2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

Not to be confused with 2024 Wisconsin Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

* * *

| <- 2018 | November 5, 2024 | 2030 ->

|
|

Turnout| 3,387,839
60.7%
|  |  |

|
|

Nominee  | Tammy Baldwin | Eric Hovde  |
Party  | Democratic | Republican
Popular vote  | 1,672,777 | 1,643,996
Percentage  | 49.33% | 48.48%

* * *

County results

Congressional district results

Precinct results

Baldwin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
Hovde: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
Tie: 40–50% 50%

* * *

| U.S. senator before election

Tammy Baldwin
Democratic

| Elected U.S. Senator

Tammy Baldwin
Democratic

|

Elections in Wisconsin

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Ballot measures

2006
Referendum 1
2025
Question 1

Brown County

|  County Executive elections

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Dane County

|  County Executive elections

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Madison Mayoral elections

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Kenosha

|  County Executive elections

* 2022

Mayoral elections

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Milwaukee

|  County Executive elections

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* 2024

Outagamie County

|  County Executive elections

* 1999
* 2003
* 2007
* 2011
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* 2023

Winnebago County

|  County Executive elections

* 2021
* 2025

* v
* t
* e

The 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Wisconsin. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election to a third term by a narrow 0.85% margin, defeating Republican nominee Eric Hovde.[1]

Third-party candidates Phil Anderson and Thomas Leager were seen as potential spoiler candidates for Hovde in a state that had voted for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.[2] This was the first time that Wisconsin voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Gaylord Nelson was reelected as Republican Richard Nixon carried the state in 1968. The closest of Baldwin's three Senate victories, the race held similarities to Republican Ron Johnson's narrow win in 2022, down to the percentage and raw vote margin by which the incumbents won. It was the closest Senate race in the state since 1914 and the closest election ever for this seat.

Baldwin won only about 4,000 votes more than Kamala Harris, while Hovde received about 55,000 fewer votes than Trump. This likely means that some Trump voters voted for Baldwin or a third-party candidate. While almost all of the state's counties swung Republican, Baldwin improved in Waukesha and Ozaukee.

The primary election took place on August 13, 2024.[3] The election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[4]

## Background

[edit]

No Republican has won this Senate seat since Joseph McCarthy in 1952, the longest Democratic streak of any US Senate seat in the nation. Incumbent Tammy Baldwin was first elected in 2012, defeating former governor Tommy Thompson by 6 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2018 by 11 percentage points.[5][6]

The race was considered to be slightly favorable to Baldwin, despite Wisconsin's nearly even partisan lean, with most polls showing Baldwin to be the favorite to win.

Wisconsin is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since there are both a Republican and a Democratic senator representing the state. Wisconsin was also a top battleground state in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The state backed the Republican candidate in 2016, and then the Democratic candidate in 2020, both by less than 1% and only a plurality.[citation needed]

Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the Wisconsin Legislature and hold a supermajority in Wisconsin's U.S. House delegation. Republicans also control the state's other Senate seat. However, Democrats had seen success in statewide races, including in 2022, where incumbent governor Tony Evers overperformed expectations and won reelection to a second term, despite polls showing his Republican challenger as the slight favorite.[7][8]

## Democratic primary

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Nominee

[edit]

* Tammy Baldwin, incumbent U.S. senator[9]

### Endorsements

[edit]

Tammy Baldwin

U.S. representatives

* Gabby Giffords, AZ-08 (2007–2012)[10]

Governors

* Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan (2019–present)[11]

Individuals

* Harry Dunn, former U.S. Capitol Police officer[12]
* Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)[13]

Labor unions

* Actors' Equity Association[14]
* Association of Flight Attendants[15]
* International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 2150[16]
* United Auto Workers[17]
* United Steelworkers District 7[18]
* Wisconsin AFL-CIO[16]

Organizations

* 314 Action[19]
* Bend the Arc[20]
* Council for a Livable World[21]
* EMILY's List[1]
* End Citizens United[22]
* Fair Wisconsin PAC[23]
* Feminist Majority PAC[24]
* Giffords[10]
* Human Rights Campaign[25]
* J Street PAC[26]
* Jewish Democratic Council of America[27]
* Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[28]
* League of Conservation Voters[29]
* LGBTQ Victory Fund[30]
* LPAC[31]
* NARAL Pro-Choice America[32]
* National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[33]
* National Women's Political Caucus[34]
* Natural Resources Defense Council[35]
* NextGen America PAC[13]
* People for the American Way[36]
* Planned Parenthood Action Fund[37]
* Population Connection Action Fund[38]
* Stonewall Democratic Club[39]
* Swing Left[40]

### Fundraising

[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of July 24, 2024

Candidate  | Raised  | Spent  | Cash on hand
Tammy Baldwin (D)  | $36,476,704  | $30,268,932  | $6,349,965
Source: Federal Election Commission[41]

