2024 United States Senate election in Ohio

Not to be confused with 2024 Ohio Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in Ohio

* * *

| <- 2018 | November 5, 2024 | 2030 ->

|
|

Turnout| 69.9%  15.3 pp
|  |  |

|
|

Nominee  | Bernie Moreno | Sherrod Brown |
Party  | Republican | Democratic
Popular vote  | 2,857,383 | 2,650,949
Percentage  | 50.09% | 46.47%

* * *

County results

Congressional district results

Precinct results

Moreno: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
Brown: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%

* * *

| U.S. senator before election

Sherrod Brown
Democratic

| Elected U.S. senator

Bernie Moreno
Republican

|

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* e

The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown lost re-election to a fourth term, being defeated by Republican nominee Bernie Moreno.[1][2] Primary elections took place on March 19, 2024.[3]

This race was one of two 2024 U.S. Senate races in which Democratic senators sought re-election in states where Republican Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections (the other being Montana). Brown's re-election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the senate majority in 2024.[4]

Although Brown outperformed Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election, receiving around 2.6% more of the vote, it was still not enough to win. Moreno defeated Brown by 3.6 percentage points, which was a slightly larger margin than expected. This was Brown's second general election loss of his political career.

Moreno's campaign was aided by Republican nominee Donald Trump's 11.2% margin of victory in Ohio, helping secure an outright majority for Senate Republicans for the first time since 2021, with a net gain of 4 seats in the 2024 elections.

The victory gave Republicans control of both of Ohio's U.S. Senate seats for the first time since 2007. As Ohio's other U.S. senator, JD Vance, was elected Vice President of the United States, Moreno will become Ohio's senior senator upon Vance's resignation.[a]

## Background

[edit]

After voting for President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, Ohio has trended increasingly Republican in subsequent years and is now considered a red state. Republicans hold all statewide offices in addition to the majority in both chambers of the state legislature. Republicans also have a majority of the state's US House delegation.

Former President Donald Trump won Ohio in 2016 and again in 2020 by 8 points.

Republican JD Vance, now the 2024 Republican vice presidential nominee, defeated Democrat Tim Ryan in the 2022 U.S. Senate election by slightly over 6 points.[5][6]

Brown was first elected in 2006, defeating Senator Mike DeWine (who was subsequently elected governor), and won reelection in 2012 and 2018. If he had been reelected he would have been only the second Ohioan to be elected to the United States Senate four times, the other being John Glenn[7][8][9][10] Brown led most polls for most of the year.[11]

## Democratic primary

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Nominee

[edit]

* Sherrod Brown, incumbent U.S. senator (2007–present)[1]

### Endorsements

[edit]

Sherrod Brown

U.S. senators

* Mark Kelly, Arizona (2020–present)[12]

Political parties

* Ohio Democratic Party[13]

Organizations

* Bend the Arc[14]
* Council for a Livable World[15]
* End Citizens United[16]
* Feminist Majority PAC[17]
* Human Rights Campaign[18]
* Jewish Democratic Council of America[19]
* Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[20]
* J Street PAC[21]
* League of Conservation Voters[22]
* Natural Resources Defense Council[23]
* Planned Parenthood Action Fund[24]
* Population Connection Action Fund[25]
* Reproductive Freedom for All[26]
* Sierra Club[27]
* Swing Left[28]

Labor unions

* National Education Association[29]
* North Shore AFL-CIO[30]

### Fundraising

[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023

Candidate  | Raised  | Spent  | Cash on hand
Sherrod Brown (D)  | $27,838,244  | $14,594,991  | $14,614,497
Source: Federal Election Commission[31]

### Polling

[edit]

Hypothetical polling

Sherrod Brown vs. Tim Ryan vs. Shontel Brown

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Sherrod
Brown  | Shontel
Brown  | Tim
Ryan  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Ohio Northern University[32] | October 16–19, 2023  | 256 (LV)[c] | ± 8.3%  | 58% | 6%  | 15%  | 21%
Ohio Northern University[33] | Jul 17–26, 2023  | 675 (RV)  | ± 3.7%  | 59% | 7%  | 17%  | 17%

### Results

[edit]

Democratic primary results[34] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Democratic | Sherrod Brown (incumbent)  | 535,305  | 100.0%
Total votes  | 535,305  | 100.0%

## Republican primary

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Nominee

[edit]

* Bernie Moreno, former car dealership owner, father-in-law of U.S. representative Max Miller, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022[35]

#### Eliminated in primary

[edit]

* Matt Dolan, state senator from the 24th district (2017–present) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022[36]
* Frank LaRose, Ohio Secretary of State (2019–present)[37]

#### Failed to qualify

[edit]

* Doug Stuart, retired businessman[38][39]

#### Declined

[edit]

