2024 Rio de Janeiro mayoral election

2024 Rio de Janeiro municipal election

* * *

| <- 2020 | 6 October 2024 (2024-10-06) (first round)
27 October 2024 (2024-10-27) (second round, if necessary) | 2028 ->

|
|

Mayoral election

Opinion polls
|  |  |  |

|
|
|

Candidate  | Eduardo Paes | Alexandre Ramagem | Tarcísio Motta
Party  | PSD | PL | PSOL
Alliance  | It's Rio Moving Forward | Courage to Change | The Rio Deserves Much More
Running mate  | Eduardo Cavaliere | Índia Armelau | Renata Souza

* * *

| Incumbent Mayor

Eduardo Paes
PSD

|

Parliamentary election

| Party | Leader  | Current seats

|
|

Municipal Chamber
PSD | —  | 13
PSOL | —  | 6
MDB | —  | 5
PT | —  | 4
Republicanos | —  | 4
PL | —  | 3
UNIÃO | —  | 3
PP | —  | 3
PDT | —  | 2
Agir | —  | 1
PRD | —  | 1
NOVO | —  | 1
PSDB | —  | 1
DC | —  | 1
Solidarity | —  | 1
PV | —  | 1
MOBILIZA | —  | 1

The 2024 Rio de Janeiro municipal election will take place in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on 6 October 2024. Voters will elect a mayor, vice mayor, and 51 city council members. The incumbent mayor, Eduardo Paes of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), is able to run for a second term.[1][2]

If the most voted candidate on the first round doesn't achieve more than 50% of the votes, a second round will happen on 27 October 2024. The mayor's term will begin on 1 January 2025 and end on 31 December 2028.[3]

## Background

[edit]

### 2020 Rio de Janeiro mayoral election

[edit]

The last mayoral election in Rio de Janeiro, held in 2020, resulted in a largest victory of Eduardo Paes (DEM) in the second round. Paes obtained 1,629,319 votes (64.07% of the valid votes), while his opponent and former mayor Marcelo Crivella obtained 913,700 votes (or circa of 35.93% of the valid votes). Crivella attempted his own re-election and lost by a difference of 28 points.[4]

An opinion poll conducted by Paraná Pesquisas in November 2023 asked Rio's citizens what they thought of Paes' government. His approval rate was 59.6% and those who disapproved of his management of the city were 35.3%.[5]

## Electoral calendar

[edit]

Electoral calendar announced by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) on 3 January 2024[6] 7 March – 5 April  | Period of the 'party window' for councillors. During this period, the councillors are able to move to other political parties in order to run for election while not losing their respective political terms.

|

6 April  | Deadline for all parties and party federations to obtain the registration of their statutes at the Superior Electoral Court and for all candidates to have their electoral domicile in the constituency in which they wish to contest the elections with the affiliation granted by the party.
15 May  | Start of the preliminary fundraising campaign in the form of collective financing for potential candidates. During this period, candidates are not allowed to ask for votes and are still subjected to obey the rules regarding electoral propaganda on the Internet.
20 July – 5 August  | On this date, party conventions begin to deliberate on coalitions and choose candidates for mayors and councillors tickets. Parties have until 15 August to register their names with the Brazilian Election Justice.
16 August  | Beginning of electoral campaigns on an equal basis, with any advertising or demonstration explicitly requesting for votes before the date being considered irregular and subject to fines.
30 August –3 October  | Broadcasting of free electoral propaganda on radio and television.
6 October  | Date of mayoral elections.
27 October  | Date of a possible second round in cities with more than 200,000 voters in which the most voted candidate for mayor has not reached 50% of the valid votes.

## Candidates

[edit]

### Confirmed candidates

[edit]

Party  | Mayoral candidate  | Vice mayoral candidate[a] | Coalition  | Ref.

|
|
|
|

Progressistas
(PP 11)  |  | Marcelo Queiroz

* Federal Deputy (2023–present)
* State Deputy (2018–2019)
* Councillor (2013–2017)

|  | Teresa Bergher (PSDB)

* Councillor (2017–present)

| The Rio Has a Option

* Progressistas (PP)
* Always Forward (PSDB, Cidadania)

| [7]

United Socialist Workers' Party
(PSTU 16)  |  | Cyro Garcia

* Federal Deputy (1992–1993)

|  | Paula Falcão

* Women's Rights Activist
* Leader of the collective group Women in Struggle Movement

| —  | [8]

Liberal Party
(PL 22)  |  | Alexandre Ramagem

* Federal Deputy (2023–present)
* Director of the Brazilian Intelligence Agency (2019–2022)

|  | Índia Armelau

* State Deputy (2023–present)

| Courage to Change

* Liberal Party (PL)
* Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB)
* Republicanos

| [9]

[10]

Workers' Cause Party
(PCO 29)  |  | Henrique Simonard

* Editor of the Workers' Cause Newspaper

|  | Caetano Sigiliano

* University Student

| —  | [11]

New Party
(NOVO 30)  |  | Carol Sponza

* Lawyer and Master in Public Policies

|  | Alexandre Popó

* Businessman

| —  | [12]

