2024 Queensland state election

For the local government elections held in March, see 2024 Queensland local elections.

2024 Queensland state election

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| <- 2020 | 26 October 2024 | 2028 ->

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<- outgoing members

elected members ->

* * *

All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
47 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered| 3,683,368
Turnout| 3,231,968 (87.74%)
(0.2 pp)
|  | First party  | Second party

|
|

|  |
Leader  | David Crisafulli | Steven Miles
Party  | Liberal National | Labor
Leader since  | 12 November 2020  | 15 December 2023
Leader's seat  | Broadwater | Murrumba
Last election  | 34 seats, 35.89%  | 52 seats, 39.57%
Seats before  | 35[a] | 51[a]
Seats won  | 52 | 36
Seat change  |  17  |  15
First-preference vote  | 1,289,535  | 1,011,211
Percentage  | 41.5% | 32.6%
Swing  |  5.6  |  7.0
TPP | 53.8% | 46.2%
TPP swing  |  7.0  |  7.0

* * *

| Third party  | Fourth party
|  |
Leader  | Robbie Katter | No leader
Party  | Katter's Australian | Greens
Leader since  | 2 February 2015  |
Leader's seat  | Traeger |
Last election  | 3 seats, 2.48%  | 2 seats, 9.47%
Seats before  | 4[b] | 2
Seats won  | 3  | 1
Seat change  |  1  |  1
First-preference vote  | 75,773  | 307,178
Percentage  | 2.4%  | 9.9%
Swing  |  0.1  |  0.4

* * *

Winning margin by electorate.

* * *

| Premier before election

Steven Miles
Labor

| Subsequent Premier

David Crisafulli
Liberal National

|

The 2024 Queensland state election was held on 26 October 2024 to elect all members to the Legislative Assembly of Queensland pursuant to the Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015. As a result of the 2016 Queensland term length referendum, the term of the parliament will run for four years.[1][2]

The election was the first since 2006 to feature two men leading the major parties. The opposition Liberal National Party (LNP) led by David Crisafulli defeated the incumbent Labor government, led by Premier Steven Miles after three terms in government.[3] Katter's Australian Party and the Queensland Greens also held seats in parliament, while other parties that contested the election included Pauline Hanson's One Nation, Legalise Cannabis Queensland,[4] other minor parties as well as independents.

The LNP's victory was not clear until late on the night of the election count, when analysts projected Labor had lost their majority and the LNP was on track to form a majority government.[5] Crisafulli declared victory in a late-night speech following the close of polls, however Miles initially held back on conceding pending further counting in several seats, though by the following morning he conceded defeat at a press conference.[6][7]

The LNP won 52 seats in the assembly (enough for a six-seat majority), with a positive swing of over five and a half percentage points on first-preference (primary) votes translating into a net 17-seat gain. Labor by contrast had a swing against them of seven percent, losing a net 15 seats and leaving them on 36 seats. Katter's Australian Party (KAP) retained three of their seats, though former One Nation MP Stephen Andrew, who joined KAP six weeks prior to the election and boosted the party's seat figure in parliament to four, lost the seat of Mirani to the LNP. The Greens were targeting victories in multiple seats throughout metropolitan Brisbane after strong performances at the 2022 federal election,[8] however their primary vote stagnated and the party's representation in parliament was halved, winning only one seat (Maiwar). Independent Sandy Bolton retained the seat of Noosa.[9]

Crisafulli was sworn in as Queensland's 41st Premier by Governor Jeannette Young on 28 October, alongside his deputy Jarrod Bleijie.[10] The pair formed an interim ministry, with the full ministry sworn in later in the week.[11]

## Electoral system

[edit]

Queensland has compulsory voting and uses full-preference preferential voting for single-member electorates. The election is conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland. The party or coalition that wins the majority of seats (at least 47) forms the government. If no majority emerges, then the party or coalition that is able to command the confidence of the Legislative Assembly forms government as a minority government.

The party or coalition that wins the second-highest number of seats forms the opposition, with the remaining parties and independent candidates being allocated to the cross bench.

The Queensland Parliament is the only unicameral state parliament in Australia, composed of the Legislative Assembly. The upper house, the Legislative Council, was abolished in 1922.

## Key dates

[edit]

The election will be for all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly. Pursuant to Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has fixed terms, with all elections following the 2020 election held every four years on the last Saturday of October.[12] The Governor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintain confidence, or the annual appropriation bill fails to pass.

* Issue of election writ – Tuesday 1 October 2024, by the Governor of Queensland.
* Candidate nominations period – Wednesday 2 October to Tuesday 8 October 2024 at 12pm, local time.
* Ballot paper order draw – Tuesday 8 October 2024 at 2.30pm.
* Early voting period – Monday 14 October to Friday 25 October 2024 from 8am–6pm (excluding the weekend).
* Postal vote applications close – Monday 14 October 2024 at 7pm.
* Election Day – Saturday 26 October 2024 (from 8am–6pm).
* Postal vote return deadline – Tuesday 5 November 2024.[13]

## Background

[edit]

After suffering a landslide defeat at the 2012 state election, the Labor Party achieved a 37-seat swing and returned to power in Queensland at the 2015 state election under the leadership of Annastacia Palaszczuk. Initially forming a minority government, they later won a majority at the 2017 state election, and further increased their number of seats in 2020 at an election overshadowed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Palaszczuk resigned as Premier in December 2023 and was succeeded by her deputy, Steven Miles.[14] On 16 March 2024, the first elections during his leadership, two by-elections, were held in Inala and Ipswich West.[15] Despite being held by safe margins of 28.2% and 14.3% respectively, a massive swing against the Labor party was recorded in both seats, resulting in the margin in Inala being cut by more than 20%, and the loss of Ipswich West to the LNP.[16]

