2027 New South Wales state election

* * *

| ← 2023 | 13 March 2027[1] | 2031 →

|
|

* * *

All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council
47 Assembly seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
|   |

|
|
|

Leader  | Chris Minns | Mark Speakman | No leader
Party  | Labor | Liberal/National coalition | Greens
Leader since  | 4 June 2021 | 21 April 2023 | N/A
Leader's seat  | Kogarah | Cronulla | N/A
Last election  | 45 seats, 36.97%  | 36 seats, 35.37%  | 3 seats, 9.70%
Current seats  | 45  | 35  | 3
Seats needed  |  2  |  12  |  44

* * *

| Incumbent Premier

Chris Minns
Labor

|

The 2027 New South Wales state election will be held on 13 March 2027 to elect the 59th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the NSW Electoral Commission (NSWEC)

The incumbent Labor minority government, led by Premier Chris Minns, will seek to win a second four-year term in office. They will be challenged by the Liberal/National coalition, led by opposition leader Mark Speakman. The Greens, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, other minor parties and several independents will also contest the election.

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential, instant runoff voting in single-member seats for the lower house, and single transferable voting with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.

## Background

[edit]

At the previous state election held in 2023, the Australian Labor Party (ALP), led by Chris Minns, won the election after spending 12 years in Opposition. The election saw Labor win 45 seats to the Coalition's 36 seats on election day, allowing Labor to form an initial minority government. The Greens retained their three seats, while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers lost all three of their seats as a result of their MPs resigning from the party to become independents.

In the Legislative Council (the Upper House), 21 of the 42 seats were up for election. Both the Coalition and Labor won 15 seats each, however after the election of Ben Franklin as President of the Legislative Council, the Coalition's effective vote on the floor on the council was reduced to 14.[2] The Greens won 4 seats in the Legislative Council. One Nation won 3 seats, which is its largest representation in New South Wales and currently its largest in any Australian parliament (including the federal Parliament). Meanwhile, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party retained its two seats, the Animal Justice Party lost one of its two seats and two parties (the Legalise Cannabis Party and the Liberal Democrats) won their first ever seats in the New South Wales Parliament.

Since the 2023 state election, there have been five by-elections: in Northern Tablelands, Pittwater, Epping, Hornsby and Port Macquarie.

## Date

[edit]

The parliament has fixed four-year terms with the election held on the fourth Saturday in March,[3] though the Governor may dissolve the house sooner on the advice of the Premier. Additionally, Section 24B, Paragraph 4 of the Constitution Act 1902 states that “The Legislative Assembly may be dissolved within 2 months before the Assembly is due to expire if the general election would otherwise be required to be held during the same period as a Commonwealth election, during a holiday period or at any other inconvenient time.” [4] Since 27 March 2027 is Holy Saturday, it is highly unlikely that an election will be held on this day, given the number of citizens of New South Wales who travel or are otherwise occupied during the Easter long weekend. Two months before this date is 27 January 2027; however, since all Australian elections must by law take place on a Saturday, the earliest possible date for the 2027 New South Wales state election (other than by early dissolution) is Saturday 30 January 2027. As of 18 February 2025, the NSW government's media statement was published advising that due to the Easter Holidays on 27 March 2027, it is being brought forward by two weeks early, 13 March 2027. The 2027 Election is the first time that the election has fallen on the Easter weekend since four-year term parliaments were approved by NSW electors at a referendum in 1995.[1]

## Pre-election pendulum

[edit]

Extended content

| Labor seats (45)

