Effects of climate change on agriculture

For contributions of agricultural activities to climate change, see Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture.

Examples of the effects of climate change on agriculture: 2019 flooding of the Toki River caused by Typhoon Hagibis, which was exacerbated by climate change;[1] increase in global leaf area primarily caused by the CO2 fertilization effect;[2] 2020–present Horn of Africa drought, the worst drought on record and made worse due to the effects of climate change on the water cycle;[3] maize plant in Brazil attacked by fall armyworm, a pest that is expected to benefit from climate change.[4]

There are numerous effects of climate change on agriculture, many of which are making it harder for agricultural activities to provide global food security. Rising temperatures and changing weather patterns often result in lower crop yields due to water scarcity caused by drought, heat waves and flooding.[5] These effects of climate change can also increase the risk of several regions suffering simultaneous crop failures. Currently this risk is regarded as rare but if these simultaneous crop failures did happen they would have significant consequences for the global food supply.[6][7] Many pests and plant diseases are also expected to either become more prevalent or to spread to new regions. The world's livestock are also expected to be affected by many of the same issues, from greater heat stress to animal feed shortfalls and the spread of parasites and vector-borne diseases.[5]: 746

The increased atmospheric CO2 level from human activities (mainly burning of fossil fuels) causes a CO2 fertilisation effect. This effect offsets a small portion of the detrimental effects of climate change on agriculture. However, it comes at the expense of lower levels of essential micronutrients in the crops.[5]: 717 Furthermore, CO2 fertilisation has little effect on C4 crops like maize.[8] On the coasts, some agricultural land is expected to be lost to sea level rise, while melting glaciers could result in less irrigation water being available.[9] On the other hand, more arable land may become available as frozen land thaws. Other effects include erosion and changes in soil fertility and the length of growing seasons. Also, bacteria like Salmonella and fungi that produce mycotoxin grow faster as the climate warms. Their growth has negative effects on food safety, food loss and prices.[5]

There has been extensive research on the effects of climate change on individual crops, particularly on the four staple crops: corn (maize), rice, wheat and soybeans. These crops are responsible for around two-thirds of all calories consumed by humans (both directly and indirectly as animal feed).[10] The research investigates important uncertainties, for example future population growth, which will increase global food demand for the foreseeable future.[11] The future degree of soil erosion and groundwater depletion are further uncertainties. On the other hand, a range of improvements to agricultural yields, collectively known as the Green Revolution, has increased yields per unit of land area by between 250% and 300% since the 1960. Some of that progress will likely continue.[5]: 727

The scientific consensus is that global food security will change relatively little in the near-term. 720 million to 811 million people were undernourished in 2021, with around 200,000 people being at a catastrophic level of food insecurity.[12] Climate change is expected to add an additional 8 to 80 million people who are at risk of hunger by 2050. The estimated range depends on the intensity of future warming and the effectiveness of adaptation measures.[5]: 717 Agricultural productivity growth will likely have improved food security for hundreds of millions of people by then.[13][11] Predictions that reach further into the future (to 2100 and beyond) are rare. There is some concern about the effects on food security from more extreme weather events in future.[14][15][16] Nevertheless, at this stage there is no expectation of a widespread global famine due to climate change within the 21st century.[17][18]

## Direct effects from changing weather patterns

[edit]

### Observed changes in adverse weather conditions

[edit]

The observed increase in extreme weather events in Europe, from 1964 to 2015.[19] Soybean plants grow less and develop a smaller leaf area as they are exposed to temperatures beyond what they are historically used to.[20]

Agriculture is sensitive to weather, and major events like heatwaves or droughts or heavy rains (also known as low and high precipitation extremes) can cause substantial losses. For example, Australia's farmers are very likely to suffer losses during the El Nino weather conditions, while 2003 European heat wave led to 13 billion euros in uninsured agriculture losses.[21] Climate change is known to increase the frequency and severity of heatwaves, and to make precipitation less predictable and more prone to extremes, but since climate change attribution is still a relatively new field, connecting specific weather events and the shortfalls they cause to climate change over natural variability is often difficult. Exceptions include West Africa, where the climate-induced intensification of extreme weather was found to have already decreased millet yields by 10–20%, and sorghum yields 5–15%. Similarly, it was found that climate change had intensified drought conditions in Southern Africa in 2007, which elevated food prices and caused "acute food insecurity" in the country of Lesotho. Agriculture in Southern Africa was also adversely affected by drought after climate change intensified the effects of 2014–2016 El Niño event.[5]: 724

In Europe, between 1950 and 2019, heat extremes have become more frequent and also more likely to occur consecutively, while cold extremes have declined. At the same time, Northern Europe and much of Eastern Europe was found to experience extreme precipitation more often, while the Mediterranean became more affected by drought.[22] Similarly, the severity of heatwave and drought effects on European crop production was found to have tripled over a 50-year period – from losses of 2.2% during 1964–1990 to losses of 7.3% in 1991–2015.[23][19] In the summer of 2018, heat waves probably linked to climate change greatly reduced average yield in many parts of the world, especially Europe. During the month of August, more crop failures resulted in a rise in global food prices.[24]

On the other hand, floods, often linked to climate change, have also had notable adverse effects on agriculture in the recent years. In May 2019, floods shortened corn planting season in the Midwestern United States, lowering the projected yield from 15 billion bushels to 14.2.[25] During the 2021 European floods, estimates pointed to severe damage to the agricultural sector of Belgium, one of the countries hardest hit by the floods, including long-term effects like soil erosion.[26] In China, 2023 research found that extreme rainfall had cost the country about 8% of its rice output over the two preceding decades. This was considered comparable to losses caused by extreme heat over this period.[27]

### Projected effects from temperature increase

[edit]

Climate-driven changes in crop yields at different latitudes, as projected by the US National Research Council in 2011.[28]: Figure 5.1 Maize will fail to reproduce at temperatures above 35 °C (95 °F) and soybean above 38.8 °C (101.8 °F).[29]

Changes in temperature and weather patterns will alter areas suitable for farming.[30] The current prediction is that temperatures will increase and precipitation will decrease in arid and semi-arid regions (Middle East, Africa, Australia, Southwest United States, and Southern Europe).[30][31] In addition, crop yields in tropical regions will be negatively affected by the projected moderate increase in temperature (1–2 °C) expected to occur during the first half of the century.[21] During the second half of the century, further warming is projected to decrease crop yields in all regions including Canada and the Northern United States.[31] Many staple crops are extremely sensitive to heat and when temperatures rise over 36 °C (97 °F), soybean seedlings are killed and corn pollen loses its vitality.[32][33]

Higher winter temperatures and more frost-free days in some regions can currently be disruptive, as they can cause phenological mismatch between flowering time of plants and the activity of pollinators, threatening their reproductive success.[34] In the longer term, however, they would result in longer growing seasons.[35][36] For example, a 2014 study found that maize yields in the Heilongjiang region of China increased by between 7 and 17% per decade as a result of rising temperatures.[37] On the other hand, a year 2017 meta-analysis comparing data from four different methods of estimating effect of warming (two types of climate model, statistical regressions and field experiments where land around certain crops was warmed by a certain amount to compare them with the controls) concluded that on a global scale, warming alone has consistently negative effects on the yields of four most important crops, suggesting that any increases would be down to precipitation changes and the CO2 fertilization effect.[10]

#### Heat stress in livestock

[edit]

This section is an excerpt from Effects of climate change on livestock § Projected worldwide increases.[edit]

Increased intensity of global climate change causes even greater increases of thermal heat index in Jamaican farm animals. High thermal heat index is one of the more widely used indicators of heat stress.[38]

In general, the preferred ambient temperature range for domestic animals is between 10 and 30 °C (50 and 86 °F).[39]: 747 Much like how climate change is expected to increase overall thermal comfort for humans living in the colder regions of the world,[40] livestock in those places would also benefit from warmer winters.[41] Across the entire world, however, increasing summertime temperatures as well as more frequent and intense heatwaves will have clearly negative effects, substantially elevating the risk of livestock suffering from heat stress. Under the climate change scenario of highest emissions and greatest warming, SSP5-8.5, "cattle,sheep, goats, pigs and poultry in the low latitudes will face 72–136 additional days per year of extreme stress from high heat and humidity".[39]: 717

In Jamaica, considered representative of the Caribbean region, all livestock animals besides layer hens are already exposed to "very severe" heat stress in the present climate, with pigs being exposed to it at least once per day during the 5 summer and early autumn months, while ruminants and broilers only avoid daily exposure to very severe heat stress during the winter. it has been projected that even at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) of global warming, "very severe" heat stress would become a daily event for ruminants and broilers. By 2 °C (3.6 °F), it would be felt for a longer duration, and extensive cooling systems would likely become a necessity for livestock production in the Caribbean. At 2.5 °C (4.5 °F), only layer hens would avoid daily exposure to "very severe" heat stress during the winter months.[38]

Studies of heat stress and livestock had historically focused on cattle, as they are often kept outdoors and so are immediately exposed to changes in climate. On the other hand, a little over 50% of all pork production and 70% of all poultry production worldwide originated from animals kept entirely in confined buildings even around 2006, and the raw numbers were expected to increase by 3–3.5 times for pigs, by 2–2.4 times for layer hens and 4.4–5 times for broilers. Historically, livestock in these conditions were considered less vulnerable to warming than the animals in outdoor areas due to inhabiting insulated buildings, where ventilation systems are used to control the climate and relieve the excess heat. However, in the historically cooler midlatitude regions, indoor temperatures were already higher than the outdoor temperatures even in summer, and as the increased heating exceeds these systems' specifications, confined animals are left more vulnerable to the heat than those kept outdoors.[42]

### Changes in agricultural water availability and reliability

[edit]

Main article: Effects of climate change on the water cycle

Future warming is expected to consistently increase the strength of heavy rainfall, yet it also consistently increases the amount of water plants lose through evotranspiration.[43] This effect is counteracted by the CO2 fertilization effect, but at times not enough to avoid events like the 2020–2023 Horn of Africa drought.[3]

Both droughts and floods contribute to decreases in crop yields. On average, climate change increases the overall amount of water contained in the atmosphere by 7% per every 1 °C (1.8 °F), thus increasing precipitation.[44][45] However, this increase in precipitation is not distributed evenly in space (atmospheric circulation patterns already cause different areas to receive different amounts of rainfall) or time: heavy rainfall, with the potential to cause floods, becomes more frequent. This means that under the probable mid-range climate change scenario,[46][47] SSP2-4.5, precipitation events globally will become larger by 11.5%, yet the time between them will increase by an average of 5.1%. Under the highest-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, there will be an 18.5% increase in size of events and 9.6% increase in the duration between them. At the same time, water losses by plants through evotranspiration will increase almost everywhere due to higher temperatures.[43] While the CO2 fertilisation effect also reduces such losses by plants, it depends on the area's climate which effect will dominate. As such, the 2020–2023 Horn of Africa drought has been primarily attributed to the great increase in evotranspiration exacerbating the effect of persistent low rainfall, which would have been more manageable in the cooler preindustrial climate.[3]

In total, this means that droughts have been occurring more frequently on average because of climate change. Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia, South and Southeast Asia are the parts of the globe where droughts are expected to become more frequent and intense in spite of the global increase in precipitation.[48] Droughts disturb terrestrial precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture,[49][50] and these effects can be aggravated by population growth and urban expansion spurring on increased demand for water.[51] The ultimate outcome is water scarcity, which results in crop failures and the loss of pasture grazing land for livestock,[52] exacerbating pre-existing poverty in developing countries and leading to malnutrition and potentially famine.[53][32]

Observed glacier mass loss in the Hindu Kush Himalayas region since the 20th century.[54]

Irrigation of crops is able to reduce or even remove the effects on yields of lower rainfall and higher temperatures – through localised cooling. However, using water resources for irrigation has downsides and is expensive.[30] Further, some sources of irrigation water may become less reliable. This includes irrigation driven by water runoff from glaciers during the summer, as there has already been an observed retreat of glaciers since 1850, and it is expected to continue, depleting the glacial ice and reducing or outright eliminating runoff.[55] In Asia, global warming of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) will reduce the ice mass of Asia's high mountains by about 29–43%,:[56] Approximately 2.4 billion people live in the drainage basin of the Himalayan rivers:[57] In India alone, the river Ganges provides water for drinking and farming for more than 500 million people.[58][59] In the Indus River watershed, these mountain water resources contribute to up to 60% of irrigation outside of the monsoon season, and an additional 11% of total crop production.[9] Since Effects of climate change on the water cycle are projected to substantially increase precipitation in all but the westernmost parts of the watershed, the loss of the glaciers is expected to be offset: however, agriculture in the region will become more reliable on monsoon than ever, and hydropower generation would become less predictable and reliable.[60][54][61]

## Effects on plants caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 and methane

[edit]

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide affects plants in a variety of ways. Elevated CO2 increases crop yields and growth through an increase in photosynthetic rate, and it also decreases water loss as a result of stomatal closing.[62]

This section is an excerpt from CO2 fertilization effect.[edit]

Top: the extent to which plant growth benefits from CO2 in different areas (red=more positive impact.) Bottom: the impact on the main types of terrestrial biomes: evergreen broadleaf forests (EBFs), other forests (OF), short woody vegetation (SW), grasslands (GRA), croplands (CRO), plants with C4 carbon fixation and total.[63]

The CO2 fertilization effect or carbon fertilization effect causes an increased rate of photosynthesis while limiting leaf transpiration in plants. Both processes result from increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).[64][65] The carbon fertilization effect varies depending on plant species, air and soil temperature, and availability of water and nutrients.[66][67] Net primary productivity (NPP) might positively respond to the carbon fertilization effect.[68] Although, evidence shows that enhanced rates of photosynthesis in plants due to CO2 fertilization do not directly enhance all plant growth, and thus carbon storage.[66] The carbon fertilization effect has been reported to be the cause of 44% of gross primary productivity (GPP) increase since the 2000s.[63] Earth System Models, Land System Models and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models are used to investigate and interpret vegetation trends related to increasing levels of atmospheric CO2.[66][69] However, the ecosystem processes associated with the CO2 fertilization effect remain uncertain and therefore are challenging to model.[70][71]

Terrestrial ecosystems have reduced atmospheric CO2 concentrations and have partially mitigated climate change effects.[72] The response by plants to the carbon fertilization effect is unlikely to significantly reduce atmospheric CO2 concentration over the next century due to the increasing anthropogenic influences on atmospheric CO2.[65][66][73][74] Earth's vegetated lands have shown significant greening since the early 1980s[75] largely due to rising levels of atmospheric CO2.[76][77][78][79]

### Higher yields due to CO2 fertilisation

[edit]

CO2 fertilization (grey) results in substantially less severe cumulative effects on agricultural productivity compared to its absence (black), as estimated by the IPCC in 2007.[80]

This section is an excerpt from CO2 fertilization effect § Observations and trends.[edit]

A 1993 review of scientific greenhouse studies found that a doubling of CO2 concentration would stimulate the growth of 156 different plant species by an average of 37%. Response varied significantly by species, with some showing much greater gains and a few showing a loss. For example, a 1979 greenhouse study found that with doubled CO2 concentration the dry weight of 40-day-old cotton plants doubled, but the dry weight of 30-day-old maize plants increased by only 20%.[81][82]

In addition to greenhouse studies, field and satellite measurements attempt to understand the effect of increased CO2 in more natural environments. In free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiments plants are grown in field plots and the CO2 concentration of the surrounding air is artificially elevated. These experiments generally use lower CO2 levels than the greenhouse studies. They show lower gains in growth than greenhouse studies, with the gains depending heavily on the species under study. A 2005 review of 12 experiments at 475–600 ppm showed an average gain of 17% in crop yield, with legumes typically showing a greater response than other species and C4 plants generally showing less. The review also stated that the experiments have their own limitations. The studied CO2 levels were lower, and most of the experiments were carried out in temperate regions.[83] Satellite measurements found increasing leaf area index for 25% to 50% of Earth's vegetated area over the past 35 years (i.e., a greening of the planet), providing evidence for a positive CO2 fertilization effect.[84][85]

### Reduced nutritional value of crops

[edit]

Average decrease of micronutrient density across a range of crops at elevated CO2 concentrations, reconstructed from multiple studies through a meta-analysis.[86] The elevated concentration in this figure, 689 ppm, is over 50% greater than the current levels, yet it is expected to be approached under the "mid-range" climate change scenarios, and will be surpassed in the high-emission one.[87]

Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide may reduce the nutritional quality of some crops, with for instance wheat having less protein and less of some minerals.[88]: 439 [89] The nutritional quality of C3 plants (e.g. wheat, oats, rice) is especially at risk: lower levels of protein as well as minerals (for example zinc and iron) are expected.[5]: 1379 Food crops could see a reduction of protein, iron and zinc content in common food crops of 3 to 17%.[90] This is the projected result of food grown under the expected atmospheric carbon-dioxide levels of 2050. Using data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization as well as other public sources, the authors analyzed 225 different staple foods, such as wheat, rice, maize, vegetables, roots and fruits.[91]

The effect of increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide on the nutritional quality of plants is not limited only to the above-mentioned crop categories and nutrients. A 2014 meta-analysis has shown that crops and wild plants exposed to elevated carbon dioxide levels at various latitudes have lower density of several minerals such as magnesium, iron, zinc, and potassium.[86]

Studies using Free-Air Concentration Enrichment have also shown that increases in CO2 lead to decreased concentrations of micronutrients in crop and non-crop plants with negative consequences for human nutrition,[92][86] including decreased B vitamins in rice.[93][94] This may have knock-on effects on other parts of ecosystems as herbivores will need to eat more food to gain the same amount of protein.[95]

Empirical evidence shows that increasing levels of CO2 result in lower concentrations of many minerals in plant tissues. Doubling CO2 levels results in an 8% decline, on average, in the concentration of minerals.[86] Declines in magnesium, calcium, potassium, iron, zinc and other minerals in crops can worsen the quality of human nutrition. Researchers report that the CO2 levels expected in the second half of the 21st century will likely reduce the levels of zinc, iron, and protein in wheat, rice, peas, and soybeans. Some two billion people live in countries where citizens receive more than 60 percent of their zinc or iron from these types of crops. Deficiencies of these nutrients already cause an estimated loss of 63 million life-years annually.[96][97]

