California exodus

Emigration from California

The California exodus is the ongoing emigration of residents from California to other U.S. states or Mexico that started in the late twentieth century.[1][2] Common reasons for Californians leaving their home state include the high cost of living, crime, politics, taxes, pollution and traffic.[3][4] Texas is the leading destination of California's former residents, followed by Arizona, Nevada, Washington, and Florida.[5] The term has also been used to describe businesses leaving California, citing tax levels or regulations.[6]

## Origins of the term

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In 1989, the San Francisco Examiner and Knight Ridder called the trend of California residents emigrating to other states the "California exodus"[7][8] while the Los Angeles Times dubbed it the "Great California Exodus" in 1991.[9]

## Demographics

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Net domestic migration, California[10] Year  | In-migrants  | Out-migrants  | Net

|
|
|

2010  | 444,749  | 573,988  | –129,239
2011  | 468,428  | 562,343  | –93,915
2012  | 493,641  | 566,986  | –73,345
2013  | 485,477  | 581,679  | –96,202
2014  | 513,968  | 593,308  | –79,340
2015  | 514,477  | 643,710  | –129,233
2016  | 514,758  | 657,690  | –142,932
2017  | 523,131  | 661,026  | –137,895
2018  | 501,023  | 691,145  | –190,122
2019  | 480,204  | 653,551  | –173,347
2021  | 433,402  | 841,065  | –407,663
2022  | 475,803  | 817,669  | –341,866
2023  | 422,075  | 690,127  | –268,052

Main article: Demographics of California

California joined the United States after the Mexican–American War. Like much of the land ceded from Mexico in the war, California had only a small non-Native population.[11] However, the California gold rush led to a population boom, during which California gained statehood in 1850.[11] Between the 1850 and 1860 censuses, its population more than quadrupled.[12] It saw a second period of growth after World War II thanks to the aerospace and defense industries,[13] and a third during the 1980s and early 1990s because of the Silicon Valley tech industry.[14] Population growth slowed in the mid-1990s as the federal government cut aerospace spending after the end of the Cold War.[15][16]

The state has had a net loss of domestic migrants every year since about 1989.[1] According to the San Francisco Examiner, in 1989, most of those leaving California were people born in the state.[17] In 1993, the level of emigration from California was the highest in its recorded history.[18] From 1995 to 2000, California had the second largest net domestic outmigration, mostly to Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Colorado, while it gained migrants from abroad. Its net migration rate over this period was –25%, the 7th highest after Hawaii (–65%), Alaska (–51%), New York (–49%), North Dakota (–41%), Illinois (–30%), and Wyoming (–27%).[19] In 1955–1960, the ten largest state-to-state migration flows involving California all had the state as a recipient of people, while in 1995–2000, nine of the ten largest flows involving the state had California as a net loser, with only New York sending more people to California than it received in return.[20] The dot-com crash also motivated further emigration during the late 1990s and early 2000s.[21] Although the numbers of emigrants exceeded those of immigrants from within the United States, the continued arrival of immigrants from outside the United States led to a general increase in California's population during the 1990s.[22]

According to Census Bureau estimates, 6.2 million people left the state in the 2010s decade, while 4.9 million moved in: a net loss of 1.3 million residents.[23] From 2011 to 2015, the California exodus was substantial in absolute terms but small in net migration rate, with a considerable imbalance between inflows and outflows of migrants.[1] New York had higher net loss than California across these three metrics.[1]

According to the California Department of Finance, the state had 135,600 more people move out than moved in from July 2019 to July 2020, marking the third straight year of net migration losses.[24] After peaking just shy of 40 million Californians,[25] by 2020 into 2022 onward this slowing had crossed the zero population growth mark into outright negative population growth for the first time in over a century.[26] The exodus increased in 2021,[27] when more than 360,000 people moved out of California, especially going to states like Texas, Arizona, Washington, Idaho, and Utah. Some are also moving to Mexico to avoid the 2021–2023 inflation surge, as Mexico's cost of living is lower.[2] According to the 2021 American Community Survey (ACS), California had the 4th highest "stickiness" compared to other states, defined by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas as the share of people born in a state who still lived in that state (which was 73% for California).[28] According to the 2022 ACS, California had the lowest (11.1%) "inmigration" rate (number of people moving into a state as a share of that state's total number of movers), despite a large number of in-movers.[29]