Seat  | Member  | Party  | Margin
Marginal
Penrith | Karen McKeown | ALP  | 1.6%
East Hills | Kylie Wilkinson | ALP  | 1.8%
Monaro | Steve Whan | ALP  | 2.4% v NAT
Camden | Sally Quinnell | ALP  | 2.9%
South Coast | Liza Butler | ALP  | 3.7%
Riverstone | Warren Kirby | ALP  | 3.7%
Fairly safe
The Entrance | David Mehan | ALP  | 7.8%
Liverpool | Charishma Kaliyanda | ALP  | 8.4%
Parramatta | Donna Davis | ALP  | 8.5%
Leppington | Nathan Hagarty | ALP  | 8.7%
Prospect | Hugh McDermott | ALP  | 8.8%
Heathcote | Maryanne Stuart | ALP  | 9.9%
Safe
Bega | Michael Holland | ALP  | 10.4%
Cabramatta | Tri Vo | ALP  | 11.8%
Coogee | Marjorie O'Neill | ALP  | 12.2%
Strathfield | Jason Yat-Sen Li | ALP  | 13.1%
Londonderry | Prue Car | ALP  | 13.6%
Lismore | Janelle Saffin | ALP  | 15.0% v NAT
Rockdale | Steve Kamper | ALP  | 15.4%
Swansea | Yasmin Catley | ALP  | 15.4%
Gosford | Liesl Tesch | ALP  | 15.4%
Shellharbour | Anna Watson | ALP  | 17.1% v IND
Summer Hill | Jo Haylen | ALP  | 16.8% v GRN
Very safe
Kogarah | Chris Minns | ALP  | 18.3%
Maroubra | Michael Daley | ALP  | 18.6%
Maitland | Jenny Aitchison | ALP  | 18.6%
Port Stephens | Kate Washington | ALP  | 19.0%
Wyong | David Harris | ALP  | 19.2%
Macquarie Fields | Anoulack Chanthivong | ALP  | 19.9%
Blacktown | Stephen Bali | ALP  | 20.1%
Bankstown | Jihad Dib | ALP  | 20.3%
Charlestown | Jodie Harrison | ALP  | 21.1%
Fairfield | David Saliba | ALP  | 21.1%
Granville | Julia Finn | ALP  | 21.5%
Blue Mountains | Trish Doyle | ALP  | 21.9%
Mount Druitt | Edmond Atalla | ALP  | 22.3%
Newcastle | Tim Crakanthorp | ALP  | 22.6%
Heffron | Ron Hoenig | ALP  | 23.2%
Campbelltown | Greg Warren | ALP  | 23.3%
Cessnock | Clayton Barr | ALP  | 23.4% v ONP
Auburn | Lynda Voltz | ALP  | 24%
Keira | Ryan Park | ALP  | 24.3%
Wollongong | Paul Scully | ALP  | 24.3%
Canterbury | Sophie Cotsis | ALP  | 25.7%
Wallsend | Sonia Hornery | ALP  | 31.8%
Liberal/National seats (36)

Seat  | Member  | Party  | Margin
Marginal
Ryde | Jordan Lane | LIB  | 0.1%[a]
Holsworthy | Tina Ayyad | LIB  | 0.4%
Pittwater | Jacqui Scruby | IND  | 0.7% LIB v IND[b]
Oatley | Mark Coure | LIB  | 0.8%
Terrigal | Adam Crouch | LIB  | 1.2%
Goulburn | Wendy Tuckerman | LIB  | 1.3%
Drummoyne | Stephanie Di Pasqua | LIB  | 1.3%
Winston Hills | Mark Taylor | LIB  | 1.8%
Miranda | Eleni Petinos | LIB  | 2.3%
Willoughby | Tim James | LIB  | 2.6% v IND
Tweed | Geoff Provest | NAT  | 3.6%
Upper Hunter | Dave Layzell | NAT  | 3.8%
Manly | James Griffin | LIB  | 4.8% v IND
Epping | Monica Tudehope | LIB  | 4.8%[c]
Lane Cove | Anthony Roberts | LIB  | 5.5%
North Shore | Felicity Wilson | LIB  | 5.6% v IND
Fairly safe
Hornsby | James Wallace | LIB  | 8.0%[d]
Hawkesbury | Robyn Preston | LIB  | 9.9%
Safe
Wahroonga | Alister Henskens | LIB  | 10.5%
Badgerys Creek | Tanya Davies | LIB  | 10.5%
Castle Hill | Mark Hodges | LIB  | 10.9%
Kellyville | Ray Williams | LIB  | 10.9%
Oxley | Michael Kemp | NAT  | 12.8%
Vaucluse | Kellie Sloane | LIB  | 12.8% v IND
Coffs Harbour | Gurmesh Singh | NAT  | 13.2%
Davidson | Matt Cross | LIB  | 14.0%
Cronulla | Mark Speakman | LIB  | 14.0%
Clarence | Richie Williamson | NAT  | 14.5%
Tamworth | Kevin Anderson | NAT  | 15.8% v IND
Myall Lakes | Tanya Thompson | NAT  | 15.9%
Albury | Justin Clancy | LIB  | 16.3%
Port Macquarie | Leslie Williams | LIB  | 16.7%[e]
Very safe
Dubbo | Dugald Saunders | NAT  | 18.7%
Bathurst | Paul Toole | NAT  | 23.6%
Cootamundra | Steph Cooke | NAT  | 32.3%
Northern Tablelands | Brendan Moylan | NAT  | 33.8%[f]
Crossbench seats (12)

