2022 United States Senate election in Arizona

Not to be confused with 2022 Arizona Senate election.

2022 United States Senate election in Arizona

* * *

| <- 2020 (special) | November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08) | 2028 ->

|
|

|  |  |

|
|

Nominee  | Mark Kelly | Blake Masters |
Party  | Democratic | Republican
Popular vote  | 1,322,027 | 1,196,308
Percentage  | 51.39% | 46.51%

* * *

County results

Congressional district results

Precinct results

Kelly: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
Masters: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
Tie: 40–50% No votes

* * *

| U.S. senator before election

Mark Kelly
Democratic

| Elected U.S. senator

Mark Kelly
Democratic

|

Elections in Arizona

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|  List of Arizona ballot propositions

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* v
* t
* e

The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona.

The seat was previously held by Republican John McCain, who won his final term in 2016 and died from glioblastoma on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill the seat. Kyl resigned at the end of that year and Ducey replaced him with Martha McSally, who then lost to Democrat Mark Kelly in 2020.

Primaries in Arizona took place on August 2, 2022. Kelly won renomination without opposition, while venture capitalist Blake Masters won the Republican nomination against a large field of candidates. Although Arizona typically leans Republican, Kelly led Masters by low single digits in aggregate polling. Kelly held a significant fundraising advantage until many Republican-aligned groups began spending to assist Masters in the final weeks of the campaign.[1] On November 1, Libertarian nominee Marc Victor dropped out of the race and endorsed Masters.[2][3][4]

Kelly won re-election, defeating Masters by a comfortable margin of about 5 points.[5] This was the first time Democrats won a full term to this seat since 1962. The 2022 race was competitive and seen as crucial to determining party control of the U.S. Senate; with Kelly's victory in Arizona and a Democratic victory in Nevada, in addition to a Democratic gain in Pennsylvania, it was projected on November 12 that the Democratic caucus would retain control of the Senate in the 118th United States Congress.[6][7] Masters conceded the race to Kelly on November 15, 2022.[8]

## Democratic primary

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Nominee

[edit]

* Mark Kelly, incumbent U.S. Senator[9][10]

### Endorsements

[edit]

Mark Kelly

U.S. Executive Branch officials

* Miles Taylor, former Chief of Staff to the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (2019) (Forward)[11]
* Christine Todd Whitman, former administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (2001–2003) and former governor of New Jersey (1994–2001) (Forward)[11]

U.S Attorneys

* Paul K. Charlton, former United States Attorney for the District of Arizona (2001–2007) (Republican) [12]

Local officials

* John Giles, mayor of Mesa (2014–) (Republican)[12]

Organizations

* 314 Action[13]
* End Citizens United[14]
* Feminist Majority PAC[15]
* Forward Party[16]
* Jewish Dems[17]
* March On[18]
* NARAL Pro-Choice America[19]
* Planned Parenthood Action Fund[20]
* Population Connection Action Fund[21]
* Renew America Movement[22]
* VoteVets.org[23]

### Results

[edit]

Democratic primary results[24][25] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Democratic | Mark Kelly (incumbent)  | 589,400  | 100.0%
Total votes  | 589,400  | 100.0%

## Republican primary

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Nominee

[edit]

* Blake Masters, former president of the Thiel Foundation and former chief operating officer of Thiel Capital[26]

#### Eliminated in primary

[edit]

* Mark Brnovich, Arizona Attorney General[27]
* Jim Lamon, solar power businessman[28]
* Mick McGuire, retired U.S. Air Force major general and former adjutant general of the Arizona National Guard[29]
* Justin Olson, member of the Arizona Corporation Commission[30]

#### Did not file

[edit]

* Craig Brittain[31]
* Robert Paveza, software engineer[32]

#### Declined

[edit]

* Kirk Adams, former Chief of Staff to Governor Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives[33]
* Andy Biggs, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district[34][35]
* Doug Ducey, outgoing Governor of Arizona[36]
* Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor (ran for governor)[37]
* Jack McCain, veteran and son of former U.S. Senator John McCain[38]
* Martha McSally, former U.S. Senator from Arizona (2019–2020)
* Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona Republican Party, former state senator, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018[39]
* Kimberly Yee, State Treasurer of Arizona (ran for re-election)[40][41]

### Endorsements

[edit]

Mark Brnovich

Individuals

* Sean Hannity, talk show host and conservative political commentator[42]
* Mark Levin, lawyer and host of Life, Liberty & Levin[43][44][42]

Newspapers

* Casa Grande Dispatch[45]

Jim Lamon

U.S. Executive Branch officials

* Jeff DeWit, Chief Financial Officer of NASA (2018–2020) and State Treasurer of Arizona (2015–2018)[46]
* Thomas Homan, Acting Director of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (2017–2018)[46]
* Mark A. Morgan, Acting Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection (2019–2021) and Chief of the U.S. Border Patrol (2016–2017)[46]
* Keith Schiller, Director of Oval Office Operations (2017)[46]
* Matthew Whitaker, Acting U.S. Attorney General (2018–2019)[46]
* Chad Wolf, Acting U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (2019–2021)[46]

Statewide officials

* Ken Bennett, Secretary of State of Arizona (2009–2015)[46]

State legislators

* Judy Burges, state representative from the 12th district (2021–present) and state senator from the 22nd district (2012–2019)[46]
* Frank Carroll, state representative from the 22nd district (2019–present)[46]
* David Livingston, state senator (2019–present) and state representative (2013–2019) from the 22nd district[46]
* Kelly Townsend, state senator (2021–present) and state representative (2013–2021) from the 16th district[46]

Individuals

* Brandon Judd, President of the National Border Patrol Council[46]

Organizations

* Arizona Conference of Police and Sheriffs[46]
* Arizona Police Association (APA) [47]
* Conservative Political Action Coalition (CPAC)[48]
* Glendale Law Enforcement Association[46]
* Grassroot Grandmas[46]
* National Association of Police Organizations[46]
* National Border Patrol Council[46]

Former[clarification needed]

* Richard Grenell, U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)[49] (switched endorsement to Blake Masters)

Blake Masters

U.S. Executive Branch officials

* Richard Grenell, U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)[50]
* David M. McIntosh, Director of the Domestic Policy Council (1987–1988) and U.S. Representative from Indiana's 2nd congressional district (1995–2001)[51]
* Robert C. O'Brien, U.S. National Security Advisor (2019–2021)[52]
* Kash Patel, chief of staff to the Acting U.S. Secretary of Defense[50]
* Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[53]

U.S. Senators

* Josh Hawley, Missouri (2019–present)[54]

U.S. Representatives

* Jim Banks, Indiana's 3rd congressional district (2017–present)[55]
* Madison Cawthorn, North Carolina's 11th congressional district (2021–2023)[56]
* Matt Gaetz, Florida's 1st congressional district (2017–present)[55]
* Marjorie Taylor Greene, Georgia's 14th congressional district (2021–present)[57]

