2024 United States presidential election in Alaska

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Alaska

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| <- 2020 | November 5, 2024 | 2028 ->

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Nominee  | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
Party  | Republican | Democratic
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Running mate  | JD Vance | Tim Walz

* * *

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Joe Biden
Democratic

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Alaska is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Alaska voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Alaska has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] This is the first presidential election following the state's adoption of Measure 2, which institutes ranked-choice voting for all statewide general elections.[2]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden initially ran for re-election to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee.[3] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[4]

Ever since Alaska started voting in presidential races in 1960, the only time its electoral votes did not go to the Republican nominee was when incumbent Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in a landslide in 1964. Alaska is the only Republican-leaning state on the West Coast. In 2020, Trump only won Alaska by 10 percentage points, much less than Republicans in the past like George W. Bush's 26% victory in the state in 2004. Democrat Mary Peltola has represented Alaska at-large in the U.S. House since September 2022.

While Republicans are still heavily favored to carry the state in 2024, Alaska has shifted closer to the center since 2000 and is now considered a moderately red state.

## Primary elections

[edit]

### Republican caucus

[edit]

Main article: 2024 Alaska Republican presidential caucuses

The Alaska Republican caucuses were held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Alaska Republican primary, March 5, 2024[5] Candidate  | Votes  | Percentage  | Actual delegate count

|
|
|

Bound  | Unbound  | Total
Donald Trump | 9,243 | 87.58% | 29 |  | 29
Nikki Haley | 1,266  | 12.00%  |  |  |
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)  | 45  | 0.43%  |  |  |
Total:  | 10,554  | 100.00%  | 29  |  | 29

### Democratic caucus

[edit]

The Alaska Democratic caucus was held on April 13, 2024. Joe Biden was the only person on the ballot and won the caucus via voice vote with 15 pledged delegates.[6]

Alaska Democratic caucuses, April 13, 2024[7] Candidate  | Votes  | Percentage  | Actual delegate count

|
|
|

Bound  | Unbound  | Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)  | Voice vote | 15 |  | 15
Total:  | 15  |  | 15

## General election

[edit]

### Candidates

[edit]

The following candidates have qualified for the general election ballot as of August 27:[8]

* Kamala Harris / Tim Walz — Democratic
* Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Nicole Shanahan — Independent[a]
* Chase Oliver / Mike ter Maat — Libertarian
* Peter Sonski / Lauren Onak — American Solidarity Party
* Jill Stein / Butch Ware — Independent (national Green nominee)[b]
* Randall Terry / Stephen Broden — Constitution
* Donald Trump / JD Vance — Republican
* Cornel West / Melina Abdullah — Aurora

Voters do not have the option to write-in candidates for president and vice president. This will be the first presidential election in Alaska that uses ranked choice voting.[9]

Independent candidate Cornel West will appear on the ballot as the nominee of the Aurora Party, a party that only exists in Alaska and only has ballot access for presidential elections.[10]

### Predictions

[edit]

Source  | Ranking  | As of

|
|

The Cook Political Report[11] | Solid R  | December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[12] | Solid R  | April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | Safe R  | June 13, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[14] | Safe R  | August 26, 2024
CNalysis[15] | Very Likely R  | September 15, 2024
CNN[16] | Solid R  | January 14, 2024
The Economist[17] | Likely R  | August 23, 2024
538[18] | Likely R  | June 11, 2024
RCP[19] | Likely R  | June 26, 2024

### Polling

[edit]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[c] | Margin
of error  | Donald
Trump
Republican | Kamala
Harris
Democratic | Other /
Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

Cygnal (R)[20][A] | August 30 – September 1, 2024  | 400 (LV)  | ± 4.9%  | 53% | 43%  | 4%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[c] | Margin
of error  | Donald
Trump
Republican | Kamala
Harris
Democratic | Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent | Other /
Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Alaska Survey Research[21] | September 27–29, 2024  | 1,182 (LV)  | ± 2.9%  | 52% | 43%  | 6%  | –
Alaska Survey Research[22] | September 11–12, 2024  | 1,254 (LV)  | –  | 47% | 42%  | 5%  | 6%

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[c] | Margin
of error  | Donald
Trump
Republican | Joe
Biden
Democratic | Other /
Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

| July 21, 2024  | Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
John Zogby Strategies[23][B] | April 13–21, 2024  | 248 (LV)  | –  | 50% | 43%  | 7%
Data for Progress (D)[24] | February 23 – March 2, 2024  | 1,120 (LV)  | ± 3.0%  | 53% | 41%  | 6%
Alaska Survey Research[25] | October 13–18, 2023  | 1,375 (LV)  | –  | 45% | 37%  | 19%
Alaska Survey Research[26] | July 18–21, 2023  | 1,336 (LV)  | –  | 43% | 36%  | 21%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[c] | Margin
of error  | Donald
Trump
Republican | Joe
Biden
Democratic | Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent | Other /
Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|

| July 21, 2024  | Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Alaska Survey Research[25] | October 13–18, 2023  | 1,375 (LV)  | –  | 37% | 29%  | 17%  | 17%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[c] | Margin
of error  | Donald
Trump
Republican | Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent | Other /
Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

John Zogby Strategies[23][B] | April 13–21, 2024  | 248 (LV)  | –  | 48% | 41%  | 11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[c] | Margin
of error  | Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent | Joe
Biden
Democratic | Other /
Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

