2022 United States Senate election in Washington

Not to be confused with 2022 Washington State Senate election.

2022 United States Senate election in Washington

* * *

| <- 2016 | November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08) | 2028 ->

|
|

|  |  |

|
|

Candidate  | Patty Murray | Tiffany Smiley
Party  | Democratic | Republican
Popular vote  | 1,741,827 | 1,299,322
Percentage  | 57.15% | 42.63%

* * *

County results

Congressional district results

Precinct results

Murray: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
Smiley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
Tie: 40–50% 50% No data

* * *

| U.S. senator before election

Patty Murray
Democratic

| Elected U.S. senator

Patty Murray
Democratic

|

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* v
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* e

The 2022 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington. Murray had won re-election to a fifth term in 2016 with 59% of the vote.[1]

Because Washington has a blanket primary system, parties did not nominate their own candidates to run in the general election. Instead, every candidate appeared on the same ballot, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two candidates in the August 2 nonpartisan blanket primary then advanced to the general election. Murray received 52.2% of the primary vote and advanced to face Republican Tiffany Smiley.[2]

Although Washington has been a reliably blue state for over 30 years, many polls showed that Murray only had a narrow lead over Smiley, and some polls had Smiley within the margin of error. A couple of late polls had the two candidates tied; such polls caused most pundits to downgrade their forecast from "safe Democratic" to "likely Democratic", and Republicans believed that Smiley had a chance of pulling off an upset.[3] Despite the predictions of a close race, Murray defeated Smiley and won re-election to a sixth term by a 14.5-point margin. Although this was a significantly larger margin of victory for Murray than what was expected, it was fairly consistent with Washington's partisan lean.[4] Smiley conceded the following day. Despite her loss, she made significant gains in several counties, particularly in the Southwestern and Eastern parts of the state.[5]

Following the election, Murray was elected president pro tempore for the 118th Congress, becoming the first woman to hold the role.[6]

## Primary election

[edit]

### Democratic candidates

[edit]

#### Advanced to general

[edit]

* Patty Murray, incumbent U.S. Senator and Assistant Democratic Leader[1][7]

#### Eliminated in primary

[edit]

* Pano Churchill, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[7]
* Sam Cusmir[7]
* Ravin Pierre, aerospace engineer and data scientist[7]
* Mohammed Said, physician and perennial candidate[7]
* Bryan Solstin, aerospace engineer and software developer[7]

#### Withdrawn before primary

[edit]

* David Ishii
* Nicolaust Sleister
* Robert Kirby

### Republican candidates

[edit]

#### Advanced to general

[edit]

* Tiffany Smiley, nurse[8][7]

#### Eliminated in primary

[edit]

* John Guenther, state employee[7]
* Bill Hirt, perennial candidate[7]

#### Withdrawn before primary

[edit]

* Bob Hagglund, IT professional
* Isaac Holyk, CEO of a software development Company

### Third party and independent candidates

[edit]

#### Eliminated in primary

[edit]

* Thor Amundson (independent), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018 and governor in 2020[7]
* Jon Butler (no party preference)[7]
* Henry Clay Dennison (Socialist Workers), perennial candidate[7]
* Dan Phan Doan (no party preference)[7]
* Martin D. Hash (no party preference)[7]
* Chuck Jackson (independent), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012 and 2016[7]
* Leon Lawson (Trump Republican), candidate for governor in 2020[7]
* Naz Paul (independent), real estate developer[7]
* Dave Saulibio (JFK Republican), U.S. Army veteran, candidate for Washington's 5th congressional district in 2018 and Washington's 8th congressional district in 2020[7]

#### Withdrawn before primary

[edit]

* Mfumu Metamorphosis Mpiana
* Larry Hussey

### Endorsements

[edit]

Patty Murray (D)

Organizations

* Council for a Livable World[9]
* EMILY's List[10]
* End Citizens United[11]
* Feminist Majority PAC[12]
* Giffords[13]
* Jewish Dems[14]
* King County Democratic Party[15]
* League of Conservation Voters[16]
* Let America Vote[11]
* NARAL Pro-Choice America[17]
* National Women's Political Caucus[18]
* Natural Resources Defense Council[19]
* Population Connection Action Fund[20]
* Sierra Club[21]
* Women's Political Committee[22]