Alongside a decrease in minerals, evidence shows that plants contain 6% more carbon, 15% less nitrogen, 9% less phosphorus, and 9% less sulfur at double CO2 conditions. The increase in carbon is mostly attributed to carbohydrates without a structural role in plants – the human-digestable, calorie-providing starch and simple sugars. The decrease in nitrogen translates directly into a decrease in the protein content. As a result, higher CO2 not only reduce a plant's micronutrients, but also the quality of its macronutrient combination.[86]

### Increasing damages from surface-level ozone

[edit]

Anthropogenic methane emissions have a significant contribution to warming due to the high global warming potential of methane. At the same time, methane also acts as a precursor to surface ozone, which is a significant air pollutant. Its effects include lowering physiological functions and therefore the yield and quality of crops.[5]: 732 Following methane levels, tropospheric ozone levels "increased substantially since the late 19th century",[5]: 732 and according to a 2016 estimate, the four major crops (see later section) experienced yield losses of 5±1.5% relative to a no-climate change scenario due to ozone increases alone, which is nearly half of the negative effects caused by the other effects of climate change (10.9±3.2%), and cancels out most of the CO2 fertilisation effect (6.5±1.0%).[5]: 724

## Changes in the extent and quality of agricultural land

[edit]

Some locations alongside the United States' coast have over half of their freshwater wells below sea level, leaving them vulnerable to saltwater infiltration.[98]

### Erosion and soil fertility

[edit]

The warmer atmospheric temperatures observed over the past decades are expected to lead to a more vigorous hydrological cycle, including more extreme rainfall events. Erosion and soil degradation is more likely to occur. Soil fertility would also be affected by global warming. Increased erosion in agricultural landscapes from anthropogenic factors can occur with losses of up to 22% of soil carbon in 50 years.[99]

Climate change will also cause soils to warm. In turn, this could cause the soil microbe population size to dramatically increase 40–150%. Warmer conditions would favor growth of certain bacteria species, shifting the bacterial community composition. Elevated carbon dioxide would increase the growth rates of plants and soil microbes, slowing the soil carbon cycle and favoring oligotrophs, which are slower-growing and more resource efficient than copiotrophs.[100]

### Agricultural land loss from sea level rise

[edit]

A rise in the sea level would result in an agricultural land loss, in particular in areas such as South East Asia.[101] Erosion, submergence of shorelines, salinity of the water table due to the increased sea levels, could mainly affect agriculture through inundation of low-lying lands. Low-lying areas such as Bangladesh, India and Vietnam will experience major loss of rice crop if sea levels rise as expected by the end of the century. Vietnam for example relies heavily on its southern tip, where the Mekong Delta lies, for rice planting. A one-metre rise in sea level will cover several square kilometres of rice paddies in Vietnam.[102]

Besides simply flooding agricultural land, sea level rise can also cause saltwater intrusion into freshwater wells, particularly if they are already below sea level. Once the concentration of saltwater exceeds 2–3%, the well becomes unusable. Notably, areas along an estimated 15% of the US coastline already have the majority of local groundwater below the sea level.[98]

### Thawing of potentially arable land

[edit]

Climate change may increase the amount of arable land by reducing the amount of frozen land. A 2005 study reports that temperature in Siberia has increased three-degree Celsius in average since 1960 (much more than the rest of the world).[103][needs update] However, reports about the effect of global warming on Russian agriculture[104] indicate conflicting probable effects: while they expect a northward extension of farmable lands,[105] they also warn of possible productivity losses and increased risk of drought.[106][needs update]

The Arctic region is expected to benefit from increased opportunities for agriculture and forestry.[107]

## Response of insects, plant diseases and weeds

[edit]

Further information: Climate change and invasive species and Pest (organism) § In agriculture and horticulture

Climate change will alter pest, plant disease and weed distributions, with potential to reduce crop yields, including of staple crops like wheat, soybeans, and corn (maize).[108] Warmer temperatures can increase the metabolic rate and number of breeding cycles of insect populations.[108] Historically, cold temperatures at night and in the winter months would kill off insects, bacteria and fungi. The warmer, wetter winters are promoting fungal plant diseases like wheat rusts (stripe and brown/leaf) and soybean rust to travel northward.[109] The increasing incidence of flooding and heavy rains also promotes the growth of various other plant pests and diseases.[110]

### Insect pollinators and pests

[edit]

Locust swarm near Satrokala, Madagascar in 2014.

Climate change is expected to have a negative effect on many insects, greatly reducing their species distribution and thus increasing their risk of going extinct.[111] Around 9% of agricultural production is dependent in some way on insect pollination,[112] and some pollinator species are also adversely affected, with wild bumblebees known to be particularly vulnerable to recent warming.[113][114]

At the same time, insects are the most diverse animal taxa, and some species will benefit from the changes, including notable agricultural pests and disease vectors.[109] Insects that previously had only two breeding cycles per year could gain an additional cycle if warm growing seasons extend, causing a population boom. Temperate places and higher latitudes are more likely to experience a dramatic change in insect populations:[115] for instance, the Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic in British Columbia, Canada had killed millions of pine trees, partially because the winters were not cold enough to slow or kill the growing beetle larvae.[32] Likewise, potato tuber moth and Colorado potato beetle are predicted to spread into areas currently too cold for them.[116]

Further, effects of climate change on the water cycle often mean that both wet seasons and drought seasons will become more intense. Some insect species will breed more rapidly because they are better able to take advantage of such changes in conditions.[117] This includes certain insect pests, such as aphids and whiteflies:[32] similarly, locust swarms could also cause more damage as the result. A notable example was the 2019–2022 locust infestation focused on East Africa, considered the worst of its kind in many decades.[118][119]

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, is a highly invasive plant pest, which can cause have massive damage to crops, especially maize. In the recent years, it has spread to countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and this spread is linked to climate change. It is expected that these highly invasive crop pests will spread to other parts of the planet since they have a high capacity to adapt to different environments.[4]

### Invasive plant species

[edit]

This section is empty. You can help by adding to it. (January 2024)

|

### Weeds

[edit]

A continental-scale research platform for long-term study of the effects of climate change, land-use change and invasive species on ecological systems (research site in Front Royal, Virginia, U.S.)

A changing climate may favour the more biologically diverse weeds over the monocrops on many farms.[110] Characteristics of weeds such as their genetic diversity, cross-breeding ability, and fast-growth rates put them at an advantage in changing climates as these characteristics allow them to adapt readily in comparison to most farm's uniform crops, and give them a biological advantage.[32]

Weeds also undergo the same acceleration of cycles as cultivated crops, and would also benefit from CO2 fertilization. Since most weeds are C3 plants, they are likely to compete even more than now against C4 crops such as corn.[120] The increased CO2 levels are also expected to increase the tolerance of weeds to herbicides, reducing their efficiency.[110] However, this may be counteracted by increased temperatures elevating their effectiveness.[120]

### Plant pathogens

[edit]

Currently, pathogens result in losses of 10–16% of the global harvest and this level is likely to rise as plants are at an ever-increasing risk of exposure to pests and pathogens.[121] Research has shown that climate change may alter the developmental stages of plant pathogens that can affect crops. This includes several pathogens associated with potato blackleg disease (e.g. Dickeya), as they grow and reproduce faster at higher temperatures.[122] The warming is also expected to elevate food safety issues and food spoilage caused by mycotoxin-producing fungi, and bacteria such as Salmonella.[123]

Climate change would cause an increase in rainfall in some areas, which would lead to an increase of atmospheric humidity and the duration of the wet seasons. Combined with higher temperatures, these conditions could favour the development of fungal diseases, such as late blight,[124][109] or bacterial infections such as Ralstonia solanacearum, which may also be able to spread more easily through flash flooding.[116]

Climate change has the capability of altering pathogen and host interactions, specifically the rates of pathogen infection and the resistance of the host plant.[125] Also affected by plant disease are the economic costs associated with growing different plants that might yield less profit as well as treating and managing already diseased crops.[126] For instance, soybean rust is a vicious plant pathogen that can kill off entire fields in a matter of days, devastating farmers and costing billions in agricultural losses.[32] Change in weather patterns and temperature due to climate change leads to dispersal of plant pathogens as hosts migrate to areas with more favourable conditions. This increases crop losses due to diseases.[123][109] For instance, aphids act as vectors for many potato viruses and will be able to spread further due to increased temperatures.[127]

## Effects on crop yields

[edit]

### Observed effects

[edit]

The already observed effects of climate change on the production of four major crops.[128]

According to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report from 2022, there is high confidence that in and of itself, climate change to date has left primarily negative effects on both crop yields and quality of produce, although there has been some regional variation:[5]: 724 more negative effects have been observed for some crops in low-latitudes (maize and wheat), while positive effects of climate change have been observed in some crops in high-latitudes (maize, wheat, and sugar beets).[129]: 8 I.e. during the period 1981 to 2008, global warming has had negative effects on wheat yield in especially tropical regions, with decreases in average global yields by 5.5%.[130] A study in 2019 tracked ~20,000 political units globally for 10 crops (maize, rice, wheat, soybean, barley, cassava, oil palm, rapeseed, sorghum and sugarcane), providing more detail on the spatial resolution and a larger number of crops than previously studied.[128] It found that crop yields across Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and Australia had in general decreased because of climate change (compared to the baseline value of 2004–2008 average data), though exceptions are present. The effect of global climate change on yields of different crops from climate trends ranged from −13.4% (oil palm) to 3.5% (soybean). The study also showed that effects are generally positive in Latin America. Effects in Asia and Northern and Central America are mixed.[128]

While the Green Revolution had ensured the growth of overall crop production per land area of 250% to 300% since the 1960,[5]: 727 with around 44% attributed to newer crop varieties alone,[131] it is believed this growth would have been even greater without the counteracting role of climate change on major crop yields over the same period. Between 1961 and 2021, global agricultural productivity could have been 21% greater than it actually was, if it did not have to contend with climate change. Such shortfalls would have affected food security of vulnerable populations the most:[5]: 724 a study in 2019 showed that climate change has already increased the risk of food insecurity in many food insecure countries.[128] Even in developed countries such as Australia, extreme weather associated with climate change has been found to cause a wide range of cascading spillovers through supply chain disruption, in addition to its primary effect on fruit, vegetable, and livestock sectors and the rural communities reliant on them.[132]

Between 1961 and 1985, cereal production more than doubled in developing nations, largely due to the development of irrigation, fertiliser, and seed varieties.[133] Even in the absence of further scientific/technological developments, many of the existing advancements have not been evenly distributed, and their spread from the developed world to the developing world is expected to drive some improvements on its own. Further, agricultural expansion has slowed down in the recent years, but this trend is widely expected to reverse in the future in order to maintain the global food supply under all but the most optimistic climate change scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement.[134][87]

### Generalized yield projections

[edit]

Map of predicted climate change effects on agricultural yields between 2003 and 2080 (data from 2007).[80]

In 2007, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report had suggested that global production potential would increase up to around 3 °C (5.4 °F) of globally averaged warming, as productivity increases for cereals in high latitudes would outweigh decreases in the low latitudes and global aggregate yields of rain-fed agriculture would increase by 5–20% in the first half of the 21st century. Warming exceeding this level would very likely see global declines in yields.[135][136]: 14–15 Since then, subsequent reports had been more negative on the global production potential.[5]

The US National Research Council assessed the literature on the effects of climate change on crop yields in 2011,[28] and provided central estimates for key crops.[28]: 160 A meta-analysis in 2014 revealed consensus that yield is expected to decrease in the second half of the century, and with greater effect in tropical than temperate regions.[137]

### Effects on yields for four major crops

[edit]

US National Research Council projections of climate change effects on the most important crops.[28]: Figure 5.1

There is a large number of agricultural crops, but not all of them are equally important. Most climate change assessments focus on "four major crops" – maize (corn), rice, wheat and soybeans – which are consumed directly and indirectly, as animal feed (the main purpose of soybeans). The three cereals are collectively responsible for half of the total human calorie intake,[138] and together with soybeans, they account for two thirds.[10] Different methods have been used to project future yields of these crops, and by 2019, the consensus was that warming would lead to aggregate declines of the four. Maize and soybean would decrease with any warming, whereas rice and wheat production might peak at 3 °C (5.4 °F) of warming.[88]: 453

In 2021, a paper which used an ensemble of 21 climate models estimated that under the most intense climate change scenario used at the time, RCP8.5, global yields of these four crops would decline by between 3–12% around 2050 and by 11–25% by the year 2100. The losses were concentrated in what are currently the major agricultural producers and exporters. For instance, even by 2050, some agricultural areas of Australia, Brazil, South Africa, Southeast China, Southern Europe and the United States would suffer production losses of mostly maize and soybeans exceeding 25%.[139] A similar finding - that some major "breadbaskets" would begin to see unequivocal effects of climate change, both positive and negative, before the year 2040 - had been established in another study from the same year.[140] Since it represents the worst-case scenario of continually increasing emissions with no efforts to reduce them, RCP8.5 is often considered unrealistic,[141] and a less intense RCP4.5 scenario (which still leads to nearly 3 °C (5.4 °F) by century's end, far in excess of the Paris Agreement goals) is now usually considered a better match for the current trajectory.[46][47]

#### Maize

[edit]

Maize farming in Uganda is made more difficult due to heat waves and droughts worsened by climate change in Uganda.

Out of the four crops, maize is considered the most vulnerable to warming, with one meta-analysis concluding that every 1 °C (1.8 °F) of global warming reduces maize yields by 7.4%.[10]

It is also a C4 carbon fixation plant, meaning that it experiences little benefit from the increased CO2 levels.[8] When the results from modelling experiments comparing the combined output of latest earth system models and dedicated agricultural crop models were published in 2021, the most notable new finding was the substantial reduction in projected global yields of maize. While the previous generation suggested that under the low-warming scenario, maize productivity would increase by around 5% by the end of the century, the latest had shown a reduction of 6% under the equivalent scenario, SSP1-2.6. Under the high-emission SSP5-8.5, there was a global decline of 24% by 2100, as opposed to the earlier suggestion of a 1% increase.[140]

#### Rice

[edit]

A rice field suffering from the effects of drought in Binh Thuy District, Can Tho, Vietnam.

Studies indicate that on their own, temperature changes reduce global rice yields by 3.2% for every 1 °C (1.8 °F) of global warming.[10] Projections become more complicated once the changes in precipitation, CO2 fertilisation effect and other factors need to be taken into account: for instance, climate effects on rice growth in East Asia had been a net positive so far,[5]: 728 although 2023 research suggested that by the end of the century, China could lose up to 8% of its rice yield due to increases in extreme rainfall events alone.[27] As of 2021, global projections of rice yields from the most advanced climate and agricultural models were less consistent than they were for wheat and maize, and less able to identify a clear statistically significant trend.[140]

This section is an excerpt from Rice § Effects of climate change on rice production.[edit]

Predictions of climate change's effects on rice cultivation vary. Global rice yield has been projected to decrease by around 3.2% with each 1°C increase in global average temperature[142] while another study predicts global rice cultivation will increase initially, plateauing at about 3°C warming (2091–2100 relative to 1850–1900).[143]

The impacts of climate change on rice cultivation vary across geographic location and socioeconomic context. For example, rising temperatures and decreasing solar radiation during the later years of the 20th century decreased rice yield by between 10% and 20% across 200 farms in seven Asian countries. This may have been caused by increased night-time respiration.[144][145] IRRI has predicted that Asian rice yields will fall by some 20% per 1°C rise in global mean temperature. Further, rice is unable to yield grain if the flowers experience a temperature of 35 °C or more for over one hour, so the crop would be lost under these conditions.[146][147]

In the Po Valley in Italy, the arborio and carnaroli risotto rice varieties have suffered poor harvests through drought in the 21st century. The Ente Nazionale Risi [it] is developing drought-resistant varieties; its nuovo prometeo variety has deep roots that enable it to tolerate drought, but is not suitable for risotto.[148]

#### Wheat

[edit]

Wheat field in Hungary which had been affected by heavy rainfall in 2016.

Further information: Wheat and Winter Wheat

Climate change effects on rainfed wheat will vary depending on the region and local climatic conditions. Studies in Iran surrounding changes in temperature and rainfall are representative for several different parts of the world since there exists a wide range of climatic conditions. They range from temperate to hot-arid to cold semi-arid. Scenarios based on increasing temperature by up to 2.5 °C (4.5 °F) and rainfall decreases by up to 25% show wheat grain yield losses can be significant. The losses can be as much as 45% in temperate areas and over 50% in hot-arid areas. But in cold semi-arid areas yields can be increased somewhat (about 15%). Adaptation strategies with the most promise center around dates for seed planting. Late planting in November to January can have significant positive effects on yields due to the seasonality of rainfall.[149] However, those experiments did not consider the effects of CO2 increases.

Globally, temperature changes alone are expected to reduce annual wheat yield by 6% for every 1 °C (1.8 °F) of global warming.[10] However, other factors such as precipitation and the CO2 fertilisation effect benefit wheat yields far more. In November 2021, the results from modelling experiments comparing the combined output of latest earth system models and dedicated agricultural crop models were published. While it projected a consistent decrease in future global yields of maize, particularly under greater warming, it found the opposite for wheat yields. When the previous generation of models suggested a 9% increase in global wheat yields by 2100 under the high-emission scenario, the updated results indicate that under its highest-warming SSP5-8.5 scenario, they would increase by 18%.[140]

#### Soybeans

[edit]

Piezodorus guildinii, commonly known as red-banded stink bug, is a notable soybean pest which is expected to spread further and cause more damage in response to climate change.

