43rd Manitoba general election

Upcoming general election in Manitoba

43rd Manitoba general election

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| <- 2019 | On October 3, 2023 |

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* * *

57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
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Leader  | Heather Stefanson | Wab Kinew
Party  | Progressive Conservative | New Democratic
Leader since  | October 30, 2021 | September 16, 2017
Leader's seat  | Tuxedo | Fort Rouge
Last election  | 36 seats, 47.07% | 18 seats, 31.38%
Current seats  | 35  | 18
Seats needed |  | 11

* * *

Leader  | Dougald Lamont | James Beddome
(resigning)
Party  | Liberal | Green
Leader since  | October 21, 2017 | November 15, 2014
Leader's seat  | St. Boniface | No seat
Last election  | 3 seats, 14.48%  | 0 seats, 6.24%
Current seats  | 3  | 0
Seats needed | 26  | 29

* * *

| Incumbent Premier

Heather Stefanson
Progressive Conservative

|

The 43rd Manitoba general election is scheduled to occur on October 3, 2023 to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba will attempt to win a third term in government, having won the 2016 and 2019 elections. On August 10, 2021, incumbent premier Brian Pallister announced that he will not seek re-election. Heather Stefanson was elected to succeed him.[1][2]

## Contents

* 1 Legislature summary
* 1.1 Incumbents not running for reelection
* 2 Candidates
* 3 Opinion polls
* 4 By-Elections prior to 2023 Election
* 5 Opinion poll sources
* 6 References

## Legislature summary[edit]

Manitoba Legislature Party  | Leader  | Candidates | Seats  | Popular vote

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2019 | Current | Next  | +/-  | Votes  | %  | +/-
| Progressive Conservative | Heather Stefanson | 17 | 36 | 35 |  |  |  |  |
| New Democratic | Wab Kinew | 30 | 18 | 18 |  |  |  |  |
| Liberal | Dougald Lamont | 6 | 3 | 3 |  |  |  |  |
| Green | James Beddome | - | - | - | - | - |  |  |
| Manitoba | Wayne Sturby  | - | - | - | - | - |  |  |
| Communist | Frank Komarniski  | - | - | - | - | - |  |  |
| Keystone  | Kevin Friesen  | - | - | - | - | - |  |  |
| Independents  | 2 | - | - | - | - |  |  |
| Vacant  | 1 |  | - |  |  |
Blank and invalid votes  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
Total | 55 | 57 | 57 | - |  |  |  |
Registered voters/turnout  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |

### Incumbents not running for reelection[edit]

Electoral district  | Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee  | New MLA

|
|

Midland |  | Blaine Pedersen[3]
| –
Agassiz |  | Eileen Clarke[4]
| –
Lakeside |  | Ralph Eichler[5] | –
La Verendrye |  | Dennis Smook[6] | –

## Candidates[edit]

See also: List of candidates of the 43rd Manitoba general election

## Opinion polls[edit]

Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election

Polling firm  | Dates
conducted  | Last date
of polling  | Source  | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | Others | Margin
of error  | Sample
size  | Polling
method  | Lead

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|
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|