Brazil Union
(UNIÃO 44)  |  | Rodrigo Amorim

* State Deputy (2019–present)

|  | Fred Pacheco (MOBILIZA)

* State Deputy (2023–present)

| Strength to Change

* Brazil Union (UNIÃO)
* National Mobilization (MOBILIZA)
* Brazilian Labour Renewal Party (PRTB)

| [13]

Socialism and Liberty Party
(PSOL 50)  |  | Tarcísio Motta

* Federal Deputy (2023–present)
* Councillor (2017–2023)

|  | Renata Souza

* State Deputy (2019–present)

| The Rio Deserves Much More

* PSOL REDE Federation (PSOL, REDE)
* Brazilian Communist Party (PCB)

| [14]

[15]

Social Democratic Party
(PSD 55)  |  | Eduardo Paes

* Mayor of Rio de Janeiro (2021–present, 2009–2017)
* Federal Deputy (1999–2006)
* Councillor (1997–1999)

|  | Eduardo Cavaliere

* State Deputy (2023–present)

| It's Rio Moving Forward

* Social Democratic Party (PSD)
* Democratic Labour Party (PDT)
* Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB)
* Brazil of Hope (PT, PCdoB, PV)
* Avante
* Solidariedade
* Act (AGIR)
* Podemos (PODE)
* Democratic Renewal Party (PRD)
* Christian Democracy (DC)

| [16]

[17]

Popular Unity
(UP 80)  |  | Juliete Pantoja

* Teacher and Population Educator

|  | Vinícius Benevides

* Activist of the Movement for Struggle in Neighborhoods, Towns and Favelas

| —  | [18]

### Withdrawn candidates

[edit]

* Martha Rocha (PDT) – State Deputy of Rio de Janeiro (2015–present). She announced her support to Paes' reelection bid on 28 March 2024.[19]

* Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) – State Deputy of Rio de Janeiro (2003–2019) and Senator for Rio de Janeiro (2019–present).[20]
* Pedro Duarte (NOVO) – Councillor of Rio de Janeiro (2021–present). He'll run for re-election as a councillor in a decision taken along with his party.[21]
* Otoni de Paula (MDB) – Federal Deputy from Rio de Janeiro (2019–present) and Councillor of Rio de Janeiro (2017–2019); he withdrew his candidacy on 14 June 2024 to take over the campaign coordination of Eduardo Paes with the Evangelical Christians.[22]
* Dani Balbi (PCdoB) – State Deputy of Rio de Janeiro (2023–present). The Communist Party of Brazil withdrew her candidacy in order to support Paes' campaign.[23]
* Cabo Daciolo (Republicanos) – Federal Deputy from Rio de Janeiro (2015–2019). His candidacy was withdrawn on 31 July 2024 after the party decided to support Alexandre Ramagem's candidacy.[24]

## Outgoing Municipal Chamber

[edit]

The result of the last municipal election and the current situation in the Municipal Chamber is given below:

Affiliation  | Members  | +/–

|
|

Elected[25] | Current[26][b]
| PSD | 3  | 13  | 10
| PSOL | 7  | 6  | 1
| MDB | 1  | 5  | 4
| PT | 3  | 4  | 1
| Republicanos | 7  | 4  | 3
| UNIÃO | didn't exist | 3  | 3
| PP | 2  | 3  | 1
| PL | 2  | 3  | 1
| PDT | 1  | 2  | 1
| PRD | didn't exist | 1  | 1
| PSDB | 0  | 1  | 1
| PV | 0  | 1  | 1
| NOVO | 1  | 1  |
| Solidarity | 1  | 1  |
| Agir | 1  | 1[c] |
| DC | 1  | 1  |
| MOBILIZA | 1  | 1[d] |
| PODE | 1  | 0  | 1
| PROS | 1  | extinct party[e] | 1
| Patriota | 1  | extinct party[f] | 1
| PSL | 1  | extinct party[g] | 1
| Cidadania | 2  | 0  | 2
| PTB | 2  | extinct party[h] | 2
| PSC | 2  | extinct party[i] | 2
| Avante | 3  | 0  | 3
| DEM | 7  | extinct party[j] | 7
Total  | 51

## Opinion polls

[edit]

### First round

[edit]

2024

Pollster/client(s)  | Date(s)

conducted

| Sample

size

| Paes
PSD | Ramagem
PL | Motta
PSOL | Queiroz
PP | Garcia
PSTU | Amorim
UNIÃO | Sponza
NOVO | Pantoja
UP | Simonard
PCO | Others  | Abst.
Undec.  | Lead