Studies have shown that when CO2 levels rise, soybean leaves are less nutritious; therefore plant-eating beetles have to eat more to get their required nutrients.[32] In addition, soybeans are less capable of defending themselves against the predatory insects under high CO2. The CO2 diminishes the plant's jasmonic acid production, an insect-killing poison that is excreted when the plant senses it is being attacked. Without this protection, beetles are able to eat the soybean leaves freely, resulting in a lower crop yield.[32] This is not a problem unique to soybeans, and many plant species' defense mechanisms are impaired in a high CO2 environment.[121]

Studies indicate that on their own, temperature changes reduce global soybean yields by 3.1% for every 1 °C (1.8 °F) of global warming.[10] These projections become more complicated once the changes in precipitation, CO2 fertilisation effect and other factors need to be taken into account: as of 2021, global projections of soybean yields from the most advanced climate and agricultural models were less able to establish a strong trend when compared to the projections for maize and wheat.[140]

### Other crops

[edit]

Climate change induced by increasing greenhouse gases is likely to differ across crops and countries.[150]

#### Millet and sorghum

[edit]

A sorghum field at the shores of Lake Hayq in Ethiopia.

Millet and sorghum are not as widely consumed as the four major crops, but they are crucial staples in many African countries. A paper published in the year 2022 found that under the highest-warming SSP5-8.5 scenario, changes in temperature and soil moisture would reduce the aggregate yields of millet, sorghum, maize and soybeans by between 9% and 32%, depending on the model. Notably, this was a less pessimistic result than in the earlier models, which the authors attributed to simulating soil moisture directly, rather than attempting to indirectly account for it by tracking precipitation changes caused by effects of climate change on the water cycle.[151]

#### Lentils (besides soybeans)

[edit]

Climate change induced drought stress in Africa will likely lead to a reduction in the nutritional quality of the common bean.[152] This would primarily impact populations in poorer countries less able to compensate by eating more food, more varied diets, or possibly taking supplements.

#### Potatoes

[edit]

Response of six prominent potato varieties to drought conditions.[153]

This section is an excerpt from Potato § Impact of climate change on production.[edit]

Potato plants and crop yields are predicted to benefit from the CO2 fertilization effect,[154] which would increase photosynthetic rates and therefore growth, reduce water consumption through lower transpiration from stomata and increase starch content in the edible tubers.[155] However, potatoes are more sensitive to soil water deficits than some other staple crops like wheat.[156] In the UK, the amount of arable land suitable for rainfed potato production is predicted to decrease by at least 75%.[157] These changes are likely to lead to increased demand for irrigation water, particularly during the potato growing season.[155]

Potatoes grow best under temperate conditions.[158] Temperatures above 30 °C (86 °F) have negative effects on potato crops, from physiological damage such as brown spots on tubers, to slower growth, premature sprouting, and lower starch content.[159] These effects reduce crop yield, affecting both the number and the weight of tubers. As a result, areas where current temperatures are near the limits of potatoes' temperature range (e.g. much of sub-Saharan Africa)[155] will likely suffer large reductions in potato crop yields in the future.[158] On the other hand, low temperatures reduce potato growth and present risk of frost damage.[155]

As well as affecting potatoes directly, climate change will also affect the distributions and populations of many potato diseases and pests. For instance, late blight is predicted to become a greater threat in some areas (e.g. in Finland[116]) and become a lesser threat in others (e.g. in the United Kingdom[160] Altogether, one 2003 estimate suggests that future (2040-2069) worldwide potato yield would be 18–32% lower than it was at the time, driven by declines in hotter areas like Sub-Saharan Africa,[116] unless farmers and potato cultivars can adapt to the new environment.[109]

#### Grapevines (wine production)

[edit]

This section is an excerpt from Vitis vinifera § Climate change.[edit]

Chardonnay grapes which had been damaged by heat from sunburn. Grapevines are very responsive to their surrounding environment with a seasonal variation in yield of 32.5%.[161] Climate is one of the key controlling factors in grape and wine production,[162] affecting the suitability of certain grape varieties to a particular region as well as the type and quality of the wine produced.[163][164] Wine composition is largely dependent on the mesoclimate and the microclimate and this means that for high quality wines to be produced, a climate-soil-variety equilibrium has to be maintained. The interaction between climate-soil-variety will in some cases come under threat from the effects of climate change. Identification of genes underlying phenological variation in grape may help to maintain consistent yield of particular varieties in future climatic conditions.[165]

The gradually increasing temperatures will lead to a shift in suitable growing regions.[166] It is estimated that the northern boundary of European viticulture will shift north 10 to 30 kilometres (6.2 to 18.6 mi) per decade up to 2020 with a doubling of this rate predicted between 2020 and 2050.[167] This has positive and negative effects, as it opens doors to new cultivars being grown in certain regions but a loss of suitability of other cultivars and may also risk production quality and quantity in general.[168][166]

## Effects on livestock rearing

[edit]

This section is an excerpt from Effects of climate change on livestock.[edit]

Map of countries considered most and least vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate change on their grazing livestock.[169] Multi-faceted impacts of climate change on livestock.[41]

There are numerous interlinked effects of climate change on livestock rearing. This activity is both heavily affected by and a substantial driver of anthropogenic climate change due to its greenhouse gas emissions. As of 2011, some 400 million people relied on livestock in some way to secure their livelihood.[39]: 746 The commercial value of this sector is estimated as close to $1 trillion.[170] As an outright end to human consumption of meat and/or animal products is not currently considered a realistic goal,[171] any comprehensive adaptation to effects of climate change must also consider livestock.

The observed adverse impacts on livestock production include increased heat stress in all but the coldest nations.[40][172] This causes both mass animal mortality during heatwaves, and the sublethal impacts, such as lower quantity of quality of products like milk, greater vulnerability to conditions like lameness or even impaired reproduction.[39] Another impact concerns reduced quantity or quality of animal feed, whether due to drought or as a secondary impact of CO2 fertilization effect. Difficulties with growing feed could reduce worldwide livestock headcounts by 7–10% by midcentury.[39]: 748 Animal parasites and vector-borne diseases are also spreading further than they had before, and the data indicating this is frequently of superior quality to one used to estimate impacts on the spread of human pathogens.[39]

While some areas which currently support livestock animals are expected to avoid "extreme heat stress" even with high warming at the end of the century, others may stop being suitable as early as midcentury.[39]: 750 In general, sub-Saharan Africa is considered to be the most vulnerable region to food security shocks caused by the impacts of climate change on their livestock, as over 180 million people across those nations are expected to see significant declines in suitability of their rangelands around midcentury.[39]: 748 On the other hand, Japan, the United States and nations in Europe are considered the least vulnerable. This is as much a product of pre-existing differences in human development index and other measures of national resilience and widely varying importance of pastoralism to the national diet as it is an outcome of direct impacts of climate on each country.[169]

## Global food security and undernutrition

[edit]

See also: Effects of climate change on fisheries

Projected changes in average food availability (represented as calorie consumption per capita), population at risk of hunger and disability-adjusted life years under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: the baseline, SSP2, and SSP3, scenario of high global rivalry and conflict. The red and the orange lines show projections for SSP3 assuming high and low intensity of future emissions and the associated climate change.[173]

Scientific understanding of how climate change would affect global food security has evolved over time. The latest IPCC Sixth Assessment Report in 2022 suggested that by 2050, the number of people at risk of hunger will increase under all scenarios by between 8 and 80 million people, with nearly all of them in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Central America. However, this comparison was done relative to a world where no climate change had occurred, and so it does not rule out the possibility of an overall reduction in hunger risk when compared to present-day conditions.[5]: 717

The earlier Special Report on Climate Change and Land suggested that under a relatively high emission scenario (RCP6.0), cereals may become 1–29% more expensive in 2050 depending on the socioeconomic pathway.[88]: 439 Compared to a scenario where climate change is absent, this would put between 1–181 million people with low income at risk of hunger.[88]

It is difficult to project the effect of climate change on utilization (protecting food against spoilage, being healthy enough to absorb nutrients, etc.) In 2016, a modelling study suggested that by mid-century, the most intense climate change scenario would reduce per capita global food availability by 3.2%, with a 0.7% decrease in red meat consumption and a 4% decrease in fruit and vegetable consumption. According to its numbers, 529,000 people would die between 2010 and 2050 as the result, primarily in South Asia and East Asia: two-thirds of those deaths would be caused by the lack of micronutrients from reduced fruit and vegetable supply, rather than outright starvation. Acting to slow climate change would reduce these projections by up to 71%.[174] Food prices are also expected to become more volatile.[175]

As of 2017, around 821 million people had suffered from hunger. This was equivalent to about 11% of the world population: regionally, this included 23.2% of sub-Saharan Africa, 16.5% of the Caribbean and 14.8% of South Asia.[13] In 2021, 720 million to 811 million people were considered undernourished in 2021 (of whom 200,000, 32.3 million and 112.3 million people were at a "catastrophic", "emergency" and "crisis" levels of food insecurity, respectively).[12]

In 2020, research suggested that the baseline projected level of socioeconomic development (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2) would reduce this number to 122 million globally by 2050, even as the population grows to reach 9.2 billion. The effect of climate change would at most increase this 2050 figure by around 80 million, and the negative effect could be reduced to 20 million through enabling easier food trade with measures such as eliminating tariffs.[13]

In 2021, a meta-analysis of 57 studies on food security was more pessimistic, suggesting that the year 2050 population at risk of hunger would be around 500 million under SSP2. Some variations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways with high climate change and a lack of equitable global development instead resulted in an outright increase of global hunger by up to 30% from its 2010 levels.[11]

For the earlier IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in 2007, the analysis of four main SRES pathways had shown with medium confidence (about 50% certainty)[176]) that trends of social and economic development in three of them (A1, B1, B2) would see the number of undernourished people decline to 100–130 million people by the year 2080, while trends in A2 projected 770 million undernourished – similar to the contemporary (early 21st century) figures of ~700 million people. Once the effect of climate change implied by those scenarios was taken into account, A1, B1 and B2 scenarios would see 100–380 million undernourished by 2080 (still a major decline in hunger from 2006 levels), and A2 would see 740–1,300 million, although there was only low (20% certainty) to medium certainty in these figures.[177] Sub-Saharan Africa would likely overtake Asia as the world's most food-insecure region, primarily due to differing socioeconomic trends.[178]

### Effects of extreme weather and synchronized crop failures

[edit]

Areas of the globe where agriculture would become more difficult perhaps to the point of leaving the conditions historically suitable for it, under low-emission and high-emission scenarios, by 2100.[16]

Some scientists consider the aforementioned projections of crop yields and food security of limited use, because in their view, they primarily model climate change as a change in mean climate state, and are not as well-equipped to consider climatic extremes. For instance, a paper published in 2021 had also attempted to calculate the number of people facing hunger in 2050 – but now on the assumption that a climate event with a 1% (i.e. once in 100 years) likelihood of occurring in the new climate (meaning it would have been effectively impossible in the present climate) were to impact that year. It estimated that such an event would increase the baseline number by 11–33% even in the low-emission scenario, and by 20–36% in the high-emission one. If such an event were to affect more vulnerable regions like South Asia, then they would have required triple their 2021 level of known food reserves to absorb the blow.[14]

Notably, other papers show that simulating recent historical extreme events in climate models, such as the 2003 European heatwave, typically results in lower effects than what had been observed in the real world, indicating that the effects of future extreme events are also likely to be underestimated.[15][179]

Projections of crop yields for seven key crops in year 2100 and year 2500 under the second-highest warming scenario, RCP6.0. (Research from 2021.)[180]

The difference between climatic mean and extremes may be particularly important for determining areas where agriculture may stop being viable. In 2021, a research team aimed to extend climate model projections of mean changes in temperature and the water cycle to the year 2500. They suggested that under the second-strongest warming scenario RCP6.0, land area capable of supporting four major temperate crops (maize, potato, soybean and wheat) would become about 11% smaller by 2100 and 18.3% smaller by 2500, while for major tropical crops (cassava, rice, sweet potato, sorghum, taro, and yam), it would decline by only 2.3% around 2100, yet by around 15% by 2500. Under the low-emission scenario RCP2.6, changes are much smaller, with around 3% decline in suitable land area for temperate crops by 2500 and an equivalent gain for tropical crops by then.[180]

Yet, another paper from 2021 suggested that by 2100, under the high-emission SSP5-8.5, 31% and 34% of the current crop and livestock production would leave what the authors have defined as a "safe climatic space": that is, those areas (most of South Asia and the Middle East, as well as parts of sub-Saharan Africa and Central America) would experience very rapid shift in Holdridge life zones (HLZ) and associated weather, while also being low in social resilience. Notably, a similar fraction of global crop and livestock production would also experience a large change in HLZ, but in more developed areas which would have better chances of adapting. In contrast, under the low-emissions SSP1-2.6, 5% and 8% of crop and livestock production would leave what is defined as the safe climatic space.[16]

Certain countries around the world are particularly dependent on imports from specific exporters, leaving them the most vulnerable to crop failures in those countries.[181]

Also in 2021, it was suggested that the high-emission scenario would result in a 4.5-fold increase in the probability of breadbasket failures (defined as a yield loss of 10% or more) by 2030, which could then increase 25 times by 2050.[182] This corresponds to reaching 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) and 2 °C (3.6 °F) thresholds under that scenario: earlier research suggested that for maize, this would increase risks for multiple simultaneous breadbasket failures (yield loss of 10% or more) from 6% under the late-20th century climate to 40% and 54%, respectively.[6]

Some countries are particularly dependent on imports from certain exporters, meaning that a crop failure in those countries would hit them disproportionately. I.e. a ban on export of staple crops from Russia, Thailand and the United States alone would place around 200 million people (90% from Sub-Saharan Africa) at risk of starvation.[181]

Additionally, there is the issue of representing synchronisation - where extreme climate events happen to strike multiple important producer regions around the same time. It was estimated that if hypothetically, every region with a synchronized growing season were to experience crop failure at the same time, it would cause losses of four major crops between 17% and 34%.[183] More realistically, analysis of historic data suggested that there have already been synchronized climate events associated with up to 20% yield losses.[184]

According to a 2016 estimate, if global maize, rice and wheat exports declined by 10%, 55 million people in 58 poor countries lose at least 5% of their food supply.[181] Further, two specific Rossby wave pattern are known to induce simultaneous heat extremes in either Eastern Asia, Eastern Europe and Central North America, or in Western Asia, Western Europe and Western Central North America, respectively. These heat extremes have already been shown to cause 3–4% declines in crop yield across the affected regions:[185] yet, concerningly, climate models overestimate the effects of such historic events in North America and underestimate them elsewhere, simulating effectively no net yield loss.[7]

### Labour and economic effects

[edit]

Climate change is expected to exacerbate heat stress over at the North China Plain, which is particularly vulnerable as widespread irrigation results in very moist air. There is a risk that agricultural labourers will be physically unable to work outdoors on hot summer days at the end of the century, particularly under the scenario of greatest emissions and warming.[186]

As extreme weather events become more common and more intense, floods and droughts can destroy crops and eliminate food supply, while disrupting agricultural activities and rendering workers jobless.[36][187] With more costs to the farmer, some will no longer find it financially feasible to farm: i.e. some farmers may choose to permanently leave drought-affected areas.[188] Agriculture employs the majority of the population in most low-income countries and increased costs can result in worker layoffs or pay cuts.[53] Other farmers will respond by raising their food prices; a cost that is directly passed on to the consumer and affects the affordability of food. Some farms do not sell their produce but instead feed a family or community; without that food, people will not have enough to eat. This results in decreased production, increased food prices, and potential starvation in parts of the world.[189] The agriculture industry in India makes up 52% of their employment and the Canadian Prairies supply 51% of Canadian agriculture; any changes in the production of food crops from these areas could have profound effects on the economy.[35]

Notably, one estimate suggests that a warming of 3 °C (5.4 °F) relative to late 20th century (i.e. closer to 4 °C (7.2 °F) when compared to preindustrial temperatures – a level associated with the SSP5-8.5 scenario) would cause labour capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia to decline by 30 to 50%, as the number of days when outdoor workers experience heat stress increases: up to 250 days the worst-affected parts of these two continents and of Central and South America. This could then increase crop prices by around 5%.[5]: 717 : 725

Similarly, North China Plain is also expected to be highly affected, in part due to the region's extensive irrigation networks resulting in unusually moist air. In scenarios without aggressive action to stop climate change, some heatwaves could become extreme enough to cause mass mortality in outdoor labourers, although they will remain relatively uncommon (up to around once per decade starting from 2l00 under the most extreme scenario).[186]

Further, the role of climate change in undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies can be calculated as the loss of "years of full health".[5]: 717 One estimate presented in 2016 suggests that under the scenario of strong warming and low adaptation due to high global conflict and rivalry, such losses may take up 0.4% of the global GDP and 4% of the GDP in India and the South Asian region by the year 2100.[173]

### Long-term predictions (beyond 2050)

[edit]

In South Asia, the extent of cropland is expected to increase under most climate and socioeconomic scenarios, with some of the largest increases seen under high-warming scenarios. Low-warming scenarios are expected to see a decrease in area due to lower demand.[190] Similar trends are expected globally.[87]

There are fewer projections looking beyond 2050. In general, even as climate change would cause increasingly severe effects on food production, most scientists do not anticipate it to result in mass human mortality within this century.[18][17] This is in part because the studies also anticipate at least some continuation of the ongoing agricultural improvements, yet also because of agricultural expansion. For instance, a 2013 paper estimated that if the high warming of RCP 8.5 scenario was not alleviated by CO2 fertilisation effect, it would reduce aggregate yields by 17% by the year 2050: yet, it anticipated that this would be mostly offset through an 11% increase in cropland area.[134]

Similarly, one of the assumptions of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways is a significant increase in land allocated to agriculture (and a corresponding decrease in forest and "other natural land" area) in every pathway besides the SSP1 (officially subtitled "Sustainability" or "Taking the Green Road"), where the inverse occurs – and which has both the lowest level of future warming and the lowest projected population growth.[87]

## Regional effects

[edit]

See also: Effects of climate change

### Africa

[edit]

This section is an excerpt from Climate change in Africa § Agriculture.[edit]

Agriculture is a particularly important sector in Africa, contributing towards livelihoods and economies across the continent. On average, agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa contributes 15% of the total GDP.[191] Africa's geography makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change, and 70% of the population rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods.[192] Smallholder farms account for 80% of cultivated lands in Sub-Saharan Africa.[191] The IPCC in 2007 projected that climate variability and change would severely compromise agricultural productivity and access to food.[193]: 13 This projection was assigned "high confidence". Cropping systems, livestock and fisheries will be at greater risk of pest and diseases as a result of future climate change.[194] Crop pests already account for approximately 1/6th of farm productivity losses.[194] Climate change will accelerate the prevalence of pests and diseases and increase the occurrence of highly impactful events.[194] The impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Africa will have serious implications for food security and livelihoods. Between 2014 and 2018, Africa had the highest levels of food insecurity in the world.[195]