## Registered parties

[edit]

The following parties are registered with Queensland Electoral Commission:[17]

* Australian Labor Party (State of Queensland)
* Liberal National Party of Queensland
* Katter's Australian Party (KAP)
* Queensland Greens
* Animal Justice Party (Queensland)
* Family First Queensland
* Legalise Cannabis Queensland (Party)
* Libertarian Party of Queensland
* Pauline Hanson's One Nation Queensland Division

## Campaign

[edit]

The LNP campaigned heavily on four key issues, which it has labelled as crises: crime (particularly youth crime), cost-of-living, housing affordability and health. Crisafulli credited Labor's poor results at by-elections, held in March 2024, with voters' anger over Labor's handling of those key issues.[18] After what Miles described as a "very bad result" for Labor at the two state by-elections, he accused the LNP of "sensationalising and politicising" crime to win votes.[19]

Opinion polling and betting odds had the LNP as the firm favourites to win the election in a landslide, with Miles himself conceding that it was "very likely" that Labor would lose the election, whilst also criticising Crisafulli's "small target strategy" and claiming he had a lack of plans despite likely becoming the state's next Premier.[20] An opinion poll conducted by YouGov and released on 26 April 2024 saw Labor record a two-party-preferred vote of just 44%, while Miles had a net negative approval rating of –22%, marking the worst opinion poll result for a Queensland Premier in 20 years.[21]

In August 2024, Miles announced a policy of state-owned petrol stations,[22][23][24] while Crisafulli promised to re-introduce optional preferential voting, which was previously used in Queensland from 1992 to 2015, and is currently used at a state level in New South Wales and Tasmania.[25]

The lack of affordable rentals, and rent increases emerged as a major issue over the campaign. In Brisbane, median advertised rents increased by 49 per cent from the start of the COVID pandemic to December 2023.[26]

On 26 September Miles suggested Labor would consider introducing a cap of 10% on the amount rent can increase each year.[27] Miles subsequently came under pressure by property industry lobbyists to rule out the policy, with Queensland Greens MP, Amy MacMahon commenting “Make no mistake, the only reason Labor is finally considering something they've opposed for years is because they're under massive pressure from the Greens this election,”.[28] Support for rent caps was expressed by social housing peak body Queensland Shelter.

A YouGov poll commissioned by the Queensland Greens published by Seven News on 2 October and the Courier Mail 3 October indicated 54% of Queenslanders polled supported rent increases being capped at 1% annually, with 60% of Labor voters, 44% of LNP voters and 70% of Greens voters supporting the policy.[29]

A leaders debate was held on the 3rd of October broadcast by Channel 9, 4BC radio and the Brisbane Times.[30] An online reader poll with 64,000 votes conducted by the Brisbane Times declared opposition Leader David Crisafulli won the debate with 57% of the vote.[31]

Miles and Crisafulli ruled out introducing a rent cap during the leaders debate.[32]

In 2 October 2024, Labor's Miles announced a policy of a state-owned energy retailer.[33][34] On 13 October 2024, Labor announced a policy of Free school meals.[35]

A second leaders debate between the LNP and ALP leaders was held on the 16th of October.

A final leaders debate between the ALP and LNP leaders was hosted by Sky News and The Courier-Mail People’s Forum on October 22.[36] The debate consisted of 100 undecided voters picked by YouGov, who would then be chosen to ask questions to the leaders. The results of the debate are as follows: 39% Miles, 35% Crisafulli, and 26% still undecided.[37]

### Controversy

[edit]

Some candidates attracted controversy during the course of the campaign, in particular for insensitivity regarding Nazi symbolism.[38][39][40]

## Results

[edit]

Main articles: Results of the 2024 Queensland state election; Post-election pendulum for the 2024 Queensland state election; and Members of the Queensland Legislative Assembly, 2024–2028

36 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 52

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ALP | GRN | IND | KAP | LNP
Legislative Assembly (IRV) – Turnout TBD (CV)[9][41][42] Party  | Votes  | %  | Swing  | Seats  | +/–

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| Liberal National | 1,289,535  | 41.52  | +5.63  | 52  |  17
| Labor | 1,011,211  | 32.56  | −7.01  | 36  |  15
| Greens | 307,178  | 9.89  | +0.42  | 1  |  1
| One Nation | 248,334  | 8.00  | +0.88  | 0  |
| Katter's Australian | 75,773  | 2.44  | –0.08  | 3  |  1
| Family First | 57,826  | 1.86  | +1.86  | 0  |
| Independents | 52,657  | 1.69  | −0.79  | 1  |
| Legalise Cannabis | 49,621  | 1.60  | +0.69  | 0  |
| Animal Justice | 9,669  | 0.31  | −0.03  | 0  |
| Libertarian | 4,141  | 0.13  | +0.13  | 0  |
Formal votes  | 3,105,945  | 96.10  | −0.50  |  |
Informal votes  | 126,023  | 3.90  | +0.50  |  |
Total  | 3,231,968  | 100  |  | 93  |
Registered voters / turnout  | 3,683,368  | 87.74  | −0.17  |  |
Two-party-preferred vote
| Liberal National | 1,669,799  | 53.8  |  7.0  |  |
| Labor | 1,436,146  | 46.2  |  7.0  |  |

### Seats changing hands

[edit]

Members in italics did not recontest their seats.