* Warren Davidson, U.S. representative for Ohio's 8th congressional district (2016–present) (running for re-election, endorsed Moreno)[40][41]
* Mark Kvamme, venture capitalist and sports car racing driver (endorsed Moreno)[42]
* Josh Mandel, former Ohio State Treasurer (2011–2019), nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and candidate in 2018 and 2022[43]
* Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive[44] (ran unsuccessfully for president, endorsed Moreno)[45][46]

### Debates

[edit]

No. | Date  | Host  | Moderator  | Link  | Candidates

|
|
|
|
|

Key:
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee  W Withdrawn
Matt Dolan  | Frank LaRose  | Bernie Moreno
1  | Jan. 22, 2024  | FOX 8 | Colleen Marshall
Joe Toohey  | FOX 8[47] | P | P | P
2  | Feb. 19, 2024  | Spectrum News | Mike Kallmeyer  | Spectrum News[48] | P | P | P
3  | Mar. 6, 2024  | WLWT | Sheree Paolello  | YouTube | P | P | P

### Endorsements

[edit]

Matt Dolan

U.S. senators

* Rob Portman, Ohio (2011–2023)[49]

Governors

* Mike DeWine, Governor of Ohio (2019–present)[50]

State representatives

* Gayle Manning, HD-52 (2019–present)[51]

Local officials

* Greg Lashutka, former mayor of Columbus (1992–2000)[52]

Individuals

* Dee Haslam, co-owner of the Cleveland Browns[53]
* Jimmy Haslam, co-owner of the Cleveland Browns[53]

Newspapers

* The Plain Dealer (Republican primary only)[54]

Frank LaRose

U.S. representatives

* Mike Turner, OH-10 (2003–present)[55]

State representatives

* Mike Loychik, HD-65 (2021–present)[56]
* Melanie Miller, HD-67 (2023–present)[57]
* Josh Williams, HD-41 (2023–present)[56]

Political parties

* Scioto County Republican Party[58]

Organizations

* Ohio Right to Life (co-endorsement with Moreno)[59]

Bernie Moreno

U.S. presidents

* Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[60]

U.S. ambassadors

* Richard Grenell, former U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)[61]

U.S. senators

* John Barrasso, Wyoming (2007–present)[62]
* Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee (2019–present)[63]
* Norm Coleman, Minnesota (2003–2009)[64]
* Ted Cruz, Texas (2013–present)[65]
* Mike Lee, Utah (2011–present)[66]
* Cynthia Lummis, Wyoming (2021–present)[67]
* Roger Marshall, Kansas (2021–present)[68]
* Rand Paul, Kentucky (2011–present)[68]
* Marco Rubio, Florida (2011–present)[69]
* Eric Schmitt, Missouri (2023–present)[58]
* Tommy Tuberville, Alabama (2021–present)[70]
* JD Vance, Ohio (2023–present)[71]

U.S. representatives

* Warren Davidson, OH-08 (2016–present)[41]
* Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House (1995−1999) from GA-06 (1979−1999)[72]
* Jim Jordan, OH-04 (2007–present)[67]
* Max Miller, OH-07 (2023–present) (candidate's son-in-law)[63]
* Lee Zeldin, NY-01 (2015–2023)[73]

Governors

* Kristi Noem, South Dakota (2019–present)[74]

Statewide officials

* Ken Blackwell, former Ohio Secretary of State (1999–2007)[75]
* Dave Yost, Ohio Attorney General (2019–present)[76]

Individuals

* David Bossie, president of Citizens United[77]
* Mark Kvamme, venture capitalist[42]
* Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor[78]
* Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive and candidate for president in 2024[46]
* Donald Trump Jr., businessman and executive vice president of The Trump Organization[79]

Political parties

* Brown County Republican Party[80]
* Clermont County Republican Party[81]
* Cuyahoga County Republican Party[58]
* Greene County Republican Party[80]
* Preble County Republican Party[80]
* Summit County Republican Party[80]
* Warren County Republican Party[80]

Organizations

* Club for Growth[82]
* Citizens United Political Victory Fund[77]
* Ohio Right to Life (co-endorsement with LaRose)[59]
* Republican Jewish Coalition[83]
* Senate Conservatives Fund[84]
* Turning Point Action PAC[85]

Declined to endorse

Statewide officials

* Jon Husted, Lieutenant Governor of Ohio (2019–present)[86]

Organizations

* Ohio Republican Party[87]
* National Republican Senatorial Committee[88]

### Fundraising

[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of February 28, 2024

Candidate  | Raised  | Spent  | Cash on hand
Matt Dolan (R)  | $11,425,814[d] | $9,089,493  | $2,383,077
Bernie Moreno (R)  | $9,735,460[e] | $7,338,751  | $2,396,709
Frank LaRose (R)  | $2,217,016[f] | $1,625,972  | $591,043
Source: Federal Election Commission[31]