### Results

[edit]

Democratic primary results[42] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Democratic | Tammy Baldwin (incumbent)  | 639,049  | 99.81%
| Write-in | 1,198  | 0.19%
Total votes | 640,247  | 100.0%

## Republican primary

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Nominee

[edit]

* Eric Hovde, bank executive and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012[43]

#### Eliminated in primary

[edit]

* Charles Barman, retired construction superintendent and perennial candidate[44]
* Rejani Raveendran, chair of University of Wisconsin–Stevens Point College Republicans[45]

#### Withdrew

[edit]

* Stacey Klein, Trempealeau County supervisor[46] (ran for state senate)[47]
* Patrick Schaefer-Wicke, retired U.S. Army Reserve sergeant major[46]

#### Declined

[edit]

* David Clarke, former Milwaukee County Sheriff (2002-2017)[48]
* Mike Gallagher, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 8th congressional district (2017–2024)[49]
* Scott Mayer, staffing executive and former Indy Racing League driver[50]
* Bryan Steil, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 1st congressional district (2019–present)[51] (ran for re-election, endorsed Hovde)[52][53]
* Tom Tiffany, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 7th congressional district (2020–present) (ran for re-election, endorsed Hovde)[54][53]
* Scott Walker, former governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019)[55] (endorsed Hovde)[56]

### Endorsements

[edit]

Eric Hovde

Executive branch officials

* Donald Trump, former president of the United States (2017–2021)[57]

U.S. senators

* Ron Johnson, U.S. senator from Wisconsin (2011–present)[58]

U.S. representatives

* Scott Fitzgerald, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 5th congressional district (2021–present)[53]
* Glenn Grothman, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 6th congressional district (2015–present)[53]
* Bryan Steil, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 1st congressional district (2019–present)[53]
* Tom Tiffany, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 7th congressional district (2020–present)[53]
* Derrick Van Orden, U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district (2023–present)[53]

Statewide officials

* Scott Walker, former governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019)[56]

Organizations

* Americans for Prosperity[59]
* National Republican Senatorial Committee[60]
* Republican Party of Wisconsin
* University of Wisconsin–Madison College Republicans[61]
* Wisconsin Federation of College Republicans[62]
* Wisconsin Young Republicans

### Fundraising

[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of July 24, 2024

Candidate  | Raised  | Spent  | Cash on hand
Eric Hovde (R)  | $16,788,769[a] | $13,609,814  | $3,178,955
Rejani Raveendran (R)  | $39,888[b] | $38,695  | $1,192
Stacey Klein (R)[c] | $33,712 | $33,712 | $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[63]

### Polling

[edit]

Hypothetical polling

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[d] | Margin
of error  | David
Clarke  | Mike
Gallagher  | Eric
Hovde  | Scott
Mayer  | Tom
Tiffany  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Public Policy Polling (D)[64] | December 11–12, 2023  | 503 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 52% | –  | 7%  | 6%  | –  | 36%
51% | –  | 10%  | –  | –  | 39%
52% | –  | –  | 6%  | –  | 42%
Public Policy Polling (D)[65] | June 5–6, 2023  | 507 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 40% | 20%  | 3%  | –  | 10%  | 27%
45% | 26%  | –  | –  | –  | 29%

### Results

[edit]

Republican primary results[42] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %

|
|
|

| Republican | Eric Hovde  | 477,197  | 86.21%
| Republican | Charles Barman  | 40,990  | 7.40%
| Republican | Rejani Raveendran  | 34,612  | 6.25%
| Write-in | 748  | 0.14%
Total votes | 553,547  | 100.0%

## Independent candidates

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

#### Declared

[edit]

* Phil Anderson (Disrupt The Corruption), realtor, former chair of the Wisconsin Libertarian Party, and perennial candidate[66][67]
* Thomas Leager (America First), lobbyist[68]

## General election

[edit]

### Predictions

[edit]

Source  | Ranking  | As of

|
|

The Cook Political Report[69] | Tossup  | October 8, 2024
Inside Elections[70] | Tilt D  | September 26, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[71] | Lean D  | September 25, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[72] | Lean D  | September 26, 2024
Elections Daily[73] | Lean D  | August 9, 2024
CNalysis[74] | Lean D  | November 4, 2024
RealClearPolitics[75] | Tossup  | September 15, 2024
Split Ticket[76] | Lean D  | October 23, 2024
538[77] | Lean D  | October 24, 2024

### Post-primary endorsements

[edit]

Eric Hovde (R)

U.S. senators

* Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent candidate for president in 2024[78]
* John Thune, Senate Minority Whip (2021–2025) from South Dakota (2005–present)[79]

Tammy Baldwin (D)

Executive branch officials

* Kamala Harris, vice president of the United States (2021–present)[80]