In relation to agricultural systems, heavy reliance on rain-fed subsistence farming and low adoption of climate smart agricultural practices contribute to the sector's high levels of vulnerability. The situation is compounded by poor reliability of, and access to, climate data and information to support adaptation actions.[196] Observed and projected disruptions in precipitation patterns due to climate change are likely to shorten growing seasons and affect crop yield in many parts of Africa. Furthermore, the agriculture sector in Africa is dominated by smallholder farmers with limited access to technology and the resources to adapt.[197]

Climate variability and change have been and continue to be the principal source of fluctuations in global food production across developing countries where production is highly rain-dependent.[198] The agriculture sector is sensitive to climate variability,[199] especially the inter-annual variability of precipitation, temperature patterns, and extreme weather events (droughts and floods). These climatic events are predicted to increase in the future and are expected to have significant consequences to the agriculture sector.[200] This would have a negative influence on food prices, food security, and land-use decisions.[201] Yields from rainfed agriculture in some African countries could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020.[200] To prevent the future destructive impact of climate variability on food production, it is crucial to adjust or suggest possible policies to cope with increased climate variability. African countries need to build a national legal framework to manage food resources in accordance with the anticipated climate variability. However, before devising a policy to cope with the impacts of climate variability, especially to the agriculture sector, it is critical to have a clear understanding of how climate variability affects different food crops.[202] This is particularly relevant in 2020 due to the severe invasion of Locusts adversely affecting agriculture in eastern Africa.[203] The invasion was partially attributed to climate change – the warmer temperature and heavier rainfall which caused an abnormal increase in the number of locusts.[203]

### Asia

[edit]

For East and Southeast Asia, an estimate in 2007 stated that crop yields could increase up to 20% by the mid-21st century.[136]: 13 In Central and South Asia, projections suggested that yields might decrease by up to 30%, over the same time period. Taken together, the risk of hunger was projected to remain very high in several developing countries.[needs update]

Different Asian Countries have various effects from climate change. China, for example, benefits from a 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) temperature increase scenario accompanying with carbon fertilisation and leading to a 3% gain of US$18 billion per year; however, India will face two thirds of the continent's aggregate losses on agriculture because its high corp net revenue suffers from the high spring temperature.[204] In the Indo-Gangetic plain of India, heat stress and water availability are predicted to have significant negative effects on yield of wheat.[205] Direct effects of increased mean and maximum temperatures is predicted to reduce wheat yields by up to 10%. The effect of reduced availability of water for irrigation is more significant, running at yield losses up to 35%.

Due to climate change, livestock production will be decreased in Bangladesh by diseases, scarcity of forage, heat stress and breeding strategies.[206]

### Australia and New Zealand

[edit]

Without further adaptation to climate change, projected effects would likely be substantial. By 2030, production from agriculture and forestry was projected to decline over much of southern and eastern Australia, and over parts of eastern New Zealand.[207] In New Zealand, initial benefits were projected close to major rivers and in western and southern areas.[207]

### Europe

[edit]

For Southern Europe, it was predicted in 2007 that climate change would reduce crop productivity.[136]: 14 In Central and Eastern Europe, forest productivity was expected to decline. In Northern Europe, the initial effect of climate change was projected to increase crop yields. The 2019 European Environment Agency report "Climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector in Europe" again confirmed this. According to this 2019 report, projections indicate that yields of non-irrigated crops like wheat, corn and sugar beet would decrease in southern Europe by up to 50% by 2050 (under a high-end emission scenario). This could result in a substantial decrease in farm income by that date. Also farmland values are projected to decrease in parts of southern Europe by more than 80% by 2100, which could result in land abandonment. The trade patterns are also said to be affected, in turn affecting agricultural income. Also, increased food demand worldwide could exert pressure on food prices in the coming decades.[208] In Ukraine, where temperatures are increasing throughout the year and precipitation is predicted to increase, winter wheat yields (wheat sown in winter) could increase by 20–40% in the north and northwestern regions by 2050, as compared to 2010.[209]

### Latin America

[edit]

See also: Climate justice § Examples

The major agricultural products of Latin America include livestock and grains; such as maize, wheat, soybeans, and rice.[210][211] Increased temperatures and altered hydrological cycles are predicted to translate to shorter growing seasons, overall reduced biomass production, and lower grain yields.[211][212] Brazil, Mexico and Argentina alone contribute 70-90% of the total agricultural production in Latin America.[211] In these and other dry regions, maize production is expected to decrease.[210][211] A study summarising a number of impact studies of climate change on agriculture in Latin America indicated that wheat is expected to decrease in Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay.[211] Livestock, which is the main agricultural product for parts of Argentina, Uruguay, southern Brazil, Venezuela, and Colombia is likely to be reduced.[210][211] Variability in the degree of production decrease among different regions of Latin America is likely.[210] For example, one 2003 study that estimated future maize production in Latin America predicted that by 2055 maize in eastern Brazil will have moderate changes while Venezuela is expected to have drastic decreases.[210]

Increased rainfall variability has been one of the most devastating consequences of climate change in Central America and Mexico. From 2009 to 2019, the region saw years of heavy rainfall in between years of below average rainfall.[213] The spring rains of May and June have been particularly erratic, posing issues for farmers plant their maize crops at the onset of the spring rains. Most subsistence farmers in the region have no irrigation and thus depend on the rains for their crops to grow. In Mexico, only 21% of farms are irrigated, leaving the remaining 79% dependent on rainfall.[214]

Suggested potential adaptation strategies to mitigate the effects of global warming on agriculture in Latin America include using plant breeding technologies and installing irrigation infrastructure.[211]

### North America

[edit]

See also: Climate change and agriculture in the United States

U.S. and African leaders meet at a Leaders Summit for Food Security and Climate change at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington, D.C. in 2014.

Droughts are becoming more frequent and intense in arid and semiarid western North America as temperatures have been rising, advancing the timing and magnitude of spring snow melt floods and reducing river flow volume in summer.[215] Direct effects of climate change include increased heat and water stress, altered crop phenology, and disrupted symbiotic interactions. These effects may be exacerbated by climate changes in river flow, and the combined effects are likely to reduce the abundance of native trees in favour of non-native herbaceous and drought-tolerant competitors, reduce the habitat quality for many native animals, and slow litter decomposition and nutrient cycling. Climate change effects on human water demand and irrigation may intensify these effects.[216]

In Canada, notable increases are predicted for spring-sown wheat.[217]

## Adaptation

[edit]

Climate smart agriculture in Machakos County, Kenya

Climate change adaptation measures may reduce the risk of negative effects on agriculture from climate change. Adaptation can take place through changes in management practices, agricultural innovation, institutional changes, and climate-smart agriculture.[218] To create a sustainable food system, these measures are considered as essential as changes needed to reduce global warming in general.[219][220]

Agricultural innovation is essential to addressing the potential issues of climate change. This includes better management of soil, water-saving technology, matching crops to environments, introducing different crop varieties, crop rotations, appropriate fertilization use, and supporting community-based adaptation strategies.[189][221] On a government and global level, research and investments into agricultural productivity and infrastructure must be done to get a better picture of the issues involved and the best methods to address them. Government policies and programs must provide environmentally sensitive government subsidies, educational campaigns and economic incentives as well as funds, insurance and safety nets for vulnerable populations.[222][189][121] In addition, providing early warning systems, and accurate weather forecasts to poor or remote areas will allow for better preparation.[189]

This section is an excerpt from Climate change adaptation § Changed rainfall patterns in agriculture.[edit]

Climate change is altering global rainfall patterns. This affects agriculture.[223] Rainfed agriculture accounts for 80% of global agriculture.[224] Many of the 852 million poor people in the world live in parts of Asia and Africa that depend on rainfall to cultivate food crops. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage. Extended drought can cause the failure of small and marginal farms. This results in increased economic, political and social disruption.

Water availability strongly influences all kinds of agriculture. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or its pattern of variability are both important. Moisture stress during flowering, pollination, and grain-filling harms most crops. It is particularly harmful to corn, soybeans, and wheat. Increased evaporation from the soil and accelerated transpiration in the plants themselves will cause moisture stress.

There are many adaptation options. One is to develop crop varieties with greater drought tolerance[225] and another is to build local rainwater storage. Using small planting basins to harvest water in Zimbabwe has boosted maize yields. This happens whether rainfall is abundant or scarce. And in Niger they have led to three or fourfold increases in millet yields.[226]

Climate change can threaten food security and water security. It is possible to adapt food systems to improve food security and prevent negative impacts from climate change in the future.[227]

## Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture

[edit]

This section is an excerpt from Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture.[edit]

The amount of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture is significant: The agriculture, forestry and land use sectors contribute between 13% and 21% of global greenhouse gas emissions.[228] Emissions come from direct greenhouse gas emissions (for example from rice production and livestock farming).[229] And from indirect emissions. With regards to direct emissions, nitrous oxide and methane makeup over half of total greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture.[230] Indirect emissions on the other hand come from the conversion of non-agricultural land such as forests into agricultural land.[231][232] Furthermore, there is also fossil fuel consumption for transport and fertilizer production. For example, the manufacture and use of nitrogen fertilizer contributes around 5% of all global greenhouse gas emissions.[233] Livestock farming is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.[234] At the same time, livestock farming is affected by climate change.

## See also

[edit]

* Global warming portal
* Environment portal
* Energy portal

* 2022 food crises
* Agroecology
* Climate change and invasive species
* Climate change and meat production
* Climate resilience
* Climate-smart agriculture
* Effects of climate change
* Effects of climate change on fisheries
* Environmental issues with agriculture
* Special Report on Climate Change and Land (2019 IPCC report)

## References

[edit]