### Polling

[edit]

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Matt
Dolan  | Frank
LaRose  | Bernie
Moreno  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Emerson College[89] | March 17–18, 2024  | 450 (LV)  | ± 4.6%  | 40%  | 16%  | 44% | –
Mainstreet Research/
Florida Atlantic University[90] | March 13–15, 2024  | 818 (RV)  | ± 3.4%  | 31% | 19%  | 29%  | –  | 21%
East Carolina University[91] | March 8–11, 2024  | <1,298 (LV)  | ± 4.6%  | 39% | 27%  | 34%  | –
SurveyUSA[92][A] | March 6–11, 2024  | 533 (LV)  | ± 3.3%  | 18%  | 16%  | 22% | –  | 44%
Emerson College[93] | March 7–10, 2024  | 443 (LV)  | ± 2.6%  | 26% | 16%  | 23%  | 3%  | 32%
SurveyUSA[94][B] | February 27 – March 3, 2024  | 568 (LV)  | ± 4.6%  | 27%  | 21%  | 29% | –  | 23%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[95][C] | February 25–26, 2024  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 19%  | 21%  | 31% | –  | 27%
Emerson College[96] | January 23–25, 2024  | 1844 (RV)  | ± 2.3%  | 15%  | 21%  | 22% | –  | 42%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[97][D] | December 12–14, 2023  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 16%  | 18%  | 22% | –  | 44%
SurveyUSA[98][B] | December 8–12, 2023  | 573 (LV)  | ± 4.6%  | 18%  | 33% | 12%  | 1%[g] | 35%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[99][C] | December 3–5, 2023  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 18%  | 19%  | 23% | –  | 40%
co/efficient (R)[100][C] | November 18–20, 2023  | 950 (LV)  | ± 3.18%  | 13%  | 14%  | 15% | –  | 58%
Emerson College/WJW-TV[101] | November 10–13, 2023  | 468 (LV)  | ± 4.5%  | 15%  | 18% | 10%  | 32%[h] | 25%
Data for Progress (D)[102] | October 31 – November 2, 2023  | 294 (LV)  | ± 6.0%  | 20%  | 30% | 7%  | 0%[i] | 43%
Ohio Northern University[103] | October 16–19, 2023  | 269 (LV)[j] | ± 8.2%  | 13%  | 30% | 7%  | 2%  | 49%
Ohio Northern University[104] | July 17–26, 2023  | 675 (RV)  | ± 3.7%  | 18%  | 32% | 7%  | 1%  | 43%
Suffolk/USA Today[105] | July 9–12, 2023  | 190 (RV)  | –  | 14%  | 19% | 9%  | –  | 57%
East Carolina University[106] | June 21–24, 2023  | 405 (RV)  | ± 4.0%  | 14%  | 17% | 7%  | 4%  | 58%
Causeway Solutions (R)[107][E] | May 19–27, 2023  | 526 (RV)  | ± 2.5%  | 11%  | 24% | 6%  | 17%  | 42%

### Results

[edit]

Results by county:

Moreno

* 40–50%

* 50–60%

* 60–70%

Vote share of Bernie Moreno (left), Matt Dolan (center), Frank LaRose (right) by counties Republican primary results[34] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Republican | Bernie Moreno | 557,626  | 50.48%
| Republican | Matt Dolan | 363,013  | 32.86%
| Republican | Frank LaRose | 184,111  | 16.67%
Total votes  | 1,104,750  | 100.0%

## Libertarian Party

[edit]

### Nominee

[edit]

* Don Kissick, auto worker and nominee for Ohio's 5th congressional district in 2018[108]

## Write-in candidates

[edit]

### Declared

[edit]

* Stephen Faris, electrical engineer[109]
* David Allen Pastorius[109]
* Nathan Russell[109]
* Tariq Shabazz (Green Party), U.S. Navy veteran and perennial candidate[109][110]

## General election

[edit]

### Predictions

[edit]

Source  | Ranking  | As of

|
|

The Cook Political Report[111] | Tossup  | September 25, 2024
Inside Elections[112] | Tossup  | September 26, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[113] | Lean R (flip) | November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[114] | Tossup  | September 27, 2024
Elections Daily[115] | Lean D  | November 4, 2024
CNalysis[116] | Tilt D  | November 4, 2024
RealClearPolitics[117] | Tossup  | September 28, 2024
Split Ticket[118] | Tossup  | October 23, 2024
538[119] | Tossup  | October 23, 2024

### Post-primary endorsements

[edit]

Sherrod Brown (D)

Governors

* Andy Beshear, Kentucky (2019–present)[120]
* Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan (2019–present)[121]
* Bob Taft, Ohio (1999–2007) (Republican)[122]