Individuals

* Cardi B, rapper[81]

Organizations

* Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation[82]

### Debates

[edit]

2024 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election debate  No. | Date  | Host  | Moderators  | Link  | Democratic | Republican

|
|
|
|
|
|

Key:
P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited  W Withdrawn |  |
Baldwin  | Hovde
1  | October 18, 2024  | WMTV | Jill Geisler  | YouTube | P | P

### Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation  | Dates
administered  | Dates
updated  | Tammy
Baldwin (D)  | Eric
Hovde (R)  | Undecided
[e] | Margin

|
|
|
|
|
|

FiveThirtyEight[83] | through November 4, 2024  | November 4, 2024  | 49.3% | 47.1%  | 3.6%  | Baldwin +2.2
Real Clear Politics[84] | October 16 – November 4, 2024  | November 4, 2024  | 48.9% | 47.1%  | 4.0%  | Baldwin +1.8
270toWin[85] | October 23 – November 4, 2024  | November 4, 2024  | 48.9% | 46.9%  | 4.2%  | Baldwin +2.0
TheHill/DDHQ[86] | through November 4, 2024  | November 4, 2024  | 48.6% | 47.9%  | 3.5%  | Baldwin +0.7
Average | 48.9% | 47.3%  | 3.8%  | Baldwin+1.6
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[d] | Margin
of error  | Tammy
Baldwin (D)  | Eric
Hovde (R)  | Other  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

