2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

Main article: 2024 United States Senate elections

Not to be confused with 2024 Arizona Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

* * *

| <- 2018 | November 5, 2024 | 2030 ->

|
|

|  |  |

|
|

Nominee  | Ruben Gallego | Kari Lake |
Party  | Democratic | Republican
Popular vote  | 1,676,335 | 1,595,761
Percentage  | 50.06% | 47.65%

* * *

County results

Congressional district results

Precinct results

Gallego: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
Lake: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes

* * *

| U.S. senator before election

Kyrsten Sinema
Independent

| Elected U.S. senator

Ruben Gallego
Democratic

|

Elections in Arizona

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|  List of Arizona ballot propositions

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Mesa

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* v
* t
* e

The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. This election was the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a Senate election was held in Arizona after 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022. Democratic U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego defeated Republican former news journalist Kari Lake to succeed Democrat-turned-independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who did not seek a second term.[1]

Sinema, who was elected as a Democrat, was considered vulnerable to a primary challenge due to frequently opposing her party's legislative agenda. After preparing a re-election bid as an independent, Sinema announced she would retire from the senate.[2][1] Lake, the Republican nominee in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, won her party's nomination with 55% of the vote against Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb. The election was considered among the most competitive Senate races in 2024.[3]

Most polls and ratings had Gallego as the slight favorite to win.[4][5] Gallego defeated Lake by 2.4 percentage points, a closer race than polls had projected for most of the campaign. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's wider-than-expected victory in the state likely contributed to this, but there was also a significant amount of ticket splitting for Gallego and Trump. In fact, out of most Senate elections that took place, Gallego outperformed most of them. This election marked the fourth consecutive election cycle in which Democrats won a Senate election in Arizona. This was the first time that Arizona voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Dennis DeConcini was reelected as Republican George H. W. Bush carried the state in 1988. Gallego also became the first Latino elected to the U.S Senate from Arizona, a state with a large Latino population [6]

## Background

[edit]

Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. As of May 2024, Democrats control the governorship, most other statewide offices, and both U.S. Senate seats, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and a 6–3 majority of Arizona's U.S. House delegation.[7][8] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016,[9] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.[10]

## Democratic primary

[edit]

Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her.[11] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.[12] Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers.[13] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.[14]

Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent, while continuing to be counted as part of the Senate Democratic Caucus.[2]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Nominee

[edit]

* Ruben Gallego, U.S. representative for Arizona's 3rd congressional district (2015–2025)[15]

#### Declined

[edit]

* Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix (2019–present)[16] (endorsed Ruben Gallego, her ex-husband)[17]
* Greg Stanton, U.S. representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district (2019–present) and former mayor of Phoenix (2012–2018)[18] (ran for re-election)[19]

### Endorsements

[edit]

Ruben Gallego

Federal officials

* Hillary Clinton, former U.S. Secretary of State (2009–2013)[20]

U.S. senators

* Dennis DeConcini, Arizona (1977–1995)[21]
* Mark Kelly, Arizona (2020–present)[22]
* Chuck Schumer, New York (1999–present)[23]

U.S. representatives

* Ron Barber, AZ-02 (2012–2015)[24]
* Gabby Giffords, AZ-08 (2007–2012)[25]
* Dan Goldman, NY-10 (2023–present)[26]
* Raúl Grijalva, AZ-07 (2003–present)[27]
* Ann Kirkpatrick, AZ-02 (2009–2011, 2013–2017, 2019–2023)[28]
* Seth Moulton, MA-06 (2015–present)[29]
* Nancy Pelosi, CA-11 (1987–present) and former Speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023)[30]
* Linda Sánchez, CA-38 (2013–present)[31]

Statewide officials

* Katie Hobbs, Governor of Arizona (2023–present)[32]
* Anna Tovar, Arizona Corporation Commissioner (2021–present)[24]

State legislators

* Flavio Bravo, state senator from the 26th district (2015–2019, 2023–present)[24]
* Eva Diaz, state senator from the 22nd district (2023–present)[24]
* Mitzi Epstein, Arizona Senate Minority Leader (2023–present) from the 12th district (2023–present)[33]
* Theresa Hatathlie, state senator from the 6th district (2023–present)[24]
* Catherine Miranda, state senator from the 11th district (2015–2019, 2023–present)[24]
* 7 state representatives[24]

Local officials

* Yassamin Ansari, Phoenix city councilor (2021–present)[24]
* Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix (2019–present) (candidate's ex-wife)[17]
* Regina Romero, mayor of Tucson (2019–present)[24]
* Corey Woods, mayor of Tempe (2020–present)[34]

Individuals

* Harry Dunn, former U.S. Capitol Police officer[35]
* Mark Hamill, actor[36]
* Dolores Huerta, labor leader[37]

Political parties

* Arizona Democratic Party[38]

Labor unions

* Alliance for Retired Americans[39]
* Arizona AFL-CIO[40]
* Association of Flight Attendants[41]
* Communications Workers of America Arizona State Council[42]
* International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 104[43]
* National Education Association[44]
* United Farm Workers[37]
* United Mine Workers of America[45]

Organizations

* Brady PAC[46]
* CHC BOLD PAC[31]
* Climate Hawks Vote[47]
* Council for a Livable World[48]
* Democratic Senate Campaign Committee[23]
* End Citizens United[49]
* Feminist Majority PAC[50]
* Giffords[25]
* Human Rights Campaign[51]
* Indivisible[52]
* Jewish Democratic Council of America[53]
* Latino Victory Fund[54]
* League of Conservation Voters[55]
* People for the American Way[56]
* Planned Parenthood Action Fund[57]
* Population Connection Action Fund[58]
* Progressive Change Campaign Committee[59]
* Reproductive Freedom for All[60]
* Sierra Club[61]
* Stonewall Democrats of Arizona[62]
* Swing Left[63]
* UnidosUS[64]
* VoteVets[65]

Tribes

* Salt River Pima–Maricopa Indian Community[66]
* San Carlos Apache Tribe[66]

### Polling

[edit]

Hypothetical polling

Ruben Gallego vs. Alexander Keller

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego  | Alexander
Keller  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Emerson College[67] | August 2–4, 2023  | 571 (LV)  | –  | 48% | 6%  | 6%[b] | 40%