The exodus accelerated with the COVID-19 pandemic.[30] Between April 2020 and July 2022, the state's population dropped by more than 500,000 people.[31] In July 2023, the California Department of Finance reviewed its population forecast for 2060 and concluded that the state's population would stay constant at about 40 million people, instead of reaching 53 million as estimated in 2013.[32][33] In October 2023, the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research found that California was "hemorrhaging residents to neighboring states like Texas, Arizona, and Nevada" at "higher levels than ever before", across all income levels, and especially among college graduates.[27][34] According to the Public Policy Institute of California, California used to gain college graduates and higher-income households and is now losing them, although at a relatively small rate (0.4% in 2022–2023).[30] California's population grew in 2023 for the first time since 2020, driven by lower mortality after the end of the pandemic and higher legal foreign immigration.[35] However, net migration was still negative (259,000 residents left for other states)[36] and the population growth was low (+0.17%).[37] In 2024, the state's population increased again; although it had the highest number of residents who moved to another state (–240,000), it received the second-highest number of immigrants from abroad (+361,000).[38] Without foreign immigration, California's population would shrink, making the state vulnerable to immigration-policy shifts.[39]

## Causes

[edit]

A 1995 study published in Geographical Review attributed various causes for emigration from California:[40]

> Military base closures, businesses abandoning a state regarded as overregulated and tax-unfriendly, and growing unease about the attainability of an idyllic life along the Pacific Slope began a trend that has gained volume and velocity. By late 1992 quality-of-life surveys found residents' perceptions of California had reached an all-time low, with only 30 percent considering the state "one of the best places to live". Social disorders and natural disasters in both southern and northern California further unsettled an economy that had been little more than dyspeptic since 1988 ... Symptoms of more than a substantial malaise, they indicate a great change. The causes of change may be subject to debate, but their galvanizing effect is beyond challenge: Californians began to emigrate.[40]

### For individuals

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The primary cause of the exodus is the high cost of living (and especially the cost of housing), followed by issues such as crime, politics, pollution, and traffic.[3][27][31] Kenneth P. Miller said in 2022 that taxes, as well as rising costs on housing, food, and other needs and wants, are the biggest reasons for Californians leaving the state.[41] The rise of remote work also made it easier for people to leave California,[42] especially for college graduates and higher-income households.[30] High-income Californians mostly move to states without income taxes (Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming).[43] A New York Times Upshot analysis found that partisanship plays a significant role: more Republicans have moved out of California than any other state.[44] According to Steven Malanga from the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, liberals are less likely than politically conservatives to leave the state.[45]

#### Housing

[edit]

See also: California housing shortage

California has repeatedly been ranked as one of the country’s most expensive states to live in. The median asking price for a house was $797,470 in California in 2022, which only a quarter of households in the state can afford.[2] Economists have cited restrictive zoning policies and lack of investment in transportation infrastructure that has resulted in sprawl, constrained housing supply, high housing prices, and severe congestion. They also cited over-reliance on sales tax, fees, and disproportionate property taxes on new residents caused by 1978 California Proposition 13.[46]

### For businesses

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In 2010, The Orange County Register noted an "exodus of businesses out of California" due to high costs.[47] Since 2019, more than 200 businesses have left California, the most of any American state.[48] Examples include Charles Schwab, Oracle, Palantir, Hewlett Packard Enterprise,[49] and Chevron.[50] Texas has received many of the new headquarters.[50] Elon Musk's companies Tesla and SpaceX relocated their headquarters to Texas in 2021 and 2024 respectively.[51][52] According to the Bay Area Council Economic Institute, the share of new jobs placed in California fell significantly for Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Tesla, and Snowflake after they moved their headquarters, while it stayed similar for Charles Schwab.[53] From July 2022 to July 2024, Californian cities had the worst job performance in knowledge industries (information, financial services, and professional and business services sectors), while Houston and Miami performed best.[53] In 2024, Fortune 1000 companies headquartered in California posted 25% of their jobs in-state, down from 33% before the pandemic.[53] Several film and TV productions also left California for other US states (such as Georgia) or other countries (such as the UK, Ireland, and Hungary).[54][55][56][57] In 2024, TV production in Hollywood was down 53% compared to its five-year average.[58][59]

According to the Hoover Institution, businesses leave California due to "taxes, regulations, litigation costs, labor costs, energy and utility costs, and employee cost of living".[6] Store chains Nordstrom and Whole Foods and shopping mall operator Westfield also mentioned safety issues as a reason to stop operating in some parts of California.[60][61]

## Consequences

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The exodus has cost California one seat in the House of Representatives after the 2020 U.S. Census.