|  |  |
Probe Research  | Sep 8–Sep 18, 2022  | Sep 18, 2022  | [p 1] | 37%  | 44% | 15%  | 3%  | 1%  | 3.1%  | 1,000  | Telephone  | 7%
Angus Reid  | June 7–June 13, 2022  | June 13, 2022  | [p 2] | 38%  | 40% | 13%  | 3%  | 6%  | 5%  | 468  | Online  | 2%
Probe Research  | Jun 1–Jun 12, 2022  | June 12, 2022  | [p 3] | 35%  | 45% | 13%  | 3%  | 4%  | 3.1%  | 1,000  | Telephone  | 10%
Probe Research  | Mar 9–Mar 21, 2022  | March 21, 2022  | [p 4] | 34%  | 44% | 15%  | 2%  | 5%  | 3.1%  | 1,000  | Telephone  | 10%
Angus Reid  | Mar 10–Mar 15, 2022  | March 15, 2022  | [p 5][p 6] | 39%  | 40% | 14%  | 3%  | 5%  | 4%  | 475  | Online  | 1%
Angus Reid  | Jan 7–12, 2022  | January 12, 2022  | [p 7] | 36%  | 42% | 12%  | 3%  | 6%  | 5%  | 407  | Online  | 6%
Probe Research  | Nov 23–Dec 5, 2021  | Dec 5, 2021  | [p 8] | 37%  | 42% | 12%  | 4%  | 5%  | 3.1%  | 1,000  | Telephone  | 5%
| October 30, 2021 | Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party
Innovative Research  | Sep 24–Oct 5, 2021  | Oct 5, 2021  | [p 9] | 41% | 32%  | 18%  | 5%  | 3%  | N/A  | 678  | Online  | 9%
Angus Reid  | Sep 29–Oct 3, 2021  | October 3, 2021  | [p 10] | 38%  | 43% | 11%  | 4%  | 5%  | N/A  | 435  | Online  | 5%
Probe Research  | Sep 7–20, 2021  | Sep 20, 2021  | [p 11] | 35%  | 42% | 12%  | 3%  | 8%  | 3.1%  | 1,000  | Telephone  | 7%
Probe Research  | Jun 2–11, 2021  | Jun 11, 2021  | [p 12] | 29%  | 47% | 14%  | 5%  | 5%  | 3.1%  | 1,000  | Telephone  | 18%
Angus Reid  | Jun 2–7, 2021  | Jun 7, 2021  | [p 13] | 39%  | 42% | 11%  | 4%  | 4%  | 4.0%  | 504  | Online  | 3%
Probe Research  | Mar 10–26, 2021  | Mar 26, 2021  | [p 14] | 36%  | 42% | 11%  | 7%  | 4%  | 3.1%  | 1,000  | Telephone  | 6%
Probe Research  | Nov 24–Dec 4, 2020  | Dec 4, 2020  | [p 15] | 37%  | 41% | 14%  | 6%  | 3%  | 3.1%  | 1,000  | Telephone  | 4%
Angus Reid  | Nov 24–30, 2020  | Nov 30, 2020  | [p 16] | 39%  | 40% | 12%  | 5%  | 4%  | 4.8%  | 420  | Online  | 1%
Probe Research  | Sep 8–17, 2020  | Sep 17, 2020  | [p 17] | 43% | 34%  | 16%  | 5%  | 3%  | 3.1%  | 1,000  | Telephone  | 9%
EKOS  | Jul 24–Aug 26, 2020  | Aug 26, 2020  | [p 18] | 44% | 31%  | 12%  | 9%  | 4%  | 2.9%  | 1,154  | HD-IVR  | 13%
EKOS  | Jun 16–Jul 23, 2020  | Jul 23, 2020  | [p 19] | 43% | 27%  | 18%  | 7%  | 5%  | 2.4%  | 1,691  | HD-IVR  | 16%
Probe Research  | Jun 2–11, 2020  | Jun 11, 2020  | [p 20] | 38% | 36%  | 18%  | 7%  | 2%  | 3.1%  | 1,000  | Telephone  | 2%
Probe Research  | Mar 10–24, 2020  | Mar 24, 2020  | [p 21] | 43% | 33%  | 14%  | 8%  | 2%  | 3.1%  | 1,000  | Telephone  | 10%
Innovative Research  | May 29–Jun 3, 2020  | June 3, 2020  | [p 22] | 38% | 26%  | 26%  | 10%  | N/A  | N/A  | 200  | Online  | 12%
Probe Research  | Mar 10–24, 2020  | Mar 24, 2020  | [p 23] | 43% | 33%  | 14%  | 8%  | 2%  | 3.1%  | 1,000  | Telephone  | 10%
Probe Research  | Nov 27–Dec 10, 2019  | Dec 10, 2019  | [p 24] | 42% | 36%  | 13%  | 8%  | 2%  | 3.1%  | 1,000  | Telephone  | 6%
2019 general election | Sep 10, 2019 | —  |  | 47.1% | 31.4%  | 14.5%  | 6.4%  | 0.6%  | —  | —  | —  | 15.7%
Polling firm  | Dates
conducted  | Last date
of polling  | Source  |  |  |  |  | Others | Margin
of error  | Sample
size  | Polling
method  | Lead
PC | NDP | Liberal | Green

## By-Elections prior to 2023 Election[edit]

Manitoba provincial by-election, March 22, 2022: Fort Whyte
Resignation of Brian Pallister

Party  | Candidate  | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures
| Progressive Conservative | Obby Khan | 3,050 | 42.51 | -14.68 |
| Liberal | Willard Reaves | 2,853 | 39.77 | +22.53 |
| New Democratic | Trudy Schroeder | 1,112 | 15.50 | -2.38 |
| Independent | Patrick Allard | 101 | 1.41 | — |
| Green | Nicolas Geddert | 55 | 0.77 | -6.00 |
Total valid votes  | 7,174
Total rejected ballots  | 15 | 0.21 | -0.33
Turnout  | 7,189 | 42.62 | -14.57
Eligible voters  | 15,907 | — | -0.29
| Progressive Conservative hold | Swing | -18.61
Source: Elections Manitoba[7][8]
Manitoba provincial by-election, June 7, 2022: Thompson
Death of Danielle Adams

Party  | Candidate  | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures
| New Democratic | Eric Redhead | 1,465 | 70.74 | +16.19 |
| Progressive Conservative | Charlotte Larocque | 581 | 28.05 | -7.63 |
Total valid votes  | 2,046
Total rejected ballots  | 25 | 1.20
Turnout  | 2,071 | 19.34
Eligible voters  | 10,706 | —
| New Democratic hold | Swing | +12.44
Manitoba provincial by-election, On or before December 17, 2022: Kirkfield Park
Resignation of Scott Fielding

