2024 United States presidential election in Iowa

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Iowa

* * *

| <- 2020 | November 5, 2024 | 2028 ->

|
|

|  |  |

|
|

Nominee  | Donald Trump | TBD |
Party  | Republican | Democratic
Home state  | Florida |
Running mate  | J.D. Vance | TBD

* * *

| Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic

|

Elections in Iowa

Federal government

|  U.S. Presidential elections

* 1848
* 1852
* 1856
* 1860
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Presidential caucuses

Democratic
1976
1980
1984
1992
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024

Republican
1980
1996
2000
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate elections

* 1848
* 1849
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* 1855
* 1857 sp
* 1858
* 1860
* 1864
* 1866
* 1866 sp
* 1870
* 1870 sp
* 1872
* 1878
* 1882
* 1882 sp
* 1884
* 1888
* 1890
* 1894
* 1896
* 1900
* 1902
* 1902 sp
* 1907
* 1908
* 1908 sp
* 1909
* 1911 sp
* 1913
* 1914
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* 1926 sp
* 1930
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* 1938
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U.S. House of Representatives elections

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* 1st sp
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* 2nd sp
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* 5th sp
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* 6th sp
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* 1886
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* 1892
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* 10th sp
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* 1930
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* 6th sp
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* 1944
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* 1959
* 4th sp
* 1960
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State government

|  General elections

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Gubernatorial elections

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Secretary of State elections

* 2022

Attorney General elections

* 2018
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Senate elections

* 1846
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* 1942
* 1944
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* 1948
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* 1954
* 1956
* 1958
* 1960
* 1962
* 1964
* 1966
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* Specials

House of Representatives elections

* 2006
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Territorial Council elections

* 1838
* 1839
* 1840
* 1841
* 1842
* 1843
* 1844
* 1845

Ballot measures

2020
Question 1

2022
Amendment 1

Cedar Rapids

|  Mayoral elections

* 2021

Des Moines

|  Mayoral elections

* 1997 sp
* 1999
* 2003
* 2007
* 2011
* 2015
* 2019
* 2023

* v
* t
* e

The 2024 United States presidential election in Iowa is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Iowa voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

An Upper Midwestern state, although Iowa was considered both a swing and a bellwether state for decades, it voted significantly more Republican than the nation-at-large in both 2016 and 2020 and is now considered a moderately red state at the federal and state levels. As a result, it is not expected to be seriously contested by the Democrats in 2024 as Republican Donald Trump won the state by a somewhat comfortable margin while losing nationally in the latter election, despite polls indicating a close race.

Furthermore, during the 2022 midterms, all three statewide incumbent Republicans (governor, secretary of agriculture, and secretary of state) won reelection by more than 18%, two of three statewide incumbent Democrats (28-year incumbent attorney general and 40-year incumbent treasurer) lost to Republican challengers, and the remaining incumbent Democrat (4-year incumbent auditor) won by less than 3,000 votes and 0.23%. Republicans also won all four of Iowa's U.S. House seats.[2][3] As such, Iowa is widely predicted to remain red in 2024.[4]

In April 2023, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden officially announced a re-election campaign for 2024.[5]

Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in April.[6]

## Caucuses

[edit]

### Democratic caucuses

[edit]

Main article: 2024 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses

During the Iowa Democratic caucuses, in-person caucusing focusing only on party business was held on January 15, but voting on candidates will be done exclusively via mail-in ballots from January 12 until Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. This was the result of a compromise between the Iowa Democratic Party and the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Iowa traditionally holds its race first during the presidential primary and caucuses season, but the DNC originally wanted South Carolina to instead hold its race first on February 3.[7]

Iowa Democratic caucus, January 12–March 5, 2024[8] Candidate  | Votes  | Percentage  | Actual delegate count

|
|
|

Pledged  | Unpledged  | Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)  | 12,337 | 90.37% | 40 |  | 40
Uncommitted | 614  | 4.50%  | 0  |  | 0
Dean Phillips | 394  | 2.89%  | 0  |  | 0
Marianne Williamson[a] | 307  | 2.25%  | 0  |  | 0
Total:  | 13,652  | 100.00%  | 40  | 6  | 46

### Republican caucuses

[edit]

Main article: 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses

The Iowa Republican caucuses were held on January 15, 2024, the first-in-the-nation nomination contest of the 2024 Republican primaries. Former president Donald Trump won the primary with the largest margin of victory for a non-incumbent in the Iowa caucuses. Trump's overwhelming victory in the state established his position early as the frontrunner.