Individuals

* Harry Dunn, former U.S. Capitol Police officer[123]

Organizations

* Giffords[124]
* People for the American Way[125]

Labor unions

* Actors' Equity Association[126]
* Communications Workers of America[127]
* Ohio Federation of Teachers[128]
* United Auto Workers of America[129]
* United Mine Workers of America[130]

Bernie Moreno (R)

Governors

* Mike DeWine, Ohio (2019–present)[131]

Federal officials

* John Bolton, former National Security Advisor (2018–2019) and former Ambassador to the United Nations (2005–2006)[132]

U.S. Senators

* John Thune, Senate Minority Whip (2021–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)[133]

Statewide officials

* Keith Faber, Ohio State Auditor (2019–present)[134]
* Jon Husted, Lieutenant Governor of Ohio (2019–present)[134]
* Frank LaRose, Ohio Secretary of State (2019–present)[134]
* Robert Sprague, Ohio State Treasurer (2019–present)[134]

Organizations

* Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America[135]
* College Republicans of America [136]

### Fundraising

[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024

Candidate  | Raised  | Spent  | Cash on hand
Sherrod Brown (D)  | $91,399,138  | $88,358,633  | $4,411,749
Bernie Moreno (R)  | $24,237,971[k] | $21,447,672  | $2,636,429
Source: Federal Election Commission[31]

### Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation  | Dates
administered  | Dates
updated  | Sherrod
Brown (D)  | Bernie
Moreno (R)  | Undecided
[l] | Margin

|
|
|
|
|
|

FiveThirtyEight[137] | through November 4, 2024  | November 4, 2024  | 47.1%  | 47.8% | 5.1%  | Moreno +0.7
RealClearPolitics[138] | October 23 – November 4, 2024  | November 4, 2024  | 46.3%  | 48.0% | 5.7%  | Moreno +1.7%
270toWin[139] | October 10 – November 4, 2024  | November 4, 2024  | 47.3% | 47.0%  | 5.7%  | Brown +0.3
TheHill/DDHQ[140] | through November 4, 2024  | November 4, 2024  | 46.8%  | 48.9% | 4.3%  | Moreno +2.1
Average | 46.9%  | 47.9% | 5.2%  | Moreno +1.0
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Sherrod
Brown (D)  | Bernie
Moreno (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