1. ^ "Climate change added $4bn to damage of Japan's Typhoon Hagibis". World Weather Attribution. 18 May 2022. Retrieved 1 October 2023.
2. ^ Hille K (25 April 2016). "Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds". NASA. Retrieved 27 December 2020.
3. ^ a b c "Human-induced climate change increased drought severity in Horn of Africa". World Weather Attribution. 27 April 2023. Retrieved 1 October 2023.
4. ^ a b Zacarias DA (1 August 2020). "Global bioclimatic suitability for the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), and potential co-occurrence with major host crops under climate change scenarios". Climatic Change. 161 (4): 555–566. Bibcode:2020ClCh..161..555Z. doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02722-5. ISSN 1573-1480. S2CID 218573386.
5. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s Bezner Kerr, R., T. Hasegawa, R. Lasco, I. Bhatt, D. Deryng, A. Farrell, H. Gurney-Smith, H. Ju, S. Lluch-Cota, F. Meza, G. Nelson, H. Neufeldt, and P. Thornton, 2022: Chapter 5: Food, Fibre, and Other Ecosystem Products. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.007.
6. ^ a b Gaupp, Franziska; Hall, Jim; Mitchell, Dann; Dadson, Simon (23 May 2019). "Increasing risks of multiple breadbasket failure under 1.5 and 2 °C global warming" (PDF). Agricultural Systems. 175: 34–45. Bibcode:2019AgSys.175...34G. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2019.05.010. hdl:1983/d5df7241-3564-43de-b9ef-31a103c7a46d. S2CID 182687026.
7. ^ a b Kornhuber, Kai; Lesk, Corey; Schleussner, Carl F.; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Pfleiderer, Peter; Horton, Radley M. (4 July 2023). "Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections". Nature Communications. 14 (1): 3528. Bibcode:2023NatCo..14.3528K. doi:10.1038/s41467-023-38906-7. PMC 10319847. PMID 37402712.
8. ^ a b Ainsworth, Elizabeth A.; Long, Stephen P. (2 November 2020). "30 years of free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE): What have we learned about future crop productivity and its potential for adaptation?". Global Change Biology. 27 (1): 27–49. doi:10.1111/gcb.15375. PMID 33135850. S2CID 226235328.
9. ^ a b Biemans H, Siderius C, Lutz AF, Nepal S, Ahmad B, Hassan T, et al. (July 2019). "Importance of snow and glacier meltwater for agriculture on the Indo-Gangetic Plain". Nature Sustainability. 2 (7): 594–601. Bibcode:2019NatSu...2..594B. doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0305-3. ISSN 2398-9629. S2CID 199110415.
10. ^ a b c d e f g Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B.; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe; Durand, Jean-Louis; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Janssens, Ivan A.; Li, Tao; Lin, Erda; Liu, Qiang; Martre, Pierre; Müller, Christoph; Peng, Shushi; Peñuelas, Josep; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Liu, Zhuo; Zhu, Yan; Zhu, Zaichun; Asseng, Senthold (15 August 2017). "Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 114 (35): 9326–9331. Bibcode:2017PNAS..114.9326Z. doi:10.1073/pnas.1701762114. PMC 5584412. PMID 28811375.
11. ^ a b c van Dijk, Michiel; Morley, Tom; Rau, Marie Luise; Saghai, Yashar (21 July 2021). "A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 2010–2050". Nature Food. 4 (7): 416–426. doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00322-9. PMID 37117684.
12. ^ a b FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (2021). The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2021. Transforming food systems for food security, improved nutrition and affordable healthy diets for all, In brief (Report). FAO. doi:10.4060/cb5409en. ISBN 978-92-5-134634-1.
13. ^ a b c Janssens, Charlotte; Havlík, Petr; Krisztin, Tamás; Baker, Justin; Frank, Stefan; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Leclère, David; Ohrel, Sara; Ragnauth, Shaun; Schmid, Erwin; Valin, Hugo; Van Lipzig, Nicole; Maertens, Miet (20 July 2020). "Global hunger and climate change adaptation through international trade". Nature Climate Change. 10 (9): 829–835. Bibcode:2020NatCC..10..829J. doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0847-4. PMC 7869491. PMID 33564324.
14. ^ a b Hasegawa, Tomoko; Sakurai, Gen; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Masui, Toshihiko (9 August 2021). "Extreme climate events increase risk of global food insecurity and adaptation needs". Nature Food. 2 (8): 587–595. doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00335-4. PMID 37118168. S2CID 238695572.
15. ^ a b Schewe, Jacob; Gosling, Simon N.; Reyer, Christopher; Zhao, Fang; Ciais, Philippe; Elliott, Joshua; Francois, Louis; Huber, Veronika; Lotze, Heike K.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Vautard, Robert; Wada, Yoshihide; Breuer, Lutz; Büchner, Matthias; Carozza, David A.; Chang, Jinfeng; Coll, Marta; Deryng, Delphine; de Wit, Allard; Eddy, Tyler D.; Folberth, Christian; Frieler, Katja; Friend, Andrew D.; Gerten, Dieter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Hanasaki, Naota; Ito, Akihiko; Khabarov, Nikolay; Kim, Hyungjun; Lawrence, Peter; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Müller, Christoph; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Orth, René; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pokhrel, Yadu; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Sakurai, Gen; Satoh, Yusuke; Schmid, Erwin; Stacke, Tobias; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Steinkamp, Jörg; Tang, Qiuhong; Tian, Hanqin; Tittensor, Derek P.; Volkholz, Jan; Wang, Xuhui; Warszawski, Lila (1 March 2019). "State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes". Nature Communications. 10 (1): 1005. Bibcode:2019NatCo..10.1005S. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6. PMC 6397256. PMID 30824763.
16. ^ a b c Kummu, Matti; Heino, Matias; Taka, Maija; Varis, Olli; Viviroli, Daniel (21 May 2021). "Climate change risks pushing one-third of global food production outside the safe climatic space". One Earth. 4 (5): 720–729. Bibcode:2021OEart...4..720K. doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2021.04.017. PMC 8158176. PMID 34056573.
17. ^ a b Mycoo, M., M. Wairiu, D. Campbell, V. Duvat, Y. Golbuu, S. Maharaj, J. Nalau, P. Nunn, J. Pinnegar, and O. Warrick, 2022: Chapter 3: Mitigation pathways compatible with long-term goals. In Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change [ K. Riahi, R.Schaeffer, J.Arango, K. Calvin, C. Guivarch, T. Hasegawa, K. Jiang, E. Kriegler, R. Matthews, G. P. Peters, A. Rao, S. Robertson, A. M. Sebbit, J. Steinberger, M. Tavoni, D. P. van Vuuren]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 463–464 |doi= 10.1017/9781009157926.005
18. ^ a b Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Beattie, Andrew; Ceballos, Gerardo; Crist, Eileen; Diamond, Joan; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Ehrlich, Anne H.; Harte, John; Harte, Mary Ellen; Pyke, Graham; Raven, Peter H.; Ripple, William J.; Saltré, Frédérik; Turnbull, Christine; Wackernagel, Mathis; Blumstein, Daniel T. (2021). "Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future". Frontiers in Conservation Science. 1. doi:10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419.
19. ^ a b Brás TA, Seixas J, Carvalhais N, Jägermeyr J (18 March 2021). "Severity of drought and heatwave crop losses tripled over the last five decades in Europe". Environmental Research Letters. 16 (6): 065012. Bibcode:2021ERL....16f5012B. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abf004. hdl:10362/144590. ISSN 1748-9326. Available under CC BY 4.0.
20. ^ Burroughs, Charles H; Montes, Christopher M; Moller, Christopher A; Mitchell, Noah G; Michael, Anne Marie; Peng, Bin; Kimm, Hyungsuk; Pederson, Taylor L; Lipka, Alexander E; Bernacchi, Carl J; Guan, Kaiyu; Ainsworth, Elizabeth A (13 March 2023). "Reductions in leaf area index, pod production, seed size, and harvest index drive yield loss to high temperatures in soybean". Journal of Experimental Botany. 74 (5): 1629–1641. doi:10.1093/jxb/erac503. PMID 36571807.
21. ^ a b Tubiello FN, Soussana JF, Howden SM (December 2007). "Crop and pasture response to climate change". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 104 (50): 19686–19690. Bibcode:2007PNAS..10419686T. doi:10.1073/pnas.0701728104. PMC 2148358. PMID 18077401.
22. ^ Pradhan, Prajal; Seydewitz, Tobias; Zhou, Bin; Lüdeke, Matthias K. B.; Kropp, Juergen P. (18 July 2022). "Climate extremes are becoming more frequent, co-occurring, and persistent in Europe". Anthropocene Science. 1 (2): 264–277. Bibcode:2022AnthS...1..264P. doi:10.1007/s44177-022-00022-4.
23. ^ "Europe's heat and drought crop losses tripled in 50 years: study". phys.org. Retrieved 19 April 2021.
24. ^ Berwyn B (28 July 1018). "This Summer's Heat Waves Could Be the Strongest Climate Signal Yet". No. Climate change. Inside Climate News. Retrieved 9 August 2018.
25. ^ Higgins E (29 May 2019). "Climate Crisis Brings Historic Delay to Planting Season, Pressuring Farmers and Food Prices". Ecowatch. Retrieved 30 May 2019.
26. ^ Hope, Alan (16 July 2021). "Heavy rainfall and flash floods: another catastrophe for farmers?". The Brussels Times. Brussels. Archived from the original on 16 July 2021. Retrieved 16 July 2021.
27. ^ a b Fu, Jin; Jian, Yiwei; Wang, Xuhui; Li, Laurent; Ciais, Philippe; Zscheischler, Jakob; Wang, Yin; Tang, Yanhong; Müller, Christoph; Webber, Heidi; Yang, Bo; Wu, Yali; Wang, Qihui; Cui, Xiaoqing; Huang, Weichen; Liu, Yongqiang; Zhao, Pengjun; Piao, Shilong; Zhou, Feng (4 May 2023). "Extreme rainfall reduces one-twelfth of China's rice yield over the last two decades" (PDF). Nature Food. 4 (5): 416–426. doi:10.1038/s43016-023-00753-6. PMID 37142747. S2CID 258508344.
28. ^ a b c d Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press. 11 February 2011. doi:10.17226/12877. ISBN 978-0-309-15176-4.
29. ^ "Corn and Soybean Temperature Response". Archived from the original on 12 May 2013. Retrieved 30 May 2013.
30. ^ a b c Connor JD, Schwabe K, King D, Knapp K (May 2012). "Irrigated agriculture and climate change: The influence of water supply variability and salinity on adaptation". Ecological Economics. 77: 149–157. Bibcode:2012EcoEc..77..149C. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.02.021.
31. ^ a b Tubiello FN, Rosenzweig C (2008). "Developing climate change impact metrics for agriculture". The Integrated Assessment Journal. 8 (1): 165–184.
32. ^ a b c d e f g h Epstein P, Ferber D (2011). Changing Planet, Changing Health: How the Climate Crisis Threatens Our Health and what We Can Do about it. University of California Press. ISBN 978-0-520-26909-5.[page needed]
33. ^ Thomson LJ, Macfadyen S, Hoffmann AA (March 2010). "Predicting the effects of climate change on natural enemies of agricultural pests". Biological Control. 52 (3): 296–306. Bibcode:2010BiolC..52..296T. doi:10.1016/j.biocontrol.2009.01.022.
34. ^ "Earliest Blooms Recorded in U.S. Due to Global Warming". National Geographic News. 17 January 2013. Archived from the original on 22 September 2019. Retrieved 28 November 2020.
35. ^ a b Kulshreshtha SN (March 2011). "Climate Change, Prairie Agriculture and Prairie Economy: The new normal". Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics. 59 (1): 19–44. Bibcode:2011CaJAE..59...19K. doi:10.1111/j.1744-7976.2010.01211.x.
36. ^ a b Lemmen DS, Warren FJ, eds. (2004). Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: A Canadian Perspective (PDF) (Report). Natural Resources Canada. ISBN 0-662-33123-0.[page needed]
37. ^ Meng Q, Hou P, Lobell DB, Wang H, Cui Z, Zhang F, Chen X (2013). "The benefits of recent warming for maize production in high latitude China". Climatic Change. 122 (1–2): 341–349. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-1009-8. hdl:10.1007/s10584-013-1009-8. S2CID 53989985.
38. ^ a b Lallo, Cicero H. O.; Cohen, Jane; Rankine, Dale; Taylor, Michael; Cambell, Jayaka; Stephenson, Tannecia (24 May 2018). "Characterizing heat stress on livestock using the temperature humidity index (THI)—prospects for a warmer Caribbean". Regional Environmental Change. 18 (8): 2329–2340. Bibcode:2018REnvC..18.2329L. doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1359-x. S2CID 158167267.
39. ^ a b c d e f g h Kerr R.B., Hasegawa T., Lasco R., Bhatt I., Deryng D., Farrell A., Gurney-Smith H., Ju H., Lluch-Cota S., Meza F., Nelson G., Neufeldt H., Thornton P., 2022: Chapter 5: Food, Fibre and Other Ecosystem Products. In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke,V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US, pp. 1457–1579 |doi=10.1017/9781009325844.012
40. ^ a b Zhang, Jintao; You, Qinglong; Ren, Guoyu; Ullah, Safi; Normatov, Inom; Chen, Deliang (24 January 2023). "Inequality of Global Thermal Comfort Conditions Changes in a Warmer World". Earth's Future. 11 (2): e2022EF003109. Bibcode:2023EaFut..1103109Z. doi:10.1029/2022EF003109. S2CID 256256647.
41. ^ a b Lacetera, Nicola (3 January 2019). "Impact of climate change on animal health and welfare". Animal Frontiers. 9 (1): 26–31. doi:10.1093/af/vfy030. ISSN 2160-6056. PMC 6951873. PMID 32002236.
42. ^ Mikovits, Christian; Zollitsch, Werner; Hörtenhuber, Stefan J.; Baumgartner, Johannes; Niebuhr, Knut; Piringer, Martin; Anders, Ivonne; Andre, Konrad; Hennig-Pauka, Isabel; Schönhart, Martin; Schauberger, Günther (22 January 2019). "Impacts of global warming on confined livestock systems for growing-fattening pigs: simulation of heat stress for 1981 to 2017 in Central Europe". International Journal of Biometeorology. 63 (2): 221–230. Bibcode:2019IJBm...63..221M. doi:10.1007/s00484-018-01655-0. PMID 30671619. S2CID 58951606.
43. ^ a b Ficklin, Darren L.; Null, Sarah E.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Novick, Kimberly A.; Myers, Daniel T. (9 March 2022). "Hydrological Intensification Will Increase the Complexity of Water Resource Management". Earth's Future. 10 (3): e2021EF002487. Bibcode:2022EaFut..1002487F. doi:10.1029/2021EF002487. S2CID 247371100.
44. ^ Brown, Oliver L. I. (August 1951). "The Clausius-Clapeyron equation". Journal of Chemical Education. 28 (8): 428. Bibcode:1951JChEd..28..428B. doi:10.1021/ed028p428.
45. ^ Trenberth, Kevin E.; Smith, Lesley; Qian, Taotao; Dai, Aiguo; Fasullo, John (1 August 2007). "Estimates of the Global Water Budget and Its Annual Cycle Using Observational and Model Data". Journal of Hydrometeorology. 8 (4): 758–769. Bibcode:2007JHyMe...8..758T. doi:10.1175/jhm600.1. S2CID 26750545.
46. ^ a b Schuur, Edward A.G.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Commane, Roisin; Ernakovich, Jessica; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Hugelius, Gustaf; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Miriam; Koven, Charlie; Leshyk, Victor; Lawrence, David; Loranty, Michael M.; Mauritz, Marguerite; Olefeldt, David; Natali, Susan; Rodenhizer, Heidi; Salmon, Verity; Schädel, Christina; Strauss, Jens; Treat, Claire; Turetsky, Merritt (2022). "Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 47: 343–371. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847. "Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement..."
47. ^ a b Phiddian, Ellen (5 April 2022). "Explainer: IPCC Scenarios". Cosmos. Retrieved 30 September 2023. ""The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C."
48. ^ Dai A (2011). "Drought under global warming: A review". Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. 2: 45–65. Bibcode:2011AGUFM.H42G..01D. doi:10.1002/wcc.81. S2CID 16830646.
49. ^ "Water scarcity predicted to worsen in more than 80% of croplands globally this century". American Geophysical Union. Retrieved 16 May 2022.
50. ^ Liu, Xingcai; Liu, Wenfeng; Tang, Qiuhong; Liu, Bo; Wada, Yoshihide; Yang, Hong (April 2022). "Global Agricultural Water Scarcity Assessment Incorporating Blue and Green Water Availability Under Future Climate Change". Earth's Future. 10 (4). Bibcode:2022EaFut..1002567L. doi:10.1029/2021EF002567. S2CID 248398232.
51. ^ Mishra AK, Singh VP (2011). "Drought modeling – A review". Journal of Hydrology. 403 (1–2): 157–175. Bibcode:2011JHyd..403..157M. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.03.049.
52. ^ Ding Y, Hayes MJ, Widhalm M (2011). "Measuring economic impacts of drought: A review and discussion". Disaster Prevention and Management. 20 (4): 434–446. Bibcode:2011DisPM..20..434D. doi:10.1108/09653561111161752.
53. ^ a b Hertel TW, Rosch SD (June 2010). "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Poverty" (PDF). Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. 32 (3): 355–385. doi:10.1093/aepp/ppq016. hdl:10986/3949. S2CID 55848822.
54. ^ a b Bolch, Tobias; Shea, Joseph M.; Liu, Shiyin; Azam, Farooq M.; Gao, Yang; Gruber, Stephan; Immerzeel, Walter W.; Kulkarni, Anil; Li, Huilin; Tahir, Adnan A.; Zhang, Guoqing; Zhang, Yinsheng (5 January 2019). "Status and Change of the Cryosphere in the Extended Hindu Kush Himalaya Region". The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment. pp. 209–255. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1_7. ISBN 978-3-319-92287-4. S2CID 134814572.
55. ^ "Glaciers Are Melting Faster Than Expected, UN Reports". ScienceDaily.
56. ^ Kraaijenbrink PD, Bierkens MF, Lutz AF, Immerzeel WW (September 2017). "Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia's glaciers". Nature. 549 (7671): 257–260. Bibcode:2017Natur.549..257K. doi:10.1038/nature23878. PMID 28905897. S2CID 4398745.
57. ^ "Big melt threatens millions, says UN". People & the Planet. Archived from the original on 19 February 2008.
58. ^ "Ganges, Indus may not survive: climatologists". Rediff.com India Limited. 24 July 2007.
59. ^ "Himalaya glaciers melt unnoticed". 10 November 2004 - via bbc.co.uk.
60. ^ Krishnan, Raghavan; Shrestha, Arun Bhakta; Ren, Guoyu; Rajbhandari, Rupak; Saeed, Sajjad; Sanjay, Jayanarayanan; Syed, Md. Abu.; Vellore, Ramesh; Xu, Ying; You, Qinglong; Ren, Yuyu (5 January 2019). "Unravelling Climate Change in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: Rapid Warming in the Mountains and Increasing Extremes". The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment. pp. 57–97. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1_3. ISBN 978-3-319-92287-4. S2CID 134572569.
61. ^ Scott, Christopher A.; Zhang, Fan; Mukherji, Aditi; Immerzeel, Walter; Mustafa, Daanish; Bharati, Luna (5 January 2019). "Water in the Hindu Kush Himalaya". The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment. pp. 257–299. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1_8. ISBN 978-3-319-92287-4. S2CID 133800578.
62. ^ Hille K (3 May 2016). "Rising Carbon Dioxide Levels Will Help and Hurt Crops". NASA. Retrieved 29 November 2018.
63. ^ a b Chen C, Riley WJ, Prentice IC, Keenan TF (March 2022). "CO2 fertilization of terrestrial photosynthesis inferred from site to global scales". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 119 (10): e2115627119. Bibcode:2022PNAS..11915627C. doi:10.1073/pnas.2115627119. PMC 8915860. PMID 35238668.
64. ^ Ueyama M, Ichii K, Kobayashi H, Kumagai TO, Beringer J, Merbold L, et al. (17 July 2020). "Inferring CO2 fertilization effect based on global monitoring land-atmosphere exchange with a theoretical model". Environmental Research Letters. 15 (8): 084009. Bibcode:2020ERL....15h4009U. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab79e5. ISSN 1748-9326.
65. ^ a b Tharammal T, Bala G, Narayanappa D, Nemani R (April 2019). "Potential roles of CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, climate change, and land use and land cover change on the global terrestrial carbon uptake in the twenty-first century". Climate Dynamics. 52 (7–8): 4393–4406. Bibcode:2019ClDy...52.4393T. doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4388-8. ISSN 0930-7575. S2CID 134286531.
66. ^ a b c d Hararuk O, Campbell EM, Antos JA, Parish R (December 2018). "Tree rings provide no evidence of a CO2 fertilization effect in old-growth subalpine forests of western Canada". Global Change Biology. 25 (4): 1222–1234. Bibcode:2019GCBio..25.1222H. doi:10.1111/gcb.14561. PMID 30588740.
67. ^ Cartwright J (16 August 2013). "How does carbon fertilization affect crop yield?". environmentalresearchweb. Environmental Research Letters. Archived from the original on 27 June 2018. Retrieved 3 October 2016.
68. ^ Smith WK, Reed SC, Cleveland CC, Ballantyne AP, Anderegg WR, Wieder WR, et al. (March 2016). "Large divergence of satellite and Earth system model estimates of global terrestrial CO2 fertilization". Nature Climate Change. 6 (3): 306–310. Bibcode:2016NatCC...6..306K. doi:10.1038/nclimate2879. ISSN 1758-678X.
69. ^ Bastos A, Ciais P, Chevallier F, Rödenbeck C, Ballantyne AP, Maignan F, Yin Y, Fernández-Martínez M, Friedlingstein P, Peñuelas J, Piao SL (7 October 2019). "Contrasting effects of CO2 fertilization, land-use change and warming on seasonal amplitude of Northern Hemisphere CO2 exchange". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 19 (19): 12361–12375. Bibcode:2019ACP....1912361B. doi:10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019. ISSN 1680-7324.
70. ^ Li Q, Lu X, Wang Y, Huang X, Cox PM, Luo Y (November 2018). "Leaf Area Index identified as a major source of variability in modelled CO2 fertilization". Biogeosciences. 15 (22): 6909–6925. doi:10.5194/bg-2018-213.
71. ^ Albani M, Medvigy D, Hurtt GC, Moorcroft PR (December 2006). "The contributions of land-use change, CO2 fertilization, and climate variability to the Eastern US carbon sink: Partitioning of the Eastern US Carbon Sink". Global Change Biology. 12 (12): 2370–2390. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01254.x. S2CID 2861520.2+fertilization,+and+climate+variability+to+the+Eastern+US+carbon+sink:+Partitioning+of+the+Eastern+US+Carbon+Sink&rft.volume=12&rft.issue=12&rft.pages=2370-2390&rft.date=2006-12&rft_id=info:doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01254.x&rft_id=https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:2861520#id-name=S2CID&rft.aulast=Albani&rft.aufirst=M&rft.au=Medvigy,+D&rft.au=Hurtt,+GC&rft.au=Moorcroft,+PR&rfr_id=info:sid/en.wikipedia.org:Effects+of+climate+change+on+agriculture" class="Z3988">
72. ^ Wang S, Zhang Y, Ju W, Chen JM, Ciais P, Cescatti A, et al. (December 2020). "Recent global decline of CO2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis". Science. 370 (6522): 1295–1300. Bibcode:2020Sci...370.1295W. doi:10.1126/science.abb7772. hdl:10067/1754050151162165141. PMID 33303610. S2CID 228084631.
