2024 United States Senate election in Washington

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.

Not to be confused with 2024 Washington State Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in Washington

* * *

| <- 2018 | November 5, 2024 | 2030 ->

|
|

|  |  |

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Nominee  | Maria Cantwell | Raul Garcia  |
Party  | Democratic | Republican

* * *

| Incumbent U.S. senator

Maria Cantwell
Democratic

|

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* v
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Washington will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington. Incumbent four-term Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell was first elected in 2000, narrowly defeating Republican incumbent Slade Gorton. In her most recent re-election campaign, Cantwell won with 58.3% of the vote in 2018. Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024.[1]

## Primary election

[edit]

### Democratic candidates

[edit]

#### Advanced to general

[edit]

* Maria Cantwell, incumbent U.S. senator[2]

#### Eliminated in primary

[edit]

* Paul Giesick, blue collar worker[3]

### Republican candidates

[edit]

#### Advanced to general

[edit]

* Raul Garcia, physician and candidate for governor in 2020[4]

#### Eliminated in primary

[edit]

* Goodspaceguy, amateur astronomer and perennial candidate[3]
* Isaac Holyk, software development company CEO and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[3]
* Scott Nazarino, financial consultant and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[3]
* Mel Ram, private investigator[3]

#### Declined

[edit]

* John Guenther, retired state employee and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 (ran for U.S. House)[5]

### Third party and independent candidates

[edit]

#### Eliminated in primary

[edit]

* Thor Amundson (Independent), project expediter and perennial candidate[3]
* Henry Dennison (Socialist Workers), political organizer and perennial candidate[3]
* Chuck Jackson (Independent), merchant mariner and perennial candidate[3]
* David Tilton (Independent), data analyst[3]

### Endorsements

[edit]

Maria Cantwell (D)

Organizations

* American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)[6]
* EMILY's List[7]
* Feminist Majority PAC[8]
* Humane Society Legislative Fund[9]
* Jewish Democratic Council of America[10]
* Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[11]
* J Street PAC[12]
* League of Conservation Voters[13]
* Natural Resources Defense Council[14]
* National Women's Political Caucus[15]
* Planned Parenthood Action Fund[16]
* Population Connection Action Fund[17]

Labor unions

* National Education Association[18]
* Washington State Labor Council[19]

Newspapers

* The Seattle Times[20]
* The Stranger[21]

Tribes

* Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation[22]

Raul Garcia (R)

U.S. representatives

* Dave Reichert (WA-08) (2005–2019)[23]

Statewide officials

* Daniel J. Evans, former governor of Washington (1965–1977)[24]
* Rob McKenna, former attorney general of Washington (2005–2013)[24]
* Ralph Munro, former secretary of state of Washington (1981–2001)[24]
* Sam Reed, former secretary of state of Washington (2001–2013)[24]

State legislators

* Dino Rossi, former state senator (1997–2003, 2012, 2016–2017)[24]

Local officials

* Bruce Dammeier, Pierce County Executive[24]

Political parties

* Washington State Republican Party[25]
* Spokane County Republican Party[26]

### Fundraising

[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024

Candidate  | Raised  | Spent  | Cash on hand
Maria Cantwell (D)  | $11,651,974  | $5,128,836  | $7,093,030
Raul Garcia (R)  | $558,646  | $394,077  | $164,568
Isaac Holyk (R)  | $6,846  | $7,278  | $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[27]

### Results

[edit]

Results by county:

Cantwell—70–80%

Cantwell—50–60%

Cantwell—40–50%

Cantwell—30–40%

Garcia—30–40%

Garcia—40–50%

Cantwell won 28 counties out of 39, including 9 out of the state's 10 most populous ones. She performed especially well in the most populous King County, as well as San Juan and Washington counties.[28]

Blanket primary results[29] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Democratic | Maria Cantwell (incumbent)  | 1,114,327  | 57.18%
| Republican | Raul Garcia  | 431,182  | 22.13%
| Republican | Scott Nazarino  | 111,386  | 5.72%
| Republican | Isaac Holyk  | 110,701  | 5.68%
| Republican | Mel Ram  | 86,956  | 4.46%
| Independent | Chuck Jackson  | 21,055  | 1.08%
| Independent | David Tilton  | 17,561  | 0.90%
| Democratic | Paul Giesick  | 17,433  | 0.89%
| Republican | Goodspaceguy | 16,826  | 0.86%
| Independent | Thor Amundson  | 10,587  | 0.54%
| Socialist Workers | Henry Dennison  | 7,840  | 0.40%
| Write-in | 2,862  | 0.15%
Total votes  | 1,948,716  | 100.0%

## General election

[edit]

### Predictions

[edit]

Source  | Ranking  | As of

|
|

The Cook Political Report[30] | Solid D  | November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[31] | Solid D  | November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] | Safe D  | November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[33] | Safe D  | June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[34] | Safe D  | May 4, 2023
CNalysis[35] | Solid D  | November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[36] | Solid D  | August 5, 2024

### Polling

[edit]