Seat  | Pre-election  | Swing  | Post-election

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|
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Party  | Member  | Margin  | Margin  | Member  | Party
Barron River |  | Labor | Craig Crawford | 3.1  | 6.8  | 3.7  | Bree James | Liberal National |
Caloundra |  | Labor | Jason Hunt | 2.5  | 4.3  | 1.8  | Kendall Morton | Liberal National |
Capalaba |  | Labor | Don Brown | 9.8  | 11.7  | 1.9  | Russell Field | Liberal National |
Cook |  | Labor | Cynthia Lui | 6.3  | 11.2  | 5.0  | David Kempton | Liberal National |
Hervey Bay |  | Labor | Adrian Tantari | 2.0  | 10.4  | 8.4  | David Lee | Liberal National |
Ipswich West |  | Liberal National | Darren Zanow[c] | 14.4 (ALP)  | 10.4 (LNP)  | 3.9  | Wendy Bourne | Labor |
Keppel |  | Labor | Brittany Lauga | 5.6  | 16.1  | 10.5  | Nigel Hutton | Liberal National |
Mackay |  | Labor | Julieanne Gilbert | 6.7  | 17.2  | 10.4  | Nigel Dalton | Liberal National |
Maryborough |  | Labor | Bruce Saunders | 11.9  | 14.6  | 2.7  | John Barounis | Liberal National |
Mirani |  | Katter's Australian | Stephen Andrew[d] | 9.0 (ONP)  | 50.9  | 0.9  | Glen Kelly | Liberal National |
Mulgrave |  | Labor | Curtis Pitt | 12.2  | 15.4  | 3.1  | Terry James | Liberal National |
Mundingburra |  | Labor | Les Walker | 3.9  | 13.3  | 9.4  | Janelle Poole | Liberal National |
Nicklin |  | Labor | Robert Skelton | 0.1  | 2.8  | 2.7  | Marty Hunt | Liberal National |
Pumicestone |  | Labor | Ali King | 5.3  | 5.7  | 0.4  | Ariana Doolan | Liberal National |
Redcliffe |  | Labor | Yvette D'Ath | 6.1  | 9.2  | 3.1  | Kerri-Anne Dooley | Liberal National |
Redlands |  | Labor | Kim Richards | 3.9  | 5.8  | 1.9  | Rebecca Young | Liberal National |
Rockhampton |  | Labor | Barry O'Rourke | 8.6  | 10.4  | 1.8  | Donna Kirkland | Liberal National |
South Brisbane |  | Greens | Amy MacMahon | 5.3  | 11.4  | 6.1  | Barbara O'Shea | Labor |
Thuringowa |  | Labor | Aaron Harper | 3.2  | 13.2  | 9.9  | Natalie Marr | Liberal National |
Townsville |  | Labor | Scott Stewart | 3.1  | 8.7  | 5.6  | Adam Baillie | Liberal National |

## Candidates

[edit]

Main article: Candidates of the 2024 Queensland state election

A total of 525 candidates from nine political parties (or independent) will contest the election. It is the second-most contested election by nominated candidates in Queensland history, behind the previous election (2020).[43][44]

Crisafulli began announcing LNP candidates 18 months prior to the election, making the LNP the first party to formally endorse candidates for the election.[45] The LNP announced several other candidates afterwards. The second party to formally endorse a candidate was Katter's Australian Party (KAP), announcing their candidate for the Far North Queensland seat of Cook on 6 October 2023.[46]

Labor, the LNP, and the Greens have announced candidates in all 93 electorates.[47] Pauline Hanson announced 2 October her One Nation Party would also be contesting every seat.[48]

### Preferences

[edit]

Candidates and parties may publish recommendations to voters on How-to-vote cards and other materials indicating how that candidate or party suggests a voter should order their ballot under the state's full-preference instant-runoff voting system. Voters must number every candidate on the ballot paper to cast a formal vote. A candidate or party cannot determine the order a vote is distributed for a voter. Preference deals refer to parties or candidates agreeing to order recommendations on each other's how-to-vote materials that are favourable to the other.

#### Liberal National

[edit]

In late 2023, it was reported in The Australian that Leader of the Opposition David Crisafulli considered preferencing the Greens over Labor at the upcoming state election.[49] Crisafulli told the newspaper: "Now, the same doesn't happen on the other side of the draw – the preferences on the right don't flow in the same way that the Greens' preferences flow to Labor," adding: "So it is a corrupt system... and I have a big concern about the prospect of a Labor–Greens coalition. They will say no deals... but they've said that before and they then broke the promise anyway. So I am deeply concerned by that."[49]

On 1 October 2024, the LNP officially announced they would preference Labor over the Greens at the state election.[50]

#### One Nation

[edit]

One Nation leader and federal Senator for Queensland, Pauline Hanson, confirmed in February 2024 that One Nation would preference the LNP over Labor in every seat, despite her reported distrust of both major parties.[51]

#### Labor

[edit]

Retiring Labor MP and Attorney-General Yvette D’Ath claimed on 24 August the that the Greens were "happy to do deals" with the LNP to get more members elected to parliament. While Ms D'Ath issued a plea to voters to not replace Labor MPs with Greens members, she refused to concede that the polling showed a progressive swing among inner-city residents.[52]