AtlasIntel[87] | November 3–4, 2024  | 869 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 49% | 48%  | 1%[f] | 2%
Research Co.[88] | November 2–3, 2024  | 450 (LV)  | ± 4.6%  | 48% | 47%  | 2%[g] | 3%
Patriot Polling (R)[89] | November 1–3, 2024  | 835 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 51% | 49%  | –  | –
The Trafalgar Group (R)[90] | November 1–3, 2024  | 1,086 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 48% | 48% | –  | 4%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[91] | November 1–2, 2024  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.4%  | 47%  | 48% | 3%  | 2%
AtlasIntel[92] | November 1–2, 2024  | 728 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 49% | 48%  | 1%[f] | 2%
Emerson College[93][A] | October 30 – November 2, 2024  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.4%  | 51% | 45%  | –  | 4%
New York Times/Siena College[94] | October 25 – November 2, 2024  | 1,001 (LV)  | ± 3.4%  | 50% | 46%  | –  | 5%
1,001 (RV)  | ± 3.6%  | 50% | 46%  | –  | 4%
Mainstreet Research/FAU[95] | October 25 – November 2, 2024  | 786 (LV)  | ± 3.6%  | 47% | 45%  | 3%[h] | 4%
798 (RV)  | ± 3.5%  | 47% | 45%  | 3%[h] | 5%
Morning Consult[96] | October 23 – November 1, 2024  | 541 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 49% | 47%  | –  | 4%
AtlasIntel[97] | October 30–31, 2024  | 673 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 49% | 49% | 1%[f] | 1%
YouGov[98][B] | October 25–31, 2024  | 863 (LV)  | ± 4.5%  | 50% | 45%  | –  | 5%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[99] | October 29–31, 2024  | 800 (LV)  | –  | 48% | 47%  | –  | 5%
ActiVote[100] | October 6–31, 2024  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 54% | 46%  | –  | –
TIPP Insights (R)[101][C] | October 28–30, 2024  | 831 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 48% | 46%  | 1%  | 4%
1,038 (RV)  | ± 3.5%  | 47% | 43%  | 3%  | 7%
Marist College[102] | October 27–30, 2024  | 1,330 (LV)  | ± 3.4%  | 51% | 48%  | –  | 1%
1,444 (RV)  | ± 3.3%  | 51% | 48%  | –  | 1%
Echelon Insights[103] | October 27–30, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.5%  | 49% | 48%  | 1%[i] | 2%
SoCal Strategies (R)[104][D] | October 28–29, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 49% | 48%  | –  | 3%
AtlasIntel[105] | October 25–29, 2024  | 1,470 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 49% | 48%  | 2%[j] | 2%
CNN/SSRS[106] | October 23–28, 2024  | 736 (LV)  | ± 4.8%  | 49% | 47%  | 4%[k] | –
InsiderAdvantage (R)[107] | October 26–27, 2024  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 48%  | 49% | 1%  | 2%
Marquette University[108] | October 16–24, 2024  | 753 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 49% | 47%  | 3%[l] | 1%
48% | 45%  | –  | 7%
51%[m] | 49%  | –  | –
834 (RV)  | 50% | 46%  | 3%[l] | 1%
48% | 44%  | –  | 8%
51%[m] | 49%  | –  | –
Suffolk University[109][E] | October 20–23, 2024  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 46% | 44%  | 4%[n] | 7%
Emerson College[110][F] | October 21–22, 2024  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.4%  | 48% | 48% | 1%[o] | 3%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[111][G] | October 19–22, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 48%  | 49% | 1%[p] | 3%
Quinnipiac University[112] | October 17–21, 2024  | 1,108 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 49% | 48%  | 2%[q] | 1%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[113] | October 18–20, 2024  | 1,083 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 48%  | 49% | –  | 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[114][H] | October 16–18, 2024  | 622 (LV)  | ± 3.6%  | 45% | 44%  | 4%[r] | 8%
The Bullfinch Group[115] | October 11–18, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 49% | 45%  | –  | 7%
AtlasIntel[116] | October 12–17, 2024  | 932 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 49% | 46%  | 2%[j] | 3%
RMG Research[117][I] | October 10–16, 2024  | 787 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 49% | 46%  | 3%[s] | 2%
50%[m] | 47%  | 1%[t] | 2%
Morning Consult[96] | October 6–15, 2024  | 527 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 49% | 44%  | –  | 7%
Patriot Polling (R)[118] | October 12–14, 2024  | 803 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 50% | 49%  | –  | –
InsiderAdvantage (R)[119] | October 8–9, 2024  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 48% | 47%  | 2%  | 3%
Emerson College[120][A] | October 5–8, 2024  | 1,000 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 50% | 46%  | –  | 5%
Research Co.[121] | October 5–7, 2024  | 450 (LV)  | ± 4.6%  | 47% | 43%  | 1%[u] | 9%
Quinnipiac University[122] | October 3–7, 2024  | 1,073 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 50% | 46%  | 2%[v] | 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[123][H] | September 27 – October 2, 2024  | 533 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 47% | 42%  | 4%[r] | 7%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[124] | September 28–30, 2024  | 1,083 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 48% | 46%  | –  | 6%
ActiVote[125] | August 29 – September 29, 2024  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 54% | 46%  | –  | –
New York Times/Siena College[126] | September 21–26, 2024  | 680 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 50% | 43%  | –  | 7%
680 (RV)  | ± 4.3%  | 50% | 42%  | –  | 8%
Marquette University[127] | September 18–26, 2024  | 798 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 51% | 45%  | 2%[w] | 1%
48% | 43%  | –  | 9%
53%[m] | 46%  | –  | 1%
882 (RV)  | 51% | 45%  | 2%[w] | 1%
48% | 43%  | –  | 9%
53%[m] | 46%  | –  | 1%
AtlasIntel[128] | September 20–25, 2024  | 1,077 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 48% | 47%  | 3%[x] | 2%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[129][J] | September 19–25, 2024  | 411 (LV)  | –  | 47% | 44%  | 4%[y] | 5%
49% | 47%  | –  | 4%