Labor unions

* Service Employees International Union Local 775[23]
* Washington AFL–CIO[24]

Newspapers

* The Seattle Times[25]
* The Stranger[26]

Tiffany Smiley (R)

Executive Branch officials

* Nikki Haley, United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018) and former governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[27]

U.S. Senators

* Joni Ernst, U.S. Senator from Iowa (2015–present)[28]
* Rick Scott, U.S Senator from Florida (2019–present) and former governor of Florida (2011–2019)[29]

U.S. Representatives

* Doc Hastings, former U.S. Representative from Washington's 4th congressional district (1995–2015)[30]
* Cathy McMorris Rodgers, U.S. Representative from Washington's 5th congressional district (2005–2025)[31]
* Elise Stefanik, U.S. Representative from New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present)[32]

Individuals

* John Stockton, former NBA player[33]

Organizations

* Benton County Republican Party[34]
* King County Republican Party[35]
* Stand for America PAC[36]
* Washington State Republican Party[37]
* Winning For Women PAC[38]

### Results

[edit]

Blanket primary results by county

Murray

* 30–40%

* 40–50%

* 50–60%

* 60–70%

* 70–80%

Smiley

* 30–40%

* 40–50%

* 50–60%

* 60–70%

Blanket primary election results[39][40] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Democratic | Patty Murray (incumbent)  | 1,002,811  | 52.22%
| Republican | Tiffany Smiley  | 646,917  | 33.69%
| Trump Republican  | Leon Lawson  | 59,134  | 3.08%
| Republican | John Guenther  | 55,426  | 2.89%
| Democratic | Ravin Pierre  | 22,172  | 1.15%
| JFK Republican  | Dave Saulibio  | 19,341  | 1.01%
| Independent | Naz Paul  | 18,858  | 0.98%
| Republican | Bill Hirt  | 15,276  | 0.80%
| Democratic | Mohammad Hassan Said  | 13,995  | 0.73%
| Socialist Workers | Henry Clay Dennison  | 13,901  | 0.72%
| Democratic | Dr Pano Churchill  | 11,859  | 0.62%
| Democratic | Bryan Solstin  | 9,627  | 0.50%
| Independent | Charlie (Chuck) Jackson  | 8,604  | 0.45%
| Independent | Jon Butler  | 5,413  | 0.28%
| Independent | Thor Amundson  | 5,133  | 0.27%
| No party preference | Martin D. Hash  | 4,725  | 0.25%
| No party preference | Dan Phan Doan  | 3,049  | 0.16%
| Democratic | Sam Cusmir  | 2,688  | 0.14%
| Write-in | 1,511  | 0.08%
Total votes  | 1,920,440  | 100.0%

## General election

[edit]

### Debates

[edit]

Two debates were held, the first on October 23 at Gonzaga University.[41] The second was town hall-style forum on October 30 in the KIRO-TV studio in Seattle.[42]

Murray's campaign declined an invitation to a scheduled debate on October 25 at Seattle University.

### Predictions

[edit]

Source  | Ranking  | As of

|
|

The Cook Political Report[43] | Likely D  | October 18, 2022
Inside Elections[44] | Likely D  | July 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] | Likely D  | October 19, 2022
Politico[46] | Lean D  | November 3, 2022
RCP[47] | Tossup  | October 30, 2022
Fox News[48] | Likely D  | November 1, 2022
DDHQ[49] | Likely D  | September 12, 2022
538[50] | Likely D  | October 19, 2022
The Economist[51] | Likely D  | September 7, 2022

### Post-primary endorsements

[edit]

Patty Murray (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

* Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States (2021–2025), and former U.S. Senator from California (2017–2021)[52]

Labor unions

* National Education Association[53]

Newspapers

* The Olympian[54]
* Tacoma News Tribune[55]
* Tri-City Herald[56]

Tiffany Smiley (R)

