2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.

Not to be confused with 2024 Arizona Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

* * *

| <- 2018 | November 5, 2024 | 2030 ->

|
|

|  |  |

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Nominee  | Ruben Gallego | Kari Lake |
Party  | Democratic | Republican

* * *

| Incumbent U.S. senator

Kyrsten Sinema
Independent

|

Elections in Arizona

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|  List of Arizona ballot propositions

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Maricopa County

* 2024

Mesa

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Scottsdale

* 2008
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* v
* t
* e

The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Democratic congressman Ruben Gallego and Republican former news anchor Kari Lake are seeking their first term in office. The winner will succeed independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who is not seeking re-election after one term.[1][2] The election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[3]

Primary elections took place on July 30, 2024.[4] Gallego won the Democratic nomination without opposition, while Lake received 55% of the vote against Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb in the Republican primary. This is Arizona's second statewide election to have Lake as the Republican nominee, following her unsuccessful gubernatorial bid in 2022.

## Background

[edit]

The race is generally considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls and ratings have Gallego as the slight favorite to win.[5][6]

Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state and is seen as a purple state. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. As of May 2024, Democrats control the governorship and the state's other U.S. Senate seat, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and a 6-3 majority of Arizona's U.S. House's delegation.[7][8] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016,[9] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.[10]

## Independents

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Declined

[edit]

* Kyrsten Sinema, incumbent U.S. senator (2019–present)[2]

### Endorsements

[edit]

Kyrsten Sinema (declined to run)

U.S. senators

* Lisa Murkowski, Alaska (2002–present) (Republican)[11]

Individuals

* Meghan McCain, television personality and daughter of former U.S. Senator John McCain (Republican)[12]

Organizations

* AIPAC[13]

### Fundraising

[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024

Candidate  | Raised  | Spent  | Cash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema  | $17,047,387  | $7,065,565  | $10,153,343
Source: Federal Election Commission[14]

## Democratic primary

[edit]

Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her.[15] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.[16] Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers.[17] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.[18]

Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent.[1]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Nominee

[edit]

* Ruben Gallego, U.S. representative for Arizona's 3rd congressional district (2015–present)[19]

#### Declined

[edit]

* Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix (2019–present)[20] (endorsed Ruben Gallego, her ex-husband)[21]
* Greg Stanton, U.S. representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district (2019–present) and former mayor of Phoenix (2012–2018)[22] (running for re-election)[23]

### Endorsements

[edit]

Ruben Gallego

Federal officials

* Hillary Clinton, former U.S. Secretary of State (2009–2013)[24]

U.S. senators

* Dennis DeConcini, Arizona (1977–1995)[25]
* Mark Kelly, Arizona (2020–present)[26]
* Chuck Schumer, New York (1999–present)[27]

U.S. representatives

* Ron Barber, AZ-02 (2012–2015)[28]
* Gabby Giffords, AZ-08 (2007–2012)[29]
* Dan Goldman, NY-10 (2023–present)[30]
* Raúl Grijalva, AZ-07 (2003–present)[31]
* Ann Kirkpatrick, AZ-02 (2009–2011, 2013–2017, 2019–2023)[32]
* Seth Moulton, MA-06 (2015–present)[33]
* Nancy Pelosi, CA-11 (1987–present) and former Speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023)[34]
* Linda Sánchez, CA-38 (2013–present)[35]

Statewide officials

* Katie Hobbs, Governor of Arizona (2023–present)[36]
* Anna Tovar, Arizona Corporation Commissioner (2021–present)[28]

State legislators

* Flavio Bravo, state senator from the 26th district (2015–2019, 2023–present)[28]
* Eva Diaz, state senator from the 22nd district (2023–present)[28]
* Mitzi Epstein, Arizona Senate Minority Leader (2023–present) from the 12th district (2023–present)[37]
* Theresa Hatathlie, state senator from the 6th district (2023–present)[28]
* Catherine Miranda, state senator from the 11th district (2015–2019, 2023–present)[28]
* 7 state representatives[28]

Local officials

* Yassamin Ansari, Phoenix city councilor (2021–present)[28]
* Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix (2019–present) (candidate's ex-wife)[21]
* Regina Romero, mayor of Tucson (2019–present)[28]
* Corey Woods, mayor of Tempe (2020–present)[38]

