | 12%  | 8%  | 6%  | 54%  | 46%
Apr-Jun 2017  | Essential[50] | 44%  | 33%  | 4%  | 9%  | 5%  | 6%  | 55%  | 45%
11 March 2017 election | 42.2%  | 31.2%  | 5.4%  | 8.9%  | 4.9%  | 7.4%  | 55.5%  | 44.5%

### Better Premier and leadership approval

[edit]

Better Premier and satisfaction polling* Date  | Firm  | Preferred Premier  | McGowan  | Kirkup

|
|
|
|

McGowan  | Kirkup  | Undecided  | Satisfied  | Dissatisfied  | Undecided  | Satisfied  | Dissatisfied  | Undecided
5–11 March 2021[45] | Newspoll | 79% | 13%  | 8%  | 88% | 10%  | 2%  | 32%  | 49% | 19%
18 February 2021[46] | Newspoll | 83% | 10%  | 7%  | 88% | 10%  | 2%  | 29%  | 41% | 30%

### Electorate polling

[edit]

Electorate  | Date  | Firm  | Primary vote  | TPP

|
|
|
|

ALP  | LIB  | NAT  | GRN  | ONP  | OTH  | ALP  | L/NP
Dawesville | 11 March 2021[51] | YouGov | 55%  | 33%  | —  | 3%  | 2%  | 7%  | 60% | 40%

## Newspaper endorsements

[edit]

Newspaper  | Endorsement

|

The West Australian |  | Labor[52]

## Demographic trends

[edit]

While all electorates swung towards Labor, there was some correlation between certain characteristics (demographics as measured by the 2016 Australian Census) and the magnitude of the two-party-preferred swing to Labor in each electorate. This does not necessarily imply a causal relationship but rather some similarities between electoral districts which moved more or less towards the Labor party on the two-party-preferred.[53]

### Incumbent MP

[edit]

Electoral districts which were flipped by a Labor candidate at the last election (e.g. the electoral district of Joondalup, which was a Liberal-held district prior to the 2017 Western Australian state election) saw a bigger swing to Labor than similar districts which were already Labor-held or which had not changed hands. Districts where a Labor incumbent retired (e.g. electoral district of Albany) saw a smaller swing to Labor than similar districts where there were no Labor retirements.[53]

### Age

[edit]

Electoral districts with a high proportion of persons aged 60 years or older swung less to Labor than the rest of the state (R2 = 0.2, p < 0.001), even after adjusting for the incumbency effect mentioned above.[53]

### Occupation

[edit]

Electoral districts with a high proportion of persons working in clerical or administrative jobs swung more to Labor than the rest of the state (R2 = 0.12, p < 0.01). This may be confounded by the fact that most such electorates are inner-city Perth electorates and therefore this may be more a factor of inner-city Perth swinging harder to Labor than the rest of the state, and not due to clerical/administrative-heavy electorates swinging to Labor per se.[53]

### Language

[edit]

Electorates with a higher proportion of persons who spoke a language other than English at home also somewhat swung more to Labor than the rest of the state (R2 = 0.08, p < 0.05).[53]

## See also

[edit]

* 2020 Liberal Party of Australia (Western Australian Division) leadership election
* Candidates of the 2021 Western Australian state election
* Members of the Western Australian Legislative Assembly, 2017–2021
* Members of the Western Australian Legislative Council, 2017–2021

## References

[edit]