U.S. Senators

* Marsha Blackburn, U.S. Senator from Tennessee (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative from Tennessee's 7th congressional district (2003–2019)[57][58]
* Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas (2015–present) and former U.S. Representative from Arkansas's 4th congressional district (2013–2015)[59][60]
* Steve Daines, U.S. Senator from Montana (2015-present) and former U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district (2013-2015)
* Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2013–present) and former U.S. Representative from South Carolina's 1st congressional district (2011-2013)[58]

Governors

* Larry Hogan, 62nd governor of Maryland (2015–2023)[61]
* Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota (2019–2025), and former U.S. Representative from South Dakota's at-large congressional district (2011–2019)[62]

Organizations

* Log Cabin Republicans[63]

### Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation  | Dates
administered  | Dates
updated  | Patty
Murray (D)  | Tiffany
Smiley (R)  | Undecided
[a] | Margin

|
|
|
|
|
|

Real Clear Politics[64] | October 14–31, 2022  | November 3, 2022  | 49.3% | 46.3%  | 4.4%  | Murray +3.0
FiveThirtyEight[65] | May 25, 2021 – November 8, 2022  | November 7, 2022  | 49.6% | 44.9%  | 6.5%  | Murray +4.7
270ToWin[66] | October 21 – November 1, 2022  | November 7, 2022  | 49.5% | 44.5%  | 6.0%  | Murray +4.3
Average | 49.5% | 45.2%  | 5.3%  | Murray +4.3

Graphical summary

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

|

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Patty
Murray (D)  | Tiffany
Smiley (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Moore Information Group (R)[67][A] | November 3–5, 2022  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 47% | 47% | –  | 5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[68][B] | October 31, 2022  | 550 (LV)  | ± 4.2%  | 48% | 46%  | –  | 6%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[69] | October 25–28, 2022  | 1,207 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 49% | 48%  | –  | 2%
Triton Polling & Research[70][C] | October 26–27, 2022  | 506 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 51% | 45%  | –  | 4%
Moore Information Group (R)[71][A] | October 20–22, 2022  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 46% | 46% | –  | 8%
KAConsulting (R)[72][D] | October 20–22, 2022  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 48% | 42%  | 4%[c] | 6%
co/efficient (R)[73] | October 19–20, 2022  | 1,181 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 48% | 45%  | –  | 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[74][E] | October 19–20, 2022  | 782 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 52% | 42%  | –  | 6%
SurveyUSA[75] | October 14–19, 2022  | 589 (LV)  | ± 5.0%  | 49% | 41%  | –  | 10%
Civiqs[76] | October 15–18, 2022  | 698 (LV)  | ± 4.5%  | 55% | 41%  | 3%[d] | 2%
Emerson College[77] | September 29 – October 1, 2022  | 782 (LV)  | ± 3.4%  | 51% | 42%  | –  | 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[78] | September 27–28, 2022  | 770 (V)  | ± 3.5%  | 52% | 40%  | –  | 8%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[79][F] | September 20–27, 2022  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 46% | 42%  | 5%[e] | 6%
Strategies 360[80] | September 22–25, 2022  | 500 (RV)  | ± 4.4%  | 50% | 36%  | –  | 14%
370 (LV)  | ± 5.1%  | 52% | 40%  | –  | 8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[81] | September 21–24, 2022  | 1,091 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 49% | 47%  | –  | 5%
Elway Research[82] | September 12–15, 2022  | 403 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 50% | 37%  | –  | 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[83] | September 6–7, 2022  | 620 (V)  | ± 3.0%  | 48% | 39%  | –  | 13%
Moore Information Group (R)[71][A] | September 2022  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 48% | 44%  | –  | 8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[84] | August 30 – September 1, 2022  | 1,087 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 49% | 46%  | –  | 5%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[85] | August 15–17, 2022  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 49% | 43%  | –  | 8%
Elway Research[86] | July 7–11, 2022  | 400 (RV)  | ± 4.5%  | 53% | 33%  | –  | 15%
SurveyUSA[87] | July 6–10, 2022  | 596 (LV)  | ± 5.0%  | 51% | 33%  | –  | 16%
The Tarrance Group (R)[88][G] | June 14–19, 2022  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 48% | 43%  | –  | 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[89][E] | June 1–2, 2022  | 1,039 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 51% | 40%  | –  | 8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[90][E] | February 17–18, 2022  | 700 (LV)  | ± 3.7%  | 50% | 41%  | –  | 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[91][E] | November 10–11, 2021  | 909 (LV)  | ± 3.3%  | 50% | 37%  | –  | 13%
SurveyUSA[92] | October 25–28, 2021  | 542 (RV)  | ± 5.2%  | 49% | 31%  | –  | 20%
Public Policy Polling (D)[93][E] | May 25–26, 2021  | 992 (LV)  | ± 3.1%  | 53% | 37%  | –  | 10%