Individuals

* Tucker Carlson, host of Tucker Carlson Tonight and conservative political commentator[58]
* Peter Thiel, venture capitalist[59]
* Susie Wiles, political consultant and advisor to Donald Trump[60]

Organizations

* Club for Growth[51]
* Republicans for National Renewal[61]
* Tea Party Express[62]

Rejected by candidate

* Andrew Anglin, neo-Nazi and founder of The Daily Stormer[63][64]

Justin Olson

Organizations

* Stand for Health Freedom[65]

### Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation  | Dates
administered  | Dates
updated  | Mark
Brnovich  | Jim
Lamon  | Blake
Masters  | Michael
McGuire  | Justin
Olson  | Undecided
[a] | Margin

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Real Clear Politics[66] | July 27 – August 1, 2022  | August 2, 2022  | 14.5%  | 22.0%  | 37.0% | 8.5%  | 3.3%  | 17.7%  | Masters +15.0

Graphical summary

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

|

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Mark
Brnovich  | Jim
Lamon  | Blake
Masters  | Michael
McGuire  | Justin
Olson  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

The Trafalgar Group (R)[67] | July 30 – August 1, 2022  | 1,064 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 16%  | 24%  | 39% | 7%  | 4%  | –  | 9%
Emerson College[68] | July 28–30, 2022  | 600 (LV)  | ± 3.9%  | 14%  | 22%  | 40% | 12%  | 3%  | –  | 9%
Rasmussen Reports[69] | July 27–28, 2022  | 710 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 16%  | 19%  | 31% | 10%  | 3%  | 6%  | 15%
OH Predictive Insights[70] | July 27, 2022  | 502 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 12%  | 21%  | 36% | 5%  | 3%  | –  | 22%
Battleground Connect (R)[71] | July 26–27, 2022  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.7%  | 16%  | 30% | 28%  | 8%  | 6%  | –  | 12%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[72] | July 25–27, 2022  | 1,071 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 15%  | 27%  | 35% | 8%  | 6%  | –  | 10%
Battleground Connect (R)[73] | July 17–18, 2022  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.7%  | 16%  | 33% | 28%  | 7%  | 2%  | –  | 14%
Cygnal (R)[74] | July 12–13, 2022  | 419 (LV)  | ± 4.8%  | 18%  | 20%  | 30% | 5%  | 2%  | –  | 25%
Battleground Connect (R)[75] | July 7–9, 2022  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.7%  | 16%  | 29% | 27%  | 4%  | –  | –  | 24%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[76] | July 2–7, 2022  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 13%  | 14%  | 23% | 5%  | 2%  | –  | 44%
Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners[77] | July 5–6, 2022  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 10%  | 14%  | 26% | 5%  | 0%  | –  | 45%
OH Predictive Insights[78] | June 30 – July 2, 2022  | 515 (LV)  | ± 4.3%  | 14%  | 18%  | 25% | 6%  | 2%  | –  | 35%
Public Policy Polling (D)[79] | June 28, 2022  | 595 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 15%  | 10%  | 29% | 5%  | –  | –  | 41%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[80] | June 7–9, 2022  | 1,077 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 24%  | 17%  | 29% | 4%  | 4%  | –  | 22%
Data Orbital (R)[81] | June 1–3, 2022  | 550 (LV)  | ± 4.3%  | 18%  | 20% | 15%  | –  | –  | 12%  | 36%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[82][A] | May 17–18, 2022  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 18%  | 18%  | 22% | 7%  | 2%  | –  | 34%
Cygnal (R)[83][B] | April 28–30, 2022  | – (LV)  | –  | 19%  | 20% | 19%  | 7%  | 2%  | –  | 33%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[84] | April 25–28, 2022  | 1,064 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 24%  | 25% | 19%  | 8%  | 3%  | –  | 21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[85][C] | April 21–24, 2022  | – (LV)  | –  | 22%  | 25% | 16%  | 6%  | –  | –  | 31%
OH Predictive Insights[86] | April 4–5, 2022  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 21% | 16%  | 9%  | 6%  | 3%  | –  | 45%
Data Orbital (R)[87] | April 1–3, 2022  | 550 (LV)  | ± 4.3%  | 20%  | 26% | 10%  | 7%  | 4%  | –  | 33%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[88] | March 26–27, 2022  | 264 (LV)  | ± 6.0%  | 11% | 10%  | 6%  | 4%  | –  | 8%  | 61%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[89][A] | March 13–14, 2022  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 14%  | 14%  | 16% | 3%  | 1%  | –  | 52%
Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners[90] | March 9–12, 2022  | 433 (LV)  | ± 4.7%  | 20% | 15%  | 15%  | 3%  | 1%  | –  | 45%
Data Orbital (R)[87] | March 2022  | – (LV)  | –  | 23% | 17%  | 14%  | 4%  | 5%  | –  | 37%
Data Orbital (R)[87] | February 11–13, 2022  | 300 (LV)  | ± 5.7%  | 22% | 17%  | 15%  | 5%  | 5%  | –  | 37%
co/efficient (R)[91] | February 6–8, 2022  | 755 (LV)  | ± 3.6%  | 17% | 13%  | 12%  | 3%  | 1%  | 11%  | 44%
OH Predictive Insights[92] | January 11–13, 2022  | 302 (RV)  | ± 5.6%  | 25% | 7%  | 6%  | 11%  | 4%  | –  | 47%
OH Predictive Insights[93] | November 1–8, 2021  | 252 (RV)  | ± 6.2%  | 27% | 5%  | 9%  | 12%  | 2%  | –  | 46%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[94][A] | October 26–28, 2021  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 26% | 4%  | 14%  | 2%  | 2%  | <1%[c] | 52%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[95][D] | September 9–12, 2021  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 41% | 5%  | 7%  | 4%  | –  | –  | 43%
OH Predictive Insights[96] | September 7–12, 2021  | 311 (RV)  | ± 5.6%  | 27% | 3%  | 6%  | 14%  | –  | –  | 51%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[94][A] | August 4–8, 2021  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 29% | 7%  | 5%  | 3%  | –  | <1%[c] | 56%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[97] | May 3–5, 2021  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 28% | –  | 1%  | 1%  | –  | –  | 61%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Kirk
Adams  | Andy
Biggs  | Mark
Brnovich  | Doug
Ducey  | Jim
Lamon  | Blake
Masters  | Michael
McGuire  | Justin
Olson  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

co/efficient (R)[91] | February 6–8, 2022  | 755 (LV)  | ± 3.6%  | –  | –  | 14% | 13%  | 11%  | 11%  | 3%  | 1%  | 9%  | 38%
OH Predictive Insights[92] | January 11–13, 2022  | 302 (RV)  | ± 5.6%  | –  | –  | 13%  | 35% | 4%  | 4%  | 9%  | 2%  | –  | 34%
WPA Intelligence (R)[98][E] | April 5–6, 2021  | 505 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | –  | 46% | –  | 45%  | –  | –  | –  | –  | –  | 9%
OH Predictive Insights[99] | March 8–12, 2021  | 690 (RV)  | ± 3.7%  | 2%[d] | 27% | –  | –  | –  | 2%  | 3%  | –  | –  | 67%
6%[e] | 26% | –  | –  | –  | 2%  | 10%  | –  | –  | 56%
Data Orbital (R)[100][F] | February 17–19, 2021  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 2%  | 36% | –  | –  | 1%  | 1%  | 3%  | –  | 4%  | 53%