Labor is giving preferences to Legalise Cannabis ahead of the Greens in 28 seats.[53]

#### Greens

[edit]

The Queensland Greens had previously ruled out doing any preference deal with the LNP in 2024.[54]

#### Katter

[edit]

The Katter's Australian Party will give its preference to the LNP in North Queensland seats.[55]

## Retiring members

[edit]

### Labor

[edit]

* Yvette D'Ath (Redcliffe) – announced retirement on 22 February 2024, citing the need to find more balance in her life.[56]
* Julieanne Gilbert (Mackay) – announced retirement on 25 July 2024.[57]
* Stirling Hinchliffe (Sandgate) – announced retirement on 11 October 2023.[58]
* Barry O'Rourke (Rockhampton) – announced retirement on 13 November 2023, citing health issues.[59]
* Curtis Pitt (Mulgrave) – announced retirement on 22 August 2024.[60]

### Liberal National

[edit]

* Michael Hart (Burleigh) – announced retirement on 6 September 2023.[61]
* Lachlan Millar (Gregory) – announced retirement on 18 October 2023.[62]
* Mark Robinson (Oodgeroo) – announced retirement on 16 June 2023.[63]
* Darren Zanow (Ipswich West) – announced retirement on 12 July 2024, due to his diagnosis of Microvascular ischemic disease.[64]

## Electoral pendulum

[edit]

### Pre-election pendulum

[edit]

Extended content

This is a pre-election pendulum for the 2024 Queensland state election. Members in italics are not contesting the election. By-elections were held in four seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.

| Government seats

Marginal
Bundaberg | Tom Smith | ALP  | 0.01
Nicklin | Robert Skelton | ALP  | 0.1
Hervey Bay | Adrian Tantari | ALP  | 2.0
Caloundra | Jason Hunt | ALP  | 2.5
Barron River | Craig Crawford | ALP  | 3.1
Townsville | Scott Stewart | ALP  | 3.1
Thuringowa | Aaron Harper | ALP  | 3.2
Redlands | Kim Richards | ALP  | 3.9
Mundingburra | Les Walker | ALP  | 3.9
Aspley | Bart Mellish | ALP  | 5.2
Pumicestone | Ali King | ALP  | 5.3
Cairns | Michael Healy | ALP  | 5.6
Keppel | Brittany Lauga | ALP  | 5.6
Fairly safe
Redcliffe | Yvette D'Ath | ALP  | 6.1
Cook | Cynthia Lui | ALP  | 6.3
Inala | Margie Nightingale | ALP  | 6.7 [i]
Mackay | Julieanne Gilbert | ALP  | 6.7
Pine Rivers | Nikki Boyd | ALP  | 6.7
Mansfield | Corrine McMillan | ALP  | 6.8
Gaven | Meaghan Scanlon | ALP  | 7.8
Springwood | Mick de Brenni | ALP  | 8.3
Rockhampton | Barry O'Rourke | ALP  | 8.6
Macalister | Melissa McMahon | ALP  | 9.5
Capalaba | Don Brown | ALP  | 9.8
Safe
Cooper | Jonty Bush | ALP  | 10.5
Ferny Grove | Mark Furner | ALP  | 11.0
McConnel | Grace Grace | ALP  | 11.1
Murrumba | Steven Miles | ALP  | 11.3
Bulimba | Di Farmer | ALP  | 11.4
Maryborough | Bruce Saunders | ALP  | 11.9
Stafford | Jimmy Sullivan | ALP  | 11.9
Mulgrave | Curtis Pitt | ALP  | 12.2
Mount Ommaney | Jess Pugh | ALP  | 12.6
Bancroft | Chris Whiting | ALP  | 12.8
Kurwongbah | Shane King | ALP  | 13.1
Greenslopes | Joe Kelly | ALP  | 13.2
Logan | Linus Power | ALP  | 13.4
Lytton | Joan Pease | ALP  | 13.4
Miller | Mark Bailey | ALP  | 13.8
Stretton | James Martin | ALP  | 13.9 [ii]
Toohey | Peter Russo | ALP  | 14.4
Nudgee | Leanne Linard | ALP  | 15.1
Waterford | Shannon Fentiman | ALP  | 16.0
Ipswich | Jennifer Howard | ALP  | 16.5
Morayfield | Mark Ryan | ALP  | 16.7
Jordan | Charis Mullen | ALP  | 17.1
Sandgate | Stirling Hinchliffe | ALP  | 17.3
Algester | Leeanne Enoch | ALP  | 17.8
Bundamba | Lance McCallum | ALP v ONP  | 20.7
Gladstone | Glenn Butcher | ALP  | 23.5
Woodridge | Cameron Dick | ALP  | 26.2
Non-government seats