Hypothetical polling

Patty Murray vs. generic Republican

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Patty
Murray (D)  | Generic
Republican  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

Elway Research[94] | December 26–28, 2021  | 400 (RV)  | ± 5.0%  | 42% | 39%  | 19%

Patty Murray vs. generic opponent

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Patty
Murray (D)  | Generic
Opponent  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

McLaughlin & Associates (R)[85] | August 15–17, 2022  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 44% | 44% | 12%

### Results

[edit]

2022 United States Senate election in Washington[95] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %  | ±%

|
|
|
|

| Democratic | Patty Murray (incumbent)  | 1,741,827  | 57.15%  | −1.68%
| Republican | Tiffany Smiley  | 1,299,322  | 42.63%  | +1.77%
| Write-in | 6,751  | 0.22%  | -0.09%
Total votes  | 3,047,900  | 100.0%  |
| Democratic hold

#### By county

[edit]

By county

| County[96] | Patty Murray

Democratic

| Tiffany Smiley

Republican

| Write-In  | Total

|
|
|
|

%  | #  | %  | #  | %  | #
Adams | 23.46%  | 969 | 76.25% | 3,150 | 0.29%  | 12 | 4,131
Asotin | 35.27%  | 3,181 | 64.58% | 5,824 | 0.14%  | 13 | 9,018
Benton | 33.68%  | 25,513 | 66.15% | 50,108 | 0.17%  | 128 | 75,749
Chelan | 41.94%  | 14,373 | 57.87% | 19,833 | 0.20%  | 67 | 34,273
Clallam | 51.60% | 20,784 | 48.17%  | 19,401 | 0.23%  | 94 | 40,279
Clark | 51.09% | 105,058 | 48.76%  | 100,260 | 0.14%  | 298 | 205,616
Columbia | 27.17%  | 592 | 72.28% | 1,575 | 0.55%  | 12 | 2,179
Cowlitz | 38.80%  | 17,439 | 61.07% | 27,446 | 0.13%  | 57 | 44,942
Douglas | 32.73%  | 5,275 | 67.05% | 10,086 | 0.22%  | 36 | 16,117
Ferry | 31.04%  | 1,060 | 68.76% | 2,348 | 0.20%  | 7 | 3,415
Franklin | 31.61%  | 7,022 | 68.31% | 15,174 | 0.08%  | 18 | 22,214
Garfield | 23.85%  | 307 | 75.91% | 977 | 0.23%  | 3 | 1,287
Grant | 26.83%  | 7,221 | 73.03% | 19,655 | 0.13%  | 36 | 26,912
Grays Harbor | 46.26%  | 13,600 | 53.46% | 15,718 | 0.28%  | 81 | 29,399
Island | 55.00% | 23,680 | 44.77%  | 19,275 | 0.24%  | 102 | 43,057
Jefferson | 70.62% | 14,970 | 29.18%  | 6,185 | 0.21%  | 44 | 21,199
King | 75.05% | 668,692 | 24.73%  | 220,307 | 0.22%  | 1,943 | 890,942
Kitsap | 57.51% | 70,939 | 42.26%  | 52,134 | 0.23%  | 276 | 123,351
Kittitas | 39.99%  | 8,318 | 59.84% | 12,446 | 0.16%  | 34 | 20,798
Klickitat | 41.89%  | 4,798 | 57.96% | 6,639 | 0.16%  | 18 | 11,455
Lewis | 31.29%  | 11,263 | 68.50% | 24,654 | 0.21%  | 75 | 35,992
Lincoln | 23.12%  | 1,423 | 76.63% | 4,716 | 0.24%  | 15 | 6,154
Mason | 46.74%  | 13,777 | 52.97% | 15,612 | 0.29%  | 86 | 29,475
Okanogan | 40.01%  | 6,644 | 59.78% | 9,926 | 0.20%  | 34 | 16,605
Pacific | 48.32%  | 5,771 | 51.39% | 6,137 | 0.29%  | 35 | 11,943
Pend Oreille | 29.94%  | 2,032 | 69.82% | 4,739 | 0.24%  | 16 | 6,787