Individuals

* Harry Dunn, former U.S. Capitol Police officer[39]
* Mark Hamill, actor[40]
* Dolores Huerta, labor leader[41]

Political parties

* Arizona Democratic Party[42]

Labor unions

* Alliance for Retired Americans[43]
* Arizona AFL-CIO[44]
* Association of Flight Attendants[45]
* Communications Workers of America Arizona State Council[46]
* International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 104[47]
* National Education Association[48]
* United Farm Workers[41]
* United Mine Workers of America[49]

Organizations

* Brady PAC[50]
* CHC BOLD PAC[35]
* Climate Hawks Vote[51]
* Council for a Livable World[52]
* Democratic Senate Campaign Committee[27]
* End Citizens United[53]
* Feminist Majority PAC[54]
* Giffords[29]
* Human Rights Campaign[55]
* Indivisible[56]
* Jewish Democratic Council of America[57]
* Latino Victory Fund[58]
* League of Conservation Voters[59]

* People for the American Way[60]
* Planned Parenthood Action Fund[61]
* Population Connection Action Fund[62]
* Progressive Change Campaign Committee[63]
* Reproductive Freedom for All[64]
* Sierra Club[65]
* Stonewall Democrats of Arizona[66]
* Swing Left[67]
* UnidosUS[68]
* VoteVets[69]

Tribes

* Salt River Pima–Maricopa Indian Community[70]
* San Carlos Apache Tribe[70]

### Fundraising

[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024

Candidate  | Raised  | Spent  | Cash on hand
Ruben Gallego  | $32,349,689  | $25,433,423  | $8,192,840
Source: Federal Election Commission[14]

### Polling

[edit]

Hypothetical polling

Ruben Gallego vs. Alexander Keller
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego  | Alexander
Keller  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023  | 571 (LV)  | –  | 48% | 6%  | 6%[b] | 40%

Ruben Gallego vs. Kate Gallego vs. Kathy Hoffman vs. Regina Romero vs. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Greg Stanton
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Kate
Gallego  | Ruben
Gallego  | Kathy
Hoffman  | Regina
Romero  | Kyrsten
Sinema  | Greg
Stanton  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Data for Progress (D) | January 21–24, 2022  | 673 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | –  | 74% | –  | –  | 16%  | –  | 10%
–  | 66% | –  | –  | 17%  | –  | 17%
OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021  | 229 (RV)  | ± 6.5%  | –  | 47% | –  | –  | 24%  | –  | 29%
–  | –  | 44% | –  | 24%  | –  | 32%
–  | –  | –  | –  | 25%  | 47% | 28%
Data for Progress (D)[A] | October 8–10, 2021  | 467 (LV)  | ± 5.0%  | 9%  | 23% | –  | 9%  | 19%  | 13%  | 26%
60% | –  | –  | –  | 25%  | –  | 15%
–  | 62% | –  | –  | 23%  | –  | 15%
–  | –  | –  | 55% | 26%  | –  | 19%
–  | –  | –  | –  | 24%  | 59% | 17%

### Results

[edit]

Democratic primary results  Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Democratic | Ruben Gallego | 494,422  | 100.0%
Total votes  | 494,422  | 100.0%

## Republican primary

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Nominee

[edit]

* Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor and nominee for governor of Arizona in 2022[71]

#### Eliminated in primary

[edit]

* Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sheriff (2017–present)[72]
* Elizabeth Jean Reye, neuroscientist[73]

#### Declined

[edit]

* Juan Ciscomani, U.S. representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district (2023–present)[74]
* Doug Ducey, governor of Arizona (2015–2023)[75]
* Abe Hamadeh, former prosecutor in the Maricopa County Attorney's office and nominee for Arizona Attorney General in 2022[76] (running for U.S. House, endorsed Lake)[77]
* Blake Masters, venture capitalist and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022[78] (ran for U.S. House, endorsed Lake)[79]
* Karrin Taylor Robson, former member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017–2021) and candidate for governor of Arizona in 2022[80] (endorsed Lake)[81]
* Kelli Ward, former state senator from the 5th district (2013–2015), former chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2019–2023), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018[82]

### Endorsements

[edit]

Kari Lake

U.S. presidents

* Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[83]