RMG Research[130][I] | September 17–23, 2024  | 788 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 50% | 44%  | 2%[z] | 4%
51%[m] | 45%  | –  | 4%
Remington Research Group (R)[131][K] | September 16–20, 2024  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 49% | 47%  | –  | 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[132][H] | September 16–19, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 3.7%  | 46% | 41%  | 4%[aa] | 8%
Emerson College[133][A] | September 15–18, 2024  | 1,000 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 49% | 46%  | –  | 5%
MassINC Polling Group[134][L] | September 12–18, 2024  | 800 (LV)  | ± 3.8%  | 52% | 44%  | 1%[ab] | 2%
Morning Consult[96] | September 9–18, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 50% | 43%  | –  | 7%
Marist College[135] | September 12–17, 2024  | 1,312 (RV)  | ± 3.5%  | 52% | 46%  | –  | 1%
1,194 (LV)  | ± 3.6%  | 51% | 48%  | –  | 1%
Quinnipiac University[136] | September 12–16, 2024  | 1,075 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 51% | 47%  | 2%[v] | 1%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[137][M] | September 11–14, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 50% | 47%  | –  | 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[138][H] | September 6–9, 2024  | 626 (LV)  | ± 3.7%  | 46% | 39%  | 4%[r] | 12%
Morning Consult[96] | August 30 – September 8, 2024  | 638 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 49% | 42%  | –  | 9%
co/efficient (R)[139][N] | September 4–6, 2024  | 917 (LV)  | ± 3.2%  | 49% | 43%  | –  | 8%
CBS News/YouGov[140] | September 3–6, 2024  | 944 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 51% | 43%  | 2%[z] | 4%
Marquette University[141] | August 28 – September 5, 2024  | 822 (RV)  | ± 4.6%  | 51% | 45%  | 4%[ac] | 1%
48% | 44%  | –  | 8%
52%[m] | 48%  | –  | 1%
738 (LV)  | ± 4.7%  | 51% | 45%  | 4%[ac] | 1%
49% | 44%  | –  | 7%
52%[m] | 47%  | –  | 1%
YouGov[142][B] | August 23 – September 3, 2024  | 900 (RV)  | ± 4.1%  | 49% | 41%  | –  | 10%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[143] | August 28–30, 2024  | 1,083 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 50% | 44%  | –  | 6%
CNN/SRSS[144] | August 23–29, 2024  | 976 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 51% | 45%  | 3%[ad] | –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[145][H] | August 25–28, 2024  | 672 (LV)  | ± 3.5%  | 46% | 41%  | 3%[ae] | 11%
Emerson College[146][A] | August 25–28, 2024  | 850 (LV)  | ± 3.3%  | 49% | 48%  | –  | 3%
BK Strategies[147][O] | August 19–21, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | –  | 49% | 44%  | –  | 7%
Fabrizio Ward[148][P] | August 19–21, 2024  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 48% | 43%  | –  | 9%
TIPP Insights (R)[149][C] | August 12–14, 2024  | 1,015 (RV)  | ± 3.4%  | 50% | 42%  | –  | 8%
976 (LV)  | ± 3.4%  | 50% | 43%  | –  | 7%
The Bullfinch Group[150][Q] | August 8–11, 2024  | 500 (RV)  | ± 4.4%  | 50% | 41%  | –  | 9%
New York Times/Siena College[151] | August 5–8, 2024  | 661 (RV)  | ± 4.3%  | 51% | 43%  | –  | 6%
661 (LV)  | ± 4.3%  | 51% | 44%  | –  | 5%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[152][J] | July 26 – August 2, 2024  | 404 (LV)  | –  | 50% | 43%  | –  | 7%
Marquette University[153] | July 24 – August 1, 2024  | 877 (RV)  | ± 4.6%
47% | 39%  | –  | 14%
53%[m] | 46%  | –  | 1%
50% | 44%  | 4%[af] | 1%
801 (LV)  | ± 4.8%  | 48% | 41%  | –  | 11%
52%[m] | 47%  | –  | 1%
51% | 45%  | 4%[af] | 1%
Fox News[154] | July 22–24, 2024  | 1,046 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 54% | 43%  | –  | 3%
Emerson College[155][R] | July 22–23, 2024  | 845 (RV)  | ± 3.3%  | 49% | 43%  | –  | 8%
| July 21, 2024  | Joe Biden withdraws from the Presidential Race
YouGov[156][B] | July 4–12, 2024  | 900 (RV)  | ± 4.1%  | 50% | 43%  | 1%[ag] | 7%
831 (LV)  | –  | 50% | 44%  | 1%[ag] | 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[157][S] | July 10–11, 2024  | 548 (RV)  | –  | 51% | 43%  | –  | 6%
North Star Opinion Research[158][T] | July 6–10, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 49% | 41%  | –  | 10%
SoCal Strategies (R)[159][D] | June 30 – July 2, 2024  | 490 (RV)  | –  | 50% | 38%  | –  | 12%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[160][M] | June 28 – July 2, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 50% | 45%  | –  | 6%
Remington Research Group (R)[161][K] | June 29 – July 1, 2024  | 593 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 48% | 48% | –  | 3%
Marquette University[162] | June 12–20, 2024  | 871 (RV)  | ± 4.6%  | 45% | 38%  | –  | 17%
52%[m] | 47%  | –  | –
784 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 49% | 40%  | –  | 11%
52%[m] | 47%  | –  | –
Emerson College[163][A] | June 13–18, 2024  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 46% | 44%  | –  | 10%
Mainstreet Research/FAU[164] | May 30–31, 2024  | 338 (RV)  | ± 5.3%  | 43% | 38%  | 8%[ah] | 11%
290 (LV)  | ± 5.3%  | 47% | 39%  | 7%[ai] | 7%
KAConsulting (R)[165][U] | May 15–19, 2024  | 600 (RV)  | –  | 46% | 42%  | –  | 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[166][J] | May 6–13, 2024  | 503 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 49% | 37%  | –  | 14%
New York Times/Siena College[167] | April 28 – May 9, 2024  | 614 (RV)  | ± 4.0%  | 49% | 40%  | –  | 10%
614 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 49% | 42%  | –  | 9%
Quinnipiac University[168] | May 2–6, 2024  | 1,457 (RV)  | ± 2.6%  | 54% | 42%  | 2%[v] | 2%
Emerson College[169][A] | April 25–29, 2024  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 46% | 43%  | –  | 11%
CBS News/YouGov[170] | April 19–25, 2024  | 1,245 (LV)  | ± 3.3%  | 48% | 41%  | 3%[aj] | 8%
Marquette University[171] | April 3–10, 2024  | 814 (RV)  | ± 4.8%  | 52% | 47%  | –  | 1%
736 (LV)  | ± 5.0%  | 50% | 50% | –  | –
Emerson College[172] | March 14–18, 2024  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 45% | 42%  | –  | 14%
Emerson College[173] | February 20–24, 2024  | 1,000 (RV)  | ± 3.0%  | 46% | 39%  | –  | 15%