Ruben Gallego vs. Kate Gallego vs. Kathy Hoffman vs. Regina Romero vs. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Greg Stanton

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Kate
Gallego  | Ruben
Gallego  | Kathy
Hoffman  | Regina
Romero  | Kyrsten
Sinema  | Greg
Stanton  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Data for Progress (D)[68] | January 21–24, 2022  | 673 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | –  | 74% | –  | –  | 16%  | –  | 10%
–  | 66% | –  | –  | 17%  | –  | 17%
OH Predictive Insights[69] | November 1–8, 2021  | 229 (RV)  | ± 6.5%  | –  | 47% | –  | –  | 24%  | –  | 29%
–  | –  | 44% | –  | 24%  | –  | 32%
–  | –  | –  | –  | 25%  | 47% | 28%
Data for Progress (D)[70][A] | October 8–10, 2021  | 467 (LV)  | ± 5.0%  | 9%  | 23% | –  | 9%  | 19%  | 13%  | 26%
60% | –  | –  | –  | 25%  | –  | 15%
–  | 62% | –  | –  | 23%  | –  | 15%
–  | –  | –  | 55% | 26%  | –  | 19%
–  | –  | –  | –  | 24%  | 59% | 17%

### Results

[edit]

Democratic primary results[71] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Democratic | Ruben Gallego | 498,927  | 100.0%
Total votes  | 498,927  | 100.0%

## Republican primary

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Nominee

[edit]

* Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor and nominee for governor of Arizona in 2022[72]

#### Eliminated in primary

[edit]

* Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sheriff (2017–present)[73]
* Elizabeth Jean Reye, neuroscientist[74]

#### Declined

[edit]

* Juan Ciscomani, U.S. representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district (2023–present)[75]
* Doug Ducey, governor of Arizona (2015–2023)[76]
* Abraham Hamadeh, former prosecutor in the Maricopa County Attorney's office and nominee for Arizona Attorney General in 2022[77] (ran for U.S. House, endorsed Lake)[78]
* Blake Masters, venture capitalist and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022[79] (ran for U.S. House, endorsed Lake)[80]
* Karrin Taylor Robson, former member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017–2021) and candidate for governor of Arizona in 2022[81] (endorsed Lake)[82]
* Kelli Ward, former state senator from the 5th district (2013–2015), former chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2019–2023), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018[83]

### Endorsements

[edit]

Kari Lake

U.S. presidents

* Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[84]

U.S. senators

* John Barrasso, Wyoming (2007–present)[85]
* Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee (2019–present)[86]
* Ted Budd, North Carolina (2023–present)[87]
* John Cornyn, Texas (2002–present)[86]
* Tom Cotton, Arkansas (2015–present)[88]
* Kevin Cramer, North Dakota (2019–present)[89]
* Ted Cruz, Texas (2013–present)[89]
* Steve Daines, Montana (2015–present)[90]
* Joni Ernst, Iowa (2015–present)[86]
* Chuck Grassley, Iowa (1981–present)[89]
* Bill Hagerty, Tennessee (2021–present)[86]
* Mike Lee, Utah (2011–present)[91]
* Cynthia Lummis, Wyoming (2021–present)[89]
* Roger Marshall, Kansas (2021–present)[86]
* Markwayne Mullin, Oklahoma (2023–present) [89]
* Rand Paul, Kentucky (2011–present)[92]
* Jim Risch, Idaho (2009–present)[93]
* Eric Schmitt, Missouri (2023–present)[94]
* Tim Scott, South Carolina (2013–present)[95]
* John Thune, South Dakota, (2005–present)[23]
* Tommy Tuberville, Alabama (2021–present)[96]
* J.D. Vance, Ohio (2023–present)[97]
* Roger Wicker, Mississippi (2007–present)[89]

U.S. representatives

* Jim Banks, IN-03 (2017–present)[98]
* Byron Donalds, FL-19 (2021–present)[89]
* Matt Gaetz, FL-01 (2017–present)[92]
* Louie Gohmert, TX-01 (2005–2023)[89]
* Ronny Jackson, TX-13 (2021–present)[89]
* Brian Mast, FL-21 (2017–present)[99]
* Cory Mills, FL-07 (2023–present)[89]
* Burgess Owens, UT-04 (2021–present)[100]
* Elise Stefanik, NY-21 (2015–present)[101]
* Wesley Hunt, TX-38 (2023–present)[102]

Statewide officials

* Doug Burgum, Governor of North Dakota (2016–present)[103]
* Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General (2015–present)[104]

State officials

* Karrin Taylor Robson, former member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017–2021)[82]

State senators

* Dave Farnsworth, state senator from SD-10 (2023–present)[89]
* Jake Hoffman, SD-15 (2023–present)[89]
* Wendy Rogers, state senator from SD-7 (2021–present)[105]
* Warren Petersen, president of the Arizona Senate (2023–present) from SD-14 (2021–present)[105]

State representatives

* Alexander Kolodin, SD-03 (2023–present)[89]

Organizations

* Citizens United PVF[106]
* College Republicans of America [107]
* Republicans for National Renewal[108]
* Republican National Hispanic Assembly[109]
* National Republican Senatorial Committee[110]
* Senate Conservatives Fund[111]
* Turning Point Action[112]

Individuals

* Blake Masters, venture capitalist[113]
* David Bossie, president of Citizens United[106]
* Chad Prather, comedian[89]
* Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive and candidate for president in 2024[89]

Mark Lamb

Organizations

* Latinos for America First[114]

### Fundraising

[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024

Candidate  | Raised  | Spent  | Cash on hand
Kari Lake  | $10,352,741  | $8,290,053  | $2,062,687
Mark Lamb  | $2,059,130  | $1,795,730  | $263,400
Source: Federal Election Commission[115]

### Polling

[edit]