Pierce | 52.69% | 175,164 | 47.02%  | 156,331 | 0.29%  | 959 | 332,454
San Juan | 72.88% | 8,254 | 26.97%  | 3,055 | 0.15%  | 17 | 11,326
Skagit | 51.57% | 29,316 | 48.19%  | 27,394 | 0.24%  | 139 | 56,849
Skamania | 42.07%  | 2,620 | 57.80% | 3,599 | 0.13%  | 8 | 6,227
Snohomish | 57.52% | 184,430 | 42.21%  | 135,339 | 0.27%  | 864 | 320,633
Spokane | 45.46%  | 100,719 | 54.34% | 120,369 | 0.20%  | 443 | 221,531
Stevens | 26.50%  | 6,073 | 73.31% | 16,803 | 0.19%  | 43 | 22,919
Thurston | 58.04% | 73,189 | 41.69%  | 52,570 | 0.28%  | 347 | 126,106
Wahkiakum | 39.26%  | 1,007 | 60.47% | 1,551 | 0.27%  | 7 | 2,565
Walla Walla | 41.38%  | 10,039 | 58.50% | 14,192 | 0.12%  | 29 | 24,260
Whatcom | 59.32% | 65,950 | 40.51%  | 45,038 | 0.16%  | 182 | 111,170
Whitman | 49.81%  | 7,824 | 49.96% | 7,848 | 0.22%  | 35 | 15,707
Yakima | 35.86%  | 22,541 | 63.93% | 40,188 | 0.22%  | 136 | 62,865
Total  | 57.15% | 1,741,827 | 42.63%  | 1,299,322  | 0.22%  | 6,751  | 3,047,900

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Grays Harbor (largest city: Aberdeen)
* Mason (largest city: Shelton)
* Pacific (largest city: Raymond)
* Whitman (largest city: Pullman)

#### By congressional district

[edit]

Murray won 7 of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining 3 going to Smiley, including one that elected a Democrat.[97]

District  | Murray  | Smiley  | Representative

|
|
|

1st | 62% | 37%  | Suzan DelBene
2nd | 59% | 41%  | Rick Larsen
3rd | 46%  | 54% | Jaime Herrera Beutler (117th Congress)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (118th Congress)
4th | 34%  | 66% | Dan Newhouse
5th | 42%  | 58% | Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th | 57% | 43%  | Derek Kilmer
7th | 87% | 13%  | Pramila Jayapal
8th | 51% | 49%  | Kim Schrier
9th | 71% | 29%  | Adam Smith
10th | 57% | 43%  | Marilyn Strickland

## See also

[edit]

* 2022 United States Senate elections

## Notes

[edit]

1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
3. ^ "Other/Refused" with 4%
4. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
5. ^ "Someone else" with 5%

Partisan clients

1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for the NRSC and the Evergreen Principles PAC, which supports Smiley.
2. ^ This poll was sponsored by American Greatness, a conservative news outlet.
3. ^ Poll conducted for KHQ-TV.
4. ^ Poll conducted for Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization.
5. ^ a b c d e This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute.
6. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Senate Opportunity Fund.
7. ^ This poll was sponsored by Smiley's campaign.

## References

[edit]

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## External links

[edit]

Official campaign websites

* Patty Murray (D) for Senate
* Tiffany Smiley (R) for Senate

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