### Results

[edit]

Republican primary results by county

Masters

* 30–40%

* 40–50%

Lamon

* 30-40%

Republican primary results[24][25] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Republican | Blake Masters | 327,198  | 40.24%
| Republican | Jim Lamon  | 228,467  | 28.10%
| Republican | Mark Brnovich | 144,092  | 17.72%
| Republican | Michael McGuire | 71,100  | 8.75%
| Republican | Justin Olson | 41,985  | 5.16%
| Write-in | 226  | 0.03%
Total votes  | 813,068  | 100.0%

## Libertarian primary

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Nominee

[edit]

* Marc Victor, attorney and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012[101] (withdrew from general election, endorsed Blake Masters)[2]

### Results

[edit]

Libertarian primary results[24][102][25] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Libertarian | Marc Victor  | 3,065  | 100.0%
Total votes  | 3,065  | 100.0%

## General election

[edit]

In what was initially expected to be one of the most widely contested elections in the nation, Kelly amassed a massive fundraising advantage over Masters, raising a record $75 million compared to Masters's $12 million.[103] Due to the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, which reversed Roe v. Wade, Kelly spent the campaign heavily attacking Masters over his anti-abortion stance, which was seen as hurting Masters especially among women voters. He also attacked Masters's support for privatizing Social Security, as Arizona has many retired seniors who use the program. Masters's claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen also hurt him among voters.[104] Steven J. Law, the leader of a Republican-aligned super PAC, said that Masters "had scored the worst focus group results of any candidate he had ever seen," and cancelled all of its Arizona television advertisements supporting Masters to divert money to other races.[105]

With the limited amount of money he had, Masters attempted to portray Kelly as weak on illegal immigration, supportive of spending programs that caused inflation, and too supportive of President Joe Biden. In the final weeks of the campaign, Republican groups increased the amount of money they were spending on the race and polls began to tighten, and many news outlets moved the race from lean Democrat to tossup. However, in the end, Kelly relatively easily defeated Masters, which helped Democrats in retaining the Senate.[106] According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Kelly won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Masters's defeat.[107]

### Predictions

[edit]

Source  | Ranking  | As of

|
|

The Cook Political Report[108] | Tossup  | October 27, 2022
Inside Elections[109] | Tilt D  | October 21, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[110] | Lean D  | October 19, 2022
Politico[111] | Tossup  | October 27, 2022
RCP[112] | Tossup  | October 25, 2022
Fox News[113] | Tossup  | October 25, 2022
DDHQ[114] | Lean D  | October 25, 2022
FiveThirtyEight[115] | Lean D  | October 25, 2022
The Economist[116] | Lean D  | November 1, 2022

### Debates

[edit]

2022 United States Senate general election in Arizona debates  No. | Date  | Host  | Moderator  | Link  | Democratic | Republican | Libertarian

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee

W Withdrawn

|  |  |
Mark Kelly | Blake Masters | Marc Victor
1  | October 6, 2022  | Arizona PBS | Ted Simons  | [117] | P | P | P

### Endorsements

[edit]

Mark Kelly (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

* Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017)[118]
* Miles Taylor, former Chief of Staff to the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (2019) (Forward)[11]
* Christine Todd Whitman, former administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (2001–2003) and former governor of New Jersey (1994–2001) (Forward)[11]

U.S. Senators

* Alex Padilla, U.S. Senator from California (2021–present)[119]
* Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Senator from Arizona (2019–present)[120]

U.S. Representatives

* Raúl Grijalva, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 3rd congressional district (2013–present)[121]

U.S. Attorneys

* Paul K. Charlton, former U.S. Attorney for the District of Arizona (2001–2007) (Republican)[12]

State legislators

* Kirsten Engel, former state senator (2021) from the 10th district[121]
* Pete Hershberger, former state representative (2001–2008) from the 26th district (Republican)[122]
* Roberta Voss, former state representative (1997–2003) from the 19th district (Republican)[122]

Local officials

* Cathy Carlat, mayor of Peoria (2015–present) (Republican)[12]
* Jack Dillenberg, mayor of Jerome (2020–present) (Republican)[12]
* John Giles, Mayor of Mesa (2014–present) (Republican)[12]
* Donald Huish, mayor of Douglas (2016–present) (Republican)[12]
* Paul Johnson, former mayor of Phoenix (1990–1994) and Democratic candidate for Governor of Arizona in 1994 and 1998 (Independent)[122]
* Craig McFarland, mayor of Casa Grande (2016–present) (Republican)[12]
* David Ortega, mayor of Scottsdale (2021–present) (Independent)[12]
* Regina Romero, mayor of Tucson, Arizona (2019–present)[121]
* Chip Wilson, Mayor of Apache Junction (2018–present) (Republican)[12]

Individuals

* Jill Biden, First Lady of the United States[123]
* Camila Cabello, singer[124]
* Kerry Washington, actress[124]

Labor unions

* Communications Workers of America[125]
* International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers[125]
* National Association of Social Workers[125]
* National Education Association[126]
* United Auto Workers[125]
* United Mine Workers of America[127]

Organizations

* 314 Action[13]
* BOLD Democrats[125]
* Brady Campaign[125]
* Common Defense PAC[125]
* End Citizens United[14]
* Equality Arizona[128]
* Feminist Majority PAC[15]
* Forward Party[129]
* Human Rights Campaign[130]
* J Street PAC[125]
* Jewish Dems[17]
* League of Conservation Voters[131]
* March On[18]
* MoveOn[125]
* NARAL Pro-Choice America[125]
* National Organization for Women[125]
* National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[125]
* Our Voice, Our Vote PAC[125]
* Planned Parenthood Action Fund[20]
* Population Connection Action Fund[21]
* Progressive Turnout Project[125]
* Renew America Movement[22]
* Serve America PAC[125]
* Sierra Club[132]
* Stonewall Democrats[125]
* Voter Protection Project[125]
* VoteVets.org[23]