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Datafolha | 3–4 September  | 1,106  | 59% | 11%  | 6%  | 1%  | 1%  | 2%  | 1%  | 1%  | 0%  | —  | 18%  | 48%
Real Time Big Data | 30–31 August  | 1,000  | 58% | 14%  | 8%  | 1%  | 1%  | 2%  | 1%  | 0%  | 0%  | —  | 15%  | 44%
30 August  | Beginning of the period of electoral propaganda on radio and television.[34]
Quaest | 25–27 August  | 1,140  | 60% | 9%  | 5%  | 1%  | 3%  | 1%  | 1%  | 1%  | 0%  | —  | 19%  | 51%
26% | 5%  | 1%  | —  | —  | —  | —  | —  | —  | —  | 68%  | 21%
Datafolha | 20–21 August  | 1,106  | 56% | 9%  | 7%  | 2%  | 2%  | 3%  | 1%  | 1%  | 0%  | —  | 18%  | 47%
32% | 6%  | 2%  | —  | —  | —  | —  | —  | —  | 4%  | 57%  | 26%
Futura/100% Cidades | 6–11 August  | 1,000  | 61.2% | 9.9%  | 5%  | 0.2%  | 1.5%  | 1.9%  | 0.3%  | 0.5%  | 0.1%  | 4.8%[k] | 14.6%  | 51.3%
49.8% | 10.1%  | 8.3%  | 1%  | 7.9%  | 3.7%  | 0.5%  | 0.9%  | —  | —  | 17.8%  | 39.7%
Atlas/Intel | 2–7 August  | 1,600  | 45.8% | 32.3%  | 12.9%  | 1.4%  | 0.7%  | 1.2%  | 2.6%  | 0.3%  | 0%  | —  | 2.7%  | 13.5%
Prefab Future | 30 July  | 1,004  | 43.6% | 6.9%  | 4%  | 2.3%  | 2.1%  | 1.7%  | 0.8%  | 0.6%  | 0%  | —  | 38%  | 36.7%
70.3% | 11.1%  | 6.5%  | 3.7%  | 3.4%  | 2.7%  | 1.3%  | 1%  | 0%  | —  | [l] | 59.2%
30 July  | Cabo Daciolo's candidacy (Republicanos) is withdrawn by his party in support of Alexandre Ramagem's (PL) candidacy.[24]
Pollster/client(s)  | Date(s)

conducted

| Sample

size

| Paes
PSD | Ramagem
PL | Motta
PSOL | Garcia
PSTU | Amorim
UNIÃO | Pantoja
UP | Queiroz
PP | Sponza
NOVO | Simonard
PCO | Others  | Abst.
Undec.  | Lead
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Agência de Notícias das Favelas (ANF) | 25–27 July  | 774[m] | 40% | 4%  | 4%  | 3%  | 1%  | 1%  | 1%  | —  | —  | 2%[n] | 44%  | 36%
Quaest | 19–22 July  | 1,104  | 49% | 13%  | 7%  | 3%  | 3%  | 2%  | 2%  | 1%  | 0%  | —  | 19%  | 36%
52% | 14%  | 10%  | —  | 3%  | —  | 2%  | —  | —  | —  | 19%  | 38%
16 July  | Dani Balbi's candidacy is withdrawn by the Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB) in order to support Paes' reelection bid.[23]
Pollster/client(s)  | Date(s)

conducted

| Sample

size

| Paes
PSD | Ramagem
PL | Motta
PSOL | Daciolo
Republicanos | Amorim
UNIÃO | Sponza
NOVO | Garcia
PSTU | Queiroz
PP | Balbi
PCdoB | Others  | Abst.
Undec.  | Lead
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Datafolha | 2–4 July  | 840  | 53% | 7%  | 9%  | —  | 2%  | 0%  | 3%  | 2%  | 1%  | 3%[o] | 19%  | 44%
55% | 7%  | 10%  | —  | —  | 1%  | 4%  | —  | —  | 20%  | 45%
Futura/100% Cidades | 20–26 June  | 1,000  | 51.6% | 8.4%  | 6.1%  | —  | 1.4%  | 0.3%  | 1.4%  | 0.6%  | 0.6%  | 3.8%[p] | 25.8%  | 43.2%
Quaest | 13–16 June  | 1,145  | 51% | 11%  | 8%  | —  | 4%  | —  | —  | 2%  | —  | —  | 24%  | 40%
47%[q] | 29%[r] | 5%  | —  | 1%  | —  | —  | —  | —  | —  | 17%  | 18%
14 June  | Otoni de Paula withdraws his candidacy and joins Eduardo Paes' campaign.[22]
11 May–5 June  | Pedro Duarte withdraws his potential candidacy to run for his reelection bid as a councillor of Rio de Janeiro.
Carol Sponza is announced as a potential mayoral candidate of the New Party (NOVO).[21]
Cabo Daciolo is announced as a potential mayoral candidate of the Republicans.[35]
Pollster/client(s)  | Date(s)