U.S. senators

* John Barrasso, Wyoming (2007–present)[84]
* Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee (2019–present)[85]
* Ted Budd, North Carolina (2023–present)[86]
* John Cornyn, Texas (2002–present)[85]
* Tom Cotton, Arkansas (2015–present)[87]
* Kevin Cramer, North Dakota (2019-present)[88]
* Ted Cruz, Texas (2013-present)[88]
* Steve Daines, Montana (2015–present)[89]
* Joni Ernst, Iowa (2015–present)[85]
* Chuck Grassley, Iowa (1981-present)[88]
* Bill Hagerty, Tennessee (2021–present)[85]
* Mike Lee, Utah (2011–present)[90]
* Cynthia Lummis, Wyoming (2021-present)[88]
* Roger Marshall, Kansas (2021–present)[85]
* Markwayne Mullin, Oklahoma (2023-present) [88]
* Rand Paul, Kentucky (2011–present)[91]
* Jim Risch, Idaho (2009–present)[92]
* Eric Schmitt, Missouri (2023–present)[93]
* Tim Scott, South Carolina (2013–present)[94]
* John Thune, South Dakota, (2005–present)[27]
* Tommy Tuberville, Alabama (2021–present)[95]
* J.D. Vance, Ohio (2023–present)[96]
* Roger Wicker, Mississippi (2007-present)[88]

U.S. representatives

* Jim Banks, IN-03 (2017–present)[97]
* Byron Donalds, FL-19 (2021–present)[88]
* Matt Gaetz, FL-01 (2017–present)[91]
* Louie Gohmert, TX-01 (2005-2023)[88]
* Ronny Jackson, TX-13 (2021–present)[88]
* Brian Mast, FL-21 (2017–present)[98]
* Cory Mills, FL-07 (2023–present)[88]
* Burgess Owens, UT-04 (2021–present)[99]
* Elise Stefanik, NY-21 (2015–present)[100]
* Wesley Hunt, TX-38 (2023–present)[101]

Statewide officials

* Doug Burgum, Governor of North Dakota (2016–present)[102]
* Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General (2015–present)[103]

State officials

* Karrin Taylor Robson, former member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017–2021)[81]

State senators

* Dave Farnsworth, state senator from SD-10 (2023–present)[88]
* Jake Hoffman, SD-15 (2023–present)[88]
* Wendy Rogers, state senator from SD-7 (2021–present)[104]
* Warren Petersen, president of the Arizona Senate (2023–present) from SD-14 (2021–present)[104]

State representatives

* Alexander Kolodin, SD-03 (2023–present)[88]

Organizations

* Citizens United PVF[105]
* Republicans for National Renewal[106]
* Republican National Hispanic Assembly[107]
* National Republican Senatorial Committee[108]
* Senate Conservatives Fund[109]
* Turning Point Action[110]

Individuals

* Blake Masters, venture capitalist[111]
* David Bossie, president of Citizens United[105]
* Chad Prather, comedian[88]
* Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive and candidate for president in 2024[88]

Mark Lamb

Organizations

* Latinos for America First[112]

### Fundraising

[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024

Candidate  | Raised  | Spent  | Cash on hand
Kari Lake  | $10,352,741  | $8,290,053  | $2,062,687
Mark Lamb  | $2,059,130  | $1,795,730  | $263,400
Source: Federal Election Commission[14]

### Polling

[edit]

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Kari
Lake  | Mark
Lamb  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Noble Predictive Insights | July 22–23, 2024  | 438 (LV)  | ± 4.65%  | 49% | 38%  | 7%[c] | 2%
Noble Predictive Insights | May 7–14, 2024  | 364 (RV)  | ± 5.14%  | 46% | 21%  | 9%  | 25%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[B] | February 21–26, 2024  | 469 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 55% | 26%  | 7%  | 12%
Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024  | 384 (RV)  | ± 5.0%  | 54% | 21%  | 9%[d] | 17%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Abe
Hamadeh  | Kari
Lake  | Mark
Lamb  | Jim
Lamon  | Blake
Masters  | Karrin Taylor
Robson  | Brian
Wright  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023  | 1,010 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | –  | 40% | 14%  | –  | 10%  | –  | 4%  | –  | 33%
Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023  | 667 (LV)  | ± 3.7%  | –  | 42% | 11%  | 2%  | 7%  | –  | 2%  | –  | 28%
J.L. Partners | April 10–12, 2023  | 550 (LV)  | ± 4.2%  | 4%  | 38% | 8%  | 3%  | 7%  | 10%  | –  | 2%  | 29%