Blake Masters (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

* Duke Buchan, U.S. Ambassador to Spain and Andorra (2018–2021)[133]
* Richard Grenell, former U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)[50]
* David M. McIntosh, former Director of the Domestic Policy Council (1987–1988) and former U.S. Representative from Indiana's 2nd congressional district (1995–2001)[51]
* Robert C. O'Brien, former U.S. National Security Advisor (2019–2021)[52]
* Kash Patel, former chief of staff to the Acting U.S. Secretary of Defense[50]
* Mike Pence, 48th vice president of the United States (2017–2021) and former governor of Indiana (2013–2017)[134]
* Matt Schlapp, White House Director of Political Affairs (2003–2005)[133]
* Mercedes Schlapp, White House Director of Strategic Communications (2017–2019)[133]
* Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[53]
* Chad Wolf, Acting United States Secretary of Homeland Security (2019–2021), Under Secretary of Homeland Security for Strategy, Policy, and Plans (2019–2021) and Assistant Secretary of Homeland Security for Strategy, Plans, Analysis, and Risk (2019)[133]

U.S. Senators

* Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas (2015–present)[135]
* Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present)[136]
* Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator from Missouri (2019–present) and former Missouri Attorney General (2017–2019)[54]
* Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (2011–present)[137]
* Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida (2019–present) and former governor of Florida (2011–2019)[138]

U.S. Representatives

* Jim Banks, U.S. Representative from Indiana's 3rd congressional district (2017–present)[55]
* Andy Biggs, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 5th congressional district (2017–present)[139]
* Madison Cawthorn, U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 11th congressional district (2021–2023)[56]
* Tulsi Gabbard, former U.S. Representative from Hawaii's 2nd congressional district (2013–2021) and former Vice Chair of the Democratic National Committee (2013–2016)[140] (Independent)
* Matt Gaetz, U.S. Representative from Florida's 1st congressional district (2017–present)[55]
* Paul Gosar, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 4th congressional district (2013–2023), U.S. Representative from Arizona's 1st congressional district (2011-2013)[141]
* Debbie Lesko, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2018–present)[139]
* Ron Paul, former U.S. Representative (R-TX) (1976-1977, 1979-1985, 1997-2013), candidate for President in 1988, 2008 and 2012 (Libertarian)[142][143][144]
* David Schweikert, U.S. Representative from Arizona's 6th congressional district (2013–2023), U.S. Representative from Arizona's 5th congressional district (2011-2013)[139]
* Marjorie Taylor Greene, U.S. Representative from Georgia's 14th congressional district (2021–present)[57]

Governors

* Jan Brewer, former governor of Arizona (2009–2015) and former secretary of state of Arizona (2003–2009)[145]
* Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative from Florida's 6th congressional district (2013–2018)[146]
* Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015–2023) and former Arizona State Treasurer (2011–2015)[145]
* Fife Symington, former governor of Arizona (1991–1997)[145]

Local officials

* Mark Lamb, Sheriff of Pinal County (2017–present)[147]

Party officials

* Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2019–present)[148]

Individuals

* Tucker Carlson, host of Tucker Carlson Tonight and conservative political commentator[58]
* Nick Fuentes, far-right livestreamer and white supremacist[149]
* Sean Hannity, host of Hannity and The Sean Hannity Show and conservative political commentator[150]
* Chuck Norris, martial artist and actor[151]
* Jack Posobiec, political activist[149]
* Dave Smith, comedian, podcaster, and co-host of Legion of Skanks[152] (Libertarian)
* Peter Thiel, venture capitalist[59]
* Marc Victor, former Libertarian nominee for Arizona's other Senate seat in 2012[4] (Libertarian)

Labor unions

* National Border Patrol Council[153]

Organizations

* Arizona Republican Party[148]
* Campaign for Working Families[154]
* Center for Arizona Policy[155]
* Club for Growth[51]
* The Conservative Caucus[156]
* FreedomWorks for America[157]
* National Federation of Independent Business[158]
* National Right to Life Committee[159]
* NRA Political Victory Fund[160]
* Political Victory Fund[161]
* Republicans for National Renewal[61]
* Tea Party Express[62]
* Turning Point Action[162]

Rejected by candidate

* Andrew Anglin, neo-Nazi and founder of The Daily Stormer[63][64]

### Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation  | Dates
administered  | Dates
updated  | Mark
Kelly (D)  | Blake
Masters (R)  | Undecided
[f] | Margin

|
|
|
|
|
|

RealClearPolitics[163] | October 30 – November 7, 2022  | November 7, 2022  | 48.0%  | 48.3% | 3.7%  | Masters +0.3
FiveThirtyEight[164] | September 7, 2021 – November 7, 2022  | November 7, 2022  | 48.6% | 47.1%  | 4.3%  | Kelly +1.5
270ToWin[165] | November 3–7, 2022  | November 7, 2022  | 47.9% | 46.6%  | 5.5%  | Kelly +1.3
Average | 48.3% | 47.2%  | 4.5%  | Kelly +1.1

Graphical summary

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

|

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Mark
Kelly (D)  | Blake
Masters (R)  | Marc
Victor (L)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