Hypothetical polling

Tammy Baldwin vs. Mike Gallagher

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[d] | Margin
of error  | Tammy
Baldwin (D)  | Mike
Gallagher (R)  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[174][V] | May 23–25, 2023  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 47% | 46%  | 7%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[d] | Margin
of error  | Generic
Democrat  | Generic
Republican  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[174][V] | May 23–25, 2023  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 42%  | 46% | 12%

Tammy Baldwin vs. generic opponent

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[d] | Margin
of error  | Tammy
Baldwin (D)  | Generic
Opponent  | Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[174][V] | May 23–25, 2023  | 500 (LV)  | ± 4.4%  | 40%  | 43% | 17%

### Fundraising

[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of November 25, 2024

Candidate  | Raised  | Spent  | Cash on hand
Tammy Baldwin (D)  | $59,479,375  | $59,274,659  | $346,908
Eric Hovde (R)  | $31,958,427[ak] | $31,600,367  | $358,060
Phil Anderson (DTC)  | $52,738  | $52,540  | $198
Thomas Leager (AF)  | $23,856  | $23,721  | $175
Source: Federal Election Commission[41]

### Results

[edit]

2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin[175] Party  | Candidate  | Votes  | %  | ±%

|
|
|
|

| Democratic | Tammy Baldwin (incumbent)  | 1,672,777  | 49.33%  | −6.03%
| Republican | Eric Hovde  | 1,643,996  | 48.48%  | +3.95%
| Disrupt the Corruption | Phil Anderson  | 42,315  | 1.25%  | N/A
| America First  | Thomas Leager  | 28,751  | 0.85%  | N/A
| Independent | John Schiess (write-in)  | 26  | 0.00%  | N/A
| Write-in | 2,922  | 0.09%  | -0.02%
Total votes  | 3,390,787  | 100.0%  |
| Democratic hold

Shift by county

Trend by county

Legend

* Republican — >15%

* Republican — +12.5−15%

* Republican — +10−12.5%

* Republican — +7.5−10%

* Republican — +5−7.5%

* Republican — +2.5−5%

* Republican — +0−2.5%

* Democratic — +0−2.5%

* Democratic — +2.5−5%

* Democratic — +5−7.5%

* Democratic — +7.5-10%

* Democratic — +10−12.5%

* Democratic — +12.5−15%

Democratic—+>15%

#### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

* Columbia (largest city: Portage)
* Kenosha (largest city: Kenosha)
* Lafayette (largest city: Darlington)
* Racine (largest city: Racine)
* Outagamie (largest city: Appleton)
* Brown (largest city: Green Bay)
* Crawford (largest city: Prairie du Chien)
* Dunn (largest city: Menomonie)
* Grant (largest city: Platteville)
* Pierce (largest city: River Falls)
* Richland (largest city: Richland Center)
* Trempealeau (largest city: Arcadia)
* Vernon (largest city: Viroqua)
* Winnebago (largest city: Oshkosh)

### By congressional district

[edit]

Despite losing the state, Hovde won six of eight congressional districts.[176]

District  | Baldwin  | Hovde  | Representative

|
|
|

1st | 47.5%  | 50.1% | Bryan Steil
2nd | 69.9% | 28.6%  | Mark Pocan
3rd | 46.8%  | 50.8% | Derrick Van Orden
4th | 75.6% | 22.4%  | Gwen Moore
5th | 37.9%  | 60.5% | Scott L. Fitzgerald
6th | 41.5%  | 56.2% | Glenn Grothman
7th | 39.0%  | 58.7% | Tom Tiffany
8th | 41.6%  | 56.0% | Tony Wied

## See also

[edit]

* 2024 United States presidential election
* 2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

## Notes

[edit]

1. ^ $13,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Hovde
2. ^ $10,000 of this total was self-funded by Raveendran
3. ^ Withdrew
4. ^ a b c d e Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
5. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
6. ^ a b c "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
7. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
8. ^ a b "Another candidate" with 3%
9. ^ "I Did Note Vote For This Office" with 1%
10. ^ a b "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
11. ^ "Other" with 3%; "Neither" with 1%
12. ^ a b Anderson (I) with 2%; Leager (I) with 1%
13. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l With voters who lean towards a given candidate
14. ^ Leager (I) with 2%; Anderson (I) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
15. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
16. ^ Anderson (I) with 1%
17. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
18. ^ a b c "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Leager (I) and Anderson (I) with 1% each
19. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; "Would not vote" with 1%
20. ^ "Would not vote" with 1%
21. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
22. ^ a b c "Wouldn't vote" and "Refused" with 1% each
23. ^ a b Leager (I) and Anderson (I) with 1%
24. ^ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
25. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; "Would not vote" with 2%
26. ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%
27. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates", "Other", Leager (I) and Anderson (I) with 1%
28. ^ "Prefer not to say" with 1%
29. ^ a b Leager (I) and Anderson (I) with 2%
30. ^ "Other" with 2%; "Neither" with 1%
31. ^ Leager with 1%; Anderson with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
32. ^ a b Anderson with 2%; Leager with 2%
33. ^ a b "Other" with 1%
34. ^ "Another candidate" with 8%
35. ^ "Another candidate" with 7%
36. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
37. ^ $20,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Hovde