Seat  | Member  | Party  | Margin
Marginal
Wollondilly | Judy Hannan | IND  | 1.8% v LIB
Kiama | Gareth Ward | IND  | 1.8% v ALP
Balmain | Kobi Shetty | GRN  | 1.8% v ALP
Wakehurst | Michael Regan | IND  | 4.4% v LIB
Fairly safe
Ballina | Tamara Smith | GRN  | 7.7% v NAT
Safe
Newtown | Jenny Leong | GRN  | 12.1% v ALP
Sydney | Alex Greenwich | IND  | 15.8% v ALP
Murray | Helen Dalton | IND  | 16.0% v NAT
Barwon | Roy Butler | IND  | 16% v NAT
Very safe
Orange | Philip Donato | IND  | 22.0% v NAT
Wagga Wagga | Joe McGirr | IND  | 22.2% v NAT
Lake Macquarie | Greg Piper | IND  | 24.3% v ALP

## Registered parties

[edit]

Main article: List of political parties in Australia

Fourteen parties are registered with the NSW Electoral Commission (NSWEC).[5] Bold text indicates parliamentary parties.

* Animal Justice
* Greens
* HEART Party
* Labor
* Legalise Cannabis
* Liberals
* Libertarians (formerly Liberal Democrats)

* New South Nationals
* One Nation
* Public Education Party
* Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party
* Small Business
* Socialist Alliance
* Sustainable Australia

|

## Opinion polling

[edit]

Primary vote opinion polling for the New South Wales 2027 election with a local regression (LOESS) trendline for each party. [Graph to be reviewed]  Two-party-preferred opinion polling for the New South Wales 2027 election with a local regression (LOESS) trendline for each party.

### Voting intention

[edit]