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Kari
Lake  | Mark
Lamb  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Noble Predictive Insights[116] | July 22–23, 2024  | 438 (LV)  | ± 4.65%  | 49% | 38%  | 7%[c] | 2%
Noble Predictive Insights[117] | May 7–14, 2024  | 364 (RV)  | ± 5.14%  | 46% | 21%  | 9%  | 25%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[118][B] | February 21–26, 2024  | 469 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 55% | 26%  | 7%  | 12%
Noble Predictive Insights[119] | February 6–13, 2024  | 384 (RV)  | ± 5.0%  | 54% | 21%  | 9%[d] | 17%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Abe
Hamadeh  | Kari
Lake  | Mark
Lamb  | Jim
Lamon  | Blake
Masters  | Karrin Taylor
Robson  | Brian
Wright  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Noble Predictive Insights[120] | October 25–31, 2023  | 1,010 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | –  | 40% | 14%  | –  | 10%  | –  | 4%  | –  | 33%
Emerson College[67] | August 2–4, 2023  | 667 (LV)  | ± 3.7%  | –  | 42% | 11%  | 2%  | 7%  | –  | 2%  | –  | 28%
J.L. Partners[121] | April 10–12, 2023  | 550 (LV)  | ± 4.2%  | 4%  | 38% | 8%  | 3%  | 7%  | 10%  | –  | 2%  | 29%

### Results

[edit]

Results by county:

Lake

* 50–60%

* 60–70%

Lamb

* 50–60%

* 60–70%

Republican primary results[71] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Republican | Kari Lake | 409,339  | 55.28%
| Republican | Mark Lamb | 292,888  | 39.56%
| Republican | Elizabeth Jean Reye  | 38,208  | 5.16%
Total votes  | 740,435  | 100.0%

## Green primary

[edit]

The Arizona Green Party endorsed the write-in campaign of Quintana and was "actively opposed" to Hernandez and Norton's campaigns.[122] A press release on the national Green Party's website states that party leaders allege that Norton is a plant for the Democratic Party and that Hernandez is a plant for the Republican Party.[123]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Nominee

[edit]

* Eduardo Heredia Quintana (write-in), chair of the Pima County Green Party[123]

#### Eliminated in primary

[edit]

* Mike Norton, nonprofit executive[124]
* Arturo Hernandez[74]

### Endorsements

[edit]

Eduardo Heredia Quintana

Political parties

* Arizona Green Party[123]

### Fundraising

[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024

Candidate  | Raised  | Spent  | Cash on hand
Mike Norton  | $84,401  | $76,692  | $7,708
Source: Federal Election Commission[115]

### Results

[edit]

Green primary results[71] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Green | Eduardo Heredia Quintana (write-in) | 282  | 49.47%
| Green | Mike Norton  | 180  | 31.58%
| Green | Arturo Hernandez  | 108  | 18.95%
Total votes  | 570  | 100.0%

## Independents

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Declined

[edit]

* Kyrsten Sinema, incumbent U.S. senator (2019–present)[1]

### Endorsements

[edit]

Kyrsten Sinema (declined to run)

U.S. senators

* Lisa Murkowski, Alaska (2002–present) (Republican)[125]

Individuals

* Meghan McCain, television personality and daughter of former U.S. Senator John McCain (Republican)[126]

Organizations

* AIPAC[127]

### Fundraising

[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024

Candidate  | Raised  | Spent  | Cash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema  | $17,047,387  | $7,065,565  | $10,153,343
Source: Federal Election Commission[115]

## General election

[edit]

### Predictions

[edit]

Source  | Ranking  | As of

|
|

Elections Daily[128] | Likely D (flip) | October 9, 2024
CNalysis[129] | Likely D (flip) | October 15, 2024
RealClearPolitics[130] | Lean D (flip) | October 3, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[131] | Lean D (flip) | September 6, 2024
Inside Elections[4] | Lean D (flip) | October 10, 2024
The Cook Political Report[5] | Lean D (flip) | September 12, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[132] | Likely D (flip) | September 20, 2024
Split Ticket[133] | Lean D (flip) | October 23, 2024
538[134] | Likely D (flip) | October 23, 2024

### Post-primary endorsements

[edit]

Ruben Gallego (D)

Executive branch officials

* Bill Clinton, President of the United States (1993–2001)
* Barack Obama, President of the United States (2009–2017)
* Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States (2021–present)[135]

Statewide officials

* Tim Walz, Governor of Minnesota (2019–present)[135]
* Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan (2019–present)[136]

State legislators

* Adrian Boafo, Maryland state delegate from the 23rd district (2023–present)[137]
* Robin Shaw, former state representative (1994–1998) (Republican)[138]

Mayors

* John Giles, Mesa (2014–present) (Republican)[139]
* Neil Giuliano, Tempe (1994–2004)[139]

Organizations

* Arizona Police Association[140]
* Democratic Majority for Israel[141]
* Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund[142]
* League of United Latin American Citizens Adelante PAC[143]
* March for Our Lives[144]

Kari Lake (R)

U.S. Senators

* Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida (2010–present)[145]

Governors

* Doug Ducey, former Governor of Arizona (2015–2023)[146]

Local officials

* Mark Lamb, Sheriff of Pinal County (2017–present)[147]

Organizations

* Club for Growth PAC[148]

### Debates

[edit]

2024 Arizona U.S. Senate election debate  No. | Date  | Host  | Moderators  | Link  | Democratic | Republican

|
|
|
|
|
|

Key:
P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited  W Withdrawn |  |
Gallego  | Lake
1  | October 10, 2024  | Clean Elections  | Steve Goldstein
Nohelani Graf  | [149] | P | P

### Post-primary fundraising

[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024

Candidate  | Raised  | Spent  | Cash on hand
Ruben Gallego (D)  | $56,843,786  | $55,360,823  | $2,759,538
Kari Lake (R)  | $21,396,539  | $18,239,291  | $3,157,247
Source: Federal Election Commission[115]

### Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation  | Dates
administered  | Dates
updated  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Kari
Lake (R)  | Undecided
[e] | Margin

|
|
|
|
|
|

FiveThirtyEight[150] | through November 4, 2024  | November 4, 2024  | 49.4% | 45.3%  | 5.3%  | Gallego +4.1%
RealClearPolitics[151] | October 20 – November 4, 2024  | November 4, 2024  | 48.8% | 45.6%  | 5.4%  | Gallego +3.2%
270toWin[152] | October 22 – November 4, 2024  | November 4, 2024  | 49.5% | 44.3%  | 6.2%  | Gallego +5.2%
TheHill/DDHQ[153] | through November 4, 2024  | November 4, 2024  | 49.3% | 45.8%  | 4.9%  | Gallego +3.5%
Average | 49.3% | 45.3%  | 5.4%  | Gallego +4.0%
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Kari
Lake (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