Partisan clients

1. ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by The Hill
2. ^ a b c Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Greatness
4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by On Point Politics.
5. ^ Poll sponsored by USA Today
6. ^ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
7. ^ Poll sponsored by Senate Opportunity Fund, a super PAC that primarily supports Republican candidates in U.S. Senate races
8. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
9. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
10. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
11. ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
12. ^ Poll sponsored by Wisconsin Watch
13. ^ a b Poll sponsored by AARP
14. ^ Poll sponsored by Americans for IVF
15. ^ Poll sponsored by Platform Communications
16. ^ Poll sponsored by Pinpoint Policy Institute
17. ^ Poll sponsored by The Independent Center
18. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
19. ^ Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
20. ^ Poll sponsored by American Greatness, a conservative group
21. ^ Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
22. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Gallagher.

## References

[edit]

1. ^ a b Andrea, Lawrence (April 12, 2023). "Tammy Baldwin launches re-election bid, setting up 2024 Senate battle in Wisconsin". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
2. ^ "Democratic donors prop up far-right candidates, including a gun activist in the 2024 Wisconsin US Senate race". PBS Wisconsin. Retrieved January 23, 2025.
3. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
4. ^ "The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024". CNN. July 20, 2024.
5. ^ "Wisconsin". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 21, 2023.
6. ^ "Wisconsin | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved March 21, 2023.
7. ^ "Wisconsin 2020 presidential election results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved March 21, 2023.
8. ^ "Opinion | In Wisconsin, Tony Evers made a virtue of being dull". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved March 21, 2023.
9. ^ Wells, Dylan (April 12, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin announces reelection bid in Wisconsin". Washington Post. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
10. ^ a b "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Tammy Baldwin for Reelection to the US Senate". Giffords. September 6, 2023. Retrieved September 7, 2023.
11. ^ A. O. L. Staff (May 17, 2024). "Whitmer's Fight Like Hell PAC releases initial Senate endorsements". www.aol.com. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
12. ^ Kurtz, Josh (July 10, 2024). "Dunn's new PAC backs 10 Democratic Senate candidates, including Alsobrooks". Maryland Matters. Maryland Matters. Retrieved July 11, 2024.
13. ^ a b "NextGen PAC: Endorses Sen. Baldwin ahead of 2024 elections". Wispolitics.com. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
14. ^ "Actors' Equity Association Endorses Tammy Baldwin for United States Senate". www.actorsequity.org. Actors' Equity Association. August 7, 2024. Retrieved September 11, 2024.
15. ^ "AFA Endorsed Candidates for 2024 Election". Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. Retrieved April 29, 2024.
16. ^ a b "Wisconsin AFL-CIO Endorses Tammy Baldwin in 2024 Senate Race". Wisconsin AFL-CIO. May 26, 2023. Retrieved May 28, 2023.
17. ^ "Wisconsin". UAW Endorsements. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
18. ^ "Baldwin Campaign: United Steelworkers District 7 endorses Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate". Wis Politics. November 8, 2024. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
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20. ^ "Bend the Arc Jewish Action PAC". Bend the Arc: Jewish Action. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
21. ^ "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
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23. ^ "Fair Wisconsin Political Action Committee (PAC)". Fair Wisconsin PAC. May 22, 2023. Retrieved June 27, 2023.
24. ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
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26. ^ "Tammy Baldwin". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
27. ^ "JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
28. ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
29. ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
30. ^ Fujii, Albert (April 24, 2023). "LGBTQ+ Victory Fund Endorses Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate". LGBTQ+ Victory Fund. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
31. ^ "LPAC Announces April 2023 Endorsement Slate". LPAC. April 18, 2023. Retrieved April 24, 2023.
32. ^ Communications (July 20, 2023). "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Sen. Tammy Baldwin for Reelection to the U.S. Senate for Wisconsin". NARAL Pro-Choice America. Archived from the original on July 20, 2023. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
33. ^ Engst, Kodie (March 18, 2024). "Baldwin campaign: National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare PAC endorses Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate". WisPolitics. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
34. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved September 29, 2023.
35. ^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
36. ^ "People For Endorses Seven New and Incumbent Senate Candidates in "Defend the Senate" Campaign". People for the American Way (Press release). July 29, 2024. Retrieved July 29, 2024.