In the 2020 redistricting cycle based on the 2020 census, California lost a seat in the House of Representatives for the first time in its history, going from 53 to 52 seats.[62][63] As of 2024, California is expected to lose four seats after the 2030 census.[64]

According to data from the Internal Revenue Service, migration of the taxpayers out of California resulted in California being the biggest income loser ($24 billion) in 2022.[65]

## By location

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This section needs expansion with: information on other locations besides SF. You can help by adding to it. (December 2024)

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### San Francisco

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Following the COVID-19 pandemic, many tech workers have embraced remote work, causing about a third of the commercial real estate in downtown San Francisco to be empty.[66] Between 2020 and 2023, nearly 40 retail stores have closed around Union Square.[60] Some observers theorized that San Francisco could enter a "doom loop",[66][67] while others argues that these claims were exaggerated and that the crisis was isolated to downtown San Francisco rather than citywide and that San Francisco had always been a "boom and bust" city.[68] According to US Census estimates, from 2020 to 2022, San Francisco's population declined by more than 60,000 people, or more than 7%.[60] In 2023, the city's population increased, with the AI boom cited as a contributing factor.[69]

## See also

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* California portal

* California Dream
* California–Texas rivalry
* Depopulation of the Great Plains
* Go West, young man
* List of U.S. states and territories by net migration#Net domestic migration
* Sun Belt
* White flight