The Trafalgar Group (R)[141] | November 2–4, 2024  | 1,095 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 48% | 48% | 2%  | 2%
AtlasIntel[142] | November 1–4, 2024  | 1,022 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 46%  | 49% | 3%[m] | 3%
Emerson College[143][F] | October 30 – November 2, 2024  | 900 (LV)  | ± 3.2%  | 45%  | 48% | –  | 6%
48%[n] | 52% | –  | –
Morning Consult[144] | October 23 – November 1, 2024  | 1,254 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 46%  | 47% | –  | 7%
Miami University[145] | October 28–30, 2024  | 857 (RV)  | ± 5.0%  | 48% | 46%  | 3%[o] | 2%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[146] | October 25–28, 2024  | 1,127 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 48% | 47%  | 2%  | 3%
ActiVote[147] | October 14–28, 2024  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 49%  | 51% | –  | –
J.L. Partners (R)[148] | October 22–24, 2024  | 997 (LV)  | ± 3.1%  | 46%  | 52% | 3%  | –
University of Akron[149] | September 12 – October 24, 2024  | 1,241 (RV)  | ± 2.8%  | 46% | 44%  | –  | 10%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[150][G] | October 19–22, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 47%  | 49% | 3%[p] | 3%
Bowling Green State University/YouGov[151] | October 10–21, 2024  | 1,000 (LV)  | ± 3.6%  | 47% | 45%  | 1%[q] | 7%
ActiVote[152] | September 23 – October 20, 2024  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 48%  | 52% | –  | –
Morning Consult[144] | October 6–15, 2024  | 490 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 46%  | 47% | 1%  | 6%
The Washington Post[153] | October 3–7, 2024  | 1,002 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 48% | 47%  | 1%[r] | 3%
1,002 (RV)  | 48% | 47%  | 1%[s] | 4%
Marist College[154] | October 3–7, 2024  | 1,327 (LV)  | ± 3.2%  | 50% | 48%  | –  | 2%
1,511 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 49% | 48%  | 1%[t] | 2%
Bowling Green State University/YouGov[155] | September 18–27, 2024  | 1,000 (LV)  | ± 3.6%  | 49% | 45%  | –  | 6%
NYT/Siena College[156] | September 21–26, 2024  | 687 (LV)  | ± 4.2%  | 47% | 43%  | –  | 10%
687 (RV)  | ± 4.1%  | 46% | 41%  | –  | 13%
ActiVote[157] | August 16 – September 22, 2024  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 49%  | 51% | –  | –
RMG Research[158][H] | September 18–20, 2024  | 781 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 46%  | 48% | 5%[u] | –
Morning Consult[144] | September 9–18, 2024  | 1,488 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 46% | 44%  | –  | 10%
Morning Consult[159] | August 30 – September 8, 2024  | 1,558 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 46% | 43%  | –  | 11%
SoCal Strategies (R)[160][I] | August 31 – September 1, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | –  | 50% | 45%  | –  | 5%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[161][J] | August 13–17, 2024  | 1,267 (LV)  | –  | 47% | 42%  | –  | 11%
ActiVote[162] | July 20 – August 12, 2024  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 52.5% | 47.5%  | –  | –
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[163][K] | July 23–28, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 46% | 42%  | 1%  | 11%
Remington Research Group (R)[164][L] | June 29 – July 1, 2024  | 611 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 50% | 44%  | –  | 7%
Marist College[165] | June 3–6, 2024  | 1,137 (RV)  | ± 3.6%  | 50% | 45%  | 1%  | 4%
National Public Affairs[166] | May 28–29, 2024  | 801 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 54% | 46%  | –  | –
| March 19, 2024  | Primary elections held
Mainstreet Research/FAU[167] | March 13–15, 2024  | 818 (RV)  | ± 3.4%  | 47% | 36%  | –  | 17%
East Carolina University[91] | March 8–11, 2024  | 1,298 (LV)  | ± 3.2%  | 45% | 41%  | 3%  | 12%
SurveyUSA[92][A] | March 6–11, 2024  | 533 (LV)  | ± 3.3%  | 43% | 37%  | –  | 20%
Emerson College[93] | March 7–10, 2024  | 1,300 (RV)  | ± 2.6%  | 39% | 34%  | 6%  | 21%
Emerson College[96] | January 23–25, 2024  | 1844 (RV)  | ± 2.3%  | 39% | 37%  | 5%  | 18%
Emerson College[168][M] | November 10–13, 2023  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 42% | 32%  | –  | 26%
Data for Progress (D)[102] | October 31 – November 2, 2023  | 597 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 47% | 44%  | –  | 9%
Ohio Northern University[169] | October 16–19, 2023  | 668 (RV)  | ± 3.8%  | 48% | 26%  | 1%  | 25%
Emerson College[170] | October 1–3, 2023  | 438 (RV)  | ± 4.5%  | 35% | 33%  | –  | 32%
Ohio Northern University[33] | July 17–26, 2023  | 675 (RV)  | ± 3.7%  | 45% | 28%  | 0%  | 27%
Suffolk University[171] | July 9–12, 2023  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 48% | 41%  | –  | 10%
East Carolina University[106] | June 21–24, 2023  | 805 (RV)  | ± 4.0%  | 46% | 42%  | 2%  | 11%

Hypothetical polling

Sherrod Brown vs. Matt Dolan

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Sherrod
Brown (D)  | Matt
Dolan (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Mainstreet Research/FAU[167] | March 13–15, 2024  | 818 (RV)  | ± 3.4%  | 45% | 41%  | –  | 14%
East Carolina University[91] | March 8–11, 2024  | 1,298 (LV)  | ± 3.2%  | 41%  | 43% | 4%  | 12%
SurveyUSA[92][A] | March 6–11, 2024  | 533 (LV)  | ± 3.3%  | 42% | 39%  | –  | 18%
Emerson College[93] | March 7–10, 2024  | 1,300 (RV)  | ± 2.6%  | 37% | 34%  | 7%  | 22%
Emerson College[96] | January 23–25, 2024  | 1844 (RV)  | ± 2.3%  | 38% | 37%  | 5%  | 20%
Emerson/WJW-TV[172] | November 10–13, 2023  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 41% | 38%  | –  | 22%
Data for Progress (D)[102] | October 31 – November 2, 2023  | 597 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 47% | 46%  | –  | 7%
Ohio Northern University[173] | October 16–19, 2023  | 668 (RV)  | ± 3.8%  | 45% | 30%  | 0%  | 25%
Emerson College[170] | October 1–3, 2023  | 438 (RV)  | ± 4.5%  | 36%  | 38% | –  | 26%
Ohio Northern University[33] | July 17–26, 2023  | 675 (RV)  | ± 3.7%  | 45% | 33%  | 0%  | 22%
Suffolk University[171] | July 9–12, 2023  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 46% | 43%  | –  | 11%
East Carolina University[106] | June 21–24, 2023  | 805 (RV)  | ± 4.0%  | 45% | 44%  | 4%  | 7%