conducted

| Sample

size

| Paes
PSD | Ramagem
PL | Motta
PSOL | Otoni
MDB | Amorim
UNIÃO | Duarte
NOVO | Garcia
PSTU | Queiroz
PP | Balbi
PCdoB | Others  | Abst.
Undec.  | Lead
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Paraná Pesquisas | 24–29 April  | 800  | 46.1% | 13.6%  | 7.4%  | 3%  | 2.1%  | 1.6%  | 4.5%  | 1.9%  | 2.8%  | —  | 17%  | 32.5%
46.8% | 15.6%  | 8.1%  | —  | —  | —  | 5.1%  | 2.8%  | 3.4%  | —  | 18.3%  | 31.2%
Prefab Future | 27–28 April  | 1,019  | 35% | 3.2%  | 5.4%  | 3.1%  | 2.5%  | 1.2%  | 0.8%  | 2.6%  | —  | —  | 46.2%  | 29.6%
65.1% | 6%  | 10%  | 5.8%  | 4.6%  | 2.2%  | 1.5%  | 4.8%  | —  | —  | [s] | 55.1%
Atlas Intel | 18–23 April  | 1,239  | 42.6% | 31.2%  | 12.7%  | 2.3%  | —  | 3.8%  | —  | 0.5%  | 1.3%  | —  | 5.5%  | 11.4%
Futura/100% Cidades | 11–22 April  | 1,000  | 44.1% | 9%  | 7.8%  | 3.4%  | 1%  | 0.9%  | 2.4%  | 0.8%  | 0.4%  | 5%[t] | 25.1%  | 35.1%
42.2% | —  | 7.2%  | 3.5%  | —  | 0.8%  | —  | —  | 1.3%  | 26%[u] | 19%  | 16.2%
48.6% | 10.2%  | 9.8%  | —  | —  | 1.4%  | —  | —  | 1.7%  | —  | 28.3%  | 38.4%
Prefab Future | 1–2 April  | 1,005  | 38.2% | 3.9%  | 7.9%  | 3.4%  | 1.7%  | 1.4%  | 0.7%  | 3%  | —  | —  | 39.8%  | 30.3%
28 March  | Martha Rocha announces her support to Paes' reelection, along with the Democratic Labour Party (PDT).[19]
Pollster/client(s)  | Date(s)

conducted

| Sample

size

| Paes
PSD | Ramagem
PL | Motta
PSOL | Otoni
MDB | Amorim
UNIÃO | Duarte
NOVO | Garcia
PSTU | Queiroz
PP | Balbi
PCdoB | Others  | Abst.
Undec.  | Lead
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Real Time Big Data | 22–23 March  | 1,000  | 40% | 13%  | 9%  | 6%  | 4%  | 2%  | 2%  | 1%  | 0%  | 8%[v] | 15%  | 27%

2023

Pollster/client(s)  | Date(s)

conducted

| Sample

size

| Paes
PSD | Ramagem
PL | Motta
PSOL | Rocha
PDT | Otoni
MDB | Amorim
PRD | Freixo
PT | Molon
PSB | Queiroz
PP | Duarte
NOVO | Others  | Abst.
Undec.  | Lead

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
AtlasIntel[36] | 25–30 December  | 800  | 36.2% | 19.1%  | 17.8%  | —  | 6.9%  | —  | —  | —  | —  | 2.5%  | —  | 17.4%  | 17.1%
Paraná Pesquisas[37] | 17–20 November  | 810  | 44.4% | 9.6%  | 7.2%  | 8.1%  | —  | 2.7%  | —  | 5.4%  | 0.9%  | —  | —  | 21.6%  | 34.8%
43.1% | 9.4%  | 6.8%  | 7.5%  | 4.2%  | 2.3%  | —  | 5.2%  | 0.9%  | —  | —  | 20.6%  | 33.7%
1 November  | Former president of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro (PL) nominates Alexandre Ramagem (PL) as a potential candidate for mayor in the 2024 elections.[38]
Pollster/client(s)  | Date(s)

conducted

| Sample

size

| Paes
PSD | Portinho
PL | Motta
PSOL | Rocha
PDT | Otoni
MDB | Amorim
PTB | Freixo
PT | Luizinho
PP | Pampolha
UNIÃO | Duarte
NOVO | Others  | Abst.
Undec.  | Lead
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Prefab Future[39] | 18–20 August  | 1,000  | 34.8% | 1.1%  | 10.1%  | —  | 6.1%  | —  | —  | 2.1%  | 2.6%  | 3.1%  | —  | 44.8%  | 24.7%
32.2% | 0.8%  | 8.9%  | —  | 5.2%  | 2.4%  | —  | —  | —  | 2.2%  | 1.3%[w] | 47%  | 23.3%
Gerp[40] | 9–14 August  | 600  | 31% | —  | —  | —  | —  | —  | 10%  | —  | —  | —  | 10%[x] | 49%  | 21%
31 May  | Flávio Bolsonaro withdraws his potential candidacy for mayor in the 2024 elections.[20]
Pollster/client(s)  | Date(s)