### Results

[edit]

Results by county:

Lake

* 50–60%

* 60–70%

Lamb

* 50–60%

* 60–70%

Republican primary results  Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Republican | Kari Lake | 405,837  | 55.4%
| Republican | Mark Lamb | 289,407  | 39.5%
| Republican | Elizabeth Jean Reye  | 37,972  | 5.2%
Total votes  | 733,216  | 100.0%

## Green primary

[edit]

The Arizona Green Party has endorsed the write-in campaign of Heredia-Quintana and is "actively opposed" to Hernandez and Norton's campaigns.[113] A press release on the national Green Party's website states that party leaders allege that Norton is a plant for the Democratic Party and that Hernandez is a plant for the Republican Party.[114]

### Candidates

[edit]

* Mike Norton, nonprofit executive[115]
* Eduardo Heredia-Quintana (write-in), chair of the Pima County Green Party[114]
* Arturo Hernandez[73]

### Endorsements

[edit]

Eduardo Heredia-Quintana

Political parties

* Arizona Green Party[114]

### Fundraising

[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024

Candidate  | Raised  | Spent  | Cash on hand
Mike Norton  | $84,401  | $76,692  | $7,708
Source: Federal Election Commission[14]

### Results

[edit]

Green primary results  Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Green | Eduardo Heredia-Quintana (write-in) | 282  | 49.4%
| Green | Mike Norton  | 180  | 31.6%
| Green | Arturo Hernandez  | 108  | 19.0%
Total votes  | 570  | 100.0%

## Libertarian primary

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Filed paperwork

[edit]

* Sarah Williams, business owner (write-in)[116]

## General election

[edit]

### Predictions

[edit]

Source  | Ranking  | As of

|
|

The Cook Political Report[6] | Lean D (flip) | July 5, 2024
Inside Elections[5] | Tilt D (flip) | May 9, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[117] | Lean D (flip) | April 17, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[118] | Tossup  | June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[119] | Lean D (flip) | August 9, 2024
CNalysis[120] | Tilt D (flip) | August 6, 2024
RealClearPolitics[121] | Tossup  | August 5, 2024

### Post-primary endorsements

[edit]

Kari Lake (R)

Organizations

* Club for Growth PAC[122]

### Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation  | Dates
administered  | Dates
updated  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Kari
Lake (R)  | Undecided
[e] | Margin

|
|
|
|
|
|

RCP | June 29 – August 2, 2024  | August 15, 2024  | 47.7% | 43.3%  | 9.0%  | Gallego +4.4
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Kari
Lake (R)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