The Trafalgar Group (R)[166] | November 5–7, 2022  | 1,094 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 47%  | 48% | 1%  | –  | 4%
Data Orbital (R)[167] | November 4–6, 2022  | 550 (LV)  | ± 4.3%  | 48% | 47%  | 2%  | 1%[g] | 3%
Research Co.[168] | November 4–6, 2022  | 450 (LV)  | ± 4.6%  | 49% | 46%  | 2%  | –  | 3%
Data for Progress (D)[169] | November 2–6, 2022  | 1,359 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 49%  | 50% | 2%  | –  | –
Targoz Market Research[170] | November 2–6, 2022  | 560 (LV)  | ± 4.1%  | 50% | 47%  | 2%  | –  | –
KAConsulting (R)[171][G] | November 2–3, 2022  | 501 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 47% | 46%  | –  | 1%  | 6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[172] | November 2, 2022  | 550 (LV)  | ± 4.2%  | 48% | 48% | 2%  | –  | 2%
HighGround Inc.[173] | November 1–2, 2022  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 46% | 45%  | –  | 2%[h] | 6%
Remington Research Group (R)[174] | November 1–2, 2022  | 1,075 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 48% | 47%  | 2%  | –  | 3%
Marist College[175] | October 31 – November 2, 2022  | 1,157 (RV)  | ± 4.1%  | 49% | 45%  | –  | 1%[i] | 8%
1,015 (LV)  | ± 4.3%  | 50% | 47%  | –  | 1%[j] | 2%
Big Data Poll (R)[176] | October 31 – November 2, 2022  | 1,051 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 48%  | 49% | –  | –  | 4%
Patriot Polling (R)[177] | October 30 – November 2, 2022  | 814 (RV)  | –  | 49% | 48%  | –  | –  | 4%
Civiqs[178] | October 29 – November 2, 2022  | 852 (LV)  | ± 4.2%  | 49% | 49% | –  | 2%[k] | 1%
| November 1, 2022  | Victor withdraws from the race and endorses Masters
Emerson College[179] | October 30 – November 1, 2022  | 1,000 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 47%  | 48% | 3%  | 1%[l] | 1%
48% | 48% | 3%  | 1%[m] | –
The Phillips Academy[180] | October 29–30, 2022  | 985 (LV)  | ± 3.1%  | 47% | 47% | 2%  | –  | 5%
Fox News[181] | October 26–30, 2022  | 1,003 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 47% | 45%  | –  | 4%[n] | 5%
Wick Insights (R)[182] | October 26–30, 2022  | 1,122 (LV)  | ± 3.2%  | 49% | 47%  | –  | 3%[o] | 1%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R)[183][E] | October 24–26, 2022  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 47% | 46%  | 3%  | –  | –
OH Predictive Insights[184] | October 24–26, 2022  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 48% | 46%  | 3%  | –  | 3%
Siena College/NYT[185] | October 24–26, 2022  | 604 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 51% | 45%  | 1%  | –  | 3%
BSP Research/Shaw & Co.[186][H] | October 19–26, 2022  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 44% | 40%  | –  | 5%[p] | 11%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[172] | October 24–25, 2022  | 550 (LV)  | ± 4.2%  | 45% | 43%  | 6%  | –  | 6%
co/efficient (R)[187] | October 20–21, 2022  | 1,111 (LV)  | ± 3.1%  | 47% | 45%  | 4%  | –  | 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[188][I] | October 14–18, 2022  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 48% | 45%  | 2%  | <1%[q] | 6%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[189][J] | October 16–17, 2022  | 1,078 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 47% | 46%  | 3%  | –  | 4%
Data for Progress (D)[190] | October 11–17, 2022  | 893 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 47% | 47% | 3%  | –  | 4%
Wick Insights (R)[191] | October 8–14, 2022  | 1,058 (LV)  | ± 3.1%  | 49% | 46%  | –  | 2%[r] | 3%
HighGround Inc.[192][K] | October 12–13, 2022  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.3%  | 42% | 40%  | 5%  | 3%[s] | 10%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[193] | October 11, 2022  | 550 (LV)  | ± 4.2%  | 46% | 42%  | 5%  | –  | 7%
Kurt Jetta (D)[194][L] | October 9–10, 2022  | 894 (RV)  | –  | 54% | 32%  | –  | –  | 15%
551 (LV)  | 55% | 38%  | –  | –  | 7%
Ascend Action (R)[195] | October 8–10, 2022  | 954 (LV)  | ± 3.2%  | 48% | 44%  | –  | 5%[t] | 2%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[196][M] | October 8–10, 2022  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 46% | 43%  | 4%  | –  | 7%
OH Predictive Insights[197] | October 4–6, 2022  | 674 (LV)  | ± 3.8%  | 46% | 33%  | 15%  | –  | 7%
Big Data Poll (R)[198] | October 2–5, 2022  | 970 (LV)  | ± 3.1%  | 46% | 45%  | 2%  | –  | 7%
YouGov/CBS News[199] | September 30 – October 4, 2022  | 1,164 (RV)  | ± 3.8%  | 51% | 48%  | –  | –  | 1%
CNN/SSRS[200] | September 26 – October 2, 2022  | 900 (RV)  | ± 4.4%  | 52% | 42%  | –  | 7%[u] | –
795 (LV)  | ± 4.6%  | 51% | 45%  | –  | 4%[v] | –
Fox News[201] | September 22–26, 2022  | 1,008 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 46% | 40%  | –  | 6%[w] | 9%
Suffolk University[202] | September 21–25, 2022  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 49% | 42%  | 2%  | –  | 7%
Marist College[203] | September 19–22, 2022  | 1,260 (RV)  | ± 3.6%  | 51% | 41%  | –  | –  | 8%
1,076 (LV)  | ± 3.9%  | 50% | 45%  | –  | –  | 5%
Data for Progress (D)[204] | September 15–19, 2022  | 768 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 48% | 47%  | 2%  | –  | 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[205] | September 14–17, 2022  | 1080 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 47% | 45%  | 3%  | –  | 5%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[206] | September 8–15, 2022  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 50% | 42%  | 4%  | –  | 4%
52% | 45%  | –  | –  | 3%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[196][M] | September 6–11, 2022  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 50% | 40%  | 6%  | –  | 5%
Kurt Jetta (D)[207][L] | September 9–10, 2022  | 972 (RV)  | ± 3.5%  | 53% | 32%  | –  | –  | 15%
563 (LV)  | 55% | 35%  | –  | –  | 9%
OH Predictive Insights[208] | September 6–9, 2022  | 654 (LV)  | ± 3.8%  | 47% | 35%  | 6%  | –  | 12%
Emerson College[209] | September 6–7, 2022  | 627 (LV)  | ± 3.9%  | 47% | 45%  | –  | 3%[x] | 5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[210] | September 6–7, 2022  | 550 (LV)  | ± 4.2%  | 45% | 39%  | 4%  | –  | 12%
Echelon Insights[211] | August 31 – September 7, 2022  | 773 (RV)  | ±4.5%  | 52% | 37%  | –  | –  | 11%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[212] | August 24–27, 2022  | 1,074 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 48% | 44%  | 4%  | –  | 4%
RMG Research[213] | August 16–22, 2022  | 750 (LV)  | ± 3.6%  | 50% | 43%  | –  | –  | 7%
Fox News[214] | August 12–16, 2022  | 1,012 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 50% | 42%  | –  | 2%  | 6%
Kurt Jetta (D)[215][L] | August 4–8, 2022  | 1,107 (A)  | ± 2.9%  | 48% | 34%  | –  | –  | 19%
877 (RV)  | ± 3.3%  | 50% | 34%  | –  | –  | 16%
512 (LV)  | ± 4.3%  | 54% | 40%  | –  | –  | 7%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[216][N] | August 1–2, 2022  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 49% | 44%  | –  | –  | 7%
Beacon Research (D)[217][O] | July 5–20, 2022  | 802 (RV)  | ± 3.5%  | 49% | 34%  | –  | 1%  | 13%
504 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 51% | 39%  | –  | 2%  | 8%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[218][A] | July 13–14, 2022  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 49% | 44%  | –  | –  | 7%
Change Research (D)[219][P] | June 24–27, 2022  | 705 (LV)  | ± 3.7%  | 48% | 39%  | –  | –  | 13%
Blueprint Polling (D)[220] | May 12–16, 2022  | 608 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 49% | 32%  | –  | –  | 19%
OH Predictive Insights[96] | September 7–12, 2021  | 882 (RV)  | ± 3.3%  | 44% | 35%  | –  | –  | 21%