## References

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### Citations

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1. ^ a b c d Huang, Peng; Butts, Carter T. (2024-07-02). "California Exodus? A network model of population redistribution in the United States". The Journal of Mathematical Sociology. 48 (3): 311–339\. doi:10.1080/0022250X.2023.2284431. ISSN 0022-250X. PMC 11164555. PMID 38863581.
2. ^ a b c Dymond Green (13 June 2022). "The California exodus continues as residents head south of the border". CNBC.
3. ^ a b "Droves of Californians are moving to Texas. Here's the life they are finding". Los Angeles Times. 2023-11-06. Retrieved 2023-11-08.
4. ^ Lin, Summer (2022-07-29). "California exodus continues, with L.A., San Francisco leading the way: 'Why are we here?'". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 2023-06-16.
5. ^ Sheidlower, Erin; Snodgrass, Alcynna; Lloyd, Noah (2024-10-27). "The California exodus has continued. Here's where most people leaving the Golden State moved to — and why". Business Insider. Retrieved 2025-03-01.
6. ^ a b Vranich, Joseph; Ohanian, Lee E. (2022-09-14). "Why Company Headquarters Are Leaving California in Unprecedented Numbers". Economics Working Paper (21117). Hoover Institution.
7. ^ Fernandez 1989, p. 14.
8. ^ Nussbaum 1989.
9. ^ Secter, Bob (May 19, 1991). "Getting Out: Tired of Sigalerts? Fed Up With Smog? Afraid to Go Out at Night? Pack Your Bags and Join the Great California Exodus". Los Angeles Times Magazine: 745 – via Newspapers.com.
10. ^ "State-to-State Migration Flows". The United States Census Bureau. United States Census Bureau.
11. ^ a b "The California Gold Rush". www.pbs.org. Retrieved 2023-06-03.
12. ^ State of California Total Resident Population, 1850 to 2020, California State Data Center
13. ^ "The History and Revival of Southern California's Aerospace Industry". PBS SoCal. 2019-07-09. Retrieved 2025-03-22.
14. ^ "California's population drops for the first time in history". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 2025-03-22.
15. ^ "State and Regional Economic Developments in California". lao.ca.gov. Retrieved 2025-03-22.
16. ^ "California - Growth, Diversity, Economy". Encyclopædia Britannica. 2025-03-21. Retrieved 2025-03-22.
17. ^ Fernandez 1989, p. 3.
18. ^ Starrs & Wright 1995, p. 420.
19. ^ "State-to-State Migration Flows: 1995 to 2000". Census.gov. Retrieved 2025-03-01.
20. ^ "Net Migration Between California and Other States: 1955-1960 and 1995-2000". United States Census Bureau. March 7, 2013.
21. ^ Girion 2001, p. 475.
22. ^ McCormick 2000, p. 3.
23. ^ "653,551 folks left California in 2019. Where did they go?". The Orange County Register. November 9, 2020.
24. ^ "California's growth rate at record low as more people leave". CNBC. December 16, 2020.
25. ^ Beam, Adam (23 December 2019). "California's Population Stalls Just Shy of 40 Million". AP.
26. ^ Avalos, George (4 May 2022). "Exodus: Bay Area, California population dropped in 2021 as people exited". BANG.
27. ^ a b c "Study: California population drain is real; State is "hemorrhaging" residents to other states - CBS San Francisco". www.cbsnews.com. 2023-10-26. Retrieved 2023-11-08.
28. ^ "Texas natives likeliest to 'stick' around, pointing to state's economic health". www.dallasfed.org. Retrieved 2025-03-01.
29. ^ "Number and Percentage of State-to-State Movers Increased Between 2021 and 2022". Census.gov. Retrieved 2025-03-01.
30. ^ a b c "Who's Leaving California—and Who's Moving In?". Public Policy Institute of California. Retrieved 2025-03-22.
31. ^ a b "California's population dropped by 500,000 in two years as exodus continues". Los Angeles Times. 2023-02-15. Retrieved 2023-03-04.
32. ^ "California Looks Into the Future — and Sees Fewer Californians". Bloomberg.com. 2023-07-22. Retrieved 2023-11-08.
33. ^ "California Exodus: Once growing rapidly, state population projected to remain the same through 2060". Santa Cruz Sentinel. 2023-07-26. Retrieved 2023-11-08.
34. ^ "California's population drain". Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). Retrieved 2023-11-08.
35. ^ "California's population grew in 2023 for first time since 2020". Reuters. 2024-04-30.
36. ^ Yan, Matt (2025-02-20). "Which States Attract the Most New Residents?". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2025-03-20.
37. ^ Castleman, Terry (2024-05-14). "California exodus left a gaping population hole. Can the Golden State finally bounce back?". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 2024-05-16.
38. ^ Turner, Austin (December 27, 2024). "California's population is no longer in decline". KTLA. Archived from the original on December 29, 2024. Retrieved December 30, 2024.
39. ^ Carlton, Jim; Overberg, Paul (May 25, 2025). "Immigration Is the Only Thing Propping Up California's Population". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 2025-05-30.