AtlasIntel[154] | November 3–4, 2024  | 875 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 48% | 48% | 2%[f] | 2%
Victory Insights (R)[155] | November 2–3, 2024  | 750 (LV)  | –  | 50% | 47%  | –  | 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[156] | November 1–3, 2024  | 1,090 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 49% | 49% | –  | 2%
Patriot Polling (R)[157] | November 1–3, 2024  | 801 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 51% | 48%  | –  | –
InsiderAdvantage (R)[158] | November 1–2, 2024  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 49% | 47%  | 1%  | 3%
AtlasIntel[159] | November 1–2, 2024  | 967 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 47%  | 49% | 2%[f] | 2%
Emerson College[160][C] | October 30 – November 2, 2024  | 900 (LV)  | ± 3.2%  | 50% | 45%  | –  | 5%
NYT/Siena College[161] | October 25 – November 2, 2024  | 1,025 (LV)  | ± 3.4%  | 50% | 45%  | –  | 4%
1,025 (RV)  | ± 3.4%  | 51% | 43%  | –  | 6%
Morning Consult[162] | October 23 – November 1, 2024  | 666 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 50% | 42%  | –  | 8%
AtlasIntel[163] | October 30–31, 2024  | 1,005 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 48%  | 49% | 2%[f] | 1%
OnMessage (R)[164] | October 29–31, 2024  | 800 (LV)  | –  | 48% | 48% | –  | 4%
YouGov[165][D] | October 25–31, 2024  | 856 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 49% | 45%  | –  | 6%
880 (RV)  | 49% | 44%  | –  | 7%
ActiVote[166] | October 5–31, 2024  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 54% | 46%  | –  | –
Noble Predictive Insights[167] | October 28–30, 2024  | 775 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 48% | 44%  | 4%[g] | 3%
Data for Progress (D)[168] | October 25–30, 2024  | 1,079 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 50% | 45%  | 2%[h] | 4%
AtlasIntel[169] | October 25–29, 2024  | 1,458 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 48% | 48% | 2%[f] | 2%
Mitchell Research & Communications[170] | October 28, 2024  | 610 (LV)  | ± 3.968%  | 50% | 46%  | 3%[i] | 5%
50% | 47%  | –  | 3%
Data Orbital (R)[171] | October 26–28, 2024  | 550 (LV)  | ± 4.3%  | 45% | 45% | 5%[j] | 6%
RABA Research[172] | October 25–27, 2024  | 589 (RV)  | ± 4.0%  | 49% | 34%  | 8%[k] | 9%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[173] | October 24–26, 2024  | 1,094 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 50% | 46%  | –  | 4%
CNN/SRSS[174] | October 21–26, 2024  | 781 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 51% | 43%  | 6%[l] | 1%
Marist College[175] | October 17–22, 2024  | 1,193 (LV)  | ± 3.7%  | 53% | 45%  | –  | 2%
1,329 (RV)  | ± 3.5%  | 53% | 45%  | –  | 1%
HighGround Public Affairs[176] | October 19–20, 2024  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 52% | 42%  | 2%[m] | 4%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[177] | October 19–20, 2024  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 50% | 46%  | 1%[n] | 3%
University of Arizona[178] | October 12–20, 2024  | 846(RV)  | ± 3.37%  | 51% | 36%  | 2%[o] | 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[179][E] | October 16–18, 2024  | 691 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 48% | 41%  | 5%[p] | 7%
AtlasIntel[180] | October 12–17, 2024  | 1,440 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 50% | 46%  | 2%[f] | 2%
CBS News/YouGov[181] | October 11–16, 2024  | 1,403 (LV)  | ± 3.3%  | 54% | 45%  | 1%[q] | –
Morning Consult[182] | October 6–15, 2024  | 653 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 52% | 40%  | 3%  | 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[183][E] | October 12–14, 2024  | 1,141 (LV)  | ± 2.7%  | 47% | 42%  | 4%[r] | 7%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[184] | October 10–13, 2024  | 1,090 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 48% | 44%  | 3%[s] | 6%
NYT/Siena College[185] | October 7–10, 2024  | 808 (LV)  | ± 3.8%  | 48% | 41%  | –  | 10%
808 (RV)  | ± 3.8%  | 48% | 39%  | –  | 12%
ActiVote[186] | September 8 – October 10, 2024  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 53% | 47%  | –  | –
Emerson College[187][C] | October 5–8, 2024  | 1,000 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 50% | 43%  | –  | 7%
SoCal Strategies (R)[188][F] | October 5–7, 2024  | 735 (LV)  | –  | 51% | 39%  | –  | 10%
RMG Research[189][G] | September 30 – October 2, 2024  | 783 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 52% | 42%  | 1%[t] | 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[190][E] | September 27 – October 2, 2024  | 555 (LV)  | ± 3.9%  | 48% | 42%  | 3%[u] | 7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[191][H] | September 24 – October 1, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 51% | 44%  | 1%[v] | 4%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[192] | September 29–30, 2024  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 50% | 43%  | 1%[n] | 6%
HighGround Public Affairs[193][I] | September 26–29, 2024  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 51% | 41%  | 2%[m] | 5%
National Research Inc.[194][J] | September 25–29, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 48% | 42%  | 2%[h] | 8%
Emerson College[195] | September 27–28, 2024  | 920 (LV)  | ± 3.2%  | 52% | 41%  | –  | 7%
AtlasIntel[196] | September 20–25, 2024  | 946 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 50% | 46%  | 2%[f] | 2%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[197][K] | September 19–25, 2024  | 409 (LV)  | –  | 51% | 39%  | 4%[w] | 6%
54% | 41%  | –  | 5%
Fox News[198] | September 20–24, 2024  | 764 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 55% | 42%  | 1%[x] | 1%
1,021 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 56% | 42%  | 1%[x] | 1%
Suffolk University[199][L] | September 19–24, 2024  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 47% | 41%  | 5%[y] | 8%
Marist College[200] | September 19–24, 2024  | 1,264 (LV)  | ± 3.8%  | 54% | 44%  | –  | 1%
1,416 (RV)  | ± 3.6%  | 53% | 44%  | –  | 2%
NYT/Siena College[201] | September 17–21, 2024  | 713 (LV)  | ± 4.1%  | 49% | 43%  | –  | 8%
713 (RV)  | ± 4.1%  | 50% | 41%  | –  | 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[202][E] | September 16–19, 2024  | 789 (LV)  | ± 3.2%  | 46% | 41%  | 3%[u] | 9%
Emerson College[203][C] | September 15–18, 2024  | 868 (LV)  | ± 3.3%  | 48% | 42%  | –  | 10%