Sherrod Brown vs. Frank LaRose

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Sherrod
Brown (D)  | Frank
LaRose (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Mainstreet Research/
Florida Atlantic University[90] | March 13–15, 2024  | 818 (RV)  | ± 3.4%  | 48% | 37%  | –  | 15%
East Carolina University[91] | March 8–11, 2024  | 1,298 (LV)  | ± 3.2%  | 45% | 40%  | 4%  | 12%
SurveyUSA[92][A] | March 6–11, 2024  | 533 (LV)  | ± 3.3%  | 44% | 36%  | –  | 19%
Emerson College[93] | March 7–10, 2024  | 1,300 (RV)  | ± 2.6%  | 39% | 33%  | 7%  | 21%
Emerson College[96] | January 23–25, 2024  | 1844 (RV)  | ± 2.3%  | 39% | 37%  | 6%  | 18%
Emerson/WJW-TV[172] | November 10–13, 2023  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 41% | 36%  | –  | 24%
Data for Progress (D)[102] | October 31 – November 2, 2023  | 597 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 46% | 46% | –  | 8%
Ohio Northern University[173] | October 16–19, 2023  | 668 (RV)  | ± 3.8%  | 44% | 31%  | 0%  | 25%
Emerson College[170] | October 1–3, 2023  | 438 (RV)  | ± 4.5%  | 38%  | 39% | –  | 23%
Ohio Northern University[33] | July 17–26, 2023  | 675 (RV)  | ± 3.7%  | 45% | 32%  | 0%  | 23%
Suffolk University[171] | July 9–12, 2023  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 45% | 45% | –  | 10%
East Carolina University[106] | June 21–24, 2023  | 805 (RV)  | ± 4.0%  | 44% | 42%  | 4%  | 11%

Sherrod Brown vs. Joel Mutchler

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Sherrod
Brown (D)  | Joel
Mutchler (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Data for Progress (D)[102] | October 31 – November 2, 2023  | 597 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 48% | 43%  | \-  | 9%

Sherrod Brown vs. generic Republican

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Sherrod
Brown (D)  | Generic
Republican  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

Causeway Solutions (R)[107][E] | May 19–27, 2023  | 1639 (RV)  | ± 2.5%  | 39% | 37%  | 24%

### Results

[edit]

2024 United States Senate election in Ohio[174] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %  | ±%

|
|
|
|

| Republican | Bernie Moreno | 2,857,383  | 50.09%  | +3.51%
| Democratic | Sherrod Brown (incumbent)  | 2,650,949  | 46.47%  | −6.93%
| Libertarian | Don Kissick  | 195,648  | 3.43%  | +3.43%
| Write-in | 640  | 0.01%  | -0.01%
Total votes  | 5,704,620  | 100.00%  |
Turnout |  | 69.91%  | +15.26
| Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Ashtabula (largest city: Ashtabula)
* Erie (largest city: Sandusky)
* Lake (largest city: Mentor)
* Mahoning (largest city: Youngstown)
* Ottawa (largest city: Port Clinton)
* Portage (largest city: Kent)
* Trumbull (largest city: Warren)
* Wood (largest city: Bowling Green)

#### By congressional district

[edit]

Moreno won 9 of 15 congressional districts, with the remaining six going to Brown, including one that elected a Republican.[175]

District  | Brown  | Moreno  | Representative

|
|
|

1st | 54% | 43%  | Greg Landsman
2nd | 29%  | 67% | Brad Wenstrup (118th Congress)
David Taylor (119th Congress)
3rd | 71% | 26%  | Joyce Beatty
4th | 34%  | 62% | Jim Jordan
5th | 38%  | 58% | Bob Latta
6th | 37%  | 60% | Michael Rulli
7th | 48%  | 49% | Max Miller
8th | 40%  | 57% | Warren Davidson
9th | 48% | 47%  | Marcy Kaptur
10th | 49% | 48%  | Mike Turner
11th | 78% | 19%  | Shontel Brown
12th | 36%  | 60% | Troy Balderson
13th | 52% | 44%  | Emilia Sykes
14th | 44%  | 52% | David Joyce
15th | 47%  | 49% | Mike Carey

## Notes

[edit]

1. ^ If the appointed Senator will replace Vice President-elect JD Vance from the other seat on or before the start of the 119th Congress, will be ahead of Moreno, depending on the timing of such appointment.
2. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
3. ^ A subset of poll respondents who said they planned to vote in the Democratic primary
4. ^ $9,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Dolan
5. ^ $4,200,000 of this total was self-funded by Moreno
6. ^ $250,000 of this total was self-funded by LaRose
7. ^ Joel Mutchler with 1%
8. ^ "Someone else" with 29%; Joel Mutchler with 3%
9. ^ Joel Mutchler with 0%
10. ^ A subset of poll respondents who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary
11. ^ $4,500,838 of this total was self-funded by Moreno
12. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
13. ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
14. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
15. ^ Kissick (L) with 3%;"Other" with <1%
16. ^ Kissick (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
17. ^ "Did not vote for Senator" with 1%
18. ^ "Wouldn't Vote" with 1%
19. ^ "Wouldn't Vote" with 1%
20. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
21. ^ "Won't Vote" with 5%