Marginal
Currumbin | Laura Gerber | LNP  | 0.5
Coomera | Michael Crandon | LNP  | 1.1
Burleigh | Michael Hart | LNP  | 1.2
Chatsworth | Steve Minnikin | LNP  | 1.3
Glass House | Andrew Powell | LNP  | 1.6
Clayfield | Tim Nicholls | LNP  | 1.6
Everton | Tim Mander | LNP  | 2.2
Whitsunday | Amanda Camm | LNP  | 3.3
Theodore | Mark Boothman | LNP  | 3.3
Ipswich West | Darren Zanow | LNP  | 3.5 [iii]
Moggill | Christian Rowan | LNP  | 3.6
Ninderry | Dan Purdie | LNP  | 4.1
Mermaid Beach | Ray Stevens | LNP  | 4.4
Oodgeroo | Mark Robinson | LNP  | 4.5
Buderim | Brent Mickelberg | LNP  | 5.3
Southport | Rob Molhoek | LNP  | 5.4
Fairly safe
Burdekin | Dale Last | LNP  | 7.0
Toowoomba North | Trevor Watts | LNP  | 7.3
Gympie | Tony Perrett | LNP  | 8.5
Maroochydore | Fiona Simpson | LNP  | 9.1
Kawana | Jarrod Bleijie | LNP  | 9.3
Safe
Bonney | Sam O'Connor | LNP  | 10.1
Mudgeeraba | Ros Bates | LNP  | 10.1
Toowoomba South | David Janetzki | LNP  | 10.2
Burnett | Stephen Bennett | LNP  | 10.8
Scenic Rim | Jon Krause | LNP  | 11.4
Lockyer | Jim McDonald | LNP  | 11.5
Nanango | Deb Frecklington | LNP  | 12.2
Southern Downs | James Lister | LNP  | 14.1
Surfers Paradise | John-Paul Langbroek | LNP  | 16.2
Broadwater | David Crisafulli | LNP  | 16.6
Gregory | Lachlan Millar | LNP  | 17.2
Condamine | Pat Weir | LNP  | 19.2
Callide | Bryson Head | LNP  | 21.7 [iv]
Warrego | Ann Leahy | LNP  | 23.1
Crossbench seats
South Brisbane | Amy MacMahon | GRN v ALP  | 5.3
Maiwar | Michael Berkman | GRN v LNP  | 6.3
Mirani | Stephen Andrew | ONP v ALP  | 9.0
Hinchinbrook | Nick Dametto | KAP v LNP  | 14.8
Noosa | Sandy Bolton | IND v LNP  | 15.8
Hill | Shane Knuth | KAP v ALP  | 22.5
Traeger | Robbie Katter | KAP v ALP  | 24.7

Notes

1. ^ In 2024 there was a by-election after Annastacia Palaszczuk resigned from her seat. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
2. ^ In 2021 there was a by-election after the death of Duncan Pegg. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
3. ^ In 2024 there was a by-election after Labor MP Jim Madden resigned from his seat. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
4. ^ In 2022 there was a by-election after Colin Boyce was elected to the seat of Flynn in the 2022 Australian Federal Election. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.

### Post-election pendulum

[edit]

Extended content

| Government seats (52)

Marginal
Pumicestone | Ariana Doolan | LNP  | 0.4%
Mirani | Glen Kelly | LNP  | 1.0% v KAP
Caloundra | Kendall Morton | LNP  | 1.8%
Rockhampton | Donna Kirkland | LNP  | 1.8%
Redlands | Rebecca Young | LNP  | 1.9%
Capalaba | Russell Field | LNP  | 1.9%
Mulgrave | Terry James | LNP  | 2.7%
Nicklin | Marty Hunt | LNP  | 2.7%
Maryborough | John Barounis | LNP  | 2.8%
Redcliffe | Kerri-Anne Dooley | LNP  | 2.9%
Clayfield | Tim Nicholls | LNP  | 3.5%
Barron River | Bree James | LNP  | 3.7%
Cook | David Kempton | LNP  | 5.0%
Everton | Tim Mander | LNP  | 5.3%
Townsville | Adam Baillie | LNP  | 5.6%
Moggill | Christian Rowan | LNP  | 5.6%
Fairly safe
Hervey Bay | David Lee | LNP  | 8.4%
Chatsworth | Steve Minnikin | LNP  | 8.5%
Mundingburra | Janelle Poole | LNP  | 9.2%
Buderim | Brent Mickelberg | LNP  | 9.3%
Thuringowa | Natalie Marr | LNP  | 9.9%
Safe
Coomera | Michael Crandon | LNP  | 10.0%
Glass House | Andrew Powell | LNP  | 10.2%
Mackay | Nigel Dalton | LNP  | 10.2%
Ninderry | Dan Purdie | LNP  | 10.5%
Keppel | Nigel Hutton | LNP  | 10.5%
Maroochydore | Fiona Simpson | LNP  | 10.9%
Southport | Rob Molhoek | LNP  | 11.2%
Oodgeroo | Amanda Stoker | LNP  | 11.8%
Currumbin | Laura Gerber | LNP  | 12.3%
Kawana | Jarrod Bleijie | LNP  | 12.7%
Burleigh | Hermann Vorster | LNP  | 12.8%
Theodore | Mark Boothman | LNP  | 13.0%
Toowoomba South | David Janetzki | LNP  | 13.0%
Mermaid Beach | Ray Stevens | LNP  | 13.1%
Bonney | Sam O'Connor | LNP  | 13.7%
Mudgeeraba | Ros Bates | LNP  | 13.9%
Gympie | Tony Perrett | LNP  | 14.8%
Burnett | Stephen Bennett | LNP  | 15.4%
Burderkin | Dale Last | LNP  | 15.8%
Scenic Rim | Jon Krause | LNP  | 16.1%
Toowoomba North | Trevor Watts | LNP  | 16.5%
Whitsunday | Amanda Camm | LNP  | 18.5%
Southern Downs | James Lister | LNP  | 18.6% v ONP
Lockyer | Jim McDonald | LNP  | 19.2%
Very safe
Gregory | Sean Dillon | LNP  | 21.0%
Broadwater | David Crisafulli | LNP  | 21.3%
Nanango | Deb Frecklington | LNP  | 22.9%
Surfers Paradise | John-Paul Langbroek | LNP  | 23.1%
Callide | Bryson Head | LNP  | 23.2%
Condamine | Pat Weir | LNP  | 23.6%
Warrego | Ann Leahy | LNP  | 27.9%
Non-government seats (36)