1. ^ "As it happened: Antony Green calls the election for Labor less than 45 minutes from close of polls". ABC News. 13 March 2021.
2. ^ Law, Peter (14 March 2021). "WA a sea of red in Liberal bloodbath". The Sunday Times. West Australian Newspapers Limited. p. 3\. "Green formally called the election for Labor on ABC at 6.42pm, just 42 minutes after polls closed and with only 0.7 per cent of votes counted."
3. ^ "WA Election: Sean L'Estrange loses Churchlands, leaving Liberals with just two Lower House seats". ABC News. 19 March 2021.
4. ^ "Biggest State Election Landslides". Armarium Interreta. 12 March 2021. Archived from the original on 12 March 2021. Retrieved 7 April 2021.
5. ^ "Mark McGowan claims WA election victory as Liberals all but wiped out". The New Daily. 14 March 2021.
6. ^ "Legislative Council results". ABC Elections.
7. ^ a b "2021 State General Election Results". Western Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
8. ^ "Party Totals". ABC Elections. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
9. ^ Green, Antony (30 March 2021). "Final Two-Party Preferred result for 2021 Western Australian Election". Antony Green's Election Blog. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
10. ^ Michael Ramsey (18 March 2021). "Labor pulls ahead in blue-ribbon WA seats". Seven News. Australian Associated Press.
11. ^ Labor 55.5% 2PP vote and +12.8% 2PP swing sourced from Antony Green's temporary estimate within provided ABC link published 30 March 2017, which states "The two-party preferred count is based on estimates for Baldivis, Moore and Roe. Actual two-party preferred counts for these seats will be available at a later date." – Final 2017 WA Election Results plus a New Electoral Pendulum: Antony Green ABC 30 March 2017
12. ^ Antony Green (16 March 2017). "The Role of One-Vote One-Value Electoral Reforms in Labor's Record WA Victory". ABC News (Australia). Retrieved 16 March 2017.
13. ^ a b "WA Election 2017". ABC News. 11 March 2017. Retrieved 12 March 2017.
14. ^ Gartry, Laura; Weber, David (26 March 2017). "WA Labor misses out on upper house working majority by one seat". ABC News.
15. ^ Piesse, Emily (17 August 2019). "Defector confirmed as newest WA Nationals party member". ABC News.
16. ^ "Gospel according to Mark: can anything stop Western Australia's Covid saviour's re-election?". The Guardian. 20 February 2021. Retrieved 15 March 2021.
17. ^ "WA election upset as Liberal leader Zak Kirkup concedes he can't win on March 13". ABC News (Australia). Retrieved 25 February 2021.
18. ^ "Voting Systems in WA | Western Australian Electoral Commission". www.elections.wa.gov.au. Retrieved 2 January 2021.
19. ^ "Legislative Assembly - Candidates by Party". www.elections.wa.gov.au. Retrieved 21 February 2021.
20. ^ "'So when is the next election?'". aph.gov.au. 1 September 2016. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
21. ^ "Key dates". Western Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 3 February 2021.
22. ^ "Proclamation dissolving Legislative Assembly 2021" (PDF). Western Australian Government Gazette. Retrieved 3 February 2021.
23. ^ "'I believe it is time for renewal': Labor MP Janine Freeman to retire at next election". www.watoday.com.au. 25 November 2020.
24. ^ "Premier pays tribute to member for Kimberley Josie Farrer". Mirage News. 18 August 2020. Retrieved 18 August 2020.
25. ^ Gubana, Benjamin (31 August 2020). "Veteran WA Labor Minister to quit politics, hopes young candidate will step in". ABC News. Retrieved 1 September 2020.
26. ^ Munday, Thomas (9 February 2020). "Collie-Preston MLA Mick Murray to retire at 2021 State Election". Bunbury Mail.
27. ^ Traill, Michael (10 February 2020). "End of an era - Veteran Albany MP Peter Watson announces his retirement". Albany Advertiser.
28. ^ Bell, Frances (16 November 2020). "WA Treasurer Ben Wyatt announces he will quit politics at March state election". ABC News.
29. ^ "Veteran South West MLC Adele Farina 'deprived' of preselection in next state election". Busselton Mail. 26 June 2020.
30. ^ Swift, Bree (21 July 2020). "Candidates announced for 2021 election". Farm Weekly.
31. ^ De Kruijff, Peter (30 October 2019). "Liberal Member for South Perth John McGrath to retire". The West Australian.
32. ^ a b "Mike Nahan to retire from politics in 2021". Perth Now. 3 December 2019.
33. ^ "Dean Nalder quits politics". The West Australian. 1 December 2020. Retrieved 1 December 2020.
34. ^ Hondros, Nathan (3 February 2020). "WA Libs opt for renewal as former ministers dumped in preselection battles". WAtoday.
35. ^ "BOYDELL TO RETIRE AT NEXT ELECTION". Facebook. 21 February 2020.
36. ^ "Liberal ticket sees Chown down the list". Farm Weekly. 6 March 2020. Retrieved 26 November 2020.
37. ^ "Colin Holt MLC to retire at 2021 State Election". 19 August 2020. Retrieved 11 February 2024.
38. ^ Hondros, Nathan (27 February 2020). "Freo mayor in tilt for state politics as Greens look to inject 'X-factor'". WA Today.
39. ^ de Kruijff, Peter (30 January 2021). "Liberal candidate under fire over husband's beliefs says 'faith should not be subject of interrogation'". WA Today.
40. ^ Nicholls, Sean; Russell, Ali; Selvaratnam, Naomi (3 August 2020). "What is the truth about 5G? Four Corners spoke to leading experts and anti-5G activists to find out". ABC News (Australia).
41. ^ Ramsey, Michael (28 January 2021). "WA Libs face heat over 5G conspiracy claim". 7 News.
42. ^ Manfield, Evelyn (28 January 2021). "WA election Liberal candidate Andrea Tokaji withdraws after 'dangerous' 5G coronavirus conspiracy theory beliefs revealed". ABC News. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
43. ^ Shine, Rhiannon (8 March 2021). "Liberals to replace how-to-vote cards after One Nation racism row". ABC News.
44. ^ a b Green, Antony. "2019 Redistribution Western Australia: Analysis of New Electoral Boundaries" (PDF). Parliament of Western Australia. Retrieved 2 January 2021.
45. ^ a b Garvey, Paul. "Newspoll: Mark McGowan goes full bore to win". The Australian. Retrieved 12 March 2021.
46. ^ a b "Popular Premier Mark McGowan to lead wipeout in the West". www.theaustralian.com.au. 2021.
47. ^ Bowe, William. "Western Australian election minus three-and-a-half weeks". Poll Bludger. Retrieved 17 February 2021.
48. ^ Law, Peter (15 February 2021). "State Election 2021: Mark McGowan on track to lead WA Labor to biggest ever victory". The West Australian.
49. ^ "Opinion poll: WA Labor still hold strong lead over Liberal-National". 12 August 2018.
50. ^ a b c "State voting intention WA". 9 January 2018. Archived from the original on 4 April 2018.
51. ^ "Kirkup set to lose own seat after knockout Labor swing". The West Australian. 11 March 2021. Retrieved 11 February 2024.
52. ^ "The West Australian". 13 March 2021. p. 2.
53. ^ a b c d e "Which areas drove the swing to Labor in WA 2021?". Armarium Interreta. 31 March 2021. Archived from the original on 31 March 2021. Retrieved 7 April 2021.

## External links

[edit]

* Western Australian Electoral Commission: 2021 State General Election
* ABC Elections: 2021 West Australian Election Guide
* The Poll Bludger: Western Australian Election 2021
* The Tally Room: Western Australia 2021

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