Hypothetical polling

Mark Kelly vs. Mark Brnovich

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Mark
Kelly (D)  | Mark
Brnovich (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Beacon Research (D)[217][O] | July 5–20, 2022  | 802 (RV)  | ± 3.5%  | 49% | 35%  | 1%  | 11%
504 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 51% | 40%  | 2%  | 7%
Blueprint Polling (D)[220] | May 12–16, 2022  | 608 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 50% | 33%  | –  | 18%
Data for Progress (D)[221] | January 21–24, 2022  | 1,469 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 49% | 47%  | –  | 4%
OH Predictive Insights[96] | September 7–12, 2021  | 882 (RV)  | ± 3.3%  | 43% | 39%  | –  | 18%
OH Predictive Insights[222] | May 3–5, 2021  | 935 (RV)  | ± 3.2%  | 46% | 36%  | –  | 18%

Mark Kelly vs. Jim Lamon

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Mark
Kelly (D)  | Jim
Lamon (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Beacon Research (D)[217][O] | July 5–20, 2022  | 802 (RV)  | ± 3.5%  | 48% | 34%  | 2%  | 14%
504 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 50% | 40%  | 2%  | 9%
Change Research (D)[219][P] | June 24–27, 2022  | 705 (LV)  | ± 3.7%  | 47% | 41%  | –  | 12%
Blueprint Polling (D)[220] | May 12–16, 2022  | 608 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 48% | 34%  | –  | 18%
OH Predictive Insights[96] | September 7–12, 2021  | 882 (RV)  | ± 3.3%  | 43% | 36%  | –  | 21%

Mark Kelly vs. Michael McGuire

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Mark
Kelly (D)  | Michael
McGuire (R)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

OH Predictive Insights[96] | September 7–12, 2021  | 882 (RV)  | ± 3.3%  | 44% | 37%  | 19%
OH Predictive Insights[222] | May 3–5, 2021  | 935 (RV)  | ± 3.2%  | 44% | 35%  | 21%

Mark Kelly vs. Andy Biggs

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Mark
Kelly (D)  | Andy
Biggs (R)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

OH Predictive Insights[222] | May 3–5, 2021  | 935 (RV)  | ± 3.2%  | 47% | 36%  | 18%

Mark Kelly vs. Doug Ducey

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Mark
Kelly (D)  | Doug
Ducey (R)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

Data for Progress (D)[221] | January 21–24, 2022  | 1,469 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 50% | 47%  | 4%

Mark Kelly vs. Kelli Ward

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Mark
Kelly (D)  | Kelli
Ward (R)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

OH Predictive Insights[222] | May 3–5, 2021  | 935 (RV)  | ± 3.2%  | 47% | 36%  | 18%

Mark Kelly vs. Kari Lake

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Mark
Kelly (D)  | Kari
Lake (R)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

OH Predictive Insights[222] | May 3–5, 2021  | 935 (RV)  | ± 3.2%  | 46% | 35%  | 19%

Mark Kelly vs. Jack McCain

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Mark
Kelly (D)  | Jack
McCain (R)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

OH Predictive Insights[222] | May 3–5, 2021  | 935 (RV)  | ± 3.2%  | 43% | 29%  | 28%

Mark Kelly vs. Kimberly Yee

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Mark
Kelly (D)  | Kimberly
Yee (R)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

OH Predictive Insights[222] | May 3–5, 2021  | 935 (RV)  | ± 3.2%  | 45% | 35%  | 19%

Mark Kelly vs. generic Republican

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Mark
Kelly (D)  | Generic
Republican  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

OH Predictive Insights[223] | May 9–16, 2022  | 938 (RV)  | ± 3.3%  | 40% | 39%  | –  | 21%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[224] | March 26–27, 2022  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 45% | 41%  | 2%  | 12%
OH Predictive Insights[225] | March 7–15, 2022  | 753 (RV)  | ± 3.6%  | 37%  | 39% | –  | 24%
Change Research (D)[219][P] | March 2022  | – (LV)  | –  | 43%  | 46% | –  | 11%
OH Predictive Insights[92] | January 11–13, 2022  | 855 (RV)  | ± 3.4%  | 42% | 38%  | –  | 19%
OH Predictive Insights[93] | November 1–8, 2021  | 713 (RV)  | ± 3.7%  | 40% | 39%  | –  | 21%

Mark Kelly vs. generic opponent

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Mark
Kelly (D)  | Generic
Opponent  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

Fabrizio Lee (R)[218][A] | July 13–14, 2022  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 45%  | 48% | 7%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Generic
Democrat  | Generic
Republican  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

Fabrizio Lee (R)[218][A] | July 13–14, 2022  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 46% | 46% | 8%

### Results

[edit]

2022 United States Senate election in Arizona[226] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %  | ±%

|
|
|
|

| Democratic | Mark Kelly (incumbent)  | 1,322,027  | 51.39%  | +0.23%
| Republican | Blake Masters | 1,196,308  | 46.51%  | −2.30%
| Libertarian | Marc Victor (withdrawn) | 53,762  | 2.09%  | N/A
| Write-in | 197  | 0.01%  | –0.02%
Total votes  | 2,572,294  | 100.0%  |
| Democratic hold

#### By county

[edit]

By county

| County  | Mark Kelly
Democratic | Blake Masters
Republican | Marc Victor
Libertarian | Write-in | Margin  | Total
votes