Marginal
Aspley | Bart Mellish | ALP  | 0.04%
Gaven | Meaghan Scanlon | ALP  | 0.7%
Pine Rivers | Nikki Boyd | ALP  | 0.7%
Bundaberg | Tom Smith | ALP  | 1.5%
Macalister | Melissa McMahon | ALP  | 1.9%
Springwood | Mick de Brenni | ALP  | 2.1%
Cairns | Michael Healy | ALP  | 2.5%
Lytton | Joan Pease | ALP  | 3.0%
Ipswich West | Wendy Bourne | ALP  | 3.9%
Logan | Linus Power | ALP  | 4.3%
Mansfield | Corrine McMillan | ALP  | 4.9%
Stafford | Jimmy Sullivan | ALP  | 5.3%
Kurwongbah | Shane King | ALP  | 5.9%
Fairly safe
Bancroft | Chris Whiting | ALP  | 6.0%
South Brisbane | Barbara O'Shea | ALP  | 6.1% v GRN
Morayfield | Mark Ryan | ALP  | 7.1%
Mount Ommaney | Jess Pugh | ALP  | 7.3%
Algester | Leeanne Enoch | ALP  | 7.5%
Ferny Grove | Mark Furner | ALP  | 7.9%
Bulimba | Di Farmer | ALP  | 8.2%
McConnel | Grace Grace | ALP  | 8.8%
Ipswich | Jennifer Howard | ALP  | 8.9%
Toohey | Peter Russo | ALP  | 9.0%
Gladstone | Glenn Butcher | ALP  | 9.2%
Stretton | James Martin | ALP  | 9.5%
Sandgate | Bisma Asif | ALP  | 9.6%
Murrumba | Steven Miles | ALP  | 9.8%
Greenslopes | Joe Kelly | ALP  | 9.8%
Safe
Jordan | Charis Mullen | ALP  | 10.0%
Miller | Mark Bailey | ALP  | 10.6%
Cooper | Jonty Bush | ALP  | 11.2%
Waterford | Shannon Fentiman | ALP  | 11.3%
Nudgee | Leanne Linard | ALP  | 12.0%
Inala | Margie Nightingale | ALP  | 12.6%
Bundamba | Lance McCallum | ALP  | 13.8%
Woodridge | Cameron Dick | ALP  | 18.3%
Crossbench seats (5)
Maiwar | Michael Berkman | GRN  | 3.4% v LNP
Noosa | Sandy Bolton | IND  | 8.5% v LNP
Hinchinbrook | Nick Dametto | KAP  | 13.2% v LNP
Hill | Shane Knuth | KAP  | 13.7% v LNP
Traeger | Robbie Katter | KAP  | 13.7% v LNP

## Opinion polling

[edit]

This section possibly contains original synthesis. Source material should verifiably mention and relate to the main topic. Relevant discussion may be found on the talk page. (October 2024) (Learn how and when to remove this message)

|

In the lead-up to the state election, polling companies conduct regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, and contain an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also ask questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.

Some polls do not publish a two-party-preferred result. In these cases, the result has been manually calculated from preference flows at the 2020 election.

### Voting intention

[edit]