73. ^ Sugden AM (11 December 2020). Funk M (ed.). "A decline in the carbon fertilization effect". Science. 370 (6522): 1286.5–1287. Bibcode:2020Sci...370S1286S. doi:10.1126/science.370.6522.1286-e. S2CID 230526366.
74. ^ Kirschbaum MU (January 2011). "Does enhanced photosynthesis enhance growth? Lessons learned from CO2 enrichment studies". Plant Physiology. 155 (1): 117–24. doi:10.1104/pp.110.166819. PMC 3075783. PMID 21088226.2+enrichment+studies&rft.volume=155&rft.issue=1&rft.pages=117-24&rft.date=2011-01&rft_id=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3075783#id-name=PMC&rft_id=info:pmid/21088226&rft_id=info:doi/10.1104/pp.110.166819&rft.aulast=Kirschbaum&rft.aufirst=MU&rft_id=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3075783&rfr_id=info:sid/en.wikipedia.org:Effects+of+climate+change+on+agriculture" class="Z3988">
75. ^ "Global Green Up Slows Warming". earthobservatory.nasa.gov. 18 February 2020. Retrieved 27 December 2020.
76. ^ Tabor A (8 February 2019). "Human Activity in China and India Dominates the Greening of Earth". NASA. Retrieved 27 December 2020.
77. ^ Zhu Z, Piao S, Myneni RB, Huang M, Zeng Z, Canadell JG, et al. (1 August 2016). "Greening of the Earth and its drivers". Nature Climate Change. 6 (8): 791–795. Bibcode:2016NatCC...6..791Z. doi:10.1038/nclimate3004. S2CID 7980894.
78. ^ Hille K (25 April 2016). "Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds". NASA. Retrieved 27 December 2020.
79. ^ "If you're looking for good news about climate change, this is about the best there is right now". Washington Post. Retrieved 11 November 2016.
80. ^ a b Cline WR (March 2008). "Global Warming and Agriculture". Finance and Development | F&D. Retrieved 15 March 2022.
81. ^ Poorter H. "Interspecific variation in the growth response of plants to an elevated ambient CO2 concentration" (PDF).2+concentration&rft.aulast=Poorter&rft.aufirst=H&rft_id=http://www.science.poorter.eu/1993_poorter_vegetatio.pdf&rfr_id=info:sid/en.wikipedia.org:Effects+of+climate+change+on+agriculture" class="Z3988">
82. ^ Wong SC (December 1979). "Elevated Partial Pressure of CO2 and Plant Growth". Oecologia. 44 (1): 68–74. Bibcode:1979Oecol..44...68W. doi:10.1007/BF00346400. PMID 28310466. S2CID 24541633.2+and+Plant+Growth&rft.volume=44&rft.issue=1&rft.pages=68-74&rft.date=1979-12&rft_id=info:doi/10.1007/BF00346400&rft_id=https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:24541633#id-name=S2CID&rft_id=info:pmid/28310466&rft_id=info:bibcode/1979Oecol..44...68W&rft.aulast=Wong&rft.aufirst=SC&rfr_id=info:sid/en.wikipedia.org:Effects+of+climate+change+on+agriculture" class="Z3988">
83. ^ Ainsworth L (February 2005). "What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2". New Phytol. 165 (2): 351–71. doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2004.01224.x. PMID 15720649.2+enrichment+(FACE)?+A+meta-analytic+review+of+the+responses+of+photosynthesis,+canopy+properties+and+plant+production+to+rising+CO2.&rft.volume=165&rft.issue=2&rft.pages=351-71&rft.date=2005-02&rft_id=info:doi/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2004.01224.x&rft_id=info:pmid/15720649&rft.aulast=Ainsworth&rft.aufirst=L&rft_id=https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fj.1469-8137.2004.01224.x&rfr_id=info:sid/en.wikipedia.org:Effects+of+climate+change+on+agriculture" class="Z3988">
84. ^ Zhu Z, Piao S, Myneni RB, Huang M, Zeng Z, Canadell JG, et al. (August 2016). "Greening of the Earth and its drivers". Nature Climate Change. 6 (8): 791–95. Bibcode:2016NatCC...6..791Z. doi:10.1038/nclimate3004. ISSN 1758-6798. S2CID 7980894. "We show a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing LAI (browning). Factorial simulations with multiple global ecosystem models suggest that CO2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend"
85. ^ Hille K (25 April 2016). "Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds". NASA. Retrieved 4 February 2018.
86. ^ a b c d e Loladze I (May 2014). "Hidden shift of the ionome of plants exposed to elevated CO2 depletes minerals at the base of human nutrition". eLife. 3 (9): e02245. doi:10.7554/eLife.02245. PMC 4034684. PMID 24867639.
87. ^ a b c d Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, Jae; O'Neill, Brian C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Bauer, Nico; Calvin, Katherine; Dellink, Rob; Fricko, Oliver; Lutz, Wolfgang; Popp, Alexander; Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo; KC, Samir; Leimbach, Marian; Jiang, Leiwen; Kram, Tom; Rao, Shilpa; Emmerling, Johannes; Ebi, Kristie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlík, Petr; Humpenoder, Florian; Da Silva, Lara Aleluia; Smith, Steve; Stehfest, Elke; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Gernaat, David; Masui, Toshihiko; Rogelj, Joeri; Strefler, Jessica; Drouet, Laurent; Krey, Volker; Luderer, Gunnar; Harmsen, Mathijs; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Baumstark, Lavinia; Doelman, Johnathan C.; Kainuma, Mikiko; Klimont, Zbigniew; Marangoni, Giacomo; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Obersteiner, Michael; Tabeau, Andrzej; Tavoni, Massimo (1 February 2017). "The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview". Global Environmental Change. 42 (9): 153–168. Bibcode:2017GEC....42..153R. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009. hdl:10044/1/78069.
88. ^ a b c d Mbow C, Rosenzweig C, Barioni LG, Benton TG, Herrero M, Krishnapillai M, et al. (2019). "Chapter 5: Food Security" (PDF). In Shukla PR, Skea J, Calvo Buendia E, Masson-Delmotte V, Pörtner HO, Roberts DC, et al. (eds.). Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems.
89. ^ Milius S (13 December 2017). "Worries grow that climate change will quietly steal nutrients from major food crops". Science News. Retrieved 21 January 2018.
90. ^ Smith MR, Myers SS (27 August 2018). "Impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on global human nutrition". Nature Climate Change. 8 (9): 834–839. Bibcode:2018NatCC...8..834S. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0253-3. ISSN 1758-678X. S2CID 91727337.
91. ^ Davis N (27 August 2018). "Climate change will make hundreds of millions more people nutrient deficient". The Guardian. Retrieved 29 August 2018.
92. ^ Loladze I (2002). "Rising atmospheric CO2 and human nutrition: toward globally imbalanced plant stoichiometry?". Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 17 (10): 457–461. doi:10.1016/S0169-5347(02)02587-9. S2CID 16074723.
93. ^ Zhu C, Kobayashi K, Loladze I, Zhu J, Jiang Q, Xu X, et al. (May 2018). "Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels this century will alter the protein, micronutrients, and vitamin content of rice grains with potential health consequences for the poorest rice-dependent countries". Science Advances. 4 (5): eaaq1012. Bibcode:2018SciA....4.1012Z. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaq1012. PMC 5966189. PMID 29806023.
94. ^ Milius S (23 May 2018). "As CO2 increases, rice loses B vitamins and other nutrients". Sciencenews.org. Retrieved 2 July 2018.
95. ^ Coviella CE, Trumble JT (1999). "Effects of Elevated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide on Insect-Plant Interactions". Conservation Biology. 13 (4): 700–712. Bibcode:1999ConBi..13..700C. doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.1999.98267.x. JSTOR 2641685. S2CID 52262618.
96. ^ Taub DR, Miller B, Allen H (2008). "Effects of elevated CO2 on the protein concentration of food crops: a meta-analysis". Global Change Biology. 14 (3): 565–575. Bibcode:2008GCBio..14..565T. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01511.x.2+on+the+protein+concentration+of+food+crops:+a+meta-analysis&rft.volume=14&rft.issue=3&rft.pages=565-575&rft.date=2008&rft_id=info:doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01511.x&rft_id=info:bibcode/2008GCBio..14..565T&rft.aulast=Taub&rft.aufirst=DR&rft.au=Miller,+B&rft.au=Allen,+H&rft_id=https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fj.1365-2486.2007.01511.x&rfr_id=info:sid/en.wikipedia.org:Effects+of+climate+change+on+agriculture" class="Z3988">
97. ^ Myers SS, Zanobetti A, Kloog I, Huybers P, Leakey AD, Bloom AJ, et al. (June 2014). "Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition". Nature. 510 (7503): 139–42. Bibcode:2014Natur.510..139M. doi:10.1038/nature13179. PMC 4810679. PMID 24805231.2+threatens+human+nutrition&rft.volume=510&rft.issue=7503&rft.pages=139-42&rft.date=2014-06&rft_id=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4810679#id-name=PMC&rft_id=info:pmid/24805231&rft_id=info:doi/10.1038/nature13179&rft_id=info:bibcode/2014Natur.510..139M&rft.aulast=Myers&rft.aufirst=SS&rft.au=Zanobetti,+A&rft.au=Kloog,+I&rft.au=Huybers,+P&rft.au=Leakey,+AD&rft.au=Bloom,+AJ&rft.au=Carlisle,+E&rft.au=Dietterich,+LH&rft.au=Fitzgerald,+G&rft.au=Hasegawa,+T&rft.au=Holbrook,+NM&rft.au=Nelson,+RL&rft.au=Ottman,+MJ&rft.au=Raboy,+V&rft.au=Sakai,+H&rft.au=Sartor,+KA&rft.au=Schwartz,+J&rft.au=Seneweera,+S&rft.au=Tausz,+M&rft.au=Usui,+Y&rft_id=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4810679&rfr_id=info:sid/en.wikipedia.org:Effects+of+climate+change+on+agriculture" class="Z3988">
98. ^ a b Jasechko, Scott J.; Perrone, Debra; Seybold, Hansjörg; Fan, Ying; Kirchner, James W. (26 June 2020). "Groundwater level observations in 250,000 coastal US wells reveal scope of potential seawater intrusion". Nature Communications. 11 (1): 3229. Bibcode:2020NatCo..11.3229J. doi:10.1038/s41467-020-17038-2. PMC 7319989. PMID 32591535.
99. ^ Doetterl S, Van Oost K, Six J (1 May 2012). "Towards constraining the magnitude of global agricultural sediment and soil organic carbon fluxes". Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. 37 (6): 642–655. Bibcode:2012ESPL...37..642D. doi:10.1002/esp.3198. hdl:2078.1/123112. ISSN 1096-9837. S2CID 129147849.
100. ^ Naylor D, Sadler N, Bhattacharjee A, Graham EB, Anderton CR, McClure R, et al. (2020). "Soil Microbiomes Under Climate Change and Implications for Carbon Cycling". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 45: 29–59. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012320-082720.
101. ^ Fox-Kemper B, Hewitt HT, Xiao C, et al. (2021). "Chapter 9: Ocean, Cryosphere, and Sea Level Change" (PDF). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate. Cambridge University Press.
102. ^ Wassmann R (July–September 2007). "Coping With Climate Change" (PDF). Rice Today. IRRI: 10–15. Archived from the original (PDF) on 27 March 2009. Retrieved 7 October 2009.
103. ^ German Research Indicates Warming in Siberia, Global Warming Today, Global Warming Today
104. ^ Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring 5Roshydromet), Strategic Forecast of Climate Change in the Russian Federation 2010–2015 and Its Impact on Sectors of the Russian Economy (Moscow 2005)
105. ^ Kokorin AO, Gritsevich IG (2007). "The Danger of Climate Change for Russia – Expected Losses and Recommendations" (PDF). Russian Analytical Digest (23): 2–4.
106. ^ Pearce F (3 October 2003). "Global warming 'will hurt Russia'". New Scientist.
107. ^ Anisimov OA, et al. (2007). "Chapter 15: Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic): Executive summary". In Parry, ML, et al. (eds.). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. Archived from the original on 2 November 2018. Retrieved 6 March 2022.
108. ^ a b "Global Warming Could Trigger Insect Population Boom". Live Science. Retrieved 2 May 2017.
109. ^ a b c d e Luck J, Spackman M, Freeman A, Trebicki P, Griffiths W, Finlay K, Chakraborty S (10 January 2011). "Climate change and diseases of food crops". Plant Pathology. 60 (1). British Society for Plant Pathology (Wiley-Blackwell): 113–121. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02414.x. ISSN 0032-0862.
110. ^ a b c Rodenburg J, Meinke H, Johnson DE (August 2011). "Challenges for weed management in African rice systems in a changing climate". The Journal of Agricultural Science (Submitted manuscript). 149 (4): 427–435. doi:10.1017/S0021859611000207. S2CID 5336023.
111. ^ Warren, R.; Price, J.; Graham, E.; Forstenhaeusler, N.; VanDerWal, J. (18 May 2018). "The projected effect on insects, vertebrates, and plants of limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C". Science. 360 (6390): 791–795. doi:10.1126/science.aar3646. PMID 29773751. S2CID 21722550.
112. ^ "ECPA". www.ecpa.eu. Archived from the original on 30 December 2020. Retrieved 28 November 2020.
113. ^ Soroye, Peter; Newbold, Tim; Kerr, Jeremy (7 February 2020). "Climate change contributes to widespread declines among bumble bees across continents". Science. 367 (6478): 685–688. Bibcode:2020Sci...367..685S. doi:10.1126/science.aax8591. PMID 32029628.
114. ^ "Bumblebees are disappearing at rates 'consistent with mass extinction'". USA Today. Retrieved 3 November 2020.
115. ^ Stange E (November 2010). "Climate Change Impact: Insects". eLS. Norwegian Institute for Nature Research. doi:10.1002/9780470015902.a0022555. ISBN 9780470016176.
116. ^ a b c d Haverkort AJ, Verhagen A (October 2008). "Climate Change and Its Repercussions for the Potato Supply Chain". Potato Research. 51 (3–4): 223–237. doi:10.1007/s11540-008-9107-0. S2CID 22794078.
117. ^ Sgrò CM, Terblanche JS, Hoffmann AA (11 March 2016). "What Can Plasticity Contribute to Insect Responses to Climate Change?". Annual Review of Entomology. 61 (1). Annual Reviews: 433–451. doi:10.1146/annurev-ento-010715-023859. PMID 26667379.
118. ^ "Locust swarms and climate change". UN Environment. 6 February 2020. Retrieved 29 November 2020.
119. ^ "Real-time evaluation of FAO's response to desert locust upsurge". www.fao.org. Archived from the original on 2 October 2022. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
120. ^ a b "Early Summer Weed Control" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 11 September 2017. Retrieved 6 March 2022.
121. ^ a b c Chakraborty S, Newton AC (10 January 2011). "Climate change, plant diseases and food security: an overview". Plant Pathology. 60 (1): 2–14. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02411.x.
122. ^ Czajkowski R. "Why is Dickeya spp. (syn. Erwinia chrysanthemi) taking over? The ecology of a blackleg pathogen" (PDF). Retrieved 7 November 2012.
123. ^ a b Coakley SM, Scherm H, Chakraborty S (September 1999). "Climate change and plant disease management". Annual Review of Phytopathology. 37: 399–426. doi:10.1146/annurev.phyto.37.1.399. PMID 11701829.
124. ^ Forbes GA. "Implications for a warmer, wetter world on the late blight pathogen: How CIP efforts can reduce risk for low-input potato farmers" (PDF). CIP. Archived from the original (PDF) on 5 January 2011. Retrieved 7 November 2012.
125. ^ Coakley SM, Scherm H, Chakraborty S (September 1999). "Climate change and plant disease management". Annual Review of Phytopathology. 37 (1): 399–426. doi:10.1146/annurev.phyto.37.1.399. PMID 11701829.
126. ^ Chakraborty S, Pangga IB (2004). "Plant disease and climate change". In Gillings M, Holmes A (eds.). [chapter-https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780203506608-14/plant-disease-climate-change-chakraborty-pangga Plant Microbiology]. Taylor & Francis. doi:10.4324/9780203506608. ISBN 978-0-203-50660-8. Retrieved 1 April 2022.
127. ^ Pandey SK. "Potato Research Priorities in Asia and the Pacific Region". FAO. Retrieved 7 November 2012.
128. ^ a b c d Ray DK, West PC, Clark M, Gerber JS, Prishchepov AV, Chatterjee S (2019). Jung YH (ed.). "Climate change has likely already affected global food production". PLOS ONE. 14 (5): e0217148. Bibcode:2019PLoSO..1417148R. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0217148. PMC 6544233. PMID 31150427.
129. ^ IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, E. Calvo Buendia, V. Masson-Delmotte, H.- O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, P. Zhai, R. Slade, S. Connors, R. van Diemen, M. Ferrat, E. Haughey, S. Luz, S. Neogi, M. Pathak, J. Petzold, J. Portugal Pereira, P. Vyas, E. Huntley, K. Kissick, M. Belkacemi, J. Malley, (eds.)]. In press.
130. ^ Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (July 2011). "Climate trends and global crop production since 1980". Science. 333 (6042): 616–620. Bibcode:2011Sci...333..616L. doi:10.1126/science.1204531. PMID 21551030. S2CID 19177121.
131. ^ Gollin, Douglas; Hansen, Casper Worm; Wingender, Asger Mose (2021). "Two Blades of Grass: The Impact of the Green Revolution". Journal of Political Economy. 129 (8): 2344–2384. doi:10.1086/714444. ISSN 0022-3808. S2CID 236929281.
132. ^ Malik, Arunima; Li, Mengyu; Lenzen, Manfred; Fry, Jacob; Liyanapathirana, Navoda; Beyer, Kathleen; Boylan, Sinead; Lee, Amanda; Raubenheimer, David; Geschke, Arne; Prokopenko, Mikhail (18 August 2022). "Impacts of climate change and extreme weather on food supply chains cascade across sectors and regions in Australia". Nature Food. 3 (8): 631–643. doi:10.1038/s43016-022-00570-3. PMID 37118599. S2CID 251685457.
133. ^ Conway, Gordon (1998). The doubly green revolution: food for all in the twenty-first century. Ithaca, NY: Comstock Pub. ISBN 978-0-8014-8610-4. Ch. 4
134. ^ a b Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d’Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk (16 December 2013). "Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 111 (9): 3274–3279. doi:10.1073/pnas.1222465110. PMC 3948295. PMID 24344285.
135. ^ Schneider SH (2007). "19.3.1 Introduction to Table 19.1". In Parry ML, et al. (eds.). Chapter 19: Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and the Risk from Climate Change. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press (CUP): Cambridge, UK: Print version: CUP. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7. Archived from the original on 12 March 2013. Retrieved 4 May 2011.
136. ^ a b c IPCC (2007). "Summary for Policymakers: C. Current knowledge about future impacts". In Parry ML, et al. (eds.). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. Archived from the original on 2 November 2018. Retrieved 6 March 2022.
137. ^ Challinor AJ, Watson J, Lobell DB, Howden SM, Smith DR, Chhetri N (2014). "A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation" (PDF). Nature Climate Change. 4 (4): 287–291. Bibcode:2014NatCC...4..287C. doi:10.1038/nclimate2153. ISSN 1758-678X.
138. ^ McKie, Robin (16 July 2017). "Maize, rice, wheat: alarm at rising climate risk to vital crops". The Observer. Retrieved 30 July 2023.
139. ^ Wing, Ian Sue; De Cian, Enrica; Mistry, Malcolm N. (5 June 2021). "Global vulnerability of crop yields to climate change". Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. 109. Bibcode:2021JEEM..10902462W. doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102462. hdl:10278/3740492.
140. ^ a b c d e Jägermeyr, Jonas; Müller, Christoph; Ruane, Alex C.; Elliott, Joshua; Balkovic, Juraj; Castillo, Oscar; Faye, Babacar; Foster, Ian; Folberth, Christian; Franke, James A.; Fuchs, Kathrin; Guarin, Jose R.; Heinke, Jens; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Iizumi, Toshichika; Jain, Atul K.; Kelly, David; Khabarov, Nikolay; Lange, Stefan; Lin, Tzu-Shun; Liu, Wenfeng; Mialyk, Oleksandr; Minoli, Sara; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Okada, Masashi; Phillips, Meridel; Porter, Cheryl; Rabin, Sam S.; Scheer, Clemens; Schneider, Julia M.; Schyns, Joep F.; Skalsky, Rastislav; Smerald, Andrew; Stella, Tommaso; Stephens, Haynes; Webber, Heidi; Zabel, Florian; Rosenzweig, Cynthia (1 November 2021). "Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models". Nature Food. 2 (11): 873–885. doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y. PMID 37117503. S2CID 240490490.
141. ^ Hausfather, Zeke; Peters, Glen (29 January 2020). "Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading". Nature. 577 (7792): 618–20. Bibcode:2020Natur.577..618H. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3. PMID 31996825.
142. ^ Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B.; et al. (29 August 2017). "Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 114 (35): 9326–9331. Bibcode:2017PNAS..114.9326Z. doi:10.1073/pnas.1701762114. PMC 5584412. PMID 28811375.
143. ^ Iizumi, Toshichika; Furuya, Jun; Shen, Zhihong; Kim, Wonsik; Okada, Masashi; et al. (10 August 2017). "Responses of crop yield growth to global temperature and socioeconomic changes". Scientific Reports. 7 (1): 7800. Bibcode:2017NatSR...7.7800I. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-08214-4. PMC 5552729. PMID 28798370.
144. ^ Welch, Jarrod R.; Vincent, Jeffrey R.; Auffhammer, Maximilian; Moya, Piedad F.; Dobermann, Achim; Dawe, David (9 August 2010). "Rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia exhibit large but opposing sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 107 (33): 14562–14567. doi:10.1073/pnas.1001222107. PMC 2930450. PMID 20696908.
145. ^ Black, R. (9 August 2010). "Rice yields falling under global warming". BBC News: Science & Environment. Archived from the original on 5 April 2018. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
146. ^ Singh, S.K. (2016). "Climate Change: Impact on Indian Agriculture & its Mitigation". Journal of Basic and Applied Engineering Research. 3 (10): 857–859.
147. ^ Rao, Prakash; Patil, Y. (2017). Reconsidering the Impact of Climate Change on Global Water Supply, Use, and Management. IGI Global. p. 330\. ISBN 978-1-5225-1047-5.
148. ^ Spaggiari, Ottavia (29 February 2024). "Risotto crisis: the fight to save Italy's beloved dish from extinction". The Guardian.
149. ^ Nazari M, Mirgol B, Salehi H (20 December 2021). "Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies for Rainfed Wheat in Contrasting Climatic Regions of Iran". Frontiers in Agronomy. 3: 806146. doi:10.3389/fagro.2021.806146. ISSN 2673-3218.
150. ^ Agnolucci, Paolo; Rapti, Chrysanthi; Alexander, Peter; De Lipsis, Vincenzo; Holland, Robert A.; Eigenbrod, Felix; Ekins, Paul (September 2020). "Impacts of rising temperatures and farm management practices on global yields of 18 crops". Nature Food. 1 (9): 562–571. doi:10.1038/s43016-020-00148-x. hdl:20.500.11820/683ec46f-f944-460f-9b71-8cc6ae1872cf. ISSN 2662-1355. PMID 37128016. S2CID 229528768.
151. ^ Proctor, Jonathan; Rigden, Angela; Chan, Duo; Huybers, Peter (19 September 2022). "More accurate specification of water supply shows its importance for global crop production". Nature Food. 3 (9): 753–763. doi:10.1038/s43016-022-00592-x. PMID 37118152. S2CID 252376550.