|
|
|
|
|
|

#  | %  | #  | %  | #  | %  | #  | %  | #  | %
Apache | 18,005 | 67.39 | 8,163  | 30.55  | 549  | 2.05  | 2  | 0.01  | 9,842  | 36.84  | 26,719
Cochise | 20,002  | 42.57  | 25,539 | 54.35 | 1,383  | 2.94  | 67  | 0.14  | -5,537  | -11.78  | 46,991
Coconino | 35,149 | 63.84 | 18,697  | 33.96  | 1,199  | 2.18  | 13  | 0.02  | 16,452  | 29.88  | 55,058
Gila | 7,984  | 35.42  | 13,958 | 61.91 | 601  | 2.67  | 1  | 0.00  | -5,974  | -26.50  | 22,544
Graham | 3,243  | 29.79  | 7,388 | 67.87 | 255  | 2.34  | 0  | 0.00  | -4,145  | -38.08  | 10,886
Greenlee | 970  | 39.40  | 1,392 | 56.54 | 100  | 4.06  | 0  | 0.00  | -422  | -17.14  | 2,462
La Paz | 1,711  | 30.94  | 3,656 | 66.11 | 160  | 2.89  | 3  | 0.05  | -1,945  | -35.17  | 5,530
Maricopa | 809,573 | 52.19 | 710,491  | 45.80  | 31,099  | 2.00  | 63  | 0.00  | 99,082  | 6.39  | 1,551,226
Mohave | 21,040  | 25.69  | 58,737 | 71.72 | 2,117  | 2.58  | 5  | 0.01  | -37,697  | -46.03  | 81,899
Navajo | 18,724  | 46.08  | 20,970 | 51.61 | 927  | 2.28  | 9  | 0.02  | -2,246  | -5.53  | 40,630
Pima | 248,230 | 61.95 | 144,936  | 36.17  | 7,544  | 1.88  | 15  | 0.00  | 103,294  | 25.78  | 400,725
Pinal | 62,009  | 42.92  | 78,820 | 54.55 | 3,650  | 2.53  | 7  | 0.00  | -16,811  | -11.64  | 144,486
Santa Cruz | 8,988 | 68.16 | 3,892  | 29.52  | 304  | 2.31  | 2  | 0.02  | 5,096  | 38.65  | 13,186
Yavapai | 45,258  | 36.60  | 75,752 | 61.26 | 2,633  | 2.13  | 8  | 0.01  | -30,494  | -24.66  | 123,651
Yuma | 21,141  | 45.66  | 23,917 | 51.66 | 1,241  | 2.68  | 2  | 0.00  | -2,776  | -6.00  | 46,301
Totals  | 1,322,027 | 51.39 | 1,196,308  | 46.51  | 53,762  | 2.09  | 197  | 0.01  | 125,719 | 4.89 | 2,572,294

#### By congressional district

[edit]

Kelly won 5 out of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[227]

District  | Kelly  | Masters  | Representative

|
|
|

1st | 52% | 46%  | David Schweikert
2nd | 46%  | 51% | Tom O'Halleran (117th Congress)
Eli Crane (118th Congress)
3rd | 76% | 21%  | Ruben Gallego
4th | 57% | 41%  | Greg Stanton
5th | 44%  | 54% | Andy Biggs
6th | 54% | 44%  | Ann Kirkpatrick (117th Congress)
Juan Ciscomani (118th Congress)
7th | 68% | 30%  | Raúl Grijalva
8th | 46%  | 52% | Debbie Lesko
9th | 38%  | 60% | Paul Gosar

## See also

[edit]

* 2022 United States Senate elections
* 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
* 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
* 2022 Arizona elections

## Notes

[edit]

1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
3. ^ a b Paveza with <1%
4. ^ Response without candidates' job titles, besides 'Major General' for McGuire
5. ^ Response with candidates' job titles
6. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
7. ^ "Refused" with 1%
8. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
9. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
10. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
11. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
12. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
13. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
14. ^ "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
15. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
16. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
17. ^ "Other" with <1%; "Refused" with <1%
18. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
19. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
20. ^ "Another candidate" with 5%
21. ^ "Neither" with 5%; "Other" with 2%
22. ^ "Neither" with 3%; "Other" with 1%
23. ^ "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%
24. ^ "Someone else" with 3%

Partisan clients

1. ^ a b c d e f g This poll was sponsored by Saving Arizona, which supports Blake Masters
2. ^ This poll was sponsored by Kari Lake's campaign for governor
3. ^ This poll was sponsored by Lamon's campaign
4. ^ This poll was sponsored by Advancing Arizona Forward, which supports Mark Brnovich
5. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
6. ^ This poll was sponsored by Andy Biggs's campaign committee
7. ^ Poll conducted for Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization.
8. ^ Poll conducted for Univision.
9. ^ Poll conducted for The Federalist, a conservative online magazine.
10. ^ This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire
11. ^ This poll was sponsored by Arizona's Family
12. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Masters
13. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by the Sentinel Action Fund, which supports Masters
14. ^ This poll was sponsored by America Next
15. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
16. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Future Majority and America’s Future Majority Fund

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[edit]

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## External links

[edit]

Official campaign websites

* Mark Kelly (D) for Senate
* Blake Masters (R) for Senate

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* 1994
* 1996
* 1998
* 2000
* 2002
* 2004
* 2006
* 2008
* 2010
* 2012
* 2014
* 2016
* 2018
* 2020
* 2022
* 2024
* 2026

See also: Political party strength in Arizona

* v
* t
* e

(2021 <-)  2022 United States elections (-> 2023)

U.S.
Senate|

* Alabama
* Alaska
* Arizona
* Arkansas
* California
* Colorado
* Connecticut
* Florida
* Georgia
* Hawaii
* Idaho
* Illinois
* Indiana
* Iowa
* Kansas
* Kentucky
* Louisiana
* Maryland
* Missouri
* Nevada
* New Hampshire
* New York
* North Carolina
* North Dakota
* Ohio
* Oklahoma
* Oklahoma (special)
* Oregon
* Pennsylvania
* South Carolina
* South Dakota
* Utah
* Vermont
* Washington
* Wisconsin

U.S.
House
(election
ratings)|

* Alabama
* Alaska
* at-large sp
* American Samoa
* Arizona
* Arkansas
* California
* 22nd sp
* Colorado
* Connecticut
* Delaware
* District of Columbia
* Florida
* 20th sp
* Georgia
* Guam
* Hawaii
* Idaho
* Illinois
* 1st
* Indiana
* 2nd sp
* Iowa
* Kansas
* Kentucky
* Louisiana
* Maine
* Maryland
* Massachusetts
* Michigan
* Minnesota
* 1st sp
* Mississippi
* Missouri
* Montana
* Nebraska
* 1st sp
* Nevada
* New Hampshire
* New Jersey
* New Mexico
* New York
* 19th sp
* 23rd sp
* North Carolina
* North Dakota
* Northern Mariana Islands
* Ohio
* Oklahoma
* Oregon
* Pennsylvania
* Rhode Island
* South Carolina
* South Dakota
* Tennessee
* Texas
* 34th sp
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Utah
* Vermont
* Virginia
* Washington
* West Virginia
* Wisconsin
* Wyoming

Governors|

* Alabama
* Lt. Gov
* Alaska
* Arizona
* Arkansas
* Lt. Gov
* California
* Lt. Gov
* Colorado
* Connecticut
* Florida
* Georgia
* Lt. Gov
* Guam
* Hawaii
* Idaho
* Lt. Gov
* Illinois
* Iowa
* Kansas
* Maine
* Maryland
* Massachusetts
* Michigan
* Minnesota
* Nebraska
* Nevada
* Lt. Gov
* New Hampshire
* New Mexico
* New York
* Northern Mariana Islands
* Ohio
* Oklahoma
* Lt. Gov
* Oregon
* Pennsylvania
* Rhode Island
* Lt. Gov
* South Carolina
* South Dakota
* Tennessee
* Texas
* Lt. Gov
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Vermont
* Lt. Gov
* Wisconsin
* Wyoming