conducted

| Sample

size

| Paes
PSD | Flávio
PL | Motta
PSOL | Rocha
PDT | Crivella
Republicanos | Pazuello
PL | Renata
PSOL | Luizinho
PP | Pampolha
UNIÃO | Alencar
PSOL | Others  | Abst.
Undec.  | Lead
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Brasmarket[41] | 17–19 April  | 1,100  | 25.4% | 16.9%  | 6.2%  | —  | —  | —  | —  | 2.1%  | —  | —  | 4.6%[y] | 44.9%  | 8.5%
25.4% | 16.5%  | 5.7%  | 4.5%  | —  | 1.6%  | —  | 1.3%  | —  | —  | 10.6%[z] | 35.3%  | 8.9%
27.6% | 18.5%  | 6.5%  | —  | 2.5%  | —  | —  | —  | —  | —  | —  | 37.3%  | 9.1%
26.7%[aa] | 26.8%[ab] | 4.9%[ac] | 6%[ad] | 4.7%[ae] | —  | —  | —  | —  | —  | —  | 30.8%  | 0.1%
Prefab Future[42] | 27–29 March  | 1,565  | 34.5% | —  | 4.1%  | —  | —  | —  | —  | 2.1%  | 2.6%  | —  | 3.9%[af] | 52.8%  | 30.4%
31.4% | 4.5%  | 4%  | 3.6%  | —  | 1.1%  | —  | 2.1%  | 2.2%  | —  | 5.6%[ag] | 45.5%  | 26.9%
Paraná Pesquisas[43] | 2–5 March  | 1,000  | 35.5% | 22.1%  | 7.1%  | —  | —  | —  | —  | 3%  | 2.4%  | —  | 8.5%[ah] | 21.4%  | 13.4%
37.2% | 23.3%  | 9.5%  | —  | —  | —  | —  | 3.2%  | —  | —  | 3%[ai] | 23.8%  | 13.9%
34.4% | —  | 7.6%  | —  | —  | —  | —  | 2.9%  | 2.7%  | —  | 24.9%[aj] | 27.5%  | 20.1%
Instituto Rio21 | 9–12 January  | 1,476  | 31.3% | 27.7%  | 11.84%  | 5.88%  | 4.06%  | —  | —  | —  | —  | —  | —  | 19.21%  | 3.6%
33.8% | —  | —  | 7.13%  | 4.65%  | 26.13%  | 7.76%  | —  | —  | —  | —  | 20.46%  | 7.67%
30.24% | —  | —  | 7.51%  | —  | —  | —  | 13.62%  | 2.93%  | 12.63%  | —  | 33.77%  | 16.62%
27.1% | —  | —  | 7.05%  | —  | —  | —  | 13.52%  | —  | —  | 27.92%[ak] | 24.44%  | 12.58%
34.14% | —  | —  | 8.24%  | —  | —  | —  | —  | —  | —  | 21.01%[al] | 36.58%  | 25.9%
33.3% | —  | —  | 9.18%  | —  | —  | —  | —  | —  | —  | 18.28%[am] | 39.21%  | 24.15%

### Second round

[edit]

Eduardo Paes and Alexandre Ramagem

Pollster/client(s)  | Date(s)

conducted

| Sample

size

| Paes
PSD | Ramagem
PL | Abst.
Undec.  | Lead

|
|
|
|
|
|

Real Time Big Data | 30–31 August 2024  | 1,000  | 60% | 25%  | 15%  | 35%
Datafolha | 20–21 August 2024  | 1,106  | 68% | 18%  | 14%  | 50%
Atlas/Intel | 2–7 August 2024  | 1,600  | 57.5% | 36%  | 6.5%  | 21.5%
Quaest | 19–22 July 2024  | 1,104  | 62% | 25%  | 13%  | 37%
Futura/100% Cidades | 20–26 June 2024  | 1,000  | 63.8% | 20.1%  | 16.1%  | 43.7%
Quaest | 13–16 June 2024  | 1,145  | 57% | 27%  | 16%  | 30%
Atlas Intel | 18–23 April 2024  | 1,239  | 51% | 36.7%  | 12.3%  | 14.3%
Real Time Big Data | 22–23 March 2024  | 1,000  | 55% | 29%  | 16%  | 26%

Eduardo Paes and Tarcísio Motta

Pollster/client(s)  | Date(s)

conducted

| Sample

size

| Paes
PSD | Motta
PSOL | Abst.
Undec.  | Lead

|
|
|
|
|
|

Datafolha | 20–21 August 2024  | 1,106  | 62% | 21%  | 17%  | 41%
Atlas/Intel | 2–7 August 2024  | 1,600  | 47.8% | 26%  | 26.2%  | 21.8%
Quaest | 19–22 July 2024  | 1,104  | 57% | 24%  | 19%  | 33%
Futura/100% Cidades | 20–26 June 2024  | 1,000  | 61.9% | 17.6%  | 20.5%  | 44.3%
Atlas Intel | 18–23 April 2024  | 1,239  | 50.3% | 21%  | 28.7%  | 29.3%
Real Time Big Data | 22–23 March 2024  | 1,000  | 64% | 20%  | 16%  | 44%

Hypothetical scenario with Martha Rocha

Eduardo Paes and Martha Rocha (withdrawn)

Pollster/client(s)  | Date(s)

conducted

| Sample

size

| Paes
PSD | Rocha
PDT | Abst.
Undec.  | Lead

|
|
|
|
|
|

Real Time Big Data | 22–23 March 2024  | 1,000  | 58% | 27%  | 15%  | 31%

Hypothetical scenario with Flávio Bolsonaro (withdrawn)

Eduardo Paes and Flávio Bolsonaro (withdrawn)

Pollster/client(s)  | Date(s)

conducted

| Sample

size

| Paes
PSD | Flávio
PL | Abst.
Undec.  | Lead

|
|
|
|
|
|

Futura/100% Cidades | 11–22 April 2024  | 1,000  | 53.8% | 32%  | 14.2%  | 21.8%

### Rejection of candidates

[edit]

In some opinion polls, the interviewee can choose more than one alternative (the so-called "multiple rejection"), therefore, the sum of the percentages of all candidates can exceed 100% of the votes in some scenarios.