Popular vote share by county

Trump

* 30–40%

* 40–50%

* 50–60%

* 60–70%

* 70–80%

Haley

* 30–40%

Iowa Republican precinct caucuses, January 15, 2024[9] Candidate  | Votes  | Percentage  | Actual delegate count

|
|
|

Bound  | Unbound  | Total
Donald Trump | 56,243 | 51.00% | 20 | 0 | 20
Ron DeSantis | 23,491  | 21.30%  | 9  | 0  | 9
Nikki Haley | 21,027  | 19.07%  | 8  | 0  | 8
Vivek Ramaswamy | 8,430  | 7.64%  | 3  | 0  | 3
Ryan Binkley | 768  | 0.70%  | 0  | 0  | 0
Asa Hutchinson | 188  | 0.17%  | 0  | 0  | 0
Other  | 90  | 0.08%  | 0  | 0  | 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)  | 35  | 0.03%  | 0  | 0  | 0
Total:  | 110,272  | 100.00%  | 40  | 0  | 40

### Libertarian caucuses

[edit]

Main article: 2024 Iowa Libertarian presidential caucuses

2024 Iowa Libertarian presidential caucuses

* * *

| <- 2020 | January 15, 2024 | 2028 ->

|
|

MA ->

|  |  |

|
|

Candidate  | Chase Oliver | Michael Rectenwald
Home state  | Georgia | Pennsylvania
Percentage  | 42.7% | 16.9%

* * *

|  |
Candidate  | Mike ter Maat  | Joshua Smith
Home state  | Florida | Iowa
Percentage  | 13.5%  | 13.5%

The Iowa Libertarian caucuses were held on January 15, 2024, its first as a recognized party in the state.[10] 2022 U.S. Senate candidate Chase Oliver from Georgia won the non-binding preferential vote with 42.7% of the vote.[11]

2024 Iowa Libertarian presidential caucuses[12] Candidate  | Votes  | Percentage

|
|

Chase Oliver | 38 | 42.70
Michael Rectenwald | 15  | 16.85
Mike ter Maat | 12  | 13.48
Joshua Smith | 12  | 13.48
Vivek Ramaswamy | 4  | 4.49
Mario Perales | 2  | 2.25
Robert Sansone | 2  | 2.25
Jacob Hornberger | 1  | 1.12
Lars Mapstead | 1  | 1.12
Art Olivier | 1  | 1.12
None of the above  | 1  | 1.12
Total  | 89  | 100.00

## General election

[edit]

### Predictions

[edit]

Source  | Ranking  | As of

|
|

The Cook Political Report[13] | Solid R  | December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[14] | Likely R  | April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Safe R  | June 13, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[16] | Likely R  | December 14, 2023
CNalysis[17] | Solid R  | December 30, 2023
CNN[18] | Solid R  | January 14, 2024
The Economist[19] | Safe R  | July 14, 2024
538[20] | Likely R  | June 11, 2024
RCP[21] | Likely R  | June 26, 2024

### Polling

[edit]

Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Donald
Trump
Republican | Joe
Biden
Democratic | Other /
Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

Cygnal (R)[A] | July 8–9, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 51% | 39%  | 10%
Selzer & Co.[B] | February 25–28, 2024  | 640 (LV)  | ± 3.9%  | 48% | 33%  | 19%[c]
Cygnal (R)[A] | February 13–14, 2024  | 600 (LV)  | ± 3.9%  | 49% | 40%  | 11%
John Zogby Strategies | January 2–4, 2024  | 500 (LV)  | –  | 51% | 39%  | 10%
Emerson College | December 15–17, 2023  | 1,094 (RV)  | ± 2.9%  | 48% | 40%  | 12%
Emerson College | May 19–22, 2023  | 1,064 (RV)  | ± 2.9%  | 49% | 38%  | 13%
Emerson College | October 2–4, 2022  | 959 (LV)  | ± 3.1%  | 47% | 39%  | 14%
Cygnal (R)[A] | October 2–4, 2022  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 51% | 41%  | 8%
Cygnal (R)[A] | July 13–14, 2022  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 51% | 40%  | 9%
Cygnal (R)[d][A] | February 20–22, 2022  | 610 (LV)  | ± 3.9%  | 53% | 38%  | 9%
Selzer & Co. | November 7–10, 2021  | 658 (LV)  | ± 3.8%  | 51% | 40%  | 9%
Cygnal (R)[A] | October 18–19, 2021  | 600 (LV)  | ± 4.0%  | 54% | 41%  | 5%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Donald
Trump
Republican | Joe
Biden
Democratic | Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent | Chase
Oliver
Libertarian | Other /
Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

Selzer & Co.[B] | June 9–14, 2024  | 632 (LV)  | ± 3.9%  | 50% | 32%  | 9%  | 2%  | 7%[e]

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
Poll source  | Date(s)
administered  | Sample
size[b] | Margin
of error  | Ron
DeSantis
Republican | Joe
Biden
Democratic | Other /
Undecided

|
|
|
|
|
|

Emerson College | May 19–22, 2023  | 1,064 (RV)  | ± 2.9%  | 45% | 38%  | 17%

## See also

[edit]

* United States presidential elections in Iowa
* 2024 United States presidential election
* 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
* 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
* 2024 United States elections

## Notes

[edit]