Attorneys
general|

* Alabama
* Arizona
* Arkansas
* California
* Colorado
* Connecticut
* Delaware
* District of Columbia
* Florida
* Georgia
* Guam
* Idaho
* Illinois
* Iowa
* Kansas
* Maryland
* Massachusetts
* Michigan
* Minnesota
* Nebraska
* Nevada
* New Mexico
* New York
* North Dakota
* Northern Mariana Islands
* Ohio
* Oklahoma
* Rhode Island
* South Carolina
* South Dakota
* Texas
* Vermont
* Wisconsin

Secretaries
of state|

* Alabama
* Arizona
* Arkansas
* California
* Colorado
* Connecticut
* Georgia
* Idaho
* Illinois
* Indiana
* Iowa
* Kansas
* Massachusetts
* Michigan
* Minnesota
* Nebraska
* Nevada
* New Mexico
* North Dakota
* Ohio
* Rhode Island
* South Carolina
* South Dakota
* Vermont
* Washington (special)
* Wisconsin
* Wyoming

State
treasurers|

* Alabama
* Arizona
* Arkansas
* California
* Colorado
* Connecticut
* Delaware
* Florida
* Idaho
* Illinois
* Indiana
* Iowa
* Kansas
* Maryland
* Massachusetts
* Nebraska
* Nevada
* New Mexico
* New York
* Ohio
* Oklahoma
* Rhode Island
* South Carolina
* South Dakota
* Utah (special)
* Texas
* Vermont
* Wisconsin
* Wyoming

Other
statewide
elections|

* Arizona
* Corporation Commission
* State Superintendent
* Arkansas
* Land Commissioner
* Auditor
* California
* Board of Equalization
* Controller
* Insurance Commissioner
* State Superintendent
* Colorado
* Board of Education
* University Regents
* Connecticut
* Comptroller
* Florida
* Agriculture Commissioner
* Georgia
* Agriculture Commissioner
* Insurance Commissioner
* Labor Commissioner
* State Superintendent
* Illinois
* Comptroller
* Indiana
* Auditor
* Minnesota
* Auditor
* Missouri
* Auditor
* Nevada
* Controller
* New Hampshire
* Executive Council
* New Mexico
* Auditor
* Land Commissioner
* North Carolina
* Judicial
* Ohio
* Auditor
* Supreme Court
* Oklahoma
* Auditor
* Corporation Commissioner
* Labor Commissioner
* State Superintendent
* Oregon
* Labor Commissioner
* Texas
* Agriculture Commissioner
* Appeals Court
* Board of Education
* Land Commissioner
* Railroad Commissioner
* Supreme Court
* Vermont
* Auditor

State
legislatures|

* Alabama
* House
* Senate
* Alaska
* House
* Senate
* Arizona
* House
* Senate
* Arkansas
* House
* Senate
* California
* Assembly
* Senate
* Colorado
* House
* Senate
* Connecticut
* House
* Senate
* Delaware
* House
* Senate
* Florida
* House
* Senate
* Georgia
* House
* Senate
* Hawaii
* House
* Senate
* Idaho
* House
* Senate
* Illinois
* House
* Senate
* Indiana
* House
* Senate
* Iowa
* House
* Senate
* Kansas
* House
* Kentucky
* House
* Senate
* Maine
* House
* Senate
* Maryland
* House
* Senate
* Massachusetts
* House
* Senate
* Michigan
* House
* Senate
* Minnesota
* House
* Senate
* Missouri
* House
* Senate
* Montana
* House
* Senate
* Nebraska
* Nevada
* Assembly
* Senate
* New Hampshire
* House
* Senate
* New Mexico
* House
* New York
* Assembly
* Senate
* North Carolina
* House
* Senate
* North Dakota
* House
* Senate
* Ohio
* House
* Senate
* Oklahoma
* House
* Senate
* Oregon
* House
* Senate
* Pennsylvania
* House
* Senate
* Rhode Island
* House
* Senate
* South Carolina
* House
* South Dakota
* House
* Senate
* Tennessee
* House
* Senate
* Texas
* House
* Senate
* Utah
* House
* Senate
* Vermont
* House
* Senate
* Washington
* House
* Senate
* West Virginia
* House
* Senate
* Wisconsin
* Assembly
* Senate
* Wyoming
* House
* Senate

Mayors|

* Anaheim, CA
* Auburn, AL
* Austin, TX
* Charlotte, NC
* Columbia, MO
* Denton, TX
* Gainesville, FL
* Greensboro, NC
* Henderson, NV
* Irvine, CA
* Laredo, TX
* Lexington, KY
* Little Rock, AR
* Long Beach, CA
* Los Angeles, CA
* Louisville, KY
* Lubbock, TX
* Milwaukee, WI (special)
* Newark, NJ
* Newport News, VA
* Norman, OK
* North Las Vegas, NV
* Oakland, CA
* Oklahoma City, OK
* Pensacola, FL
* Providence, RI
* Raleigh, NC
* Reno, NV
* San Bernardino, CA
* San Jose, CA
* Santa Ana, CA
* Shreveport, LA
* Tallahassee, FL
* Washington, DC

Local|

* Anne Arundel County, MD
* Baltimore County, MD
* Cook County, IL
* Cuyahoga County, OH
* Frederick County, MD
* Harford County, MD
* Hennepin County, MN
* Howard County, MD
* Los Angeles, CA
* Los Angeles County, CA
* Maricopa County, AZ
* Montgomery County, MD
* Navajo Nation
* Orange County, CA
* Board of Supervisors
* District Attorney
* Philadelphia, PA
* Portland, OR
* Prince George's County, MD
* San Diego, CA
* San Francisco, CA
* Board of Education (recall)
* District Attorney
* recall
* special
* Shelby County, TN
* Tulsa, OK
* Washington, DC
* Wicomico County, MD

Statewide|

* Alabama
* Alaska
* American Samoa
* Arizona
* Arkansas
* California
* Colorado
* Connecticut
* Delaware
* Florida
* Georgia
* Guam
* Hawaii
* Idaho
* Illinois
* Indiana
* Iowa
* Kansas
* Kentucky
* Louisiana
* Maine
* Maryland
* Massachusetts
* Michigan
* Minnesota
* Mississippi
* Missouri
* Montana
* Nebraska
* Nevada
* New Hampshire
* New Jersey
* New Mexico
* New York
* North Carolina
* North Dakota
* Northern Mariana Islands
* Ohio
* Oklahoma
* Oregon
* Pennsylvania
* Rhode Island
* South Carolina
* South Dakota
* Tennessee
* Texas
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Utah
* Vermont
* Virginia
* Washington
* West Virginia
* Wisconsin
* Wyoming

Other|

* ballot measures

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