40. ^ a b Starrs & Wright 1995, p. 418.
41. ^ Miller, Kenneth P (23 March 2022). "What is causing Californians to leave the state?". San Bernardo Sun. Retrieved 29 September 2022.
42. ^ Sen, Conor (2023-10-30). "Exodus From New York and San Francisco Is Far From Over". Washington Post.
43. ^ "Where Are Californians Going When They Leave the Golden State?". Public Policy Institute of California. Retrieved 2025-03-23.
44. ^ Kaysen, Ronda; Singer, Ethan (2024-10-31). "Millions of Movers Reveal American Polarization in Action". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2025-02-27.
45. ^ "Don't count on migrating Californians to bring left-wing politics to their new homes". Dallas News. 2020-01-30. Retrieved 2021-03-07.
46. ^ "'California Exodus': Why Are So Many People Leaving The Golden State?". www.wbur.org. 11 February 2021. Retrieved 2021-06-28.
47. ^ Register, Jan Norman (2010-09-23). "'Leaving Cal.' list grows to 144 firms". Orange County Register. Retrieved 2025-03-22.
48. ^ Parikh, Tej (2024-10-10). "Checking out of Hotel California". Financial Times. Retrieved 2025-03-01.
49. ^ "What companies have left California since COVID?". KRON4. 2022-06-23. Retrieved 2023-05-26.
50. ^ a b Elliott, Rebecca F. (August 2, 2024). "Chevron, in Snub to California, to Move Its Headquarters to Houston". The New York Times. Retrieved August 2, 2024.
51. ^ Milmo, Dan (2024-02-01). "Elon Musk acts to move Tesla legal base to Texas after pay package ruling". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2025-03-01.
52. ^ Clark, Stephen (17 July 2024). "Elon Musk says SpaceX and X will relocate their headquarters to Texas". Ars Technica. Retrieved 22 August 2024.
53. ^ a b c "Bay Watch – Taking Stock of the Business Exodus". Bay Area Council Economic Institute. Retrieved 2025-03-23.
54. ^ Campione, Katie (2025-03-26). "Rob Lowe Claims California Leadership's Handling Of Domestic Film & TV Production Exodus Is "Criminal" As State Seeks Solutions". Deadline. Retrieved 2025-03-29.
55. ^ Smith, Julie Plec,Sarah Adina (2025-02-27). "How Can Hollywood Stop a Production Exodus?". The Hollywood Reporter. Retrieved 2025-03-29.`{{cite web}}`: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
56. ^ "Hollywood's exodus: Why film and TV workers are leaving Los Angeles". Los Angeles Times. 2024-06-24. Retrieved 2025-03-29.
57. ^ "As Productions Move Abroad, California Gears Up to Battle Film and TV Exodus". Yahoo News. 2024-09-25. Retrieved 2025-03-29.
58. ^ Cho, Winston (2025-01-15). "Los Angeles Film and TV Production Finishes 2024 At Historically Low Levels". The Hollywood Reporter. Retrieved 2025-03-29.
59. ^ Cho, Winston (2024-10-23). "Why Los Angeles Is Becoming a Production Graveyard". The Hollywood Reporter. Retrieved 2025-03-29.
60. ^ a b c Delouya, Samantha (2023-08-30). "It's not just crime: What's really going on with San Francisco's shrinking retail district". CNN. Retrieved 2024-06-19.
61. ^ Kavilanz, Parija (2023-05-23). "Why retail theft is soaring: inflation, the economy – and opportunity". CNN. Retrieved 2024-06-19.
62. ^ Ronayne, Kathleen (2021-04-27). "California losing congressional seat for first time". AP News. Retrieved 2023-12-02.
63. ^ Skelley, Geoffrey (2021-04-26). "Which States Won — And Lost — Seats In The 2020 Census?". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2023-12-02.
64. ^ Li, Michael (2024-12-19). "Big Changes Ahead for Voting Maps After Next Census". Brennan Center for Justice. Retrieved 2025-03-20.
65. ^ "The Blue-State Wealth Exodus Continues". Wall Street Journal. July 3, 2024.
66. ^ a b Hammond, George; Kinder, Tabby (2023-05-18). "What if San Francisco never pulls out of its 'doom loop'?". Financial Times. Retrieved 2023-05-26.
67. ^ Feng, Alice (May 5, 2023). "Downtown San Francisco continues to struggle as more businesses leave". Axios.
68. ^ Shultz, Alex (2023-05-19). "Media's SF 'doom loop' obsession has turned into a doom loop". SFGATE. Retrieved 2023-05-26.
69. ^ "Is pandemic exodus over? SF population slightly increasing, Census Bureau numbers show". ABC7 News. 15 March 2024.

### Sources

[edit]

* Fernandez, Elizabeth (July 3, 1989). "California dreamers: A rude awakening". San Francisco Examiner. pp. 1, 14 – via Newspapers.com.
* Girion, Lisa (January 21, 2001). "Shift Turning Talent Pool Upside Down". Los Angeles Times. pp. 474, 475 – via Newspapers.com.
* McCormick, Erin (September 18, 2000). "The great California exodus of the '90s". San Francisco Examiner. pp. 3, 7 – via Newspapers.com.
* Nussbaum, Paul (August 13, 1989). "Lifestyle in southern California spurs exodus". Honolulu Star Advertiser. Knight Ridder. p. 29 – via Newspapers.com.
* Starrs, Paul F.; Wright, John B. (October 1995). "Great Basin Growth and the Withering of California's Pacific Idyll". Geographical Review. 85 (4). Francis & Taylor: 417–435\. Bibcode:1995GeoRv..85..417S. doi:10.2307/215918. JSTOR 215918.