Partisan clients

1. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Ohio Northern University Institute for Civics and Public Policy
2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Center for Election Science
3. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Moreno's campaign
4. ^ Poll sponsored by Buckeye Values PAC, which supports Moreno
5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Leadership for Ohio Fund, which supports LaRose
6. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill
7. ^ Poll sponsored by Senate Opportunity Fund, a super PAC that primarily supports Republican candidates in U.S. Senate races
8. ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
9. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, the latter of which supports Republican candidates
10. ^ Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA, a conservative group
11. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP
12. ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
13. ^ Poll sponsored by WGW-TV

## References

[edit]

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73. ^ Tobias, Andrew J. (June 2, 2023). "Pro-State Issue 1 campaign details strategy in closed-door meeting: Capitol Letter". The Plain Dealer.
74. ^ Wallace, Danielle (January 28, 2024). "Trump ally Moreno picks up Noem endorsement, rises to top Ohio Republican vying to boot Democrat Sherrod Brown". Fox News. Retrieved February 2, 2024.
75. ^ Smyth, Julie Carr (January 23, 2024). "Businessman Bernie Moreno, Trump's Senate pick in Ohio, faced discrimination lawsuits, the AP finds". Associated Press. Retrieved January 27, 2024.
76. ^ Tobias, Andrew J. (January 30, 2024). "Ohio AG Dave Yost endorses Bernie Moreno for U.S. Senate". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved January 30, 2024.
77. ^ a b "David N. Bossie and Citizens United Political Victory Fund Endorse Bernie Moreno for U.S. Senate from Ohio". Citizens United Political Victory Fund. February 7, 2024. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
78. ^ Poling, Hannah (August 7, 2023). "Kari Lake Endorses Republican Businessman Bernie Moreno for U.S. Senate at Ohio GOP Rally". The Ohio Star. Retrieved August 8, 2023.
79. ^ Hulsey, Lynn (February 29, 2024). "Trump Jr., touts Moreno as 'my father's guy' at rally in Butler County". Dayton Daily News. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
80. ^ a b c d e Burd, Aaron (January 22, 2024). "Senate race: 'Women for Matt' Coalition, Moreno gains traction as lawsuits resurface". WCMH-TV. Retrieved January 27, 2024.
81. ^ "2024 Clermont County Republican Central Committee Endorsed Candidates". Clermont County Republican Party. Retrieved January 27, 2024.
82. ^ Holt, Matt (January 3, 2024). "Club for Growth PAC Backs Ohio Republican Bernie Moreno in Key Senate Primary". The Messenger. Archived from the original on January 3, 2024. Retrieved January 4, 2024.
83. ^ "RJC Congratulates and Endorses Ohio's Next US Senator: Bernie Moreno". Republican Jewish Coalition. Retrieved May 14, 2024.
84. ^ Fund, Senate Conservatives (March 13, 2024). "Bernie Moreno for U.S. Senate". Senate Conservatives Fund. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
85. ^ "2024 Endorsements". Turning Point Action. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
86. ^ Boney, Stan (December 27, 2023). "Ohio leader talks marijuana, jobs and 2026 governor's race". WKBN-TV. Retrieved January 2, 2024. "'I don't intend on endorsing in the Senate race'...Husted said."
87. ^ Tobias, Andrew J. (December 1, 2023). "Ohio Republican Party endorses Donald Trump in 2024 election". The Plain Dealer. Retrieved January 2, 2024. "The party issued no other primary election endorsements on Friday, including in the heated Republican Party for U.S. Senate"
88. ^ Mueller, Julia (July 19, 2023). "Ohio GOP braces for critical primary in bid to oust Sherrod Brown". The Hill. Retrieved September 26, 2023. "The chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), told CBS News last week that his group...plans to stay neutral in the Ohio race."
89. ^ Emerson College
90. ^ a b Mainstreet Research/
Florida Atlantic University
91. ^ a b c d East Carolina University
92. ^ a b c d SurveyUSA
93. ^ a b c d Emerson College
94. ^ SurveyUSA
95. ^ Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
96. ^ a b c d Emerson College
97. ^ McLaughlin & Associates (R)
98. ^ SurveyUSA
99. ^ Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
100. ^ co/efficient (R)
101. ^ Emerson College/WJW-TV
102. ^ a b c d e Data for Progress (D)
103. ^ Ohio Northern University
104. ^ Ohio Northern University
105. ^ Suffolk/USA Today
106. ^ a b c d East Carolina University
107. ^ a b Causeway Solutions (R)
108. ^ "Secretary LaRose Confirms Statewide Candidates Qualified To Appear on November 5th General Election Ballot". Ohio Secretary of State. August 23, 2024.