John Zogby Strategies[23][B] | April 13–21, 2024  | 248 (LV)  | –  | 50% | 37%  | 13%

### Results

[edit]

2024 United States presidential election in Alaska[27] Party  | Candidate  | First choice

|
|

Votes  | %  | Transfer
| Republican | Donald Trump
JD Vance |  |  |
| Democratic | Kamala Harris
Tim Walz |  |  |
| Libertarian  | Chase Oliver
Mike ter Maat |  |  |
| Independent | Jill Stein[b]
Butch Ware |  |  |
| American Solidarity | Peter Sonski
Lauren Onak  |  |  |
| Aurora  | Cornel West
Melina Abdullah |  |  |
| Constitution  | Randall Terry
Stephen Broden |  |  |
| Independent | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn)
Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn) |  |  |
Total votes  |  |  |
Inactive ballots |  |  |

## See also

[edit]

* United States presidential elections in Alaska
* 2024 United States presidential election
* 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
* 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
* 2024 United States elections

## Notes

[edit]

1. ^ Kennedy suspended his campaign on August 23, after the deadline for independent candidates had passed, and thus remains on the ballot.
2. ^ a b The national Green Party nominated Stein and Ware for their presidential ticket. The Green Party of Alaska, a separate entity which was decertified from the national Green Party in 2021, nominated Jasmine Sherman with Tanda BluBear as her running mate. Stein qualified for the ballot by petition and was listed without party affiliation, while Sherman did not make the ballot.
3. ^ a b c d e f Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

Partisan clients

1. ^ Poll sponsored by Nick Begich's campaign for U.S. House and the National Republican Congressional Committee
2. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

## References

[edit]

1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
2. ^ Brooks, James (June 20, 2024). "Want to run for president in Alaska? You'll need a few thousand friends". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
3. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved July 22, 2023.
4. ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
5. ^ Ruskin, Liz (March 4, 2024). "Trump or Haley? Alaska Republicans vote Tuesday". Alaska Public Radio. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
6. ^ Bohrer, Becky; Gruver, Mead (April 13, 2024). "Biden wins more delegates in Wyoming and Alaska as he heads toward Democratic nomination". Associated Press. Retrieved April 28, 2024.
7. ^ "Alaska Democratic Primary Election Results". Ballotpedia. April 13, 2024. Retrieved March 21, 2024.
8. ^ "Candidates". Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved August 27, 2024.
9. ^ Brooks, James (September 17, 2024). "Alaska's presidential election allows voters to rank up to eight candidates". Alaska Beacon. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
10. ^ Downing, Suzanne (December 14, 2023). "Cornel West, independent candidate, says he will be on Alaska ballot for president in 2024". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved December 16, 2023.
11. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
12. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
13. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
14. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
15. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
16. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
17. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
18. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
19. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
20. ^ Downs, James (September 5, 2024). "As Weather Cools, Alaska Race Heats Up - Republican poll shows close race in the Last Frontier". National Journal.
21. ^ "Alaska Survey Research - September 27-29, 2024". X. September 30, 2024.
22. ^ "2024 Presidential Poll Results - Alaska". X. September 13, 2024.
23. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
24. ^ "Rep. Peltola Is the Most Popular Politician in Alaska. She Still Faces a Tight Race". Data for Progress. March 14, 2024.
25. ^ a b "RELEASE: ALASKA 2024 PRESIDENT" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight. October 23, 2023.
26. ^ Moore, Ivan (August 14, 2023). "RELEASE: ALASKA POLL RESULTS". X.
27. ^ "State of Alaska Official Ballot" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved September 27, 2024.

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* v
* t
* e

State and district results of the 2024 United States presidential election

* Alabama
* Alaska
* Arizona
* Arkansas
* California
* Colorado
* Connecticut
* Delaware
* District of Columbia
* Florida
* Georgia
* Hawaii
* Idaho
* Illinois
* Indiana
* Iowa
* Kansas
* Kentucky
* Louisiana
* Maine
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* Massachusetts
* Michigan
* Minnesota
* Mississippi
* Missouri
* Montana
* Nebraska
* Nevada
* New Hampshire
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* New Mexico
* New York
* North Carolina
* North Dakota
* Ohio
* Oklahoma
* Oregon
* Pennsylvania
* Rhode Island
* South Carolina
* South Dakota
* Tennessee
* Texas
* Utah
* Vermont
* Virginia
* Washington
* West Virginia
* Wisconsin
* Wyoming
* Guam (straw poll)
* Puerto Rico (straw poll)

*[v]: View this template
*[t]: Discuss this template
*[e]: Edit this template
*[VA]: Virginia
*[AK]: Alaska
*[TX]: Texas
*[CA]: California
*[MD]: Maryland
*[LA]: Louisiana
*[CT]: Connecticut
*[VT]: Vermont
*[AR]: Arkansas
*[FL]: Florida
*[MI]: Michigan
*[HI]: Hawaii
*[WV]: West Virginia
*[AL]: Alabama
*[NV]: Nevada
*[AZ]: Arizona
*[WI]: Wisconsin
*[OR]: Oregon
*[CO]: Colorado
*[NC]: North Carolina
*[UT]: Utah
*[OK]: Oklahoma
*[DE]: Delaware
*[IL]: Illinois