Pollster/client(s)  | Date(s)
conducted  | Sample
size  | Paes
PSD | Motta
PSOL | Ramagem
PL | Garcia
PSTU | Queiroz
PP | Amorim
UNIÃO | Pantoja
UP | Simonard
PCO | Sponza
NOVO | Could vote
in anyone  | Others  | Abst.
Undec.

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Quaest | 25–27 August 2024  | 1,140  | 26%  | 38%  | 27%  | 43% | 26%  | 23%  | 12%  | 11%  | 8%  | —  | —  | —
Datafolha | 20–21 August 2024  | 1,106  | 19%  | 22%  | 23%  | 24% | 15%  | 16%  | 14%  | 14%  | 16%  | 8%[an] | —  | 11%
Futura/100% Cidades | 6–11 August 2024  | 1,000  | 14.7%  | 24%  | —  | 25%  | —  | —  | 24%  | —  | —  | —  | 28.6%[ao] | —
Prefab Future | 30 July 2024  | 1,004  | 17.6% | 10.4%  | 10.4%  | 10.3%  | 4.5%  | 3.3%  | 2.2%  | 1.5%  | 1.4%  | 9.1%  | —  | 29.3%
30 July 2024  | Cabo Daciolo's candidacy (Republicanos) is withdrawn by his party in support of Alexandre Ramagem's (PL) candidacy.[24]
14 June–16 July 2024  | Otoni de Paula withdraws his candidacy and joins Eduardo Paes' campaign.[22] Dani Balbi's candidacy is withdrawn by the Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB) in order to support Paes' election bid.[23]
11 May–5 June 2024  | Pedro Duarte withdraws his potential candidacy to run for his re-election bid as a councillor of Rio de Janeiro.
Carol Sponza is announced as the mayoral candidate of the New Party (NOVO).[21]
Cabo Daciolo is announced as a potential mayoral candidate of the Republicans.[35]
Pollster/client(s)  | Date(s)
conducted  | Sample
size  | Paes
PSD | Ramagem
PL | Motta
PSOL | Otoni
MDB | Amorim
UNIÃO | Duarte
NOVO | Garcia
PSTU | Queiroz
PP | Balbi
PCdoB | Could vote
in anyone  | Others  | Abst.
Undec.
Paraná Pesquisas | 24–29 April 2024  | 800  | 25.4% | 18.3%  | 14.1%  | 8.4%  | 11.4%  | 8.8%  | 23.4%  | 11.5%  | 8.9%  | —  | —  | 15%
Prefab Future | 27–28 April 2024  | 1,019  | 22% | 4.5%  | 9.1%  | 2%  | 2.6%  | 2.6%  | 10.3%  | 2.7%  | —  | 12%  | —  | 32.2%
Prefab Future | 1–2 April 2024  | 1,005  | 16.4% | 3.6%  | 6.4%  | 3.3%  | 1.6%  | 1%  | 9%  | 2.7%  | —  | 19.6%  | —  | 36.4%
1 November 2023–28 March 2024  | Former president of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro (PL) nominates Alexandre Ramagem (PL) as a potential candidate for mayor in the 2024 elections.[38]Martha Rocha announces her support to Paes' reelection, along with the Democratic Labour Party (PDT).[19]
Pollster/client(s)  | Date(s)
conducted  | Sample
size  | Paes
PSD | Portinho
PL | Motta
PSOL | Luizinho
PP | Pampolha
UNIÃO | Otoni
MDB | Duarte
NOVO | Amorim
PTB | Queiroz
PP | Could vote
in anyone  | Others  | Abst.
Undec.
Prefab Future | 18–20 August 2023  | 1,000  | 20% | 3.8%  | 10.9%  | —  | —  | 4.5%  | 1.9%  | 2.6%  | —  | 15.7%  | 10%[ap] | 30.6%
31 May 2023  | Flávio Bolsonaro withdraws his potential candidacy for mayor in the 2024 elections.[20]
Pollster/client(s)  | Date(s)
conducted  | Sample
size  | Paes
PSD | Flávio
PL | Motta
PSOL | Luizinho
PP | Pampolha
UNIÃO | Otoni
MDB | Duarte
NOVO | Amorim
PTB | Queiroz
PP | Could vote
in anyone  | Others  | Abst.
Undec.
Prefab Future | 27–29 March 2023  | 1,565  | 19.4%  | 35% | 6.3%  | 1.4%  | 1.7%  | 1%  | —  | —  | —  | 4.9%  | 6.3%[aq] | 24%

## Notelist

[edit]