Morning Consult[162] | September 9–18, 2024  | 862 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 53% | 39%  | –  | 8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[204] | September 11–12, 2024  | 1,088 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 47% | 43%  | 4%[z] | 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[205][E] | September 6–9, 2024  | 765 (LV)  | ± 3.3%  | 48% | 42%  | 2%[aa] | 8%
Morning Consult[206] | August 30 – September 8, 2024  | 901 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 49% | 41%  | 3%  | 7%
YouGov[207][D] | August 23 – September 3, 2024  | 900 (RV)  | ± 4.2%  | 50% | 42%  | –  | 9%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[208] | August 29–31, 2024  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 49% | 45%  | 2%[ab] | 4%
University of Arizona[209] | August 28–31, 2024  | 1,155 (RV)  | –  | 47% | 36%  | 4%[ac] | 13%
CNN/SRSS[210] | August 23–29, 2024  | 682 (LV)  | ± 4.7%  | 47% | 44%  | 8%[ad] | –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[211][E] | August 25–28, 2024  | 530 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 42% | 37%  | 3%[ae] | 17%
Emerson College[212][C] | August 25–28, 2024  | 720 (LV)  | ± 3.6%  | 49% | 42%  | –  | 9%
Fox News[213] | August 23–26, 2024  | 1,014 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 56% | 41%  | 2%[af] | 1%
Noble Predictive Insights[214] | August 12–16, 2024  | 1,003 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 47% | 40%  | –  | 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[215][E] | August 12–15, 2024  | 592 (LV)  | ± 3.7%  | 44% | 39%  | 4%[ag] | 13%
NYT/Siena College[216] | August 8–15, 2024  | 677 (RV)  | ± 4.1%  | 49% | 41%  | –  | 10%
677 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 51% | 42%  | –  | 8%
WPA Intelligence (R)[217][M] | August 11–13, 2014  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 48% | 46%  | 3%[ah] | 3%
Peak Insights (R)[218][N] | July 31 – August 5, 2024  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 46% | 46% | –  | 8%
HighGround Public Affairs[219] | July 30 – August 5, 2024  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 50% | 39%  | 3%[ai] | 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[220][E] | July 31 – August 3, 2024  | 567 (LV)  | ± 3.8%  | 42% | 36%  | –  | 22%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[221][K] | July 26 – August 2, 2024  | 435 (LV)  | –  | 51% | 42%  | –  | 7%
| July 30, 2024  | Primary elections held
Emerson College[222][O] | July 22–23, 2024  | 800 (RV)  | ± 3.4%  | 46% | 42%  | –  | 12%
| July 21, 2024  | Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race
Public Policy Polling (D)[223][P] | July 19–20, 2014  | 736 (RV)  | –  | 49% | 42%  | –  | 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[224][Q] | July 10–11, 2024  | 596 (RV)  | –  | 50% | 47%  | –  | 4%
J.L. Partners (R)[225][R] | July 10–11, 2024  | 513 (LV)  | ± 4.3%  | 43%  | 44% | –  | 3%
YouGov[226][D] | July 4–12, 2024  | 900 (RV)  | ± 3.9%  | 48% | 41%  | 2%  | 9%
793 (LV)  | –  | 49% | 42%  | 2%  | 8%
Expedition Strategies[227][S] | June 24 – July 8, 2024  | 268 (LV)  | –  | 49% | 45%  | –  | 7%
Remington Research Group (R)[228][T] | June 29 – July 1, 2024  | 638 (LV)  | –  | 47% | 47% | –  | 6%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[229][U] | June 17–20, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 39% | 38%  | 9%[aj] | 13%
Emerson College[230][C] | June 13–18, 2024  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 45% | 41%  | –  | 14%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[231] | June 11–13, 2024  | 750 (RV)  | ± 4.0%  | 44% | 41%  | –  | 15%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[232][H] | May 28 – June 4, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 48% | 45%  | –  | 7%
Mainstreet Research/FAU[233] | May 19–21, 2024  | 609 (RV)  | ± 4.0%  | 44% | 38%  | –  | 18%
501 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 48% | 39%  | –  | 13%
CBS News/YouGov[234] | May 10–16, 2024  | 1,214 (RV)  | ± 3.5%  | 49% | 36%  | –  | 15%
Noble Predictive Insights[117] | May 7–14, 2024  | 1,003 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 46% | 36%  | –  | 18%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[235][K] | May 6–13, 2024  | 527 (LV)  | ± 4.3%  | 46% | 41%  | –  | 13%
NYT/Siena College[236] | April 28 – May 9, 2024  | 626 (RV)  | ± 4.0%  | 45% | 41%  | –  | 14%
626 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 46% | 43%  | –  | 11%
Data Orbital (R)[237] | April 27–29, 2024  | 550 (LV)  | ± 4.3%  | 48% | 44%  | –  | 8%
Emerson College[238][C] | April 25–29, 2024  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 45% | 43%  | –  | 12%
RABA Research[239] | April 9, 2024  | 503 (RV)  | ± 4.4%  | 36% | 28%  | 13%[ak] | 23%
Emerson College[240] | March 12–15, 2024  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 44% | 40%  | –  | 16%
| March 5, 2024  | Kyrsten Sinema announces she will not seek re-election.
Rasmussen Reports (R)[241][B] | February 21–26, 2024  | 1,000 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 42%  | 45% | –  | 13%
Emerson College[242][C] | February 16–19, 2024  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 46% | 39%  | –  | 15%
Noble Predictive Insights[119] | February 6–13, 2024  | 1,002 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 47% | 37%  | –  | 16%
J.L. Partners (R)[243][R] | January 29 – February 1, 2024  | 500 (RV)  | –  | 44%  | 46% | –  | 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[244][V] | January 5–6, 2024  | 590 (V)  | ± 4.0%  | 45%  | 46% | –  | 9%
Cygnal (R)[245] | October 24–25, 2023  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 46% | 43%  | –  | 11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[246][W] | October 24, 2023  | –  | ± 4.4%  | 49% | 44%  | –  | 7%
National Research Inc. (R)[247] | October 8–9, 2023  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 44% | 44% | –  | 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[248][X] | October 6–7, 2023  | 522 (V)  | ± 4.3%  | 48% | 43%  | –  | 9%
Noble Predictive Insights[249] | July 13–17, 2023  | 1000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 45% | 35%  | –  | 20%
OH Predictive Insights[250] | January 31 – February 9, 2023  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 43% | 33%  | –  | 24%
Normington Petts (D)[251][Y] | January 18–23, 2023  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 50% | 45%  | –  | 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[252][X] | December 21, 2022  | 650 (V)  | ± 3.8%  | 48% | 47%  | –  | 5%