Peak Insights (R)[C] | July 31– August 5, 2024  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 46% | 46% | 8%
HighGround | July 30 – August 5, 2024  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.38%  | 50% | 39%  | 12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[D] | July 31 – August 3, 2024  | 567 (LV)  | ± 3.79%  | 42% | 36%  | 22%
BSG/GS Strategy Group[E] | July 26– August 2, 2024  | 435 (LV)  | –  | 51% | 42%  | 7%
| July 30, 2024  | Primary elections held
Emerson College[F] | July 22–23, 2024  | 800 (RV)  | ± 3.4%  | 46% | 42%  | 12%
| July 21, 2024  | Joe Biden withdraws from the Presidential Race
Public Policy Polling (D)[G] | July 19–20, 2014  | 736 (RV)  | –  | 49% | 42%  | 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[H] | July 10–11, 2024  | 596 (RV)  | –  | 50% | 47%  | 4%
J.L. Partners (R)[I] | July 10–11, 2024  | 513 (LV)  | ± 4.3%  | 43%  | 44% | 3%
YouGov[J] | July 4–12, 2024  | 900 (RV)  | ± 3.9%  | 48% | 41%  | 11%[f]
793 (LV)  | –  | 49% | 42%  | 10%[f]
Remington Research Group (R)[K] | June 29 – July 1, 2024  | 601 (LV)  | –  | 47% | 47% | 6%
Emerson College[L] | June 13–18, 2024  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 45% | 41%  | 14%
Rasmussen Reports (R) | June 11–13, 2024  | 750 (RV)  | ± 4.0%  | 44% | 41%  | 15%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[M] | May 28 – June 4, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 48% | 45%  | 7%
Mainstreet Research/FAU | May 19–21, 2024  | 609 (RV)  | ± 4.0%  | 44% | 38%  | 18%
501 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 48% | 39%  | 13%
CBS News/YouGov | May 10–16, 2024  | 1,214 (RV)  | ± 3.5%  | 49% | 36%  | 15%
Noble Predictive Insights | May 7–14, 2024  | 1,003 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 46% | 36%  | 18%
BSG (R)/
GS Strategy Group (D)[N] | May 6–13, 2024  | 527 (LV)  | ± 4.3%  | 46% | 41%  | 13%
NYT/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024  | 626 (RV)  | ± 4.0%  | 45% | 41%  | 14%
626 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 46% | 43%  | 11%
Data Orbital | April 27–29, 2024  | 550 (LV)  | ± 4.3%  | 48% | 44%  | 8%
Emerson College[L] | April 25–29, 2024  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 45% | 43%  | 12%
RABA Research | April 9, 2024  | 503 (RV)  | ± 4.4%  | 36% | 28%  | 36%[g]
Emerson College | March 12–15, 2024  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 44% | 40%  | 16%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[B] | February 21–26, 2024  | 1,000 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 42%  | 45% | 13%
Emerson College[L] | February 16–19, 2024  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 46% | 39%  | 15%
Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024  | 1,002 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 47% | 37%  | 16%
J.L. Partners (R)[I] | January 29 – February 1, 2024  | 500 (RV)  | –  | 44%  | 46% | 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[O] | January 5–6, 2024  | 590 (V)  | ± 4.0%  | 45%  | 46% | 9%
Cygnal (R) | October 24–25, 2023  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 46% | 43%  | 11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[P] | October 24, 2023  | –  | ± 4.4%  | 49% | 44%  | 7%
National Research Inc. (R) | October 8–9, 2023  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 44% | 44% | 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[Q] | October 6–7, 2023  | 522 (V)  | ± 4.3%  | 48% | 43%  | 9%
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023  | 1000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 45% | 35%  | 20%
OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 43% | 33%  | 24%
Normington Petts (D)[R] | January 18–23, 2023  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 50% | 45%  | 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[Q] | December 21, 2022  | 650 (V)  | ± 3.8%  | 48% | 47%  | 5%

Hypothetical polling

Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. Eduardo Heredia–Quintana
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Kari
Lake (R)  | Eduardo Heredia-
Quintana (G) | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

North Star Opinion Research (R)[S] | June 17–20, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 39% | 38%  | 9%  | 13%

Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Kari
Lake (R)  | Kyrsten
Sinema (I)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Rasmussen Reports (R)[B] | February 21–26, 2024  | 1,000 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 33%  | 37% | 21%  | 2%[h] | 7%
Emerson College[L] | February 16–19, 2024  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 36% | 30%  | 21%  | –  | 13%
Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024  | 1,002 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 34% | 31%  | 23%  | –  | 12%
J.L. Partners (R)[I] | January 29 – February 1, 2024  | 500 (RV)  | –  | 39%  | 40% | 13%  | –  | 8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[O] | January 5–6, 2024  | 590 (V)  | ± 4.0%  | 36% | 35%  | 17%  | –  | 12%
VCreek/AMG (R)[T] | December 1–8, 2023  | 694 (LV)  | ± 3.7%  | 35%  | 41% | 16%  | 1%[i] | 7%
Tulchin Research (D)[U] | November 13–20, 2023  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 39% | 34%  | 17%  | 6%[j] | 4%
Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023  | 1,010 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 39% | 33%  | 29%  | –  | –
Cygnal (R) | October 24–25, 2023  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 36%  | 37% | 15%  | –  | 11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[P] | October 24, 2023  | –  | ± 4.4%  | 41% | 37%  | 17%  | –  | 5%
National Research Inc. (R) | October 8–9, 2023  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 33%  | 37% | 19%  | –  | 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[Q] | October 6–7, 2023  | 522 (V)  | ± 4.3%  | 41% | 36%  | 15%  | –  | 8%
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023  | 1000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 34% | 25%  | 26%  | –  | 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[Q] | April 18–19, 2023  | 559 (V)  | –  | 42% | 35%  | 14%  | –  | 9%
OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 34% | 26%  | 19%  | –  | 21%
Normington Petts (D)[R] | January 18–23, 2023  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 36% | 36% | 24%  | –  | –
Blueprint Polling (D) | January 5–8, 2023  | 618 (V)  | ± 3.9%  | 32%  | 36% | 14%  | –  | 19%
Public Policy Polling (D)[Q] | December 21, 2022  | 678 (V)  | ± 3.8%  | 40%  | 41% | 13%  | –  | 6%

Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. "An Independent / third-party candidate"
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Kari
Lake (R)  | Generic
independent  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Bullfinch Group | March 29 – April 3, 2024  | 600 (RV)  | ± 4.0%  | 41% | 41% | 10%  | 8%

Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Doug
Ducey (R)  | Kyrsten
Sinema (I)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/
OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 38% | 34%  | –  | 28%
32% | 27%  | 17%  | 23%
Normington Petts (D)[R] | January 18–23, 2023  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 37% | 31%  | 27%  | 5%

Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Blake
Masters (R)  | Kyrsten
Sinema (I)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling (D)[Q] | October 6–7, 2023  | 522 (V)  | ± 4.3%  | 41% | 31%  | 17%  | 11%
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023  | 1000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 44% | 36%  | –  | 20%
32% | 24%  | 28%  | 16%
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/
OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 43% | 32%  | –  | 26%
33% | 24%  | 22%  | 21%

Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Karrin Taylor
Robson (R)  | Kyrsten
Sinema (I)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/
OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 36% | 32%  | –  | 32%
31% | 24%  | 21%  | 25%

Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Mark
Lamb (R)  | Kyrsten
Sinema (I)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023  | 1,010 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 36% | 32%  | 32%  | 0%
Public Policy Polling (D)[Q] | October 6–7, 2023  | 522 (V)  | ± 4.3%  | 40% | 31%  | 16%  | 13%
Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023  | 1,337 (RV)  | ± 2.6%  | 42% | 42% | –  | 16%
36% | 29%  | 21%  | 15%
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023  | 1000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 40% | 36%  | –  | 24%
33% | 25%  | 24%  | 18%
Public Policy Polling (D)[Q] | April 18–19, 2023  | 559 (V)  | –  | 43% | 33%  | 15%  | 9%

Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Jim
Lamon (R)  | Kyrsten
Sinema (I)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling (D)[Q] | April 18–19, 2023  | 559 (V)  | –  | 43% | 27%  | 16%  | 14%

Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Brian
Wright (R)  | Kyrsten
Sinema (I)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023  | 1,337 (RV)  | ± 2.6%  | 41% | 38%  | –  | 21%
37% | 25%  | 26%  | 12%

### Results

[edit]

2024 United States Senate election in Arizona  Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %  | ±%

|
|
|
|

| Democratic | Ruben Gallego |  |  |
| Republican | Kari Lake |  |  |
| Green | Eduardo Heredia-Quintana  |  |  |
Total votes  |  |  |

## Notes

[edit]

1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
2. ^ "Someone else" with 6%"
3. ^ Elizabeth Jean Reye with 3%
4. ^ Brian Wright with 6%; George Nicholson with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
5. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
6. ^ a b Other with 2%
7. ^ "Someone else" with 13%
8. ^ Wouldn't vote with 2%
9. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
10. ^ "Someone else" with 6%

Partisan clients

1. ^ This poll was sponsored by Primary Sinema
2. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Bull Moose Project.
3. ^ Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Lake's campaign.
4. ^ Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
5. ^ Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
6. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
7. ^ Poll sponsored by the Clean & Prosperous America PAC.
8. ^ Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
9. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Lake's campaign.
10. ^ Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
11. ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
12. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by The Hill
13. ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
14. ^ Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report.
15. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Replace Sinema PAC.
16. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NRSC.
17. ^ a b c d e f g h i This poll was sponsored by Gallego's campaign
18. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC
19. ^ Poll sponsored by American Greatness
20. ^ Poll sponsored by Americas PAC, which supports Republican candidates.
21. ^ Poll conducted for Stand for Children, a non-profit education advocacy group.