1. ^ Same party as the mayoral candidate, unless mentioned in parentheses
2. ^ Between March and April 2024, councilors were able to change parties during the so-called "party window" without losing their respective terms.[27]
3. ^ The Christian Labor Party (PTC) changed its name to Agir (Act) in March 2022.[28]
4. ^ The National Mobilization Party (PMN) changed its name to National Mobilization (MOBILIZA) in December 2023.[29]
5. ^ The Republican Party of the Social Order (PROS) merged into Solidariedade in February 2023.[30]
6. ^ Brazilian Labour Party (PTB) and Patriota merged into the Democratic Renewal Party (PRD) in November 2023.[31]
7. ^ Democrats (DEM) and the Social Liberal Party (PSL) merged into the Brazil Union in February 2022.[32]
8. ^ Brazilian Labour Party (PTB) and Patriota merged into the Democratic Renewal Party (PRD) in November 2023.[31]
9. ^ The Social Christian Party (PSC) merged into Podemos in June 2023.[33]
10. ^ Democrats (DEM) and the Social Liberal Party (PSL) merged into the Brazil Union in February 2022.[32]
11. ^ Cabo Daciolo (Republicanos)
12. ^ Valid votes
13. ^ Electoral survey conducted with residents of the Rio de Janeiro communities (South Zone, North Zone, West Zone, and Central Zone)
14. ^ Dani Balbi (PCdoB)
15. ^ Juliete Pantoja (UP)
16. ^ Otoni de Paula (MDB) with 2.4%; Juliete Pantoja (UP) with 0.7% and Henrique Simonard (PCO) with 0.7%
17. ^ If endorsed by president Lula (PT)
18. ^ If endorsed by former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL)
19. ^ Valid votes
20. ^ Martha Rocha (PDT)
21. ^ Flávio Bolsonaro (PL)
22. ^ Martha Rocha (PDT)
23. ^ Indio da Costa (UNIÃO)
24. ^ Walter Braga Netto (PL) with 10%
25. ^ Otoni de Paula (MDB)
26. ^ Bandeira de Mello (PSB) with 6.5% and Otoni de Paula (MDB) with 4.1%
27. ^ If endorsed by president Lula (PT).
28. ^ If endorsed by his father and former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
29. ^ If endorsed by the federal deputy Guilherme Boulos (PSOL).
30. ^ If endorsed by Ciro Gomes (PDT).
31. ^ If endorsed by former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
32. ^ Otoni de Paula (MDB)
33. ^ Bandeira de Mello (PSB) with 2.9% and Otoni de Paula (MDB) with 2.7%
34. ^ Lindbergh Farias (PT) with 5.9% and Otoni de Paula (MDB) with 2.6%
35. ^ Otoni de Paula (MDB)
36. ^ Romário (PL) with 14.3%; Lindbergh Farias (PT) with 5.4% and Otoni de Paula (MDB) with 5.2%
37. ^ Marcelo Freixo (PT) with 14.52% and Carlos Portinho (PL) with 13.4%
38. ^ Rodrigo Amorim (PTB) with 7.41%; Clarissa Garotinho (UNIÃO) with 7.37% and Talíria Petrone (PSOL) with 6.23%
39. ^ Clarissa Garotinho (UNIÃO) with 7.72%; Tainá de Paula (PT) with 5.94% and Alexandre Freitas (PODE) with 4.62%
40. ^ 3% of respondents said they would vote for either candidate, and 5% said they would not vote for either candidate.
41. ^ Cabo Daciolo (Republicanos)
42. ^ Indio da Costa (UNIÃO)
43. ^ Eduardo Pazuello (PL) with 2.4%; Martha Rocha (PDT) with 2.3% and Bandeira de Mello (PSB) with 1.6%

## References

[edit]