1. ^ While voting was ongoing, Williamson suspended and then unsuspended her campaign.
2. ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
3. ^ "Someone else" with 15%
4. ^ Archived February 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
5. ^ "Someone else" with 3%, "would not vote" with 1%

Partisan clients

1. ^ a b c d e f This poll was sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation
2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Des Moines Register & Mediacom Iowa

## References

[edit]

1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. ^ "Iowa Election Results and Maps 2022 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
3. ^ Murray, Isabella. "The congressional race that could indicate just how red Iowa has shifted". ABC News. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
4. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
5. ^ "Biden announces he is running for re-election, framing 2024 as a choice between 'more rights or fewer'". NBC News. April 25, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
6. ^ McCullough, Caleb (April 13, 2024). "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. makes pitch for president in Iowa". The Gazette. Retrieved April 15, 2024.
7. ^ "DNC's new calendar, will release caucus results on Super Tuesday". Iowa Public Radio. October 6, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
8. ^ "Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus Results". Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
9. ^ "Iowa Republican Presidential Nominating Process". The Green Papers.
10. ^ "Libertarian Party of Iowa announces it will hold caucuses Jan. 15".
11. ^ Bunge, Mike (January 16, 2024). "Libertarian Party of Iowa announces the winner of its statewide Presidential caucus". KIMT 3. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
12. ^ Bunge, Mike (January 16, 2024). "Libertarian Party of Iowa announces the winner of its statewide Presidential caucus". KIMT. Allen Media Broadcasting. Archived from the original on January 16, 2024. Retrieved January 16, 2024.
13. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
14. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
15. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
16. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
17. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
18. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
19. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved July 15, 2024.
20. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
21. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.

* v
* t
* e

(2023 <-)  2024 United States elections (-> 2025)

U.S.
President|

* Alabama
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U.S.
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U.S.
House
(election
ratings)|

* Alabama
* Alaska
* American Samoa
* Arizona
* Arkansas
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* 16th
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* Puerto Rico
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* South Dakota
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* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Washington
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* 8th sp
* Wyoming

Governors|

* American Samoa
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* Lt. Gov
* Indiana
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* Lt. Gov
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* New Hampshire
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* Lt. Gov
* North Dakota
* Puerto Rico
* Utah
* Vermont
* Lt. Gov
* Washington
* Lt. Gov
* West Virginia

Attorneys
general|

* Indiana
* Missouri
* Montana
* North Carolina
* Oregon
* Pennsylvania
* Utah
* Vermont
* Washington
* West Virginia

Secretaries
of state|

* Missouri
* Montana
* North Carolina
* Oregon
* Vermont
* Washington
* West Virginia

State
treasurers|

* Arkansas (special)
* Missouri
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Other
statewide
elections|

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State
legislative|

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* House
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* Senate
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* House
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* House
* Senate
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* House
* Senate
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* House
* Senate
* Texas
* House
* Senate
* Utah
* House
* Senate
* Vermont
* House
* Senate
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* House
* Senate
* West Virginia
* House
* Senate
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* Senate
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* Special elections

Mayors|

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Local|

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* City Auditor
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* Washington, D.C.

States and
territories|

* Alabama
* Alaska
* American Samoa
* Arizona
* Arkansas
* California
* Colorado
* Connecticut
* Delaware
* Florida
* Georgia
* Guam
* Hawaii
* Idaho
* Illinois
* Indiana
* Iowa
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* Louisiana
* Maine
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* Massachusetts
* Michigan
* Minnesota
* Mississippi
* Missouri
* Montana
* Nebraska
* Nevada
* New Hampshire
* New Jersey
* New Mexico
* New York
* North Carolina
* North Dakota
* Northern Mariana Islands
* Ohio
* Oklahoma
* Oregon
* Pennsylvania
* Puerto Rico
* Rhode Island
* South Carolina
* South Dakota
* Tennessee
* Texas
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Utah
* Vermont
* Virginia
* Washington
* Washington, D.C.
* West Virginia
* Wisconsin
* Wyoming

Ballot
measures|

* California
* Proposition 1
* Florida
* Amendment 3
* Amendment 4
* Idaho
* open primary initiative
* Kentucky
* Amendment 2
* Maryland
* abortion referendum
* South Dakota
* Amendment G
* Amendment H

* v
* t
* e

State and district results of the 2024 United States presidential election

* Alabama
* Alaska
* Arizona
* Arkansas
* California
* Colorado
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*[v]: View this template
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*[VA]: Virginia
*[AK]: Alaska
*[TX]: Texas
*[CA]: California
*[MD]: Maryland
*[LA]: Louisiana
*[CT]: Connecticut
*[VT]: Vermont
*[MI]: Michigan
*[HI]: Hawaii
*[NV]: Nevada
*[AZ]: Arizona
*[FL]: Florida
*[WI]: Wisconsin
*[OR]: Oregon
*[CO]: Colorado
*[NC]: North Carolina
*[UT]: Utah
*[OK]: Oklahoma
*[DE]: Delaware
*[IL]: Illinois