152. ^ Hummel M, Hallahan BF, Brychkova G, Ramirez-Villegas J, Guwela V, Chataika B, et al. (November 2018). "Reduction in nutritional quality and growing area suitability of common bean under climate change induced drought stress in Africa". Scientific Reports. 8 (1): 16187. Bibcode:2018NatSR...816187H. doi:10.1038/s41598-018-33952-4. PMC 6212502. PMID 30385766.
153. ^ Gervais, Taylor; Creelman, Alexa; Li, Xiu-Qing; Bizimungu, Benoit; De Koeyer, David; Dahal, Keshav (12 August 2021). "Potato Response to Drought Stress: Physiological and Growth Basis". Frontiers in Plant Science. 12. doi:10.3389/fpls.2021.698060. PMC 8387673. PMID 34456939.
154. ^ "Climate change and potatoes: The risks, impacts and opportunities for UK potato production" (PDF). Cranfield Water Science Institute. Archived from the original (PDF) on 10 September 2012. Retrieved 7 November 2012.
155. ^ a b c d Haverkort, A.J.; Verhagen, A. (October 2008). "Climate Change and Its Repercussions for the Potato Supply Chain". Potato Research. 51 (3–4): 223–237. doi:10.1007/s11540-008-9107-0. S2CID 22794078.
156. ^ "Crop Water Information: Potato". FAO Water Development and Management Unit. Retrieved 7 November 2012.
157. ^ Daccache, A.; Keay, C.; Jones, R. J. A.; Weatherhead, E. K.; Stalham, M. A.; Knox, J. W. (2012). "Climate change and land suitability for potato production in England and Wales: impacts and adaptation". The Journal of Agricultural Science. 150 (2): 161–177. doi:10.1017/S0021859611000839. hdl:1826/8188. ISSN 0021-8596.
158. ^ a b Hijmans, Robert J. (2003). "The Effect of Climate Change on Global Potato Production". American Journal of Potato Research. 80 (4): 271–280. doi:10.1007/bf02855363. S2CID 3355406.
159. ^ Levy, D.; Veilleux, R.E. (2007). "Adaptation of Potato to High Temperatures and Salinity A Review". American Journal of Potato Research. 84 (6): 487–506. doi:10.1007/bf02987885. S2CID 602971.
160. ^ "Climate change and potatoes: The risks, impacts and opportunities for UK potato production" (PDF). Cranfield Water Science Institute. Archived from the original (PDF) on 10 September 2012. Retrieved 7 November 2012.
161. ^ Chloupek O, Hrstkova P, Schweigert P (February 2004). "Yield and its stability, crop diversity, adaptability and response to climate change, weather and fertilisation over 75 years in the Czech Republic in comparison to some European countries". Field Crops Research. 85 (2–3): 167–190. Bibcode:2004FCrRe..85..167C. doi:10.1016/S0378-4290(03)00162-X.
162. ^ Fraga H, Malheiro AC, Moutinho-Pereira J, Santos JA (February 2014). "Climate factors driving wine production in the Portuguese Minho region". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 15 (185): 26–36. Bibcode:2014AgFM..185...26F. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.11.003.
163. ^ Gladstones JS (2016). Viticulture and Environment: a study of the effects of environment on grapegrowing and wine qualities, with emphasis on present and future areas for growing winegrape in Australia (Second ed.). Tanunda, S. Aust.: Trivinum Press. ISBN 978-0-9945016-1-5.
164. ^ Fraga H, Santos JA, Malheiro AC, Oliveira AA, Moutinho-Pereira J, Jones GV (January 2016). "Climatic suitability of Portuguese grapevine varieties and climate change adaptation". International Journal of Climatology. 36 (1): 1–2. Bibcode:2016IJCli..36....1F. doi:10.1002/joc.4325. S2CID 140186551.
165. ^ Grzeskowiak L, Costantini L, Lorenzi S, Grando MS (November 2013). "Candidate loci for phenology and fruitfulness contributing to the phenotypic variability observed in grapevine". Theoretical and Applied Genetics. 126 (11): 2763–76. doi:10.1007/s00122-013-2170-1. PMC 3825586. PMID 23918063.
166. ^ a b Fraga H, García de Cortázar Atauri I, Malheiro AC, Santos JA (November 2016). "Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe". Global Change Biology. 22 (11): 3774–3788. Bibcode:2016GCBio..22.3774F. doi:10.1111/gcb.13382. PMID 27254813. S2CID 22810514.
167. ^ Kenny GJ, Harrison PA (January 1992). "The effects of climate variability and change on grape suitability in Europe". Journal of Wine Research. 3 (3): 163–183. doi:10.1080/09571269208717931.
168. ^ Kovacs E, Kopecsko Z, Puskas J (2014). "The Impact of Climate Change on Wine Regions of the Western Part of the Carpathian Basin". Proceedings of University of West Hungary Savaria Campus XX. Natural Sciences 15. Szombathely: 71–89.
169. ^ a b Godber, Olivia F.; Wall, Richard (1 April 2014). "Livestock and food security: vulnerability to population growth and climate change". Global Change Biology. 20 (10): 3092–3102. Bibcode:2014GCBio..20.3092G. doi:10.1111/gcb.12589. PMC 4282280. PMID 24692268.
170. ^ "FAOStat". Archived from the original on 20 October 2016. Retrieved 12 June 2023.
171. ^ Rasmussen, Laura Vang; Hall, Charlotte; Vansant, Emilie C.; Braber, Bowie den; Olesen, Rasmus Skov (17 September 2021). "Rethinking the approach of a global shift toward plant-based diets". One Earth. 4 (9): 1201–1204. Bibcode:2021OEart...4.1201R. doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2021.08.018. S2CID 239376124.
172. ^ Liu, Weihang; Zhou, Junxiong; Ma, Yuchi; Chen, Shuo; Luo, Yuchuan (3 February 2024). "Unequal impact of climate warming on meat yields of global cattle farming". Communications Earth and Environment. 5 (1): 65. Bibcode:2024ComEE...5...65L. doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01232-x.
173. ^ a b Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Yokohata, Tokuta; Masui, Toshihiko (29 January 2016). "Economic implications of climate change impacts on human health through undernourishment". Climatic Change. 136 (2): 189–202. Bibcode:2016ClCh..136..189H. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1606-4.
174. ^ Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Garnett, Tara; Godfray, Charles J; Gollin, Douglas; Rayner, Mike; Ballon, Paola; Scarborough, Peter (2 March 2016). "Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study". The Lancet. 387 (10031): 1937–1946. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(15)01156-3. PMID 26947322. S2CID 41851492.
175. ^ Myers SS, Smith MR, Guth S, Golden CD, Vaitla B, Mueller ND, et al. (March 2017). "Climate Change and Global Food Systems: Potential Impacts on Food Security and Undernutrition". Annual Review of Public Health. 38 (1): 259–277. doi:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031816-044356. PMID 28125383.
176. ^ Parry ML (2007). "Box TS.2. Communication of uncertainty in the Working Group II Fourth Assessment". In Parry ML, et al. (eds.). Technical summary. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press (CUP): Cambridge, UK: Print version: CUP. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7. Archived from the original on 8 June 2011. Retrieved 4 May 2011.
177. ^ Easterling WE (2007). "Executive summary". In Parry ML, et al. (eds.). Chapter 5: Food, Fibre, and Forest Products. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7. Archived from the original on 12 March 2013. Retrieved 9 January 2013.
178. ^ Easterling WE (2007). "5.6.5 Food security and vulnerability". In Parry ML, et al. (eds.). Chapter 5: Food, Fibre, and Forest Products. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7. Archived from the original on 2 November 2018. Retrieved 25 June 2011.
179. ^ Heinicke, Stefanie; Frieler, Katja; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Mengel, Matthias (18 March 2022). "Global gridded crop models underestimate yield responses to droughts and heatwaves". Environmental Research Letters. 17 (4): 044026. Bibcode:2022ERL....17d4026H. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac592e.
180. ^ a b Lyon, Christopher; Saupe, Erin E.; Smith, Christopher J.; Hill, Daniel J.; Beckerman, Andrew P.; Stringer, Lindsay C.; Marchant, Robert; McKay, James; Burke, Ariane; O'Higgins, Paul; Dunhill, Alexander M.; Allen, Bethany J.; Riel-Salvatore, Julien; Aze, Tracy (2021). "Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100". Global Change Biology. 28 (2): 349–361. doi:10.1111/gcb.15871. hdl:20.500.11850/521222. ISSN 1365-2486. PMID 34558764. S2CID 237616583.
181. ^ a b c d'Amour, Christopher Bren; Wenz, Leonie; Kalkuh, Matthias; Steckel, Jan Christoph; Creutzig, Felix (29 February 2016). "Teleconnected food supply shocks". Environmental Research Letters. 11 (3): 035007. Bibcode:2016ERL....11c5007B. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035007.
182. ^ Caparas, Monica; Zobel, Zachary; Castanho, Andrea D A; Schwalm, Christopher R (21 September 2021). "Increasing risks of crop failure and water scarcity in global breadbaskets by 2030". Environmental Research Letters. 16 (10). Bibcode:2021ERL....16j4013C. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac22c1.
183. ^ Mehrabi, Zia; Ramankutty, Navin (15 April 2019). "Synchronized failure of global crop production". Nature Ecology & Evolution. 3 (5): 780–786. Bibcode:2019NatEE...3..780M. doi:10.1038/s41559-019-0862-x. hdl:2429/70224. PMID 30988491.
184. ^ Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Wakatsuki, Hitomi; Nelson, Gerald C. (20 October 2022). "Evidence for and projection of multi-breadbasket failure caused by climate change". Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. 58. Bibcode:2022COES...5801217H. doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2022.101217. S2CID 253056383.
185. ^ Kornhuber, Kai; Coumou, Dim; Vogel, Elisabeth; Lesk, Corey; Donges, Jonathan F.; Lehmann, Jascha; Horton, Radley M. (9 December 2019). "Amplified Rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions". Nature Climate Change. 10 (1): 48–53. Bibcode:2019NatCC..10...48K. doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0637-z. hdl:1871.1/08ff0c33-fdd1-41e7-8a08-20f528a5a999. S2CID 208957516.
186. ^ a b Kang, Suchul; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B. (31 July 2018). "North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation". Nature Communications. 9 (1): 3528. Bibcode:2023NatCo..14.3528K. doi:10.1038/s41467-023-38906-7. PMC 10319847. PMID 37402712.
187. ^ Kristjanson P, Neufeldt H, Gassner A, Mango J, Kyazze FB, Desta S, et al. (2012). "Are food insecure smallholder households making changes in their farming practices? Evidence from East Africa". Food Security. 4 (3): 381–397. doi:10.1007/s12571-012-0194-z.
188. ^ Gale J, Olmos S (4 September 2021). "When Hard Jobs Turn Hazardous". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 4 September 2021.
189. ^ a b c d Beddington JR, Asaduzzaman M, Clark ME, Bremauntz AF, Guillou MD, Jahn MM, et al. (2012). "The role for scientists in tackling food insecurity and climate change". Agriculture & Food Security. 1 (10): 10. Bibcode:2012AgFS....1...10B. doi:10.1186/2048-7010-1-10.
190. ^ Mondal, Sanjit Kumar; Su, Buda; Huang, Jinlong; Zhai, Jianqing; Wang, Guojie; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Wang, Yanjun; Jiang, Shan; Jiang, Han; Zhou, Jian; Jiang, Tong (3 May 2024). "Climate Change Will Aggravate South Asian Cropland Exposure to Drought by the Middle of 21st Century". Earth's Future. 12 (5): e2023EF003872. Bibcode:2024EaFut..1203872M. doi:10.1029/2023EF003872.
191. ^ a b OECD/FAO (2016). OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016‑2025 (PDF). OECD Publishing. pp. 59–61. ISBN 978-92-64-25323-0.
192. ^ Läderach, Peter; Martinez-Valle, Armando; Bourgoin, Clement; Parker, Louis (27 March 2019). "Vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change: The development of a pan-tropical Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment to inform sub-national decision making". PLOS ONE. 14 (3): e0213641. Bibcode:2019PLoSO..1413641P. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0213641. PMC 6436735. PMID 30917146.
193. ^ Parry, M. L.; et al., eds. (2007). "Summary for Policymakers: C. Current knowledge about future impacts". Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. Archived from the original on 2 November 2018. Retrieved 13 December 2023.
194. ^ a b c Dhanush, D.; Bett, B. K.; Boone, R. B.; Grace, D.; Kinyangi, J.; Lindahl, J. F.; Mohan, C. V.; Ramírez Villegas, J.; Robinson, T. P.; Rosenstock, T. S.; Smith, J. (2015). "Impact of climate change on African agriculture: focus on pests and diseases". CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).
195. ^ SOFI 2019 – The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 2021. doi:10.4060/CB4474EN. ISBN 978-92-5-134325-8. S2CID 241785130.
196. ^ Dinku, Tufa. "Overcoming challenges in the availability and use of climate data in Africa". ICT Update CTA. Archived from the original on 1 November 2022. Retrieved 13 December 2023.
197. ^ "Supporting Sub-Saharan Africa's Farmers – Bayer – Crop Science". www.cropscience.bayer.com. Retrieved 15 August 2019.
198. ^ Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J (November 2014). "Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review". Global Change Biology. 20 (11): 3313–3328. Bibcode:2014GCBio..20.3313T. doi:10.1111/gcb.12581. PMC 4258067. PMID 24668802.
199. ^ Sabiiti, Geoffrey; Ininda, Joseph Mwalichi; Ogallo, Laban; Opijah, Franklin; Nimusiima, Alex; Otieno, George; Ddumba, Saul Daniel; Nanteza, Jamiat; Basalirwa, Charles (2016). "Nanteza and C. Basalirwa. 2016. Empirical relationship between banana yields and climate variability over Uganda" (PDF). Journal of Environmental & Agricultural Sciences. 7: 3–13.
200. ^ a b Sabiiti, Geoffrey; Ininda, Joseph Mwalichi; Ogallo, Laban Ayieko; Ouma, Jully; Artan, Guleid; Basalirwa, Charles; Opijah, Franklin; Nimusiima, Alex; Ddumba, Saul Daniel; Mwesigwa, Jasper Batureine; Otieno, George; Nanteza, Jamiat (2018). "Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change: Suitability of Banana Crop Production to Future Climate Change over Uganda". Limits to Climate Change Adaptation. Climate Change Management. pp. 175–190. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-64599-5_10. ISBN 978-3-319-64598-8.
201. ^ "A1 – 1 Sustainability, food security and climate change: three intertwined challenges". Climate-Smart Agriculture Sourcebook. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Retrieved 15 August 2019.
202. ^ Shah, Hassnain; Hellegers, Petra; Siderius, Christian (1 January 2021). "Climate risk to agriculture: A synthesis to define different types of critical moments". Climate Risk Management. 34: 100378. doi:10.1016/j.crm.2021.100378. ISSN 2212-0963.
203. ^ a b Rosane, Olivia (27 January 2020). "Worst Locust Swarm to Hit East Africa in Decades Linked to Climate Crisis". Ecowatch. Retrieved 6 February 2020.
204. ^ Mendelsohn, Robert (1 April 2014). "The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Asia". Journal of Integrative Agriculture. 13 (4): 660–665. Bibcode:2014JIAgr..13..660M. doi:10.1016/S2095-3119(13)60701-7. ISSN 2095-3119.
205. ^ Daloz AS, Rydsaa JH, Hodnebrog Ø, Sillmann J, van Oort B, Mohr CW, et al. (2021). "Direct and indirect impacts of climate change on wheat yield in the Indo-Gangetic plain in India". Journal of Agriculture and Food Research. 4: 100132. doi:10.1016/j.jafr.2021.100132. hdl:10037/21611. S2CID 233841865.
206. ^ Chowdhury QM, Hossain M, Ahmed J, Shykat CA, Islam MS, Hasan M (2016). "Impact of Climate Change on Livestock in Bangladesh: A Review of What We Know and What We Need to Know" (PDF). American Journal of Agricultural Science Engineering and Technology. 3 (2): 18–25. doi:10.54536/ajaset.v3i2.40. S2CID 248796073. Archived from the original (PDF) on 28 July 2020. Retrieved 6 March 2022 - via e-palli.
207. ^ a b Hennessy K, et al. (2007). "Chapter 11: Australia and New Zealand: Executive summary". In Parry ML, et al. (eds.). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. Archived from the original on 8 August 2018.
208. ^ "Climate change threatens future of farming in Europe — European Environment Agency". www.eea.europa.eu.
209. ^ World Bank. 2021. Ukraine: Building Climate Resilience in Agriculture and Forestry. 151p.https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/893671643276478711/pdf/Ukraine-Building-Climate-Resilience-in-Agriculture-and-Forestry.pdf
210. ^ a b c d e Jones P, Thornton P (April 2003). "The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055". Global Environmental Change. 13 (1): 51–59. Bibcode:2003GEC....13...51J. doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00090-0.
211. ^ a b c d e f g Baethgen WE (1997). "Vulnerability of the agricultural sector of Latin America to climate change" (PDF). Climate Research. 9: 1–7. Bibcode:1997ClRes...9....1B. doi:10.3354/cr009001.
212. ^ Mendelsohn R, Dinar A (1 August 1999). "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Developing Countries: Does Adaptation Matter?". The World Bank Research Observer. 14 (2): 277–293. doi:10.1093/wbro/14.2.277.
213. ^ "What's Really Driving Immigrants North from Central America". The State of Things (Podcast). 22 February 2019. Retrieved 1 June 2021.
214. ^ Green L, Schmook B, Radel C, Mardero S (March 2020). "Living Smallholder Vulnerability: The Everyday Experience of Climate Change in Calakmul, Mexico". Journal of Latin American Geography. 19 (2). University of Texas Press: 110–142. doi:10.1353/lag.2020.0028. S2CID 216383920.
215. ^ Smith A. "Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Table of Events – National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)".
216. ^ Perry LG, Andersen DC, Reynolds LV, Nelson SM, Shafroth PB (2012). "Vulnerability of riparian ecosystems to elevated CO2 and climate change in arid and semiarid western North America" (PDF). Global Change Biology. 18 (3): 821–842. Bibcode:2012GCBio..18..821P. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02588.x. S2CID 52267708. Archived from the original (PDF) on 26 May 2013.
217. ^ Qian B, Zhang X, Smith W, Grant B, Jing Q, Cannon AJ, et al. (1 July 2019). "Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C and 3.0 °C". Environmental Research Letters. 14 (7): 074005. Bibcode:2019ERL....14g4005Q. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab17fb. ISSN 1748-9326. S2CID 159213414.
218. ^ Oppenheimer M, Campos M, Warren R, Birkmann J, Luber G, O'Neill B, Takahashi K (2014). "Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities" (PDF). In Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B (eds.). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. pp. 1039–1099. "Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change"
219. ^ Niles, Meredith T.; Ahuja, Richie; Barker, Todd; Esquivel, Jimena; Gutterman, Sophie; Heller, Martin C.; Mango, Nelson; Portner, Diana; Raimond, Rex; Tirado, Cristina; Vermeulen, Sonja (June 2018). "Climate change mitigation beyond agriculture: a review of food system opportunities and implications". Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems. 33 (3): 297–308. doi:10.1017/S1742170518000029. ISSN 1742-1705. S2CID 89605314.
220. ^ Anyiam, P. N.; Adimuko, G. C.; Nwamadi, C. P.; Guibunda, F. A.; Kamale, Y. J. (31 December 2021). "Sustainable Food System Transformation in a Changing Climate". Nigeria Agricultural Journal. 52 (3): 105–115. ISSN 0300-368X.
221. ^ Nelson GC, Rosegrant MW, Koo J, Robertson R, Sulser T, Zhu T, et al. (October 2009). Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation (PDF) (Report). Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. Archived from the original (PDF) on 5 May 2016. Retrieved 12 August 2016.
222. ^ Hertel TW, Rosch SD (June 2010). "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Poverty" (PDF). Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. 32 (3): 355–385. doi:10.1093/aepp/ppq016. hdl:10986/3949. S2CID 55848822.
223. ^ Jennings, Paul A. (February 2008). "Dealing with Climate Change at the Local Level" (PDF). Chemical Engineering Progress. 104 (2). American Institute of Chemical Engineers: 40–44. Archived from the original (PDF) on 1 December 2008. Retrieved 29 February 2008.
224. ^ Falkenmark, Malin; Rockstrom, Johan; Rockström, Johan (2004). Balancing Water for Humans and Nature: The New Approach in Ecohydrology. Earthscan. pp. 67–68. ISBN 978-1-85383-926-9.
225. ^ Berthouly-Salazar, Cécile; Vigouroux, Yves; Billot, Claire; Scarcelli, Nora; Jankowski, Frédérique; Kane, Ndjido Ardo; Barnaud, Adeline; Burgarella, Concetta (2019). "Adaptive Introgression: An Untapped Evolutionary Mechanism for Crop Adaptation". Frontiers in Plant Science. 10: 4. doi:10.3389/fpls.2019.00004. ISSN 1664-462X. PMC 6367218. PMID 30774638.
226. ^ "Diverse water sources key to food security: report". Reuters. 6 September 2010. Retrieved 8 February 2023.
227. ^ "Adapting to climate change to sustain food security". International Livestock Research Institute. 16 November 2020.
228. ^ Nabuurs, G-J.; Mrabet, R.; Abu Hatab, A.; Bustamante, M.; et al. "Chapter 7: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU)" (PDF). Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. p. 750\. doi:10.1017/9781009157926.009..
229. ^ Steinfeld H, Gerber P, Wassenaar T, Castel V, Rosales M, de Haan C (2006). Livestock's long shadow: environmental issues and options (PDF). Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN. ISBN 978-92-5-105571-7. Archived from the original (PDF) on 25 June 2008.
230. ^ FAO (2020). Emissions due to agriculture. Global, regional and country trends 2000–2018 (PDF) (Report). FAOSTAT Analytical Brief Series. Vol. 18\. Rome. p. 2\. ISSN 2709-0078.
231. ^ Section 4.2: Agriculture's current contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, in: HLPE (June 2012). Food security and climate change. A report by the High Level Panel of Experts (HLPE) on Food Security and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security. Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. pp. 67–69. Archived from the original on 12 December 2014.
232. ^ Sarkodie, Samuel A.; Ntiamoah, Evans B.; Li, Dongmei (2019). "Panel heterogeneous distribution analysis of trade and modernized agriculture on CO2 emissions: The role of renewable and fossil fuel energy consumption". Natural Resources Forum. 43 (3): 135–153. doi:10.1111/1477-8947.12183. ISSN 1477-8947.2+emissions:+The+role+of+renewable+and+fossil+fuel+energy+consumption&rft.volume=43&rft.issue=3&rft.pages=135-153&rft.date=2019&rft_id=info:doi/10.1111/1477-8947.12183&rft.issn=1477-8947&rft.aulast=Sarkodie&rft.aufirst=Samuel+A.&rft.au=Ntiamoah,+Evans+B.&rft.au=Li,+Dongmei&rft_id=https://doi.org/10.1111%2F1477-8947.12183&rfr_id=info:sid/en.wikipedia.org:Effects+of+climate+change+on+agriculture" class="Z3988">
233. ^ "Carbon emissions from fertilizers could be reduced by as much as 80% by 2050". Science Daily. University of Cambridge. Retrieved 17 February 2023.
234. ^ "How livestock farming affects the environment". www.downtoearth.org.in. Retrieved 10 February 2022.