## References

[edit]

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91. ^ a b Vakil, Caroline (February 12, 2024). "Rand Paul, Gaetz endorse Kari Lake in Arizona Senate race". Retrieved February 16, 2024.
92. ^ Downs, Rebecca (March 1, 2024). "Townhall Has Learned That Senator Risch Has Endorsed Kari Lake for Senate in Arizona". townhall.com. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
93. ^ Mondeaux, Cami (March 12, 2024). "Kari Lake pulls in more support with Eric Schmitt as latest endorsement - Washington Examiner". Retrieved March 12, 2024.
94. ^ https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/3068851/tim-scott-endorses-kari-lake-arizona-senate-race/
95. ^ Joseph, Jamie (January 22, 2024). "Sens. Tuberville and Marshall endorse Trump-backed Arizona Republican Kari Lake for Senate". Fox News.
96. ^ Vakil, Caroline (February 27, 2024). "Vance endorses Lake in Arizona Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
97. ^ Gillespie, Brandon (November 2, 2023). "Kari Lake builds momentum with more big-name backing in race to flip Arizona Senate seat". Fox News. Archived from the original on November 2, 2023. Retrieved November 2, 2023.
98. ^ Mondeaux, Cami (January 19, 2024). "Kari Lake nabs another endorsement from House conservative in pivotal Senate race". Washington Examiner. Retrieved January 24, 2024.
99. ^ Bates, Suzanne (October 24, 2023). "Rep. Burgess Owens endorses Arizona's Kari Lake for Senate". Deseret News. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
100. ^ Hansen, Ronald (November 15, 2023). "Kari Lake picks up support of No. 3 House Republican in sign the GOP is getting behind her". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved November 16, 2023. "Stefanik, R-N.Y., who is the House Republican conference chair, said the Lake endorsement by her political action committee is the first for the Senate this election cycle."
101. ^ Husebø, Wendell (February 29, 2024). "Wesley Hunt Endorses Kari Lake for U.S. Senate". Breitbart. Retrieved March 7, 2024. ""Kari Lake is an outsider and fighter who will work to secure the border and put Arizonans First," he added. "I am excited to endorse Kari for the Senate in Arizona to bring much needed change to Washington.""
102. ^ Crisp, Elizabeth (May 24, 2024). "Trump VP prospect Doug Burgum endorses Kari Lake in Arizona Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved May 24, 2024.
103. ^ Gersony, Laura (November 1, 2023). "Kari Lake touts endorsement from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who faces fraud trial". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved November 1, 2023.
104. ^ a b Hansen, Ronald (October 10, 2023). "'This mama bear has a whole lot of fight in her': Kari Lake enters Arizona's Senate race". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 11, 2023.
105. ^ a b CUPVF (January 23, 2024). "David N. Bossie and Citizens United Political Victory Fund Endorse Kari Lake for U.S. Senate from Arizona". Citizens United Political Victory Fund. Retrieved January 24, 2024.
106. ^ "Republicans for National Renewal Endorses Kari Lake for U.S. Senate". Republicans for National Renewal. October 26, 2023. Archived from the original on October 26, 2023. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
107. ^ "It is an honor to officially endorse @KariLake for US Senate for Arizona. She is a proven fighter and champion of the American Way. The RNHA is dedicated to supporting candidates that will solve the border crisis, secure our elections, and TAKE BACK AMERICA!". X.com. Republican National Hispanic Assembly. Retrieved August 1, 2024.
108. ^ Mutnick, Ally (February 13, 2024). "Senate GOP campaign arm endorses Kari Lake". POLITICO.
109. ^ "Senate Conservatives Fund". www.senateconservatives.com. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
110. ^ "Endorsements". Turning Point Action. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
111. ^ Stone, Kevin. "Blake Masters says he shifted 2024 focus from Senate to House after talking to Trump, Lake". KTAR. "President Trump wanted Kari to run, and I think she's running a hell of a campaign so far, so I look forward to supporting her."
112. ^ Gutierrez, Marco. "Primary Campaign Corner 2024: Candidates". Latinos for America First. Archived from the original on September 15, 2023. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
113. ^ "Candidates". Arizona Green Party. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
114. ^ a b c "Green Party candidates for Senate in Arizona draw suspicion of being plants". gp.org.
115. ^ "Arizona race for US Senate seat features highly watched battles". Daily Independent. April 17, 2024.
116. ^ "WILLIAMS, SARAH - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
117. ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. April 17, 2023. Retrieved April 17, 2023.
118. ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
119. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
120. ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved August 6, 2024.
121. ^ "2024 Arizona Senate - Lake vs. Gallego". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
122. ^ "PAC Endorsed Candidates". Club for Growth. Retrieved August 12, 2024.

## External links

[edit]

Official campaign websites

* Ruben Gallego (D) for Senate
* Kari Lake (R) for Senate
* Michael Norton (G) for Senate
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