109. ^ a b c d "November 5, 2024 General Election Candidates List" (PDF).
110. ^ "Tariq Shabazz for U.S. Senate". The Green Party of the United States. Retrieved November 4, 2024.
111. ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
112. ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
113. ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
114. ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
115. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
116. ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
117. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
118. ^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. May 25, 2023. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
119. ^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 11, 2024. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
120. ^ "Beshear's PAC issues first wave of endorsements". WKU Public Radio | The Public Radio Service of Western Kentucky University. March 26, 2024. Retrieved March 27, 2024.
121. ^ A. O. L. Staff (May 17, 2024). "Whitmer's Fight Like Hell PAC releases initial Senate endorsements". www.aol.com. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
122. ^ "Republican Governor Bob Taft Endorses Sherrod for Reelection". Mercer County Outlook. October 20, 2024. Retrieved October 20, 2024.
123. ^ Kurtz, Josh (July 10, 2024). "Dunn's new PAC backs 10 Democratic Senate candidates, including Alsobrooks". Maryland Matters. Maryland Matters. Retrieved July 11, 2024.
124. ^ "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Senator Sherrod Brown for Reelection". Giffords. May 21, 2024. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
125. ^ "People For Endorses Seven New and Incumbent Senate Candidates in "Defend the Senate" Campaign". People for the American Way (Press release). July 29, 2024. Retrieved July 29, 2024.
126. ^ "Actors' Equity Association Endorses Sherrod Brown for United States Senate". www.actorsequity.org. Actors' Equity Association. September 9, 2024. Retrieved September 11, 2024.
127. ^ "2024 Ohio | CWA Endorsed Candidates | Communications Workers of America". cwa-union.org. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
128. ^ "OFT Votes: Endorsements and Voter Information for the 2024 General Election | Ohio Federation of Teachers, AFT, AFL-CIO". www.oft-aft.org. June 10, 2024. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
129. ^ "United Auto Workers endorses Sherrod Brown for re-election". Chronicle Times. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
130. ^ "Ohio - COMPAC Endorsements". United Mine Workers of America. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
131. ^ "Ohio Senate race: Mike DeWine backs Bernie Moreno". The Columbus Dispatch. March 20, 2024. Retrieved March 24, 2024.
132. ^ "Ambassador John Bolton Endorses Bernie Moreno for U.S. Senate for Ohio". John Bolton PAC. September 16, 2024. Retrieved September 16, 2024.
133. ^ Mutnick, Ally (October 15, 2024). "John Thune doles out the money as he runs for Senate GOP leader". Politico. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
134. ^ a b c d "Frank LaRose joins other GOP Ohio officeholders in endorsing Bernie Moreno". WBNS-TV. Columbus. March 21, 2024. Retrieved March 24, 2024.
135. ^ Callahan, Anna (June 7, 2024). "Leading Nat'l Pro-Life Group Backs Moreno in OH-Sen Race". SBA Pro-Life America. Retrieved June 13, 2024.
136. ^ "College Republicans of America is proud to be endorsing 𝗕𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗼 for U.S. Senate in Ohio".
137. ^ FiveThirtyEight
138. ^ RealClearPolitics
139. ^ 270toWin
140. ^ TheHill/DDHQ
141. ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
142. ^ AtlasIntel
143. ^ Emerson College
144. ^ a b c Morning Consult
145. ^ Miami University
146. ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
147. ^ ActiVote
148. ^ J.L. Partners (R)
149. ^ University of Akron
150. ^ OnMessage Inc. (R)
151. ^ Bowling Green State University/YouGov
152. ^ ActiVote
153. ^ The Washington Post
154. ^ Marist College
155. ^ Bowling Green State University/YouGov
156. ^ NYT/Siena College
157. ^ ActiVote
158. ^ RMG Research
159. ^ Morning Consult
160. ^ SoCal Strategies (R)
161. ^ Rasmussen Reports (R)
162. ^ ActiVote
163. ^ Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)
164. ^ Remington Research Group (R)
165. ^ Marist College
166. ^ National Public Affairs
167. ^ a b Mainstreet Research/FAU
168. ^ Emerson College
169. ^ Ohio Northern University
170. ^ a b c Emerson College
171. ^ a b c Suffolk University
172. ^ a b Emerson/WJW-TV
173. ^ a b Ohio Northern University
174. ^ "Results by County". OH SOS. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
175. ^ "2024 U.S. Senate Election in Ohio: Official Results".

## External links

[edit]

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*[v]: View this template
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