## External links

[edit]

* Climate change (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)
* Climate adaptation & mitigation (CGIAR)

* v
* t
* e

Human impact on the environment

General|

* Anthropocene
* Ecological footprint
* Environmental impact assessment
* Environmental issues
* list of issues
* Human impact
* on marine life
* List of global issues
* Impact assessment
* Planetary boundaries
* Social ecology (ethics)

Causes|

* Agriculture
* animal agriculture
* cannabis cultivation
* irrigation
* meat production
* cocoa production
* palm oil
* (US)
* Bitcoin
* Corporate behavior
* Deforestation and climate change
* Energy industry
* biofuels
* biodiesel
* coal
* electricity
* energy
* fashion
* fracking (US)
* nuclear power
* oil shale
* petroleum
* reservoirs
* transport
* Genetic pollution
* Environmental crime
* Explosives
* Industrialisation
* Land use
* Manufacturing
* cleaning agents
* concrete
* fashion
* plastics
* nanotechnology
* paint
* paper
* pesticides
* pharmaceuticals and personal care
* Marine life
* fishing
* fishing down the food web
* marine pollution
* overfishing
* Mining
* Overconsumption
* Overdrafting
* Overexploitation
* Overgrazing
* Particulates
* Pollution
* Quarrying
* Reservoirs
* Tourism
* Transport
* aviation
* rail
* roads
* shipping
* Urbanization
* urban sprawl
* War

Effects|

* Biodiversity threats
* biodiversity loss
* decline in amphibian populations
* decline in insect populations
* Climate change
* runaway climate change
* in the United States
* Deforestation
* Defaunation
* Desertification
* Ecocide
* Ecological crisis
* Effects of climate change on agriculture
* Effects of climate change on livestock
* Environmental insecurity
* Environmental issues in the United States
* Coral reefs
* Externality
* Forest dieback
* Environmental degradation
* Erosion
* Freshwater cycle
* Greenhouse gas emissions
* Habitat destruction
* Holocene extinction
* Nitrogen cycle
* Land degradation
* Land consumption
* Land surface effects on climate
* Loss and damage
* Loss of green belts
* Phosphorus cycle
* Ocean acidification
* Ozone depletion
* Resource depletion
* Tropical cyclones and climate change
* Water degradation
* Water pollution
* Water scarcity

Mitigation|

* Alternative fuel vehicle propulsion
* Birth control
* Cleaner production
* Climate engineering
* Community resilience
* Cultured meat
* Decoupling
* Ecological engineering
* Environmental engineering
* Environmental mitigation
* Industrial ecology
* Mitigation banking
* Organic farming
* Recycling
* Reforestation
* urban
* Restoration ecology
* Sustainability
* Sustainable consumption
* Waste minimization

* Commons
* Category
* by country
* assessment
* mitigation

* v
* t
* e

Climate change

Overview

* Causes of climate change
* Effects of climate change
* Climate change mitigation
* Climate change adaptation
* By country and region

Causes

| Overview|

* Climate system
* Greenhouse effect (Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere)
* Scientific consensus on climate change

|

Sources|

* Deforestation
* Fossil fuel
* Greenhouse gases
* Greenhouse gas emissions
* Carbon accounting
* Carbon footprint
* Carbon leakage
* from agriculture
* from wetlands
* World energy supply and consumption

History

* History of climate change policy and politics
* History of climate change science
* Svante Arrhenius
* James Hansen
* Charles David Keeling
* United Nations Climate Change conferences
* Years in climate change
* 2019
* 2020
* 2021
* 2022
* 2023
* 2024

Effects and issues

| Physical|

* Abrupt climate change
* Anoxic event
* Arctic methane emissions
* Arctic sea ice decline
* Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
* Drought
* Extreme weather
* Flood
* Coastal flooding
* Heat wave
* Marine
* Urban heat island
* Oceans
* acidification
* deoxygenation
* heat content
* sea surface temperature
* stratification
* temperature
* Ozone depletion
* Permafrost thaw
* Retreat of glaciers since 1850
* Sea level rise
* Season creep
* Tipping points in the climate system
* Tropical cyclones
* Water cycle
* Wildfires

|

Flora and fauna|

* Biomes
* Mass mortality event
* Birds
* Extinction risk
* Forest dieback
* Invasive species
* Marine life
* Plant biodiversity

Social and economic|

* Agriculture
* Livestock
* United States
* Children
* Cities
* Civilizational collapse
* Crime
* Depopulation of settlements
* Destruction of cultural heritage
* Disability
* Economic impacts
* U.S. insurance industry
* Fisheries
* Gender
* Health
* Mental health
* Human rights
* Indigenous peoples
* Infectious diseases
* Migration
* Poverty
* Psychological impacts
* Security and conflict
* Urban flooding
* Water scarcity
* Water security

By country and region|

* Africa
* Americas
* Antarctica
* Arctic
* Asia
* Australia
* Caribbean
* Europe
* Middle East and North Africa
* Small island countries
* by individual country

Mitigation

| Economics and finance|

* Carbon budget
* Carbon emission trading
* Carbon offsets and credits
* Gold Standard (carbon offset standard)
* Carbon price
* Carbon tax
* Climate debt
* Climate finance
* Climate risk insurance
* Co-benefits of climate change mitigation
* Economics of climate change mitigation
* Fossil fuel divestment
* Green Climate Fund
* Low-carbon economy
* Net zero emissions

|

Energy|

* Carbon capture and storage
* Energy transition
* Fossil fuel phase-out
* Nuclear power
* Renewable energy
* Sustainable energy

Preserving and enhancing
carbon sinks|

* Blue carbon
* Carbon dioxide removal
* Carbon sequestration
* Direct air capture
* Carbon farming
* Climate-smart agriculture
* Forest management
* afforestation
* forestry for carbon sequestration
* REDD and REDD+
* reforestation
* Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF and AFOLU)
* Nature-based solutions

Personal|

* Individual action on climate change
* Plant-based diet

Society and adaptation

| Society|

* Business action
* Climate action
* Climate emergency declaration
* Climate movement
* School Strike for Climate
* Denial
* Ecological grief
* Governance
* Justice
* Litigation
* Politics
* Public opinion
* Women

|

Adaptation|

* Adaptation strategies on the German coast
* Adaptive capacity
* Disaster risk reduction
* Ecosystem-based adaptation
* Flood control
* Loss and damage
* Managed retreat
* Nature-based solutions
* Resilience
* Risk
* Vulnerability
* The Adaptation Fund
* National Adaptation Programme of Action

Communication|

* Climate Change Performance Index
* Climate crisis (term)
* Climate spiral
* Education
* Media coverage
* Popular culture depictions
* art
* fiction
* video games
* Warming stripes

International agreements|

* Glasgow Climate Pact
* Kyoto Protocol
* Paris Agreement
* Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement
* Nationally determined contributions
* Sustainable Development Goal 13
* United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Background and theory

| Measurements|

* Global surface temperature
* Instrumental temperature record
* Proxy
* Satellite temperature measurement

|

Theory|

* Albedo
* Carbon cycle
* atmospheric
* biologic
* oceanic
* permafrost
* Carbon sink
* Climate sensitivity
* Climate variability and change
* Cloud feedback
* Cloud forcing
* Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis
* Cryosphere
* Earth's energy budget
* Extreme event attribution
* Feedbacks
* Global warming potential
* Illustrative model of greenhouse effect on climate change
* Orbital forcing
* Radiative forcing

Research and modelling|

* Climate change scenario
* Climate model
* Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
* Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
* IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
* Paleoclimatology
* Representative Concentration Pathway
* Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

* Climate change portal
* Category
* Glossary
* Index

* v
* t
* e

Agriculture

* Outline
* History
* Index

Occupations|

* Agriculturist
* Agricultural Engineer
* Farmer
* Farm worker
* Herder

General|

* Agribusiness
* Agricultural cooperative
* Agricultural supplies
* Agricultural science
* Agricultural engineering
* Agricultural technology
* Digital
* Biotechnology
* Agroforestry
* Agronomy
* Animal husbandry
* Animal-free agriculture
* Cellular agriculture
* Contract farming
* Extensive farming
* Farm
* Farmhouse
* Feed ratio
* Free range
* Horticulture
* Intensive farming
* animals
* pigs
* crops
* Mechanised agriculture
* Organic farming
* Paludiculture
* Permaculture
* Plantation
* Polyculture
* Rice-duck farming
* Rice-fish system
* Sustainable agriculture
* Sustainable food system
* Universities and colleges
* Urban agriculture

History|

* Prehistory

* Neolithic Revolution
* Agriculture in Mesoamerica
* Austronesian expansion

* Ancient history

* Ancient Egypt
* Ancient Greece
* Ancient Rome

* Post-classical

* Agriculture in the Middle Ages
* Arab Agricultural Revolution
* Columbian exchange

* Modern history

* British Agricultural Revolution
* Green Revolution
* Organic
* Monoculture

Farming Types|

* Agrivoltaic
* Aquaculture
* Cattle
* Dairy farming
* Fur farming
* Goat farming
* Grazing
* Convertible husbandry
* Rotational grazing
* Hydroponics
* Insect farming
* Livestock
* Pasture
* Mixed
* Paddy field
* Pastoral
* Bocage
* Pig farming
* Poultry farming
* Ranch
* Orchards
* Sheep farming
* Terrace
* Wildlife farming

Environmental
impact|

* Agricultural expansion
* Agricultural pollution
* Agricultural wastewater
* Overgrazing
* Environmental impact of irrigation
* Overdrafting
* Climate change and agriculture

Categories|

* Agricultural machinery
* Agriculture by country
* Agriculture companies
* Biotechnology
* History of agriculture
* Livestock
* Meat industry
* Poultry farming
* Agriculture and the environment

Lists|

* Agriculturist profession
* Agricultural machinery
* Government ministries
* Universities and colleges

* Category
* Portal
* Commons
* Wikiproject
*[v]: View this template
*[t]: Discuss this template
*[e]: Edit this template