Hypothetical polling

Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Kari
Lake (R)  | Kyrsten
Sinema (I)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Rasmussen Reports (R)[241][B] | February 21–26, 2024  | 1,000 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 33%  | 37% | 21%  | 2%[al] | 7%
Emerson College[242][C] | February 16–19, 2024  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 36% | 30%  | 21%  | –  | 13%
Noble Predictive Insights[119] | February 6–13, 2024  | 1,002 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 34% | 31%  | 23%  | –  | 12%
J.L. Partners (R)[243][R] | January 29 – February 1, 2024  | 500 (RV)  | –  | 39%  | 40% | 13%  | –  | 8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[244][V] | January 5–6, 2024  | 590 (V)  | ± 4.0%  | 36% | 35%  | 17%  | –  | 12%
VCreek/AMG (R)[253][Z] | December 1–8, 2023  | 694 (LV)  | ± 3.7%  | 35%  | 41% | 16%  | 1%[am] | 7%
Tulchin Research (D)[254][AA] | November 13–20, 2023  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 39% | 34%  | 17%  | 6%[an] | 4%
Noble Predictive Insights[255] | October 25–31, 2023  | 1,010 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 39% | 33%  | 29%  | –  | –
Cygnal (R)[245] | October 24–25, 2023  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 36%  | 37% | 15%  | –  | 11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[246][W] | October 24, 2023  | –  | ± 4.4%  | 41% | 37%  | 17%  | –  | 5%
National Research Inc. (R)[247] | October 8–9, 2023  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 33%  | 37% | 19%  | –  | 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[248][X] | October 6–7, 2023  | 522 (V)  | ± 4.3%  | 41% | 36%  | 15%  | –  | 8%
Noble Predictive Insights[249] | July 13–17, 2023  | 1000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 34% | 25%  | 26%  | –  | 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[256][X] | April 18–19, 2023  | 559 (V)  | –  | 42% | 35%  | 14%  | –  | 9%
OH Predictive Insights[250] | January 31 – February 9, 2023  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 34% | 26%  | 19%  | –  | 21%
Normington Petts (D)[251][Y] | January 18–23, 2023  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 36% | 36% | 24%  | –  | –
Blueprint Polling (D)[257] | January 5–8, 2023  | 618 (V)  | ± 3.9%  | 32%  | 36% | 14%  | –  | 19%
Public Policy Polling (D)[252][X] | December 21, 2022  | 678 (V)  | ± 3.8%  | 40%  | 41% | 13%  | –  | 6%

Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. "An Independent / third-party candidate"

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Kari
Lake (R)  | Generic
independent  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Bullfinch Group[258] | March 29 – April 3, 2024  | 600 (RV)  | ± 4.0%  | 41% | 41% | 10%  | 8%

Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Doug
Ducey (R)  | Kyrsten
Sinema (I)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/
OH Predictive Insights[259] | January 31 – February 9, 2023  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 38% | 34%  | –  | 28%
32% | 27%  | 17%  | 23%
Normington Petts (D)[251][Y] | January 18–23, 2023  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 37% | 31%  | 27%  | 5%

Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Blake
Masters (R)  | Kyrsten
Sinema (I)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling (D)[248][X] | October 6–7, 2023  | 522 (V)  | ± 4.3%  | 41% | 31%  | 17%  | 11%
Noble Predictive Insights[249] | July 13–17, 2023  | 1000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 44% | 36%  | –  | 20%
32% | 24%  | 28%  | 16%
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/
OH Predictive Insights[259] | January 31 – February 9, 2023  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 43% | 32%  | –  | 26%
33% | 24%  | 22%  | 21%

Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Karrin Taylor
Robson (R)  | Kyrsten
Sinema (I)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/
OH Predictive Insights[259] | January 31 – February 9, 2023  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 36% | 32%  | –  | 32%
31% | 24%  | 21%  | 25%

Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Mark
Lamb (R)  | Kyrsten
Sinema (I)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Noble Predictive Insights[120] | October 25–31, 2023  | 1,010 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 36% | 32%  | 32%  | 0%
Public Policy Polling (D)[248][X] | October 6–7, 2023  | 522 (V)  | ± 4.3%  | 40% | 31%  | 16%  | 13%
Emerson College[67] | August 2–4, 2023  | 1,337 (RV)  | ± 2.6%  | 42% | 42% | –  | 16%
36% | 29%  | 21%  | 15%
Noble Predictive Insights[249] | July 13–17, 2023  | 1000 (RV)  | ± 3.1%  | 40% | 36%  | –  | 24%
33% | 25%  | 24%  | 18%
Public Policy Polling (D)[256][X] | April 18–19, 2023  | 559 (V)  | –  | 43% | 33%  | 15%  | 9%

Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Jim
Lamon (R)  | Kyrsten
Sinema (I)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling (D)[256][X] | April 18–19, 2023  | 559 (V)  | –  | 43% | 27%  | 16%  | 14%

Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error  | Ruben
Gallego (D)  | Brian
Wright (R)  | Kyrsten
Sinema (I)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Emerson College[67] | August 2–4, 2023  | 1,337 (RV)  | ± 2.6%  | 41% | 38%  | –  | 21%
37% | 25%  | 26%  | 12%

### Results

[edit]

2024 United States Senate election in Arizona[260] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %  | ±%

|
|
|
|

| Democratic | Ruben Gallego | 1,676,335  | 50.06%  | +0.10%
| Republican | Kari Lake | 1,595,761  | 47.65%  | +0.04%
| Green | Eduardo Heredia Quintana  | 75,868  | 2.27%  | –0.14%
| Write-in | 850  | 0.02%  | –
Total votes  | 3,348,814  | 100.0%  | N/A
| Democratic gain from Independent