1. ^ Fernandes, Danielly; Castro, Grasielle (22 January 2024). "Quem são os possíveis candidatos a prefeito do Rio de Janeiro nas eleições municipais 2024". Jota (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 28 January 2024.
2. ^ Alves, Renato (18 January 2024). "Confira quem são os pré-candidatos a prefeito do Rio de Janeiro em 2024". O Tempo (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 28 January 2024.
3. ^ Veloso, Natália (2023-10-06). "1º turno da eleição 2024 será em 6 de outubro; leia principais datas". Poder360 (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-04-24.
4. ^ "Rio de Janeiro/RJ: Apuração em tempo real de prefeito no 2º turno". noticias.uol.com.br (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-04-26.
5. ^ "Paes é favorito para Prefeitura do Rio de Janeiro em 2024". Poder360 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2023-11-23. Retrieved 2024-04-26.
6. ^ "Confira as principais datas do ano eleitoral de 2024". Tribunal Superior Eleitoral. 2024-01-03. Retrieved 2024-03-27.
7. ^ "PP oficializa candidatura de Marcelo Queiroz à prefeitura do Rio". O Globo (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-07-31. Retrieved 2024-08-06.
8. ^ "PSTU oficializa candidatura de Cyro Garcia para prefeito do Rio". G1 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-07-24. Retrieved 2024-07-26.
9. ^ "PL oficializa a candidatura de Alexandre Ramagem à Prefeitura do Rio". G1 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-07-22. Retrieved 2024-08-06.
10. ^ "PL define chapa 'puro-sangue' no Rio com deputada na vice de Ramagem". O Globo (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-08-05. Retrieved 2024-08-06.
11. ^ "PCO oficializa candidatura de Henrique Simonard à Prefeitura do Rio de Janeiro". G1 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2020-09-30. Retrieved 2024-08-06.
12. ^ "Partido Novo oficializa candidatura de Carol Sponza para prefeita do Rio". G1 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-07-23. Retrieved 2024-07-26.
13. ^ "Alternativa do bolsonarismo, Amorim oficializa candidatura à prefeitura do Rio e ataca Paes: 'Sem palavra'". O Globo (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-08-05. Retrieved 2024-08-06.
14. ^ "Vereador Pedro Duarte retira pré-candidatura para a Prefeitura do Rio, e Novo anuncia Carol Sponza". G1 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-05-11. Retrieved 2024-05-20.
15. ^ "PSOL oficializa a candidatura de Tarcísio Motta à prefeitura do Rio de Janeiro". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-08-02. Retrieved 2024-08-06.
16. ^ Barros, Henrique Sales (24 April 2024). "Paes has 42.6% and Ramagem, 31.2%, says Atlas/CNN survey in Rio". CNN Brazil (in Brazilian Portuguese). Archived from the original on 23 June 2024. Retrieved 23 June 2024.
17. ^ "PSD confirma Eduardo Paes como candidato à reeleição para prefeitura do Rio". UOL (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-07-20. Retrieved 2024-08-06.
18. ^ Carlucci, Manoela. "UP oficializa candidatura de Juliete Pantoja à Prefeitura do Rio". CNN Brasil (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-08-06.
19. ^ a b c "PDT formaliza apoio à reeleição de Paes no Rio". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-03-29. Retrieved 2024-07-19.
20. ^ a b c Uribe, Gustavo (2023-05-31). "PL delega a Bolsonaro escolha de candidato do Rio em 2024". CNN Brasil. Retrieved 2024-04-26.
21. ^ a b c "Vereador Pedro Duarte retira pré-candidatura para a Prefeitura do Rio, e Novo anuncia Carol Sponza". G1 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-05-11. Retrieved 2024-07-26.
22. ^ a b c "Otoni de Paula desiste de pré-candidatura à prefeitura e assume coordenação de Paes com evangélicos". O Globo (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-06-14. Retrieved 2024-06-15.
23. ^ a b c "PCdoB vai apoiar candidatura de Paes à reeleição no Rio de Janeiro". PCdoB (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-07-19.
24. ^ a b c "PL e Republicanos discutem indicação de vice de Ramagem no Rio". Valor Econômico (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-07-30. Retrieved 2024-08-06.
25. ^ "Resultados da apuração para prefeito e vereadores do 1° turno - Rio de Janeiro - RJ | Eleições 2020 | Folha". Folha de S.Paulo (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-04-24.
26. ^ "Quem são | Vereadores". Câmara Municipal do Rio de Janeiro. Archived from the original on 2024-04-24. Retrieved 2024-04-24.
27. ^ "Partido do prefeito Eduardo Paes, PSD cresce na janela partidária e domina a Câmara do Rio". O Globo (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-04-04. Archived from the original on 2024-04-24. Retrieved 2024-04-24.
28. ^ "TSE aprova alteração e Partido Trabalhista Cristão passa a se chamar Agir". Justiça Eleitoral (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-04-24.
29. ^ "Plenário decide que PMN só pode manter uma entidade de direito privado destinada à pesquisa". Justiça Eleitoral (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-04-24.
30. ^ "TSE aprova fusão entre PROS e Solidariedade [14/02/2023]". noticias.uol.com.br (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-01-05.
31. ^ a b Estado, Agência (2024-01-04). "Fusão entre Patriota e PTB gera 3º maior partido do País com 1,02 mi de filiados". Política (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-01-05.
32. ^ a b "TSE aprova registro e estatuto do União Brasil, partido resultante da fusão entre DEM e PSL". G1 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2022-02-08. Retrieved 2024-01-05.
33. ^ "PSC é incorporado ao Podemos; decisão permite desbloqueio de fundo partidário". R7.com (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2023-06-17. Retrieved 2024-01-05.
34. ^ "Saiba quem será mais beneficiado na propaganda de TV e rádio no Rio de Janeiro". Gazeta do Povo (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-08-20. Retrieved 2024-09-04.
35. ^ a b "Cabo Daciolo será candidato à Prefeitura do Rio pelo Republicanos | Metrópoles". www.metropoles.com (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2024-06-05. Retrieved 2024-06-05.
36. ^ "Relatório AtlasIntel - Eleições 2024 - Prefeituras de Capitais Brasileiras" (PDF). Poder360. p. 29.
37. ^ "Paraná Pesquisa - Novembro de 2023" (PDF). Poder360. Retrieved 2024-04-26.
38. ^ a b República. "Escolha de Ramagem para prefeitura do Rio gera impasse no PL". Gazeta do Povo (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-04-27.
39. ^ https://diariodorio.com/eleicoes-2024-eduardo-paes-se-mantem-na-lideranca-tarcisio-motta-e-otoni-de-paula-crescem/
40. ^ https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/republica/pesquisa-gerp-paes-aparece-em-1o-lugar-no-rio-de-janeiro-para-eleicoes-2024/
41. ^ https://diariodorio.com/pesquisa-brasmarket-mostra-eduardo-paes-como-favorito-para-2024/
42. ^ https://diariodorio.com/prefab-aponta-que-eduardo-paes-lidera-disputa-pela-prefeitura-do-rio/
43. ^ "Paraná Pesquisas - Março de 2023" (PDF). Poder360. Retrieved 2024-04-26.

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