37. ^ "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Reproductive Rights Champions Baldwin, Brown, Gillibrand, Rosen, Tester for Re-Election in 2024". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved July 31, 2023.
38. ^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
39. ^ "2023 - 2024 Stonewall Endorsed Candidates". Stonewall Democratic Club. Archived from the original on October 17, 2023. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
40. ^ "Make a high-impact donation—without all the usual drama". Swing Left.
41. ^ a b "2024 Election United States Senate - Wisconsin". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
42. ^ a b "WEC Canvass - 2024 Partisan Primary" (PDF). Wisconsin Elections Commission.
43. ^ Edelman, Adam (February 20, 2024). "Republican Eric Hovde officially enters Wisconsin Senate race against Tammy Baldwin". NBC News. Retrieved February 20, 2024.
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45. ^ Bauer, Scott (August 8, 2023). "A longshot Republican is entering the US Senate race in Wisconsin against Sen. Tammy Baldwin". Town and Country Today.
46. ^ a b "Klein dropping U.S. Senate bid". WisPolitics. March 28, 2024. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
47. ^ "Klein campaign: Transitions campaign from U.S. Senate to Wisconsin state Senate District 32". Wispolitics. April 9, 2024. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
48. ^ Andrea, Lawrence. "Former sheriff David Clarke dismisses national Republicans' backing of Eric Hovde for Senate". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved July 3, 2025.
49. ^ Andrea, Lawrence (June 9, 2023). "Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher says he will not run for Senate in 2024, leaving an open GOP field". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved June 9, 2023.
50. ^ Andrea, Lawrence (March 19, 2024). "Scott Mayer won't enter Republican field to challenge Tammy Baldwin". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved March 19, 2024.
51. ^ Lieffring, Christina (May 24, 2023). "Website names purchased, big cash raised, but Steil 'not running,' Gallagher mum on running against 'popular' Baldwin". The Badger Project. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
52. ^ Glauber, Bill; Andrea, Lawrence (February 13, 2023). "Wisconsin Republicans Who Could Challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin in 2024". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
53. ^ a b c d e f g Singer, Jeff (April 2, 2024). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/2". Daily Kos. Retrieved April 2, 2024. "WI-Sen: Wealthy businessman Eric Hovde on Monday publicized endorsements from all five members of Wisconsin's GOP House delegation."
54. ^ Andrea, Lawrence (August 1, 2023). "U.S. Rep. Tiffany says he will not run for Senate in 2024". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved August 1, 2023.
55. ^ Glauber, Bill (March 20, 2023). "Scott Walker won't challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin in 2024: 'I would be bored as a senator'". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved March 20, 2023.
56. ^ a b Singer, Jeff (February 16, 2024). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/16". Daily Kos. Retrieved February 16, 2024. "WI-Sen: Former GOP Gov. Scott Walker has endorsed wealthy businessman Eric Hovde"
57. ^ Vakil, Caroline (April 2, 2024). "Trump endorses Eric Hovde in Wisconsin Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
58. ^ Staff, WHSV News (July 16, 2024). "Sen. Ron Johnson talks about US Senate candidate Hovde". WHSV-TV. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
59. ^ Action, A. F. P. (February 21, 2024). "Americans for Prosperity Action Endorses Eric Hovde for U.S. Senate". AFP Action. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
60. ^ Valentine, Jesse (February 26, 2024). "Republican Eric Hovde makes inconsistent statements about family history". American Journal News. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
61. ^ Action, F.C.R. (February 21, 2024). "University of Wisconsin-Madison College Republicans Endorse Eric Hovde for U.S. Senate". Twitter. Retrieved February 25, 2024.
62. ^ "Wisconsin Federation of College Republicans Endorsements". March 11, 2024. Retrieved March 11, 2024.
63. ^ "2024 Election United States Senate - Wisconsin". FEC.gov. Retrieved September 7, 2024.
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65. ^ "Wisconsin Republicans Prefer Clarke, Trump". Public Policy Polling. June 8, 2023.
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68. ^ Bice, Daniel (August 5, 2024). "Thomas Leager is running for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin. He claims ties to Whitmer plot". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Archived from the original on August 13, 2024. Retrieved September 1, 2024.`{{cite web}}`: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
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134. ^ Kelly, Jack (September 23, 2024). "Kamala Harris has largest post-debate lead yet over Donald Trump in new Wisconsin Watch poll". Wisconsin Watch.
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136. ^ "Swing State Poll 2024: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin: Harris Ahead In 2 Key Battleground States, 3rd State Up For Grabs, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; U.S. Senate Races: Democrats Have Leads In All 3 States". Quinnipiac University Poll. September 18, 2024.
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*[v]: View this template
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