On November 9, 2024, Decision Desk HQ projected that Gallego had won the Senate election in Arizona.[261] On November 12, 2024, the Associated Press projected that Gallego had defeated Lake as well.[6]

#### By congressional district

[edit]

Gallego won 5 of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[262]

District  | Gallego  | Lake  | Representative elected

|
|
|

1st | 52% | 47%  | David Schweikert
2nd | 45%  | 53% | Eli Crane
3rd | 73% | 24%  | Ruben Gallego (118th Congress)
Yassamin Ansari (119th Congress)
4th | 56% | 41%  | Greg Stanton
5th | 43%  | 55% | Andy Biggs
6th | 51% | 46%  | Juan Ciscomani
7th | 63% | 33%  | Raúl Grijalva
8th | 45%  | 53% | Debbie Lesko (118th Congress)
Abraham Hamadeh (119th Congress)
9th | 38%  | 60% | Paul Gosar

#### By county

[edit]

County[263] | Ruben Gallego
Democratic  | Kari Lake
Republican  | Various candidates
Other parties  | Margin  | Total

|
|
|
|
|

#  | %  | #  | %  | #  | %  | #  | %
Apache | 19,901 | 62.46% | 11,283  | 35.41%  | 679  | 2.13%  | 8,618  | 27.05%  | 31,863
Cochise | 23,347  | 40.17%  | 33,184 | 57.10% | 1,585  | 2.73%  | −9,837  | −16.93%  | 58,116
Coconino | 42,924 | 61.77% | 24,825  | 35.73%  | 1,736  | 2.50%  | 18,099  | 26.05%  | 69,485
Gila | 9,330  | 34.14%  | 17,433 | 63.79% | 565  | 2.07%  | −8,103  | −29.65%  | 27,328
Graham | 4,235  | 28.15%  | 10,385 | 69.27% | 373  | 3.59%  | −6,150  | −41.02%  | 14,993
Greenlee | 1,102  | 33.56%  | 2,078 | 63.28% | 373  | 3.17%  | −976  | −29.72%  | 3,284
La Paz | 2,292  | 30.52%  | 4,998 | 66.56% | 219  | 2.92%  | −2,706  | −36.04%  | 7,509
Maricopa | 1,045,766 | 51.50% | 940,465  | 46.31%  | 44,417  | 2.19%  | 105,301  | 5.19%  | 2,030,648
Mohave | 26,578  | 24.50%  | 79,494 | 73.28% | 2,415  | 2.23%  | −52,916  | −48.78%  | 108,487
Navajo | 22,173  | 43.93%  | 27,218 | 53.92% | 1,085  | 2.15%  | −5,045  | −9.99%  | 50,476
Pima | 298,751 | 59.07% | 193,021  | 38.17%  | 13,970  | 2.76%  | 105,730  | 20.91%  | 505,742
Pinal | 86,674  | 41.88%  | 115,595 | 55.86% | 4,672  | 2.26%  | −28,921  | −13.98%  | 206,941
Santa Cruz | 11,986 | 63.23% | 6,370  | 33.61%  | 599  | 3.16%  | 5,616  | 29.62%  | 18,955
Yavapai | 52,077  | 35.22%  | 93,200 | 63.03% | 2,592  | 1.75%  | −41,123  | −27.81%  | 147,869
Yuma | 29,199  | 43.50%  | 36,212 | 53.95% | 1,707  | 2.54%  | −7,013  | −10.45%  | 67,118
Totals  | 1,676,335 | 50.06% | 1,595,761 | 47.65% | 76,618 | 2.29% | 80,574 | 2.41% | 3,348,814

## Notes

[edit]

1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
2. ^ "Someone else" with 6%"
3. ^ Elizabeth Jean Reye with 3%
4. ^ Brian Wright with 6%; George Nicholson with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
5. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
6. ^ a b c d e f "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
7. ^ Quintana (G) with 2%; "Refused" with 2%
8. ^ a b Quintana (G) with 2%
9. ^ Quintana (G) with 1%
10. ^ Quintana (G) with 2%; "Refused" with 2%; "I did not vote on US Senate" with 1%
11. ^ "Someone else" with 8%
12. ^ "Other" with 5%; "Neither" with 1%
13. ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 2%
14. ^ a b "Another candidate" with 1%
15. ^ "Someone Else" with 2%
16. ^ Quintana (G) with 2%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
17. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
18. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%, Quintana (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
19. ^ "Other" with 3%
20. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
21. ^ a b "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%, Quintana (G) with 1%
22. ^ "Other" with 1%
23. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; "Would not vote" with 1%
24. ^ a b "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
25. ^ Quintana (G) with 3%; "Refused" with 2%
26. ^ "Other" with 4%
27. ^ "Other" and Quintana (G) with 1%
28. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
29. ^ "Someone Else" with 4%
30. ^ "Other" with 6%; "Neither" with 2%
31. ^ Quintana (G) with 2%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
32. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
33. ^ "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 3%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
34. ^ Norton (G) with 3%
35. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
36. ^ Quintana (G) with 9%
37. ^ "Someone else" with 13%
38. ^ Wouldn't vote with 2%
39. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
40. ^ "Someone else" with 6%

Partisan clients

1. ^ This poll was sponsored by Primary Sinema
2. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Bull Moose Project.
3. ^ a b c d e f g h Poll sponsored by The Hill
4. ^ a b c Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
5. ^ a b c d e f g h Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
6. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
7. ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
8. ^ a b Poll commissioned by AARP
9. ^ Poll sponsored by Arizona's Family
10. ^ Poll sponsored by Democracy Defense Project
11. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
12. ^ Poll sponsored by USA Today
13. ^ Poll sponsored by Club for Growth, which has endorsed Lake.
14. ^ Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Lake's campaign.
15. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
16. ^ Poll sponsored by the Clean & Prosperous America PAC.
17. ^ Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
18. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Lake's campaign.
19. ^ Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
20. ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
21. ^ Poll sponsored by American Greatness
22. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Replace Sinema PAC.
23. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NRSC.
24. ^ a b c d e f g h i This poll was sponsored by Gallego's campaign
25. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC
26. ^ Poll sponsored by Americas PAC, which supports Republican candidates.
27. ^ Poll conducted for Stand for Children, a non-profit education advocacy group.