Legislative Assembly polling  Date  | Firm  | Sample  | Primary vote  | 2pp vote

|
|
|
|

ALP | LNP | GRN | ONP | KAP | OTH | ALP | LNP
26 October 2024 election |  | 32.6%  | 41.5%  | 9.9%  | 8.0%  | 2.4%  | 5.6%  | 46.2%  | 53.8%
24 October 2024  | uComms[65] | 3,651  | 33.6%  | 39.3%  | 12.9%  | 7.8%  | 2.9%  | 3.5%  | 49%  | 51%
18–24 October 2024  | Newspoll[66] | 1,151  | 33%  | 42%  | 11%  | 8%  | —  | 6%  | 47.5%  | 52.5%
14–19 October 2024  | Resolve Strategic[67] | 1,003  | 32%  | 40%  | 11%  | 9%  | 2%  | 6%  | 47%  | 53%
10–16 October 2024  | YouGov[68] | 1,503  | 31%  | 41%  | 11%  | 11%  | 1%  | 5%  | 45%  | 55%
15 October 2024  | The Courier-Mail (Exit Poll)[69] | 1,000  | 30%  | 48.2%  | 8.6%  | 7.3%  | 1.5%  | 4.4%  | 42%  | 58%
26–29 September 2024  | Freshwater Strategy[70] | 1,062  | 30%  | 43%  | 12%  | 8%  | —  | 7%  | 44%  | 56%
12–18 September 2024  | Newspoll[71] | 1,047  | 30%  | 42%  | 12%  | 8%  | —  | 8%  | 45%  | 55%
June – September 2024  | Resolve Strategic[72] | 939  | 23%  | 44%  | 12%  | 8%  | 1%  | 12%  | 41.5%  | 58.5%
6–29 August 2024  | Wolf & Smith[73][74] | 1,724  | 24%  | 42%  | 12%  | 8%  | 3%  | 11%  | 43%  | 57%
May – August 2024  | RedBridge[75] | 829  | 29%  | 42%  | 11%  | —  | —  | 18%  | 45.5%  | 54.5%
8–15 July 2024  | YouGov[76] | 1,019  | 26%  | 43%  | 14%  | 13%  | 1%  | 3%  | 43%  | 57%
February – May 2024  | RedBridge[77][78] | 880  | 28%  | 47%  | 12%  | —  | —  | 13%  | 43%  | 57%
February – May 2024  | Resolve Strategic[79][80] | 947  | 26%  | 43%  | 13%  | 8%  | 1%  | 9%  | 44.5%  | 55.5%
9–17 April 2024  | YouGov[81] | 1,092  | 27%  | 44%  | 15%  | 10%  | 1%  | 3%  | 44%  | 56%
16 March 2024  | The local government elections are held, LNP wins Ipswich West by-election and Labor holds its seat in Inala.
7–13 March 2024  | Newspoll[82] | 1,037  | 30%  | 42%  | 13%  | 8%  | —  | 7%  | 46%  | 54%
13 February 2024  | uComms[83][84] | 1,743  | 34.2%  | 37.3%  | 12.2%  | 7.7%  | 3.9%  | 4.7%  | 50%  | 50%
26 December 2023  | uComms[85] | 1,911  | 34.4%  | 36.2%  | —  | —  | —  | —  | 49%  | 51%
15 December 2023  | Steven Miles is elected Leader of Queensland Labor; sworn in as Premier of Queensland.
13 December 2023  | uComms[86] | 1,143  | 34%  | 38.2%  | 11.9%  | 7.8%  | 3.3%  | 4.8%  | 48%  | 52%
10 December 2023  | Annastacia Palaszczuk announces her intention to resign as Leader of Queensland Labor and Premier of Queensland.
September – December 2023  | Resolve Strategic[87][88] | 940  | 33%  | 37%  | 12%  | 8%  | —  | 10%  | 49.5%  | 50.5%
4–10 October 2023  | YouGov[89] | 1,013  | 33%  | 41%  | 13%  | 8%  | 2%  | 3%  | 48%  | 52%
26 August – 6 September 2023  | RedBridge[90][91][92][93] | 2,012  | 26%  | 41%  | 14%  | 9%  | —  | 10%  | 45%  | 55%
May – August 2023  | Resolve Strategic[94] | 943  | 32%  | 38%  | 11%  | 8%  | 1%  | 10%[e] | 48%  | 52%
29 June – 2 July 2023  | Freshwater Strategy[95] | 1,065  | 34%  | 40%  | 11%  | —  | —  | 15%  | 49%  | 51%
17 January – 17 April 2023  | Resolve Strategic[96] | 943  | 35%  | 33%  | 12%  | 7%  | 1%  | 11%[f] | 52.5%  | 47.5%
30 March – 5 April 2023  | YouGov[97] | 1,015  | 33%  | 39%  | 13%  | 10%  | 2%  | —  | 49%  | 51%
1–8 December 2022  | YouGov[98] | ~1,000  | 34%  | 38%  | 13%  | 11%  | —  | 4%  | 50%  | 50%
21 August – 4 December 2022  | Resolve Strategic[99] | 924  | 37%  | 35%  | 11%  | 6%  | 1%  | 10%[g] | 53.2%  | 46.8%
23–30 June 2022  | YouGov[100] | ~1,000  | 34%  | 38%  | 14%  | 10%  | 1%  | 3%  | 50%  | 50%
18–23 February 2022  | YouGov[101] | ~1,000  | 39%  | 38%  | 10%  | 8%  | 1%  | 4%  | 52%  | 48%
31 October 2020 election |  | 39.6%  | 35.9%  | 9.5%  | 7.1%  | 2.5%  | 5.7%  | 53.2% | 46.8%

### Preferred Premier and satisfaction

[edit]

#### Preferred Premier

[edit]

Date  | Polling firm  | Sample  | Preferred Premier

|
|
|

Miles | Crisafulli | Don't know
18–24 October 2024  | Newspoll[102] | 1,151  | 45% | 42%  | 13%
14–19 October 2024  | Resolve Strategic[67] | 1,003  | 37%  | 39% | 24%
10–16 October 2024  | YouGov[68] | 1,503  | 36%  | 37% | 27%
26–29 September 2024  | Freshwater Strategy[70] | 1,062  | 38%  | 46% | 16%
12–18 September 2024  | Newspoll[71] | 1,047  | 39%  | 46% | 15%
June – September 2024  | Resolve Strategic[72] | 939  | 27%  | 40% | 33%
8–15 July 2024  | YouGov[103] | 1,019  | 29%  | 40% | 31%
February – May 2024  | Resolve Strategic[79] | 947  | 28%  | 39% | 33%
9–17 April 2024  | YouGov[104] | 1,092  | 27%  | 40% | 33%
7–13 March 2024  | Newspoll[103] | 1,037  | 37%  | 43% | 20%
13 February 2024  | uComms[83][84] | 1,743  | 49%  | 51% | —
26 December 2023  | uComms[85] | 1,911  | 47.8%  | 52.2% | —
Date  | Polling firm  | Sample  | Preferred Premier
Palaszczuk | Crisafulli | Don't know
September – December 2023  | Resolve Strategic[87][88] | 940  | 34%  | 39% | 27%
10 November 2023  | SEC Newgate[105] | 600  | 30%  | 34% | 36%
4–10 October 2023  | YouGov[89] | 1,013  | 35%  | 37% | 28%
December 2023  | Resolve Strategic[87][88] | 940  | 34%  | 39% | 27%
May – August 2023  | Resolve Strategic[94] | 943  | 36%  | 37% | 27%
29 June – 2 July 2023  | AFR/Freshwater Strategy[95] | 1,065  | 44%  | 45% | 11%
17 January – 17 April 2023  | Resolve Strategic[96] | 943  | 39% | 31%  | 31%
30 March – 5 April 2023  | YouGov[97] | 1,015  | 31% | 29%  | 40%
1–8 December 2022  | YouGov[98] | ~1,000  | 39% | 28%  | 33%
21 August – 4 December 2022  | Resolve Strategic[99] | 924  | 42% | 30%  | 28%
23–30 June 2022  | YouGov[100] | ~1,000  | 41% | 28%  | 31%