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error | Maria
Cantwell (D)  | Raul
Garcia (R) | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | July 24–25, 2024  | 581 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 55% | 32%  | 13%
SurveyUSA[B] | July 10–13, 2024  | 564 (LV)  | ± 5.1%  | 58% | 37%  | 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | May 15–16, 2024  | 615 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 53% | 38%  | 9%
Elway Research[C] | May 13–16, 2024  | 403 (RV)  | ± 5%  | 39% | 30%  | 31%[b]
Echelon Insights[D] | March 18–21, 2024  | 600 (RV)  | ± 4.7%  | 44% | 36%  | 20%
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | February 13–14, 2024  | 789 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 53% | 37%  | 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | November 14–15, 2023  | 700 (LV)  | ± 3.7%  | 51% | 38%  | 11%
Elway Research[C] | October 30 – November 3, 2023  | 403 (RV)  | ± 5%  | 43% | 23%  | 34%[c]

Hypothetical polling

Maria Cantwell vs. Jaime Herrera Beutler
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[a] | Margin
of error | Maria
Cantwell (D)  | Jaime
Herrera Beutler (R) | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | June 7–8, 2023  | 773 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 52% | 37%  | 11%
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | March 7–8, 2023  | 874 (LV)  | ± 3.3%  | 50% | 35%  | 14%

### Results

[edit]

2024 United States Senate election in Washington  Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %  | ±%

|
|
|
|

| Democratic | Maria Cantwell (incumbent)  |  |  |
| Republican | Raul Garcia  |  |  |
| Write-in |  |  |
Total votes  |  |  |

## Notes

[edit]

1. ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
2. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
3. ^ "A different Republican" with 6%; "A different Democrat" with 3%

Partisan clients

1. ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
2. ^ Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING-TV, and University of Washington Information School
3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Crosscut.com
4. ^ Poll sponsored by Concerned Taxpayers of Washington State PAC

## References

[edit]

1. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
2. ^ Everett, Burgess (April 13, 2023). "Will Women US Senators Run the Table in 2024?". Smart Politics. Retrieved July 7, 2023. "eight of the 14 women in the chamber up for election have already announced they are seeking another term: Republican Deb Fischer of Nebraska and Democrats Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Jacky Rosen of Nevada (pictured), Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Maria Cantwell of Washington, and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin."
3. ^ a b c d e f g h i "PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List". voter.votewa.gov. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
4. ^ Sowersby, Shauna (July 7, 2023). "Raul Garcia drops out of governor's race, will run for US Senate in 2024". KING-TV. Retrieved July 7, 2023.
5. ^ Dinman, Emry (February 16, 2024). "Brian Dansel and John Guenther enter race for Congress; Michael Baumgartner, Nadine Woodward considering". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved February 16, 2024. "[Guenther] initially planned to run for Senate again, this time against Cantwell, but decided to run for U.S. House"
6. ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
7. ^ Wang, Danni (April 27, 2023). "Emilys List Endorses Maria Cantwell for Reelection to the United States Senate". Emilys List. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
8. ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
9. ^ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
10. ^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
11. ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
12. ^ "Maria Cantwell". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
13. ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
14. ^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
15. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved March 18, 2024.
16. ^ "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Retrieved November 6, 2023.
17. ^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
18. ^ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved May 26, 2024.
19. ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (May 19, 2024). "Read the list of candidates endorsed by the Washington State Labor Council for the 2024 cycle". NPI's Cascadia Advocate. Retrieved May 26, 2024.
20. ^ "Here's who The Seattle Times editorial board recommends for U.S. Senate | Editorial". The Seattle Times. July 19, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
21. ^ Board, Stranger Election Control. "The Stranger's Endorsements for the August, 6, 2024 Primary Election". The Stranger. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
22. ^ staff, Source ONE News (July 17, 2024). "Colville Tribes Endorse Maria Cantwell for U.S. Senate Re-election". Source ONE News. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
23. ^ O'Sullivan, Joseph (July 7, 2023). "Raul Garcia drops WA governor bid after Dave Reichert announces run". Crosscut.com. Retrieved July 12, 2023.
24. ^ a b c d e f Villeneuve, Andrew (November 17, 2023). "Senator Maria Cantwell leads Republican challenger Raul Garcia by thirteen points". The Cascadia Advocate. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
25. ^ "Endorsements and discord: WA GOP wraps up Spokane convention". April 20, 2024. Retrieved April 23, 2024.
26. ^ https://spokanegop.com/
27. ^ "2024 Election United States Senate - Washington". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
28. ^ "2024 Washington Election Results". AP News. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
29. ^ "August 6, 2024 Primary Results - U.S. Senator". Washington Secretary of State.
30. ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
31. ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
32. ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
33. ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
34. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
35. ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
36. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.

## External links

[edit]

Official campaign websites

* Maria Cantwell (D) for Senate
* Raul Garcia (R) for Senate

* v
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(2023 <-)  2024 United States elections (-> 2025)

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*[v]: View this template
*[t]: Discuss this template
*[e]: Edit this template
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