Party  | Candidate  | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures
| Progressive Conservative | Kevin Klein |  |  |  |
| New Democratic | Logan Oxenham |  |  |  |
| Green | Dennis Bayomi |  |  |  |
| Liberal | Rhonda Nichol |  |  |  |
Total valid votes  |
Total rejected ballots  |  | -
Turnout  |  | -
Eligible voters  |  | -

## Opinion poll sources[edit]

1. ^ "Support for Manitoba PCs has slipped since last election, NDP holds the lead | CTV News". ctvnews.ca. Retrieved 2022-09-27.`{{cite web}}`: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
2. ^ "Prairie Politics: Moe and Stefanson share a border, but residents' government satisfaction is worlds apart" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. 2022-07-08. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2022-07-09. Retrieved 2022-07-19.
3. ^ "NDP Maintains Lead Over PCs In Manitoba (June 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) | Probe Research Inc". probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2022-07-19. Retrieved 2022-06-19.
4. ^ "Gap Between NDP, PCs Widens (March 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2022-07-19. Retrieved 2022-03-26.
5. ^ "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid Institute. 2022-03-31. Archived from the original on 2022-03-31. Retrieved 2022-03-31.
6. ^ "Detailed Results" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. 2022-03-31. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2022-03-31. Retrieved 2022-03-31.
7. ^ "Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. 2022-01-20. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2022-01-20. Retrieved 2022-01-21.
8. ^ "No Bounce for New PC Leader and Premier | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2021-12-16. Retrieved 2021-12-16.
9. ^ "Canada This Month: Manitoba Politics" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-10-09. Retrieved 2021-10-11.
10. ^ "Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments | Angus Reid Institute" (PDF). www.angusreid.org. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-10-27. Retrieved 2021-10-31.
11. ^ "Progressive Conservative Support Rebounds in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2021-10-02. Retrieved 2021-10-12.
12. ^ "NDP Lead Widens Further in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2021-06-18. Retrieved 2021-06-18.
13. ^ "Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity and political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management | Angus Reid Institute". www.angusreid.org. 9 June 2021. Archived from the original on 13 June 2021. Retrieved 13 June 2021.
14. ^ "NDP Extends Lead as Pallister Plumbs Lower Levels of Popularity | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2021-03-31. Retrieved 2021-03-31.
15. ^ "NDP Takes Lead for First Time Since 2016 | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2021-01-17. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
16. ^ "Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, COVID-19 management". Angus Reid Institute. 2020-12-10. Archived from the original on 2021-01-13. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
17. ^ "Provincial PCs See Uptick in Support | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2021-01-27. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
18. ^ "Comfortable PC lead narrows in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. 2020-09-02. Archived from the original on 2021-01-14. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
19. ^ "Tories have comfortable lead over NDP in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. 2020-07-24. Archived from the original on 2021-01-20. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
20. ^ "PCs, NDP In Statistical Dead Heat | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2020-12-03. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
21. ^ "Provincial Party Support Remains Steady | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2020-12-03. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
22. ^ "Manitoba Politics in the Time of COVID-19: June 2020 Update" (PDF). innovativeresearch.ca. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2020-10-28. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
23. ^ "Provincial Party Support Remains Steady | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2020-12-03. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
24. ^ Robertson, Dylan (2019-12-27). "Dec 2019: NDP gains traction after PC re-election". Winnipeg Free Press. Archived from the original on 2020-09-17. Retrieved 2021-01-13.

## References[edit]

1. ^ Petz, Sarah (August 11, 2021). "Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister stepping down before next election". CBC News. Archived from the original on August 30, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
2. ^ Froese, Ian (October 30, 2021). "Heather Stefanson chosen as Manitoba's 1st female premier by a slim margin". CBC News. Archived from the original on October 30, 2021. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
3. ^ Blaine Pedersen [@BlainePedersen] (15 July 2021). "I will not be seeking re-election in the next provincial election" (Tweet). Retrieved 15 July 2021 - via Twitter.
4. ^ Clarke, Eileen (21 August 2022). "I will be retiring from my political life as of the 2023 provincial election". Facebook. Retrieved 22 August 2022.`{{cite web}}`: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
5. ^ The Canadian Press, "Former Manitoba cabinet minister Ralph Eichler won’t seek re-election". Winnipeg Free Press, October 4, 2022.
6. ^ Jordan Ross, "Smook to retire from legislature". Winnipeg Free Press, October 17, 2022.
7. ^ "Election Night Results Fort Whyte". Elections Manitoba. 22 March 2022. Archived from the original on 23 March 2022. Retrieved 22 March 2022.
8. ^ "2022". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved 22 March 2022.

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