#### Satisfaction ratings

[edit]

Date  | Polling firm  | Sample  | Miles | Crisafulli

|
|
|
|

Satisfied  | Dissatisfied  | Don't Know  | Net  | Satisfied  | Dissatisfied  | Don't Know  | Net
18–24 October 2024  | Newspoll[106] | 1,151  | 45%  | 48%  | 7%  | –3% | 43%  | 46%  | 11%  | –3%
14–19 October 2024  | Resolve Strategic[67] | 1,003  | —  | —  | —  | +8% | —  | —  | —  | +7%
10–16 October 2024  | YouGov[68] | 1,503  | 34%  | 44% | 22%  | –10% | 38% | 32%  | 30%  | +6%
4–16 October 2024  | RedBridge Group[107] | 2,315  | 35%  | 44%  | 21%  | –9% | 40% | 31%  | 29%  | +9%
12–18 September 2024  | Newspoll[71] | 1,047  | 41%  | 51%  | 8%  | –10% | 49% | 37%  | 14%  | +12%
June – September 2024  | Resolve Strategic[72] | 939  | —  | —  | —  | –13% | —  | —  | —  | +18%
May – August 2024  | RedBridge[75] | 829  | —  | —  | —  | –12% | —  | —  | —  | +14%
8–15 July 2024  | YouGov[103] | 1,019  | 31%  | 44% | 25%  | –13% | 40% | 23%  | 37%  | +17%
February – May 2024  | RedBridge[77][78] | 880  | —  | —  | —  | –11% | —  | —  | —  | +14%
February – May 2024  | Resolve Strategic[79] | 947  | —  | —  | —  | –15% | —  | —  | —  | +14%
9–17 April 2024  | YouGov[104] | 1,092  | 25%  | 47% | 28%  | –22% | 40% | 26%  | 34%  | +14%
7–13 March 2024  | Newspoll[103] | 1,037  | 38%  | 49%  | 13%  | –11% | 47% | 33%  | 20%  | +14%
13 February 2024  | uComms[83][84] | 1,743  | 44.2%  | 25.2%  | 25.2%  | +19% | 41.7% | 18.7%  | 31.2%  | +23%
13 December 2023  | uComms[86] | 1,143  | 38.4%  | 25.9%  | 35.6%  | +12.5% | —  | —  | —  | —
Date  | Polling firm  | Sample  | Palaszczuk | Crisafulli
Satisfied  | Dissatisfied  | Don't Know  | Net  | Satisfied  | Dissatisfied  | Don't Know  | Net
September – December 2023  | Resolve Strategic[87][88] | 940  | —  | —  | —  | –17% | —  | —  | —  | +9%
4–10 October 2023  | YouGov[89] | 1,013  | 32%  | 52% | 16%  | –20% | 37%  | 26%  | 37%  | +11%
September – December 2023  | Resolve Strategic[87][88] | 940  | —  | —  | —  | –17% | —  | —  | —  | +9%
May – August 2023  | Resolve Strategic[94] | 943  | —  | —  | —  | –15% | —  | —  | —  | +7%
29 June – 2 July 2023  | AFR/Freshwater Strategy[95] | 1,065  | 39%  | 47% | 14%  | –8% | —  | —  | —  | —
1–8 December 2022  | YouGov[98] | ~1,000  | 40%  | 41% | 19%  | –1% | 31%  | 27%  | 42%  | +4%
23–30 June 2022  | YouGov[100] | ~1,000  | 45% | 30%  | 16%  | +15% | 31%  | 23%  | 46% | +8%
18–23 February 2022  | YouGov[101] | ~1,000  | 50% | 36%  | 14%  | +14% | —  | —  | —  | —

## See also

[edit]

* List of political parties in Queensland
* Crisafulli ministry
* 2024 Queensland Labor Party leadership election

## Notes

[edit]

1. ^ a b Labor lost the seat of Ipswich West to the LNP at a by-election in 2024, increasing the LNP's seat total to 35 and decreasing Labor's seat total to 51.
2. ^ MP for Mirani Stephen Andrew left One Nation after being disendorsed, and joined the KAP shortly thereafter.
3. ^ Zanow was elected at the 2024 Ipswich West state by-election after the resignation of Labor MP Jim Madden. The LNP's margin at the by-election was 3.5%.
4. ^ Andrew was elected as a One Nation member but left to join Katter's Australian Party (KAP) after his disendorsement.
5. ^ Independents: 8%, Other parties: 2%
6. ^ Independents: 10%, Other parties: 1%
7. ^ Independents: 7%, Other parties: 3%

## References

[edit]

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