Date  | Firm  | Sample
size  | Margin
of error  | Primary vote  | TPP vote

|
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|
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ALP | L/NP | GRN | ONP | OTH | ALP | L/NP
13–18 Jul 2025  | Resolve[6][7][g] | 1,054  |  | 38%  | 32%  | 13%  | —  | 18%  | 57% | 43%
Mar–22 Apr 2025  | Resolve[8][9][h] | 1,123  |  | 33%  | 36%  | 11%  | —  | 20%  | 51% | 49%
24–26 Mar 2025  | DemosAU[10][11] | 1,013  | 4.0%  | 33%  | 34%  | 14%  | —  | 19%  | 54% | 46%
18–23 Feb 2025  | Resolve[12][13][g] |  |  | 29%  | 38%  | 14%  | —  | 19%  | 49%  | 51%
6–20 Nov 2024  | Redbridge[14][15] | 1,088  | 3.4%  | 37%  | 41%  | 9%  | —  | 13%  | 50.5% | 49.5%
Sep–Oct 2024  | Resolve[16][17][g] | 1,111  |  | 32%  | 37%  | 11%  | —  | 20%  | 50%  | 50%
6–29 Aug 2024  | Wolf & Smith[18][19] | 2,047  | 2.2%  | 32%  | 38%  | 12%  | —  | 18%  | 50%  | 50%
11 Aug 2024  | Resolve[20][21][h] | 1,000  |  | 30%  | 38%  | 12%  | —  | 20%  | 49%  | 51%
16 Jun 2024  | Resolve[22][23][h] | 1,000  |  | 32%  | 35%  | 11%  | —  | 22%  | 52% | 48%
Feb–May 2024  | Redbridge[24] | 1,376  |  | 35%  | 40%  | 11%  | —  | 14%  | 50.5% | 49.5%
21 Mar–21 Apr 2024  | Resolve[25][i] | 1,000  |  | 33%  | 36%  | 12%  | —  | 19%  | 52% | 48%
25 Feb 2024  | Resolve[26][27][h] | 1,035  |  | 34%  | 38%  | 12%  | —  | 17%  | 51.5% | 48.5%
11 Nov 2023  | Resolve[28][29][h] | 1,100  |  | 36%  | 32%  | 13%  | —  | 19%  | 57% | 43%
10 Sep 2023  | Resolve[30][31][h] | 1,019  |  | 38%  | 36%  | 9%  | —  | 17%  | 54% | 46%
16 Jul 2023  | Resolve[32][33][h] | 1,012  |  | 41%  | 32%  | 10%  | —  | 16%  | 58% | 42%
14 May 2023  | Resolve[34][35][h] | 1,102  |  | 44%  | 31%  | 9%  | —  | 15%  | 60% | 40%
25 Mar 2023  | 2023 election | 37.0%  | 35.4%  | 9.7%  | 1.8%  | 16.2%  | 54.3% | 45.7%

### Preferred Premier

[edit]

Date  | Firm  | Better Premier

|
|

Minns | Speakman | Don't know  | Net
13–18 Jul 2025  | Resolve[6] | 35% | 16%  | 49%  | +19%
Mar–22 Apr 2025  | Resolve[8] | 40% | 15%  | 45%  | +25%
24–26 Mar 2025  | DemosAU[10] | 42% | 24%  | 34%  | +18%
23 Feb 2025  | Resolve[12] | 35% | 14%  | 51%  | +21%
6 Oct 2024  | Resolve[16] | 37% | 14%  | 49%  | +23%
11 Aug 2024  | Resolve[20] | 38% | 13%  | 49%  | +25%
16 Jun 2024  | Resolve[22] | 38% | 13%  | 49%  | +25%
21 Apr 2024  | Resolve[25] | 37% | 16%  | 47%  | +21%
25 Feb 2024  | Resolve[26] | 35% | 16%  | 51%  | +19%
5 Nov 2023  | Resolve[28] | 35% | 13%  | 52%  | +22%
10 Sep 2023  | Resolve[30] | 41% | 14%  | 45%  | +27%
16 Jul 2023  | Resolve[32] | 39% | 12%  | 49%  | +27%
14 May 2023  | Resolve[34] | 42% | 12%  | 46%  | +30%

### Leader Satisfaction

[edit]

Date  | Firm  | Minns  | Speakman

|
|
|

Satisfied  | Dissatisfied  | Don't know  | net  | Satisfied  | Dissatisfied  | Don't know  | Net
Feb–May 2024  | Redbridge[24] | 40% | 20%  | 40%  | +20% | 19%  | 21%  | 60%  | -2%

## See also

[edit]

* Members of the New South Wales Legislative Council, 2023–2027

## Notes

[edit]