## References

[edit]

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135. ^ a b "Remarks by Vice President Harris and Governor Tim Walz at a Campaign Event". The White House. Glendale, Arizona. August 10, 2024. Retrieved October 9, 2024.
136. ^ "Fight Like Hell PAC". Fight Like Hell PAC. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
137. ^ Ford, William J.; Kurtz, Josh (September 5, 2024). "Muñoz quits House, Huntley steps up to council, Boafo launches federal PAC, more moves". Maryland Matters. Retrieved September 5, 2024.
138. ^ Giles, Ben (August 6, 2024). "Harris and Gallego boast endorsements from across the aisle". KJZZ. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
139. ^ a b Hansen, Ronald J. (August 5, 2024). "US Rep. Ruben Gallego rolls out endorsements by 40 Republicans, independents". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
140. ^ Giles, Ben (August 26, 2024). "Arizona Police Association endorses Ruben Gallego for U.S. Senate". KJZZ.
141. ^ Democratic Majority for Israel [@DemMaj4Israel] (September 9, 2024). "Today, DMFI PAC announced its endorsement of fourteen pro-Israel candidates running for the Democratic nomination in key U.S. House and Senate general election races. These seats are critical to electing a Democratic majority in Congress this November" (Tweet). Retrieved September 9, 2024 - via Twitter.
142. ^ "Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund Announces First Major Round of Federal Endorsements". Everytown. August 19, 2024. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
143. ^ Hansen, Ronald J. (October 22, 2024). "National Latino group gives rare endorsement to Senate contender Ruben Gallego in Arizona". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
144. ^ "March For Our Lives Announces First Endorsements in Races Nationwide, Starting in Arizona". March For Our Lives. September 9, 2024. Retrieved September 9, 2024.
145. ^ Gancarski, A.G. (August 10, 2024). "Marco Rubio 'proud to endorse' Kari Lake in Arizona Senate race: Report". Florida Politics. Retrieved December 30, 2024.
146. ^ Roberts, Laurie (August 13, 2024). "Doug Ducey ditches his dignity to endorse Donald Trump and Kari Lake". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on August 15, 2024. Retrieved October 12, 2024.
147. ^ Liebelson, Dana (October 13, 2024). "Normie Republicans Are Having Their Revenge on Kari Lake". Politico. Retrieved October 13, 2024.
148. ^ "PAC Endorsed Candidates". Club for Growth. Retrieved August 12, 2024.
149. ^ YouTube
150. ^ FiveThirtyEight
151. ^ RealClearPolitics
152. ^ 270toWin
153. ^ TheHill/DDHQ
154. ^ AtlasIntel
155. ^ Victory Insights (R)
156. ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
157. ^ Patriot Polling (R)
158. ^ InsiderAdvantage (R)
159. ^ AtlasIntel
160. ^ Emerson College
161. ^ NYT/Siena College
162. ^ a b Morning Consult
163. ^ AtlasIntel
164. ^ OnMessage (R)
165. ^ YouGov
166. ^ ActiVote
167. ^ Noble Predictive Insights
168. ^ Data for Progress (D)
169. ^ AtlasIntel
170. ^ Mitchell Research & Communications
171. ^ Data Orbital (R)
172. ^ RABA Research
173. ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
174. ^ CNN/SRSS
175. ^ Marist College
176. ^ HighGround Public Affairs
177. ^ InsiderAdvantage (R)
178. ^ University of Arizona
179. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
180. ^ AtlasIntel
181. ^ CBS News/YouGov
182. ^ Morning Consult
183. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
184. ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
185. ^ NYT/Siena College
186. ^ ActiVote
187. ^ Emerson College
188. ^ SoCal Strategies (R)
189. ^ RMG Research
190. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
191. ^ Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)
192. ^ InsiderAdvantage (R)
193. ^ HighGround Public Affairs
194. ^ National Research Inc.
195. ^ Emerson College
196. ^ AtlasIntel
197. ^ BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)
198. ^ Fox News
199. ^ Suffolk University
200. ^ Marist College
201. ^ NYT/Siena College
202. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
203. ^ Emerson College
204. ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
205. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
206. ^ Morning Consult
207. ^ YouGov
208. ^ InsiderAdvantage (R)
209. ^ University of Arizona
210. ^ CNN/SRSS
211. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
212. ^ Emerson College
213. ^ Fox News
214. ^ Noble Predictive Insights
215. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
216. ^ NYT/Siena College
217. ^ WPA Intelligence (R)
218. ^ Peak Insights (R)
219. ^ HighGround Public Affairs
220. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
221. ^ BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)
222. ^ Emerson College
223. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
224. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
225. ^ J.L. Partners (R)
226. ^ YouGov
227. ^ Expedition Strategies
228. ^ Remington Research Group (R)
229. ^ North Star Opinion Research (R)
230. ^ Emerson College
231. ^ Rasmussen Reports (R)
232. ^ Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)
233. ^ Mainstreet Research/FAU
234. ^ CBS News/YouGov
235. ^ BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)
236. ^ NYT/Siena College
237. ^ Data Orbital (R)
238. ^ Emerson College
239. ^ RABA Research
240. ^ Emerson College
241. ^ a b Rasmussen Reports (R)
242. ^ a b Emerson College
243. ^ a b J.L. Partners (R)
244. ^ a b Public Policy Polling (D)
245. ^ a b Cygnal (R)
246. ^ a b McLaughlin & Associates (R)
247. ^ a b National Research Inc. (R)
248. ^ a b c d Public Policy Polling (D)
249. ^ a b c d Noble Predictive Insights
250. ^ a b OH Predictive Insights
251. ^ a b c Normington Petts (D)
252. ^ a b Public Policy Polling (D)
253. ^ VCreek/AMG (R)
254. ^ Tulchin Research (D)
255. ^ Noble Predictive Insights
256. ^ a b c Public Policy Polling (D)
257. ^ Blueprint Polling (D)
258. ^ Bullfinch Group
259. ^ a b c Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/
OH Predictive Insights
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## External links

[edit]

Official campaign websites

* Ruben Gallego (D) for Senate
* Kari Lake (R) for Senate
* Eduardo Quintana (G) for Senate
* Sarah Williams (L-WI) for Senate

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*[v]: View this template
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*[OR]: Oregon
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*[NC]: North Carolina
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*[DE]: Delaware
*[IL]: Illinois