1. ^ Jordan Lane won the seat by just 54 votes in the two-party-preferred contest against Labor candidate Lyndal Howison. Labor saw an 8.9% swing towards them on two-party-preferences, which was the exact margin that the Liberals won Ryde with in 2019 with Victor Dominello.
2. ^ This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Pittwater state by-election, which Labor did not contest, for consistency.
3. ^ This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Epping state by-election, which Labor did not contest, for consistency.
4. ^ This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Hornsby state by-election, for consistency.
5. ^ The margin shown is the Liberal vs Labor margin. At this election, two Coalition candidates contested the seat of Port Macquarie, both of which made the two-party-preferred contest. The Liberal vs National margin is 10.8%. It is very rare for the Coalition to run two candidates in New South Wales and it is thus unlikely that this phenomenon will reoccur in 2027.
6. ^ This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Northern Tablelands state by-election, which Labor did not contest, for consistency.
7. ^ a b c Two-party preferred result estimated by Kevin Bonham.
8. ^ a b c d e f g h Two-party-preferred result estimated by William Bowe of The Poll Bludger.
9. ^ Includes two-party preferred result estimate.

## References

[edit]

1. ^ a b Special Minister of State (18 February 2025). "NSW Government takes steps to avoid Easter long weekend clash with 2027 state election" (Press release). Premier's Department. Archived from the original on 19 February 2025. Retrieved 19 February 2025.
2. ^ Wang, Jessica (9 May 2023). "Ben Franklin becomes NSW Legislative Council president after bitter saga". NCA NewsWire. Retrieved 10 May 2023 – via news.com.au.
3. ^ Lundie, Rob (1 September 2016). "'So when is the next election?': Australian elections timetable as at 1 September 2016". Research Paper Series, 2016–17. Australian Parliament. ISSN 1834-9854. Archived from the original on 16 September 2024. Retrieved 26 March 2023.
4. ^ Constitution Act 1902 (NSW) s 24B
5. ^ "State Register of Parties". NSW Electoral Commission. 13 February 2025. Retrieved 26 March 2023.
6. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra (24 July 2025). "How the diabolical federal election result has hit the NSW Liberals". The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 24 July 2025. Retrieved 24 July 2025.
7. ^ Bonham, Kevin [@kevinbonham] (24 July 2025). "#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 38 L-NP 32 GRN 13 IND 8 others 10. My 2PP estimate 57.7 to ALP (+5.4). Federal boost effect?" (Tweet). Archived from the original on 24 July 2025. Retrieved 24 July 2025 – via Twitter.
8. ^ a b McGowan, Michael (22 April 2025). "Revealed: What NSW voters really think of their schools and transport". The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 21 April 2025. Retrieved 23 April 2025.
9. ^ Bowe, William (20 June 2025). "Resolve Strategic: Labor 32, Coalition 35, Greens 11 in New South Wales". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 24 May 2025. Retrieved 24 July 2025.
10. ^ a b "NSW Poll Shows 2.4% Two-Party Swing to Coalition". demosau.com. 1 April 2025. Archived from the original on 2 April 2025. Retrieved 1 April 2025.
11. ^ "New South Wales State Voting Intention Poll" (PDF). DemosAU. 1 April 2025. p. 2\. Archived (PDF) from the original on 4 May 2025. Retrieved 2 April 2025.
12. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra (25 February 2025). "Train dispute and chauffeur scandals: NSW Labor takes a hit". The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 25 February 2025. Retrieved 25 February 2025.
13. ^ Bonham, Kevin [@kevinbonham] (25 February 2025). "#ResolvePM NSW(state) ALP 29 L-NP 38 GRN 14 IND 11* others 8 * On readout everywhere, would not get this at an election. My 2PP estimate (very rough) 51 to L-NP #nswpol" (Tweet). Archived from the original on 26 February 2025. Retrieved 25 February 2025 – via Twitter.
14. ^ O'Doherty, James (29 November 2024). "'Albo-tross': PM a huge drag on Minns govt, says new poll". The Daily Telegraph. Sydney: News Corp Australia. Archived from the original on 28 November 2024. Retrieved 29 November 2024.
15. ^ "NSW state vote intention" (PDF). RedBridge Group. 26 November 2024. Archived (PDF) from the original on 19 February 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2024.
16. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra (9 October 2024). "Revealed: The NSW housing reform that has disappointed most voters". The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 9 October 2024. Retrieved 9 October 2024.
17. ^ Bonham, Kevin [@kevinbonham] (9 October 2024). "#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 32 L-NP 37 Grn 11 IND 14* others 6" (Tweet). Archived from the original on 1 March 2025. Retrieved 20 October 2024 – via Twitter. "My 2PP estimate 50-50 (my Aug estimate was 51.2 to L-NP) #nswpol"
18. ^ Bowe, William (8 September 2024). "Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread)". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 19 February 2025. Retrieved 9 September 2024.
19. ^ "Federal & State Political Poll" (PDF). wolf+smith. August 2024. pp. 11–15\. Archived (PDF) from the original on 29 January 2025. Retrieved 9 September 2024.
20. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra (18 August 2024). "NSW voters back rental reforms to stop unfair evictions". The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 18 August 2024. Retrieved 18 August 2024.
21. ^ Bowe, William (19 August 2024). "New South Wales: Resolve Strategic poll, Hornsby and Epping by-elections, Liberal council candidates fiasco". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 1 March 2025. Retrieved 18 August 2024.
22. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra (21 June 2024). "The housing crisis has split Sydney. This is where the voters have landed". The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 20 June 2024. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
23. ^ Bowe, William (20 June 2024). "Resolve Strategic: Labor 32, Coalition 35, Greens 11 in New South Wales". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 3 October 2024. Retrieved 18 August 2024.
24. ^ a b O'Doherty, James (10 June 2024). "'Politics of grievance' on show as Chris Minns' NSW Labor government slides in the polls". The Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 9 June 2024. Retrieved 10 June 2024.
25. ^ a b Bowe, William (3 May 2024). "Resolve Strategic: Labor 33, Coalition 36, Greens 12 in NSW". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 5 December 2024. Retrieved 3 May 2024.
26. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra (5 March 2024). "NSW Labor trailing Coalition for first time in two years". The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 4 March 2024. Retrieved 5 March 2024.
27. ^ Bowe, William (6 March 2024). "Resolve Strategic: Labor 34, Coalition 38, Greens 12 in NSW". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 14 December 2024. Retrieved 6 March 2024.
28. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra (11 November 2023). "NSW Labor slides as Greens, independents make ground with voters". The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 10 November 2023. Retrieved 11 November 2023.
29. ^ Bowe, William (12 November 2023). "Resolve Strategic: Labor 36, Coalition 32, Greens 13 in New South Wales". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 4 November 2024. Retrieved 7 December 2023.
30. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra (14 September 2023). "Honeymoon over as NSW Labor suffers hit to primary vote". The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 13 September 2023. Retrieved 14 September 2023.
31. ^ Bowe, William (14 September 2023). "Resolve Strategic: Labor 38, Coalition 36, Greens 9 in NSW". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 11 November 2024. Retrieved 14 September 2023.
32. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra (21 July 2023). "Majority still 'liked and respected' Berejiklian, but one-third changed minds after corrupt finding". The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 20 July 2023. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
33. ^ Bowe, William (23 July 2023). "Resolve Strategic: Labor 41, Coalition 32, Greens 10 in NSW". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 15 September 2024. Retrieved 22 August 2023.
34. ^ a b Smith, Alexandra (18 May 2023). "Rise in voters worried about skyrocketing rental prices adds to Minns' cost-of-living challenge". The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 17 May 2023. Retrieved 18 May 2023.
35. ^ Bowe, William (18 May 2023). "Resolve Strategic: Labor 44, Coalition 31, Greens 9 in New South Wales". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 15 September 2024. Retrieved 22 August 2023.

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